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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25

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NASA NTRS1999

Multi-Dimensional Quantum Tunneling and Transport Using the Density-Gradient Model

We show that quantum effects are likely to significantly degrade the performance of MOSFETs (metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor) as these devices are scaled below 100 nm channel length and 2 nm oxide thickness over the next decade. A general and computationally efficient electronic device model including quantum effects would allow us to monitor and mitigate these effects. Full quantum models are too expensive in multi-dimensions. Using a general but efficient PDE solver called PROPHET, we implemented the density-gradient (DG) quantum correction to the industry-dominant classical drift-diffusion (DD) model. The DG model efficiently includes quantum carrier profile smoothing and tunneling in multi-dimensions and for any electronic device structure. We show that the DG model reduces DD model error from as much as 50% down to a few percent in comparison to thin oxide MOS capacitance measurements. We also show the first DG simulations of gate oxide tunneling and transverse current flow in ultra-scaled MOSFETs. The advantages of rapid model implementation using the PDE solver approach will be demonstrated, as well as the applicability of the DG model to any electronic device structure.

Biegel, Bryan A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Error-Based Design Space Windowing

Windowing of design space is considered in order to reduce the bias errors due to low-order polynomial response surfaces (RS). Standard design space windowing (DSW) uses a region of interest by setting a requirement on response level and checks it by a global RS predictions over the design space. This approach, however, is vulnerable since RS modeling errors may lead to the wrong region to zoom on. The approach is modified by introducing an eigenvalue error measure based on point-to-point mean squared error criterion. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the benefit of the error-based DSW.

Papila, Melih↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS1976

Navigation accuracy analysis for the Mariner-Jupiter-Saturn 1977 mission

The results of the latest navigation capability study for the Mariner-Jupiter-Saturn 1977 mission are presented and analyzed. Predicted planet-relative and satellite-relative accuracies are given for radio only and radio plus optical approach navigation on three representative trajectories. In addition, planet-relative accuracies are given for cruise navigation on one of the trajectories. The dynamical and measurement error models used in the study are discussed, and the basic MJS77 navigation strategy is described. The navigation capability is evaluated in the light of the mission's objectives; and the variation in capability among the three trajectories is examined with regard to the effects of the major error sources and the trajectory dependent encounter geometries.

Jacobson, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation to Extract Soil Moisture Information From SMAP Observations

Statistical techniques permit the retrieval of soil moisture estimates in a model climatology while retaining the spatial and temporal signatures of the satellite observations. As a consequence, they can be used to reduce the need for localized bias correction techniques typically implemented in data assimilation (DA) systems that tend to remove some of the independent information provided by satellite observations. Here, we use a statistical neural network (NN) algorithm to retrieve SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) surface soil moisture estimates in the climatology of the NASA Catchment land surface model. Assimilating these estimates without additional bias correction is found to significantly reduce the model error and increase the temporal correlation against SMAP CalVal in situ observations over the contiguous United States. A comparison with assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques shows that the NN approach better retains the independent information provided by the SMAP observations and thus leads to larger model skill improvements during the assimilation. A comparison with the SMAP Level 4 product shows that the NN approach is able to provide comparable skill improvements and thus represents a viable assimilation approach.

D↗

NASA NTRS1986

Impact of mismodeled idle engine performance on calculation and tracking of optimal 4-D descent trajectories

Advanced flight management systems are being developed which are capable of calculating optimal 3-D and 4-D flight trajectories for arbitrary fuel and time costs. These systems require mathematical models of airplane performance in order to compute the optimal profiles. Mismodeled idle engine characteristics can result in descent trajectories requiring excessive throttle and/or speedbrake activity in order to achieve the desired end conditions. This paper evaluates the cost and fuel penalties, trajectory variations, and flight control requirements associated with typical idle engine modeling errors for a twin-jet transport airplane. Variations in idle power setting, thrust, fuel flow, and surge bleed operation were evaluated for a cruise/descent flight segment. The results of this analysis provide insight into the penalties associated with uncertainties in idle engine performance and suggest methods of modeling which minimize these penalties.

Williams, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP1) Observations: Galactic Foreground Emission

We present a new estimate of foreground emission in the WMAP data, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The new technique delivers maps of each foreground component for a variety of foreground models, error estimates of the uncertainty of each foreground component, and provides an overall goodness-of-fit measurement. The resulting foreground maps are in broad agreement with those from previous techniques used both within the collaboration and by other authors. We find that for WMAP data, a simple model with power-law synchrotron, free-free, and thermal dust components fits 90% of the sky with a reduced X(sup 2) (sub v) of 1.14. However, the model does not work well inside the Galactic plane. The addition of either synchrotron steepening or a modified spinning dust model improves the fit. This component may account for up to 14% of the total flux at Ka-band (33 GHz). We find no evidence for foreground contamination of the CMB temperature map in the 85% of the sky used for cosmological analysis.

Gold, B.↗

NASA NTRS1998

High Performance, Robust Control of Flexible Space Structures: MSFC Center Director's Discretionary Fund

Many spacecraft systems have ambitious objectives that place stringent requirements on control systems. Achievable performance is often limited because of difficulty of obtaining accurate models for flexible space structures. To achieve sufficiently high performance to accomplish mission objectives may require the ability to refine the control design model based on closed-loop test data and tune the controller based on the refined model. A control system design procedure is developed based on mixed H2/H(infinity) optimization to synthesize a set of controllers explicitly trading between nominal performance and robust stability. A homotopy algorithm is presented which generates a trajectory of gains that may be implemented to determine maximum achievable performance for a given model error bound. Examples show that a better balance between robustness and performance is obtained using the mixed H2/H(infinity) design method than either H2 or mu-synthesis control design. A second contribution is a new procedure for closed-loop system identification which refines parameters of a control design model in a canonical realization. Examples demonstrate convergence of the parameter estimation and improved performance realized by using the refined model for controller redesign. These developments result in an effective mechanism for achieving high-performance control of flexible space structures.

Whorton, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-Varying Output Delay Compensation-A Model-Free Approach and its Application on Cooperative On-Ramp Merging

This paper presents a model-free approach to compensate for time-varying output delay in networked control systems. The proposed architecture combines a model-free observer and the Smith predictor. The model-free observer estimates the current state while handling modeling errors and uncertainties of the system. The Smith predictor moves the effect of time delay outside the control closed-loop using the estimated delayed output and the actual output of the plant. The proposed method is applied to a cooperative on-ramp merging problem. First, an ultra-local model predictive control is implemented to provide a computationally efficient online speed planner agnostic to the vehicle dynamics. After that, a model-free observer is designed to estimate the current state. Finally, the proposed architecture is tested against a time-varying output delay with an upper bound of 200 milliseconds. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with improved tracking of intervehicle distance.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

NASA NTRS1976

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

Tracking system options for future altimeter satellite missions

Follow-on missions to provide continuity in the observation of the sea surface topography once the successful TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) oceanographic satellite mission has ended are discussed. Candidates include orbits which follow the ground tracks of T/P GEOSAT or ERS-1. The T/P precision ephemerides, estimated to be near 3 cm root-mean-square, demonstrate the radial orbit accuracy that can be achieved at 1300 km altitude. However, the radial orbit accuracy which can be achieved for a mission at the 800 km altitudes of GEOSAT and ERS-1 has not been established, and achieving an accuracy commensurate with T/P will pose a great challenge. This investigation focuses on the radial orbit accuracy that can be achieved for a mission in the GEOSAT orbit. Emphasis is given to characterizing the effects of force model errors on the estimated radial orbit accuracy, particularly those due to gravity and drag. The importance of global, continuous tracking of the satellite for reduction in these sources of orbit error is demonstrated with simulated GPS tracking data. A gravity tuning experiment is carried out to show how the effects of gravity error may be reduced. Assuming a GPS flight receiver with a full-sky tracking capability, the simulation results indicate that a 5 cm radial orbit accuracy for an altimeter satellite in GEOSAT orbit should be achievable during low-drag atmospheric conditions and after an acceptable tuning of the gravity model.

Davis, G. W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

NASA NTRS2021

Contact with Bennu! Flight Performance Versus Prediction of OSIRIS-REx TAG Sample Collection

The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission collected a sample from the surface of the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2020. Bennu challenged the team with a surface that was much rockier than expected, resulting in modifications to the prelaunch design of the Touch And Go (TAG) sequence. Following enhancements in onboard trajectory correction, ground-based navigation, and maneuver execution error modeling, the spacecraft was delivered to the chosen TAG site within 1 m of the target, and a sample was successfully collected on the first attempt. This paper provides a comprehensive description of all flight dynamics aspects of TAG trajectory planning and execution. It also describes hazard map generation and how that combined with error analysis results to predict the probability of safe contact before TAG and the onboard wave-off determination during TAG.

Kevin E Berry↗

NASA NTRS1986

Precise orbit determination of a geosynchronous satellite with differential very-long-baseline interferometry

The use of differential VLBI (DVLBI) to determine the orbit of a U.S. geosynchronous satellite with a position accuracy of a few meters is examined. DVLBI was employed to track the geosynchronous satellite DSCS-II; two observation channels with 2 MHz bandwidth each in a 2 GHz band were used to receive the telemetry signal of the satellite and quasar radio signals. The random observation, delay, station location, and quasar position errors are discussed. The correlation processing of the quasar and satellite signals is described. The accuracy of the estimated satellite position is evaluated using a covariance analysis. It is determined that the satellite position was estimated with an accuracy of about 4 m at the center of the observation arc. It is noted that the modeling error of the solar radiation pressure factor, ionospheric correction error, and observation error need to be corrected in order to provide more accurate orbit determinations.

Shiomi, Tadashi↗

NASA NTRS1986

Robust detection, isolation and accommodation for sensor failures

The objective is to extend the recent advances in robust control system design of multivariable systems to sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation (DIA), and estimator design. This effort provides analysis tools to quantify the trade-off between performance robustness and DIA sensitivity, which are to be used to achieve higher levels of performance robustness for given levels of DIA sensitivity. An innovations-based DIA scheme is used. Estimators, which depend upon a model of the process and process inputs and outputs, are used to generate these innovations. Thresholds used to determine failure detection are computed based on bounds on modeling errors, noise properties, and the class of failures. The applicability of the newly developed tools are demonstrated on a multivariable aircraft turbojet engine example. A new concept call the threshold selector was developed. It represents a significant and innovative tool for the analysis and synthesis of DiA algorithms. The estimators were made robust by introduction of an internal model and by frequency shaping. The internal mode provides asymptotically unbiased filter estimates.The incorporation of frequency shaping of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian cost functional modifies the estimator design to make it suitable for sensor failure DIA. The results are compared with previous studies which used thresholds that were selcted empirically. Comparison of these two techniques on a nonlinear dynamic engine simulation shows improved performance of the new method compared to previous techniques

Emami-Naeini, A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗