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DOE OSTI2024

Distributed Wind Monitoring Best Practices

Accessible performance and operational data have been identified as a key enabler for distributed wind energy industry advancement. While utility-scale wind turbines benefit from reliable and continuous supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA)-based monitoring platforms, monitoring of the U.S. fleet of distributed wind (DW) turbines has been more inconsistent, unreliable, and sometime difficult to access. Without fleet monitoring data, the industry will never understand and thus work to improve turbine under-performance and reliability issues. For the DW industry to scale up, attract investors, and boost credibility, fleetwide monitoring must be robust and reliable, select data must be made accessible to stakeholders, and the data must be in a format useful to users. To help move the industry toward a more standardized, accessible stream of monitoring data, this distributed wind monitoring best practices report attempts to cover topics including key monitoring channels, hardware, communication strategies, and accessibility. Strategic engagement with DW original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), service providers, lab and university researchers, testing organization, certification bodies, end users and solar photovoltaic (PV) monitoring experts has enabled a better understanding of the current state-of-the-art of monitoring and aided in articulating this set of best practices that will guide OEMs toward harmonized monitoring strategies, aimed at a future goal of achieving accessible performance and operational data for the entire fleet of U.S. distributed wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Framework Development and Demonstration

Nuclear power currently contributes approximately 20% of total electricity generation in the United States and more than 10% globally. Given the increasing reliance on nuclear energy to achieve our nation’s goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, there is significant pressure on the existing nuclear industry to extend plant operational licenses and improve efficiency. This is crucial as the existing nuclear fleet serves as a vital bridge until new light water and advanced reactors can be developed and deployed, bolstering the supply of carbon-free energy to meet domestic demands. Operational costs primarily consist of plant operation and maintenance and fuel costs, influenced by materials and reactor core designs. These factors, coupled with heavily subsidized renewable energy markets, create a challenging economic environment for the existing light water reactor fleet, as well as for new build projects. To address these economic challenges, the nuclear industry has developed a strategic blueprint aimed at enhancing nuclear power’s economic sustainability. Past initiatives, such as efforts to eliminate fuel failures by 2010 and reduce operating costs by 30% before 2020, have laid the groundwork. Optimizing core design parameters, including burnup limits and enrichment levels, can lengthen cycles, reduce outages, reduce batch reload batch fractions and spent fuel storage requirements, and lower maintenance and operating expenses, thereby enhancing economic viability. In the United States, boiling water reactors (BWRs) comprise approximately one-third of the fleet, although much of the research and development focus has traditionally been on pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Advances in modeling and simulation, particularly through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, are crucial to the long-term viability of BWRs, just as they are for PWRs. A key research area of the high burnup/increased enriched fuel initiative is focused on addressing loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA)-related issues. NEAMS has dedicated significant effort to enhancing tools to better support BWRs, with a current focus on showcasing the BWR framework for high-burnup LOCA analysis. This high-fidelity work will demonstrate a best estimate pin-by-pin high-burnup BWR LOCA analysis to assess full-core cladding rupture behavior. This modeling capability will help with better understanding and realistic evaluation of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomena at BWRs, which then could be used to prevent FFRD at BWRs without penalizing operational parameters. In addition, the results of this work will help identify strategies to identify additional margins or to potentially limit cladding rupture through core design optimizations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Next-Generation Energy Technologies for Connected and Automated On-Road Vehicles (NEXTCAR) - Predictive Data-Driven Vehicle Dynamics and Powertrain Control: from ECU to the Cloud (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed and demonstrated a predictive, data-driven vehicle control system designed to improve energy efficiency and driving performance. The team created intelligent self-driving car technology that optimizes fuel and electricity use by proactively planning vehicle actions. By combining Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity, the system enables vehicles to adjust speed and change lanes in response to traffic signals, surrounding vehicles, and road conditions, reducing unnecessary stops and delays. In testing, the system improved vehicle fuel economy by more than 30% and reduced travel time by approximately 10%, compared to a conventional adaptive cruise control baseline. These results demonstrate the technical effectiveness of using predictive, V2X-enabled strategies, such as traffic light timing and surrounding traffic awareness, to inform real-time vehicle powertrain control and driving behavior. Additionally, a supporting cloud platform was developed to provide dispatch and route recommendations as well as to log vehicle data, demonstrating the economic feasibility of this approach at the fleet level. By optimizing dispatching and routing operations, this technology enables electric fleet operators to use their vehicles more efficiently and reduce reliance on diesel backups, lowering both operating costs and energy consumption. Overall, this project’s technology advances the future of clean, energy-efficient transportation, enabling vehicles and fleets to reduce energy waste, cut costs, and lower emissions through intelligent automation and connectivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models for maintenance cost estimation in delivery trucks using diesel and natural gas fuels

The maintenance costs can represent about 15%–60% of the cost of produced goods depending on the type of goods transported. To comply with stringent emissions regulations, diesel engines are incorporated with complex after-treatment systems that demand increased maintenance. The availability of alternative fuels such as natural gas and propane has fostered the natural gas and propane powertrain systems as well as electrification options for heavy- and medium-duty vehicles. A critical barrier to adopting alternative fuel vehicles has been the lack of knowledge on comparative vehicle maintenance/repair costs with conventional diesel. Moreover, the region of operation, the type of vehicle operation, and seasonal temperature changes also affect the duty cycle which impacts the maintenance and repair costs. This study focuses on estimating the cost-per-mile for heavy-duty vehicles using machine learning models such as random forest, xgboost, neural networks, and a super-learner model. The super-learner model achieved an error as low as 0.0068 $/mile for mean absolute error and 0.0086 $/mile for root mean square error with a coefficient of determination/R-Squared of 97.28%. Specifically, the paper investigates the data collected from the maintenance and repair costs associated with delivery trucks using diesel and natural gas fuels. Since the availability of data is the major constraint, we leveraged the data collected by West Virginia University and the partnership with fleet companies. This allows for additional information related to maintenance costs and fleet-specific maintenance practices of alternative fuel vehicles. This study promotes clean fuel technologies and enables fleet management companies to adopt alternative fuel vehicles in case of similar or lower cost of maintenance compared to diesel vehicles resulting in reduced emissions and total cost of ownership.

Katreddi, Sasanka↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resource Adequacy and Capital Cost Considerations Pertaining to Large Electric Grids Powered by Wind, Solar, Storage, Gas, and Nuclear

The capacity and generation of wind, solar, storage, nuclear, and gas are estimated for large, idealized copper-plate electric grids. Wind and solar penetrations of 30% to 80% are considered together with different storage systems such as vanadium and lithium-ion batteries, pumped hydroelectric, compressed air, and hydrogen. In addition to a baseline dispatchable fleet without wind/solar, two bounding cases with wind/solar are analyzed: one without storage and one where the whole wind/solar fleet is connected to the storage system, hence providing a buffer between the wind/solar fleet and the grid. The reality will likely be somewhere between these bounding cases. The viability of a power grid with a large wind/solar penetration and no storage is not guaranteed but was nonetheless considered to provide a lower-bound capital cost estimate. Overall, the options that rely strongly on wind, solar, and storage could be significantly more capital-intensive than those that rely strongly on nuclear, depending on the amount of storage necessary to ensure grid stability. This is especially true in the long run because wind, solar, and storage assets have shorter lifetimes than nuclear plants and, consequently, need to be replaced more frequently. More analyses (e.g., grid stability and public acceptance) are necessary to determine which option is most likely to provide the path of least resistance to powering a clean, affordable, and reliable grid in a timely manner. Depending on the priorities, the path of least resistance may not necessarily be the one that is less capital intensive.

adequacy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Heavy-Duty Truck Incident and Inspection Data

Vehicular incidents, especially those involving tractor trailers, are increasing in number every year. These events are extremely costly for fleets, in terms of damage or loss of property, loss of efficiency, and certainly in terms of loss of life. Although the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for performing inspections, and fleet managers are encouraged to maintain their fleet and participate in regular inspections, it is uncertain whether these inspections are occurring at a frequency that is necessary to prevent incidents. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) of the DOT manages and maintains the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) dataset, which contains all incident and inspection data regarding commercial vehicles in the U.S. The purpose of this preliminary analysis was to explore the MCMIS dataset through spatiotemporal analyses, to uncover findings that may hint at potential improvements in the DOT inspection process and highlight location-specific trends in the dataset. These analyses are novel, as previous research using the MCMIS dataset only examined the data at the state or county level, not at a national scale. The results from the analyses pinpointed specific major metropolitan areas, namely Harris County (Houston), Texas, and three of the New York boroughs (Kings, Queens, and the Bronx), which were found to have increasing incident rates during the study period (2016–2020). An overview of potential causal factors contributing to this increase are provided as well as an overview of the inspection process, and suggestions for improvement relative to the highlighted locations in Texas and New York are also provided. Ultimately, it is suggested that the incorporation of advanced technology and automation may prove beneficial in reducing the occurrence of events that lead to incidents and may also help in the inspection process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A system of shared autonomous vehicles for Chicago: Understanding the effects of geofencing the service

With autonomous vehicles (AVs) still in the testing phase, researchers and planners must resort to simulation techniques to explore possible futures regarding shared and automated mobility. An agent-based discrete-event transport simulator, POLARIS, is used in this study to simulate travel in the 20-county Chicago region with a shared AV (SAV) mobility option. Using this framework, the effect of an SAV fleet on system performance when constrained to serve within geofences is studied under four distinct scenarios: service restricted to the city, to the city plus suburban core, to the core plus exurban areas, and to the entire region — along with the choice of dynamic ridesharing (DRS) versus solo travel in an SAV. Results indicate that service areas need a balanced mix of trip generators and attractors, and an SAV fleet’s empty VMT (eVMT) can be noticeably reduced through suitable geofencing and DRS. Geofences can also help lower response times, reduce systemwide VMT across all modes, and ensure uniform access to SAVs. DRS is most useful in lowering VMT and %eVMT that arises from sprawled land development, but with insufficient demand to share rides, savings from the use of geofences is higher. Geofences targeting neighborhoods with high trip density bring about low response times and %eVMT, but fleet sizes in these regions need to be designed for uniformly low response times throughout a large region, as opposed to maximizing vehicle use in a 24-hour day.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1971

Integrated operations/payloads/fleet analysis. Volume 5: Mission, capture and operations analysis

The current baseline mission model consists of the DOD Option B prepared for space transportation system mission analysis and a NASA model prepared for the integrated operations /payloads/ fleet analysis. Changes from the previous mission model are discussed, and additional benefits of the reusable space shuttle system are identified. The methodology and assumptions used in the capture analysis are described, and satellite and launch vehicle traffic models for the current and low cost expendable launch vehicle systems and the reusable space shuttle system are presented. The areas of fleet sizing, limitations and abort modes, system ground support requirements, and ground support systems assessment are covered. Current and extended launch azimuth limitations used for both ETR and WTR are presented for the current and low cost expendable vehicles and also the reusable space shuttle system. The results of a survey of launch support capability for the launch vehicle fleets are reported.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stratospheric ozone destruction by aircraft-induced nitrogen oxides

The preliminary results from a three-dimensional dynamic-chemical model applied to the SST-NOx (NO + NO2) problem are reported. Simulations indicate that a depletion of about 12 per cent in total stratospheric O3 would be realized for a continuous NOx injection rate of 1.8 x 10 to the sixth power metric tons per year from a hypothetical fleet of SST's flying at an altitude of 20 km in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Sixteen per cent of the existing O3 would be destroyed on an annual basis. The model assumes a fleet of about 500 aircraft of the now-canceled American Boeing 2707 type; if only present Anglo-French and Russian SST models, which fly at lower, less harmful altitudes, are built, it will take a fleet of a few thousand such craft to attain an effective injection rate equal to the one above.

Alyea, F. N.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Cargo transportation by airships: A systems study

A systems engineering study of a lighter than air airship transportation system was conducted. The feasibility of the use of airships in hauling cargo was demonstrated. Social, legal, environmental and political factors were considered as well as the technical factors necessary to design an effective airship transportation system. In order to accomplish an effective airship transportation program two phases of implementation were recommended. Phase I would involve a fleet of rigid airships of 3.5 million cubic feet displacement capable of carrying 25 tons of cargo internal to the helium-filled gas bag. The Phase I fleet would demonstrate the economic and technical feasibility of modern-day airships while providing a training capability for the construction and operation of larger airships. The Phase II portion would be a fleet of rigid airships of 12 million cubic feet displacement capable of carrying a cargo of 100 tons a distance of 2,000 miles at a cruising speed of 60 mph. An economic analysis is given for a variety of missions for both Phase I and Phase II airships.

Huang, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Tug ground operations - An approach to early identification of operational impacts

An approach to early identification of operational requirements is discussed together with an assessment of the impact of these requirements on the development and acquisition phase of a program. The approach is applied to the Space Tug program. Some of the more salient results of the Tug Fleet and Ground Operations Schedules and Controls study performed under a NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center contract are provided. Ground-processing requirements and flows are presented, including a summary of facility requirements, timelines, activities and options/contingency-provision recommendations. Programmatic recommendations resulting from the study are presented in areas of payload integration, activation requirements, fleet utilization, fleet sizing, costs, and WTR delta requirement for the Tug.

Best, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

Kneafsey, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Ferry to the moon

Solar-electric propulsion for a fleet of lunar ferry vehicles may allow the creation of a permanent lunar base not long after the turn of the century with greater cost effectiveness than a fleet of chemically powered spacecraft. After delivery by the Space Shuttle to a 300-km earth orbit, the lunar ferry envisioned would travel in spiral trajectory to the moon under the power of 300-kW solar arrays and ten 30-kW Xe-ion engines; each of the solar arrays would be 12 x 61 m long. Each trip between the earth parking orbit and the moon would take about 1 year, so that a fleet of four ferries operating simultaneously could deliver 20 metric tons to a lunar base every 100 days.

Aston, Graeme↗

NASA NTRS1991

Navigation strategies for multiple autonomous mobile robots moving in formation

The problem of deriving navigation strategies for a fleet of autonomous mobile robots moving in formation is considered. Here, each robot is represented by a particle with a spherical effective spatial domain and a specified cone of visibility. The global motion of each robot in the world space is described by the equations of motion of the robot's center of mass. First, methods for formation generation are discussed. Then, simple navigation strategies for robots moving in formation are derived. A sufficient condition for the stability of a desired formation pattern for a fleet of robots each equipped with the navigation strategy based on nearest neighbor tracking is developed. The dynamic behavior of robot fleets consisting of three or more robots moving in formation in a plane is studied by means of computer simulation.

Wang, P. K. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural integrity of future aging airplanes

A multitude of design considerations is involved in ensuring the structural integrity of Boeing jet transports that have common design concepts validated by extensive analyses, tests, and three decades of service. As airplanes approach their design service objectives, the incidences of fatigue and corrosion may become widespread. Continuing airworthiness of the aging jet fleet requires diligent performance from the manufacturer, the airlines, and airworthiness authorities. Aging fleet support includes timely development of supplemental structural inspection documents applicable to selected older airplanes, teardown inspections of high-time airframes retired from service, fatigue testing of older airframes, and structural surveys of more than 130 airplanes operated throughout the world. Lessons learned from these activities are incorporated in service bulletin recommendations, production line modifications, and design manual updates. An overview of traditional Boeing fleet support activities and the anticipated benefits for future generations of commercial airplanes based on the continuous design improvement process are presented.

Aging Aircraft↗

NASA NTRS1998

Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

Baughcum, Steven L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Second Joint NASA/FAA/DoD Conference on Aging Aircraft

The purpose of the Conference was to bring together world leaders in aviation safety research, aircraft design and manufacturing, fleet operation and aviation maintenance to disseminate information on current practices and advanced technologies that will assure the continued airworthiness of the aging aircraft in the military and commercial fleets. The Conference included reviews of current industry practices, assessments of future technology requirements, and status of aviation safety research. The Conference provided an opportunity for interactions among the key personnel in the research and technology development community, the original equipment manufacturers, commercial airline operators, military fleet operators, aviation maintenance, and aircraft certification and regulatory authorities. Conference participation was unrestricted and open to the international aviation community. Appendix B contains the name and addresses of the 623 participants in the Conference.

Harris, Charles E.↗