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DOE OSTI2026

Estimating IDP Origins Using ACLED Political Violence Events: Validation with Lebanon IDP Flow Data

A key input in modeling population distribution and flows following conflict events is the inclusion of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) flows between administrative units within a country. These flows are critical for capturing population movement and redistribution driven by current events, particularly conflict. In some cases, IDP destination data are available while origin data is incomplete or unavailable. This creates a gap in understanding where displacement is occurring, limiting the ability to model population redistribution accurately. Without origin data, it is not possible to reallocate population flows or accurately represent where displacement is occurring within the country. This report evaluates whether Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED) political violence event data can be used to estimate IDP origin distributions when direct origin data are unavailable. The approach is validated using historical IDP flow data from Lebanon, where both origins and destinations are observed. Results show that ACLED event distributions strongly correspond to observed IDP-origin patterns, particularly when using cumulative 60-day event windows. The method is most reliable for identifying major origin districts and approximating proportional origin shares. However, it is not intended to reconstruct exact individual displacement flows, but rather to provide a probabilistic spatial allocation of displacement origins.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Zonal Flow and Self-regulating Mechanism in a Hydrodynamic Disk

This study addresses key aspects of momentum transport in hydrodynamic disks, which is critical for understanding zonal flow generation and turbulence in compressible hydrodynamic disks. We find that nonlinear momentum/density transport leads to the formation of zonal flows from the Rossby wave instability in disks. We analytically derive the generation and location of zonal flows and describe a modified Taylor identity applicable to compressible disk flows. We further present a self-regulation model, revealing a dynamic interplay between zonal flow and fluctuations driven by Rossby wave instability that regulates the nonlinear saturation state. This theoretical framework contributes insights into the dynamics of disks such as protoplanetary disks, shedding light on the intricate processes governing momentum/density transport and the emergence of zonal flows in the saturation of protoplanetary disks.

Astrophysical fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

A microfluidic study of transient flow states in permeable media using fluorescent particle image velocimetry

Velocity fields in flow in permeable media are of great importance to many subsurface processes such as geologic storage of CO 2 , oil and gas extraction, and geothermal systems. Steady-state flow is characterized by velocity fields that do not change significantly over time. The flow field transitions to a new steady state once it experiences a disturbance such as a change in flow rate or in pressure gradient. This transition is often assumed to be instantaneous, which justifies the expression of constitutive relations as functions of instantaneous phase saturations. This work examines the evolution of velocity fields in a surrogate quasi-2D permeable medium using a microfluidic device, a microscopy system, and a high-speed camera. Tracer particles are injected into the medium along with DI water. The evolution of the velocity field is examined by tracing these particles in the captured images using the standard high-density particle image velocimetry algorithm founded on cross-correlation. The results suggest that the transition between steady states for an incompressible fluid takes a finite and non-negligible amount of time that is independent of the magnitude of the change in pressure gradient. The existence of transient states and the nature of the response during these states are readily interpreted by the principle of least action where flow gradually establishes an optimal configuration such that energy dissipation is 2 minimized. The findings provide evidence against the applicability of the assumption that flowing phases relax instantaneously to their steady states and, hence, against the accuracy of the classical multiphase extension of Darcy's law.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Representing lateral groundwater flow from land to river in Earth system models

Lateral groundwater flow (LGF) is an important hydrologic process in controlling water table dynamics. Due to the relatively coarse spatial resolutions of land surface models, the representation of this process is often overlooked or overly simplified. In this study, we developed a hillslope-based lateral groundwater flow model. Specifically, we first developed a hillslope definition model based on an existing watershed delineation model to represent the subgrid spatial variability in topography. Building upon this hillslope definition, we then developed a physical-based lateral groundwater flow using Darcy’s equation. This model explicitly considers the relationships between the groundwater table along the hillslope and the river water table levels. We coupled this intra-grid model to the land component (E3SM Land Model: ELM) and river component (MOdel for Scale Adaptive River Transport: MOSART) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We tested both the hillslope definition model and the lateral groundwater flow model and performed sensitivity experiments using different configurations. Simulations for a single grid cell at 0.5°×0.5° within the Amazon basin show that the definition of hillslope is the key to modeling lateral flow processes and the runoff partition between surface and subsurface can be dramatically changed using the hillslope approach. Although our method provides a pathway to improve the lateral flow process, future improvements are needed to better capture the subgrid structure to account for the spatial variability in hillslopes within the simulated grid of land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design and analysis of a wake model for spatially heterogeneous flow

Abstract. Methods of turbine wake modeling are being developed to more accurately account for spatially variant atmospheric conditions within wind farms. Most current wake modeling utilities are designed to apply a uniform flow field to the entire domain of a wind farm. When this method is used, the accuracy of power prediction and wind farm controls can be compromised depending on the flow-field characteristics of a particular area. In an effort to improve strategies of wind farm wake modeling and power prediction, FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) was developed to implement sophisticated methods of atmospheric characterization and power output calculation. In this paper, we describe an adapted FLORIS model that features spatial heterogeneity in flow-field characterization. This model approximates an observed flow field by interpolating from a set of atmospheric measurements that represent local weather conditions. The objective of this method is to capture heterogeneous atmospheric effects caused by site-specific terrain features, without explicitly modeling the geometry of the wind farm terrain. The implemented adaptations were validated by comparing the simulated power predictions generated from FLORIS to the actual recorded wind farm output from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) recordings and large eddy simulations (LESs). When comparing the performance of the proposed heterogeneous model to homogeneous FLORIS simulations, the results show a 14.6 % decrease for mean absolute error (MAE) in wind farm power output predictions for cases using wind farm SCADA data and a 18.9 % decrease in LES case studies. The results of these studies also indicate that the efficacy of the proposed modeling techniques may vary with differing site-specific operational conditions. This work quantifies the accuracy of wind plant power predictions under heterogeneous flow conditions and establishes best practices for atmospheric surveying for wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systems and methods for fast detection of elephant flows in network traffic

In a system for efficiently detecting large/elephant flows in a network, the rate at which the received packets are sampled is adjusted according to a top flow detection likelihood computed for a cache of flows identified in the arriving network traffic. After observing packets sampled from the network, Dirichlet-Categorical inference is employed to calculate a posterior distribution that captures uncertainty about the sizes of each flow, yielding a top flow detection likelihood. The posterior distribution is used to find the most likely subset of elephant flows. The technique rapidly converges to the optimal sampling rate at a speed O(1/n), where n is the number of packet samples received, and the only hyperparameter required is the targeted detection likelihood.

Gudibanda, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2022

Alternative low cost electrodes for hybrid flow batteries

A redox flow battery may include: a membrane interposed between a first electrode positioned at a first side of the membrane and a second electrode positioned at a second side of the membrane opposite to the first side; a first flow field plate comprising a plurality of positive flow field ribs, each of the plurality of positive flow field ribs contacting the first electrode at first supporting regions on the first side; and the second electrode, including an electrode spacer positioned between the membrane and a second flow field plate, the electrode spacer comprising a plurality of main ribs, each of the plurality of main ribs contacting the second flow field plate at second supporting regions on the second side, each of the second supporting regions aligned opposite to one of the plurality of first supporting regions. As such, a current density distribution at a plating surface may be reduced.

Evans, Craig E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Alternative low cost electrodes for hybrid flow batteries

Evans, Craig E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical investigation of multiphase flow through self-affine rough fractures

Multiphase flow through fractures has great significance in subsurface energy recovery and gas storage applications. Different fracture and flow properties affect flow through a fracture which is difficult to control in laboratory experiments. Here, we perform lattice Boltzmann simulations in an ensemble of synthetically generated fractures. Drainage simulations are performed at different capillary numbers, wettability, and viscosity ratios. We track the invading front and quantify breakthrough saturations and show that roughness and wettability have a strong effect on fluid invasion through a complex fracture. Invading a more viscous fluid results in more stable displacement regardless of the capillary number while at very low capillary numbers, fluid migration is dependent on the inherent structure of the fracture. We develop a fluid displacement phase diagram in a single rough fracture and compare our results from that in the literature. Finally, we extend the phase diagrams across multiple fractures and demonstrate the importance of natural fracture features of roughness and wettability in identifying stable versus unstable displacement regimes during multiphase flow through rough fractures. Our work presents an end-to-end numerical pathway for testing on experimental data and expanding numerical data sets for testing combinations of different physical phenomenon and make valuable predictions on fluid flow through rough fractures.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Discrete element modeling of granular hopper flow of irregular-shaped deformable particles

Many natural and engineered granular materials have relatively deformable particles. Besides particle size and shape, particle deformability is another salient factor that significantly impacts the material’s flow behavior. Here, in this work, the flow of irregular-shaped deformable particles in a wedge-shaped hopper is investigated using discrete element simulations. A bonded-sphere model is developed to simultaneously capture irregular particle shapes and particle-wise deformations (e.g., compression, deflection, and distortion). Quantitative analysis of the effects of irregular shapes and particle deformations shows that the increase in particle stiffness tends to increase initial packing porosity and decrease the flow rate in the hopper. Rigid particles tend to have clogging issues, whereas deformable particles have less chance to, indicating particle deformation reduces the critical bridging width in the hopper flow. Detailed analysis of stress fields is also conducted to provide insights into the mechanism of particle flow and clogging. Stresses and discharge rates calculated from numerical simulations are compared and show good agreement with Walker’s theory and the extended Beverloo formula. Simulations with various particle shape combinations are also performed and show that the initial packing porosity decreases with an increasing percentage of fibers while the discharge rate has a complex dependency on particle shapes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advective gas flow in bentonite: Development and comparison of enhanced multi-phase numerical approaches

Understanding the impact of repository gas, generated from degradation of waste and its interaction with the host rock, is essential when assessing the performance and safety function of long-term disposal systems for radioactive waste. Numerical models based on conventional multi-phase flow theory have historically been applied to predict the outcome and impact of gas flow on different repository components. However, they remain unable to describe the full complexity of the physical processes observed in water-saturated experiments (e.g., creation of dilatant pathways) and thus, the development of novel representations for their description is required when assessing fully saturated clay-based systems. This was the primary focus of Task A within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2019 (D-2019) and refinement of these approaches is the primary focus of this study (Task B in the current phase of DECOVALEX-2023). This paper summarises development of enhanced numerical representations of key processes and compares the performance of each model against high-quality laboratory test data. Experimental data reveals that gas percolation in water-saturated compacted bentonite is characterised by four key features: (i) a quiescence phase, followed by (ii) the gas breakthrough, which leads to a (iii) peak value, which is then followed by (iv) a negative decay. Three models based on the multiphase flow theory have been developed. These models can provide good initial values and reasonable responses for gas breakthrough (although some of them still predict a too-smooth response). Peak gas pressure values are in general reasonably well captured, although maximum radial stress differences are observed at 48 mm from the base of the sample. Here, numerical peak values of 12.8 MPa are predicted, whereas experimental values are about 11 MPa. These models are also capable of providing a reasonable representation of the negative pressure decay following peak pressure. However, other key specific features (such as the timing of gas breakthrough) still require a better representation. The model simulations and their comparison with experimental data show that these models need to be further improved with respect to model parameter calibration, the numerical representation of spatial heterogeneities in material properties and flow localisation, and the upscaling of the related physical processes and parameters. To further understand gas flow localisation, a new conceptual model has been developed, which shows that discrete channels can possibly be induced through the instability of gas-bentonite interface during gas injection, thus providing a new perspective for modeling gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flow instabilities in helical-coil steam generators for small modular reactors: A review

Here, this study covers the research and discoveries in two-phase flow-boiling instabilities available in the literature—specifically for a helical-coil steam generator (HCSG), including experimental findings, theoretical research, computational models, and system code analyses—supporting research and development of representative small modular reactors (SMRs). Like other new and advanced reactor systems, water-cooled SMRs require experimental data from both integral and separate thermal-hydraulics test facilities for the verification and validation (V&V) of the computational models and computer codes in order to design and obtain regulatory approval. The complex dynamics of two-phase flow-boiling instabilities includes flow regimes physics phenomena, flow-channel geometries, heat-transfer behavior, and interactions among the solid–liquid-gas within the system boundary, all of which are pivotal for understanding the design and operational challenges of SMRs. This study focuses on identifying the relevant knowledge gaps on boiling instabilities—specifically for a HCSG—and provides insights about future research direction optimizing the transport of thermal energy, mass-flow rates, and boundary conditions that ensure the adequate heat-transfer performance, operational stability, and safety associated with SMR systems.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

From Fluid Flow to Coupled Processes in Fractured Rock: Recent Advances and New Frontiers

Abstract Quantitative predictions of natural and induced phenomena in fractured rock is one of the great challenges in the Earth and Energy Sciences with far‐reaching economic and environmental impacts. Fractures occupy a very small volume of a subsurface formation but often dominate fluid flow, solute transport and mechanical deformation behavior. They play a central role in CO 2 sequestration, nuclear waste disposal, hydrogen storage, geothermal energy production, nuclear nonproliferation, and hydrocarbon extraction. These applications require predictions of fracture‐dependent quantities of interest such as CO 2 leakage rate, hydrocarbon production, radionuclide plume migration, and seismicity; to be useful, these predictions must account for uncertainty inherent in subsurface systems. Here, we review recent advances in fractured rock research covering field‐ and laboratory‐scale experimentation, numerical simulations, and uncertainty quantification. We discuss how these have greatly improved the fundamental understanding of fractures and one's ability to predict flow and transport in fractured systems. Dedicated field sites provide quantitative measurements of fracture flow that can be used to identify dominant coupled processes and to validate models. Laboratory‐scale experiments fill critical knowledge gaps by providing direct observations and measurements of fracture geometry and flow under controlled conditions that cannot be obtained in the field. Physics‐based simulation of flow and transport provide a bridge in understanding between controlled simple laboratory experiments and the massively complex field‐scale fracture systems. Finally, we review the use of machine learning‐based emulators to rapidly investigate different fracture property scenarios and accelerate physics‐based models by orders of magnitude to enable uncertainty quantification and near real‐time analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Dissolution Dynamics in Porous Media Using a Spatial Flow Focusing Profile

Abstract The diverse range of patterns in porous media formed by dissolution processes depends on the relative magnitude of flow, transport, and chemical reactions at pore surfaces. However, distinguishing between regimes often relies solely on qualitative, visual comparisons of emergent structures. Here, we propose a quantitative measure capable of identifying different regimes using the concept of the spatial flow focusing profile, which segments the medium into cross sections along the flow direction to calculate the flow focusing index for each section. We employ this measure in numerical simulations of a dissolving porous medium using a pore network model. We obtain a morphological phase diagram of dissolution patterns, which we characterize using the flow focusing profile. In particular, we demonstrate that analyzing the temporal changes in the profile allows one to quantitatively distinguish between wormholing and channeling. The transition between them is shown to be affected by the heterogeneity of the system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Suppression of electroconvective and morphological instabilities by an imposed cross flow of the electrolyte

Electroconvective (EC) instability and its influence on surface morphological perturbations (Morph) are important in many applications, including electrodialysis, batteries, and fuel cells. In this work, we study the effects of a two-dimensional channel flow on the EC and Morph instabilities using two approaches. In the bulk analysis, we derive the asymptotic solutions for small and large wave numbers by neglecting the space charge layer and imposing a second kind electroosmosis slip velocity boundary condition on the electroneutral bulk region. In the full analysis, the instability of the entire region of the liquid electrolyte is analyzed using the ultraspherical spectral method. Both studies show that the flow significantly affects the EC instability. The imposed flow distorts the concentration field, causing a sheltering effect which hinders the ion transport from low- to high-concentration regions, and therefore suppresses the EC instability below a certain wave number. In combination with the viscous stabilization of the high wave number modes by the space charge layer, a sufficiently strong imposed flow can fully suppress the EC instability. The increment in the critical voltage for the instability onset is roughly proportional to the square root of the product of imposed velocity and double layer thickness. The imposed flow has a smaller effect on the Morph instability, except that it may remove the morphological modes resulting from the EC instability and thereby change the wave number of the most unstable mode.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anisotropic Flow in Fixed-Target 208 Pb + 20 Ne Collisions as a Probe of Quark-Gluon Plasma

The System for Measuring Overlap with Gas (SMOG2) at the LHCb detector enables the study of fixed-target ion-ion collisions at relativistic energies ($\sqrt{𝑠_{NN}}$ ∼ 100 GeV in the center of mass). Here, with input from ab initio calculations of the structure of 16 O and 20 Ne , we compute 3+1⁢D hydrodynamic predictions for the anisotropic flow of Pb+Ne and Pb+O collisions to be tested with upcoming LHCb data. This will allow the detailed study of quark-gluon plasma formation as well as experimental tests of the predicted nuclear shapes. Elliptic flow (𝑣 2 ) in Pb + Ne collisions is greatly enhanced compared to the Pb + O baseline due to the shape of 20 Ne , which is deformed in a bowling-pin geometry. Owing to the large 208 Pb radius, this effect is seen in a broad centrality range, a unique feature of this collision configuration. Larger elliptic flow further enhances the quadrangular flow (𝑣 4 ) of Pb + Ne collisions via nonlinear coupling, and impacts the sign of the kurtosis of the elliptic flow vector distribution (𝑐 2 ⁡{4}). Exploiting the shape of 20 Ne proves thus an ideal method to investigate the formation of quark-gluon plasma in fixed-target experiments at LHCb, and demonstrates the power of System for Measuring Overlap with Gas as a tool to image nuclear ground states.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence Based on Deep Learning Initialization and Homotopy Continuation

Power flow forms the basis of many power system studies. With the increased penetration of renewable energy, grid planners tend to perform multiple power flow simulations under various operating conditions and not just selected snapshots at peak or light load conditions. Getting a converged AC power flow (ACPF) case remains a significant challenge for grid planners especially in large power grid networks. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to improve Newton-Raphson ACPF convergence and was applied to a 6102 bus Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The first stage utilizes a deep learning-based initializer with data re-training. Here a deep neural network (DNN) initializer is developed to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle guesses to aid in power flow convergence. This is because Newton-Raphson ACPF is quite sensitive to the initial conditions and bad initialization could lead to divergence. The DNN initializer includes a data re-training framework that improves the initializer's performance when faced with limited training data. The DNN initializer successfully solved 3,285 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatch and performed better than random forest and DC power flow initialization methods. ACPF cases not solved in this first stage are then passed through a hot-starting algorithm based on homotopy continuation with switched shunt control. The hot-starting algorithm successfully converged 416 cases out of the remaining 614 non-converging ACPF dispatch. In conclusion, the combined two-stage approach achieved a 94.9% success rate, by converging a total of 3,701 cases out of the initial 3,899 unsolved cases.

Deep learning↗