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At least 451 records · Page 25

Physics or Knob‐Tuning? Tropical Anvil Peak Is Captured by GCMs

Tropical anvil clouds peak near 200 hPa and significantly impact Earth's climate, yet its physical realism in coarse‐resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) remains debated. We examine anvil cloud formation by performing simulations with a GCM with a hierarchy of cloud fraction schemes ranging from a complex prognostic Tiedtke scheme to a simple binary scheme. All schemes consistently reproduce the anvil peak. The robust anvil peak arises because extremely cold temperatures at the upper troposphere facilitate frequent saturation events, producing clouds that disproportionately influence mean cloud fraction. Sensitivity experiments with enhanced evaporation of cloud condensate unexpectedly show increased anvil coverage, highlighting how slight evaporative moistening reinforces local saturation in cold upper‐tropospheric conditions. These results demonstrate that the tropical anvil cloud peak emerges from fundamental thermodynamic constraints, rather than specific cloud fraction parameterization choices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shape effects on the local dynamics of suspensions of spheroidal particles

The effect of shape on the dynamics of suspensions of non-spherical heavy particles is examined by fully resolved numerical simulations of oblate and prolate spheroids, as well as spheres, for a density ratio of ten, volume fractions ranging from 0.5% to 5%, and Reynolds numbers between 20 and 30. The dynamics is determined both by the interactions of the particles with the fluid as well as by collisions, with the number and importance of collisions increasing with volume fractions. A single isolated oblate or prolate spheroid falling under gravity generally falls broadside on, for the governing parameters examined here, and at low-volume fractions, the majority of particles in a suspension fall that way. At higher-volume fractions, the orientation is more random. The slip velocity decreases as the volume fraction increases for all shapes, as expected, but the effect of the shape is much less than seen for a single particle. Furthermore, this seems to be due to two effects. For all volume fractions, the most deformed particles cluster more than spheres and less deformed particles, which increases their slip velocity. As the concentration increases, the increased particle interactions also causes more particles to fall short side-on, which reduces the frontal area and the resulting drag, increasing the slip velocity. This second effect is, of course, absent for spherical particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigation of inter-subject variation in ultrafine particle deposition across human nasal airways: A study involving children, adults, and the elderly

Occupational and environmental exposure to toxic nanoparticles, driven by the rapid expansion of nanotechnology, raises significant respiratory health concern. Numerous studies have explored airflow and particle dynamics in adult nasal airways, but understanding the impact of age-related anatomical changes in children and the elderly remains limited. This study systematically investigates age-related anatomical variations and associated influence on nasal airflow dynamics and ultrafine particle deposition characteristics. Using Computational Fluid-Particle Dynamics (CFPD) method, simulation was conducted under diverse inhalation conditions spanning a wide age range, including: two children (5 years old), two young adults (in their twenties), and two elderly (over 77 years old). Our results reveal distinctive variations across age groups in anatomical dimensions, which affect distribution of wall shear stress where the elderly and children display unique patterns distinct from the young adults. While total deposition efficiency differs significantly between children and adults, filtration efficiency in the subregion with most deposition, main respiratory, remains consistent. However, inter-subject differences are observed in the vestibular and olfactory regions,emphasizing nuanced impact of age-related anatomical variations. Overall and subregional empirical equations for deposition efficiency were developed by incorporating the combined diffusion parameter, Sc a Δ b , corroborating the use of geometrical characteristic parameters for each specific subject in predicting nasal deposition efficiency across age groups. Our findings contribute to predictive nanoparticle exposure analysis in nasal airways across different age groups, thereby enhancing respiratory healthcare for individuals across the life span.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Planar shock-induced bubble collapse and jetting in water captured via X-ray phase contrast imaging

Shock wave–bubble interactions in water manifest rich dynamics driven by a combination of strong pressure and density mismatches. They have a wide variety of applications, including the injection of pharmaceuticals, and through scaling, enable the exploration of various aspects of high-energy-density systems such as inertial confinement fusion. In this work, the interaction between a micrometric nitrogen bubble and a planar shock wave, characterized by a Mach number of M = 1.24 and a peak pressure of p max = 0.57 , is experimentally recorded using ultra-high-speed x-ray phase contrast imaging. Highly resolved radiographs provide access to all phase discontinuities along the beam path, offering quantities such as the time-varying bubble size, the speed of a jet produced during the bubble collapse, and the time evolution of the shock wave front, which are critical benchmark data for numerical scheme validation. This study addresses the lack of well-characterized, repeatable, and high spatiotemporal resolution experiments at negative Atwood numbers by providing shock–bubble visualization and corresponding numerical simulation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗

Corrigendum to “The Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (Emissions-MIP): quantifying model sensitivity to emission characteristics” published in Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14779–14799, 2023

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor compounds are known to significantly affect the energy balance of the Earth–atmosphere system, alter the formation of clouds and precipitation, and have a substantial impact on human health and the environment. Global models are an essential tool for examining the impacts of these emissions. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of model results to the assumed height of SO 2 injection, seasonality of SO 2 and black carbon (BC) particulate emissions, and the assumed fraction of SO 2 emissions that is injected into the atmosphere as particulate phase sulfate (SO 4 ) in 11 climate and chemistry models, including both chemical transport models and the atmospheric component of Earth system models. We find large variation in atmospheric lifetime across models for SO 2 , SO 4 , and BC, with a particularly large relative variation for SO 2 , which indicates that fundamental aspects of atmospheric sulfur chemistry remain uncertain. Of the perturbations examined in this study, the assumed height of SO 2 injection had the largest overall impacts, particularly on global mean net radiative flux (maximum difference of -0.35?W?m-2), SO2 lifetime over Northern Hemisphere land (maximum difference of 0.8?d), surface SO 2 concentration (up to 59?% decrease), and surface sulfate concentration (up to 23?% increase). Emitting SO 2 at height consistently increased SO 2 and SO 4 column burdens and shortwave cooling, with varying magnitudes, but had inconsistent effects across models on the sign of the change in implied cloud forcing. The assumed SO 4 emission fraction also had a significant impact on net radiative flux and surface sulfate concentration. Because these properties are not standardized across models this is a source of inter-model diversity typically neglected in model intercomparisons. These results imply a need to ensure that anthropogenic emission injection height and SO 4 emission fraction are accurately and consistently represented in global models.

Ahsan, Hamza [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Sedimentation and shear-induced dynamics of spheroids in fluids with spatial viscosity variations

A generalized reciprocal theorem is used to relate the force and torque induced on a particle in an inertia-less fluid with small variation in viscosity to integrals involving Stokes flow fields and the spatial dependence of viscosity. These resistivity expressions are analytically evaluated using spheroidal harmonics and then used to obtain the mobility of the spheroid during sedimentation, and in linear flows, of a fluid with linear viscosity stratification. The coupling between the rotational and translational motion induced by stratification rotates the spheroid’s centerline, creating a variety of rotational and translational dynamics dependent upon the particle’s aspect ratio, κ, and the component of the stratification unit vector in the gravity direction, d g . Spheroids with 0.55 ⪅ κ ⪅ 2.0 exhibit the largest variety of settling behaviors. Interestingly, this range covers most microplastics and typical microorganisms. One of the modes include a stable orientation dependent only on κ and d g , but independent of initial orientation, thus allowing for the potential control of settling angles and sedimentation rates. In a simple shear flow, cross-streamline migration occurs due to the stratification-induced force generated on the particle. Similarly, a particle no longer stays at the stagnation point of a uniaxial extensional flow. While fully analytical results are obtained for spheroids, numerical simulations provide a source of validation. These simulations also provide additional insights into the stratification-induced force- and torque-producing mechanisms through the stratification-induced stress, which is not accessed in the reciprocal theorem-based analytical calculations.

Geophysical and Geological Flows: Stratified flows↗

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simulating projections of ice shelf and ocean states under future climate. Designed to assess the current state of ice shelf–ocean modelling, the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, consists of 12 ocean model configurations submitted with a common, idealised experimental setup. Here, we focus on the experiments Ocean0–2 (Asay-Davis et al., 2016), which are ocean models with idealised, static ice shelf geometries, but where the ocean reaches a balance with prescribed far-field ocean conditions. Different thermal transfer coefficient values (ranging from 0.011 to 0.2) are used for each model in the melting parameterisation to achieve a common, tuned melt rate since the models cover a range of types of vertical coordinates, ice–ocean boundary layer treatments, and numerical schemes. These model differences lead to spread in the resultant ocean properties, circulation, boundary-layer structure and spatial distribution of melting. We also highlight similarities between models, such as a shared linear relationship across most models between melt rate and overturning and barotropic streamfunctions during the spin-up and spin-down, demonstrating a robust relationship between melt and circulation across models and forcing conditions. The ISOMIP+ results provide a systematic comparison of ice shelf cavity-capable ocean models. However, we also demonstrate the need for realistic ice shelf–ocean model intercomparison projects (some already underway) to assess model biases and inter-model variation against sparse observations. Further research is needed to understand the differences between models and further improve our modelled representations of the ice–ocean boundary layer and ice shelf cavity circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Zonal Flow and Self-regulating Mechanism in a Hydrodynamic Disk

This study addresses key aspects of momentum transport in hydrodynamic disks, which is critical for understanding zonal flow generation and turbulence in compressible hydrodynamic disks. We find that nonlinear momentum/density transport leads to the formation of zonal flows from the Rossby wave instability in disks. We analytically derive the generation and location of zonal flows and describe a modified Taylor identity applicable to compressible disk flows. We further present a self-regulation model, revealing a dynamic interplay between zonal flow and fluctuations driven by Rossby wave instability that regulates the nonlinear saturation state. This theoretical framework contributes insights into the dynamics of disks such as protoplanetary disks, shedding light on the intricate processes governing momentum/density transport and the emergence of zonal flows in the saturation of protoplanetary disks.

Astrophysical fluid dynamics↗

Numerical simulations of liquid jetting with solid inclusions

The dynamics of finite-sized particles in fluids, and their influence on the overall flow, are of great interest across several industrial, environmental, and medical fields. In the context of inkjet printing, the presence of solid inclusions can be either intentional, as in additive manufacturing, or unintentional, as in standard printing processes. These inclusions can strongly impact the jetting process, causing effects such as jet asymmetry, bubble entrapment, and the formation of satellite droplets. Understanding and controlling particle behavior is therefore essential, particularly to predict how and when particles are ejected over multiple jetting cycles. It is therefore critical to develop reliable models that allow for a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between particle and fluid during the whole printing process. To address this, we present a tailored implementation of the Color-Gradient multicomponent Lattice Boltzmann Method for fully resolved three-dimensional (3D) simulations of multicycle liquid jetting with particles. Our method supports realistic parameter settings aligned with industrial inkjet systems, and we provide both qualitative and quantitative validation against experimental data. Additionally, we introduce a simplified model based on the Stokes drag law, in which solid particles are represented as point particles and do not influence the fluid flow. Despite this limitation, the model offers a computationally efficient means to explore the vast parameter space typically encountered in industrial applications, allowing, e.g., identifying critical ejection regions and estimating the number of cycles required for particle release. These qualitative insights are valuable for guiding and complement fully two-way coupled simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Efficiency of Water Vapor on Top‐of‐Atmosphere Radiation

Earth's climate sensitivity is greatly affected by the compensation between temperature feedback and water vapor (WV) feedback. Using abrupt 4xCO 2 experiments, we show that the global-mean WV feedback is nearly a linear function of the temperature feedback, the slope of which is explained by the longwave radiative efficiency of WV (ϵ). Although ϵ remains constant across models in the global mean, it exhibits substantial spatial variations and is particularly weak in Antarctica, where near-surface inversions decouple the surface from the free troposphere. We introduce a surface–free troposphere temperature difference (SFTD) metric, showing that positive SFTD (e.g., high lifting condensation level) amplifies ϵ, while negative SFTD (e.g., strong surface inversion) suppresses it. These findings provide a clear explanation of how local climate conditions modulate the radiative compensation between temperature and WV feedbacks.

climate feedback↗

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗

Assessment of ESM Readiness Level for Exascale HPC

Advancement of Earth System Models (ESMs) is becoming increasingly challenging due to a confluence of factors including increasing model complexity – to more fully represent the earth system, increasing spatial resolution - to achieve higher accuracy by resolving fine-scale dynamical to physical, biological, and chemical processes and their interaction, increasing ensemble size - to more accurately represent predictive uncertainty, and increased computing requirements – to enable more accurate and timely weather predictions and climate projections for societal benefit. The belief by many that computing will take care of itself is no longer valid given the disruptive changes in HPC that are driving up the cost of computing, increasing the difficulty of using emerging HPC effectively, and exposing limits in parallelism, portability and scalability of the ESM applications themselves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗

On the Departure from Monin–Obukhov Surface Similarity and Transition to the Convective Mixed Layer

Large-eddy simulations are used to evaluate mean profile similarity in the convective boundary layer (CBL). Particular care is taken regarding the grid sensitivity of the profiles and the mitigation of inertial oscillations in the simulation spin-up. The nondimensional gradients Φ for wind speed and air temperature generally align with Monin–Obukhov similarity across cases but have a steeper slope than predicted within each profile. The same trend has been noted in several other recent studies. The Businger-Dyer relations are modified here with an exponential cutoff term to account for the decay in Φ to first-order approximation, yielding improved similarity from approximately 0.05z i to above 0.3z i , where z i is the CBL depth. The necessity for the exponential correction is attributed to an extended transition from surface scaling to zero gradient in the mixed layer, where the departure from Monin–Obukhov similarity may be negligible at the surface but becomes substantial well below the conventional surface layer height of 0.1 z i .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnetic flux emergence in binary neutron star remnants

Using high-resolution AthenaK simulations of a twisted toroidal flux tube, we study the flux emergence of magnetic structures in the shear layer of a hot massive neutron star typical of a binary neutron star remnant. High-resolution simulations demonstrate that magnetic buoyant instabilities allow for emergence only for extremely large magnetic fields significantly exceeding 10 17 G, and more typical fields around 10 16 G are instead dominated by hydrodynamic effects. Because merger remnants tend to be stable against hydrodynamic convection, our work places strong limitations on the mechanisms by which massive binary neutron star remnants can produce the magnetically-driven outflows needed to power jets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗