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DOE OSTI2024

Study of e + e − → π + π − π 0 at s from 2.00 to 3.08 GeV at BESIII

With the data samples taken at center-of-mass energies from 2.00 to 3.08 GeV with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, a partial wave analysis on the e + e − → π + π − π 0 process is performed. The Born cross sections for e + e − → π + π − π 0 and its intermediate processes e + e − → ρ π and ρ ( 1450 ) π are measured as functions of s . The results for e + e − → π + π − π 0 are consistent with previous results measured with the initial state radiation method within one standard deviation, and improve the uncertainty by a factor of ten. By fitting the line shapes of the Born cross sections for the e + e − → ρ π and e + e − → ρ ( 1450 ) π , a structure with mass M = 2119 ± 11 ± 15 MeV / c 2 and width Γ = 69 ± 30 ± 5 MeV is observed with a significance of 5.9 σ , where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones are systematic. This structure can be interpreted as an excited ω state. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1991

Development of a calibrated software reliability model for flight and supporting ground software for avionic systems

The object of this project was to develop and calibrate quantitative models for predicting the quality of software. Reliable flight and supporting ground software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. The models used in the present study consisted of SMERFS (Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software). There are ten models in SMERFS. For a first run, the results obtained in modeling the cumulative number of failures versus execution time showed fairly good results for our data. Plots of cumulative software failures versus calendar weeks were made and the model results were compared with the historical data on the same graph. If the model agrees with actual historical behavior for a set of data then there is confidence in future predictions for this data. Considering the quality of the data, the models have given some significant results, even at this early stage. With better care in data collection, data analysis, recording of the fixing of failures and CPU execution times, the models should prove extremely helpful in making predictions regarding the future pattern of failures, including an estimate of the number of errors remaining in the software and the additional testing time required for the software quality to reach acceptable levels. It appears that there is no one 'best' model for all cases. It is for this reason that the aim of this project was to test several models. One of the recommendations resulting from this study is that great care must be taken in the collection of data. When using a model, the data should satisfy the model assumptions.

Lawrence, Stella↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Knocke, Philip C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Mars Exploration Rovers landing dispersion analysis

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. The JPL MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and the JPL AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cryovolcanic flooding in Viking Terra on Pluto

A prominent fossa trough (Uncama Fossa) and adjacent 28-km diameter impact crater (Hardie) in Pluto's Viking Terra, as seen in the high-resolution images from the New Horizons spacecraft, show morphological evidence of in-filling with a material of uniform texture and red-brown color. A linear fissure parallel to the trough may be the source of a fountaining event yielding a cryoclastic deposit having the same composition and color properties as is found in the trough and crater. Spectral maps of this region with the New Horizons LEISA instrument reveal the spectral signature of H2O ice in these structures and in distributed patches in the adjacent terrain in Viking Terra. A detailed statistical analysis of the spectral maps shows that the colored H2O ice filling material also carries the 2.2-μm signature of an ammoniated component that may be an ammonia hydrate (NH3·nH2O) or an ammoniated salt. This paper advances the view that the crater and fossa trough have been flooded by a cryolava debouched from Pluto's interior along fault lines in the trough and in the floor of the impact crater. The now frozen cryolava consisted of liquid H2O infused with the red-brown pigment presumed to be a tholin, and one or more ammoniated compounds. Although the abundances of the pigment and ammoniated compounds entrained in, or possibly covering, the H2O ice are unknown, the strong spectral bands of the H2O ice are clearly visible. In consideration of the factors in Pluto's space environment that are known to destroy ammonia and ammonia-water mixtures, the age of the exposure is of order ≤109 years. Ammoniated salts may be more robust, and laboratory investigations of these compounds are needed.

Pluto↗

DOE OSTI2024

Highly accelerated life testing (HALT): A review from a statistical perspective

Despite its use in one form or another for at least four decades, HALT and related techniques [e.g., highly accelerated-stress screening (HASS) and stress audits (HASA)] are not well understood within the statistical community and remain controversial. This largely reflects a conflict in motivation between engineers, testing under harsh conditions to discover and eliminate failure modes, and statisticians, taking a more cautious approach to develop quantitative estimates of parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF). Here, this review article will clarify HALT concepts and methods and explain where it fits within the universe of methods that involve the application of accelerating factors to compress the time required to evaluate or enhance product reliability. A major distinction is between methods such as HALT, a high-stress test-analyze-fix-test iterative process directed at improving reliability by discovering and fixing weak points in a design, and quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT), whose goal is the estimation of product life for a fixed design. We discuss methods such as physics of failure that offer some hope of bridging the gap between the qualitative nature of HALT, and purely quantitative statistical methods. We present a variety of engineering applications of HALT including metal fatigue, piping and pressure vessels, structural damage, radiation damage, and rotating machinery. We also discuss potential synergies between HALT and QALT, such as rapid identification, through HALT, of failure modes requiring quantitative analysis. For further study, extensive references to the applicable literature are provided as well as an appendix that describes related methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

Network Analysis of Rodent Transcriptomes in Spaceflight

Network analysis methods leverage prior knowledge of cellular systems and the statistical and conceptual relationships between analyte measurements to determine gene connectivity. Correlation and conditional metrics are used to infer a network topology and provide a systems-level context for cellular responses. Integration across multiple experimental conditions and omics domains can reveal the regulatory mechanisms that underlie gene expression. GeneLab has assembled rich multi-omic (transcriptomics, proteomics, epigenomics, and epitranscriptomics) datasets for multiple murine tissues from the Rodent Research 1 (RR-1) experiment. RR-1 assesses the impact of 37 days of spaceflight on gene expression across a variety of tissue types, such as adrenal glands, quadriceps, gastrocnemius, tibalius anterior, extensor digitorum longus, soleus, eye, and kidney. Network analysis is particularly useful for RR-1 -omics datasets because it reinforces subtle relationships that may be overlooked in isolated analyses and subdues confounding factors. Our objective is to use network analysis to determine potential target nodes for therapeutic intervention and identify similarities with existing disease models. Multiple network algorithms are used for a higher confidence consensus.

genomics↗

NASA NTRS1994

Activity Catalog Tool (ACT) user manual, version 2.0

This report comprises the user manual for version 2.0 of the Activity Catalog Tool (ACT) software program, developed by Leon D. Segal and Anthony D. Andre in cooperation with NASA Ames Aerospace Human Factors Research Division, FLR branch. ACT is a software tool for recording and analyzing sequences of activity over time that runs on the Macintosh platform. It was designed as an aid for professionals who are interested in observing and understanding human behavior in field settings, or from video or audio recordings of the same. Specifically, the program is aimed at two primary areas of interest: human-machine interactions and interactions between humans. The program provides a means by which an observer can record an observed sequence of events, logging such parameters as frequency and duration of particular events. The program goes further by providing the user with a quantified description of the observed sequence, through application of a basic set of statistical routines, and enables merging and appending of several files and more extensive analysis of the resultant data.

Segal, Leon D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic Kinetics of Polyethylene Terephthalate Pyrolysis via Micropyrolysis and Multivariate Chromatographic Analysis

This study provides an in-depth investigation of the primary decomposition of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) via pyrolysis, employing an experimental-analytic workflow that integrates design of experiments (DoE), micropyrolysis coupled with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC), and multivariate data analysis to verify intrinsic kinetic conditions and elucidate evolving product distributions for mapping key reaction pathways. Peaks that could not be identified using commercial spectral libraries were assigned using Mass Frontier simulations, enabling the identification of divinyl terephthalate, ethyl vinyl terephthalate, and 2-(benzoyloxy)ethyl vinyl terephthalate. A polar×polar (non-orthogonal) column set tailored for the detection of carboxylic acids enhanced the quantification of benzoic acid, 4-vinylbenzoic acid, 4-ethylbenzoic acid, and methylbenzoic acid by up to 6-fold relative to an orthogonal column combination (non-polar×mid-polar). Moreover, pyrolysis variables were systematically evaluated using a Box- Behnken design (BBD), encompassing pyrolysis temperature (500−600 °C), sample weight (50−150 μg), and carrier gas flow rate (100−300 mL min −1 ). Among these, pyrolysis temperature was the only statistically significant factor influencing product yields, ranging from 58.78 to 84.26 wt %. In contrast, neither the sample weight nor the carrier gas flow rate had a significant effect on product yields within the evaluated experimental space. At 600 °C, the major pyrolysis products were benzoic acid (up to 20.20 ± 1.46 wt %) and CO 2 (up to 21.28 ± 1.46 wt %), which can be produced through decarboxylation reactions. These findings underscore the critical importance of selecting appropriate analytical columns for the accurate quantification of heteroatomcontaining products such as carboxylic acids, which may otherwise be underestimated or undetected due to their reactivity with the stationary phase of non-polar and mid-polar columns, as well as other GC components. They also highlight the importance of selecting pyrolysis conditions for investigating the primary decomposition of PET under an isothermal kinetically limited regime.

aromatic compounds↗

NASA NTRS2004

Aquarius Instrument Science Calibration During the Risk Reduction Phase

This final report presents the results of work performed under NASA Grant NAG512726 during the period 15 January 2003 through 30 June 2004. An analysis was performed of a possible vicarious calibration method for use by Aquarius to monitor and stabilize the absolute and relative calibration of its microwave radiometer. Stationary statistical properties of the brightness temperature (T(sub B)) measured by a low Earth orbiting radiometer operating at 1.4135 GHz are considered as a means of validating its absolute calibration. The global minimum, maximum, and average T(sub B) are considered, together with a vicarious cold reference method that detects the presence of a sharp lower bound on naturally occurring values for T(sub B). Of particular interest is the reliability with which these statistics can be extracted from a realistic distribution of T(sub B) measurements that would be observed by a typical sensor. Simulations of measurements are performed that include the effects of instrument noise and variable environmental factors such as the global water vapor and ocean surface temperature, salinity and wind distributions. Global minima can vary widely due to instrument noise and are not a reliable calibration reference. Global maxima are strongly influenced by several environmental factors as well as instrument noise and are even less stationary. Global averages are largely insensitive to instrument noise and, in most cases, to environmental conditions as well. The global average T(sub B) varies at only the 0.1 K RMS level except in cases of anomalously high winds, when it can increase considerably more. The vicarious cold reference is similarly insensitive to instrument effects and most environmental factors. It is not significantly affected by high wind conditions. The stability of the vicarious reference is, however, found to be somewhat sensitive (at the several tenths of Kelvins level) to variations in the background cold space brightness, T(sub c). The global average is much less sensitive to this parameter and so using two approaches together can be mutually beneficial.

Ruf, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Relationships Between Sensorimotor Biomarkers and Post-Landing Functional Task Performance

Spaceflight drives adaptive changes in healthy individuals appropriate for sensorimotor function in a microgravity environment. These changes are maladaptive for return to earth's gravity. The inter-individual variability of sensorimotor decrements is striking, although poorly understood. The goal of this study was to identify a set of behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic measures that can be used to predict early post-flight performance on a set of sensorimotor tasks. Astronauts were recruited who previously participated in sensorimotor field tests and/or posturography soon after long-duration spaceflight. Behavioral tests included assessments of sensory dependency and adaptability. Visual dependency involved treadmill walking while viewing a moving virtual visual scene. Vestibular perceptual thresholds were measured while seated during lateral translations. Proprioception dependency was measured during one-legged stance on a horizontal air-bearing surface. Ground assessment of adaptability was performed (1) during treadmill walking with a virtual linear hallway and a moving walking surface, and (2) during multiple trials of navigating an obstacle course while wearing reversing prisms (adaptive Functional Mobility Test, aFMT). The neuroimaging tests characterized individual differences in regional brain volumes (using Structural MRI) and white matter microstructure (using Diffusion Tensor Imaging) to serve as potential predictors of adaptive capacity. The genetic tests utilized saliva samples to examine variations in four genes chosen because of their ability to differentiate sensorimotor adaptation ability in a normative population, including Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), Dopamine Receptor D2 (DRD2), Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and the α2-adrenergic receptor. Thirty ISS crewmembers were recruited, including 12 first-time fliers, 6F, and mission durations lasting 185.5 ± 45.5 days, mean ± std. We utilized a combination of three post-flight functional task outcomes: tandem walk, recovery from fall and dynamic posturography. There was considerable variability among all post-flight performance outcomes. Based on an ordinal scale survey, 72% indicated their ability to perform functional tasks were more impacted postflight relative to inflight with 50% indicating they needed to restrict movements for a longer period postflight relative to inflight. While there is a strong association within tests obtained at different R+0 timepoints, by R+24 hr performance on one post-flight test does not necessarily correlate with performance on other post-flight tests. Preliminary statistical analysis indicates combining biomarkers will increase predictive power and this will be explored with future analyses. Our preliminary findings underscore the importance of a comprehensive post-flight test battery including different types of tasks with varying sensory feedback. Understanding the relationships between these sensorimotor biomarkers and post-flight functional task performance improve both our understanding of the individual variability and our strategy to optimize sensorimotor countermeasures.

biomarkers↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole↗

DOE OSTI2024

New insight into knockout reactions from the two-proton halo nucleus 17 Ne

The unexplained disagreement in the dependence of spectroscopic factors (𝐶2⁢𝑆 exp ) on the binding energy obtained by nucleon knockout using different targets is still a puzzle that needs to be addressed. To find an explanation of this riddle through exclusive measurements using different targets. The exclusive measurements were performed by using a 17 Ne beam with an energy of 500 MeV/u incident on C and CH 2 targets. Through the standard theoretical approach, 𝐶 2⁢ 𝑆 exp were derived from the analysis of the experimental data on proton ejection from the proton halo in 17 Ne as well as from its core 15 O. For the C target, proton ejection from the proton halo gave 𝐶 2 ⁢𝑆 exp about 37% smaller than for the H target. But when protons are ejected from the core of 17 Ne, 𝐶 2 ⁢𝑆 exp are identical within statistical uncertainties. An explanation for the difference in 𝐶 2 ⁢𝑆 exp could be the removal of both halo protons, a more important reaction pathway for the C target. The 𝐶 2 ⁢𝑆 exp values obtained by analyzing the proton ejection from the core indicate that it is not affected by the interaction with the halo protons.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

NASA NTRS2013

Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software: Phase 2 Summary

NASA has used aerobraking at Mars and Venus to reduce the fuel required to deliver a spacecraft into a desired orbit compared to an all-propulsive solution. Although aerobraking reduces the propellant, it does so at the expense of mission duration, large staff, and DSN coverage. These factors make aerobraking a significant cost element in the mission design. By moving on-board the current ground-based tasks of ephemeris determination, atmospheric density estimation, and maneuver sizing and execution, a flight project would realize significant cost savings. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) sponsored Phase 1 and 2 of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software (AADS) study, which demonstrated the initial feasibility of moving these current ground-based functions to the spacecraft. This paper highlights key state-of-the-art advancements made in the Phase 2 effort to verify that the AADS algorithms are accurate, robust and ready to be considered for application on future missions that utilize aerobraking. The advancements discussed herein include both model updates and simulation and benchmark testing. Rigorous testing using observed flight atmospheres, operational environments and statistical analysis characterized the AADS operability in a perturbed environment.

Cianciolo, Alicia D.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Update to NASA's Clinical Practice Guideline for Renal Stone Surveillance in U.S. Astronauts

BACKGROUND: For the past 9 years all NASA astronauts received specialized renal ultrasound screening for precursors to renal stones, our so called “mineralized renal material” (MRM), to reduce the possibility of sending a person to space with a renal stone that could cause morbidity and threaten mission objectives. A recent analysis of this data shows no increased incidence of clinical or sub-clinical renal stones associated with spaceflight; thus, our clinical practice guideline has been updated. OVERVIEW: Astronauts previously received a renal ultrasound screening at selection and at every annual recertification exam. In total, 73 individuals have been scanned and 282 total studies have been performed as of April 2023.This data shows no observed statistical change seen in MRM burden pre-to postflight, therefore a reduction in the frequency of the screening exams is appropriate. DISCUSSION: Data presented in this panel have shown no direct correlation between spaceflight and development of MRM or renal stones in astronaut kidneys out to at least 6 months of spaceflight. The MRM burden does not seem to change appreciably over time and so far, has no demonstrated correlation to external factors. Therefore, we find it appropriate, in lieu of yearly exams, to reduce the frequency of screening to: initial selection, first annual exam after selection, and pre/postflight. This balances the screening frequency of our astronauts, against the potential for unnecessary medical procedures, while still serving the purpose of risk reduction.

D Reyes↗

NASA NTRS2016

Astronaut Clothing for Exploration Missions

Astronaut clothes for exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit need to satisfy several challenges not met by the currently-used mostly-cotton clothing. A laundering system is not expected to be available, and thus soiled garments must be trashed. Jettisoning waste does not seem feasible at this time. The cabin oxygen concentration is expected to be higher than standard, and thus fabrics must better resist ignition and burning. Fabrics need to be identified that reduce logistical mass, that can be worn longer before disposal, that are at least as comfortable as cotton, and that resist ignition or that char immediately after ignition. Human factors and psychology indicate that crew well-being and morale require a variety of colors and styles to accommodate personal identity and preferences. Over the past four years, the Logistics Reduction Project under NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Program has sponsored the Advanced Clothing System Task to conduct several ground studies and one ISS study. These studies have evaluated length of wear and personal preferences of commercially-available exercise- and routine-wear garments made from several fabrics (cotton, polyester, Merino wool, and modacrylic), woven and knitted. Note that Merino wool and modacrylic char like cotton in ambient air, while polyester unacceptably melts. This paper focuses on the two components of an International Space Station study, onboard and on the ground, with astronauts and cosmonauts. Fabrics were randomized to participants. Length of wear was assessed by statistical survival analysis, and preference by exact binomial confidence limits. Merino wool and modacrylic t-shirts were worn longer on average than polyester t-shirts. Interestingly, self-assessed preferences were inconsistent with length-of-wear behavior, as polyester was preferred to Merino wool and modacrylic.

Poritz, Darwin H.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Peru Health and Air Quality II: Leveraging Earth Observations and Health Data to Map Outbreak Risk and Inform Public Health Interventions for Zoonotic Disease Prevention

Peru's Madre de Dios region is a hotspot for dengue fever and leishmaniasis due to its tropical Amazonian climate. Though treatable, these zoonotic diseases are debilitating for under-resourced communities whose already close proximity to mosquito and sandfly vectors continues to increase via rapid urbanization and deforestation. Peru’s Ministries of Health (MINSA) and Environment (MINAM) are working to better understand the environmental factors amplifying the risk of dengue fever and leishmaniasis transmission. The first term of this project classified the land use and land cover of Madre de Dios’ 11 districts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 and identified a correlation between both diseases and urbanization. Our team expanded this analysis by creating urban-forest edge maps and incorporating climatic and topographic variables with data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). We determined these variables’ impacts on disease incidence by assessing existing literature and running regression models. Dengue fever correlated with urban-forest edge, urban area, slope, temperature, and precipitation. Leishmaniasis primarily correlated with forest-edge area and elevation, but lacking additional statistical significance prevented further work, a decision supported by the literature. Thus, the risk matrix and risk map which we scripted in R to visualize the risk of disease posed to districts alongside health post locations addresses only dengue fever. The results and products will inform MINSA and MINAM in public health interventions, resource distribution, and policy initiatives.

Jennifer Rogers↗