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At least 451 records · Page 25

Solar activity and the weather

Some evidence that the weather is influenced by solar activity is reviewed. It appears that the solar magnetic sector structure is related to the circulation of the earth's atmosphere during local winter. About 31/2 days after the passage of a sector boundary the maximum effect is seen: apparently the height of all pressure surfaces increases in high latitudes leading to anticyclogenesis, whereas at midlatitudes the height of the pressure surfaces decreases leading to low pressure systems or to deepening of existing systems. This later effect is clearly seen as an increase in the area of the base of air with absolute vorticity exceeding a given threshold. Since the increase of geomagnetic activity generally is small at a sector boundary, it is speculated that geomagnetic activity as such is not the cause of the response to the sector structure, but that both weather and geomagnetic activity are influenced by the same (unknown) mechanism.

Svalgaard, L.↗

Solar activity and the weather

Some new evidence that the weather is influenced by solar activity is reviewed. It appears that the solar magnetic sector structure is related to the circulation of the earth's atmosphere during local winter. About 3 1/2 days after the passage of a sector boundary the maximum effect is seen; apparently the height of all pressure surfaces increases in high latitudes leading to anticyclogenesis, whereas at midlatitudes the height of the pressure surfaces decreases leading to low pressure systems or to deepening of existing systems. This later effect is clearly seen as an increase in the area of the base of air with absolute vorticity exceeding a given threshold. Since the increase of geomagnetic activity generally is small at a sector boundary it is speculated that geomagnetic activity as such is not the cause of the response to the sector structure but that both weather and geomagnetic activity are influenced by the same (unknown) mechanism.

Svalgaard, L.↗

A theoretical study of the global F region for June solstice, solar maximum, and low magnetic activity

A time-dependent, three-dimensional, multi-ion model of the ionospheric F region at 120-800 km altitude is presented. Account is taken of field-aligned diffusion, cross-field electrodynamic drifts in equatorial and high latitude regions, interhemispheric flow, thermospheric winds, polar wind escape, energy-dependent chemical reactions and neutral composition changes. Attention is also given to the effects of ion production by solar EUV radiation and auroral precipitation, thermal conduction, diffusion-thermal heat flow, local heating and cooling processes, offsets between the geomagnetic and geographic poles, and bending of field lines near the magnetic equator. The model incorporates all phenomena described by previous models and can be applied to tracing magnetic storm and substorm disturbances from high to low latitudes on a global scale. Sample results are provided for ionospheric features during a June solstice, the solar maximum and in a period of low geomagnetic activity. The model will eventually be used to study coupled ionosphere-thermosphere activity.

Sojka, J. J.↗

Atomic oxygen exposure of LDEF experiment trays

Atomic oxygen exposures were determined analytically for rows, longerons, and end bays of the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). The calculations are based on an analytical model that accounts for the effects of thermal molecular velocity, atmospheric temperature, number density, spacecraft velocity, incidence angle, and atmospheric rotation on atomic oxygen flux. Results incorporate variations in solar activity, geomagnetic index, and orbital parameters occurring over the 6-year flight of the spacecraft. To facilitate use of the data, both detailed tabulations and summary charts for atomic oxygen fluences are presented.

Bourassa, R. J.↗

Natural Hazards of the Space Environment

Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are subject to numerous environmental hazards. Here I'll briefly discuss three environment factors that pose acute threats to the survival of spacecraft systems and crew: atmospheric drag, impacts by meteoroids and orbital debris, and ionizing radiation. Atmospheric drag continuously opposes the orbital motion of a satellite, causing the orbit to decay. This decay will lead to reentry if not countered by reboost maneuvers. Orbital debris is a by-product of man's activities in space, and consists of objects ranging in size from miniscule paint chips to spent rocket stages and dead satellites. Ionizing radiation experienced in LEO has several components: geomagnetically trapped protons and electrons (Van Allen belts); energetic solar particles; galactic cosmic rays; and albedo neutrons. These particles can have several types of prompt harmful effects on equipment and crew, from single-event upsets, latchup, and burnout of electronics, to lethal doses to crew.All three types of prompt threat show some dependence on the solar activity cycle. Atmospheric drag mitigation and large debris avoidance require propulsive maneuvers. M/OD and ionizing radiation require some form of shielding for crew and sensitive equipment. Limiting exposure time is a mitigation technique for ionizing radiation and meteor streams.

Evans, Steven W.↗

A theory of neutral gas emissions from a plasma contactor and its effect on electrodynamic tether performance

An existing anisotropic anodic plasma contactor model is extended to include neutral gas emissions. Within the framework of the contactor model, the inclusion of external ionization leads to an integrodifferential equation. By choosing the ratio of the contactor radius to the neutral gas-electron ionization mean free path at the contactor exit as a suitable expansion parameter, an analytical expression for the current-voltage characteristic can be found. The performance of this contactor model is examined via a dynamic simulation model developed for electrodynamic tethers. Detailed models of the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere are used to create a realistic environment. The highly nonlinear contactor voltagle-current characteristic is incorporated into a circuit equation, which includes radiation impedance, and is solved along the tether's orbit. Results show that it is more effective to fully ionize the contactor gas internally, than to partially ionize it externally, and that based on the specific power for the tether system, the optimum gas to use is argon. In addition, the effect of the radiation impedance on tether system performance is examined.

Roy, R. I. S.↗

Comparison of periodic and other characteristics of geomagnetic and meterological rocket data

The temporal variations in stratospheric winds and temperatures with the geomagnetic field elements were compared. From a periodic analysis of the geomagnetic field elements the amplitude and phase of the quasibiennial, annual, and semiannual waves are given for stations from 1 degree S to 89 degree N. These results are then compared with corresponding waves reported in rocketsonde wind and temperature data. The annual waves are found to be coupled as a result of the annual variation in the dynamo effect of the wind in the lower ionosphere. The semiannual waves are also found to be coupled and three possible causes for the extra tropical stratospheric semiannual wind wave are discussed. Time variance spectra for the interval from 4 days to 44 days in both zonal winds and horizontal geomagnetic field intensity are compared for years when major midwinter warmings occur and years when only minor warmings occur. The noted differences are suggested to arise from upward propagating planetary waves which are absorbed or refracted in varying amounts depending on the prevailing circulation.

Nastrom, G. D.↗

Using the moon to probe the geomagnetic tail lobe plasma

We have detected the presence of plasma in the lobes of the geomagnetic tail from observations of magnetic induction in the moon forced by time variations of the earth's magnetotail lobe field. The magnitude of the moon's tangential electromagnetic transfer function when the moon is in the lobes of the geomagnetic tail is less than that when the moon is in the solar wind or geomagnetic tail plasma sheet. The tangential transfer function when the moon is in the magnetotail lobes decreases at frequencies above about 8 mHz due to finite wavelength effects. This shows that the waves in the magnetotail lobes which drive the lunar magnetic induction must have speeds far less than the speed of light and wavelengths comparable to the size of the moon.

Schubert, G.↗

Faraday polarization fluctuations of satellite beacon signals

The anisotropic effects of random density irregularities in causing Faraday polarization fluctuations of VHF radio signals are examined, taking both rod-like and sheet-like irregularities into consideration. It is found that the variance of Faraday polarization fluctuations depends on the ratio of perpendicular to parallel correlation lengths. The anisotropic effect of rod-like ionospheric irregularities are shown to be most appreciable for longitudinal propagation. The anisotropic effect of sheet-like ionospheric irregularities, however, is not strongly dependent on the radio propagation angle. During transionospheric propagation at large angles with respect to the geomagnetic field, sheet-like irregularities may cause greater Faraday polarization fluctuations than rod-like irregularities.

Lee, M. C.↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Terrestrial Planets

The session "Terrestrial Planets: included:Lunar Soils May Tell Us When the Geomagnetic Field First Appeared; Metal-Silicate Segregation in Deforming Dunitic Rocks: Applications to Core Formation in Europa and Ganymede; Diamond Formation in Core Segregation Experiments; The Effect of Pressure on Potassium Partitioning Between Metallic Liquid and Silicate Melt; Reduction of W, Mn, and Fe, During High-Temperature Vaporization; Micrometeoritic Neon in the Earth s Mantle ; and New Analyses of Diverse Hadean Zircon Inclusions from Jack Hills.

Source record↗

Multi-Variate LSTM Prediction of Alaska Magnetometer Chain Utilizing a Coupled Model Approach

During periods of rapidly changing geomagnetic conditions electric fields form within the Earth’s surface and induce currents known as geomagnetically induced currents(GICs), which interact with unprotected electrical systems our society relies on. In this study, we train multi-variate Long-Short Term Memory neural networks to predict magnitude of north-south component of the geomagnetic field (|BN|) at multiple ground magnetometer stations across Alaska provided by the SuperMAG database with a future goal of predicting geomagnetic field disturbances. Each neural network is driven by solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field inputs from the NASA OMNI database spanning from 2000–2015 and is fine tuned for each station to maximize the effectiveness in predicting |BN|. The neural networks are then compared against multivariate linear regression models driven with the same inputs at each station using Heidke skill scores with thresholds at the 50, 75, 85, and 99 percentiles for |BN|. The neural network models show significant increases over the linear regression models for |BN| thresholds. We also calculate the Heidke skill scores for d|BN|/dt by deriving d|BN|/dt from |BN| predictions. However, neural network models do not show clear outperformance compared to the linear regression models. To retain the sign information and thus predict BN instead of |BN|, a secondary so-called polarity model is utilized. The polarity model is run in tandem with the neural networks predicting geomagnetic field in a coupled model approach and results in a high correlation between predicted and observed values for all stations. We find this model a promising starting point for a machine learned geomagnetic field model to be expanded upon through increased output time history and fast turnaround times.

Matthew Blandin↗

A new dynamical atmospheric ionizing radiation (AIR) model for epidemiological studies

A new Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) model is currently being developed for use in radiation dose evaluation in epidemiological studies targeted to atmospheric flight personnel such as civilian airlines crewmembers. The model will allow computing values for biologically relevant parameters, e.g. dose equivalent and effective dose, for individual flights from 1945. Each flight is described by its actual three dimensional flight profile, i.e. geographic coordinates and altitudes varying with time. Solar modulated primary particles are filtered with a new analytical fully angular dependent geomagnetic cut off rigidity model, as a function of latitude, longitude, arrival direction, altitude and time. The particle transport results have been obtained with a technique based on the three-dimensional Monte Carlo transport code FLUKA, with a special procedure to deal with HZE particles. Particle fluxes are transformed into dose-related quantities and then integrated all along the flight path to obtain the overall flight dose. Preliminary validations of the particle transport technique using data from the AIR Project ER-2 flight campaign of measurements are encouraging. Future efforts will deal with modeling of the effects of the aircraft structure as well as inclusion of solar particle events. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Aviation↗

Ground Effects of the 2024 Mother’s Day Superstorm: A Multi-source Observational Analysis

This report presents a brief review of the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm and its impacts on the near-Earth space environment and the ground-level effects, with emphasis on the latter. Drawing upon observations from multiple sources. we qualitatively illustrate how intense space weather disturbances can generate strong geoelectric fields and drive pronounced geomagnetically induced currents, as reported at numerous locations, particularly within the New Zealand power grids.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The direction and spectral variability of a cosmic gamma-ray burst

Description of the simultaneous observations of a gamma-ray event by five different satellites on May 14, 1972 in widely differing geomagnetic environments. The direction of the source was unambiguously determined, and it is concluded that the event was real and not caused by some unexplained spurious or instrumental effects. Since the obtained direction is far from the earth and the sun, the conclusion is that this gamma-ray event was almost certainly of cosmic origin. The total energy at the earth in this event was about .0005 ergs/sq cm from 11 to 1500 keV.

Wheaton, W. A.↗

Secondary emission effects on spacecraft charging: Energy distribution considerations

The conditions under which multiple valued solutions occur by computing the floating potential of an isolated eclipses surface on a geosynchronous orbit spacecraft were examined. Different approximations for the electron spectra during a geomagnetic substorm were used. The result indicates that if the incident electron flux has a Maxwellian energy distribution, the ratio of the secondary emitted current to the incident electron current is independent of the spacecraft potential. In this case a single value solution to the current equation occurs.

Sanders, N. L.↗

The role of predicted solar activity in TOPEX/Poseidon orbit maintenance maneuver design

Following launch in June 1992, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite will be placed in a near-circular frozen orbit at an altitude of about 1336 km. Orbit maintenance maneuvers are planned to assure all nodes of the 127-orbit 10-day repeat ground track remain within a 2 km equatorial longitude bandwidth. Orbit determination, maneuver execution, and atmospheric drag prediction errors limit overall targeting performance. This paper focuses on the effects of drag modeling errors, with primary emphasis on the role of SESC solar activity predictions, especially the 27-day outlook of the 10.7 cm solar flux and geomagnetic index used by a simplified version of the Jacchia-Roberts density model developed for this TOPEX/Poseidon application. For data evaluated from 1983-90, the SESC outlook performed better than a simpler persistence strategy, especially during the first 7-10 days. A targeting example illustrates the use of ground track biasing to compensate for expected orbit predictions errors, emphasizing the role of solar activity prediction errors.

Frauenholz, Raymond B.↗

Impact assessment of geomagnetic induced current neutral blocking devices with power electronics sources on distance relay for 230 kV transmission lines

Electrical grids increased the integration of power electronics sources onto transmission lines. In addition, recent reports show a significant rise in geomagnetic storms occurring in 2024. These geomagnetic storms can affect transmission lines by inducing electrical currents within them, potentially causing power outages due to overloaded power transformers. Geomagnetic induced current neutral blocking devices (GIC-NBDs) are capacitors on the ground of wye power transformers, to avoid damage caused by geomagnetic storms. The integration of distance relays and transmission lines with power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs needs to be studied to observe if GIC-NBDs and power electronics sources could adversely affect operation of the electrical grid. In this analysis, the effect of 2 MW power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs on distance relays is assessed for different 230 kV transmission line lengths in radial and nonradial power systems. The simulations measured the apparent impedances, with different electrical faults. Results for a typical 2,650 μF GIC-NBD application were presented on impedance plots, and the distance relay model operations were assessed. In conclusion, the tests for radial and nonradial power systems showed the behavior of the distance elements and source impedance ratios, assessing the effect of power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs on 230 kV transmission lines.

Distance relays↗

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗