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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning with bond information for local structure optimizations in surface science

Local optimization of adsorption systems inherently involves different scales: within the substrate, within the molecule, and between the molecule and the substrate. In this work, we show how the explicit modeling of different characteristics of the bonds in these systems improves the performance of machine learning methods for optimization. Furthermore, we introduce an anisotropic kernel in the Gaussian process regression framework that guides the search for the local minimum, and we show its overall good performance across different types of atomic systems. The method shows a speed-up of up to a factor of two compared with the fastest standard optimization methods on adsorption systems. Additionally, we show that a limited memory approach is not only beneficial in terms of overall computational resources but can also result in a further reduction of energy and force calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Special Issue: Geostatistics and Machine Learning

Abstract Recent years have seen a steady growth in the number of papers that apply machine learning methods to problems in the earth sciences. Although they have different origins, machine learning and geostatistics share concepts and methods. For example, the kriging formalism can be cast in the machine learning framework of Gaussian process regression. Machine learning, with its focus on algorithms and ability to seek, identify, and exploit hidden structures in big data sets, is providing new tools for exploration and prediction in the earth sciences. Geostatistics, on the other hand, offers interpretable models of spatial (and spatiotemporal) dependence. This special issue on Geostatistics and Machine Learning aims to investigate applications of machine learning methods as well as hybrid approaches combining machine learning and geostatistics which advance our understanding and predictive ability of spatial processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning in nuclear materials research

Nuclear materials are often demanded to function for extended time in extreme environments, including high radiation fluxes with associated transmutations, high temperature and temperature gradients, mechanical stresses, and corrosive coolants. They also have a wide range of microstructural and chemical makeups, resulting in multifaceted and often out-of-equilibrium interactions. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used to tackle these complex time-dependent interactions and aid researchers in developing models and making predictions, sometimes with better accuracy than traditional modeling that focuses on one or two parameters at a time. Conventional practices of acquiring new experimental data in nuclear materials research are often slow and expensive, limiting the opportunity for data-centric ML, but new methods are changing that paradigm. Here we review high-throughput computational and experimental data approaches, especially robotic experimentation and active learning that is based on Gaussian process and Bayesian optimization. We show ML examples in structural materials (e.g., reactor pressure vessel (RPV) alloys and radiation detecting scintillating materials) and highlight new techniques of high-throughput sample preparation and characterizations, and automated radiation/environmental exposures and real-time online diagnostics. Herein, this review suggests that ML models of material constitutive relations in plasticity, damage, and even electronic and optical responses to radiation are likely to become powerful tools as they develop. Finally, we speculate on how the recent trends of using natural language processing (NLP) to aid the collection and analysis of literature data, interpretable artificial intelligence (AI), and the use of streamlined scripting, database, workflow management, and cloud computing platforms that will soon make the utilization of ML techniques as commonplace as the spreadsheet curve-fitting practices of today.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Random field optimization

Herein we present a new modeling paradigm for optimization that we call random field optimization. Random fields are a powerful modeling abstraction that aims to capture the behavior of random variables that live on infinite-dimensional spaces (e.g., space and time) such as stochastic processes (e.g., time series, Gaussian processes, and Markov processes), random matrices, and random spatial fields. This paradigm involves sophisticated mathematical objects (e.g., stochastic differential equations and space-time kernel functions) and has been widely used in neuroscience, geoscience, physics, civil engineering, and computer graphics. Despite of this, however, random fields have seen limited use in optimization; specifically, existing optimization paradigms that involve uncertainty (e.g., stochastic programming and robust optimization) mostly focus on the use of finite random variables. This trend is rapidly changing with the advent of statistical optimization (e.g., Bayesian optimization) and multi-scale optimization (e.g., integration of molecular sciences and process engineering). Our work extends a recently-proposed abstraction for infinite-dimensional optimization problems by capturing more general uncertainty representations. Moreover, we discuss solution paradigms for this new class of problems based on finite transformations and sampling, and identify open questions and challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low- z IGM using likelihood free inference

ABSTRACT We present a new approach to measure the power-law temperature density relationship $T=T_0 (\rho/ \bar{\rho })^{\gamma -1}$ and the UV background photoionization rate $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ of the intergalactic medium (IGM) based on the Voigt profile decomposition of the Ly α forest into a set of discrete absorption lines with Doppler parameter b and the neutral hydrogen column density $N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}$. Previous work demonstrated that the shape of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution is sensitive to the IGM thermal parameters T0 and γ, whereas our new inference algorithm also takes into account the normalization of the distribution, i.e. the line-density dN/dz, and we demonstrate that precise constraints can also be obtained on $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$. We use density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) to emulate the dependence of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution on IGM parameters trained on an ensemble of 624 nyx hydrodynamical simulations at z = 0.1, which we combine with a Gaussian process emulator of the normalization. To demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, we generate hundreds of realizations of realistic mock HST/COS data sets, each comprising 34 quasar sightlines, and forward model the noise and resolution to match the real data. We use this large ensemble of mocks to extensively test our inference and empirically demonstrate that our posterior distributions are robust. Our analysis shows that by applying our new approach to existing Ly α forest spectra at z ≃ 0.1, one can measure the thermal and ionization state of the IGM with very high precision ($\sigma _{\log T_0} \sim 0.08$ dex, σγ ∼ 0.06, and $\sigma _{\log \Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}} \sim 0.07$ dex).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Gaussian process metamodels and sequential designs for noisy level set estimation

Abstract We consider the problem of learning the level set for which a noisy black-box function exceeds a given threshold. To efficiently reconstruct the level set, we investigate Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. Our focus is on strongly stochastic simulators, in particular with heavy-tailed simulation noise and low signal-to-noise ratio. To guard against noise misspecification, we assess the performance of three variants: (i) GPs with Student- t observations; (ii) Student- t processes (TPs); and (iii) classification GPs modeling the sign of the response. In conjunction with these metamodels, we analyze several acquisition functions for guiding the sequential experimental designs, extending existing stepwise uncertainty reduction criteria to the stochastic contour-finding context. This also motivates our development of (approximate) updating formulas to efficiently compute such acquisition functions. Our schemes are benchmarked by using a variety of synthetic experiments in 1–6 dimensions. We also consider an application of level set estimation for determining the optimal exercise policy of Bermudan options in finance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian approximation potential for amorphous Si : H

Hydrogenation of amorphous silicon (a–Si : H) is critical for reducing defect densities, passivating midgap states and surfaces, and improving photoconductivity in silicon-based electro-optical devices. Modeling the atomic-scale structure of this material is critical to understanding these processes, which in turn is needed to describe c–Si/a–Si : H heterojunctions that are at the heart of modern solar cells with world-record efficiency. Density functional theory (DFT) studies achieve the required high accuracy but are limited to moderate system sizes of 100 atoms or so by their high computational cost. Simulations of amorphous materials have been hindered by this high cost because large structural models are required to capture the medium-range order that is characteristic of such materials. Empirical potential models are much faster, but their accuracy is not sufficient to correctly describe the frustrated local structure. Data-driven, machine-learned interatomic potentials have broken this impasse and have been highly successful in describing a variety of amorphous materials in their elemental phase. Here, we extend the Gaussian approximation potential (GAP) for silicon by incorporating the interaction with hydrogen, thereby significantly improving the degree of realism with which amorphous silicon can be modeled. We show that our Si : H GAP enables the simulation of hydrogenated silicon with an accuracy very close to DFT but with computational expense and run times reduced by several orders of magnitude for large structures. Here, we demonstrate the capabilities of the Si : H GAP by creating models of hydrogenated liquid and amorphous silicon and showing that their energies, forces, and stresses are in excellent agreement with DFT results, and their structure as captured by bond and angle distributions are in agreement with both DFT and experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of post-breakup Coulomb acceleration using a trajectory model

Intermediate mass fragments ejected during the deexcitation of excited projectilelike fragments may promptly decay following ejection; the daughter particles that are subsequently produced are subject to interactions with the residual nucleus that affect final-state observables, a process herein referred to as post-breakup Coulomb acceleration. A simple classical Coulomb interaction model was used to study modification of 8 Be (2 + ), 5 Li (3/2 – ), 7 Li (7/2 – ), 7 Be (7/2 – ), and states in 12 B emitted following heavy-ion collisions of 28 Si + 12 C at 35 MeV/nucleon. Here, in contrast to previous work studying 8 Be (2 + ), excellent agreement between simulation and experiment was obtained using only Coulomb forces when either a Lorentzian or R-matrix line shape was used to describe the initial relative energy rather than a Gaussian. In consideration of the obtained results, improvements to the model and evaluation of experimental data are discussed as future directions, but it was concluded that the effects observed in the present data can be accurately described using only elements of classical mechanics and that the process is largely understood for a wide range of state lifetimes and mass and charge (a)symmetries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microscopic constraints for the equation of state and structure of neutron stars: A Bayesian model mixing framework

Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a statistical technique that can combine constraints from different regions of an input space in a principled way. Here we extend our BMM framework for the equation of state (EOS) of strongly interacting matter from symmetric nuclear matter to asymmetric matter, specifically focusing on zero-temperature, charge-neutral, 𝛽-equilibrated matter. We use Gaussian processes (GPs) to infer constraints on the neutron-star matter EOS at intermediate densities from two different microscopic theories: chiral effective-field theory (𝜒⁢EFT) at baryon densities around nuclear saturation, 𝑛 𝐵 ∼ 𝑛 0 , and perturbative QCD at asymptotically high baryon densities, 𝑛 𝐵 ⩾ 20⁢𝑛 0 . The uncertainties of the 𝜒⁢EFT and pQCD EOSs are obtained using the BUQEYE truncation error model. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through the use of two categories of GP kernels: conventional stationary kernels and a nonstationary changepoint kernel. We use the latter to explore potential constraints on the dense matter EOS by including exogenous data representing theory predictions and heavy-ion collision measurements at densities ⩾ 2⁢𝑛 0 . We also use our EOSs to obtain neutron-star mass-radius relations and their uncertainties. Finally, our framework, whose implementation will be available through a GitHub repository, provides a prior distribution for the EOS that can be used in large-scale neutron-star inference frameworks.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty guided online ensemble for non-stationary data streams in fusion science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior with distribution drifts, resulted by both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with such non-stationary data streams. Online learning techniques have been leveraged in other domains, however it has been largely unexplored for fusion applications. In this paper, we investigate online learning for continuous adaptation to drifting data streams in the prediction of Toroidal Field (TF) coils deflection at the DIII-D fusion facility. We further address the short-term performance degradation inherent to standard online learning, which arises because ground truth is unavailable at prediction time. To mitigate this issue, we propose an uncertainty-guided online ensemble framework. The method leverages the Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) for calibrated uncertainty estimation and uses these uncertainty measures to guide a meta-algorithm that aggregates predictions from learners trained over different historical horizons. Our results show that online learning reduces prediction error by 80% compared to a static model. The online ensemble and the proposed uncertainty-guided ensemble further reduce error by approximately 6%, and 10% respectively, relative to standard single-model online learning, while also providing calibrated uncertainty estimates to support operational decision-making.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2021

fvGP v2.2.0

fvGP is a flexible Gaussian process API that enables gpCAM, a software recently submitted, to do uncertainty quantification and steer data acquisition autonomously. In short, given a bunch of data, fvGP can find the most likely model creating the data and the model's uncertainty.

Noack, Marcus↗
DOE OSTI2021

GLEAM: Galaxy Line Emission & Absorption Modeling

We present Galaxy Line Emission & Absorption Modeling (gleam), a Python tool for fitting Gaussian models to emission and absorption lines in large samples of 1D extragalactic spectra. gleam is tailored to work well in batch mode without much human interaction. With gleam, users can uniformly process a variety of spectra, including galaxies and active galactic nuclei, in a wide range of instrument setups and signal-to-noise regimes. gleam also takes advantage of multiprocessing capabilities to process spectra in parallel. With the goal of enabling reproducible workflows for its users, gleam employs a small number of input files, including a central, user-friendly configuration in which fitting constraints can be defined for groups of spectra and overrides can be specified for edge cases. For each spectrum, gleam produces a table containing measurements and error bars for the detected spectral lines and continuum and upper limits for nondetections. For visual inspection and publishing, gleam can also produce plots of the data with fitted lines overlaid. In the present paper, we describe gleam’s main features, the necessary inputs, expected outputs, and some example applications, including thorough tests on a large sample of optical/infrared multi-object spectroscopic observations and integral field spectroscopic data. gleam is developed as an open-source project hosted at https://github.com/multiwavelength/gleam and welcomes community contributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Order Models Generation for HTGRs Pebble Shuffling Procedure Optimization Studies

This report provides an initial study for producing reduced-order models (ROMs) of pebble-bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR) models for the purposes of design optimization. As an initial study, this work is meant to be exploratory---identifying useful workflows and methods for ROM generation---and not meant to be a catch-all analysis of HTGR ROM generation and usage for optimization. This report summarizes three tasks performed in Fiscal Year 2022: 1) the creation of HTGR model, 2) the sensitivity analysis of model design parameters, and 3) an introduction to ROM generation techniques. The representative HTGR model created in this work is a multiphysics equilibrium-core using the BlueCRAB (comprehensive reactor analysis bundle) reactor analysis application, coupling four physical phenomena: neutronics, streamline depletion, porous flow thermal hydraulics, and pebble heat conduction. Part of the model creation was identifying some design parameters and quantities of interest that are relevant in an optimization analysis and adjustable in the model. The sensitivity analysis utilized a polynomial chaos expansion methodology to compute global sensitivity metrics. This analysis showed that thermal hydraulics parameters and quantities of interest had a relatively small impact on simulation results. Finally, the ROM generation work involved exploring three different ROM methodologies: polynomial regression, a Gaussian process, and artificial neural networks. Using a cross-validation technique to characterize ROM performance, the Gaussian process and single-layer artificial neural networks showed the most promising results. Overall, this study was insightful and the lessons learned will be invaluable for the eventual development of an HTGR design optimization workflow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Stochastic Differential Equations for Modeling Quasar Variability and Inferring Black Hole Properties

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar’s brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗