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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Movement-Based Traffic Volume Prediction at Signalized Intersections

The traffic volume of each movement at signalized intersections can provide valuable information on real-time traffic conditions that enable traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuated traffic demands. Real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction is challenging due to various nonlinear spatial relationships at different locations/approaches and the complicated underlying temporal dependencies. In this study, a novel deep intersection spatial-temporal network (DISTN) is developed for real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections, which considers both spatial and temporal features by the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. In addition, the within-day, daily, and weekly periodic trends of traffic volume are also considered in the proposed model. This is the first time that a deep-learning method has been applied for movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections. In the numerical experiment, the proposed model is evaluated using real-world data and simulation data to demonstrate its effectiveness. The impacts of various structures of traffic networks on the proposed model are also discussed. Results show that the proposed model outperforms some of the state-of-the-art volume prediction methods currently in the literature.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MODELING OF THE CFR ENGINE FOR THE INVESTIGATION OF SI NATURAL GAS COMBUSTION AND CONTROLLED END-GAS AUTOIGNITION

Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to high-efficiency Spark-Ignited (SI) Natural Gas engines. The general tendency to knock is highly dependent on engine operating conditions and the fuel reactivity. The problem is further complicated by low emission limits and the wide range of chemical reactivity in pipeline quality natural gas. Depending on the region and the source of the natural gas, its reactivity, described by its methane number (analogous to the octane number for liquid SI fuels) can span from 65 - 95. In order to realize diesel-like efficiencies, SI natural gas engines must be designed to operate at high BMEP near knock limits over a wide range of fuel reactivity. This requires a deep understanding regarding the combustion-engine interactions pertaining to flame propagation and end-gas autoignition (EGAI). However, EGAI, if controlled, provides an opportunity to increase SI natural gas engine efficiency by increasing combustion rate and the total burned fuel, mitigating the effects of the slow flame speeds of natural gas fuels which generally reduce BMEP and increase unburned hydrocarbon emissions. For this reason, in order to study EGAI phenomenon, the present work highlights multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine. The CFR engine models are used to investigate fuel-engine interactions that lead to EGAI with natural gas, including effects of fuel reactivity, engine operating parameters, and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). A Three-Pressure Analysis, performed with GT-Power, was used to estimate initial and boundary conditions for the three-dimensional CFD model. CONVERGE CFD v2.4 was used for the three-dimensional CFD modeling where the level set G-Equation model and SAGE detailed chemical kinetics solver were used. An assessment of the different modeling approaches is also provided to evaluate their limitations, advantages and disadvantages, and for which situations they are most applicable. Model validation was performed with experimental data taken with a CFR engine over varying compression ratio, CA50, EGR fraction, and IMEP and shows good agreement in Peak Cylinder Pressure (PCP), PCP crank angle, and the location of the 10%, 50%, and 90% mass fraction burned (CA10, CA50, and CA90, respectively). The models can predict the onset crank angle and pressure rise rate for light, medium, and heavy EGAI under a variety of fuel reactivities and engine operating conditions.

Bestel, Diego↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamics modeling of molten salt reactor with reduced and expanded representations of delayed neutron precursors

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) present unique challenges in dynamic behavior due to the mobility of their fuel. In these reactors, delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) drift with the fuel circulation through the primary loop. As a result, a fraction of DNPs decays outside the core, effectively reducing the available delayed neutron population for reactivity control. Consequently, precise modeling of the distribution and behavior of DNPs is critical for accurate reactor dynamics simulations. In this study, the System Dynamics Analysis Tool (SDAT) was used to simulate a thermal-spectrum MSR under steady-state conditions and following transients. The effects of using reduced and expanded representations of DNPs with fewer or more groups than the conventional 6-group model were investigated. Their impact on the simulated distribution of precursors in the primary loop, reactivity loss value, and reactor response to transients was analyzed. Simulation results showed that reduced models lead to the loss of the actual DNPs distribution data, resulting in less accurate estimates of reactivity loss. Reactor power predictions using these reduced models showed significant deviations compared to those using the conventional 6-group model in transient simulations. Expanded models offered a more accurate representation of the distribution of DNPs and reactivity loss estimates. Reactor power predictions using expanded models showed minimal deviation from the conventional 6-group model during the simulated transients.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning for deep elastic strain engineering of semiconductor electronic band structure and effective mass

Abstract The controlled introduction of elastic strains is an appealing strategy for modulating the physical properties of semiconductor materials. With the recent discovery of large elastic deformation in nanoscale specimens as diverse as silicon and diamond, employing this strategy to improve device performance necessitates first-principles computations of the fundamental electronic band structure and target figures-of-merit, through the design of an optimal straining pathway. Such simulations, however, call for approaches that combine deep learning algorithms and physics of deformation with band structure calculations to custom-design electronic and optical properties. Motivated by this challenge, we present here details of a machine learning framework involving convolutional neural networks to represent the topology and curvature of band structures in k -space. These calculations enable us to identify ways in which the physical properties can be altered through “deep” elastic strain engineering up to a large fraction of the ideal strain. Algorithms capable of active learning and informed by the underlying physics were presented here for predicting the bandgap and the band structure. By training a surrogate model with ab initio computational data, our method can identify the most efficient strain energy pathway to realize physical property changes. The power of this method is further demonstrated with results from the prediction of strain states that influence the effective electron mass. We illustrate the applications of the method with specific results for diamonds, although the general deep learning technique presented here is potentially useful for optimizing the physical properties of a wide variety of semiconductor materials.

Tsymbalov, Evgenii↗
DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE 2.4.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications.. Deprecations • Convergence Analysis tool (idaes/core/util/convergence): deprecated in favor of new Parameter Sweep tools. To be removed in v3.0.0. New Beta Capabilities • Parameter Sweep Tool (idaes.core.util.parameter_sweep) o A new API for defining and performing parameter sweep studies on IDAES models has been developed • Diagnostics Tools (idaes.core.util.model_diagnostics) o New methods for identifying duplicate variables and constraints have been added to the diagnostics toolbox o New tools for detecting ill conditioning in Jacobians have been developed and are available in the model_diagnostics module. These provide alternatives to the existing DegeneracyHunter toolbox, and will eventually be merged with this capability, but initial working versions have been provided as beta capabilities for interested users o IpoptConvergenceAnalysis (replaces deprecated Convergence Analysis tool):  A new tool for performing convergence analysis studies that leverages the new Parameter Sweep tools has been developed. This tool allows users to define the input parameters to their model and sampling methods for these (leveraging Pysmo's sampling tools) and to then solve their model across the sampled domains and return a summary of the solver performance (IPOPT only) Improved Models • Thickener model (idaes.models.unit_models.solid_liquid.thickener) o Improved model to include predictive correlations for unit sizing based on settling velocity measurements (steady-state only) • Modular Property Packages o Added general support for calculating critical properties of mixtures using defined Equation of State modules. New API defined for Equation of State modules in order to define the necessary constraints for calculating critical properties (most EoS modules DO NOT support calculation of critical properties (yet)) o Added new methods to Cubic Equation of State module to support calculation of critical properties

DiagnosticsToolbox↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dilated causal convolutional neural networks for forecasting zone airflow to estimate short-term energy consumption

Here this paper investigates the use of dilated causal convolutional neural networks for fine- grained temporal forecasting of building zone states. Specifically, we build and evaluate models using a small set of exogenous features (e.g., external temperature) to autoregressively predict zone airflow setpoints every minute for a 24-hour prediction window. We carefully explore the trade-off between generality and specificity in these models, training and evaluating them based on zone, zone type, month, season, and combinations thereof. When evaluated for a commercial office building in Eastern Washington with 16 zones served by variable air volume air handling units, we find that the highest performance comes from a zone-specific, season-agnostic approach; with it, we obtain an R 2 of 0.704 (averaged over zones) and an average normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of 0.111. In contrast, the most general model (trained across all zones and seasons) yields an R 2 of only 0.416 and a nRMSE of 0.168, while a baseline zone-specific reduced order model obtains 0.443 R 2 and 0.159 nRMSE. We also report on factors affecting airflow forecasting performance, on the ability of models trained on a specific zone to generalize to other zones, and on the capability of those models trained on a specific month to generalize to other months.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deliver Signal Phase and Timing (SPAT) for Energy Optimization of Vehicle Cohort Via Cloud-Computing and LTE Communications

Predictive Signal Phase and Timing (SPAT) message set is one fundamental building block for vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) applications such as Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) at traffic signal controlled urban intersections. Among the two complementary communication methods namely short-range sidelink (PC5) and long-range cellular radio link (Uu), this paper documents the work with long-range link: the complete data chain includes connecting to the traffic signals via existing backhaul communication network, collecting the raw signal phase state data, predicting the signal state changes and delivering the SPAT data via a geofenced service to requests over HTTP protocols. An Application Programming Interface (API) library is developed to support various cellular data transmission reduction and latency improvement techniques. An emulation-based algorithm is applied to predict the traffic signal state changes to provide adequate prediction horizon (e.g., at minimum 2 minutes) for the cohort energy optimization. In fact, the same connectivity and SPAT delivery methodology has been applied to traffic signalized intersections nationwide in the United States upon public agency approvals for access to their firewalled traffic control network and signal control systems or directly to individual controllers. This methodology proves its effectiveness and potential for rapid growth of such SPAT deliveries at mass production scale without needing infrastructure hardware retrofit or excessive communication means. To support the energy optimization of light and heavy-duty vehicle cohorts of mixed automation and propulsion systems (EV, ICE and hybrid), the connection and SPAT deliveries at two sites were completed, including public roads in Washtenaw County, Michigan and closed track test sites at American Center for Mobility (ACM) in Ypsilanti, Michigan. However, only closed test track results at ACM will be presented in this paper. A neuroevolution based optimizer is developed and implemented to control the speed of a vehicle cohort with different propulsion systems and automation levels. Closed track tests showed significant energy savings of the cohort operation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive view of microscopic interactions between DNA-coated colloids

Abstract The self-assembly of DNA-coated colloids into highly-ordered structures offers great promise for advanced optical materials. However, control of disorder, defects, melting, and crystal growth is hindered by the lack of a microscopic understanding of DNA-mediated colloidal interactions. Here we use total internal reflection microscopy to measure in situ the interaction potential between DNA-coated colloids with nanometer resolution and the macroscopic melting behavior. The range and strength of the interaction are measured and linked to key material design parameters, including DNA sequence, polymer length, grafting density, and complementary fraction. We present a first-principles model that screens and combines existing theories into one coherent framework and quantitatively reproduces our experimental data without fitting parameters over a wide range of DNA ligand designs. Our theory identifies a subtle competition between DNA binding and steric repulsion and accurately predicts adhesion and melting at a molecular level. Combining experimental and theoretical results, our work provides a quantitative and predictive approach for guiding material design with DNA-nanotechnology and can be further extended to a diversity of colloidal and biological systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation

A digital twin has intelligent modules that continuously monitor the condition of the individual components and the whole of a system. Digital twins can provide nuclear power plants (NPP) operators an unprecedented level of monitoring, control, supervision, and security by contributing a greater volume of data for more comprehensive data analysis and increased accuracy of insights and predictions for decision making throughout the entire NPP lifecycle. NPP operators and managers have historically relied on limited, second hand or incomplete data. With proper implementation, digital twins can provide a central hub of all intel that allows for a multidisciplinary view of an NPP. This equips operators and managers with the ability to have more information, context, and intel that can be used for greater granularity during planning and decision making. Digital twins can be used in many activities as the technology has many different concepts surrounding it. From the various definitions of a digital twin within the industry, digital twins can be differentiated by levels of integration/automation. The three main models include digital model, digital shadow, and digital twin. Digital twins offer many potential advancements to the nuclear industry that could reduce costs, improve designs, provide safer operation, and improve their overall security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diversion Path Analysis: A Proposed Methodology to Develop an MC&A Approach for Liquid-Fueled Molten Salt Reactors

Nuclear material control and accounting (MC&A) is a critical element of both the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and US Department of Energy (DOE)’s domestic safeguards and security requirements. NRC licensees are required, under Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Part 74 to establish and maintain an MC&A program that captures and records the quantities and locations of special nuclear material (SNM) at the facility. Along with physical protection, MC&A is a key element of domestic nuclear material safeguards that enables the NRC to ensure that SNM is controlled and accounted for. SNM, per 10 CFR Part 74, refers to plutonium, 233 U, and uranium enriched in the isotope 233 U or 235 U, but does not include source material. Periodic physical inventories, coupled with material balance evaluations, are effective and demonstrated tools to account for and detect theft or diversion of SNM in facilities containing SNM in bulk material form (i.e., not in discrete, countable items). Historically in the United States, these types of facilities have included fuel fabrication, conversion, and enrichment facilities. In comparison, reactors have relied on item counting of assemblies and control of SNM while in containment (e.g., a sealed reactor pressure vessel) because, to date, reactor fuel has been in item form. In liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs), unlike traditional light water reactors (LWRs) or bulk facilities, bulk SNM quantities can change significantly during operation as a result of depletion and transmutation. This introduces challenges to the use of traditional periodic physical inventories and material balance evaluations to detect theft or diversion of SNM in reactors that use SNM in bulk material form. Liquid-fueled (i.e., salt-fueled) MSR facilities are MSRs that use SNM within a salt eutectic as the fuel. The SNM is in a bulk material form any time it is outside of fresh or spent fuel storage containers. Some examples of when SNM will be in bulk form in the facility are during addition of fuel to the reactor system, while fuel is circulating in operation, and while fuel is in a drain tank. Periodic physical inventories and material balance evaluations can likely be effectively applied to many portions of an MSR facility, including all areas where depletion and transmutation are not significantly changing the quantities of SNM within the control area. Within an MSR facility, this would include fresh fuel receipt and loading, waste streams that may contain SNM, irradiated fuel storage outside of the reactor core, and any irradiated fuel processing that may happen after SNM has been removed from the reactor. All of these process steps could rely on measurements of SNM quantities compared with documented inventories. Any discrepancies from predicted (i.e., book) inventories and measured inventories could be quantified as inventory differences, consistent with traditional MC&A guidance from the NRC (e.g., in NUREG-1065 Revision 2, NUREG-2159 Revision 1, and RG 5.29 Revision 2). Within the reactor system, additions and removals to the book inventory include depletion of the SNM (e.g., fission of 235 U), which complicates the use of physical inventories. SNM control, however, can also likely be effectively applied to detect theft of SNM throughout a liquid-fueled MSR facility. To complement these approaches, prior technical reports have identified that a diversion path analysis may be a useful, risk-informed, and performance-based tool to determine suitable elements of an MC&A approach for the reactor system within a liquid-fueled MSR facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Employing Eye Trackers to Reduce Nuisance Alarms

When process operators anticipate an alarm prior to its annunciation, that alarm loses information value and becomes a nuisance. This study investigated using eye trackers to measure and adjust the salience of alarms with three methods of gaze-based acknowledgement (GBA) of alarms that estimate operator anticipation. When these methods detected possible alarm anticipation, the alarm’s audio and visual salience was reduced. A total of 24 engineering students (male = 14, female = 10) aged between 18 and 45 were recruited to predict alarms and control a process parameter in three scenario types (parameter near threshold, trending, or fluctuating). The study evaluated whether behaviors of the monitored parameter affected how frequently the three GBA methods were utilized and whether reducing alarm salience improved control task performance. The results did not show significant task improvement with any GBA methods (F(3,69) = 1.357, p = 0.263, partial η 2 = 0.056). However, the scenario type affected which GBA method was more utilized (X 2 (2, N = 432) = 30.147, p < 0.001). Alarm prediction hits with gaze-based acknowledgements coincided more frequently than alarm prediction hits without gaze-based acknowledgements (X 2 (1, N = 432) = 23.802, p < 0.001, OR = 3.877, 95% CI 2.25–6.68, p < 0.05). Participant ratings indicated an overall preference for the three GBA methods over a standard alarm design (F(3,63) = 3.745, p = 0.015, partial η 2 = 0.151). This study provides empirical evidence for the potential of eye tracking in alarm management but highlights the need for additional research to increase validity for inferring alarm anticipation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Controls From Above and Below: Snow, Soil, and Steepness Drive Diverging Trends of Subsurface Water and Streamflow Dynamics

ABSTRACT The importance of subsurface water dynamics, such as water storage and flow partitioning, is well recognised. Yet, our understanding of their drivers and links to streamflow generation has remained elusive, especially in small headwater streams that are often data‐limited but crucial for downstream water quantity and quality. Large‐scale analyses have focused on streamflow characteristics across rivers with varying drainage areas, often overlooking the subsurface water dynamics that shape streamflow behaviour. Here we ask the question: What are the climate and landscape characteristics that regulate subsurface dynamic storage, flow path partitioning, and dynamics of streamflow generation in headwater streams? To answer this question, we used streamflow data and a widely‐used hydrological model (HBV) for 15 headwater catchments across the contiguous United States. Results show that climate characteristics such as aridity and precipitation phase (snow or rain) and land attributes such as topography and soil texture are key drivers of streamflow generation dynamics. In particular, steeper slopes generally promoted more streamflow, regardless of aridity. Streams in flat, rainy sites (< 30% precipitation as snow) with finer soils exhibited flashier regimes than those in snowy sites (> 30% precipitation as snow) or sites with coarse soils and deeper flow paths. In snowy sites, less weathered, thinner soils promoted shallower flow paths such that discharge was more sensitive to changes in storage, but snow dampened streamflow flashiness overall. Results here indicate that land characteristics such as steepness and soil texture modify subsurface water storage and shallow and deep flow partitioning, ultimately regulating streamflow response to climate forcing. As climate change increases uncertainty in water availability, understanding the interacting climate and landscape features that regulate streamflow will be essential to predict hydrological shifts in headwater catchments and improve water resources management.

Kerins, Devon [Department of Civil and Environment↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated View of Hydraulic Induced Fracture Geometry in Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2

Until relatively recently, most of our understanding about the geometry of hydraulically induced fractures in unconventional reservoirs has been inferred by patterns observed via microseismic monitoring. Important information, such as fracture-azimuth, fracture-length, height-growth and other geometric data has been determined from microseismic “event clouds”, which in turn has been used to interpret a stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). It is important to note that relatively limited microseismic results have been acquired in conjunction with other diagnostics and validated in a consistent manner. The Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2 (HFTS2) in the Permian Delaware Basin provides a unique opportunity to compare the frac geometry interpretations derived from multiple frac diagnostic tools and at multiple scales. The integrated view that emerges from all the frac diagnostic tools is that in HFTS2 the geometries of hydraulically induced fractures are not random and with a highly complex branching architecture. In fact, the fracs are mostly vertical, parallel plana domains, and both vertically and horizontally asymmetrical. The hydraulically induced fractures have a very consistent azimuth with a strike that matches SHmax. At the distance corresponding to the spacing between nearby wells in HFTS2, ~ 660 ft, the pattern of strain interceptions observed from Low Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing (LF-DAS) shows far-field dimensions that are consistent with the stage length dimensions at the stimulated well. In general, larger stages with higher number of clusters create larger number of interceptions and wider stimulated intervals than that of shorter stages with the same cluster to cluster spacing and fewer clusters. The hydraulically induced fractures also show a clear tendency to preferentially grow upwards as shown by the microseismic data, by the relative lower number of LF-DAS interceptions in nearby deeper wells and finally by the observed LF-DAS strain patterns in the vertical observation well. In the near field, the geometries of the fracture domains are also consistent. As shown by the distributed strain measurements obtained during production via the monitoring of Rayleigh Frequency Shift (RFS), each cluster has a separate, non-overlapping, frac-zone-domain that are generally centered around the locations of each perforation cluster. Overall, the hydraulically induced fractures in HFTS2 are interpreted as occurring in swarms associated with individual clusters, each with its own unique geometry but with similar predictable geometric and propagation tendencies. The comprehensive frac diagnostic program in HFTS2, the well-pad layout that permits the investigation of the Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/1-21URTC/D011S018R003/2477511/urtec-2021-5396-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5396 2 impact that nearby producing wells has on frac geometry, together with an innovative Design of Experiment (DofE) that includes sequential-fracing, consistent cluster-to-cluster distances and few single-perforation cluster stages, has allowed us to gain a unique perspective about the geometry of the induced hydraulic fractures on this pad. Finally, the HFTS2 dataset has also provided us with a better understanding of the applicability and limitations of the different diagnostic tools.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards fully predictive gyrokinetic full- f simulations: validation and triangularity studies in TCV

Designing economical magnetic confinement fusion power plants motivates computational tools that can estimate plasma behavior from engineering parameters without direct reliance on experimental measurement of the plasma profiles. In this work, we present full-f global long-wavelength gyrokinetic simulations of edge and scrape-off layer turbulence in tokamaks that use only magnetic geometry, heating power, and particle inventory as inputs. Unlike many modeling approaches that employ free parameters fitted to experimental data, raising uncertainties when extrapolating to reactor scales. This approach directly simulates turbulence and resulting profiles through gyrokinetics without such empirical adjustments. This is achieved via an adaptive sourcing algorithm in Gkeyll that strictly controls energy injection and emulates particle sourcing due to neutral recycling. We show that the simulated kinetic profiles compare reasonably well with Thomson scattering and Langmuir probe data for Tokamak á Configuration Variable (TCV) discharge #65125, and that the simulations reproduce characteristic features such as blob transport and self-organized electric fields. Applying the same framework to study triangularity effects suggests mechanisms contributing to the improved confinement reported for negative triangularity (NT). Simulations of TCV discharges #65125 and #65130 indicate that NT increases the E x B flow shear (by about 20% in these cases), which correlates with reduced turbulent losses and a modest change in the distribution of power exhaust to the vessel wall. While the physical models contain approximations that can be refined in future work, the predictive capability demonstrated here, evolving multiple profile relaxation times with kinetic electron and ion models in hundreds of GPU hours, indicates the feasibility of using Gkeyll to support design studies of fusion devices.

Hoffmann, Antoine Cyril David [Princeton Plasma Ph↗
DOE OSTI2021

Partially averaged Navier-Stokes closure modeling for variable-density turbulent flow

We report this work extends the framework of the partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) equations to variable-density flow, i.e., multimaterial and/or compressible mixing problems with density variations and production of turbulence kinetic energy by both shear and buoyancy mechanisms. The proposed methodology is utilized to derive the PANS BHR-LEVM closure. This includes a priori testing to analyze and develop guidelines toward the efficient selection of the parameters controlling the physical resolution and, consequently, the range of resolved scales of PANS. Two archetypal test-cases involving transient turbulence, hydrodynamic instabilities, and coherent structures are used to illustrate the accuracy and potential of the method: the Taylor-Green vortex at Reynolds number Re = 3000, and the Rayleigh-Taylor flow at Atwood number 0.5 and (Re) max ≈ 500. These representative problems, for which turbulence is generated by shear and buoyancy processes, constitute the initial validation space of the new model, and their results are comprehensively discussed in two subsequent studies. The computations indicate that PANS can accurately predict the selected flow problems, resolving only a fraction of the scales of large-eddy simulation and direct numerical simulation strategies. The results also reiterate that the physical resolution of the PANS model must guarantee that the key instabilities and coherent structures of the flow are resolved. The remaining scales can be modeled through an adequate turbulence scale-dependent closure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interplay of coulomb and exciton–phonon coupling controls singlet fission dynamics in two pentacene polymorphs

Pentacene is an important model organic semiconductor in both the singlet exciton fission (SF) and organic electronics communities. We have investigated the effect of changing crystal structure on the SF process, generating multiple triplet excitons from an initial singlet exciton, and subsequent triplet recombination. Unlike for similar organic semiconductors that have strong SF sensitive to polymorphism, we find almost no quantitative difference between the kinetics of triplet pair (TT) formation in the two dominant polymorphs of pentacene. Both pairwise dimer coupling and momentum-space crystal models predict much faster TT formation from the bright singlet excited state of the Bulk vs ThinFilm polymorph, contrasting with the experiment. GW and Bethe–Salpeter equation calculations, including exciton–phonon coupling, reveal that ultrafast phonon-driven transitions in the ThinFilm polymorph compensate the intrinsically slower purely Coulomb-mediated TT formation channel, rationalizing the similarity in observed rates. Taking into account the influence of subtle structural distinctions on both the direct and phonon-mediated SF pathways reveals a predictive capability to these methods, expected to be applicable to a wide variety of molecular crystals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗