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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2008

NASA and Army Collaboration on Unmanned Systems Presentation to the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI)

This viewgraph presentation describes the collaborative effort of NASA and the US Army on unmanned systems. The contents include: 1) Robotic/Autonomous Systems Architecture Development; 2) Synergy In Robotics/Autonomous Systems Development; 3) Surface Mobility Systems: Lunar Pylon Network Project; 4) Lunar Pylon Network Enables Multiple Vehicle Operations & Logistics; 5) Surface Mobility Systems: MARCbot IV-N Project Overview; 6) Autonomous Logistics Support Demonstration; and 7) Lunar Network Demonstration and Collaborative Effort.

Fernandez, Ken↗
NASA NTRS2008

A VARI-Based Relative Greenness from MODIS Data for Computing the Fire Potential Index

The Fire Potential Index (FPI) relies on relative greenness (RG) estimates from remote sensing data. The Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI), derived from NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery is currently used to calculate RG operationally. Here we evaluated an alternate measure of RG using the Visible Atmospheric Resistant Index (VARI) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data. VARI was chosen because it has previously been shown to have the strongest relationship with Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) out of a wide selection of MODIS-derived indices in southern California shrublands. To compare MODIS-based NDVI-FPI and VARI-FPI, RG was calculated from a 6-year time series of MODIS composites and validated against in-situ observations of LFM as a surrogate for vegetation greenness. RG from both indices was then compared in terms of its performance for computing the FPI using historical wildfire data. Computed RG values were regressed against ground-sampled LFM at 14 sites within Los Angeles County. The results indicate the VARI-based RG consistently shows a stronger relationship with observed LFM than NDVI-based RG. With an average R2 of 0.727 compared to a value of only 0.622 for NDVI-RG, VARI-RG showed stronger relationships at 13 out of 14 sites. Based on these results, daily FPI maps were computed for the years 2001 through 2005 using both NDVI-RG and VARI-RG. These were then validated against 12,490 fire detections from the MODIS active fire product using logistic regression. Deviance of the logistic regression model was 408.8 for NDVI-FPI and 176.2 for VARI-FPI. The c-index was found to be 0.69 and 0.78, respectively. The results show that VARI-FP outperforms NDVI-FPI in distinguishing between fire and no-fire events for historical wildfire data in southern California for the given time period.

Schneider, P.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Proposed Array-based Deep Space Network for NASA

The current assets of the Deep Space Network (DSN) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), especially the 70-m antennas, are aging and becoming less reliable. Furthermore, they are expensive to operate and difficult to upgrade for operation at Ka-band (321 GHz). Replacing them with comparable monolithic large antennas would be expensive. On the other hand, implementation of similar high-sensitivity assets can be achieved economically using an array-based architecture, where sensitivity is measured by G/T, the ratio of antenna gain to system temperature. An array-based architecture would also provide flexibility in operations and allow for easy addition of more G/T whenever required. Therefore, an array-based plan of the next-generation DSN for NASA has been proposed. The DSN array would provide more flexible downlink capability compared to the current DSN for robust telemetry, tracking and command services to the space missions of NASA and its international partners in a cost effective way. Instead of using the array as an element of the DSN and relying on the existing concept of operation, we explore a broader departure in establishing a more modern concept of operations to reduce the operations costs. This paper presents the array-based architecture for the next generation DSN. It includes system block diagram, operations philosophy, user's view of operations, operations management, and logistics like maintenance philosophy and anomaly analysis and reporting. To develop the various required technologies and understand the logistics of building the array-based lowcost system, a breadboard array of three antennas has been built. This paper briefly describes the breadboard array system and its performance.

telemetry↗
NASA NTRS2009

The International Space Station and the Space Debris Environment: 10 Years On

For just over a decade the International Space Station (ISS), the most heavily protected vehicle in Earth orbit, has weathered the space debris environment well. Numerous hypervelocity impact features on the surface of ISS caused by small orbital debris and meteoroids have been observed. In addition to typical impacts seen on the large solar arrays, craters have been discovered on windows, hand rails, thermal blankets, radiators, and even a visiting logistics module. None of these impacts have resulted in any degradation of the operation or mission of the ISS. Validating the rate of small particle impacts on the ISS as predicted by space debris environment models is extremely complex. First, the ISS has been an evolving structure, from its original 20 metric tons to nearly 300 metric tons (excluding logistics vehicles) ten years later. Hence, the anticipated space debris impact rate has grown with the increasing size of ISS. Secondly, a comprehensive visual or photographic examination of the complete exterior of ISS has never been accomplished. In fact, most impact features have been discovered serendipitously. Further complications include the estimation of the size of an impacting particle without knowing its mass, velocity, and angle of impact and the effect of shadowing by some ISS components. Inadvertently and deliberately, the ISS has also been the source of space debris. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network officially cataloged 65 debris from ISS from November 1998 to November 2008: from lost cameras, sockets, and tool bags to intentionally discarded equipment and an old space suit. Fortunately, the majority of these objects fall back to Earth quickly with an average orbital lifetime of less than two months and a maximum orbital lifetime of a little more than 15 months. The cumulative total number of debris object-years is almost exactly 10, the equivalent of one piece of debris remaining in orbit for 10 years. An unknown number of debris too small to be tracked and cataloged have also been generated, but normally with even shorter orbital lifetimes. Finally, eight collision avoidance maneuvers have been performed to avoid potential collisions between ISS and large, tracked space debris. The most recent such maneuver was accomplished by ESA's Automated Transfer Vehicle, the Jules Verne, just three months before the 10th anniversary of the launch of ISS's first element.

Johnson, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA Lunar Mining and Construction Activities and Plans

The Space Exploration Policy enacted by the US Congress in 2005 calls for the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond; Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations; Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests. In 2006, NASA released the Lunar Architecture Study, which proposed establishing a lunar Outpost on the Moon with international participation to extend human presence beyond Earth's orbit, pursue scientific activities, use the Moon to prepare for future human missions to Mars, and expand Earth s economic sphere. The establishment of sustained human presence on the Moon for science and exploration combines the design, integration, and operation challenges experienced from both the short Apollo lunar missions and the build-up and sustained crew operations of the International Space Station (ISS). Apollo experience reminds developers and mission planners that hardware must operate under extremely harsh environmental and abrasive conditions and every kilogram of mass and payload must be critical to achieve the mission s objectives due to the difficulty and cost of reaching the lunar surface. Experience from the ISS reminds developers and mission planners that integration of all hardware must be designed and planned from the start of the program, operations and evolution of capabilities on a continuous basis are important, and long-term life-cycle costs and logistical needs are equally or more important than minimizing early development and test costs. Overarching all of this is the need to implement efforts that are sustainable and affordable. One area NASA is developing that can significantly change how systems required for sustained human presence are designed and integrated, as well as potentially break our reliance on Earth supplied logistics, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU, also known living off the land, involves the extraction and processing of local resources into useful products. In particular, the ability to make propellants, life support consumables, fuel cell reagents, and radiation shielding can significantly reduce the cost, mass, and risk of sustained human activities beyond Earth. Also, the ability to modify the lunar landscape for safer landing, transfer of payloads from the lander an outpost, dust generation mitigation, and infrastructure placement and buildup are also extremely important for long-term lunar operations. While extra-terrestrial excavation, material handling and processing, and site preparation and construction may be new to NASA and other space agencies, there is extensive terrestrial hardware and commercial experience that can be leveraged. This paper will provide an overview of current NASA activities in lunar ISRU mining and construction and how terrestrial experience in these areas are important to achieving the goal of affordable and sustainable human exploration.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Programmable Thermostats for MPLM Shell Heater Control ULF1: Thermal Performances - 1

The Multi-Purpose Logistics Module (MPLM) is the primary carrier for "pressurized" logistics to and from the International Space Station (ISS). The MPLM is transported in the payload bay of the Space Shuttle and is docked to the ISS for unloading, and reloading, of contents within the ISS shirt sleeve environment. Foil heaters, controlled originally with bi-metallic thermostats, are distributed across the outside of the MPLM structure and are utilized to provide energy to the structure to avoid exposure to cold temperatures and prevent condensation. The existing bi-metallic, fixed temperature set point thermostats have been replaced with Programmable Thermostats Modules (PTMs) in the Passive Thermal Control Subsystem (PTCS) 28Vdc shell heater circuits. The goal of using the PTM thermostat is to improve operational efficiency of the MPLM on-orbit shell heaters by providing better shell temperature control via feedback control capability. Each heater circuit contains a programmable thermostat connected to an external temperature sensor, a Resistive Temperature Device (RTD), which is used to provide continuous temperature monitoring capability. Each thermostat has programmable temperature set points and control spans. The data acquisition system uses a standard RS-485 serial interface communications cable to provide digital control capability. The PTM system was designed by MSFC, relying upon ALTEC support for their integration within the MPLM system design, while KSC performed the installation and ground checkout testing of the thermostat and RS-485 communication cable on the MPLM FM1 flight module. The PTMs were used for the first time during the STS-121/ULF1.1 mission. This paper will describe the design, development and verification of the PTM system, as well as the PTM flight performance and comparisons with SINDA thermal model predictions.

Glasgow, Shaun↗
NASA NTRS2010

Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Reducing NPR 7120.5D to Practice: Preparing for a Life-Cycle Review

In March 2007, NASA issued revised rules for space flight project management, NPR 7120.5D, 'NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements.' Central to the new rules was the construct of Key Decision Points, maturity gates that the project team must pass in order to continue development. In order that the KDP decision be fully informed, the NPR required, as entrance criteria for the gate, the generation and delivery of specified planning, technical, and cost/schedule documents (gate products) and a life-cycle review, the Preliminary Design Review. Building on JPL experience on the Prometheus and Juno projects, the team successfully organized for and conducted these reviews on an aggressive schedule. Key actions were taken to proactively interact with the SRB, produce high-quality gate products with stakeholder review, generate review presentation materials, and handle a myriad of supporting logistical functions. A review preparation team was established, including a Review Captain and leads for documentation, information systems, and logistics, and their roles, responsibilities and task assignments were identified. Aids were produced, including a detailed review preparation schedule and a comprehensive gate products production table. Institutional support was leveraged early and often. Implementation strategy reflected the needs of a nationally-distributed team, as well as applicable export control and IT security requirements. This paper gives a brief overview of the GRAIL mission and its project management challenges, provides a detailed description of project PMSR and PDR preparation and execution activities, including positive and negative lessons learned, and identifies recommendations for future NASA (and non-NASA) project teams.

NPR 7120.5D↗
NASA NTRS2010

Sabatier Reactor System Integration with Microwave Plasma Methane Pyrolysis Post-Processor for Closed-Loop Hydrogen Recovery

The Carbon Dioxide Reduction Assembly (CRA) designed and developed for the International Space Station (ISS) represents the state-of-the-art in carbon dioxide reduction (CDRe) technology. The CRA produces water and methane by reducing carbon dioxide with hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction. The water is recycled to the Oxygen Generation Assembly (OGA) and the methane is vented overboard resulting in a net loss of hydrogen. The proximity to earth and the relative ease of logistics resupply from earth allow for a semi-closed system on ISS. However, long-term manned space flight beyond low earth orbit (LEO) dictates a more thoroughly closed-loop system involving significantly higher recovery of hydrogen, and subsequent recovery of oxygen, to minimize costs associated with logistics resupply beyond LEO. The open-loop ISS system for CDRe can be made closed-loop for follow-on missions by further processing methane to recover hydrogen. For this purpose, a process technology has been developed that employs a microwave-generated plasma to reduce methane to hydrogen and acetylene resulting in 75% theoretical recovery of hydrogen. In 2009, a 1-man equivalent Plasma Pyrolysis Assembly (PPA) was delivered to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for technical evaluation. The PPA has been integrated with a Sabatier Development Unit (SDU). The integrated process configuration incorporates a sorbent bed to eliminate residual carbon dioxide and water vapor in the Sabatier methane product stream before it enters the PPA. This paper provides detailed information on the stand-alone and integrated performance of both the PPA and SDU. Additionally, the integrated test stand design and anticipated future work are discussed.

Abney, Morgan B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Carbon Dioxide Control System for a Mars Space Suit Life Support System

Carbon dioxide (CO2) control during Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on Mars will be challenging. Lithium hydroxide (LiOH) canisters have impractical logistics penalties, and regenerable metal oxide (MetOx) canisters weigh too much. Cycling bed systems and permeable membranes that are regenerable in space vacuum cannot vent on Mars due to the high partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere. Although sweep gas regeneration is under investigation, the feasibility, logistics penalties, and failure modes associated with this technique have not been fully determined. TDA Research, Inc. is developing a durable, high-capacity regenerable adsorbent that can remove CO2 from the space suit ventilation loop. The system design allows sorbent regeneration at or above 6 torr, eliminating the potential for Martian atmosphere to leak into the regeneration bed and into the ventilation loop. Regeneration during EVA eliminates the consumable requirement related to the use of LiOH canisters and the mission duration limitations imposed by MetOx system. The concept minimizes the amount of consumable to be brought from Earth and makes the mission more affordable, while providing great operational flexibility during EVA. The feasibility of the concept has been demonstrated in a series of bench-scale experiments and a preliminary system analysis. Results indicate that sorbent regeneration can be accomplished by applying a 14 C temperature swing, while regenerating at 13 torr (well above the Martian atmospheric pressure), withstanding over 1,000 adsorption/regeneration cycles. This paper presents the latest results from these sorbent and system development efforts.

Alptekin, Gokhan↗
NASA NTRS2010

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗
NASA NTRS2011

Carbon Dioxide Control System for a Mars Space Suit Life Support System

Carbon dioxide (CO2) control during Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) on Mars will be challenging. Lithium hydroxide (LiOH) canisters have impractical logistics penalties, and regenerable metal oxide (MetOx) canisters weigh too much. Cycling bed systems and permeable membranes that are regenerable in space vacuum cannot vent on Mars due to the high partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere. Although sweep gas regeneration is under investigation, the feasibility, logistics penalties, and failure modes associated with this technique have not been fully determined. TDA Research, Inc. is developing a durable, high-capacity regenerable adsorbent that can remove CO2 from the space suit ventilation loop. The system design allows sorbent regeneration at or above 6 torr, eliminating the potential for Martian atmosphere to leak into the regeneration bed and into the ventilation loop. Regeneration during EVA minimizes the amount of consumables to be brought from Earth and makes the mission more affordable, while providing great operational flexibility during EVA. The feasibility of the concept has been demonstrated in a series of bench-scale experiments and a preliminary system analysis. This paper presents the latest results from these sorbent and system development efforts.

Alptekin, Gokhan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comparative Assessment and Decision Support System for Strategic Military Airlift Capability

The Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company has been awarded several programs to modernize the aging C-5 military transport fleet. In order to ensure its continuation amidst budget cuts, it was important to engage the decision makers by providing an environment to analyze the benefits of the modernization program. This paper describes an interface that allows the user to change inputs such as the scenario airfields, take-off conditions, and reliability characteristics. The underlying logistics surrogate model was generated using data from a discrete-event simulation. Various visualizations such as intercontinental flight paths illustrated in 3D, have been created to aid the user in analyzing scenarios and performing comparative assessments for various output logistics metrics. The capability to rapidly and dynamically evaluate and compare scenarios was developed enabling real time strategy exploration and trade-offs.

Salmon, John↗
NASA NTRS2011

Hardware Design Improvements to the Major Constituent Analyzer

The Major Constituent Analyzer (MCA) onboard the International Space Station (ISS) is designed to monitor the major constituents of the ISS's internal atmosphere. This mass spectrometer based system is an integral part of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) and is a primary tool for the management of ISS atmosphere composition. As a part of NASA Change Request CR10773A, several alterations to the hardware have been made to accommodate improved MCA logistics. First, the ORU 08 verification gas assembly has been modified to allow the verification gas cylinder to be installed on orbit. The verification gas is an essential MCA consumable that requires periodic replenishment. Designing the cylinder for subassembly transport reduces the size and weight of the maintained item for launch. The redesign of the ORU 08 assembly includes a redesigned housing, cylinder mounting apparatus, and pneumatic connection. The second hardware change is a redesigned wiring harness for the ORU 02 analyzer. The ORU 02 electrical connector interface was damaged in a previous on-orbit installation, and this necessitated the development of a temporary fix while a more permanent solution was developed. The new wiring harness design includes flexible cable as well as indexing fasteners and guide-pins, and provides better accessibility during the on-orbit maintenance operation. This presentation will describe the hardware improvements being implemented for MCA as well as the expected improvement to logistics and maintenance.

Combs, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗
NASA NTRS2007

Supportability Technologies for Future Exploration Missions

Future long-duration human exploration missions will be challenged by resupply limitations and mass and volume constraints. Consequently, it will be essential that the logistics footprint required to support these missions be minimized and that capabilities be provided to make them highly autonomous from a logistics perspective. Strategies to achieve these objectives include broad implementation of commonality and standardization at all hardware levels and across all systems, repair of failed hardware at the lowest possible hardware level, and manufacture of structural and mechanical replacement components as needed. Repair at the lowest hardware levels will require the availability of compact, portable systems for diagnosis of failures in electronic systems and verification of system functionality following repair. Rework systems will be required that enable the removal and replacement of microelectronic components with minimal human intervention to minimize skill requirements and training demand for crews. Materials used in the assembly of electronic systems (e.g. solders, fluxes, conformal coatings) must be compatible with the available repair methods and the spacecraft environment. Manufacturing of replacement parts for structural and mechanical applications will require additive manufacturing systems that can generate near-net-shape parts from the range of engineering alloys employed in the spacecraft structure and in the parts utilized in other surface systems. These additive manufacturing processes will need to be supported by real-time non-destructive evaluation during layer-additive processing for on-the-fly quality control. This will provide capabilities for quality control and may serve as an input for closed-loop process control. Additionally, non-destructive methods should be available for material property determination. These nondestructive evaluation processes should be incorporated with the additive manufacturing process - providing an in-process capability to ensure that material deposited during layer-additive processing meets required material property criteria.

Watson, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2012

Trash to Supply Gas (TtSG) Project Overview

Technologies that reduce logistical needs are a key to long term space missions. Currently, trash and waste generated during a mission is carried during the entire roundtrip mission or stored inside a logistic module which is de-orbited into Earth's atmosphere for destruction. The goal of the Trash to Supply Gas (TtSG) project is to develop space technology alternatives for converting trash and other waste materials from human spaceflight into high-value products that might include propellants or power system fuels in addition to life support oxygen and water. In addition to producing a useful product from waste, TtSG will decrease the volume needed to store waste on long term space missions. This paper presents an overview of the TtSG technologies and future plans for the project.

Hintze, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2006

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

This paper evaluates the use of precipitable water (PW) from Global Positioning System (GPS) in lightning prediction. Additional independent verification of an earlier model is performed. This earlier model used binary logistic regression with the following four predictor variables optimally selected from a candidate list of 23 candidate predictors: the current precipitable water value for a given time of the day, the change in GPS-PW over the past 9 hours, the KIndex, and the electric field mill value. This earlier model was not optimized for any specific forecast interval, but showed promise for 6 hour and 1.5 hour forecasts. Two new models were developed and verified. These new models were optimized for two operationally significant forecast intervals. The first model was optimized for the 0.5 hour lightning advisories issued by the 45th Weather Squadron. An additional 1.5 hours was allowed for sensor dwell, communication, calculation, analysis, and advisory decision by the forecaster. Therefore the 0.5 hour advisory model became a 2 hour forecast model for lightning within the 45th Weather Squadron advisory areas. The second model was optimized for major ground processing operations supported by the 45th Weather Squadron, which can require lightning forecasts with a lead-time of up to 7.5 hours. Using the same 1.5 lag as in the other new model, this became a 9 hour forecast model for lightning within 37 km (20 NM)) of the 45th Weather Squadron advisory areas. The two new models were built using binary logistic regression from a list of 26 candidate predictor variables: the current GPS-PW value, the change of GPS-PW over 0.5 hour increments from 0.5 to 12 hours, and the K-index. The new 2 hour model found the following for predictors to be statistically significant, listed in decreasing order of contribution to the forecast: the 0.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 7.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the current GPS-PW value, and the KIndex. The new 9 hour forecast model found the following five independent variables to be statistically significant, listed in decreasing order of contribution to the forecast: the current GPSPW value, the 8.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 3.5 hour change in GPS-PW, the 12 hour change in GPS-PW, and the K-Index. In both models, the GPS-PW parameters had better correlation to the lightning forecast than the K-Index, a widely used thunderstorm index. Possible future improvements to this study are discussed.

Kehrer, Kristen C.↗