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At least 451 records · Page 25

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Meta2DB: Curated Shotgun Metagenomic Feature Sets and Metadata for Health State Prediction

Meta2DB is a curated metagenomic and metadata database that provides structurally consistent microbiome taxonomy feature count tables for 13 897 samples across 84 studies, 23 disease states, and 34 geographical locations. All samples were uniformly processed using a streamlined metagenomic classification pipeline that employs a unique and comprehensive reference database indexed to contain all sequences across all kingdoms of life that were present in the NCBI Nucleotide (nt) database retrieved on 4 January 2023. This pipeline leverages high-performance computing (HPC) resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and was used to process 50TB of publicly available raw metagenomic sequence data. Extensive metadata curation was carried out through a combination of manual curation and automated parsing, producing a consistent inter-study metadata table specifically structured to facilitate training of ML models for prediction of human health.

Kok, C [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LL↗

Substrate Utilization and Competitive Interactions Among Soil Bacteria Vary With Life-History Strategies

Microorganisms have evolved various life-history strategies to survive fluctuating resource conditions in soils. However, it remains elusive how the life-history strategies of microorganisms influence their processing of organic carbon, which may affect microbial interactions and carbon cycling in soils. Here, we characterized the genomic traits, exometabolite profiles, and interactions of soil bacteria representing copiotrophic and oligotrophic strategists. Isolates were selected based on differences in ribosomal RNA operon ( rrn ) copy number, as a proxy for life-history strategies, with pairs of “high” and “low” rrn copy number isolates represented within the Micrococcales, Corynebacteriales, and Bacillales. We found that high rrn isolates consumed a greater diversity and amount of substrates than low rrn isolates in a defined growth medium containing common soil metabolites. We estimated overlap in substrate utilization profiles to predict the potential for resource competition and found that high rrn isolates tended to have a greater potential for competitive interactions. The predicted interactions positively correlated with the measured interactions that were dominated by negative interactions as determined through sequential growth experiments. This suggests that resource competition was a major force governing interactions among isolates, while cross-feeding of metabolic secretion likely contributed to the relatively rare positive interactions observed. By connecting bacterial life-history strategies, genomic features, and metabolism, our study advances the understanding of the links between bacterial community composition and the transformation of carbon in soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adapting Reinforcement Learning Treatment Policies Using Limited Data to Personalize Critical Care

We report reinforcement learning (RL) demonstrates promise for developing effective treatment policies in critical care settings. However, existing RL methods often require large and comprehensive patient data sets and do not readily lend themselves to settings in which certain patient subpopulations are severely underrepresented. In this study, we develop a new method, noisy Bayesian policy updates (NBPU), for selecting high-performing reinforcement learning–based treatment policies for underrepresented patient subpopulations using limited observations. Our method uses variational inference to learn a probability distribution over treatment policies based on a reference patient subpopulation for which sufficient data are available. It then exploits limited data from an underrepresented patient subpopulation to update this probability distribution and adapts its recommendations to this subpopulation. We demonstrate our method’s utility on a data set of ICU patients receiving intravenous blood anticoagulant medication. Our results show that NBPU outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both selecting effective treatment policies for patients with nontypical clinical characteristics and predicting the corresponding policies’ performance for these patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cosmogenic 137 Xe Analysis of Alternatives for nEXO

Neutrinoless double-beta decay is a hypothetical nuclear decay in which two matter particles are produced without corresponding antimatter particles. Observation of neutrinoless double-beta decay would shed light on a potential explanation of matter-antimatter observed in the universe and also indicate the Majorana nature of neutrinos, meaning that the neutrino can act as its own antiparticle. The nEXO experiment is a proposed 5-ton liquid xenon time projection chamber detector with a projected 1.35 × 10 28 yr half-life sensitivity to neutrinoless double-beta decay in 136 Xe [J. Phys. G 49, 015104 (2022)]. While nEXO has a baseline location of SNOLAB, there are several other underground facilities in the world capable of hosting the experiment. The primary change at each site will be cosmogenic 137 Xe backgrounds, caused by varied cosmogenic muon activity at each site. This study finds that while there is a negligible increase in nEXO’s half-life sensitivity at 90% C.L. from improving the cosmogenic 137 Xe veto rejection procedure for SNOLAB, much higher daily muon rates at three other sites will have an adversely negative effect on nEXO’s sensitivity and would likely require further modifications to nEXO’s baseline design to reach nEXO’s scientific goals. Monte Carlo simulations of muons inducing 137 Xe backgrounds were conducted at four underground sites, SNOLAB, SURF, LNGS, and WIPP, each with roughly a factor of 10 times higher daily muon activity than the previous site. There were two primary inputs to these simulations. The first was sample data of cosmogenic muon flight through nEXO’s outer detector, a 12.8m tall and 12.3m wide cylindrical water tank lined with photomultiplier tubes to detect Cerenkov radiation, and all of the secondary interactions produced in the detector. The second input was a parametrization of 137 Xe* production tagging when 137 Xe de-excites and release prompt gammas, as well as accidental tagging caused by neutron capture on 63 Cu, 65 Cu, 19 F, and 1 H throughout the detector. Together, the number of backgrounds relative to the previous 2021 Sensitivity Paper [J. Phys. G 49, 015104 (2022)] was found at each of these four sites across three energy windows, from 400, 1400, and 2600 keV all up to 4600 keV, just above the end point of the prompt gamma spectrum for 137 Xe*. Using level curves for the sensitivity as 137 Xe backgrounds scale relative to baseline calculations, the half-life sensitivity at 90% C.L. for each of trial was found. Even with reduced 137 Xe backgrounds, the results for SNOLAB yielded neglible improvements in nEXO’s predicted sensitivity. On the contrary, the increased backgrounds for the three other considered sites yielded sensitivity estimates below nEXO’s previous projections. This study demonstrates that the shielding from cosmogenic muons at SNOLAB makes it highly preferred even amongst other world leading underground laboratories.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Life cycle assessment of novel heat exchanger for dry cooling of power plants based on encapsulated phase change materials

Cooling systems in power plants account for approximately 40% of total freshwater withdrawals in the U.S. Due to dwindling access to freshwater resources worldwide, continued operation of wet cooling systems poses a significant engineering challenge. To reduce water consumption, a novel air-cooled heat exchanger has been developed using encapsulated phase change material (EPCM) for dry cooling of power plants. Compared to traditional finned-tube air-cooled condensers, this novel EPCM heat exchanger improves the heat transfer coefficient and power plant efficiency while reducing the pressure drop and cooling system cost. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) are used to evaluate the environmental and economic performance of EPCM heat exchangers from cradle-to-grave and to compare them to wet cooling and traditional air-cooled condensers. A thermodynamic model is developed to predict the EPCM heat exchanger performance for plant-scale operations. Equipment and construction costs for heat exchangers are estimated based on design parameters obtained from the thermodynamic model. Both process-LCA and economic-input–output LCA are used to simulate and test the sensitivity of EPCM alternatives with commercial wet and dry cooling technologies. We investigate options for EPCM end-of-life management upon retiring the heat exchanger and construct a process-based LCA model to estimate a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions credit for recycling the EPCM. The life cycle GHG emission of the novel dry cooling technology is 1.16 kg CO 2 eq. /MWh compared with the 1.1–4.3 kg CO 2 eq. /MWh reported for commercial dry cooling technologies and consumes 9.5 L/MWh e of water for cradle-to-gate life cycle, which is significantly lower than that of wet cooling systems. The TEA shows many advantages of EPCM cooling technology over the state-of-art dry cooling solutions. Overall, the EPCM heat exchanger provides a better alternative compared to existing dry cooling and wet cooling technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evaluation of AGR-3/4 In-pile Silver Release Predictions Against Post-Irradiation Examination Measurements

Fuel performance modeling codes that accurately predict the transport of radionuclides in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors that utilize tristructural isotopic (TRISO) fuel particles are an important aspect of reactor safety analyses. One objective of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 experiment was to assess the transport of fission products through fuel particles and their subsequent release into the compact matrix and structural graphite materials. This was accomplished by irradiating uranium oxycarbide (UCO) driver fuel particles and designed-to-fail (DTF) particles to serve as known sources of fission products. The fission product of particular interest when it comes to such transport is silver (Ag-110 m), as it has a 250-day half-life and has relatively high mobility in the TRISO coating layers. Furthermore, to assess the current modeling capabilities and diffusion parameters employed in the fuel performance codes PARFUME and BISON, the fractional release of silver release predicted by the two codes were compared against post-irradiation examination measurements from the AGR-3/4 experiment.

AGR-3/4 Experiment↗

Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models

Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Discussion of Strength Reduction Factor Development for Thermal Aging Effect on Nuclear Structural Alloys

In consideration of structural alloy property deterioration during long-term exposure to elevated temperatures, the yield and ultimate tensile strength reduction factors are provided in the Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section III for nuclear reactor component design and operation analysis. Because the Gen IV reactor requirement of 40 ~ 60 years of service life makes it difficult to acquire such long exposure test data for developing the reduction factors, they must be derived from test data with relatively short exposure by predictive methods considered to be reasonably reliable. A novel approach with a physically-based model has recently been proposed for application to development of reduction factors for 9Cr-1Mo-V. In the model, contributors to the tensile strength are first identified and related to definite microstructural features of the alloy, then some physically-based methods are employed to simulate the microstructural evolution, and finally the model is assembled with test-data-calibrated parameters to generate the yield and ultimate tensile strength reduction factors covering elevated temperature exposure for up to 57 years. The approach is undoubtedly a trailblazing development that will, if proven reliable, lead to a paradigm shift in predicting thermal aging behavior of many other alloys. Its debut application to Section III, however, concerns nuclear safety and naturally warrants objective, impartial, and thorough technical scrutiny. In the present paper, the novel and conventional approaches are discussed. Necessary improvements to the novel approach are recommended for its application to nuclear structural component design and analysis, and for its potential expanded use to other alloys.

Ren, Weiju↗

Visibility and annoyance of the phantom array effect varies with age and history of migraine

The phantom array effect (PAE) is a series of repeated images that may be perceived when a person moves their eyes in large saccades across a light source (or a specular reflection of that light source) that is modulating in output over time. Fifty-five people, including a group of 25 who experience migraine, evaluated the visibility and annoyingness of phantom arrays produced by 85 unique temporal light modulation waveforms (including sine, rectangular, complex and DC waveforms) generated using an LED placed against a black background. Those with migraine exhibited higher average visibility compared to those without migraine ( p = 0.019) and were relatively more sensitive at higher frequencies ( p < 0.001). Younger participants also found more stimuli to be visible ( p < 0.001). The threshold sensitivity function was similar to that developed for the phantom array visibility measure (PAVM), and PAVM was effective in predicting visibility ( R 2 = 0.87 for the relevant region of PAVM < 3). While those in the migraine group did not report seeing the PAE more often in everyday life at a statistically significant level, they reported being more annoyed by it and having more unwanted physiological responses (headaches, eye fatigue and distraction/disorientation). Members of the migraine group were also more likely to have changed their behaviour in architectural spaces (such as leaving a restaurant with ‘flickering’ lights). In the four hours after completing the experiment, 64% of the migraine group (vs. 19% of the non-migraine group) reported experiencing discomfort or an adverse reaction. In particular, 41% reported experiencing a headache (vs. 8% for those in the non-migraine group).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

FAST-1.2.2: Integral Assessment

This integral assessment quantifies the predictive capabilities of Fuel Analysis under Steady-state and Transients (FAST), a thermal-mechanical nuclear fuel performance code designed to analyze fuel behavior from beginning of life to burnup levels allowed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. FAST code calculations are shown to compare satisfactorily to a pre-selected set of experimental data with both steady-state and anticipated operating occurrence conditions and design basis accident transient operating conditions. This document describes the assessment of FAST-1.2.2, the latest version of FAST, released April 2026.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Harvesting Reactor Pressure Vessel Beltline Material from the Decommissioned Zion Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1

The decommissioning of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) provided a unique opportunity to harvest and study service-aged reactor pressure vessel (RPV) beltline materials. This work, conducted through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, aims to improve the understanding of radiation-induced embrittlement to support extended nuclear plant operations. Material segments containing the Linde 80 flux, wire heat 72105 (WF-70) beltline weld and the A533B Heat B7835-1 base metal, obtained from the intermediate shell region with a peak fluence of 0.7 × 10 19 n/cm 2 (E > 1.0 MeV), were extracted, cut into blocks, and machined into test specimens for mechanical and microstructural characterization. The segmentation process involved oxy-propane torch-cutting, followed by precision machining using wire saws and electrical discharge machining (EDM). A chemical composition analysis confirmed the expected variations in alloying elements, with copper levels being notably higher in the weld metal. The harvested specimens enable a detailed evaluation of through-wall embrittlement gradients, a comparison with the existing surveillance data, and the validation of predictive embrittlement models. This study provides critical data for assessing long-term reactor vessel integrity, informing aging-management strategies, and supporting regulatory decisions to extend the life of nuclear plants. This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled, “Current Status of the Characterization of RPV Materials Harvested from the Decommissioned Zion Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant”, PVP2017-65090, which was accepted and presented at the ASME 2017 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference, Waikoloa, HI, USA, 16–20 July 2017.

harvesting beltline material↗

Exploratory analysis and performance prediction of big data transfer in High-performance Networks

Big data transfer in large-scale scientific and business applications is increasingly carried out over connections with guaranteed bandwidth provisioned in High-performance Networks (HPNs) via advance bandwidth reservation. Provisioning agents need to carefully schedule data transfer requests, compute network paths, and allocate appropriate bandwidths. Such reserved bandwidths, if not fully utilized, could be simply wasted due to the exclusive access during the approved time window, and cause extra overhead and complexity for resource management. This calls for accurate performance prediction to reserve bandwidths that match actual needs and avoid over-provisioning. We employ machine learning algorithms to predict big data transfer performance based on extensive performance measurements collected in the past several years from data transfer tests using different protocols and toolkits between various end sites on several real-life physical or emulated testbeds. We first analyze the performance patterns in response to a comprehensive list of parameters in end-host systems, network connections, and data transfer applications, which motivate the use of machine learning and also help us identify the effects of latent factors. We then propose threshold- and clustering-based methods to eliminate negative effects of latent factors in data preprocessing and build a robust performance predictor based on customized domain-oriented loss functions. The performance of the proposed methods is verified by extensive experiments using SVR and RFR as well as theoretical analysis of the general performance bound.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Circularity in polymers: addressing performance and sustainability challenges using dynamic covalent chemistries

The circularity of current and future polymeric materials is a major focus of fundamental and applied research, as undesirable end-of-life outcomes and waste accumulation are global problems that impact our society. The recycling or repurposing of thermoplastics and thermosets is an attractive solution to these issues, yet both options are encumbered by poor property retention upon reuse, along with heterogeneities in common waste streams that limit property optimization. Dynamic covalent chemistry, when applied to polymeric materials, enables the targeted design of reversible bonds that can be tailored to specific reprocessing conditions to help address conventional recycling challenges. In this review, we highlight the key features of several dynamic covalent chemistries that can promote closed-loop recyclability and we discuss recent synthetic progress towards incorporating these chemistries into new polymers and existing commodity plastics. Next, we outline how dynamic covalent bonds and polymer network structure influence thermomechanical properties related to application and recyclability, with a focus on predictive physical models that describe network rearrangement. Finally, we examine the potential economic and environmental impacts of dynamic covalent polymeric materials in closed-loop processing using elements derived from techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment, including minimum selling prices and greenhouse gas emissions. Throughout each section, we discuss interdisciplinary obstacles that hinder the widespread adoption of dynamic polymers and present opportunities and new directions toward the realization of circularity in polymeric materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling Predictive Maintenance for NuScale’s Condensate and Feedwater System Using EMRALD

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is used to model of NuScale’s feedwater and condenser system to capture component degradation and repairing process. To model the reliability of the components, a three-stage failure rate is used contrary to a constant rate leading to component failure. Results from EMRALD will be used to compare different maintenance strategies to reduce system downtime. The outcome of the project will assist in maximizing remaining useful life of the overall system and increasing the availability and revenue of the plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Engineering Innovations, Challenges, and Opportunities for Lignocellulosic Biorefineries: Leveraging Biobased Polymer Production

Alternative polymer feedstocks are highly desirable to address environmental, social, and security concerns associated with petrochemical-based materials. Lignocellulosic biomass (LCB) has emerged as one critical feedstock in this regard because it is an abundant and ubiquitous renewable resource. LCB can be deconstructed to generate valuable fuels, chemicals, and small molecules/oligomers that are amenable to modification and polymerization. However, the diversity of LCB complicates the evaluation of biorefinery concepts in areas including process scale-up, production outputs, plant economics, and life-cycle management. We discuss aspects of current LCB biorefinery research with a focus on the major process stages, including feedstock selection, fractionation/deconstruction, and characterization, along with product purification, functionalization, and polymerization to manufacture valuable macromolecular materials. We highlight opportunities to valorize underutilized and complex feedstocks, leverage advanced characterization techniques to predict and manage biorefinery outputs, and increase the fraction of biomass converted into valuable products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The evidence of N = 16 shell closure and β -delayed neutron emission from 25 F

We measured the β -delayed neutron emission from 25 F for the first time at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). Using combined neutron and γ -ray detector systems of the FRIB Decay Station Initiator (FDSi), we observed β -decay transitions populating neutron unbound states between 4.2 and 8 MeV in 25 Ne. The experimental results led to the revision of the β -decay half-life and β -delayed neutron-emission probability of 25 F. The β -decay strength distribution of 25 F extracted from the data agrees with the shell-model predictions using the USDB and SDPF-M effective interactions. This result indicates that the spherical neutron shell gap persists in 25 F and 25 Ne.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗