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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of likelihood misspecification in Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

In recent years, several groups have designed Autonomous Experiment (AE) models with the aim of using them as an alternative method for neutron scattering scanning. In an AE, Gaussian processes (GPs) are most frequently used due to their interpretability, their non-parametric nature, their universal approximation, and their closed-form predictive distribution. GPs have two key components, namely, the model for the likelihood of a neutron count knowing the underlying dynamic structure factor and the acquisition function. In this paper, we investigate the impact, on the quality of an AE, of the likelihood and acquisition function choices, in energy scans and (Q, ω) ones, with respect to the signal-over-noise ratio. While we hypothesized that the quality of GP predictions would decrease when the normal to Poisson likelihood approximation breaks down at low count rates, we found that the use of the correct Poisson likelihood does not improve the quality of the data collected, as well as yields very poor results in (Q, ω) scans at low count rates. In fact, the best results are obtained with a combination of normal likelihood, including the observation noise, and the change in variance acquisition function. In addition, we find that the performance, or quality of the predictive distribution, is a misleading measure of efficiency, that is, of the quality of the data collected.

Perryman, David Elliott [Inst. Laue-Langevin (ILL)↗
DOE OSTI2013

STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fault-tolerant resource comparison of qudit and qubit encodings for diagonal quadratic operators

Finite local Hilbert-space truncations arise naturally in quantum simulations of lattice field theories and motivate qudit encodings, but their fault-tolerant advantage over qubit encodings remains unclear. We compare the non-Clifford cost of implementing quadratic diagonal evolutions, exemplified by 𝑈 = 𝑒$^{−𝑖⁢𝑡⁢𝜙^2_𝑥}$ in a uniform field-amplitude discretization of a real scalar field, using either one logical 𝑑-level qudit or 𝑛 𝑏 = ⌈log 2⁡ 𝑑⌉ logical qubits. We analyze two standard settings: product-formula simulation and linear combination of unitaries (LCU) per block encoding, taking the resource metric to be the number of non-Clifford gates after synthesis into a discrete logical gate set. Because tight synthesis bounds for general single-qudit rotations are not known, we express the qudit constructions in terms of embedded two-level SU⁡(2) rotations and derive explicit finite-𝑑 break-even conditions for their synthesis cost; these serve as compiler targets for when qudit encodings can outperform the qubit baseline. Within the constructive models studied here, product-formula implementations would require an exponentially stronger per-primitive synthesis advantage for qudits to win asymptotically, while in the LCU setting the qubit encoding is asymptotically cheaper in 𝑑. Nevertheless, the finite-𝑑 threshold analysis identifies low-dimensional regions in which qudits can yield meaningful constant-factor savings, particularly for LCU-based implementations. As a secondary analysis of the LCU construction, we use an idealized negligible-overhead qubit-qudit code-switching model to give an absolute 𝑇-count comparison and reinterpret the savings as an allowable per-switch overhead budget.

Godwood, Samuel [Univ. of Liverpool (United Kingdo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strength distributions of laminated FeNi-based metal amorphous nanocomposite ribbons

Metal Amorphous Nanocomposite (MANC) materials offer low losses at high magnetic switching frequency, enabling high power density motors with increased rotational speed. While MANCs have high strength, they are brittle. The use of motor components such as a rotor consisting of brittle material presents a reliability concern. Here, a promising MANC alloy is subjected to tensile tests and failure is observed with high-speed photography. A method is developed to prepare tensile specimens of laminated MANC and epoxy layers, simulating the stacking of an epoxy-impregnated tape-wound core. Tensile tests are conducted for single layer ribbon and for five- and ten-layer stacks of laminated material with thin layers of thermosetting epoxy. Failure distributions are shown to have increasing Weibull modulus with increasing layer count. The composite MANC material system is modeled using chain-of-bundles models. Using a k-failure model, we show that single ribbon strength distribution data can be used to predict well the failure distribution of laminated stacks. The agreement occurs when the assumed ineffective length, over which load is recovered in a failed layer, is comparable to the observed interlaminar separation length.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Initial Data Collection Coverage (March - June 2020)

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery, but only at the state level. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a count level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. To keep up, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. The DOE COVID-19 data collection effort resulted in over 11 million data points being collected, covering over 13,000 unique geographies and over 2,000 unique attributes that spanned predominantly from early March through the end of June 2020.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Representation of Hydropower in Production Cost Models

One of the challenges of a high-renewable, low-carbon system is that grid operators will no longer be able to count on fossil-fired generation should wind miss its forecast or modeling errors create shortage issues, and this change has operational and reliability implications that affect variable renewable energy integration. Hydropower can help in that it can provide many of the services that have been traditionally provided by fossil generation. However, getting the most from hydropower can be challenging in that its capabilities vary with time and are affected by other water users' needs, two complexities that are not well represented in most of today's production cost models (PCMs). This work is an early step in addressing these gaps and making the most of hydropower's capabilities.

cost model↗
NASA NTRS1982

An inventory of undiscovered Canadian mineral resources

Unit regional value (URV) and unit regional weight are area standardized measures of the expected value and quantity, respectively, of the mineral resources of a region. Estimation and manipulation of the URV statistic is the basis of an approach to mineral resource evaluation. Estimates of the kind and value of exploitable mineral resources yet to be discovered in the provinces of Canada are used as an illustration of the procedure. The URV statistic is set within a previously developed model wherein geology, as measured by point counting geologic maps, is related to the historical record of mineral resource production of well-developed regions of the world, such as the 50 states of the U.S.A.; these may be considered the training set. The Canadian provinces are related to this training set using geological information obtained in the same way from geologic maps of the provinces. The desired predictions of yet to be discovered mineral resources in the Canadian provinces arise as a consequence. The implicit assumption is that regions of similar geology, if equally well developed, will produce similar weights and values of mineral resources.

Labovitz, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Development of a nuclear technique for monitoring water levels in pressurized vehicles

A new technique for monitoring water levels in pressurized stainless steel cylinders was developed. It is based on differences in attenuation coefficients of water and air for Cs137 (662 keV) gamma rays. Experimentally observed gamma ray counting rates with and without water in model reservoir cylinder were compared with corresponding calculated values for two different gamma ray detection theshold energies. Calculated values include the effects of multiple scattering and attendant gamma ray energy reductions. The agreement between the measured and calculated values is reasonably good. Computer programs for calculating angular and spectral distributions of scattered radition in various media are included.

Singh, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A model of the 8-25 micron point source infrared sky

A model is developed that permits the representation of the Galactic disk and bulge, the molecular ring, extragalactic sky, and other Galactic structures in terms of the IR point-source sky. Full characterization is achieved for up to 87 types of Galactic sources in terms of scale heights and absolute magnitudes, and the model is guided by a parallel Monte Carlo simulation of the Galaxy at 12 microns. The model predicts differential and cumulative IR source counts for all bandpasses in the IRAS ranges and can therefore be employed to predict the character of the point-source sky related to IR space observations.

Wainscoat, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Imaging the sun in hard X-rays - Spatial and rotating modulation collimators

Several approaches to imaging hard X-rays emitted from solar flares have been proposed or are planned for the nineties including the spatial modulation collimator (SMC) and the rotating modulation collimator (RMC). A survey of current solar flare theoretical literature indicates the desirability of spatial resolutions down to 1 arcsecond, field of views greater than the full solar disk (i.e., 32 arcminutes), and temporal resolutions down to 1 second. Although the sun typically provides relatively high flux levels, the requirement for 1 second temporal resolution raises the question as to the viability of Fourier telescopes subject to the aforementioned constraints. A basic photon counting, Monte Carlo 'end-to-end' model telescope was employed using the Astronomical Image Processing System (AIPS) for image reconstruction. The resulting solar flare hard X-ray images compared against typical observations indicated that both telescopes show promise for the future.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evolution of the Blue and Far-Infrared Galaxy Luminosity Functions

The space density of blue-selected galaxies at moderate redshifts is determined here directly by deriving the luminosity function. Evidence is found for density evolution for moderate luminosity galaxies at a rate of (1+z) exp delta, with a best fit of delta + 4 +/- 2, between the current epoch and Z greater than about 0.1. At M(b) less than -22 evidence is found for about 0.5-1.5 mag of luminosity evolution in addition to the density evolution, corresponding to an evolutionary rate of about (1+z) exp gamma, with gamma = 0.5-2.5, but a redshift of about 0.4. Assuming a steeper faint end slope of alpha = -1.3 similar to that observed in the Virgo cluster, could explain the data with a luminosity evolution rate of gamma = 1-2, without need for any density evolution. Acceptable fits are found by comparing composite density and luminosity evolution models to faint IRAS 60 micron source counts, implying that the blue and far-IR evolutionary rates may be similar.

Lonsdale, Carol J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Intergalactic Photon Spectra from the Far-IR to the UV Lyman Limit for 0 < z < 6 and the Optical Depth of the Universe to High-Energy Gamma Rays

We calculate the intergalactic photon density as a function of both energy and redshift for 0<z<6 for photon energies from.003 eV to the Lyman limit cutoff at 13.6 eV in a (Omega)CDM universe with (Omega)(Lambda)=0.7 and (Omega)m=0.3. The basic features of our backward-evolution model for galaxies were developed in earlier papers by Malkan & Stecker. With a few improvements, we find that this evolutionary model gives predictions of new deep number counts from Spitzer, as well as a calculation of the spectral energy distribution of the diffuse infrared background, which are in good agreement with the data. We then use our calculated intergalactic photon densities to extend previous work on the absorption of high-energy Gamma-rays in intergalactic space owing to interactions with low-energy photons and the 2.7 K cosmic microwave background radiation. We calculate the optical depth of the universe, Tau , for Gamma-rays having energies from 4 GeV to 100 TeV emitted by sources at redshifts from 0 to 5. We also give an analytic fit with numerical coefficients for approximating (E(Gamma), z). As an example of the application of our results, we calculate the absorbed spectrum of the blazar PKS 2155-304 at z=0.117 and compare it with the spectrum observed by the HESS air Cerenkov Gamma-ray telescope array.

Stecker, F. W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. VI. Bayesian Block Representations

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks [Scargle 1998]-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piece- wise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by [Arias-Castro, Donoho and Huo 2003]. In the spirit of Reproducible Research [Donoho et al. (2008)] all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as auxiliary material.

signal detection↗
NASA NTRS2015

Anomaly Detection in Power Quality at Data Centers

The goal during my internship at the National Center for Critical Information Processing and Storage (NCCIPS) is to implement an anomaly detection method through the StruxureWare SCADA Power Monitoring system. The benefit of the anomaly detection mechanism is to provide the capability to detect and anticipate equipment degradation by monitoring power quality prior to equipment failure. First, a study is conducted that examines the existing techniques of power quality management. Based on these findings, and the capabilities of the existing SCADA resources, recommendations are presented for implementing effective anomaly detection. Since voltage, current, and total harmonic distortion demonstrate Gaussian distributions, effective set-points are computed using this model, while maintaining a low false positive count.

Grichine, Art↗
NASA NTRS1993

Threshold effects on V/V(max) for gamma-ray bursts

The interpretation of the observed gamma-ray burst V/V(max) statistic in terms of spatial distributions is model-dependent. Detection of gamma-ray bursts requires the counting rate in one or more detectors to exceed a threshold C(lim) determined from a time-dependent background rate B(t). The sampling depth of the burst detector is thus time-dependent, and, if burst sources are nonuniform in space, the observed V/V(max) distribution will be affected by B(t). We demonstrate this effect with a simple geometric distribution of standard candles and argue that V/V(max) statistic without information on threshold variations is insufficient for rigorous data analysis. Peak count rates and threshold values must be given separately for all events in order to facilitate a meaningful comparison of observations with theoretical distribution models.

Hartmann, D. H.↗
DOE OSTI2017

On state-of-charge determination for lithium-ion batteries

Accurate estimation of state-of-charge (SOC) of a battery through its life remains challenging in battery research. Although improved precisions continue to be reported at times, almost all are based on regression methods empirically, while accuracy is often not properly addressed. Here, a comprehensive review is set to address such issues, from fundamental principles that are supposed to define SOC to methodologies to estimate SOC for practical use. It covers topics from calibration, regression (including modeling methods) to validation in terms of precision and accuracy. At the end, we intend to answer the following questions: 1) can SOC estimation be self-adaptive without bias? 2) Why Ah-counting is a necessity in almost all battery-model-assisted regression methods? 3) How to establish a consistent framework of coupling in multi-physics battery models? 4) To assess the accuracy in the SOC estimation, statistical methods should be employed to analyze factors that contribute to the uncertainty. Finally, we hope, through this proper discussion of the principles, accurate SOC estimation can be widely achieved.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamical Constraints on the Dark Matter Distribution of the Sculptor Dwarf Spheroidal from Stellar Proper Motions

In this work, we compare the transverse velocity dispersions recently measured within the Sculptor dwarf spheroidal galaxy to the predictions of our previously published dynamical model. This was designed to fit the observed number count and velocity dispersion profiles of both metal-rich and metal-poor stars, both in cored and in cusped potentials. At the projected radius where the proper motions (PMs) were measured, this model (with no change in parameters) predicts transverse dispersions in the range of 6–9.5 km s -1 , with the tangential dispersion about 1 km s -1 larger than the (projected) radial dispersion. Both dispersions are predicted to be about 1 km s -1 larger for metal-poor than for metal-rich stars. At this projected radius, cored and cusped potentials predict almost identical transverse dispersions. The measured tangential dispersion (8.5 ± 3.2 km s -1 ) agrees remarkably well with these predictions, while the measured radial dispersion (11.5 ± 4.3 km s -1 ) differs only at about the 1σ level. Thus, the PM data are in excellent agreement with previous data, but do not help to distinguish between cored and cusped potentials. Lastly, this will require velocity dispersion data (either from PMs or from radial velocities) with uncertainties well below 1 km s -1 over a range of projected radii.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

PhotonIDs: ML-Powered Photon Identification System for Dark Count Elimination

Reliable single photon detection is the foundation for practical quantum communication and networking. However, today's superconducting nanowire single photon detector(SNSPD) inherently fails to distinguish between genuine photon events and dark counts, leading to degraded fidelity in long-distance quantum communication. In this work, we introduce PhotonIDs, a machine learning-powered photon identification system that is the first end-to-end solution for real-time discrimination between photons and dark count based on full SNSPD readout signal waveform analysis. PhotonIDs ~demonstrates: 1) an FPGA-based high-speed data acquisition platform that selectively captures the full waveform of signal only while filtering out the background data in real time; 2) an efficient signal preprocessing pipeline, and a novel pseudo-position metric that is derived from the physical temporal-spatial features of each detected event; 3) a hybrid machine learning model with near 98% accuracy achieved on photon/dark count classification. Additionally, proposed PhotonIDs ~ is evaluated on the dark count elimination performance with two real-world case studies: (1) 20 km quantum link, and (2) Erbium ion-based photon emission system. Our result demonstrates that PhotonIDs ~could improve more than 31.2 times of signal-noise-ratio~(SNR) on dark count elimination. PhotonIDs ~ marks a step forward in noise-resilient quantum communication infrastructure.

Linne, Karl C. [Chicago U.] (ORCID:000900091870358↗