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Multi-Scale Integrated Monitoring System for Enhancing Methane Emission Detection, Quantification & Prediction

This report details the progress and findings of a comprehensive study on reviewing existing solutions, identifying technology gaps, and formulating an “all-in-one” integrated strategy for developing the next-generation multiscale methane monitoring and modeling platform, conducted under grant number DE-FE0032292. Co-led by Dr. David Ebert, Dr. Binbin Weng, and Dr. Chenghao Wang at the University of Oklahoma, the project’s goal was to develop an integrated approach for building this engineering platform to detect, quantify, and mitigate methane emissions across various temporal scale, spatial scales, and sectors. The planning grant study began with an extensive review of various methane sensing and monitoring technologies and systems, surveying over 100 technology providers globally. This review revealed the prevalence of optical methods over chemical methods in commercially available sensors, with Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR), Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), and Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras being the most prevalent options. A trend towards more advanced optical techniques was observed, driven by increased regulatory focus and technological advancements. The technical evaluation of these sensing technologies provided crucial insights into their capabilities and limitations. The study examined emerging technologies such as Differential Absorption LiDAR (DIAL), which show promise for high-precision and long-range detection. The team then investigated the features and application bandwidth of various sensing platforms, including handheld, fixed/stationary, mobile, aerials, and spaceborne monitors. Pilot field studies were conducted to assess the capabilities of solutions for different emission scenarios. Field work with sensor deployments was conducted at three distinct site types: an oil & gas industry site, a cattle ranching operation, and a waste processing facility. The team also conducted a thorough review of methane flux inverse modeling approaches, focused on physically based methods. These approaches were categorized into simple, intermediate, and advanced methods. A realtime WRF-GHG (Weather Research and Forecasting-Greenhouse Gas) modeling system was developed and applied, incorporating multiple data sources to guide field experiments and inform methane plume detection. The project identified and analyzed numerous categories of methane data sources, including satellite measurements, ground-based sensors, and inventory databases. Key platforms examined include EDGAR, EPA GHGI, NASA TROPOMI, Carbon Mapper, and Climate TRACE, among others. The team proposed an architecture for a comprehensive methane monitoring platform. This system incorporates multi-source data acquisition, advanced data processing and assimilation, interactive visualization tools, and analytical capabilities for emissions forecasting and scenario analysis. The proposed platform aims to provide a user-friendly interface catering to various stakeholders, from researchers to policymakers. The architecture includes sophisticated data ingestion methods, a centralized data warehouse, and advanced analytical tools for data fusion and interpretation. To ensure the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed system, a comprehensive survey was conducted to gather stakeholder input on system requirements. Key findings include a strong need for integrating various data types and formats, a preference for real-time data updates and advanced visualization tools, and a demand for user-friendly interfaces catering to different expertise levels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials: Part II Resveratrol Exemplar

This SAND report summarizes work supported by an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled “Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials.” This SAND report is written in two parts with Part 1 discusses recrystallization of our explosive exemplar and Part 2 summarizing our work with recrystallization of resveratrol. We have studied resveratrol recrystallization with a multiscale approach combining experiments, modeling and simulation. At the single crystal scale, microscopy experiments illuminate crystal time-dependent growth rates using advanced image analysis. Bench scale experiments were carried out to look at growth of multiple particles in a small reactor creating thousands of particles and analyzing the results with microscopy and μCT. For the modeling we combine kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) models with subscale information from density functional theory (DFT) or molecular dynamics. This work is discussed in Part 1 and can also be found in a paper from the project discussing a coarse-grained kMC model specifically developed for resveratrol. For well-mixed systems, we have population balance equations (PBE) linked with species mass conservation forming a set of ordinary differential equations that can be solved quickly. For more complicated geometries, such as the vat crystallization used throughout the complex, a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD)/PBE method was developed to account for gradients in temperature and concentration and differences in crystallization rates throughout the domain. These simulations are more complex and require high performance computing. We present results for two cases: 5% seed fast cool with parameters fit to the well-mixed case and 5% seed slow cool using the same parameters. We show reasonable agreement with experiments though are particles are significantly larger than the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Acceleration of Thermochemistry Solves in MOOSE and Pronghorn

This work focuses on the development and implementation of strategies to accelerate thermochemical calculations within MOOSE-based multiphysics simulations, particularly for applications in MSRs. We highlight the inherent complexity of nuclear materials, which require a multiscale approach to accurately model their behavior across various physical domains, including mechanical, chemical, and thermal phenomena. Thermochemical equilibrium calculations are crucial for predicting material properties and enhancing the fidelity of these simulations. The integration of Thermochimica, a Gibbs energy minimizer, into MOOSE allows for the direct minimization of Gibbs energy at every point on the mesh. However, the computational cost of such integration is significant. To address this, we explored acceleration strategies such as multi-threading support and the use of a thermodynamic ValueCache to reduce redundant calculations. Additionally, we investigated modifications to Thermochimica to enable phase constraints and improve its coupling with phase-field models, which are essential for simulating microstructural evolution and corrosion in MSR. These efforts aim to optimize the computational efficiency and accuracy of multiphysics simulations, thereby supporting the development of reliable and efficient nuclear materials for next-generation reactor technologies.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Role of chemical production and depositional losses on formaldehyde in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM)

Abstract. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an important air pollutant with direct cancer risk and ozone-forming potential. HCHO sources are complex because HCHO is both directly emitted and produced from oxidation of most gas-phase reactive organic carbon. We update the secondary production of HCHO in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Production of HCHO from isoprene and monoterpenes is increased, correcting an underestimate in the current version. Simulated June–August surface HCHO during peak photochemical production (11:00–15:00 LT, local time) increased by 0.6 ppb (32 %) over the southeastern USA and by 0.2 ppb (13 %) over the contiguous USA. The increased HCHO compares more favorably with satellite-based observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and from aircraft-based observations. Evaluation against hourly surface observations indicates a missing nighttime sink that can be improved by increased nighttime deposition, which reduces June–August nocturnal (20:00–04:00 LT) surface HCHO by 1.1 ppb (36 %) over the southeastern USA and 0.5 ppb (29 %) over the contiguous USA. The ability of CRACMM to capture peak levels of HCHO at midday is improved, particularly at sites in the northeastern USA, while peak levels at sites in the southeastern USA are improved, although still lower than observed. Using established risk assessment methods, lifetime exposure of the population in the contiguous USA (∼ 320 million) to ambient HCHO levels predicted here may result in 6200 lifetime cancer cases, with 40 % from controllable anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides and reactive organic compounds. Chemistry updates will be available in CRACMM version 2 (CRACMM2) in CMAQv5.5.

Skipper, T. Nash↗

SO2 over Central China: Measurements, Numerical Simulations and the Tropospheric Sulfur Budget

SO2 in central China was measured in situ from an aircraft and remotely using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from the Aura satellite; results were used to develop a numerical tool for evaluating the tropospheric sulfur budget - sources, sinks, transformation and transport. In April 2008, measured ambient SO2 concentrations decreased from approx.7 ppbv near the surface to approx. 1 ppbv at 1800 m altitude (an effective scale height of approx.800 m), but distinct SO2 plumes were observed between 1800 and 4500 m, the aircraft's ceiling. These free tropospheric plumes play a major role in the export of SO2 and in the accuracy of OMI retrievals. The mean SO2 column contents from aircraft measurements (0.73 DU, Dobson Units) and operational OMI SO2 products (0.63+/-0.26 DU) were close. The OMI retrievals were well correlated with in situ measurements (r = 0.84), but showed low bias (slope = 0.54). A new OMI retrieval algorithm was tested and showed improved agreement and bias (r = 0.87, slope = 0.86). The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate sulfur chemistry, exhibiting reasonable agreement (r = 0.62, slope = 1.33) with in situ SO2 columns. The mean CMAQ SO2 loading over central and eastern China was 54 kT, approx.30% more than the estimate from OMI SO2 products, 42 kT. These numerical simulations, constrained by observations, indicate that ",50% (35 to 61 %) of the anthropogenic sulfur emissions were transported downwind, and the overall lifetime of tropospheric SO2 was 38+/-7 h.

He, Hao↗

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

How Well Satellite Remote Sensing Can Inform Surface Level Ozone Production Sensitivity to Precursor Trace Gas Emissions?

Surface-level ozone (O3) pollution mitigation strategies rely on a clear understanding of the atmospheric chemical processes involving O3, NOx (nitric oxide (NO) + nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). A robust spatiotemporal classification of O3 photochemical regimes with relative chemical sensitivity of local O3 formation to emission reductions of NOx (NOx-limited regime) versus VOCs (radical-limited regime) is required to design anthropogenic emission reduction policies in order to improve surface air quality. Numerous studies found that the ratio of satellite-retrieved Vertical Column Densities (VCDs) of formaldehyde (HCHO) to NO2 can diagnose O3 production sensitivity. However, uncertainty still remains about the accuracy of such estimates using satellite-based retrievals. This study conducts an investigation to identify how well satellite data can inform surface-level O3 sensitivity by validating satellite-based estimates against aircraft-based retrievals taken during the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS-2018) and Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS-2) field campaigns. For this study, we use HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard the Aura satellite, and high spatiotemporal resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system is used to provide trace gas vertical profiles to recalculate air mass factor for deriving consistent satellite-based VCDs. To demonstrate the ability of satellites to diagnose O3 production regimes, we validate satellite-derived O3 sensitivity regimes, along with the OMI and TROPOMI products applied, using HCHO and NO2 retrievals from the aircraft-based instruments: Geostationary Trace gas and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) spectrometer and Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events Airborne Simulator (GCAS) instruments deployed during the LISTOS-2018 and OWLETS-2 campaigns. The results of this work will advance our fundamental knowledge of the spatiotemporal evolution of the complex O3-NOx-VOC chemistry, and will advance our understanding about the quality of remote-sensing, suborbital, and satellite data for accurately observing surface-level O3 production sensitivity.

Satellite↗

Toward Improving Short-Term Predictions of Fine Particulate Matter Over the United States Via Assimilation of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Retrievals

This study develops a new approach to improve simulations of the particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5μm (PM2.5) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model via assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth(AOD) retrievals using the Grid point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. In contrast to previous studies that only consider errors due to transport, our computation of the background error covariance matrix incorporates uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions. To understand the impact of this approach, three experiments (one background and two assimilations) are performed over the contiguous United States(CONUS) from 15 July to 14 August 2014. The background CMAQ experiment significantly underestimates both the MODIS AOD and surface PM2.5levels. MODIS AOD assimilation pushes both the CMAQ AOD and surface PM2.5distributions toward the observed distributions, but CMAQ still underestimates the observations. Averaged over CONUS, the two assimilation experiments with and without including the anthropogenic emission uncertainties improve the correlation coefficient between the model and independent observations of PM2.5 by ~67% and ~48%, respectively, and reduces the mean bias by ~38% and~10%, respectively. The assimilation improves the model performance everywhere over CONUS, except the New York and Wisconsin, where CMAQ overestimates the observed PM2.5during nighttime after assimilation likely because of overcorrection of aerosol mass concentrations by the AOD assimilation. Future work should incorporate uncertainties in other processes (biomass burning and biogenic emissions, deposition, chemistry, transport, and boundary conditions) to further enhance the value of assimilating spaceborne AOD retrievals.

Assimilation↗

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗

Highly Resolved Mapping of NO 2 Vertical Column Densities From GeoTASO Measurements Over a Megacity and Industrial Area During the KORUS-AQ Campaign

The Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign is a joint study between the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the South Korea National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) to monitor megacity and transboundary air pollution around the Korean Peninsula using airborne and ground-based measurements. Here, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) slant column density (SCD) measurements were retrieved from Geostationary Trace and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) L1B data during the KORUS-AQ campaign (2 May to 10 June 2016). The retrieved SCDs were converted to tropospheric vertical column densities using the air mass factor (AMF) obtained from a radiative transfer calculation with trace gas profiles and aerosol property inputs simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and surface reflectance data obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the first time, we examine highly resolved (250 m × 250 m resolution) tropospheric NO 2 over the Seoul and Busan metropolitan regions and the industrial region of Anmyeon. We reveal that the maximum NO 2 vertical column densities (VCDs) were 4.94×10 16 and 1.46×10 17 molec. cm −2 at 09:00 and 15:00 LT over Seoul, respectively, 6.86×10 16 and 4.89×10 16 molec. cm −2 in the morning and afternoon over Busan, respectively, and 1.64×10 16 molec. cm −2 over Anmyeon. The VCDs retrieved from the GeoTASO airborne instrument were correlated with those obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (r=0.48), NASA's Pandora Spectrometer System (r=0.91), and NO 2 mixing ratios obtained from in situ measurements (r=0.07 in the morning, r=0.26 in the afternoon over the Seoul, and r>0.56 over Busan). Based on our results, GeoTASO is useful for identifying NO 2 hotspots and their spatial distribution in highly populated cities and industrial areas.

Gyo-Hwang Choo↗

DROP DURABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRONIC ASSEMBLIES UNDER OFF-AXIS LOADING WITH SKEWED FIXTURES

This thesis studies drop durability of electronic assemblies when the acceleration vector is oriented at 45° to the out-of-plane direction of the circuit card. The off-axis drop tests are accomplished with a skewed fixture and are conducted as a proxy for multiaxial drop testing. Advanced shock testing and vibration test methods have been developed over the last few decades to better represent real-world field environments during ground-based laboratory testing. However, many of these test methods require expensive and specialized equipment not available in most laboratories. An alternative approach for approximating simultaneous loading along multiple axes on conventional equipment utilizes skewed fixtures which have seen use in off-axis random vibration and drop impact testing. These methods generally rely on the conversion of a uniaxial input load from the test equipment (using a uniaxial drop tower or shaker) into a multiaxial load when resolved in the reference frame of the test article (mounted on a skewed fixture). Skewed fixture design is presented and recommendations for conducting skewed angle drop testing are introduced based on local measurements along the skewed face of the fixture to accurately monitor the impact event. Characterization tests were performed with a skewed fixture, at simultaneous acceleration loads from 500 to 3,000 g in two (in-plane and out-of-plane) directions, while meeting standard time domain tolerances. Upon experimental characterization, drop shock durability tests were conducted on a printed circuit assembly (PCA). Mean drops-to-failure were measured and quantified with Weibull statistics. Dominant solder joint failure modes were identified via failure analysis. Prior work on inclined angle impact testing is limited, and the majority of solder joint interconnect level fatigue studies are conducted considering perpendicular loading normal the circuit card. Low-cycle fatigue curves are generated based on plastic strain and plastic work density within the solder joint. A multiscale nonlinear finite element model is used to relate board-level flexure to solder joint interconnect level plastic strain. A high strain rate solder constitutive model allows for accurate modeling of solder plasticity resulting from high-impact drop shock. Fatigue parameters are computed from the Coffin-Manson relation and Palmgren-Miner damage accumulation. This work serves to apply established low-cycle fatigue methods for conventional drop shock loading (impact normal to circuit card) to non-perpendicular loading with a skewed fixture.

Hower, Jonathan [Kansas City National Security Cam↗

Approaches for the Simulation of Coupled Processes in Evolving Fractured Porous Media Enabled by Exascale Computing

Models have historically represented fractured porous media with continuum descriptions that characterize the media using bulk parameters. The impact of small-scale features is not captured in these models, although they may be controlling the performance of subsurface applications. Pore-scale models can simulate processes in small-scale features by representing the pore space geometry explicitly but are computationally expensive for large domains. The alternative multiscale approach entails the combination of pore-scale and continuum-scale descriptions in a single framework. We use Chombo-Crunch, a computational capability that discretizes complex geometries with an adaptive, embedded boundary method to contrast these two approaches. Chombo-Crunch takes advantage of recent computational performance and memory bandwidth improvements resulting from the emergence of exascale computing resources. These combined improvements enable the efficient simulation of reactive transport in fractured media with a high degree of fidelity and the ability to capture the control small-scale processes exert on the overall medium evolution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mechanistic nuclear fuel performance modeling of uranium nitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a nuclear fuel candidate for advanced reactor designs and an alternative being considered for light water reactors due to its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density than UO 2 . As with any nuclear fuel, swelling and fission gas release are important factors for safety, while also being some of the hardest phenomena to predict with a high degree of confidence. Getting a grasp on the gas swelling behavior and release is crucial to lower the barrier for UN utilization. An accelerated swelling rate at high temperatures observed experimentally, sometimes referred to as “breakaway swelling,” further complicates the prediction of fuel performance of UN. A mechanistic model has been developed using a multiscale approach to describe the intragranular and intergranular fission gas behavior. Lower-length-scale calculations have been employed to inform models of the gas and self-diffusion behavior, resolution rate, and bubble shape. Leveraging previous work on high burnup UO 2 , two populations of intragranular bubbles are considered; small bulk bubbles and larger bubbles located along dislocations. The dislocation bubbles were found to be crucial to the overall swelling behavior, and the breakaway swelling transition was associated with the transition in the gas atom diffusion mechanism from an irradiation-induced athermal diffusion regime at lower temperatures to an intrinsic thermal equilibrium regime at higher temperatures, accelerating the growth of the dislocation bubbles. Similarly, the threshold for fission gas release was associated with the grain boundary vacancy diffusivity surpassing the gas atom diffusivity at sufficiently high temperatures, allowing the over-pressurized grain boundary bubble to grow in size and interconnect. Using thermo-mechanical models with the fission gas model, two integral fuel pin assessment cases were simulated. Finally, this work demonstrates the ability of a multiscale approach to accelerate the understanding of advanced fuel forms when experimental data is limited.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Substitution-Mediated Calcination of Nickel-Based Cathodes: Decoupling Lithiation and Crystallization

Nickel-based layered cathodes such as LiNiO 2 offer high energy density for lithium-ion batteries, yet improvements in cycling performance and safety are required for practical use–often achieved through manganese and cobalt substitution as in LiNi 0.80 Mn 0.10 Co 0.10 O 2 (NMC811). However, how such substitution impacts calcination, the key process that governs lithiation, structural ordering, crystallization, and ultimately the resulting material properties, remains unclear. Here, in this study, we investigate substitution-mediated calcination dynamics in NMC811 compared to LiNiO 2 using multiscale-correlated in situ spectroscopy and atomistic-to-mesoscale modeling. While both systems progress through the same sequence of intermediates toward the thermodynamically favored layered phase, NMC811 exhibits an earlier onset of layering, concurrent with hydroxide decomposition followed by sluggish crystallization. Modeling reveals that Mn and Co lower the energy barrier for lithium incorporation and ordering but increase the penalty for interlayer gliding, thereby slowing crystal growth at elevated temperatures. This substitution-mediated decoupling of lithiation and crystallization explains the fine-grained microstructure observed in NMC811 versus coarsened particles in LiNiO 2 and establishes a mechanistic framework for predictive microstructure engineering of Ni-based cathodes.

Calcination↗

Multiscale Fiber Kinking: Computational Micromechanics and a Mesoscale Continuum Damage Mechanics Models

In this work, the fiber kinking phenomenon, which is known as the failure mechanism that takes place when a fiber reinforced polymer is loaded under longitudinal compression, is studied. A computational micromechanics model is employed to interrogate the assumptions of a recently developed mesoscale continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model for fiber kinking based on the deformation gradient decomposition (DGD) and the LaRC04 failure criteria.

Herraez, Miguel↗

Validation of a Global Geospace Model With a Systems Science Approach Based on Canonical Correlation Analysis

A systems science approach based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applied as a new, behavioral way to validate global geospace models. The biggest novelty of the technique is that it validates models at a system level, whereby a side‐by‐side comparison is performed of CCA applied to a 30‐day observational and the corresponding simulation data sets comprising quiet, moderate and active times. The simulation used the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model. It is shown that (a) CCA must be combined with sensitivity analysis to be effective, (b) the MAGE model generally reproduces the observed behavior (more so for quieter time intervals), quantified by the intercorrelations between different variables and (c) the technique identifies the SuperMAG SML index as a quantity for which refinements of the model are needed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Prediction of Stiffness and Fatigue Lives of Polymer Matrix Composite Laminates Using Artificial Neural Networks

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in many engineering fields due to the advancements in ML algorithms and availability of high-speed computing power. One of the most popular ML class of models is artificial neural networks (ANN). ML is increasingly being used in the design and analysis of composite materials and structures, specifically in the constitutive modeling of composite materials with the focus on greatly accelerating multiscale analyses of composite materials and structures through development of surrogate models. Towards that end, both Python and MATLAB-based neural nets have been developed to predict initial stiffness and fatigue life of an eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. Two types of neural networks, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), have been developed for both platforms. Results show that the both neural net types can provide an excellent estimate of initial stiffness as well as fatigue life of eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. RNNs are better able to capture the shape of the fatigue curve of a laminate. This tool can be very useful for system level studies to obtain an estimate of desired properties and life of PMC composite laminates. The associated surrogate models could also be used in composite multiscale analyses to replace the actual physics-based calculations at lower scales and thereby significantly increase the computational efficiency of such analyses and thus make multiscale analyses a viable industrial tool for large scale structural problems.

Composite↗