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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

(ODIN): An Open Source, Low-Latency Data Integration & Visualization Framework for the NASA System Wide Safety Project's Disaster Response Safety Demonstration Series

The Open Data Integration Framework (ODIN) is an open source, low latency data integration and visualization framework (https://github.com/NASARace/race-odin) developed under NASA’s System WideSafety Program to demonstrate new safety capabilities designed to improve US airspace operations. Safety demonstrations are a set of increasingly complex (from public safety perspective) disaster response scenarios under which air systems must operate with increased capacity and include: 1) Wildland fire response, 2) Hurricane relief and recovery, 4) Emergency medical delivery via UAS and 4) Urban disaster relief. To accommodate disaster response, ODIN is field deployable and can scale on one or more multi-core, commodity laptops operating with full to limited or intermittent internet connectivity, conditions likely encountered during operations. ODIN runs as webserver with local, persistent data storage to serve either public or a secured, ad hoc network (e.g., an incident command post). The current released ODIN, ODIN-Fire is tailored for wildland fire management incorporating information on satellite overpasses with links to the near real-time data and imagery from the respective agencies. Included are winds data, an important variable for emergency responders and airspace operations, and high-resolution wind forecasts generated by super-computing resources and ingested into ODIN. As an open-source project, ODIN has attracted interest from multiple entities. We will show how 1) a commercial field instrument and data provider uses ODIN to help users visualize, publish and integrate their in-situ sensor network data and 2) ODIN’s capabilities to ingest, integrate and display near-real time satellite data with air traffic and a USFS winds forecast model used in fire response and post-fire assessment. Within NASA ODIN demonstrated novel, near terminal airspace safety capabilities for a project close-out event and previously it monitored the national airspace in real-time to meet an agency milestone. ODIN is presently under development for the anticipated hurricane relief and response demonstration notionally scheduled for the 2025-27 time frame and is available from NASA's github at the above link.

Aeronautics↗
NASA NTRS2022

National Campaign (NC)-1 Strategic Conflict Management Simulation (X4) Community Based Rules

Projected demand for transportation services in the urban environment has led to the development of several Concepts of Operation for Urban Air Mobility, or UAM. UAM is a concept for the transportation of people and goods in the metropolitan environment using small, efficient aircraft over short distances as part of an expanding multimodal transportation network. UAM will leverage emerging technologies including electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft, increasing levels of automation and a new operational paradigm in dense airspace where a set of agreed-upon rules govern the procedures and interactions defining a cooperative environment in which operators are entrusted with a range of functions typically conducted by Air Traffic Control (ATC). These rules, proposed in the FAA NextGen Office’s UAM Concept of Operations [1], were originally termed Community Based Rules or Community Business Rules (CBRs), and will in the future termed Cooperative Operating Practices (COPs); this document uses the original term, CBR. CBRs are a set of rules, developed by the UAM community and (where necessary) approved by the FAA that govern the interactions between UAM entities and limit the need for ATC services including, but not limited to, separation control by ATC, addressing a fundamental challenge to scaling UAM operations. UAM community development of CBRs is anticipated to accelerate the adoption of new practices while retaining the regulatory authority of the FAA within required domains (e.g., NAS safety, security and equal access). However, there currently exists no agreed industry forum or defined procedures for CBR development. Investigation of best practices for the development of UAM CBRs was identified by NASA and the FAA NextGen Office as a research need. In collaboration with seven industry partners, NASA participated in a series of simulations that investigated elements of the envisioned UAM operations, with a primary focus on Strategic Conflict Management (SCM). The development and conduct of cooperative UAM simulations with seven industry partners provided a unique opportunity to investigate CBR development practices. Development of CBRs for the UAM SCM simulations was conducted in parallel with simulation capability development and was closely related to requirements definition for the simulations. As such, the CBR development effort presented herein had two objectives: explore CBR development practices in collaboration with the industry partners and develop an initial set of UAM CBRs to support simulation requirements definition and development. Consensus was achieved among NASA and the industry partners on 24 CBRs that were developed to support the cooperative simulation operations across five topic areas: General (related to test requirements), Operational Intent, Conformance Monitoring, Demand Capacity Balancing, and Airspace Constraint Management. Additional topic areas and CBRs were discussed but were deemed outside the scope of the simulation; these are included in the appendices. A collaborative, iterative process was employed for developing the CBRs engaging both NASA and Industry; because CBR development is envisioned to be community-driven, opportunities were sought that provided industry partners leadership roles in developing CBRs. The following key observations and recommendations may aid the UAM industry in future CBR development efforts: - The lack of a defined process proved challenging initially. Stakeholder engagement in the early stages of CBR development was intermittent and may have been due to the lack of a clear definition of roles and responsibilities of those involved in the effort. - Industry leadership of CBR topic areas proved successful. Discussions in these topic areas were engaging, with alternate viewpoints freely discussed and detailed CBRs resulting. This points to the importance of identifying the best-suited leadership in technical areas for CBR development. - Discussions within a CBR topic area were typically dominated by only a few participants. Whereas all industry partners contributed to CBR development, within each topic area, technical leadership was evident even when not formally established. This observation may indicate that smaller, focused groups may be more effective in initial CBR development than an open forum or large standards development effort (although both maybe required prior to FAA review and approval for some CBRs). - Identifying suitable forums for initial UAM CBR development and identifying the most effective industry participants and leadership will be crucial for successful CBR development. Although the operational need for UAM CBRs may not be immediate, establishing the forums and leadership to define the processes for CBR development is a prudent early step to UAM realization.

Community Based Rules↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A physician’s working group guides COVID-19 prevention in a mission critical environment

Background A team was assembled at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) to help navigate the shifting COVID-19 pandemic. Their goal was to mitigate the impact of COVID on astronauts, other essential personnel, and the human spaceflight program. This team supplemented the JSC Pandemic Incident Response Group, whose function is to set policy for the overall management of JSC’s COVID-19 mitigations for all onsite mission-essential and mission-critical activities, including health policy. Context The first mission to return to Earth from the International Space Station at the start of the pandemic returned when there was limited information about the transmission and prevention of COVID-19. The medical leadership at JSC determined that a dedicated team was required to navigate the uncharted waters of the pandemic. Description of Activities Issues tackled by this panel included: prevention of COVID-19 transmission during altitude, dive, and spacecraft training – activities that require prolonged close contact between multiple individuals who often cannot safely wear face masks; mitigating the risks of domestic and international travel for essential personnel; securing COVID-19 testing from local and foreign hospital systems; acquiring antigen and PCR analyzers for in-house testing; and the development of quarantine policies for crewed spacecraft launches and landings in Kazakhstan and the United States. The panel also provides clinical return-to-work guidance for cases of COVID-19 in essential personnel.

covid↗
NASA NTRS1929

Investigation of damping liquids for aircraft instruments

This report covers the results of an investigation carried on at the Bureau of Standards under a research authorization from, and with the financial assistance of, the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics. The choice of a damping liquid for aircraft instruments is difficult owing to the range of temperature at which aircraft operate. Temperature changes affect the viscosity tremendously. The investigation was undertaken with the object of finding liquids of various viscosities otherwise suitable which had a minimum change in viscosity with temperature. The new data relate largely to solutions. The effect of temperature on the kinematic viscosity of the following liquids and solutions was determined in the temperature interval -18 degrees to +30 degrees C. (1) solutions of animal and vegetable oils in xylene. These were poppy-seed oil, two samples of neat's-foot oils, castor oil, and linseed oil. (2) solutions of mineral oil in xylene. These were Squibb's petrolatum of naphthene base and transformer oil. (3) glycerine solutions in ethyl alcohol and in mixture of 50-50 ethyl alcohol and water. (4) mixtures of normal butyl alcohol with methyl alcohol. (5) individual liquids, kerosene, mineral spirits, xylene, recoil oil. The apparatus consisted of four capillary-tube viscometers, which were immersed in a liquid bath in order to secure temperature control. The method of calibration and the related experimental data are presented.

Keulegan, G H↗
NASA NTRS2020

Integration Test and Evaluation (IT&E) Flight Test Series 6 Live Virtual Constructive - Distributed Environment (LVC-DE) Test Report

The goals of the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) (also UAS-NAS) Project are to reduce the barriers for UAS access and its integration into the NAS. The UAS-NAS project and industry stakeholders conducted a series of flight tests integrating technologies from the Modeling & Simulation (M&S), Human Systems Integration (HSI), and Communication and Control (C2), and Integration, Test & Evaluation (IT&E) research areas. The last of the flight test series, Flight Test Series 6 (FT6) was conducted in late 2019 and focused on evaluating the interaction of the airborne non-cooperative surveillance system and the Detect and Avoid (DAA) technology. The DAA system generated conflict alert and guidance for pilots using a Research Ground Control System (RGCS) to avoid intruder aircraft. The conflict alerting and guidance information was presented on the RGCS’s display using symbology developed by the human factors team. The objective of FT6 was to investigate the interoperability of Low Size, Weight, and Power (Low SWaP) sensors with the DAA alerting, guidance, and display requirements. To support this goal, the distributed test environments (DTE) were developed at Ames Research Center (ARC) and Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) and securely linked over a Virtual Private Network (VPN). These environments took advantage of existing Live Virtual Constructive (LVC) technologies to support research observation at both Centers with the insertion of live UAS and manned intruder aircraft into a simulated NAS environment with Air Traffic Control (ATC) and constructive manned aircraft. The experiment was distributed between AFRC flight operations and research facilities and the Distributed Simulation Research Laboratory (DSRL) and Software Development Laboratory (SDL) in building N243 at ARC. The Air Traffic Controller and pseudo pilots operated from the DSRL and SDL, respectively, using the Multi-Aircraft Control System (MACS). The test subject and researchers operated from the Research Ground Control Station (RGCS) at AFRC using the Vigilant Spirit Control Station (VSCS) and associated DAA software and displays. Flight Operation for the unmanned aircraft (UA) and manned intruder traffic was conducted at AFRC. Virtual traffic was managed by ARC. Voice distribution was accomplished using a combination of disparate communication systems at ARC and AFRC. The purpose of this document is to record the development, design, and execution of activities in support of the FT6 efforts from the perspective of the ARC IT&E team. Furthermore, the Armstrong IT&E team has published a thorough FT6 Test Report, with emphasis on flight test support, facilities and vehicle development; this report complements the Armstrong report. Analysis of collected FT6 data will be conducted and reported by the M&S and HSI teams and will be published in separate reports.

UAS-NAS↗
NASA NTRS2003

An Autonomous Instrument Package for Providing 'Pathfinder' Network Measurements on the Surface of Mars

The investigations of the interior and atmosphere of Mars have been identified as high scientific priorities in most planetary exploration strategy document since the time of Viking. Most recently, the National Academy of Sciences has recommended a long-lived Mars network mission as its second highest scientific priority for Mars (after sample return) for the purpose of performing seismological investigations of the interior and studying the activity and composition of the atmosphere. Despite consistent recommendations by advisory groups, Mars network missions (MESUR, Marsnet, InterMarsnet, NetLander/MSR 05, NetLander/Premier 07, NetLander/?? 09) have undergone a strikingly consistent 'Phoenix' cycle of death and rebirth over the past 15 years, and there are still no confirmed plans to address the interior and atmosphere of Mars. The latest attempt is the NetLander mission. The objective of NetLander is to place a network of four landers on Mars to perform detailed measurements of the seismicity and atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind, humidity, and opacity (as well as provide images, subsurface radar sounding profiles, and electric/magnetic field measurements). However, this mission has recently encountered major programmatic difficulties within CNES and NASA. NASA has already cancelled its participation and the mission itself is facing imminent cancellation if CNES cannot solve programmatic issues associated with launching the mission in 2009. In this presentation we will describe an approach that could move us closer to realizing the goals of a Mars network mission and will secure at least one geophysical and meteorological observatory in 2009.

W B Banerdt↗
NASA NTRS2006

Airport Surface Network Architecture Definition

Currently, airport surface communications are fragmented across multiple types of systems. These communication systems for airport operations at most airports today are based dedicated and separate architectures that cannot support system-wide interoperability and information sharing. The requirements placed upon the Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance (CNS) systems in airports are rapidly growing and integration is urgently needed if the future vision of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) 2025 concept are to be realized. To address this and other problems such as airport surface congestion, the Space Based Technologies Project s Surface ICNS Network Architecture team at NASA Glenn Research Center has assessed airport surface communications requirements, analyzed existing and future surface applications, and defined a set of architecture functions that will help design a scalable, reliable and flexible surface network architecture to meet the current and future needs of airport operations. This paper describes the systems approach or methodology to networking that was employed to assess airport surface communications requirements, analyze applications, and to define the surface network architecture functions as the building blocks or components of the network. The systems approach used for defining these functions is relatively new to networking. It is viewing the surface network, along with its environment (everything that the surface network interacts with or impacts), as a system. Associated with this system are sets of services that are offered by the network to the rest of the system. Therefore, the surface network is considered as part of the larger system (such as the NAS), with interactions and dependencies between the surface network and its users, applications, and devices. The surface network architecture includes components such as addressing/routing, network management, network performance and security.

Nguyen, Thanh C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated under the Open Cloud Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) set of web services was good [1][2]. However, it was discovered that in order to make a system like this functional, there were many performance issues. Data sets were large and located in a variety of location behind firewalls and had to be accessed across open networks, so security was an issue. Furthermore, the network access acted as bottleneck to transfer map products to where they are needed. Finally, during disasters, many users and computer processes act in parallel and thus it was very easy to overload the single string of computers stitched together in a virtual system that was initially developed. To address some of these performance issues, the team partnered with the Open Cloud Consortium (OCC) who supplied a Computation Cloud located at the University of Illinois at Chicago and some manpower to administer this Cloud. The Flood SensorWeb [3] system was interfaced to the Cloud to provide a high performance user interface and product development engine. Figure 1 shows the functional diagram of the Flood SensorWeb. Figure 2 shows some of the functionality of the Computation Cloud that was integrated. A significant portion of the original system was ported to the Cloud and during the past year, technical issues were resolved which included web access to the Cloud, security over the open Internet, beginning experiments on how to handle surge capacity by using the virtual machines in the cloud in parallel, using tiling techniques to render large data sets as layers on map, interfaces to allow user to customize the data processing/product chain and other performance enhancing techniques. The conclusion reached from the effort and this presentation is that defining the interoperability standards in a small fraction of the work. For example, once open web service standards were defined, many users could not make use of the standards due to security restrictions. Furthermore, once an interoperable sysm is functional, then a surge of users can render a system unusable, especially in the disaster domain.

Mandl, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2012

Small Fast Spectrum Reactor Designs Suitable for Direct Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Advancement of U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust space exploration program requires high performance propulsion systems to support a variety of robotic and crewed missions beyond low Earth orbit. Past studies, in particular those in support of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI), have shown nuclear thermal propulsion systems provide superior performance for high mass high propulsive delta-V missions. The recent NASA Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0 Study re-examined mission, payload, and transportation system requirements for a human Mars landing mission in the post-2030 timeframe. Nuclear thermal propulsion was again identified as the preferred in-space transportation system. A common nuclear thermal propulsion stage with three 25,000-lbf thrust engines was used for all primary mission maneuvers. Moderately lower thrust engines may also have important roles. In particular, lower thrust engine designs demonstrating the critical technologies that are directly extensible to other thrust levels are attractive from a ground testing perspective. An extensive nuclear thermal rocket technology development effort was conducted from 1955-1973 under the Rover/NERVA Program. Both graphite and refractory metal alloy fuel types were pursued. Reactors and engines employing graphite based fuels were designed, built and ground tested. A number of fast spectrum reactor and engine designs employing refractory metal alloy fuel types were proposed and designed, but none were built. The Small Nuclear Rocket Engine (SNRE) was the last engine design studied by the Los Alamos National Laboratory during the program. At the time, this engine was a state-of-the-art graphite based fuel design incorporating lessons learned from the very successful technology development program. The SNRE was a nominal 16,000-lbf thrust engine originally intended for unmanned applications with relatively short engine operations and the engine and stage design were constrained to fit within the payload volume of the then planned space shuttle. The SNRE core design utilized hexagonal fuel elements and hexagonal structural support elements. The total number of elements can be varied to achieve engine designs of higher or lower thrust levels. Some variation in the ratio of fuel elements to structural elements is also possible. Options for SNRE-based engine designs in the 25,000-lbf thrust range were described in a recent (2010) Joint Propulsion Conference paper. The reported designs met or exceeded the performance characteristics baselined in the DRA 5.0 Study. Lower thrust SNRE-based designs were also described in a recent (2011) Joint Propulsion Conference paper. Recent activities have included parallel evaluation and design efforts on fast spectrum engines employing refractory metal alloy fuels. These efforts include evaluation of both heritage designs from the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and General Electric Company GE-710 Programs as well as more recent designs. Results are presented for a number of not-yet optimized fast spectrum engine options.

Schnitzler, Bruce G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Landsat 8: The Plans, the Reality, and the Legacy

Landsat 8, originally known as the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM), is a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) partnership that continues the legacy of continuous moderate resolution observations started in 1972. The conception of LDCM to the reality of Landsat 8 followed an arduous path extending over nearly 13 years, but the successful launch on February 11, 2013 ensures the continuity of the unparalleled Landsat record. The USGS took over mission operations on May 30, 2013 and renamed LCDM to Landsat 8. Access to Landsat 8 data was opened to users worldwide. Three years following launch we evaluate the science and applications impact of Landsat 8. With a mission objective to enable the detection and characterization of global land changes at a scale where differentiation between natural and human-induced causes of change is possible, LDCM promised incremental technical improvements in capabilities needed for Landsat scientific and applications investigations. Results show that with Landsat 8, we are acquiring more data than ever before, the radiometric and geometric quality of data are generally technically superior to data acquired by past Landsat missions, and the new measurements, e.g., the coastal aerosol and cirrus bands, are opening new opportunities. Collectively, these improvements are sparking the growth of science and applications opportunities. Equally important, with Landsat 7 still operational, we have returned to global imaging on an 8-day cycle, a capability that ended when Landsat 5 ceased operational Earth imaging in November 2011. As a result, the Landsat program is on secure footings and planning is underway to extend the record for another 20 or more years.

Loveland, Thomas R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Update - Body of Knowledge (BOK) for Copper Wire Bonds

Copper wire bond technology developments continue to be a subject of technical interest to the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) NEPP (NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging Program) which funded this update. Based on this new research, additional copper bond wire vulnerabilities were found in the literature - Crevice corrosion, intrinsic degradation of palladium coated copper wire, congregation of palladium near ball bond interface leading to failure, residual aluminum pad metallization impact on device lifetimes, stitch cracking phenomena, package delamination's that have resulted in wire bond failures and device failure due to elemental sulfur. A search of the U.S.A. patent web site found 3 noteworthy patents on the following developments: claim of a certain IMC (Intermetallic Compound) thickness as a mitigation solution to chlorine corrosion; claim of using materials with different pHs to neutralize contaminants in a package containing copper wire bonds; and a discussion on ball shear test threshold values for different applications. In addition, an aerospace contractor of military hardware had a presentation on copper bond wires where it was reported that there was a parametric shift and noise susceptibility of devices with copper bond wires which affected legacy design performance. A review of silver bond wire (another emerging technology) technical papers found that an electromigration failure mechanism was evident in device applications that operate under high current conditions. More studies may need to be performed on a comprehensive basis. Research areas for consideration are suggested, however, these research and or qualification/standard test areas are not all inclusive and should not be construed as the element (s) that delivers any potential copper wire bond solution. A false sense of security may occur, whenever there is a reliance on passing any particular qualification, standard, or test protocol.

Rutkowski, E.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit Via Shuttle_Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982 to 1986 joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-United States Air Force (USAF) Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37 deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57 deg inclined orbit: 9,545 versus 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight, respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a 1 hr window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer versus 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three versus two burn transfer (12 vs. 1-1/4 hr), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer.

Orbital trajectory design↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Volcanism in Eastern Africa

In 1891, the Virunga Mountains of Eastern Zaire were first acknowledged as volcanoes, and since then, the Virunga Mountain chain has demonstrated its potentially violent volcanic nature. The Virunga Mountains lie across the Eastern African Rift in an E-W direction located north of Lake Kivu. Mt. Nyamuragira and Mt. Nyiragongo present the most hazard of the eight mountains making up Virunga volcanic field, with the most recent activity during the 1970-90's. In 1977, after almost eighty years of moderate activity and periods of quiescence, Mt. Nyamuragira became highly active with lava flows that extruded from fissures on flanks circumscribing the volcano. The flows destroyed vast areas of vegetation and Zairian National Park areas, but no casualties were reported. Mt. Nyiragongo exhibited the same type volcanic activity, in association with regional tectonics that effected Mt. Nyamuragira, with variations of lava lake levels, lava fountains, and lava flows that resided in Lake Kivu. Mt. Nyiragongo, recently named a Decade volcano, presents both a direct and an indirect hazard to the inhabitants and properties located near the volcano. The Virunga volcanoes pose four major threats: volcanic eruptions, lava flows, toxic gas emission (CH4 and CO2), and earthquakes. Thus, the volcanoes of the Eastern African volcanic field emanate harm to the surrounding area by the forecast of volcanic eruptions. During the JSC Summer Fellowship program, we will acquire and collate remote sensing, photographic (Space Shuttle images), topographic and field data. In addition, maps of the extent and morphology(ies) of the features will be constructed using digital image information. The database generated will serve to create a Geographic Information System for easy access of information of the Eastem African volcanic field. The analysis of volcanism in Eastern Africa will permit a comparison for those areas from which we have field data. Results from this summer's work will permit further study and monitoring of the volcanic activity in the area. This is of concern due to the large numbers of refugees fleeing into Zaire where they are being positioned at the base of Mt. Nyiragongo. The refugees located at the base of the volcano are in direct hazard of suffocation by gas emission and destruction by lava flow. The results from this summer study will be used to secure future funding to enable continuation of this project.

Cauthen, Clay↗
NASA NTRS2018

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study

The Booz Allen Team explored market size and potential barriers to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) by focusing on three potential markets – Airport Shuttle, Air Taxi, and Air Ambulance. We found that the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi markets are viable, with a significant total available market value in the U.S. of $500 billion, for a fully unconstrained scenario. In this unconstrained best-case scenario, passengers would have the ability to access and fly a UAM at any time, from any location to any destination, without being hindered by constraints such as weather, infrastructure, or traffic volume. Significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, public perception, and infrastructure constraints exist, which reduce the market potential for these applications to only about 0.5% of the total available market, or $2.5 billion, in the near term. However, we determined that these constraints can be addressed through ongoing intra-governmental partnerships, government and industry collaboration, strong industry commitment, and existing legal and regulatory enablers. We found that the Air Ambulance market is not a viable market if served by electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles due to technology constraints but may potentially be viable if a hybrid VTOL aircraft are utilized. The barriers and challenges we characterized in this study can be stratified according to their applicability or potential mitigation through technology as well as market maturity (Figure 1). In the near term, high cost of service will be a key economic challenge. We found potential for significant reduction in service cost through increased vehicle and component efficiency, and automation in a more mature market scenario. Weather conditions also pose a challenge to the UAM market, though there is potential for mitigation of some of these impacts through technology such as sensors enabling operations in low visibility. However, even in a mature market with advanced technology, disruptions are still likely to occur due to weather events such as thunderstorms and strong winds. High density operations will likely stress the current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system in the near term, but technology and new initiatives such as the Air Traffic Management -eXploration project (ATM-X) will enable safe and efficient integration of UAM into the National Airspace System (NAS). Current battery technology creates a barrier in the near term, especially for the Air Ambulance market, as battery weight and extensive recharging times would be needed for these operations. Advancements in battery technology, as well as use of hybrid VTOLs, could significantly reduce this barrier in the longer term. As UAM emerges as a viable mode of transportation in the near term, adverse energy and environmental impacts, particularly noise, may impact community acceptance and potentially persist as the market matures into larger-scale operations. For non-technology related challenges, we found that infrastructure constraints will create a significant barrier to UAM in the near term but could be addressed in the longer term through development and expansion of vertiports. Competition from existing modes of transportation such as ride-sharing (e.g., Lyft, Uber) and ground taxi’s pose a key barrier to UAM in the short term, which will likely evolve into competition from other emerging technologies such as autonomous cars and electric trains in the longer term. Weather events will influence other components of the operation such as passenger comfort (e.g., extreme temperatures, turbulence) and infrastructure (e.g., winter weather causing cracks and degradation in vertiports). There is also potential for these impacts to be heightened in the longer term from the increased frequency of adverse weather such as thunderstorms due to changing climatic conditions. We also found that the public has strong concerns about safety as a passenger in a piloted UAM, including “lasing” of pilots, unruly passengers, and sabotage. They would prefer that all passengers pass through a security screening process before boarding a vehicle. They would also prefer to use UAM for longer regional trips, such as flying from Washington, DC to Baltimore, MD or San Diego, CA to Los Angeles, CA. A longer term automated UAM vehicle market will face challenges due to public apprehension about automation and unmanned operations, and a preference to fly with passengers they know in an autonomous (unmanned) operational scenario.

Rohit Goyal↗
NASA NTRS2005

Encryption for Remote Control via Internet or Intranet

A data-communication protocol has been devised to enable secure, reliable remote control of processes and equipment via a collision-based network, while using minimal bandwidth and computation. The network could be the Internet or an intranet. Control is made secure by use of both a password and a dynamic key, which is sent transparently to a remote user by the controlled computer (that is, the computer, located at the site of the equipment or process to be controlled, that exerts direct control over the process). The protocol functions in the presence of network latency, overcomes errors caused by missed dynamic keys, and defeats attempts by unauthorized remote users to gain control. The protocol is not suitable for real-time control, but is well suited for applications in which control latencies up to about 0.5 second are acceptable. The encryption scheme involves the use of both a dynamic and a private key, without any additional overhead that would degrade performance. The dynamic key is embedded in the equipment- or process-monitor data packets sent out by the controlled computer: in other words, the dynamic key is a subset of the data in each such data packet. The controlled computer maintains a history of the last 3 to 5 data packets for use in decrypting incoming control commands. In addition, the controlled computer records a private key (password) that is given to the remote computer. The encrypted incoming command is permuted by both the dynamic and private key. A person who records the command data in a given packet for hostile purposes cannot use that packet after the public key expires (typically within 3 seconds). Even a person in possession of an unauthorized copy of the command/remote-display software cannot use that software in the absence of the password. The use of a dynamic key embedded in the outgoing data makes the central-processing unit overhead very small. The use of a National Instruments DataSocket(TradeMark) (or equivalent) protocol or the User Datagram Protocol makes it possible to obtain reasonably short response times: Typical response times in event-driven control, using packets sized .300 bytes, are <0.2 second for commands issued from locations anywhere on Earth. The protocol requires that control commands represent absolute values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified temperature), as distinguished from changes in values of controlled parameters (e.g., a specified increment of temperature). Each command is issued three or more times to ensure delivery in crowded networks. The use of absolute-value commands prevents additional (redundant) commands from causing trouble. Because a remote controlling computer receives "talkback" in the form of data packets from the controlled computer, typically within a time interval < or =1 s, the controlling computer can re-issue a command if network failure has occurred. The controlled computer, the process or equipment that it controls, and any human operator(s) at the site of the controlled equipment or process should be equipped with safety measures to prevent damage to equipment or injury to humans. These features could be a combination of software, external hardware, and intervention by the human operator(s). The protocol is not fail-safe, but by adopting these safety measures as part of the protocol, one makes the protocol a robust means of controlling remote processes and equipment by use of typical office computers via intranets and/or the Internet.

Lineberger, Lewis↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy and advocacy at the agency, enabling future missions and advancing U.S. economic competitiveness. Specifically, OCT coordinates and uses inputs from abroad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OCT develops the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OCT has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OCT as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗
NASA NTRS2023

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (recently separated into the new Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate and Space Operations Mission Directorate). The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) provides strategic advice, supported by independent assessments and rigorous analysis, to inform NASA senior leadership on key areas to align mission and agency-level activities. OTPS serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy at the agency to enable future missions. Specifically, OTPS coordinates and uses inputs from a broad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OTPS develops and maintains the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OTPS has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OTPS as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗