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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Late-Quaternary climatic change on the American North Pacific Coast

The late Quaternary climate of the North Pacific, where according to modelling the solar radiation in the early Holocene at the time of the summer solstice is high and in the late Holocene is relatively low, is investigated. Quantitative temperature and precipitation estimates from southern Alaska are compared with estimates from western Washington and British Columbia. Data extending over more than 10,000 years show a broadly consistent pattern of climatic change in general agreement with predicted variations in solar radiation and their effect on atmospheric circulation and seasonal duration of pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean. In the early Holocene, the subtropical North Pacific anticyclone annually regulated climate for a longer period at higher latitudes than at present, so that warmth and dryness increased in southern Alaska. The Aleutian low-pressure center intensified during the late Holocene, resulting in colder and more humid coastal climate and increased frequency of glacier growth in the cordillera.

Heusser, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An auroral model for the NCAR thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM)

A model of high latitude auroral processes has been developed for use in the NCAR TGCM. The ion drift pattern associated with magnetospheric convection is specified by the empirical model of Heelis et al. (1982) considering offset geographic and geomagnetic poles. An analytic prescription of particle precipitation in the auroral oval is developed that enables rapid numerical evaluation of auroral ionization rates and global aurora power input. An analytic expression has been derived for the total ionization rate and an ion chemical scheme is used to calculate the electron density enhancements and ion density distributions caused by auroral particle precipitation. The results of TGCM runs with and without auroral particle precipitation show the importance of auroral ionization in determining the dynamic structure of the winter hemisphere lower thermosphere.

Roble, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

TRMM Precipitation Radar Reflectivity Profiles Compared to High-Resolution Airborne and Ground-Based Radar Measurements

In this paper, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite) Precipitation Radar (PR) products are evaluated by means of simultaneous comparisons with data from the high-altitude ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), as well as ground-based radars. The comparison is aimed primarily at the vertical reflectivity structure, which is of key importance in TRMM rain type classification and latent heating estimation. The radars used in this study have considerably different viewing geometries and resolutions, demanding non-trivial mapping procedures in common earth-relative coordinates. Mapped vertical cross sections and mean profiles of reflectivity from the PR, EDOP, and ground-based radars are compared for six cases. These cases cover a stratiform frontal rainband, convective cells of various sizes and stages, and a hurricane. For precipitating systems that are large relative to the PR footprint size, PR reflectivity profiles compare very well to high-resolution measurements thresholded to the PR minimum reflectivity, and derived variables such as bright band height and rain types are accurate, even at high PR incidence angles. It was found that for, the PR reflectivity of convective cells small relative to the PR footprint is weaker than in reality. Some of these differences can be explained by non-uniform beam filling. For other cases where strong reflectivity gradients occur within a PR footprint, the reflectivity distribution is spread out due to filtering by the PR antenna illumination pattern. In these cases, rain type classification may err and be biased towards the stratiform type, and the average reflectivity tends to be underestimated. The limited sensitivity of the PR implies that the upper regions of precipitation systems remain undetected and that the PR storm top height estimate is unreliable, usually underestimating the actual storm top height. This applies to all cases but the discrepancy is larger for smaller cells where limited sensitivity is compounded by incomplete beam filling. Users of level three TRMM PR products should be aware of this scale dependency.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cloud/climate sensitivity experiments

A study of the relationships between large-scale cloud fields and large scale circulation patterns is presented. The basic tool is a multi-level numerical model comprising conservation equations for temperature, water vapor and cloud water and appropriate parameterizations for evaporation, condensation, precipitation and radiative feedbacks. Incorporating an equation for cloud water in a large-scale model is somewhat novel and allows the formation and advection of clouds to be treated explicitly. The model is run on a two-dimensional, vertical-horizontal grid with constant winds. It is shown that cloud cover increases with decreased eddy vertical velocity, decreased horizontal advection, decreased atmospheric temperature, increased surface temperature, and decreased precipitation efficiency. The cloud field is found to be well correlated with the relative humidity field except at the highest levels. When radiative feedbacks are incorporated and the temperature increased by increasing CO2 content, cloud amounts decrease at upper-levels or equivalently cloud top height falls. This reduces the temperature response, especially at upper levels, compared with an experiment in which cloud cover is fixed.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Forbes, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Strings of Eta Carina: The HST/STIS Spectra and [Ca II]

Long linear, filamentary ejecta, are found to move at very high velocity external to the Homunculus, the circumstellar hourglass-shaped ejecta surrounding Eta Carinae. The origin of the strings is a puzzle. As an example, the Weigelt Blobs have N at 10X solar and C, O at 0.01X solar abundance, along with He/H significantly enhanced. This abundance pattern is evidence for extreme CNO-processing. Similarly, the Strontium Filament has Ti/Ni at 100X solar, presumably due to the lack of oxygen to form Ti-oxide precipitates onto dust grains. We have obtained 2-D spectra with the HST/STIS of the Strontium Filament and a portion of a string. These deep spectral exposures, at moderate dispersion, span much of the near red spectral region from 5000 to 9000A. We have identified twelve emission lines in these spectra with proper velocities and spatial structure of this string and obtained line ratios for [Ca II] (7293/7325A) and [Fe Ill (7157/8619A) which are useful for determining physical conditions in this nebulosity. In an attempt to use the [Ca II] ratio to determine the physical parameters, and ultimately the abundances in the strings, we have constructed a statistical equilibrium model for Ca II , including radiative and collisional rates. These results incorporate our newly calculated atomic data for levels n = 3,4,5 and 6 configurations of Ca II. The aim is to compute the [Ca II] line ratios and use them as a diagnostic of the physical parameters. Using the [Fe II] ratio we find that for Te=10,000 K, the electron density is Ne approx.10(exp 6)/cu cm. We plan to use the [Ca II] ratio to confirm this result. Then, we will extend the use of this multilevel model Ca II atom to study the physical conditions of the Strontium filament where eight lines of Ca II, both allowed and forbidden, had been identified. With the physical conditions determined, we will be able to derive reliable estimates for the gas phase abundances in the strings.

Melendez, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Cusp region particle precipitation and ion convection for northward interplanetary magnetic field

Data from Atmosphere Explorer D for periods of strong northward interplanetary magnetic field are discussed. In the dayside magnetospheric cusp region energy time spectrograms of suprathermal positive ion fluxes exhibit a characteristic 'V' pattern as the spacecraft moves toward higher latitudes; that is, with the peak in the energy spectrum falling in energy and then rising again. Convection velocities follow this pattern closely with strong eastwest flows (with antisunward components) occurring in the equatorward half of the 'V' and significant sunward flows occurring in the poleward half of the 'V'. These patterns can be understood qualitatively in terms of a model of ionospheric electric potential produced by the known dependence of Birkeland current densities on magnetic activity.

Burch, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of the Mosquito Community in Central Oklahoma

Mosquitoes (Culicidae) are ubiquitous flying insects that function as vectors for several viruses that cause disease in humans. Mosquito abundance and diversity are influenced by landscape features and environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation and vary across seasons and years. The range and phenology of many mosquito species that vector viruses relevant to human health are changing. We sampled mosquito communities in central Oklahoma for four years at thirteen sites, collecting over 25,000 mosquitoes; among these, we identified 27 different species, including several that transmit human pathogens and were collected in suburban backyards. Community composition differed across the landscape and changed from early season to late season and year to year. This effort to describe mosquito communities in Oklahoma is a first step toward assessing and predicting arbovirus risk, an ongoing and dynamic public health challenge.

David Hoekman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis With A Stationary Wave Model

In late December 2022 and the first half of January 2023, much of California experienced an unprecedented series of atmospheric rivers that produced heavy rains and near-record flooding. Previous work shows that a chain of dynamical events contributed to the extreme precipitation, including the development of a Rossby wave (as a result of forcing linked to the MJO) that emerged from the Indian Ocean in mid-December, and the subsequent development of a persistent positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern that ultimately directed moisture onto the US West Coast starting in late December. Here, we use a stationary wave model (SWM) to further elucidate the dynamical and thermodynamical processes that drove the aforementioned chain of events. The results reveal the following: 1) The mid-December Rossby wave was likely induced by vorticity stretching and advection in the middle East linked indirectly to the MJO, 2) The initial development of the PNA in late December was triggered by transient and stretching sources of vorticity in the Pacific that were themselves induced by the aforementioned Rossby wave, and 3) The PNA was maintained through mid-January in part by diabatic heating west of Hawaii that was associated with anomalous precipitation influenced by the PNA circulation anomalies, thus representing a feedback on the PNA. One key finding from the SWM analysis is the limited direct role of tropical heating for inducing any of the dynamical mechanisms related to the California extreme event.

Anthony M. DeAngelis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical Mechanisms Underlying the 2022/23 California Flooding: Analysis With A Stationary Wave Model

In late December 2022 and the first half of January 2023, much of California experienced an unprecedented series of atmospheric rivers that produced heavy rains and near-record flooding. Previous work shows that a chain of dynamical events contributed to the extreme precipitation, including the development of a Rossby wave (as a result of forcing linked to the MJO) that emerged from the Indian Ocean in mid-December, and the subsequent development of a persistent positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern that ultimately directed moisture onto the US West Coast starting in late December. Here, we use a stationary wave model (SWM) to further elucidate the dynamical and thermodynamical processes that drove the aforementioned chain of events. The results reveal the following: 1) The mid-December Rossby wave was likely induced by vorticity stretching and advection in the middle East linked indirectly to the MJO, 2) The initial development of the PNA in late December was triggered by transient and stretching sources of vorticity in the Pacific that were themselves induced by the aforementioned Rossby wave, and 3) The PNA was maintained through mid-January in part by diabatic heating west of Hawaii that was associated with anomalous precipitation influenced by the PNA circulation anomalies, thus representing a feedback on the PNA. One key finding from the SWM analysis is the limited direct role of tropical heating for inducing any of the dynamical mechanisms related to the California extreme event.

Anthony M. DeAngelis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Monsoon↗
NASA NTRS1985

Passive microwave precipitation measurements for EOS

It is currently planned to mount a Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on the manned Space Station (MSS) to obtain quantitative global precipitation data. Passive SSM/I instruments could also be included on other satellites, and function in the 19.35 GHz, V/H polarization, 22.35 GHz, V polarization, 37.0, V/H polarization, and 85.5 GHz, V/H polarization modes. Two polar orbiting satellites and the unit on the MSS would be needed to establish a database sufficient for studying monthly, daily and diurnal precipitation variations that are accurate for local regions. Realization of an effective system depends on the development of algorithms for discriminating between rainfall, snow, light rain and ocean background radiation patterns.

Spencer, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale Climate Features and Climate Sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development of Life on Early Mars

Exploration of Mars has begun to unveil the history of the planet. Combinations of remote sensing, in situ compositional measurements and photographic observations have shown Mars had a dynamic and active geologic evolution. Mars geologic evolution encompassed conditions that were suitable for supporting life. A habitable planet must have water, carbon and energy sources along with a dynamic geologic past. Mars meets all of these requirements. The first 600 My of Martian history were ripe for life to develop because of the abundance of (i) Water- as shown by carved canyons and oceans or lakes with the early presence of near surface water shown by precipitated carbonates in ALH84001, well-dated at ~3.9 Gy, (ii) Energy from the original accretional processes, a molten core which generated a strong magnetic field leaving a permanent record in the early crust, active volcanism continuing throughout Martian history, and continuing impact processes, (iii) Carbon, water and a likely thicker atmosphere from extensive volcanic outgassing (i.e. H20, CO2, CH4, CO, O2, N2, H2S, SO2, etc.) and (iv) crustal tectonics as revealed by faulting and possible plate movement reflected by the magnetic pattern in the crust [1]. The question arises: "Why would life not develop from these favorable conditions on Mars in its first 600 My?" During this period, environmental near-surface conditions on Mars were more favorable to life than at any later time. Standing bodies of water, precipitation and flowing surface water, and possibly abundant hydrothermal energy would favor the formation of early life. (Even if life developed elsewhere on Earth, Venus, or on other bodies-it was transported to Mars where surface conditions were suitable for life to evolve). The commonly stated requirement that life would need hundreds of millions of year to get started is only an assumption; we know of no evidence that requires such a long interval for the development of life, if the proper habitable conditions are meet. Perhaps it could start in a very short interval during the first tens of millions of years after crustal formation. Even with impact-driven extinction events, such a short start-up time would allow life to restart multiple times until it persevered. If panspermia is considered, life could be introduced as soon as liquid surface water was present and could instantly thrive and spread.

Gibson, Everett K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Early Mars: A Warm Wet Niche for Life

Exploration of Mars has begun to unveil the history of the planet. Combinations of remote sensing, in situ compositional measurements and photographic observations have shown Mars had a dynamic and active geologic evolution. Mars geologic evolution had conditions that were suitable for supporting life. A habitable planet must have water, carbon and energy sources along with a dynamic geologic past. Mars meets all of these requirements. The first 600 Ma of Martian history were ripe for life to develop because of the abundance of: (i) Water-as shown by carved canyons and oceans or lakes with the early presence of near surface water shown by precipitated carbonates in ALH84001, well-dated at approx.3.9 Ga, (ii) Energy from the original accretional processes, a molten core which generated a strong magnetic field leaving a permanent record in the early crust, active volcanism continuing throughout Martian history, and continuing impact processes, (iii) Carbon, water and a likely thicker atmosphere from extensive volcanic outgassing (i.e. H2O, CO2, CH4, CO, O2, N2, H2S, SO2, etc.) and (iv) crustal tectonics as revealed by faulting and possible plate movement reflected by the magnetic patterns in the crust [1]. The question arises: "Why would life not develop from these favorable conditions on Mars in its first 600 Ma?" During this period, environmental near-surface conditions on Mars were more favorable to life than at any later time. Standing bodies of water, precipitation and flowing surface water, and possibly abundant hydrothermal energy would favor the formation of early life. (Even if life developed elsewhere on Earth, Venus, or on other bodies-it was transported to Mars where surface conditions were suitable for life to evolve)

Gibson, Everett K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Chatanika radar measurements of the electrical properties of auroral arcs

Ionospheric parameters measured in the presence of auroral arcs by the incoherent scatter Chatanika radar are used to define properties of the arcs. The radar broadcasts at 3-5 MW with a range resolution of 4.5 km along the radar line-of-sight, and has yielded auroral measurements on the variation of electron density, Hall and Pederson conductivity, horizontal electric fields, electrojet currents, precipitating electron energy flux, and the Joule heating rate. Elevation-scan techniques have been utilized to study the latitude and altitude variation of the ionospheric plasma parameters, and fixed-position scans allow determination of ionization conditions, including the electric fields and the acceleration of precipitating auroral electrons. Arcs in the diffuse aurora have been found to be local conductivity enhancements, while discrete arcs correspond to the boundary plasma sheet and have an asymmetric electric field pattern reduced on the northward side.

Vondrak, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Conditions on Early Mars Might Have Fostered Rapid and Early Development of Life

The exploration of Mars during the past decades has begun to unveil the history of the planet. The combinations of remote sensing, in situ geochemical compositional measurements and photographic observations from both above and on the surface have shown Mars to have a dynamic and active geologic evolution. Mars geologic evolution clearly had conditions that were suitable for supporting life. For a planet to be able to be habitable, it must have water, carbon sources, energy sources and a dynamic geologic past. Mars meets all of these requirements. The first 600 My of Martian history were ripe for life to develop because of the abundance of (i) Water-carved canyons and oceans or lakes with the early presence of near surface water shown by precipitated carbonates in ALH84001 well-dated at approx.3.9 Gy., (ii) Energy from the original accretional processes, a molten core which generated a strong magnetic field leaving a permanent record in the early crust, early active volcanism continuing throughout Martian history, and, and continuing impact processes, (iii) Carbon and water from possibly extensive volcanic outgassing (i.e. H2O, CO2, CH4, CO, O2, N2, H2S, SO2, etc.) and (iv) some crustal tectonics as revealed by faulting and possible plate movement reflected by the magnetic pattern in the crust. The question arises: "Why would life not evolve from these favorable conditions on early Mars in its first 600 My?" During this period, it seems likely that environmental near-surface conditions on Mars were more favorable to life than at any later time. Standing bodies of water, precipitation and flowing surface water, and possibly abundant hydrothermal energy would all favor the formation of early life. Even if life developed elsewhere (on Earth, Venus, or on other solar systems) and was transported to Mars, the surface conditions were likely very hospitable for that introduced life to multiply and evolve.

Gibson, Everett K.↗