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At least 451 records · Page 25

Incipient fault detection study for advanced spacecraft systems

A feasibility study to investigate the application of vibration monitoring to the rotating machinery of planned NASA advanced spacecraft components is described. Factors investigated include: (1) special problems associated with small, high RPM machines; (2) application across multiple component types; (3) microgravity; (4) multiple fault types; (5) eight different analysis techniques including signature analysis, high frequency demodulation, cepstrum, clustering, amplitude analysis, and pattern recognition are compared; and (6) small sample statistical analysis is used to compare performance by computation of probability of detection and false alarm for an ensemble of repeated baseline and faulted tests. Both detection and classification performance are quantified. Vibration monitoring is shown to be an effective means of detecting the most important problem types for small, high RPM fans and pumps typical of those planned for the advanced spacecraft. A preliminary monitoring system design and implementation plan is presented.

Milner, G. Martin↗

Analysis of homogeneous turbulent reacting flows

Full turbulence simulations at low Reynolds numbers were made for the single-step, irreversible, bimolecular reaction between non-premixed reactants in isochoric, decaying homogeneous turbulence. Various initial conditions for the scalar field were used in the simulations to control the initial scalar dissipation length scale, and simulations were also made for temperature-dependent reaction rates and for non-stoichiometric and unequal diffusivity conditions. Joint probability density functions (pdf's), conditional pdf's, and various statistical quantities appearing in the moment equations were computed. Preliminary analysis of the results indicates that compressive strain-rate correlates better than other dynamical quantities with local reaction rate, and the locations of peak reaction rates seem to be insensitive to the scalar field initial conditions.

Leonard, A. D.↗

Bayesian learning

In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.

Denning, Peter J.↗

ROSAT X-ray Study of the Stellar Population of the Chamaeleon I Dark Cloud

Two soft X-ray images of the Chamaeleon I cloud obtained with the ROSAT PSPC are presented. Seventy reliable, and perhaps 19 additional X-ray sources are found. Up to 90% of these sources are certainly or probably identified with T Tauri stars formed in the cloud. Twenty to 35 are probably new 'weak' T Tauri (WTT) stars. We summarize a statistical study of the relationships between X-ray emission and other physical properties for a number of Chamaeleon stars. We see no difference in spatial distributions, detection rate and luminosity functions between the WTTS and CTTS.

Casanova, S.↗

Report to TRMM

The effort involved three elements all related to the measurement of rain and clouds using microwaves: (1) Examine recently proposed techniques for measuring rainfall rate and rain water content using data from ground-based radars and the TRMM microwave link in order to develop improved ground validation and radar calibration techniques; (2) Develop dual-polarization, multiple frequency radar techniques for estimating rain water content and cloud water content to interpret the vertical profiles of radar reflectivity factors (Z) measured by the TRMM Precipitation Radar; and (3) Investigate theoretically and experimentally the potential biases in TRMM Z measurements due to spatial inhomogeneities in precipitation. The research succeeded in addressing all of these topics, resulting in several refereed publications. In addition, the research indicated that the effects of non-Rayleigh statistics resulting from the nature of the precipitation inhomogeneities will probably not result in serious errors for the TRMM radar measurements, but the TRMM radiometers may be subject to significant bias due to the inhomogeneities.

Jameson, Arthur R.↗

Report to TRMM

The effort involved three elements all related to the measurement of rain and clouds using microwaves: (1) Examine recently proposed techniques for measuring rainfall rate and rain water content using data from ground-based radars and the TRMM microwave link in order to develop improved ground validation and radar calibration techniques; (2) Develop dual-polarization, multiple frequency radar techniques for estimating rain water content and cloud water content to interpret the vertical profiles of radar reflectivity factors (Z) measured by the TRMM Precipitation Radar; and (3) Investigate theoretically and experimentally the potential biases in TRMM Z measurements due to spatial inhomogeneities in precipitation. The research succeeded in addressing all of these topics, resulting in several referred publications. addition, the research indicated that the effects of non-Rayleigh statistics resulting from the nature of the precipitation inhomogeneities will probably not result in serious errors for the TRMM radar Measurements, but the TRMM radiometers may be subject to significant bias due to the inhomogeneities.

Jameson, Arthur R.↗

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Blocking Losses With a Photon Counter

It was not known how to assess accurately losses in a communications link due to photodetector blocking, a phenomenon wherein a detector is rendered inactive for a short time after the detection of a photon. When used to detect a communications signal, blocking leads to losses relative to an ideal detector, which may be measured as a reduction in the communications rate for a given received signal power, or an increase in the signal power required to support the same communications rate. This work involved characterizing blocking losses for single detectors and arrays of detectors. Blocking may be mitigated by spreading the signal intensity over an array of detectors, reducing the count rate on any one detector. A simple approximation was made to the blocking loss as a function of the probability that a detector is unblocked at a given time, essentially treating the blocking probability as a scaling of the detection efficiency. An exact statistical characterization was derived for a single detector, and an approximation for multiple detectors. This allowed derivation of several accurate approximations to the loss. Methods were also derived to account for a rise time in recovery, and non-uniform illumination due to diffraction and atmospheric distortion of the phase front. It was assumed that the communications signal is intensity modulated and received by an array of photon-counting photodetectors. For the purpose of this analysis, it was assumed that the detectors are ideal, in that they produce a signal that allows one to reproduce the arrival times of electrons, produced either as photoelectrons or from dark noise, exactly. For single detectors, the performance of the maximum-likelihood (ML) receiver in blocking is illustrated, as well as a maximum-count (MC) receiver, that, when receiving a pulse-position-modulated (PPM) signal, selects the symbol corresponding to the slot with the largest electron count. Whereas the MC receiver saturates at high count rates, the ML receiver may not. The loss in capacity, symbol-error-rate (SER), and count-rate were numerically computed. It was shown that the capacity and symbol-error-rate losses track, whereas the count-rate loss does not generally reflect the SER or capacity loss, as the slot-statistics at the detector output are no longer Poisson. It is also shown that the MC receiver loss may be accurately predicted for dead times on the order of a slot.

Moision, Burce E.↗

Voids and constraints on nonlinear clustering of galaxies

Void statistics of the galaxy distribution in the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey provide strong constraints on galaxy clustering in the nonlinear regime, i.e., on scales R equal to or less than 10/h Mpc. Computation of high-order moments of the galaxy distribution requires a sample that (1) densely traces the large-scale structure and (2) covers sufficient volume to obtain good statistics. The CfA redshift survey densely samples structure on scales equal to or less than 10/h Mpc and has sufficient depth and angular coverage to approach a fair sample on these scales. In the nonlinear regime, the void probability function (VPF) for CfA samples exhibits apparent agreement with hierarchical scaling (such scaling implies that the N-point correlation functions for N greater than 2 depend only on pairwise products of the two-point function xi(r)) However, simulations of cosmological models show that this scaling in redshift space does not necessarily imply such scaling in real space, even in the nonlinear regime; peculiar velocities cause distortions which can yield erroneous agreement with hierarchical scaling. The underdensity probability measures the frequency of 'voids' with density rho less than 0.2 -/rho. This statistic reveals a paucity of very bright galaxies (L greater than L asterisk) in the 'voids.' Underdensities are equal to or greater than 2 sigma more frequent in bright galaxy samples than in samples that include fainter galaxies. Comparison of void statistics of CfA samples with simulations of a range of cosmological models favors models with Gaussian primordial fluctuations and Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-like initial power spectra. Biased models tend to produce voids that are too empty. We also compare these data with three specific models of the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony: an unbiased, open universe CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.5) provides a good match to the VPF of the CfA samples. Biasing of the galaxy distribution in the 'standard' CDM model (omega = 1, b = 1.5; see below for definitions) and nonzero cosmological constant CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.6 lambda(sub 0) = 0.6, b = 1.3) produce voids that are too empty. All three simulations match the observed VPF and underdensity probability for samples of very bright (M less than M asterisk = -19.2) galaxies, but produce voids that are too empty when compared with samples that include fainter galaxies.

Vogeley, Michael S.↗

Modeling of the reactant conversion rate in a turbulent shear flow

Results are presented of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of spatially developing shear flows under the influence of infinitely fast chemical reactions of the type A + B yields Products. The simulation results are used to construct the compositional structure of the scalar field in a statistical manner. The results of this statistical analysis indicate that the use of a Beta density for the probability density function (PDF) of an appropriate Shvab-Zeldovich mixture fraction provides a very good estimate of the limiting bounds of the reactant conversion rate within the shear layer. This provides a strong justification for the implementation of this density in practical modeling of non-homogeneous turbulent reacting flows. However, the validity of the model cannot be generalized for predictions of higher order statistical quantities. A closed form analytical expression is presented for predicting the maximum rate of reactant conversion in non-homogeneous reacting turbulence.

Frankel, S. H.↗

Operations for Learning with Graphical Models

This paper is a multidisciplinary review of empirical, statistical learning from a graphical model perspective. Well-known examples of graphical models include Bayesian net- works, directed graphs representing a Markov chain, and undirected networks representing a Markov field. These graphical models are extended to model data analysis and empirical learning using the notation of plates. Graphical operations for simplifying and manipulating a problem are provided including decomposition, differentiation, and the manipulation of probability models from the exponential family. These operations adapt existing techniques from statistics and automatic differentiation to graphs. Two standard algorithm schemes for learning are reviewed in a graphical framework: Gibbs sampling and the expectation maximization algorithm. Some algorithms are developed in this graphical framework including a generalized version of linear regression, techniques for feed-forward networks, and learning Gaussian and discrete Bayesian networks from data. The paper concludes by sketching some implications for data analysis and summarizing some popular algorithms that fall within the framework presented. The main original contributions here are the decomposition techniques and the demonstration that graphical models provide a framework for understanding and developing complex learning algorithms.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

A Methodology for Determining Statistical Performance Compliance for Airborne Doppler Radar with Forward-Looking Turbulence Detection Capability

The objective of the research developed and presented in this document was to statistically assess turbulence hazard detection performance employing airborne pulse Doppler radar systems. The FAA certification methodology for forward looking airborne turbulence radars will require estimating the probabilities of missed and false hazard indications under operational conditions. Analytical approaches must be used due to the near impossibility of obtaining sufficient statistics experimentally. This report describes an end-to-end analytical technique for estimating these probabilities for Enhanced Turbulence (E-Turb) Radar systems under noise-limited conditions, for a variety of aircraft types, as defined in FAA TSO-C134. This technique provides for one means, but not the only means, by which an applicant can demonstrate compliance to the FAA directed ATDS Working Group performance requirements. Turbulence hazard algorithms were developed that derived predictive estimates of aircraft hazards from basic radar observables. These algorithms were designed to prevent false turbulence indications while accurately predicting areas of elevated turbulence risks to aircraft, passengers, and crew; and were successfully flight tested on a NASA B757-200 and a Delta Air Lines B737-800. Application of this defined methodology for calculating the probability of missed and false hazard indications taking into account the effect of the various algorithms used, is demonstrated for representative transport aircraft and radar performance characteristics.

Bowles, Roland L.↗

High-accuracy computation of Delta V magnitude probability densities - Preliminary remarks

This paper describes an algorithm for the high accuracy computation of some statistical quantities of the magnitude of a random trajectory correction maneuver (TCM). The trajectory correction velocity increment Delta V is assumed to be a three-component random vector with each component being a normally distributed random scalar having a possibly nonzero mean. Knowledge of the statitiscal properties of the magnitude of a random TCM is important in the planning and execution of maneuver strategies for deep-space missions such as Galileo. The current algorithm involves the numerical integration of a set of differential equations. This approach allows the computation of density functions for specific Delta V magnitude distributions to high accuracy without first having to generate large numbers of random samples. Possible applications of the algorithm to maneuver planning, planetary quarantine evaluation, and guidance success probability calculations are described.

Chadwick, C.↗

The Moving Group Targets of the Seeds High-Contrast Imaging Survey of Exoplanets and Disks: Results and Observations from the First Three Years

We present results from the first three years of observations of moving group (MG) targets in the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru (SEEDS) high-contrast imaging survey of exoplanets and disks using the Subaru telescope. We achieve typical contrasts of (is) approximately10(exp 5) at 1" and (is) approximately 10(exp 6) beyond 2" around 63 proposed members of nearby kinematic MGs. We review each of the kinematic associations to which our targets belong, concluding that five, beta Pictoris ((is) approximately 20 Myr), AB Doradus ((is) approximately 100 Myr), Columba ((is) approximately 30 Myr), Tucana-Horogium ((is) approximately 30 Myr), and TW Hydrae ((is) approximately 10 Myr), are sufficiently well-defined to constrain the ages of individual targets. Somewhat less than half of our targets are high-probability members of one of these MGs. For all of our targets, we combine proposed MG membership with other age indicators where available, including Ca ii HK emission, X-ray activity, and rotation period, to produce a posterior probability distribution of age. SEEDS observations discovered a substellar companion to one of our targets, kappa And, a late B star. We do not detect any other substellar companions, but do find seven new close binary systems, of which one still needs to be confirmed. A detailed analysis of the statistics of this sample, and of the companion mass constraints given our age probability distributions and exoplanet cooling models, will be presented in a forthcoming paper.

SEEDS high-contrast imaging survey of exoplanets↗

Development of a Probabilistic Component Mode Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Non-Deterministic Substructures

Standard methods of structural dynamic analysis assume that the structural characteristics are deterministic. Recognizing that these characteristics are actually statistical in nature, researchers have recently developed a variety of methods that use this information to determine probabilities of a desired response characteristic, such as natural frequency, without using expensive Monte Carlo simulations. One of the problems in these methods is correctly identifying the statistical properties of primitive variables such as geometry, stiffness, and mass. This paper presents a method where the measured dynamic properties of substructures are used instead as the random variables. The residual flexibility method of component mode synthesis is combined with the probabilistic methods to determine the cumulative distribution function of the system eigenvalues. A simple cantilever beam test problem is presented that illustrates the theory.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

Probabilistic Component Mode Synthesis of Nondeterministic Substructures

Standard methods of structural dynamic analysis assume that the structural characteristics are deterministic. Recognizing that these characteristics are actually statistical in nature researchers have recently developed a variety of methods that use this information to determine probabilities of a desired response characteristic, such as natural frequency, without using expensive Monte Carlo simulations. One of the problems in these methods is correctly identifying the statistical properties of primitive variables such as geometry, stiffness, and mass. We present a method where the measured dynamic properties of substructures are used instead as the random variables. The residual flexibility method of component mode synthesis is combined with the probabilistic methods to determine the cumulative distribution function of the system eigenvalues. A simple cantilever beam test problem is presented that illustrates the theory.

Brown, Andrew M.↗

A model function for ocean radar cross sections at 14.6 GHz

The relationship between the ocean's normalized radar cross section (NRCS) at 14.6 GHz and the surface wind vector is derived using the 3 months of Seasat microwave scatterometer (SASS) measurements. The derivation is based on the statistics of the SASS observations, and no in situ measurements are required, other than a mean global wind speed, which comes from climatology. The frequency distribution of the global wind vectors observed by SASS is assumed to be a bivariate normal probability function. A NRCS model function is found that maps the assumed wind vector statistics into the observed SASS NRCS statistics. This function is compared with a NRCS model coming from the Joint Air Sea Interaction Experiment (JASIN) and with aircraft scatterometer measurements. The results indicate that the statistically derived NRCS model is an improvement over the JASIN model, which was based on a limited number of in situ anemometer measurements.

Wentz, F. J.↗