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NASA NTRS1989

A Bayesian approach to reliability and confidence

The historical evolution of NASA's interest in quantitative measures of reliability assessment is outlined. The introduction of some quantitative methodologies into the Vehicle Reliability Branch of the Safety, Reliability and Quality Assurance (SR and QA) Division at Johnson Space Center (JSC) was noted along with the development of the Extended Orbiter Duration--Weakest Link study which will utilize quantitative tools for a Bayesian statistical analysis. Extending the earlier work of NASA sponsor, Richard Heydorn, researchers were able to produce a consistent Bayesian estimate for the reliability of a component and hence by a simple extension for a system of components in some cases where the rate of failure is not constant but varies over time. Mechanical systems in general have this property since the reliability usually decreases markedly as the parts degrade over time. While they have been able to reduce the Bayesian estimator to a simple closed form for a large class of such systems, the form for the most general case needs to be attacked by the computer. Once a table is generated for this form, researchers will have a numerical form for the general solution. With this, the corresponding probability statements about the reliability of a system can be made in the most general setting. Note that the utilization of uniform Bayesian priors represents a worst case scenario in the sense that as researchers incorporate more expert opinion into the model, they will be able to improve the strength of the probability calculations.

Barnes, Ron↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software Construction and Analysis Tools for Future Space Missions

NASA and its international partners will increasingly depend on software-based systems to implement advanced functions for future space missions, such as Martian rovers that autonomously navigate long distances exploring geographic features formed by surface water early in the planet's history. The software-based functions for these missions will need to be robust and highly reliable, raising significant challenges in the context of recent Mars mission failures attributed to software faults. After reviewing these challenges, this paper describes tools that have been developed at NASA Ames that could contribute to meeting these challenges; 1) Program synthesis tools based on automated inference that generate documentation for manual review and annotations for automated certification. 2) Model-checking tools for concurrent object-oriented software that achieve memorability through synergy with program abstraction and static analysis tools.

Lowry, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Engineering Software Suite Validates System Design

EDAptive Computing Inc.'s (ECI) EDAstar engineering software tool suite, created to capture and validate system design requirements, was significantly funded by NASA's Ames Research Center through five Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts. These programs specifically developed Syscape, used to capture executable specifications of multi-disciplinary systems, and VectorGen, used to automatically generate tests to ensure system implementations meet specifications. According to the company, the VectorGen tests considerably reduce the time and effort required to validate implementation of components, thereby ensuring their safe and reliable operation. EDASHIELD, an additional product offering from ECI, can be used to diagnose, predict, and correct errors after a system has been deployed using EDASTAR -created models. Initial commercialization for EDASTAR included application by a large prime contractor in a military setting, and customers include various branches within the U.S. Department of Defense, industry giants like the Lockheed Martin Corporation, Science Applications International Corporation, and Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corporation, as well as NASA's Langley and Glenn Research Centers

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Review of Controllers for Low-Power Free-Piston Stirling Convertors

In this paper, a review of various controller approaches for free-piston Stirling convertors (FPSCs) for low-power radioisotope power systems (RPS) is conducted to compare their performances in terms of critical metrics and provide an insight for designing better controllers for future flight projects. Design variables and general analysis methods for the controllers are described and the controllers are classified into different categories based on important design variables, followed by discussions on the operating principles and properties of various controller approaches in each classification category. Moreover, key features of the state-of-the-art controller approaches are summarized whose designs are hypothetically extended to flight designs to compare their critical metrics such as the estimated size, weight, and power with cost (SWaP-C) and reliability. Finally, design suggestions are made to improve certain metrics for future flight development projects. Along with maturation of free-piston Stirling convertor technologies for radioisotope power systems over the last three decades, various types of controllers have been proposed, among which a couple of them were developed to the Engineering Model (EM) for the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight development project. Further improvements of the controllers have been made recently at NASA GRC and the improvements will continue for future flight development projects.

Free-Piston Stirling Convertor Controller↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Review of Controllers for Low-Power Free-Piston Stirling Convertors

Free-Piston Stirling Convertor Controller↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigating the Simulink Auto-Coding Process

Model based program design is the most clear and direct way to develop algorithms and programs for interfacing with hardware. While coding "by hand" results in a more tailored product, the ever-growing size and complexity of modern-day applications can cause the project work load to quickly become unreasonable for one programmer. This has generally been addressed by splitting the product into separate modules to allow multiple developers to work in parallel on the same project, however this introduces new potentials for errors in the process. The fluidity, reliability and robustness of the code relies on the abilities of the programmers to communicate their methods to one another; furthermore, multiple programmers invites multiple potentially differing coding styles into the same product, which can cause a loss of readability or even module incompatibility. Fortunately, Mathworks has implemented an auto-coding feature that allows programmers to design their algorithms through the use of models and diagrams in the graphical programming environment Simulink, allowing the designer to visually determine what the hardware is to do. From here, the auto-coding feature handles converting the project into another programming language. This type of approach allows the designer to clearly see how the software will be directing the hardware without the need to try and interpret large amounts of code. In addition, it speeds up the programming process, minimizing the amount of man-hours spent on a single project, thus reducing the chance of human error as well as project turnover time. One such project that has benefited from the auto-coding procedure is Ramses, a portion of the GNC flight software on-board Orion that has been implemented primarily in Simulink. Currently, however, auto-coding Ramses into C++ requires 5 hours of code generation time. This causes issues if the tool ever needs to be debugged, as this code generation will need to occur with each edit to any part of the program; additionally, this is lost time that could be spent testing and analyzing the code. This is one of the more prominent issues with the auto-coding process, and while much information is available with regard to optimizing Simulink designs to produce efficient and reliable C++ code, not much research has been made public on how to reduce the code generation time. It is of interest to develop some insight as to what causes code generation times to be so significant, and determine if there are architecture guidelines or a desirable auto-coding configuration set to assist in streamlining this step of the design process for particular applications. To address the issue at hand, the Simulink coder was studied at a foundational level. For each different component type made available by the software, the features, auto-code generation time, and the format of the generated code were analyzed and documented. Tools were developed and documented to expedite these studies, particularly in the area of automating sequential builds to ensure accurate data was obtained. Next, the Ramses model was examined in an attempt to determine the composition and the types of technologies used in the model. This enabled the development of a model that uses similar technologies, but takes a fraction of the time to auto-code to reduce the turnaround time for experimentation. Lastly, the model was used to run a wide array of experiments and collect data to obtain knowledge about where to search for bottlenecks in the Ramses model. The resulting contributions of the overall effort consist of an experimental model for further investigation into the subject, as well as several automation tools to assist in analyzing the model, and a reference document offering insight to the auto-coding process, including documentation of the tools used in the model analysis, data illustrating some potential problem areas in the auto-coding process, and recommendations on areas or practices in the current Ramses model that should be further investigated. Several skills were required to be built up over the course of the internship project. First and foremost, my Simulink skills have improved drastically, as much of my experience had been modeling electronic circuits as opposed to software models. Furthermore, I am now comfortable working with the Simulink Auto-coder, a tool I had never used until this summer; this tool also tested my critical thinking and C++ knowledge as I had to interpret the C++ code it was generating and attempt to understand how the Simulink model affected the generated code. I had come into the internship with a solid understanding of Matlab code, but had done very little in using it to automate tasks, particularly Simulink tasks; along the same lines, I had rarely used shell script to automate and interface with programs, which I gained a fair amount of experience with this summer, including how to use regular expression. Lastly, soft-skills are an area everyone can continuously improve on; having never worked with NASA engineers, which to me seem to be a completely different breed than what I am used to (commercial electronic engineers), I learned to utilize the wealth of knowledge present at JSC. I wish I had come into the internship knowing exactly how helpful everyone in my branch would be, as I would have picked up on this sooner. I hope that having gained such a strong foundation in Simulink over this summer will open the opportunity to return to work on this project, or potentially other opportunities within the division. The idea of leaving a project I devoted ten weeks to is a hard one to cope with, so having the chance to pick up where I left off sounds appealing; alternatively, I am interested to see if there are any opening in the future that would allow me to work on a project that is more in-line with my research in estimation algorithms. Regardless, this summer has been a milestone in my professional career, and I hope this has started a long-term relationship between JSC and myself. I really enjoy the thought of building on my experience here over future summers while I work to complete my PhD at Missouri University of Science and Technology.

Gualdoni, Matthew J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Potential of Data Center Controls in Grid Services

The rapid proliferation of large data centers brings both challenges and opportunities for grid reliability. The data center resources and their potential flexibility have the potential to contribute resources to grid operations. Through capabilities like energy shifting and resource coordination, data centers can help reduce their net demand on the transmission network, as well as provide additional grid services to support reliable operation on the grid. While transient and long-term grid planning and operations are the scenarios that draw most attention, the quasi-steady state timeseries (QSTS) operation of data centers and grid bring interesting scenarios that can help evaluate the data center controls to aid grid services. This work is focused on modeling data centers for QSTS applications – incorporating the AI data center load profiles and building on the PNNL digital twin model for the thermal management loads to enable simulation studies to reveal the impact of data center controls on grid performance. This includes the integration of a QSTS battery and natural gas generator model to incorporate local resource impacts to the system. The simulation study is performed with a modified IEEE 24-Bus transmission system. Scenarios are focused on evaluating the data center load impacts on the transmission system and leveraging both data center and local generation controls to mitigate those impacts and provide additional grid services. The data center controls revealed the ability to contribute to two main kinds of grid services: preventing congestion on a weak grid by coordinating the data center resources with the collocated BESS and onsite generation; and the ability to help the grid operations during stressed times of operation like during a contingency. Leveraging these and other capabilities has the potential to help data centers become grid responsive assets, aiding in both their integration into the power system and grid reliability.

power grid simulation↗

NASA NTRS1971

Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction

The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.

Kececioglu, D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2004

Topics: Optoelectronic Sensor System for Guidance in Docking; Hybrid Piezoelectric/Fiber-Optic Sensor Sheets; Multisensor Arrays for Greater Reliability and Accuracy; Integrated-Optic Oxygen Sensors; Ka-Band Autonomous Formation Flying Sensor; CMOS VLSI Active-Pixel Sensor for Tracking; Lightweight, Self-Deploying Foam Antenna Structures; Electrically Small Microstrip Quarter-Wave Monopole Antennas; A 2-to-28-MHz Phase-Locked Loop; Portable Electromyograph; Open-Source Software for Modeling of Nanoelectronic Devices; Software for Generating Strip Maps from SAR Data; Calibration Software for use with Jurassicprok; Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction; Software Processes SAR Motion-Measurement Data; Improved Method of Purifying Carbon Nanotubes; Patterned Growth of Carbon Nanotubes or Nanofibers; Lightweight, Rack-Mountable Composite Cold Plate/Shelves; SiC-Based Miniature High-Temperature Cantilever Anemometer; Inlet Housing for a Partial-Admission Turbine; Lightweight Thermoformed Structural Components and Optics; Growing High-Quality InAs Quantum Dots for Infrared Lasers; Selected Papers on Protoplanetary Disks; Module for Oxygenating Water without Generating Bubbles; Coastal Research Imaging Spectrometer; Rapid Switching and Modulation by use of Coupled VCSELs; Laser-Induced-Fluorescence Photogrammetry and Videogrammetry; Laboratory Apparatus Generates Dual-Species Cold Atomic Beam; Laser Ablation of Materials for Propulsion of Spacecraft; Small Active Radiation Monitor; Hybrid Image-Plane/Stereo Manipulation; Partitioning a Gridded Rectangle into Smaller Rectangles; Digital Radar-Signal Processors Implemented in FPGAs; Part 1 of a Computational Study of a Drop-Laden Mixing Layer; and Some Improvements in Signal-Conditioning Circuits.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Multi-Sensor Localization Information Fusion for Autonomous Urban Air Mobility Operations

An adaptive method is developed to iteratively fuse the information provided by multiple sensors to enable autonomous urban air mobility type operations. First, noisy and bias corrupted IMU readings are processed as soon as they arrive using kinematic equations represented in the vehicle's body frame. To correct the systems drift resulting from the integration, an information content measure is introduced to decide on the environment. For the cluttered environment the information provided by environmental sensors is counted as reliable and the drift correction as accurate. For the open space, the GPS data is counted as reliable, and the drift correction is done based on the GPS readings. The measurement noise effects are minimize using Iterated Extended Kalman Filter framework. The algorithm is implemented in the in-house developed FlightDeckz simulation environment using an IMU model, simulated video recorded from a camera mounted on the vehicle (for the purpose of this study, outside scenery was generated with XPlane), which flies in an urban environment, and GPS data generated from the environment's digital map.

Onboard Perception↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Development Strategy for Space Nuclear Propulsion

An integrated development strategy to realize operational nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) and nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) systems is presented. A generational development approach is employed, where each generation of a propulsion system is more capable and reliable than the previous. These systems will either enable missions that were not possible or, for missions that could be performed using other systems (including earlier generations of space nuclear systems) will improve the mission metrics, most notably greater delivered mass, reduced trip time, or longer mission endurance. Present and ongoing investments in materials development, component design and testing, and modeling and simulation lead the way in developing demonstration flight systems and expose gaps in the nation’s capabilities. Developing future generations of systems with greater utility will require additional capabilities, including those for large-scale nuclear test and evaluation.

Kurt Polzin↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

NASA NTRS1972

A study of pilot modeling in multi-controller tasks

A modeling approach, which utilizes a matrix of transfer functions to describe the human pilot in multiple input, multiple output control situations, is studied. The approach used was to extend a well established scalar Wiener-Hopf minimization technique to the matrix case and then study, via a series of experiments, the data requirements when only finite record lengths are available. One of these experiments was a two-controller roll tracking experiment designed to force the pilot to use rudder in order to coordinate and reduce the effects of aileron yaw. One model was computed for the case where the signals used to generate the spectral matrix are error and bank angle while another model was computed for the case where error and yaw angle are the inputs. Several anomalies were observed to be present in the experimental data. These are defined by the descriptive terms roll up, break up, and roll down. Due to these algorithm induced anomalies, the frequency band over which reliable estimates of power spectra can be achieved is considerably less than predicted by the sampling theorem.

Whitbeck, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Simple Cell Balance Circuit

A method has been developed for continuous cell voltage balancing for rechargeable batteries (e.g. lithium ion batteries). A resistor divider chain is provided that generates a set of voltages representing the ideal cell voltage (the voltage of each cell should be as if the cells were perfectly balanced). An operational amplifier circuit with an added current buffer stage generates the ideal voltage with a very high degree of accuracy, using the concept of negative feedback. The ideal voltages are each connected to the corresponding cell through a current- limiting resistance. Over time, having the cell connected to the ideal voltage provides a balancing current that moves the cell voltage very close to that ideal level. In effect, it adjusts the current of each cell during charging, discharging, and standby periods to force the cell voltages to be equal to the ideal voltages generated by the resistor divider. The device also includes solid-state switches that disconnect the circuit from the battery so that it will not discharge the battery during storage. This solution requires relatively few parts and is, therefore, of lower cost and of increased reliability due to the fewer failure modes. Additionally, this design uses very little power. A preliminary model predicts a power usage of 0.18 W for an 8-cell battery. This approach is applicable to a wide range of battery capacities and voltages.

Johnson, Steven D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-Based Investigation of Multi-Fault Interactions and Performance Degradation in Residential Heat Pump Systems

Faults in heat pump systems can significantly degrade performance, reduce efficiency, and accelerate component wear, leading to higher operating costs and maintenance demands. While numerous studies have investigated the impact of individual faults, the interactions between multiple concurrent faults remain insufficiently understood, despite their common occurrence in real-world operation. This study conducts a comprehensive simulation analysis of multiple simultaneous faults in a vapor compression heat pump using a validated heat pump design model (HPDM) tool. Detailed component-level modeling methods are implemented to examine performance sensitivity under combinations of refrigerant flow and heat exchanger faults. The results reveal complex fault interactions that can mask or amplify system deviations, challenging conventional diagnostic approaches. Findings from this work provide meaningful insights for the development of more robust fault detection and diagnosis algorithms, supporting improved reliability and energy efficiency in next-generation heat pump technologies.

Hu, Yifeng [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242875185)↗

NASA NTRS1998

Dynamic Models of Instruments Using Rotating Unbalanced Masses

The motion of telescopes, satellites, and other flight bodies have been controlled by various means in the past. For example, gimbal mounted devices can use electric motors to produce pointing and scanning motions. Reaction wheels, control moment gyros, and propellant-charged reaction jets are other technologies that have also been used. Each of these methods has its advantages, but all actuator systems used in a flight environment face the challenges of minimizing weight, reducing energy consumption, and maximizing reliability. Recently, Polites invented and patented the Rotating Unbalanced Mass (RUM) device as a means for generation scanning motion on flight experiments. RUM devices together with traditional servomechanisms have been successfully used to generate various scanning motions: linear, raster, and circular. The basic principle can be described: A RUM rotating at constant angular velocity exerts a cyclic centrifugal force on the instrument or main body, thus producing a periodic scanning motion. A system of RUM devices exerts no reaction forces on the main body, requires very little energy to rotate the RUMS, and is simple to construct. These are significant advantages over electric motors, reaction wheels, and control moment gyroscopes. Although the RUM device very easily produces scanning motion, an auxiliary control system has been required to maintain the proper orientation, or pointing of the main body. It has been suggested that RUM devices can be used to control pointing dynamics, as well as generate the desired periodic scanning motion. The idea is that the RUM velocity will not be kept constant, but will vary over the period of one RUM rotation. The thought is that the changing angular velocity produces a centrifugal force having time-varying magnitude and direction. The scope of this ongoing research project is to study the pointing control concept, and recommend a direction of study for advanced pointing control using only RUM devices. This report is subdivided into three sections. Three dynamic models and one proposed control principle are described first. Then, the results of model analyses and some experiments are discussed. Finally, suggestions for future work are presented.

Hung, John Y.↗