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DOE OSTI2018

THE ROLE OF MATERIAL MODELING ON STRAIN RANGE ESTIMATION FOR ELEVATED TEMPERATURE CYCLIC LIFE EVALUATION

High temperature nuclear reactors operating in the creep regime are designed to withstand numerous cyclic events. Current ASME code rules provide two basic paths for evaluating creep fatigue and ratcheting under these conditions; one based on full inelastic analysis intended to provide a representative stress and strain history and the other based on elastic material models with adjustments of varying complexity to account for inelastic stress and strain redistribution. More recent developments have used elastic-perfectly plastic analysis to bound the effects of cyclic service. However, these methods still rely on the separate evaluation of fatigue and creep damage utilizing a damage interaction diagram. There is a procedure under current development that uses creep-fatigue data from key feature test articles directly without the use of the damage interaction diagram. However, it requires a reasonable representation of the strain range in a structure as an input. This work develops a simplified procedure based on elastic perfectly-plasticity analysis that can be used to represent the strain range in a structure in the steady state under cyclic loading conditions.

Messner, Mark C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental and fuel-surrogates modeling study of the high-pressure pyrolysis of specialty cetane number fuels: implications for fall-off in ethylene unimolecular dissociation

Single pulse shock tube experiments were conducted at 50 atm nominal pressure and 4 ms nominal reaction time over a temperature range of 900–1800 K, to study the pyrolysis speciation of a multi-component jet fuel, F-24, and six cetane number (CN) specialty fuels - CN30, CN35, CN40, CN45, CN50, and CN55. Gas chromatography (GC) was used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the post shock gases. The relationship between the formation of key pyrolysis species and the chemically controlled combustion propensity as reflected by the cetane number of each fuel was examined. A surrogate-based mechanism from the CRECK Modelling Group and chemical-functional group based optimized surrogates (CFGO) were used to simulate the pyrolysis speciation results. The model was able to capture the chemistry of most species except two important pyrolysis intermediates – ethylene and acetylene. Chemical kinetic analyses were performed to identify the important reactions which affect the chemistry of these species; however, the rate parameters of critical reactions were found to be unsuitable for simulating the present high-pressure studies. Here, to address this unsuitability, a theory-based fall-off analysis for three reactions representing the decomposition of ethylene and subsequent formation of acetylene was performed, and these are included in an updated version of the CRECK mechanism. This update resolves discrepancies between the experimental results and simulations for ethylene and acetylene. Reaction flux analyses using the updated surrogate model were also performed to identify the important reaction pathways responsible for the formation of crucial species and to provide an analysis of the chemistry of complex multi-component fuel systems. The fundamental reactions responsible for driving pyrolysis chemistry were greatly influenced by the chemical functional groups present in these fuels. In addition to updating the rate parameters of specific reactions to improve modeling, this study also emphasizes the effectiveness of the fuel-surrogate approach, where surrogates representing the chemical functional group composition of the parent fuel serve as a valuable tool for predicting the combustion chemistry of novel fuels.

Chemical Kinetics↗

DOE OSTI2018

U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Air Conditioning Fuel Use and Impact of Solar/Thermal Control Technologies

To reduce fuel consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from mobile air conditioning (A/C) systems, 'U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards' identified solar/thermal technologies such as solar control glazings, solar reflective paint, and active and passive cabin ventilation in an off-cycle credit menu. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers developed a sophisticated analysis process to calculate U.S. light-duty A/C fuel use that was used to assess the impact of these technologies, leveraging thermal and vehicle simulation analysis tools developed under previous U.S. Department of Energy projects. Representative U.S. light-duty driving behaviors and weighting factors including time-of-day of travel, trip duration, and time between trips were characterized and integrated into the analysis. In addition, U.S. weather conditions weighted based on light-duty vehicle registrations were generated and used for the analysis. Three representative vehicle types for the light-duty fleet were selected based on registration data containing vehicle size information. These key inputs were used to support a weighted parametric analysis that quantified vehicle thermal load, vehicle accessory load, and vehicle fuel use. This analysis estimates that 7.6 billion gallons of fuel a year are used in the United States for vehicle A/C, equivalent to 6.1% of the total national light-duty vehicle fuel use. This equates to 30.0 gallons/year per vehicle or 23.5 grams CO 2 per mile (g/mi) for an average U.S. light-duty vehicle. A/C is a significant contributor to national fuel use; therefore, technologies that reduce A/C loads have an opportunity to reduce fuel consumption, reduce imported oil, and improve energy security. Implementing solar control glass reduced the CO 2 emissions by 2.0 g/mi and the reduction due to solar reflective paint was 0.8 g/mi. The active and passive ventilation strategies as defined in this analysis only reduced emissions by 0.1 and 0.2 g/mi, respectively. This analysis shows the potential to reduce operational costs, A/C fuel use, and CO 2 emissions by implementing advanced vehicle climate control technologies including the solar/thermal technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Autonomous Aerobraking: Thermal Analysis and Response Surface Development

A high-fidelity thermal model of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter was developed for use in an autonomous aerobraking simulation study. Response surface equations were derived from the high-fidelity thermal model and integrated into the autonomous aerobraking simulation software. The high-fidelity thermal model was developed using the Thermal Desktop software and used in all phases of the analysis. The use of Thermal Desktop exclusively, represented a change from previously developed aerobraking thermal analysis methodologies. Comparisons were made between the Thermal Desktop solutions and those developed for the previous aerobraking thermal analyses performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter during aerobraking operations. A variable sensitivity screening study was performed to reduce the number of variables carried in the response surface equations. Thermal analysis and response surface equation development were performed for autonomous aerobraking missions at Mars and Venus.

Dec, John A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Correlation Analysis Of Vibration Data From Rotary Pumps

Correlation technique represents vibration data from rotary pumps in compact form convenient for storage in data base. Analysis determines coefficients of Fourier series representing typical response of pump for one revolution of pump shaft. Changes in harmonic spectrum of pump indicates changes in performance caused by internal wear, rubbing of seals, and the like.

Fenwick, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A field measure of the shade fraction

'Shade' has a technical definition peculiar to linear spectral mixture analysis of imaging spectrometer data: it is the reduction in radiance from a surface due to lighting conditions and geometry, and includes topographic shading described by photometric functions as well as shadowing at all scales. 'Shade' is an important constituent of nearly all remotely sensed images, and is one endmember resolved in spectral mixture analysis, where it is represented as a fraction of the measured radiance and a characteristic spectrum. This spectrum is typically the null vector, provided the data have been corrected for atmospheric and instrument effects: i.e., 'shade' is the radiance from an ideal black surface. In topographic shading, irradiance is reduced - typically in proportion to cos(i), where i (incidence angle) is the angle between the sun and the local surface normal vectors. Therefore, the radiance is lowered by a multiplicative factor. Shadowing occurs when i is greater than 90 deg, or when sunlight is blocked by adjacent high terrain; the only irradiance is down-welling skylight and bounce light from adjacent terrain. In spectral mixture analysis, 'shade' is regarded as an additive term. In this regard, it is an accurate description of the proportion of a scene that consists of ideal shadows ('checkerboard mixing'); however, 'shade' represents the multiplicative cos(i) factor as well, as here it should be interpreted as the proportion of shadow that would darken the scene an equivalent amount. In either case, the 'shade' fraction is lessened by adjacency effects, because the scene has a non-zero reflectivity instead of the ideal black surface generally assumed.

Gillespie, Alan R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Involute Working Group – FSI Analysis of Fuel Plates Using Finite Volume and Finite Element Methods

The three involute plate research reactors RHF, HFIR, and FRM II have expressed an interest in using computational software to carry their steady-state safety analysis. Since these tools represent a significant departure from the methods used currently (one-dimensional), the acceptability of the new approach by regulators requires thorough verification and validation of these tools. Therefore, Argonne National Laboratory and the three involute-plate reactors formed an informal group called the Involute Working Group aiming at qualifying computational tools to perform steady-state safety analysis. The present report focuses on a comparison of finite volume and finite element methods to model solids in fluid-structure interaction problems with the goal to estimate the coolant flow-induced fuel plate deflections obtained with the two methods. The finite volume method will be obsoleted in STARCCM+ by the end of 2021, nevertheless, this evaluation is important because the method was used by ANL researchers to model the response of the fuel plates, despite its drawbacks, which are discussed in the report. It was essential to check how those estimates compare to the results obtained with the finite element method that is considered superior for structural analysis. Various geometries, i.e., flat, cylindrical and circle-involute fuel plates, as well as coolant flow speed, were considered. The comparison shows that, independently of the plate geometry, the finite volume method significantly underestimates the deflection as compared to finite element method for coarser meshes. When the discretization is developed as a result of a mesh sensitivity study using finite element method, the result obtained using finite volume method can be a few times smaller than the corresponding finite element method solution. A code-to-code comparison , between STAR-CCM+ and LS-DYNA was included in the analysis. Within the LS-DYNA models, two types of finite element formulations were used: solid and shell finite elements. Mesh sensitivity study showed that both approaches converge to a similar value that was obtained with STAR-CCM+ finite element solver. The evaluation of the computational solvers was extended by adding two benchmark cases from the STAR-CCM+ Verification Suite and presented in the Appendix A. The selected cases are: (1) bending of a cantilever beam under external load, and (2) cylindrical shell deformation analysis, known in the literature as ‘Scordelis-Lo roof’. The problems were solved with finite volume, and finite element methods, and the results confirmed the previously discussed findings. The analysis shows that the finite element solver is superior to the finite volume solver in terms of representation of model geometry and estimating the structural behavior of fuel plates. Depending on the ratio of the load to the flexibility of the plate, the finite volume solver can greatly under- or overestimate the structural response if a very carefully selected mesh is not used.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Integrated analytical method to demonstrate 10 CFR 50.46c compliance

Large break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) evaluation models (EMs) have historically been focused on fresh fuel at or near beginning-of-life in water cooled reactors. However, these evaluation models did not account for fuel thermal conductivity degradation (TCD). With the explicit modeling of fuel TCD, it is possible that the limiting LOCA conditions could occur for higher burnup fuel. NRC-sponsored research conducted by ANL as part of the 10 CFR 50.46c rulemaking identified mechanisms for cladding embrittlement that exist in higher burnup fuel which were not previously well understood. Additionally, the explicit consideration of fuel pellet thermal conductivity degradation results in more severe fuel rod / assembly considerations for higher burnup fuel in the large break LOCA scenario. In aggregate, these embrittlement mechanisms and phenomena necessitate the consideration of all fuel in the core which undergoes a postulated LOCA, as the limiting fuel cannot be determined a priori for each of the analysis acceptance criteria. The Full Spectrum LOCA EM accounts for all assemblies in the core at the time of a postulated LOCA by defining representative hot assemblies which combine the limiting elements of the fuel assemblies which they represent. By doing so, it is ensured that the LOCA analysis result represents the more limiting assembly in the core for each criterion. Changes in the LOCA boundary conditions (fuel rod initialization, axial power distributions, etc.) that occur during a cycle of operation are also appropriately accounted for in the FSLOCA EM by integrating fuel rod design and nuclear design methods into the LOCA EM. As such, the FSLOCA EM is well-positioned to show compliance with the 10 CFR 50.46c rulemaking as the rule package is nearing completion.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

MATBOX, an Open-Source Microstructure Analysis Toolbox for Meshing, Generation, Segmentation, and Characterization of 3D Heterogenous Volumes

Battery performance is strongly correlated with electrode microstructural properties. To account for its impact, lithium-ion battery (LIB) models either abstract the microstructural heterogeneity of composite electrodes using effective macroscopic properties (macro- or meso- scale models) or directly solve the system of equations on the microstructure geometry or mesh (microstructure-scale models). Therefore, to be adequate, both families of models require information from the microstructure geometry, which can be provided by the numerical tool presented in this work. MATBOX is a MATLAB open-source application [1] developed by NREL for performing various microstructure-related tasks including microstructure numerical generation, image filtering and microstructure segmentation, microstructure characterization and correlation, visualization, and microstructure meshing. MATBOX was originally developed for the analysis of LIB electrode microstructures; however, the algorithms provided by the toolbox are widely applicable to other heterogeneous materials. The toolbox provides a user-friendly experience thanks to a Graphical-User Interface, requires no coding by the user, and is well documented. This presentation will illustrate various MATBOX features for the characterization of a LIB electrode, including a fully automated Representative Volume Element (RVE) analysis, the numerical generation of complex 'virtual' microstructure, including dual-layer electrodes and carbon-binder additive phase, and the meshing of a complex NMC/graphite full cell microstructure suitable for 3D finite-element modeling. Other modules (segmentation, visualization, and correlation) will be briefly presented. Thanks to its modular, open-source approach, MATBOX can easily incorporate third-party algorithms to eventually build a standard in the field that will benefit the whole scientific community. Effective diffusion coefficient [2], additive phase numerical generation [3], and meshing [4] third-party algorithms have been already integrated in the toolbox with more to come.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Chandra and very large array observations of the nearby Sd galaxy NGC 45

We present an analysis of high angular resolution observations made in the X-ray and the radio with the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the Karl Jansky Very Large Array (VLA), respectively, of the nearby spiral galaxy NGC 45. This galaxy is the third that we have considered in a study of the supernova remnant (SNR) populations of nearby spiral galaxies and the present work represents the first detailed analysis of the discrete X-ray and radio source populations of this galaxy. We analyzed data sets from the three pointed observations made of this galaxy with Chandra along with a merged data set obtained from combining these data sets: the total effective exposure time of the merged data set is 63515 s. A total of 25 discrete X-ray sources are found in the entire field of view of the ACIS-S3 chip, with 16 sources found within the visual extent of the galaxy. We estimate that as many as half of the sources detected in the entire field of view of the ACIS-S3 chip and seven of the sources detected in the optical extent of NGC 45 may be background sources. We analyzed the spectral properties of the discrete X-ray sources within the galaxy and conclude that the majority of these sources are X-ray binaries. We have searched for counterparts at different wavelengths to the discrete X-ray sources and we find two associations: one with a star cluster and the other with a background galaxy. We have found one source that is clearly variable within one observation and seven that are seen to vary from one observation to another. We also conduct a photometric analysis to determine the near-infrared fluxes of the discrete X-ray sources in Spitzer Infrared Array Camera channels. We constructed a cumulative luminosity function of the discrete X-ray sources seen toward NGC 45: taking into account simultaneously the luminosity function of background sources, the fitted slope of the cumulative luminosity function Γ = –1.3{sub −1.6}{sup +0.7} (all error bounds correspond to 90% confidence intervals). The VLA observations reveal seven discrete radio sources: we find no overlaps between these sources and the X-ray detected sources. Based on their measured spectral indices and their locations with respect to the visible extent of NGC 45, we classify one source as a candidate radio SNR associated with the galaxy and the others as likely background galaxies seen in projection toward NGC 45. Finally, we discuss the properties of a background cluster of galaxies (denoted as CXOU J001354.2–231254.7) seen in projection toward NGC 45 and detected by the Chandra observations. The fit parameters to the extracted Chandra spectra of this cluster are a column density N{sub H} = 0.07(<0.14) × 10{sup 22} cm{sup −2}, a temperature kT = 4.22{sub −1.42}{sup +2.08} keV, an abundance Z = 0.30(<0.75) relative to solar and a redshift z = 0.28 ± 0.14. From the fit parameters we derive an electron number density n{sub e} = 4(±1) × 10{sup −3} cm{sup −3}, an unabsorbed X-ray luminosity L{sub 0.5−7.0 keV} ∼ 8.77(±0.96) × 10{sup 43} erg s{sup −1} for the cluster and an X-ray emitting mass M = 2.32(±1.75) × 10{sup 12} M{sub ⊙}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

HVI Ballistic Performance Characterization of Non-Parallel Walls

The Double-Wall, "Whipple" Shield [1] has been the subject of many hypervelocity impact studies and has proven to be an effective shield system for Micro-Meteoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) impacts for spacecraft. The US modules of the International Space Station (ISS), with their "bumper shields" offset from their pressure holding rear walls provide good examples of effective on-orbit use of the double wall shield. The concentric cylinder shield configuration with its large radius of curvature relative to separation distance is easily and effectively represented for testing and analysis as a system of two parallel plates. The parallel plate double wall configuration has been heavily tested and characterized for shield performance for normal and oblique impacts for the ISS and other programs. The double wall shield and principally similar Stuffed Whipple Shield are very common shield types for MMOD protection. However, in some locations with many spacecraft designs, the rear wall cannot be modeled as being parallel or concentric with the outer bumper wall. As represented in Figure 1, there is an included angle between the two walls. And, with a cylindrical outer wall, the effective included angle constantly changes. This complicates assessment of critical spacecraft components located within outer spacecraft walls when using software tools such as NASA's BumperII. In addition, the validity of the risk assessment comes into question when using the standard double wall shield equations, especially since verification testing of every set of double wall included angles is impossible.

Bohl, William↗

NASA NTRS1969

Analysis of a Multiprocessor Guidance Computer

The design of the next generation of spaceborne digital computers is described. It analyzes a possible multiprocessor computer configuration. For the analysis, a set of representative space computing tasks was abstracted from the Lunar Module Guidance Computer programs as executed during the lunar landing, from the Apollo program. This computer performs at this time about 24 concurrent functions, with iteration rates from 10 times per second to once every two seconds. These jobs were tabulated in a machine-independent form, and statistics of the overall job set were obtained. It was concluded, based on a comparison of simulation and Markov results, that the Markov process analysis is accurate in predicting overall trends and in configuration comparisons, but does not provide useful detailed information in specific situations. Using both types of analysis, it was determined that the job scheduling function is a critical one for efficiency of the multiprocessor. It is recommended that research into the area of automatic job scheduling be performed.

Maltach, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS2001

User's Manual and Final Report for Hot-SMAC GUI Development

A new software package called Higher Order Theory-Structural/Micro Analysis Code (HOT-SMAC) has been developed as an effective alternative to the finite element approach for Functionally Graded Material (FGM) modeling. HOT-SMAC is a self-contained package including pre- and post-processing through an intuitive graphical user interface, along with the well-established Higher Order Theory for Functionally Graded Materials (HOTFGM) thermomechanical analysis engine. This document represents a Getting Started/User's Manual for HOT-SMAC and a final report for its development. First, the features of the software are presented in a simple step-by-step example where a HOT-SMAC model representing a functionally graded material is created, mechanical and thermal boundary conditions are applied, the model is analyzed and results are reviewed. In a second step-by-step example, a HOT-SMAC model of an actively cooled metallic channel with ceramic thermal barrier coating is built and analyzed. HOT-SMAC results from this model are compared to recently published results (NASA/TM-2001-210702) for two grid densities. Finally, a prototype integration of HOTSMAC with the commercially available HyperSizer(R) structural analysis and sizing software is presented. In this integration, local strain results from HyperSizer's structural analysis are fed to a detailed HOT-SMAC model of the flange-to-facesheet bond region of a stiffened panel. HOT-SMAC is then used to determine the peak shear and peel (normal) stresses between the facesheet and bonded flange of the panel and determine the "free edge" effects.

Yarrington, Phil↗

DOE OSTI2021

A New Subfamily of Glycoside Hydrolase Family 30 with Strict Xylobiohydrolase Function

The Acetivibrioclariflavus (basonym: Clostridium clariflavum) glycoside hydrolase family 30 cellulosomal protein encoded by the Clocl_1795 gene was highly represented during growth on cellulosic substrates. In this report, the recombinantly expressed protein has been characterized and shown to be a non-reducing terminal (NRT)-specific xylobiohydrolase (AcXbh30A). Biochemical function, optimal biophysical parameters, and phylogeny were investigated. The findings indicate that AcXbh30A strictly cleaves xylobiose from the NRT up until an α-1,2-linked glucuronic acid (GA)-decorated xylose if the number of xyloses is even or otherwise a single xylose will remain resulting in a penultimate GA-substituted xylose. Unlike recently reported xylobiohydrolases, AcXbh30A has no other detectable hydrolysis products under our optimized reaction conditions. Sequence analysis indicates that AcXbh30A represents a new GH30 subfamily. This new xylobiohydrolase may be useful for commercial production of industrial quantities of xylobiose.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Potential Cybersecurity Issues of Fast Charging Stations with Quantitative Severity Analysis

Potential issues of front-end converters of wireless power transfer system modules for extreme fast charging are discussed and analyzed in this study in order to provide some recommendations to defend against attacks on electric vehicles and charging systems. Compared to conventional low-power charging systems, the impact of a cyber-attack might be more detrimental in high-power / fast charging systems since the fault energy levels would be inherently higher both on the grid- and vehicle- side converters. In order to analyze the potential issues that might be a result of cyber-attacks, the negative scenarios are reviewed in this study which include interfering with the grid-side controllers, establishing fake communications between the vehicles and the charging stations, and interfering with the battery management system functionalities. A 100-kW stationary wireless power transfer system with a series-series resonant compensation network is used as a representative system in the analysis. Potential damages and the fault energy levels for selected fault scenarios are investigated. The system is simulated to verify the analysis results. On the basis of the discussed worst-case study, a set of hardware design-level solutions are recommended in this study to provide cyber protection.

Park, Yongwan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Rating of a Pitch Bearing for a 1.5-Megawatt Wind Turbine

Slew ring or "pitch" bearings are used in wind turbines to connect the blade root to the hub. They support the resulting simultaneous radial, axial, and overturning moment loads while allowing relative rotation of the blade with respect to the hub. NREL has recently begun a research program related to pitch bearing reliability, recognizing its growing importance for wind turbines. The purpose of this first paper is to describe the rating analysis for a reference pitch bearing representative of that used a 1.5-megawatt (MW) wind turbine. The analysis will serve as a baseline for future finite-element analyses and strain and deflection measurements of an installed pitch bearing. If successful, this work will enable the design and specification of more reliable pitch bearings, a key concern in the long-term operation of land-based wind turbines and new development of offshore wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Potosi Reservoir Modeling; History and Recommendations

As a part of a larger project co-funded by the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) to evaluate the potential of formations within the Cambro-Ordovician strata above the Mt. Simon as potential targets for carbon sequestration in the Illinois and Michigan Basins, the Illinois Clean Coal Institute (ICCI) requested Schlumberger to evaluate the potential injectivity and carbon dioxide (CO₂) plume size of the Cambrian Potosi Formation. The evaluation of this formation was accomplished using wireline data, core data, pressure data, and seismic data from two projects: the US DOE-funded Illinois Basin–Decatur Project being conducted by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium in Macon County, Illinois, as well as data from the Illinois – Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration (IL-ICCS) project funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In 2010, technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the Verification Well 1 (VW1) and the Injection Well (CCS1), structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for the Potosi Formation. The intention was for two million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of CO₂ to be injected for 20 years into the Potosi Formation. In 2013, updated reservoir models for the Cambrian Potosi Formation were evaluated. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the CCS1, VW1, and Verification Well 2 (VW2) wells, structural and stratigraphic formation from a larger 3D seismic survey, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. The objective is to simulate the injection of CO₂ at a rate 3.5 million tons per annum (3.2 million tonnes per annum [MTPA]) for 30 years 106 million tons (96 MT total) into the Potosi Formation. The Potosi geomodeling efforts have evolved from using data from a single well in 2010 to the inclusion of data from three wells in 2013 which largely leverage the porosity and permeability logs plus knowledge of lost circulation zones. The first Potosi model (Potosi Geobody Model 2010) attempted to use the available seismic inversion data to inform the geomodel and predict vugular zones in advance of drilling VW1. Lost circulation zones in VW1 came in as the geologists predicted. The model was not implemented in subsequent simulation work. To date, reservoir models used for flow simulation work have relied predominately on Gaussian distributed properties (porosity and permeability) and have employed a single injection well. Potosi Model 2013b incorporated the new VW2 logs, and exhibited an extra level of sophistication by delineating the vugular intervals. This method added further realism that likely represents the best reservoir approximation to date. Where the 2010 reservoir models were 10 by 10 mi (16 by 16 km) in area, the 2013 models were expanded in size to 30 by 30 mi (48 by 48 km). The latest reservoir simulations show that a minimum of four injectors might be required to meet target injection rates. Still, there is data that requires further scrutiny and modeling methodologies that require testing for the Potosi Formation. This work is currently ongoing, and the next phase of the reservoir modeling intends to implement valuable data like porosity derived from seismic inversion, seismically derived geobodies, or a combination of both to further define vugular zones and the porosity distribution within the Potosi Formation. Understanding the dual porosity, dual permeability character of the Potosi remains the greatest challenge in representing this formation. Further analysis of the FMI* fullbore formation microimager data may aid in assessing this uncertainty. The Potosi Formation is indeed an interesting formation, and recommendations to further characterize it are included in the following list: - Data acquisition to identify the vugs permeability, distribution, and interconnectivity could be considered to perform a more rigorous evaluation of the Potosi Formation injectivity and capacity. This could be achieved by performing an injection test on a vugular interval to determine the vugs permeability, and an interference test between wells to evaluate the local vugs extent and interconnectivity. - A thorough study of the available FMI data may reveal specifics on estimating the vug to matrix ratio. This estimate could be used to further condition the porosity distribution. Porosity logs alone might underestimate the formation’s porosity associated with vugs. Porosity mapping derived from the seismic inversion could also be used in the succeeding task to characterize the lateral porosity distribution within the reservoir. This could involve the geobody methodology previously attempted in 2010. With or without seismic inversion porosity mapping, it is worth exploring whether increased lateral heterogeneity plays a significant role in Potosi injectivity. Investigations on vugular, dolomitic outcrops suggest that there may be significantly greater lateral heterogeneity than what has been modeled here. - The FMI data also reveals the presence of and helps describe open fractures. The presence of fractures will further enhance the formation’s permeability. The task of leveraging this data in the geomodeling effort still remains. Under the best of circumstances, this data describing open fractures may be combined with seismic attributes to delineate fracture corridors. Fracture modeling would certainly add another layer of sophistication to the model. Its contribution and applicability remain to be explored. - Facies modeling within the Potosi has yet to be thoroughly addressed. The carbonates during the time of deposition are believed to be regionally extensive. However, it may be worth delineating the reservoir with other regional wells or modern day analogues to understand the extent of the Potosi. More specifically, the model could incorporate lateral changes or trends if deemed necessary to represent facies transition. - Currently there is no fracture gradient data available for the Potosi in the Decatur project area. The acquisition of the fracture pressure data could be considered to determine an appropriate maximum allowable bottomhole injection pressure. This would allow the evaluation of injectivity and the required number of wells in a more precise manner. - Special core analysis (SCAL) to determine the relative permeability and capillary pressure of the vugs and matrix could be considered to have a better estimation of the reservoir injectivity and plume extent. - Formation water sampling and analysis could be considered for the Potosi to estimate the water salinity and properties. A vertical flow performance evaluation could be considered for the succeeding task to determine the appropriate tubing size, the required injection tubing head pressure, and to investigate whether the corresponding well injection rate falls within the tubing erosional velocity limit. - A simulation using several injectors could also be considered to determine the required number of wells to achieve the injection target while taking into account the pressure interference.

Smith, Valerie↗

DOE OSTI2018

What Limits Predictive Certainty of Long-Term Carbon Uptake?

Terrestrial biosphere models can help identify physical processes that control carbon dynamics, including land-atmosphere CO 2 fluxes, and have the potential to project the terrestrial ecosystem response to changing climate. It is important to identify ecosystem processes most responsible for model predictive uncertainty and design improved model representation and observational system studies to reduce that uncertainty. Here we identified model parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to long-term (~100 years) projections of net ecosystem exchange, net primary production, and aboveground biomass within a mechanistic terrestrial biosphere model (Ecosystem Demography, version 2.1) ED2. An uncertainty analysis identified parameters that represent the quantum efficiency of light to photosynthetic conversion, leaf respiration and soil-plant water transfer as the highest contributors to model uncertainty regardless of time frame (annual, decadal, and centennial) and output (e.g., net ecosystem exchange, net primary production, aboveground biomass). Contrary to expectations, the contribution of successional processes related to reproduction, competition, and mortality did not increase as the time scale increased. These findings suggest that uncertainty in the parameters governing short-term ecosystem processes remains the most significant bottleneck to reducing predictive uncertainty. Key actions to reduce parameter uncertainty include more leaf-level trait measurements across multiple sites for quantum efficiency and leaf respiration rate. Further, the empirical representation of soil-plant water transfer should be replaced with a mechanistic, hydraulic representation of water flow, which can be constrained with direct measurements. This analysis focused on aboveground ecosystem processes. The impact of belowground carbon cycling, initial conditions, and meteorological forcing should be addressed in future studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗