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NASA NTRS2017

Management by Trajectory Trade Study of Roles and Responsibilities Between Participants and Automation Report

This report describes a trade study of roles and responsibilities associated with the Management by Trajectory (MBT) concept. The MBT concept describes roles, responsibilities, and information and automation requirements for providing air traffic controllers and managers the ability to quickly generate, evaluate and implement changes to an aircraft's trajectory. In addition, the MBT concept describes mechanisms for imposing constraints on flight operator preferred trajectories only to the extent necessary to maintain safe and efficient traffic flows, and the concept provides a method for the exchange of trajectory information between ground automation systems and the aircraft that allows for trajectory synchronization and trajectory negotiation. The participant roles considered in this trade study include: airline dispatcher, flight crew, radar controller, traffic manager, and Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) traffic management specialists. The proposed allocation of roles and responsibilities was based on analysis of several use cases that were developed for this purpose as well as for walking through concept elements. The resulting allocation of roles and responsibilities reflects both increased automation capability to support many aviation functions, as well as increased flexibility to assign responsibilities to different participants - in many cases afforded by the increased automation capabilities. Note that the selection of participants to consider for allocation of each function is necessarily rooted in the current environment, in that MBT is envisioned as an evolution of the National Airspace System (NAS), and not a revolution. A key feature of the MBT allocations is a vision for the traffic management specialist to take on a greater role. This is facilitated by the vision that separation management functions, in addition to traffic management functions, will be carried out as trajectory management functions. This creates an opportunity for flexibility, allowing the traffic management specialist to carry out tasks that today can only be carried out by the controller currently in contact with the aircraft. This additional tasking for the traffic management specialist comes with requirements for workload management. An increased role for the Data-side (D-side) controller relative to the Radar-side (R-side) controller is a potential approach to mitigating workload for the traffic management specialist, as the D-side controller would have similar ability to perform separation management functions in what today might be considered the "trajectory management" timeframe. This analysis did not distinguish between the D-side and R-side controllers since in many cases the R-side controller works unassisted.

Fernandes, Alicia D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Review and Comparison of Mouse and Rat Responses to Micro Gravity, Hyper Gravity and Simulated Models of Partial Gravity; Species Differences, Gaps in the Available Data, and Consideration of the Advantages and Caveats of Each Model for Spaceflight

Laboratory strains of mice and rat are widely used to study mammalian responses to stimulus, and both have been studied under a variety of gravity conditions, including space flight. We compared results obtained from exposure to spaceflight and microgravity, hyper gravity via centrifugation, earth gravity, and models of simulated partial gravity (hind-limb unloading and partial weight bearing treatments). We examined the reported changes in survival, body mass, circadian rhythm (body temperature and activity levels), behavior, bone, muscle, immune, cardio-vasculature, vestibular, reproduction and neonate survival, microbiome, and the visual system. Not all categories have published data for both species, some have limited data, and there are variations in experiment design that allow for only relative comparisons to be considered. The data reveal species differences in both the level of gravity required to obtain a response, degree of response, and in temporal expression of responses. Examination of the data across the gravity levels allows consideration of the hypothesis that gravitational responses follow a continuum, and organ specific differences are noted. In summary, we present advantages and caveats of each model system as pertains to gravitational biology research and identify gaps in our knowledge of how these mammals respond to gravity.

mouse rat gravity↗
NASA NTRS2018

UTM and D-NET: NASA and JAXA's Collaborative Research on Integrating Small UAS with Disaster Response Efforts

Natural disasters, such as flooding, wildfire, hurricane, tornadoes, earthquakes and tsunamis, pose challenges in preserving human life and minimizing the damages to a region. During catastrophic events, timely response of disaster relief personnel, an efficient deployment of resources in the recovery effort, and coordinated information sharing amongst different relief agencies can make a substantial difference in responding to those impacted by the disaster. Many relief activities currently utilize both ground personnel and manned airborne assets during different phases of the disaster response. Typically, multiple organizations support relief activities and this often creates logistics coordination challenges between agencies which can result in wasted time or resources. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been developing an "Integrated aircraft operation system for disaster relief (D-NET)", which assists collection and sharing of disaster information through the integrated operation of aircraft such as helicopters, aircraft, and satellites, for efficient and safe rescue operations by disaster relief aircraft. Due to the advancement in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) technologies, public safety organizations have started incorporating small UAS (sUAS) as an asset in their disasters response activities. To address the airspace integration challenges of the influx of sUAS in the United States the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), under the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project, has been engaged in research to enable large-scale commercial applications of sUAS operating in low altitude airspace. This paper presents the integration of D-NET, which incorporate sUAS in the planning, information sharing, and operation support of disasters response activities, and UTM, which provides airspace management to enable large scale high density operations. The integration of the DNET and UTM systems enables coordination, data sharing, and airspace management to improve the timeliness of the disaster response, enable relief organization to reduce cost and overhead by using UAS assets and still maintain airspace safety during the relief activities.

UTM↗
NASA NTRS2018

Combustion Stability Evaluation of Artificial Disturbance Dynamic Response

General guidelines are provided in CPIA Publication 6551 for evaluation of the response due to an artificial disturbance, however the guideline also allows for ambiguous interpretation. Stability rating devices that produce an artificial disturbance are traditionally explosive bombs and pulse guns. This paper reviews a recently developed objective process that can be applied consistently in the reduction of artificial disturbance dynamic data. It also examines three methods of response evaluation. The first method examines the response of a specific mode of interest and requires data filtering encompassing that mode. The second method examines the response of a specific mode of interest and its nonlinear components and requires a more complex filtering scheme. The third method examines the response of the entire dynamic system and consists of examining a wide bandwidth consisting of multiple modes of interest. The evaluation process is described and the advantages and disadvantages of the evaluation methods are discussed. Signal processing is used as a tool in quantifying the assessment, clearly as an improvement from the subjective heritage approach consisting primarily of engineering judgement. Data for several engines and components have been compiled and evaluated using these methods. A summary of these combustion devices is provided and observations are discussed.

Casiano, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Attentional Modulation of Eye Torsion Responses

Eye movements generally have both reflexive and voluntary aspects, but torsional eye movements are usually thought of as a reflexive response to image rotation around the line of sight (torsional OKN) or to head roll (torsional VOR). In this study we asked whether torsional responses could be modulated by attention in a case where two stimuli rotated independently, and whether attention would influence the latency of responses. The display consisted of rear-projected radial pinwheel gratings, with an inner annulus segment extending from the center to 22 degrees eccentricity, and an outer annulus segment extending from 22 degrees out to 45 degrees eccentricity. The two segments rotated around the center in independent random walks, stepping randomly 4 degrees clockwise or counterclockwise at 60 Hz. Subjects were asked to attend to one or the other while keeping fixation steady at the center of the display. To encourage attention on one or the other segment of the display, subjects were asked to move a joystick in synchrony with the back and forth rotations of one part of the image while ignoring the other. Eye torsion was recorded with the scleral search coil technique, sampled at 500 Hz. All four subjects showed roughly 50 stronger torsion responses to the attended compared to unattended segments. Latency varied from 100 to 150 msec across subjects and was unchanged by attention. These findings suggest that attention can influence eye movement responses that are not typically under voluntary control.

ocular torsion↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO)

The Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project aims to apply various NASA technologies, such as Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) services, onboard-vehicle autonomy, novel approaches to communications and connectivity, and remote/virtual collaboration interfaces to current-day emergency response efforts to natural disasters. Today's emergency response efforts are based on long-standing procedures that are manaul in nature, and could benefit from modernization. In particular, the use of UAS vehicles is limited, primarily due to concerns surrounding dangerous interactions between manned/unmanned operations. STEReO hopes to introduce data exchanges that improve shared situation awareness, reduce manual coordination procedures, enable scalable and high-density air operations, collectivley bringing a positive impact to the incident response. When successful, STEReO technologies will improve efficiency and timeliness of the response and recovery phases of a disaster, resulting in substantial reductions to community harm, and will also accelerate NASA’s development of high-density resilient operations, benefitting other projects relying on increasing levels of autonomy and connectivity. The prepared material provides an overview of the STEReO project, for presentation at the 2019 Convergent Aeronautics Solution (CAS) Showcase event. The CAS showcase brings together all of the current CAS execution activities, highlighting NASA's high-risk investments in aeronautics research.

Mercer, Joey↗
NASA NTRS2020

Monthly Difference in the Boreal Winter El Niño Precipitation Response over North America: Insights into Why January Is More Difficult to Predict than February

This study explores the monthly difference in the prediction skill of the ENSO response in boreal winter over North America reported in earlier studies. This monthly difference in the prediction skill is also revealed in atmosphere-ocean coupled and uncoupled NASA GEOS-5 model. Observational features of the ENSO response each month are analyzed using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) data.The results show that the prediction skill of the temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the ENSO response over the western North America tends to be greater in February whereas lower in January. Coupled and uncoupled models both put negative geopotential height anomaly over the northeast Pacific to the west of observation in January, causing that the precipitation anomalies to be off the coast instead of the coast. This discrepancy between observation and model is minimal in February. West coast precipitation anomalies are shown to be sensitive to the location of this anomalous height anomaly, but the precipitation response all the southern tier of states appear less sensitive to errors in the zonal wind response.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗
NASA NTRS2019

Generation of a Reduced-Order Model of an Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle Using Indicial Response Functions

Within the NATO STO AVT-251 Task Group, a generic Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) planform was redesigned based on requirements derived from parts of the flight envelope of the defined mission. Because of the lambda-shape planform and associated flow phenomena including shocks and vortices, the aerodynamic design process relies heavily on high-fidelity predictions from computational fluid dynamics (CFD). These simulations enable accurate flight dynamics predictions, allowing for the identification of any potential performance issues early in the design process. Potentially, a complete flight dynamics model can be derived from CFD calculations provided that the underlying reduced order model (ROM) captures the underlying physics contained within the CFD results. This work investigates the creation of a nonlinear ROM using indicial response functions. The response functions are obtained using a grid motion approach that separates the effects of angle of attack and pitch rate. This approach is demonstrated using three different CFD codes from various organizations: ENSOLV at Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, USM3D at NASA Langley Research Center, and Kestrel at the United States Air Force Academy. ROM predictions were generated for a manoeuver resembling a low-speed pull-up. The predictions are found to be sensitive to the quality of the steady-state solutions from which step-response calculations were started, as well as the convergence of the step responses themselves. Nevertheless, the indicial response method is shown to provide aerodynamic predictions with acceptable accuracy including transient effects, and as such is a promising method for computationally efficient flight dynamics predictions.

Michel P.C. van Rooij↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Response of the QBO to Abrupt Increases in CO2 Using Three Atmospheric Chemistry Configurations

Long-term projections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain highly uncertain. This is partly due to the paucity of models which are able to properly simulate that phenomenon. Only 5 of the 47 CMIP5 models are capable of spontaneously generating a realistic QBO (Butchart et al., 2018), and even those models exhibit large biases in key QBO characteristics (e.g. amplitude, period, vertical extent) when compared with observations. Furthermore, only 1 of these 5 employed interactive atmospheric chemistry, which is known to modulate QBO dynamics. We here investigate the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2. Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of Model E, version 2.2 has a higher model top (0.002 hPa), and additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Steady-state responses to doubled and quadrupled CO2 from a pre-industrial control are analyzed, as well as the transient response to a 1% per year CO2 increase. In addition, we systematically explore the impact of interactive chemistry in modulating the QBO response to increased CO2 by contrasting interactive, prescribed, and linearized ozone chemistry configurations of the model. Overall, in response to increase CO2 concentrations the QBO is seen to increase in frequency and weaken in amplitude, consistent with previous results, but the memory of the tropical stratosphere may complicate assessments of trends in chemistry and surface impacts. We also discuss implications for the trade-off between ensemble size and the complexity of the chemistry scheme in the model.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neuroimmune responses to space radiation

One of the main health risks in human deep space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by ionizing radiation due to exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). In animal models, irradiation with simulated GCRs or their components has been shown to cause neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction. The extent of CNS damage is partially mediated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which regulates the interaction between CNS and systemic responses to stressors in the rest of the body. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuronal death, neuroinflammation and oxidative stress. However, studies on BBB and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses to ionizing radiation have been limited, especially in human tissue/organ analogs. Therefore, we developed a high-throughput 3D organ-on-a-chip system to study human CNS and BBB impairments caused by deep space radiation. We investigated both immediate and delayed CNS responses to major GCR components: 0.3-0.8Gy 600MeV/n 56Fe ions; as well as to 0.5-1Gy X-rays. We observed ionizing radiation-mediated increases in BBB permeability that was exacerbated by astrocyte presence and accompanied by damage to endothelial cells and tight junctions, altered cytokine expression including TNFalpha upregulation, and increased oxidative stress. In particular, 600MeV/n 56Fe particle irradiation selectively induced astrocyte damage and increased blood-brain barrier permeability only in models that contained astrocytes in addition to endothelial cells, indicating astrocytes as a particularly radiosensitive component of the CNS that could therefore be a suitable a target for neuroprotection. Future studies will compare human and mouse CNS model responses to simulated GCRs and evaluate the induction of an anti-inflammatory phenotype in astrocytes as a potential countermeasure. Furthermore, in our lab we have been exploring the individual variability, genomic associations and secreted biomarkers of responses to space radiation, which could eventually be combined to address personalized CNS health risk and develop individual countermeasures. Ultimately, we aim to expand upon these results to uncover novel cellular and mechanistic targets for countermeasure development to mitigate human CNS damage in deep space exploration.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neuroimmune Responses to Space Radiation

One of the main health risks in human deep space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by ionizing radiation due to exposure to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). In animal models, irradiation with simulated GCRs or their components has been shown to cause neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction. The extent of CNS damage is partially mediated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which regulates the interaction between CNS and systemic responses to stressors in the rest of the body. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuronal death, neuroinflammation and oxidative stress. However, studies on BBB and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses to ionizing radiation have been limited, especially in human tissue/organ analogs. Therefore, we developed a high-throughput 3D organ-on-a-chip system to study human CNS and BBB impairments caused by deep space radiation. We investigated both immediate and delayed CNS responses to major GCR components: 600MeV/n 56Fe ions. We observed ionizing radiation-mediated dose-dependent increases in BBB permeability that was exacerbated by astrocyte presence and accompanied by altered cytokine expression including interleukin-1 receptor alpha downregulation, and increased oxidative stress. In particular, 600MeV/n 56Fe particle irradiation selectively increased damage and blood-brain barrier permeability only in models that contained astrocytes in addition to endothelial cells, indicating astrocytes as a particularly radiosensitive component of the CNS that could therefore be a suitable a target for neuroprotection. Future studies will compare human and mouse CNS model responses to simulated GCRs and evaluate the induction of an anti-inflammatory phenotype in astrocytes as a potential countermeasure. Furthermore, in our lab we have been exploring the individual variability, genomic associations and secreted biomarkers of responses to space radiation, which could eventually be combined to address personalized CNS health risk and develop individual countermeasures. Ultimately, we aim to expand upon these results to uncover novel cellular and mechanistic targets for countermeasure development to mitigate human CNS damage in deep space exploration.

space radiation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

Long-term projections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high-top \Middle Atmosphere" (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2-AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere{ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone-dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre-industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simpli fied stratospheric ozone schemes.

GISS Model E2.2-AP↗
NASA NTRS2009

Understanding how molecular hydrogen impacts the total dose and dose rate response of linear bipolar circuits

Recent Enhanced Low Dose Rate Sensitivity (ELDRS) investigations carried out by RLP Research, Arizona State University (ASU) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have shown significant differences in the degradation of bipolar micro-circuits with total dose in the presence of molecular hydrogen (H2) in packages. This has a significant impact on radiation hardness assurance and opens up opportunities to improve device performance. The general objectives of this program are to: 1. Determine the extent to which hydrogen contamination affects the total dose and dose rate response of linear bipolar circuits; 2. Develop a model that will enable the prediction of high dose rate (HDR) and low dose rate (LDR) response asymptotes and transition dose rates as a function of total dose, temperature, pressurized hydrogen, defect precursors, and other process dependent variables; 3. Explore the possibility of an accelerated hardness assurance method and possible hardening approaches; and 4. Extend the work to other technologies that have total dose response affected by hydrogen contamination.In this document, we xperimentally demonstrate with test transistors and circuits that hydrogen is correlated with ELDRS in bipolar linear circuits. We show that the amount of hydrogen determines: 1) the total dose response versus dose rate and 2) the transition dose rates between the high and low dose rate responses. The experimental results are supported with a steady state drift/diffusion analytical model as well as modeling calculations using COMSOL Multiphysics.

Pease, Ron↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPACEFLIGHT-INDUCED CHANGES IN MICROBIAL VIRULENCE AND THE IMPACT TO THE HOST IMMUNE RESPONSE

INTRODUCTION Over the past 50 years, microorganisms have displayed unexpected responses relevant to infectious disease when grown in microgravity and microgravity analogue environments, including changes in final cell concentration, biofilm production, stress resistance, antibiotic sensitivity, gene expression, and virulence. In parallel, astronaut studies have characterized a persistent spaceflight-induced dysregulation of the human immune system; consisting of altered leukocyte distribution, reductions in T and NK cell function, altered cytokine profiles, and reactivation of latent herpesviruses. Further, astronauts have some degree of clinical incidence, primarily infectious disease episodes and atopic dermatitis. The impact of the microgravity environment on host-pathogen interactions and potential for clinical disease remains understudied and poorly characterized. SPECIFIC AIMS In the Host-Microorganism, Microbial Response aspect of this study, the following Specific Aims are being investigated, using the microbial pathogens, Salmonella enterica Enteritidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Burkholderia cepacia, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli. Aim 1: Characterize the effect of spaceflight analogue culture on microbial pathogenesis-related stress responses and in vitro host-pathogen interactions. Analysis will include microbial stress responses as well as colonization and viability following pathogen challenge of three-dimensional (3-D) tissue co-culture models containing immune cells. We specifically selected obligate and opportunistic pathogens that are medically important and have been or are likely to be found aboard spacecraft. Aim 2: Characterize the effect of spaceflight analogue culture on the virulence potential of pathogenic microorganisms. Changes in virulence will be assessed using a mouse model of infection. SIGNIFICANCE The goal of this study is to use spaceflight analogue conditions to gain insight into the breadth of medically-significant International Space Station microorganisms that have altered virulence and the impact of those changes on the immune response of the host, including astronaut immune cells. This information will provide critical understanding into the impact of microgravity on potential alterations in microbial virulence and associated infectious disease risk to crew health during spaceflight missions.

C. M. Ott↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Experimental Investigations into the Material Response of Heatshields, High-Temperature Coatings, and Meteors.

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) gained heritage during the Stardust mission and is the baseline thermal protection system (TPS) material for missions to Mars. However, PICA is friable, so a thin layer of siloxane resin (NuSil) is applied to the surface of the heatshield to suppress the spread of particulate matter during cleanroom activities. Until recently, the thermochemical response of NuSil had not been accounted for in material response models. Therefore, a test campaign was executed at the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HyMETS) facility to investigate the material response of NuSil and provide crucial insight for model development. Finally, salient results from an experiment supported by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) will be discussed, which probed the material response of the Tamdakht meteorite and notable analogs. Bio: Dr. Bessire is a senior research scientist in the thermal protection system materials branch at the NASA Ames Research Center. His research focuses on developing analytical techniques designed to inform and validate the development of material response models.

Brody K. Bessire↗
NASA NTRS2021

Canopy reflectance models illustrate varying NDVI responses to change in high latitude ecosystems

Multiyear trends in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been used as metrics of high latitude ecosystem change based on the assumption that NDVI change is associated with ecological change, generally as changes in green vegetation amount (green leaf area index [LAI] or plant cover). Further, no change in NDVI is often interpreted as no change in these variables. Three canopy reflectance models including linear mixture model, the SAIL (Scattering from Arbitrarily Inclined Leaves) model, and the GeoSail model were used to simulate scenarios representing high latitude landscape NDVI responses to changes in LAI and plant cover. The simulations showed inconsistent NDVI responses. Clear increases in NDVI are generally associated with increases in LAI and plant cover. At higher values of LAI, the change in NDVI per unit change in LAI decreases, with very little change in spruce forest NDVI where crown cover is >50% and at the tundra–taiga ecotone with transitions from shrub tundra to spruce woodland. These lower responses may bias the interpretation of greening/browning trends in boreal forests. Variations in water or snow coverage were shown to produce outsized nonbiological NDVI responses. Inconsistencies in NDVI responses exemplify the need for care in the interpretation of NDVI change as a metric of high latitude ecosystem change, and that landscape characteristics in terms of the type of cover and its characteristics, such as the initial plant cover, must be taken into account in evaluating the significance of any observed NDVI trends.

Karl F Huemmrich↗
NASA NTRS2021

Recovery: Fast and Slow—Vegetation Response During the 2012–2016 California Drought

The 2012–2016 California Drought severely impacted natural vegetation across a wide range of environmental gradient. Although several studies have reported an increase in plant water stress and mortality, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem productivity responses and the associated environmental and biological drivers remain unclear. Here, using Enhanced Vegetation Index from the Moderate resolution imaging spectrometer, we found that 45% of the natural ecosystems showed an abrupt change (breakpoint [BP]) in productivity during 2012–2016. There were three major contrasting temporal patterns of productivity responses: (i) a steady increase under higher temperature followed by a decline due to accumulated moisture depletion (high elevation forest) or temperature decrease (high elevation nonforest), (ii) gradual decline during the drought followed by a rapid recovery within 1 year after drought stress was partially relieved, and (iii) both a gradual decline and an abrupt decline. The magnitude of abrupt changes was negatively correlated (r = −0.80, p < 0.001) with initial gradual changes. Overall, changes during BP offset, on average, 57% of the preceding gradual responses. The spatial variability in ecosystem response patterns is driven by both environmental and biological factors. Particularly, for forests, positive BP was driven by increasing rainfall and decreasing temperature, while negative BP was mainly driven by the precipitation anomaly. By 2019, 33% of the natural vegetation have recovered to the level of EVI in 2010. Ecosystem responses to multiyear droughts can influence ecosystem dynamics in a complex pattern. Multiple ecohydrological factors should be considered to understand and predict the long-term drought impacts on ecosystems.

Xi Yang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗