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At least 451 records · Page 25

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NASA NTRS1980

Shuttle program. Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers, predicted solar radio flux

A solar activity prediction technique for monthly mean sunspot numbers over a period of approximately ten years from February 1979 to January 1989 is presented. This includes the predicted maximum epoch of solar cycle 21, approximately January 1980, and the predicted minimum epoch of solar cycle 22, approximately March 1987. Additionally, the solar radio flux 10.7 centimeter smooth values are included for the same time frame using a smooth 13 month empirical relationship. The incentive for predicting solar activity values is the requirement of solar flux data as input to upper atmosphere density models utilized in mission planning satellite orbital lifetime studies.

Johnson, G. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Chromospheric and photospheric evolution of an extremely active solar region in solar cycle 19

a comprehensive investigation was made of phenomena attending the disk passage, July 7 to 21, 1959, of active solar center HAO-59Q. At the photospheric level that comprised an aggregate of groups of sunspots of which one group, Mt. Wilson 14284, showed all the attributes deemed typical of solar regions associated with the production of major flares. A special characteristic of 59Q was its capability to eject dark material. Part of this material remained trapped in the strong magnetic fields above group 14284 where it formed a system of interrelated arches, the legs of which passed through components of the bright chromospheric network of the plage and were rooted in various underlying umbrae. Two apparently diffeent kinds of flare were identified in 59Q; namely, prominence flares (which comprised brightenings within part of the suspended dark prominence) and plage flares (which comprised brightenings within part of the chromospheric network). Prominence flares were of three varieties described as 'impact', 'stationary' and 'moving' prominence flares. Plage flares were accompanied in 3 percent of cases by Type III bursts. These latter radio events indicate the associated passage through the corona of energetic electrons in the approximate energy range 10 to 100 keV. At least 87.5 percent, and probably all, impulsive brightenings in 59Q began directly above minor spots, many of which satellites to major umbrae. Stationary and moving prominence flares were individually triggered at sites beneath which magnetic changes occurred within intervals which included each flare's flash phase.

Mckenna-Lawlor, S. M. P.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Solar semidiurnal tide in the thermosphere

The behavior of the solar semidiurnal tide in the thermosphere is studied on the basis of a three-dimensional model involving viscosity, thermal conductivity, Coriolis effects, sphericity of the earth, and ion drag. Sources of excitation are absorption of solar radiation by H2O and O3 below the mesopause, and by O2 in the Schumann-Runge continuum (SRC), and O, O2, N2 in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV), in the thermosphere. The relative importance of EUV, SRC, and forcing below the thermosphere are assessed. The semidiurnal tide in the lower thermosphere is re-examined, and the utility of equivalent gravity mode calculations is evaluated. The calculations presented provide detailed predictions for all meteorological fields as functions of season, solar cycle, and other parameters. In particular, the semidiurnal tide between 100 and 130 km is dominated by the 2,4 mode excited below the thermosphere. During sunspot minimum, forcing from below is dominant, but during sunspot maximum tides from below are so severely attenuated within the thermosphere that thermospheric in situ forcing becomes relatively more important. Results are compared with tidal observations at 45 deg latitude.

Hong, S.-S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Solar UV Temporal Variations During Solar Cycle 22 and the Twentieth Century

Solar ultraviolet measurements of the Mg II core-to-wing ratio from the NOAA9 satellite show a fast rise for solar cycle 22 from the minimum in September 1986. The high values in late 1989 are comparable to the maximum values for cycle 21. Estimates of earlier solar UV variations are made back to 1947 using a combination of the 10 cm solar radio flux (F10) and the sunspot blocking function. The latter is interpreted to partially remove the gyroresonance component from F10, which is not present in the UV flux.

Donnelly, Richard F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The effect of coronal mass ejections on the structure of the heliospheric current sheet

The existence of a stable heliospheric current sheet (HCS) structure near solar cycle maximum was questioned since the recognition that coronal mass ejections (CME's) occur in coronal helmet streamers. Evidence is presented suggesting that pre-existing helmet streamers disrupted or blown out by CME's reform in a time interval much shorter than the life time of the HCS, and that the concept of the HCS has a meaning at any time of thesolar cycle. It appears that the HCS, the current layer that separates adjacent interplanetary magnetic field regions with opposite magnetic polarity, exists throughout the solar cycle, though not always as a thin disk-like sheet. The sheet may be thickened by embedded magnetic ropes formed by CME's, especially near sunspot maximum. The HCS may be used as timing mark in identifying or predicting CME's in the interplanetary medium.

Zhao, Xuepu↗

NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS1993

Termination shock - Solar cycle variations of location and speed

Plasma and magnetic field data from Voyagers 1 and 2 over an 11-year period (1978-1988) together with a one-fluid MHD model are used to study the motion of the termination shock. The observed large fluctuations in solar wind parameters cause variations in the speed, in the jump conditions, and in the location of the termination shock. If the interstellar stagnation pressure is equivalent to a magnetic field of 0.5 nT plus draping enhancements, the termination shock moves between 88 AU and 102 AU. The location of the termination shock is anticorrelated with the sunspot number. The termination shock is very strong with pressure ratios of a few thousands, the fast Mach number is about 12, and the plasma beta ratio jumps from about 0.1 to about 14. During the declining phase of the solar cycle, the shock speed is often greater than or comparable to the spacecraft speed. If the crossing of the termination shock by a spacecraft occurs during the declining phase, the spacecraft will cross the termination shock 3 or more times over a period of about 4 years.

Whang, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Badhwar-O'Neill 2011 Galactic Cosmic Ray Model Update and Future Improvements

The Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Model based on actual GCR measurements is used by deep space mission planners for the certification of microelectronic systems and the analysis of radiation health risks to astronauts in space missions. The BO GCR Model provides GCR flux in deep space (outside the earth's magnetosphere) for any given time from 1645 to present. The energy spectrum from 50 MeV/n - 20 GeV/n is provided for ions from hydrogen to uranium. This work describes the most recent version of the BO GCR model (BO'11). BO'11 determined the GCR flux at a given time applying an emperical time delay function to past sunspot activity. We describe the GCR measurement data used in the BO'11 update - modern data from BESS, PAMELA, CAPRICE, and ACE emphasized more than the older balloon data used for the previous BO model (BO'10). We look at the GCR flux for the last 24 solar minima and show how much greater the flux was for the cycle 24 minimum in 2010. The BO'11 Model uses the traditional, steady-state Fokker-Planck differential equation to account for particle transport in the heliosphere due to diffusion, convection, and adiabatic deceleration. It assumes a radially symmetrical diffusion coefficient derived from magnetic disturbances caused by sunspots carried outward by a constant solar wind. A more complex differential equation is now being tested to account for particle transport in the heliosphere in the next generation BO model. This new model is time-dependent (no longer a steady state model). In the new model, the dynamics and anti-symmetrical features of the actual heliosphere are accounted for so emperical time delay functions will no longer be required. The new model will be capable of simulating the more subtle features of modulation - such as the Sun's polarity and modulation dependence on gradient and curvature drift. This improvement is expected to significantly improve the fidelity of the BO GCR model. Preliminary results of its performance will be presented.

O'Neill, Pat M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Badhwar-O'Neill 2011 Galactic Cosmic Ray Model Update and Future Improvements

The Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Model based on actual GR measurements is used by deep space mission planners for the certification of micro-electronic systems and the analysis of radiation health risks to astronauts in space missions. The BO GCR Model provides GCR flux in deep space (outside the earth's magnetosphere) for any given time from 1645 to present. The energy spectrum from 50 MeV/n-20 GeV/n is provided for ions from hydrogen to uranium. This work describes the most recent version of the BO GCR model (BO'11). BO'11 determines the GCR flux at a given time applying an empirical time delay function to past sunspot activity. We describe the GCR measurement data used in the BO'11 update - modern data from BESS, PAMELA, CAPRICE, and ACE emphasized for than the older balloon data used for the previous BO model (BO'10). We look at the GCR flux for the last 24 solar minima and show how much greater the flux was for the cycle 24 minimum in 2010. The BO'11 Model uses the traditional, steady-state Fokker-Planck differential equation to account for particle transport in the heliosphere due to diffusion, convection, and adiabatic deceleration. It assumes a radially symmetrical diffusion coefficient derived from magnetic disturbances caused by sunspots carried onward by a constant solar wind. A more complex differential equation is now being tested to account for particle transport in the heliosphere in the next generation BO model. This new model is time-dependent (no longer a steady state model). In the new model, the dynamics and anti-symmetrical features of the actual heliosphere are accounted for so empirical time delay functions will no longer be required. The new model will be capable of simulating the more subtle features of modulation - such as the Sun's polarity and modulation dependence on the gradient and curvature drift. This improvement is expected to significantly improve the fidelity of the BO GCR model. Preliminary results of its performance will be presented.

O'Neill, Pat M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Periodogram analysis of sunspot numbers and the relation with solar activities

The time series of average monthly sunspot numbers during 1900-1992 is studied by using power spectral analysis. This prediction method is used to study the sunspot periodicities relations between its, and with the other periodicities by solar activities. There are periodicities (between few days and 5 years) overwhelm on the mean solar cycle. ( 11 year cycle). These periodicities have the same relation with variations of solar constant and solar radiation reaching the Earth's atmosphere in the last solar cycle. These periods are related to the solar magnetic activity and to the modulation of solar features due to solar rotation.

Hady, Ahmed A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

A possible variation of the solar rotation with the activity cycle

Daily spectroscopic observation of the rotation of the sun indicates that several slow changes have taken place since 1967. The equatorial rotation rate of the photospheric gas has gradually increased until, in 1976, it is close to the sunspot rate determined by Newton and Nunn (1951). The latitude gradient at middle latitudes decreased starting in 1974, and the latitude gradient at high latitudes has increased in the same interval. An increase in the number of low-latitude active regions may be responsible for accelerating the photospheric gas.

Howard, R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cosmic ray secular variations in terrestrial records and aurorae

The rediscovery that the Sun and the solar wind can undergo important changes on historical time scales has brought into question the stability of the cyclic behavior of past time series of solar and solar-terrestrial origin. It was found by Vector Fourier analysis that the solar 11 year cycle is present in the series of 10Be, delta 180, in ice cores and of thermoluminescence (TL) in sea sediments during the last Millennia with a frequency modulation, related to the Sun behavior, as tested by comparison with the Sunspot number R sub z series. It was shown that the cyclogram of the series of yearly Aurorae from 1721 to 1979 linear-regression-corrected-for-R sub z is straight for the periodicity zeta=11,1y, which indicates that such periodicity is constant in time corresponding to the only line present in the 11y band. The maxima of this component appear at the same time together with the high speed solar wind streams taking place in coronal holes situated in high heliolatitudes. It is evidenced that the 11 year cycle has undergone frequency oscillations on a time scale of two centuries, although it is very difficult to determine the periodicities with high accuracy.

Attolini, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Variability of the solar flux in the far ultraviolet 1175-2100 A

An attempt is made to correlate available observations within the framework of a simple two-component model of the full-disk flux which divides the solar surface into quiet and active areas with a constant average contrast factor for the intensity at a particular wavelength. The expected range of variability over the solar cycle of the far UV flux is examined within the 1175-2100 A wavelength range. Two possible indices of solar variability, the calcium plage index and the Zurich sunspot number, are investigated as guides to the fraction of disk covered by active regions and the possible resulting flux variability. In addition, contrast factors I(plage)/I(quiet region) are determined for various lines and continua, and the fraction of the disk covered by plages at various times is estimated. Results are in good agreement with the L-alpha fluxes of Vidal-Madjar (1975) and the broadband observations by Hinteregger (1979), but disagree with the flux variability reported by Heath and Thekaekara (1977) over the 1700-3000 A range.

Cook, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Periodic behaviors in the observed vertical column abundances of atmospheric hydroxyl

OH vertical column abundances measured at Fritz Peak Observatory, Colorado, from 1977 through 1988 reveal semi-annual and annual cycles which are amplitude modulated over the 11-year data base. The modulation of the OH seasonal behavior is in phase with solar activity as described by the sunspot number index. No mechanism for the observed covariance of this OH behavior with solar activity has yet been identified.

Burnett, Elizabeth Beaver↗

NASA NTRS1991

Line-blanketing variations in the irradiance spectrum of the sun from maximum to minimum of the solar cycle

Solar irradiance spectra obtained at or near the maximum and minimum phases of the solar magnetic activity cycle are compared. The characteristics of these spectra are related to the irradiance measurements available from the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) of the SMM. An interpretation based on sunspots and faculae being added to the atmosphere at solar maximum can account for less than 4 percent of the ACRIM decrease to be arising in the 500-560 nm range. The UV, with its much greater line-blanketing, is more important, in agreement with the finding of Lean (1989).

Mitchell, W. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The strength of the sun's polar fields

The magnetic field strength within the polar caps of the sun is an important parameter for both the solar activity cycle and for our understanding of the interplanetary magnetic field. Measurements of the line-of-sight component of the magnetic field generally yield 0.1 to 0.2 mT near times of sunspot minimum. This paper reports measurements of the polar fields made at the Stanford Solar Observatory using the Fe I line at 525.02 nm. It is found that the average flux density poleward of 55 deg latitude is about 0.6 mT peaking to more than 1 mT at the pole and decreasing to 0.2 mT at the polar cap boundary. The total open flux through either polar cap thus becomes about 3 x 10 to the 14th Wb. It is also shown that observed magnetic field strengths vary as the line-of-sight component of nearly radial fields.

Svalgaard, L.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability

Measurements of the solar energy throughout the solar spectrum and understanding its variability provide important information about the physical processes and structural changes in the solar interior and in the solar atmosphere...The aim of this paper is to discuss the solar-cycle-related long-term changes in solar total and UV irradiances. The spaceborne irradiance observations are compared to ground-based indices of solar magnetic activity, such as the Photometric Sunspot Index, full disk magnetic flux, and the Mt. Wilson Magnetic Plage Strength Index.

total solar irradiance UV irradiance soalr magneti↗

NASA NTRS1984

Studies of solar magnetic fields during the solar maximum year

Observations and studies of solar magnetic fields that were carried out during the period of the solar maximum year (SMY) January 1980 to June 1981, are reviewed with the goal of providing a summary of what was learned about solar magnetic fields during the SMY. Such subjects as the relationship between solar magnetic fields and flares, the role of magnetic fields in the sunspot phenomenon, the magnetic-canopy structure overlying the supergranular network as well as the turbulent magnetic fields within the network, the fields within the polar crown prominences, and the solar magnetic cycle are addressed.

Hagyard, M. J.↗