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DOE OSTI2018

Simulations of Brady's-Type Fault Undergoing CO2 Push-Pull: Pressure-Transient and Sensitivity Analysis

Input and output files used for fault characterization through numerical simulation using iTOUGH2. The synthetic data for the push period are generated by running a forward simulation (input parameters are provided in iTOUGH2 Brady GF6 Input Parameters.txt [InvExt6i.txt]). In general, the permeability of the fault gouge, damage zone, and matrix are assumed to be unknown. The input and output files are for the inversion scenario where only pressure transients are available at the monitoring well located 200 m above the injection well and only the fault gouge permeability is estimated. The input files are named InvExt6i, INPUT.tpl, FOFT.ins, CO2TAB, and the output files are InvExt6i.out, pest.fof, and pest.sav (names below are display names). The table graphic in the data files below summarizes the inversion results, and indicates the fault gouge permeability can be estimated even if imperfect guesses are used for matrix and damage zone permeabilities, and permeability anisotropy is not taken into account.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Adjoint sensitivity analysis of chaotic dynamical systems with non-intrusive least squares shadowing

This paper presents a discrete adjoint version of the recently developed non-intrusive least squares shadowing (NILSS) algorithm, which circumvents the instability that conventional adjoint methods encounter for chaotic systems. The NILSS approach involves solving a smaller minimization problem than other shadowing approaches and can be implemented with only minor modifications to preexisting tangent and adjoint solvers. Adjoint NILSS is demonstrated on a small chaotic ODE, a one-dimensional scalar PDE, and a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the minimal flow unit, a turbulent channel flow on a small spatial domain. This is the first application of an adjoint shadowing-based algorithm to a three-dimensional turbulent flow. - Highlights: • A discrete adjoint non-intrusive least squares shadowing (NILSS) is presented. • The NILSS approach is closely related to multiple shooting shadowing (MSS). • Adjoint NILSS prevents exponential growth in time of the adjoint field. • Adjoint NILSS is demonstrated on a simulation of wall-bounded turbulent flow.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Sensitivity Analysis of Material Model Parameters to Reproduce Crushing of Composite Tubes

The ability to predict the behavior of composite structures under impact conditions is an important challenge for engineering analysis since it requires modeling beyond the elasticity and into failure initiation and propagation. Crushing of laminate composites is the result of a combination of several and complex failure mechanisms, which are not always possible to reproduce together in a single finite element analysis (FEA). In this paper, models based on lamina-level failure criteria have been used to predict the onset of damage; once failure initiates, the mechanisms of failure propagation require reducing the material properties using several degradation schemes. Among the composite material models available in LS-DYNA, MAT-ENHANCED-COMPOSITE-DAMAGE (MAT-54) has been chosen for modeling the axial crushing of composite tubes with various resistant sections and wall slope, given the reduced experimental input parameters to insert into the card definition. Comparison with experimental data shows that such material model is able to successfully reproduce the crushing behavior, even if the numerical results are strictly correlated with some model parameters which cannot be measured experimentally or are purely mathematical expedients. Therefore, extensive calibration of these parameters by trial-and-error is necessary to achieve successful simulation results. Once done it for a structure made of the same composite material, it is possible to adopt the same card configuration for all the other cases, obtaining good agreement between numerical and experimental results. After, the attempt to model the same geometries using the MAT-LAMINATED-COMPOSITE-FABRIC (MAT-58) card with the same parameter values previously calibrated has been done obtaining results comparable with the experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Foreground and Sensitivity Analysis for Broadband (2D) 21 cm–Lyα and 21 cm–Hα Correlation Experiments Probing the Epoch of Reionization

A detection of the predicted anticorrelation between 21 cm and either Lyα or Hα from the epoch of reionization (EOR) would be a powerful probe of the first galaxies. While 3D intensity maps isolate foregrounds in low-k{sub ∥} modes, infrared surveys cannot yet match the field of view and redshift resolution of radio intensity mapping experiments. In contrast, 2D (i.e., broadband) infrared intensity maps can be measured with current experiments and are limited by foregrounds instead of photon or thermal noise. We show that 2D experiments can measure most of the 3D fluctuation power at k<0.2 Mpc{sup −1} while preserving its correlation properties. However, we show that foregrounds pose two challenges: (1) simple geometric effects produce percent-level correlations between radio and infrared fluxes, even if their luminosities are uncorrelated; and (2) radio and infrared foreground residuals contribute sample variance noise to the cross spectrum. The first challenge demands better foreground masking and subtraction, while the second demands large fields of view to average away uncorrelated radio and infrared power. Using radio observations from the Murchison Widefield Array and near-infrared observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, we set an upper limit on residual foregrounds of the 21 cm–Lyα cross-power spectrum at z∼7 of Δ{sup 2}<181 (kJy sr{sup −1} mK) (95%) at ℓ∼800. We predict levels of foreground correlation and sample variance noise in future experiments, showing that higher-resolution surveys such as LOFAR, SKA-LOW, and the Dark Energy Survey can start to probe models of the 21 cm–Lyα EOR cross spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems

The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Orbit determination sensitivity analysis for th Europa Clipper Mission tour

This paper will assess the sensitivity of OD delivery and knowledge performance for the current Europa Mission trajectory through parametric variation of a baseline tour navigation strategy.2 Variations of several parameters are run, one at a time, to determine the impact on spacecraft ephemeris uncertainties at OD knowledge, delivery, and encounter reconstruction times. There are two basic categories of sensitivity runs considered: variations of tracking data type and amount, and variations to dynamic parameters. The results of these parameter and data variations are compared against the values necessary to achieve accurate instrument pointing and observation planning.

Young, Brian↗

NASA NTRS1976

Space Shuttle Orbiter entry guidance and control system sensitivity analysis

An approach has been developed to determine the guidance and control system sensitivity to off-nominal aerodynamics for the Space Shuttle Orbiter during entry. This approach, which uses a nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom interactive, digital simulation, has been applied to both the longitudinal and lateral-directional axes for a portion of the orbiter entry. Boundary values for each of the aerodynamic parameters have been identified, the key parameters have been determined, and system modifications that will increase system tolerance to off-nominal aerodynamics have been recommended. The simulations were judged by specified criteria and the performance was evaluated by use of key dependent variables. The analysis is now being expanded to include the latest shuttle guidance and control systems throughout the entry speed range.

Stone, H. W.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Shape sensitivity analysis of flutter response of a laminated wing

A method is presented for calculating the shape sensitivity of a wing aeroelastic response with respect to changes in geometric shape. Yates' modified strip method is used in conjunction with Giles' equivalent plate analysis to predict the flutter speed, frequency, and reduced frequency of the wing. Three methods are used to calculate the sensitivity of the eigenvalue. The first method is purely a finite difference calculation of the eigenvalue derivative directly from the solution of the flutter problem corresponding to the two different values of the shape parameters. The second method uses an analytic expression for the eigenvalue sensitivities of a general complex matrix, where the derivatives of the aerodynamic, mass, and stiffness matrices are computed using a finite difference approximation. The third method also uses an analytic expression for the eigenvalue sensitivities, but the aerodynamic matrix is computed analytically. All three methods are found to be in good agreement with each other. The sensitivities of the eigenvalues were used to predict the flutter speed, frequency, and reduced frequency. These approximations were found to be in good agreement with those obtained using a complete reanalysis.

Bergen, Fred D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Shape sensitivity analysis of flutter response of a laminated wing

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Analysis of Salt Storage Cavern Mechanical Integrity Test Parameters

This report examines the sensitivity of salt cavern Mechanical Integrity Tests (MIT) to uncertainties in key test parameters. MIT's are used by cavern operators to detect and quantify leak rates in access wells in underground salt storage caverns and involve a suite of measured and assumed parameters that have a direct impact on the sensitivity of the testing to detect actual leaks from the cavern storage system. Determining the sensitivity of the testing to these different parameters provides a basis for understanding the results from, and informing the design criteria for, this type of testing. Without fully understanding the sensitivity of the test to the testing parameters, it is possible that the test results may not accurately reflect the integrity of the cavern system; an actual leak may be missed, or an intact system may be interpreted as leaking. This report reviews the main parameters included in MITs and examines how selected changes in their values can impact test results. The deviations used in the sensitivity analyses were designed to be within the ranges believed to be similar to those which may be encountered during testing. The results show that small, plausible fluctuations in some of the parameters measured values can have a significant impact on the testing results. Of the parameters studied here, the sensitivity analyses showed the order of importance to be (from highest to lowest): nitrogen-oil interface depth measurement, well bore temperature, well head pressure, and finally the internal geometry of the testing interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1967

Sensitivity analysis Progress report, 1 Mar. - 1 May 1967

Flow graph technique for calculating sensitivity coefficients for electric networks

FLOW GRAPH↗

NASA NTRS1992

Parallel-vector design sensitivity analysis in structural dynamics

This paper presents a parallel-vector algorithm for sensitivity calculations in linear structural dynamics. The proposed alternative formulation works efficiently with the reduced system of dynamic equations, since it eliminates the need for expensive and complicated based-vector derivatives, which are required in the conventional reduced system formulation. The relationship between the alternative formulation and the conventional reduced system formulation has been established, and it has been proven analytically that the two approaches are identical when all the mode shapes are included. This paper validates the proposed alternative algorithm through numerical experiments, where only a small number of mode shapes are used. In addition, a modified mode acceleration method is presented, thus not only the displacements but also the velocities and accelerations are shown to be improved.

Zhang, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Non-Intrusive Algorithm for Sensitivity Analysis of Chaotic Flow Simulations

We demonstrate a novel algorithm for computing the sensitivity of statistics in chaotic flow simulations to parameter perturbations. The algorithm is non-intrusive but requires exposing an interface. Based on the principle of shadowing in dynamical systems, this algorithm is designed to reduce the effect of the sampling error in computing sensitivity of statistics in chaotic simulations. We compare the effectiveness of this method to that of the conventional finite difference method.

Blonigan, Patrick J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

• Background noise from ionizing decay poses challenges for MKIDs due to their sensitivity to small energy depositions. • Our group bakes the MKID housing lid in radon to study effects of alphas from daughter isotopes in the decay chain. • The impact of alpha particles on the chip depends on their energy, making their distribution key to characterizing and reducing noise in superconducting quantum devices.

Hall, Matthew [Southern California U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

Superconducting quantum devices, such as microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs), are highly sensitive instruments used in quantum computing and advanced sensing technologies. However, their extreme sensitivity also makes them vulnerable to background noise from natural sources like radiation. One significant contributor to this noise is alpha particles emitted by 210Po, a radon decay daughter that accumulates on surfaces near the detector. This project investigates how alpha particles emitted from 210Po interact with MKID chips. These particles can deposit energy on the detector surface, disrupting its operation and generating false signals. Understanding the energy and behavior of these particles is crucial for improving the design and reliability of quantum devices. To explore this, we first modeled the decay chain starting from 210Pb to 210Po using differential equations. This allowed us to predict how the activity of alpha-emitting isotopes changes over time, reaching a steady state after about two years. Next, we simulated alpha particle interactions with the MKID chip using the Geant4 software toolkit. We built a detailed computer model of the detector housing, including the copper lid where alpha particles originate, the silicon chip, and a thin aluminum sensor layer. Alpha particles were emitted isotropically from just beneath the copper lid’s surface, mimicking natural decay conditions. The simulation tracked how these particles deposit energy on the chip, generating electron-hole pairs and phonons. The results provide insight into the behavior of the resultant electron-hole pairs and phonons, giving us a clear understanding of the energy deposition distribution on the chip. This work supports efforts to mitigate background noise in superconducting sensors, advancing their use in quantum computing and sensitive physics experiments.

Hall, Matthew [Fermilab; UCLA]↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis Applications to Fuel Performance Modeling

Best-estimate fuel performance codes such as BISON currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, utilize empirical and mechanistic lower-length-scale informed correlations to predict fuel behavior under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. Traditionally, best-estimate results are presented using the correlations with no quantification of the uncertainty in the output metrics of interest. However, there are associated uncertainties in the input parameters and correlations used to determine the behavior of the fuel and cladding under irradiation. Therefore, it is important to perform uncertainty quantification and include confidence bounds on the output metrics that take into account the uncertainties in the inputs. In addition, sensitivity analyses can be performed to determine which input parameters have the greatest influence on the outputs. In this paper we couple the BISON fuel performance code to the DAKOTA uncertainty analysis software to analyze a representative fuel performance problem. The case studied in this paper is based upon rod 1 from the IFA-432 integral experiment performed at the Halden Reactor in Norway. The rodlet is representative of a BWR fuel rod. The input parameters uncertainties are broken into three separate categories including boundary condition uncertainties (e.g., power, coolant flow rate), manufacturing uncertainties (e.g., pellet diameter, cladding thickness), and model uncertainties (e.g., fuel thermal conductivity, fuel swelling). Utilizing DAKOTA, a variety of statistical analysis techniques are applied to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the output metrics of interest. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of sampling methods, polynomial chaos expansions, surrogate models, and variance-based decomposition. The output metrics investigated in this study are the fuel centerline temperature, cladding surface temperature, fission gas released, and fuel rod diameter. The results highlight the importance of quantifying the uncertainty and sensitivity in fuel performance modeling predictions and the need for additional research into improving the material models that are currently available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis applications to fuel performance modeling

Best-estimate fuel performance codes such as BISON currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory, utilize empirical and mechanistic lower-length-scale informed correlations to predict fuel behavior under normal operating and accident reactor conditions. Traditionally, best-estimate results are presented using the correlations with no quantification of the uncertainty in the output metrics of interest. However, there are associated uncertainties in the input parameters and correlations used to determine the behavior of the fuel and cladding under irradiation. Therefore, it is important to perform uncertainty quantification and include confidence bounds on the output metrics that take into account the uncertainties in the inputs. In addition, sensitivity analyses can be performed to determine which input parameters have the greatest influence on the outputs. In this paper we couple the BISON fuel performance code to the DAKOTA uncertainty analysis software to analyze a representative fuel performance problem. The case studied in this paper is based upon rod 1 from the IFA-432 integral experiment performed at the Halden Reactor in Norway. The rodlet is representative of a BWR fuel rod. The input parameters uncertainties are broken into three separate categories including boundary condition uncertainties (e.g., power, coolant flow rate), manufacturing uncertainties (e.g., pellet diameter, cladding thickness), and model uncertainties (e.g., fuel thermal conductivity, fuel swelling). Utilizing DAKOTA, a variety of statistical analysis techniques are applied to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of the output metrics of interest. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of sampling methods, polynomial chaos expansions, surrogate models, and variance-based decomposition. The output metrics investigated in this study are the fuel centerline temperature, cladding surface temperature, fission gas released, and fuel rod diameter. The results highlighted the importance of the thermal conductivity of the fuel, the thermal conductivity of the cladding, the gap thickness, the fuel thermal expansion, and the system power factor as influential parameters.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Decoupled direct method for sensitivity analysis in combustion kinetics

An efficient, decoupled direct method for calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients of homogeneous, batch combustion kinetic rate equations is presented. In this method the ordinary differential equations for the sensitivity coefficients are solved separately from , but sequentially with, those describing the combustion chemistry. The ordinary differential equations for the thermochemical variables are solved using an efficient, implicit method (LSODE) that automatically selects the steplength and order for each solution step. The solution procedure for the sensitivity coefficients maintains accuracy and stability by using exactly the same steplengths and numerical approximations. The method computes sensitivity coefficients with respect to any combination of the initial values of the thermochemical variables and the three rate constant parameters for the chemical reactions. The method is illustrated by application to several simple problems and, where possible, comparisons are made with exact solutions and those obtained by other techniques.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗