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At least 451 records · Page 25

Initial Risk Inventory for Commercial Scale Storage Sites

The “Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership” (SECARB-USA) project supports the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy's (FE) mission to help the United States meet its need for secure, affordable, and environmentally sound fossil energy supplies by utilizing the advancements made since 2003 by the Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (RCSP) Initiative to continue to identify and address knowledge gaps. The SECARB-USA regional initiative encompasses the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and portions of Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia. The primary objective of the project is to identify and address regional onshore storage and transport challenges facing commercial deployment of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. This document provides an overview of risks relevant to commercial CCUS projects.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

International Applications for Floating Solar PV (FPV) [Slides]

Floating solar is a comparatively new concept. Floating solar is about to form a third pillar in the market for solar energy next to ground mounted and rooftop solar. The Asia-Pacific region already dominates the fast-emerging market in floating solar PV (FPV), and it looks set to build on that position as more nations get on board and costs fall. Asia-Pacific is set to increase its market share from 74% in 2020 to 87% in 2026 in terms of global installed FPV capacity. However, since floating solar systems are still a new application, there is a lack of information on its performance, cost, technical complexity, and operations and maintenance (O&M). This seminar series seeks to partially remedy that through presenting case studies that highlight the benefits, challenges, and applications of FPV in South and Southeast Asia.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of Mixed Sources on the Atmospheric Aerosols of Urbanized Areas in the Philippines

Southeast Asia (SEA) holds approximately 10% of the global population, who are constantly exposed to severe local and transboundary air pollution. Here, we characterized the physiochemical characteristics of atmospheric aerosols in urbanized areas (Valenzuela, Manila, and Boracay) in the Philippines. The variability of coarse and fine aerosols, black carbon (BC), and trace elements of particulate matter (PM) were analyzed between June 2017 and April 2019. The average fine (coarse) aerosols of Valenzuela, Manila, and Boracay were 26.7 (80.4), 27.9 (86.6), and 20.9 (124.6) µg m –3 , respectively, which all exceeded the recent annual limits of the World Health Organization. The average BC level was 6.6 µg m –3 across three sampling sites, ranging between 4 to 83% of the fine PM mass. Vehicular emission predominated at the extreme urban sites as reflected by the high BC levels attributed to transport activities. The conventional receptor modeling procedure was implemented and improved by integrating BC speciation, which distinguished vehicle emission and biomass burning. The new method revealed eight and seven sources influencing the atmospheric conditions of Valenzuela and Boracay. In particular, the elevated zinc and lead highlighted the substantial impact of industrial sources in Valenzuela, attributing more than 9% of PM 2.5 . For Boracay, construction activities evidently enhanced PM based on the mass burden of calcium. Overall, the results uncovered the origin of PM 2.5 in urbanized locations in the Philippines, which will be valuable in reducing the exposure of a significant portion of the global population to harmful pollutants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Approximately 15% of Miscanthus yield is lost at current commercial cutting heights in Iowa

Various works have quantitatively characterized the effects of environmental and management factors on Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et Deu (mxg) yield and, therefore, anticipated land requirement per unit production. However, little work has addressed the effects of cutting height, which may significantly contribute to the difference between the standing aboveground biomass at harvest (i.e., biological yield) and harvested yield. This study quantitatively characterized the effect of cutting height using a replicated nitrogen trial of a 5-year-old mxg stand in southeast Iowa and related this information to observations of cutting height in nearby commercial fields. Nitrogen fertilizer did not significantly change the relationship of the stem segment mass to length, and overall, a 1-cm stem segment contributes 0.5% of the total stem biomass within the bottom 44 cm of the stem. This results in an average harvest loss of 15% of the aboveground standing biomass when cutting at 30 cm, typically seen in commercial mxg fields in eastern Iowa. Cutting height should be considered when accurately predicting commercial mxg harvest yields and changes in soil organic carbon in a commercial mxg agroecosystem.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Geochemical Assessment for Carbon Sequestration in the Conasauga Group, Northwest Georgia, USA

Sedimentary geological formations are known to be great candidates for geological carbon sequestration. Published studies suggest the southeast of the United States contains many formations suitable for carbon storage. The Cassville 1 Stratigraphic Borehole well could act as a potential carbon reservoir for nearby energy resource facilities in Georgia, United States. Although studies have shown that porous formations are adequate for geological carbon sequestration, it is important to understand possible geochemical reactions between CO 2 and the targeted geological formation before injecting any fluids. In this study, a sandstone sample from the Cassville 1 well is being considered for geological carbon sequestration in the Conasauga Group in Northwest Georgia. Here, the collected sandstone sample, consisting of quartz, K-feldspar, micas, kaolinite, and carbonate minerals such as calcite and dolomite, has a 6% porosity. Leveraging the formation composition and porosity, a one-dimensional continuum reactive transport model was built using CrunchFlow to assess possible geochemical reactions between injected CO 2 and the geological formation. Simulation results show that the carbonate minerals, calcite and dolomite, dissolve during the injection period of 10,000 days, increasing formation porosity from 6% to as much as 30%. The rate and extent of carbonate mineral dissolution and resulting porosity increase are highly sensitive to mineral reactive surface area values. No evidence of mineral precipitation was observed, suggesting that dissolution reactions will control porosity evolution during the CO 2 injection period.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Influence of biotic and abiotic factors on home range size and shape of invasive wild pigs ( Sus scrofa )

Determining factors influencing animal movements at a temporal scale that is similar to that at which management actions are conducted (e.g. weekly) is crucial for identifying efficient methods of wildlife conservation and management. Using global positioning system (GPS) data from 49 wild pigs in the southeast United States, we constructed weekly 50% and 95% utilization distributions to quantify the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on weekly core area and home range size, as well as home range shape. Here we found vegetative composition (i.e. proportion of bottomland hardwoods), season (based on forage availability), meteorological conditions (i.e. temperature and pressure), and sex influenced wild pig weekly home range and core area size, while vegetative composition (i.e. proportion of upland pines) and landscape features (i.e. distance to streams) also were important factors influencing home range shape. At close distances to streams, wild pigs had more elongate home ranges when their home ranges comprised less upland pine habitat; however, farther from streams, there was no change in home range shape across fluctuating proportions of upland pines. These results demonstrate that fine-scale wild pig home ranges and movements are pliable from week to week and influenced by several habitat, landscape, and meteorological attributes that can easily be quantified from available land use and meteorological databases. These findings are important for designing monitoring studies, identifying high risk zones for disease transmission, planning response to disease emergence events, and allowing more effective and efficient short-term management planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A view of the pan‐genome of domesticated Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata [L.] Walp.)

Abstract Cowpea, Vigna unguiculata L . Walp., is a diploid warm‐season legume of critical importance as both food and fodder in sub‐Saharan Africa. This species is also grown in Northern Africa, Europe, Latin America, North America, and East to Southeast Asia. To capture the genomic diversity of domesticates of this important legume, de novo genome assemblies were produced for representatives of six subpopulations of cultivated cowpea identified previously from genotyping of several hundred diverse accessions. In the most complete assembly (IT97K‐499‐35), 26,026 core and 4963 noncore genes were identified, with 35,436 pan genes when considering all seven accessions. GO terms associated with response to stress and defense response were highly enriched among the noncore genes, while core genes were enriched in terms related to transcription factor activity, and transport and metabolic processes. Over 5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) relative to each assembly and over 40 structural variants >1 Mb in size were identified by comparing genomes. Vu10 was the chromosome with the highest frequency of SNPs, and Vu04 had the most structural variants. Noncore genes harbor a larger proportion of potentially disruptive variants than core genes, including missense, stop gain, and frameshift mutations; this suggests that noncore genes substantially contribute to diversity within domesticated cowpea.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial O 2 consumption as a function of pore structure in soils of sorghum, switchgrass, and prairie vegetation systems

Abstract Microscale O 2 availability in soil, a main factor influencing microbial processing of soil carbon and nitrogen, is a function of O 2 diffusion and microbial O 2 consumption. While O 2 diffusivity is widely studied, it is difficult to quantify the rate of microbial O 2 consumption ( MO ). In this study, we quantified the MO using O 2 microsensor profiling to compare MO in different soils and vegetation systems while manipulating the soil pore structure. Soil samples were collected from three bioenergy vegetation systems, sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), and prairie, at an experimental site in Southeast Michigan, and from switchgrass and prairie systems at two sites in South and North Wisconsin. We prepared soil cores with two contrasting pore structures, that is, large (>30 µm Ø) pore‐dominated soil (LP) and small (<10 µm Ø) pore‐dominated soil (SP), from the same 1‐ to 2‐mm soil size fraction. We quantified MO (nmol O 2 cm −3 s −1 ) using a microprofiler with an oxygen (OX‐100 µm) microsensor (Unisense) pre‐ and post‐38‐day incubation. Across all studied systems, there was a trend for a decrease in SP MO post‐incubation, suggesting a change in microbial metabolism to lower O 2 utilization. However, sizeable microbial O 2 consumption continued in the LP soils, further corroborated by a positive correlation between the C‐CO 2 emission rate and the post‐incubation MO , highlighting that LP provided a better physical microenvironment for the soil microbes.

Chakraborty, Poulamee [Department of Plant Soil an↗

Emergence of robust anthropogenic increase of heat stress-related variables projected from CORDEX-CORE climate simulations

The information of when and where region-specific patterns in both mean and extreme temperatures leading to heat stress will emerge from the present-day climate variability is important to plan adaptation options, but to date studies on this issue still remain limited and fragmented. Here, we estimate the time of emergence (TOE) of temperature and wet-bulb temperature (Tw), a better indication of heat stress, using fine-scale, long-term regional climate model projections under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios across six different domains. Differently from previous studies, the TOE is determined using three methods applied on impact-relevant variables: two different signal-to-noise frameworks based on summer mean temperature and Tw and a statistical test to identify significant differences in daily extreme distributions. The TOE response to RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with respect to the end of 20th century variability differs significantly regardless of which TOE metric is applied. For summer mean temperature, the land fraction reaching TOE is expected to exceed 90% by the 2050s under the RCP8.5, whereas the increase rate of land exposure to TOE tends to stagnate over time under the RCP2.6 so that more than 40% of land will not experience TOE by the end of the 21st century. Compared to temperature, the TOE of Tw is reached earlier in most of the wet tropics but is delayed in hot and dry regions because of the nonlinear response of Tw to humidity. For both temperature and Tw, the TOE appears earlier in regions with low baseline variability, such as in the tropics. Despite the uncertainties arising from the choice of TOE metrics, the vast majority of regions in Africa and southeast Asia experience TOE in the early 21st century under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, which stresses the urgent need for developing adequate adaptation strategies in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral distortions to momentum and scalar exchanges by non-turbulent motion and patchy landscape variability

Modifications to the spectra of turbulent velocity and scalars and co-spectra of vertical fluxes of momentum and scalars due to patchy landscape heterogeneity and non-stationarity are explored for a Mediterranean ecosystem. About 9 months of high frequency measurements of the three velocity components, water vapor concentration, carbon dioxide concentration, and air temperature were analyzed for different seasons (spring/summer) and prevalent wind directions (southeast/northwest). The two wind directions sampled a contrast of clumped and patchy landscape comprised of olive trees (southeast) and wall bounded flow disturbed by the presence of few upwind trees (northwest). The measured spectra and co-spectra were also compared to theoretical scaling forms from stationary, planar homogeneous flow, in the absence of subsidence as derived from the Kansas experiment. To assess the role of low frequency non-turbulent motion on the spectral and co-spectral content, a 5-min Fourier cutoff was introduced and the analysis was limited to near-neutral conditions where the boundary layer depth is shallow compared to its unstable counterpart. It was shown that the velocity statistics were not appreciably impacted by the low-frequency motion causing non-stationarity. Moreover, the turbulent scalar fluxes were also shown not to be significantly impacted by such low frequency motion. The scalar variances were impacted, especially the water vapor variance and its concomitant spectral shape. When the non-turbulent motion was filtered, the scalar spectra at low wavenumbers followed expectations from the so-called attached eddy hypothesis (i.e. exhibited a $k^{-1}_x$ scaling with $k_x$ defining the longitudinal wavenumber) applicable for near-neutral conditions. For momentum co-spectra, the canonical shapes from the Kansas experiment appear to describe well the measurements here and in both dominant directions and seasons with some adjustment to the integral time scales based on wind direction. For the scalar co-spectra, deviations from the Kansas experiment were prevalent. The most noticeable and surprising deviations were their slow decay with increased sampling frequency at inertial subrange scales. This slow decay was shown not to contribute appreciably to the overall scalar fluxes. At those fine scales, predictions from local isotropy were expected to hold. The scalar co-spectral deviations from local isotropy were then discussed using a simplified co-spectral budget model where scalar–scalar co-spectra naturally emerged and the interplay between landscape heterogeneity and a scale-dependent pressure-scalar de-correlation time was postulated. It is also envisaged that the findings here offer a preliminary template for analyzing eddy-covariance data in situations that deviate from ideal conditions, especially regarding low-frequency modulations of scalar spectra and vertical scalar flux co-spectra.

Canopy turbulence↗

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Aspects of rare earth element enrichment in Allegheny Plateau coals, Pennsylvania, USA

The Allegheny Plateau in western Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern West Virginia has relatively flat-lying strata with southwest-northeast-trending anticlines cored by splay faults originating from the thrust faults and southeast-northwest-trending lineaments. The lineaments define both the structural relief of the anticlines and the coal rank. Coal rank in the Pennsylvanian Allegheny Group coals is medium volatile bituminous in the region of less-prominent structural relief and low volatile bituminous in the region with more pronounced anticlines. Zinc and Cl exhibit high values in coals in the vicinity of the lineaments. Although coal rank was not a parameter in the Principal components analysis, the highest rank coals clustered together in a quadrant defined, in part, by the Zn concentration. Zinc was selected as a parameter due to its possible link with hydrothermal mineralization and Zr and TiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 were selected based on their presumed association with detrital mineral influences. The highest rare earths + Y values in benches of the Lower Kittanning coal were found at sites close to the lineaments. Negative or negligible Ce anomalies (δCe) and strongly positive Gd anomalies (δGd) suggest marine or hydrothermal influences and negative Eu anomalies (δEu) along with high TiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 values suggest a terrestrial input. In conclusion, the plots of δCe vs. δGd and δCe vs. δEu show that the low volatile bituminous coals are segregated from the other coals, suggesting that the factors that influenced coal rank also influenced the distribution of the rare earth elements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analyzing LF/VLF Lightning Waveforms to Estimate D-region Electron Density Profiles

Lightning waveforms in the low frequency (LF; 30-300 kHz) and the very low frequency (VLF; 3-30 kHz) bands can be exploited to produce data-driven ionospheric D-region electron density profile (EDP) estimates with significantly higher spatial and temporal coverage than previously available. The lightning waveforms used in this paper are signals detected in the LF/VLF of negative cloud-to-ground lightning by the Earth Networks Total Lightning Detection Network. Each waveform contains a ground wave and a time-delayed ionospheric reflection. The time delay between the ground wave and ionospheric reflection has previously been used to estimate a single specular reflection altitude, where LF/VLF emissions are reflected by the ionosphere. Here, we expand upon previous methods to include filtering and spectral analysis, and account for oblique propagation to produce higher-order estimates for reflection altitudes and corresponding electron densities. Once estimated, reflection altitudes and corresponding electron densities can be used to derive parameters β and h’, which define an EDP for the D-region. In this study, the lightning waveform (LW) analysis is demonstrated using a single representative 24-hour dataset over the Southeast United States, and then extended to a total of 10 separate datasets with varying locations and ionospheric conditions. The LW-derived D-region EDPs are in agreement with predictions made by the Faraday International Reference Ionosphere model, and the LW EDPs β and h’ values are consistent with previous LF/VLF-derived estimates.

D-region ionosphere↗