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Long-term changes in the statistical distribution of Dobson total ozone in selected Northern Hemisphere geographical regions

The daily averages of total column amount of ozone taken in the period 1964-1988 at a network of 24 Dobson stations have been analyzed. Year-round data as well as summer data (May - Aug.) and winter data (Dec. - March) have been examined in the following regions: latitude bands (30 deg N - 39 deg N, 40 deg N - 52 deg N, 30 deg N - 60 deg N), North America, Europe, and Japan. To find year-to-year changes in the shape of the annual statistical distribution of total ozone (ASDTO) for these regions, we analyze trends in the following statistic characteristics of ASDTO: mean, standard deviation, median, and 10 and 90 percentiles. Time series of the statistical characteristics for the selected regions have been combined by averaging the individual stations values of these characteristics. The trends have been calculated by the multiple regression model adjusted for: the 11-year solar cycle, the Southern Oscillations effects, and for serial correlations. We have found that: a) in all regions (excluding Japan, North America), the shape of ASDTO has been drifting towards low ozone values. The drift seems to be not accompanied with a transformation in the shape of ASDTO. The drift speed (the rate of decrease in the annual means of total ozone) is of order 1-3 percent per decade (in the period 1970-1988). b) In Japan, the interannual changes in the shape of ASDTO have not been revealed. c) In North America, the drift of the year-round ASDTO (the year-round ASDTO comprises all the daily means of total ozone in a given year) has been accompanied with a transformation in the shape. The shape of the year round ASDTO becomes narrower. d) In all regions, except Japan and the band 30 deg - 39 deg N, the winter ASDTO (the winter ASDTO comprises the data taken in the period December in a given year through March next year) moves faster towards low ozone values than the summer ASDTO (the summer ASDTO comprises the data taken in the period May through August in a given year).

Krzyscin, Janusz W.↗

Derivation and Testing of Consumptive Water Use Fraction for Specialty Crops

The Crop Consumptive Use Fraction (CCUF) expresses beneficial water use in the form of seasonal evapotranspiration of applied water (ETAW), relative to total irrigation volume. The metric is an indicator of the efficiency of agricultural water use and is a recommended component for preparation of agricultural water management plans in California. An FAO-56 based web application has been developed to facilitate retrospective evaluation of ETAW, and hence CCUF, at field level. The current application is optimized for prevailing climate in four of the state’s main growing regions: San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Valley, Central Coast, and North Coast. User inputs include crop type, soil texture, irrigation method, daily irrigation volume, daily rainfall, and seasonal start/stop dates to define the analysis period. Time series of fractional green canopy cover (Fc), based on Landsat and Sentinel-2 Earth-resource satellite observations, are imported from NASA’s Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) system. Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) time series are accessed from Spatial CIMIS (California Irrigation Management Information System). Daily crop height (h) is estimated as a simple function of typical maximum height for the given crop type (from FAO-56) and Fc. A vegetation density coefficient (Kd) is derived from Fc and h. Stomatal control factors during mid-and late-season are applied to tree and vine crops. Typical values for minimum daily relative humidity and mean daily windspeed, derived from historical CIMIS weather data, are used to correct for regional deviations from standard climate (defined as RHmin=45%, windspeed =2m/s). The resulting daily basal crop coefficient (Kcb) represents the ET of a well-watered crop with minimal soil evaporation, relative to ETo. A soil water balance sub-model for the top 0.1 m is used to calculate daily evaporation coefficients (Ke). A second sub-model applies to the root zone to calculate crop water stress coefficients (Ks) and effective precipitation (Pe), which is the fraction of rainfall that is available for crop use. Those coefficients are combined with Kcb and ETo to calculate daily ETc. ETAW is then derived as cumulative ETc less cumulative Pe. For verification purposes, sensor installations were used to measure seasonal ETc in commercial fields for several annual and perennial specialty crops by soil water balance and energy balance methods. Model estimates of seasonal ETc show mean absolute error of <10% compared to the ground measurements.

Derivation↗

Measuring Atmospheric CO2 Enhancements from the 2017 British Columbia 1 Wildfires Using a Lidar

During the summer 2017 ASCENDS/ABoVE airborne science campaign, the NASA Goddard CO2 Sounder lidar overflew smoke plumes from wildfires in the British Columbia, Canada. In the flight path over Vancouver Island on 8 August 2017, the column XCO2 retrievals from the lidar measurements at flight altitudes around 9 km showed an average enhancement of 4 ppm from the wildfires. A comparison of these enhancements with those from the Goddard Global Chemistry Transport model suggested that the modeled CO2 emissions from wildfires were underestimated by more than a factor of 2. A spiral-down validation performed at Moses Lake airport, Washington showed a bias of 0.1 ppm relative to in situ measurements and a standard deviation of 1 ppm in lidar XCO2 retrievals. The results show that future airborne campaigns and spaceborne missions with this type of lidar can improve estimates of CO2 emissions from wildfires and estimates of carbon fluxes globally.

Jianping Mao↗

Experimental Tests to Characterize the Behavior and Properties of IM7-8552 Composite

This document summarizes the test procedures for characterizing the quasi-static (QS), room temperature (RT) behavior of IM7/8552 unidirectional composite material. All testing reported in this document follow applicable ASTM1 test standards as closely as possible, with any deviations reported. The overall objective is to develop a framework for the creation of MAT213 material input for use in the LS-DYNA program (LSTC, 2016). Details of the MAT213 material model and its implementation are available publicly (Goldberg et al., 2015; Harrington et al., 2016; Hoffarth et al., 2016). However, the measured properties can be utilized by most composite impact models.

Mechanical Properties↗

Design of experiments to spectroscopically characterize radiation flow in stochastic media

Precise characterization of experimental radiation flow is required to validate the high energy density physics models, numerical methods, and codes that are used to simulate radiation-hydrodynamics phenomena such as thermal radiation transport in stochastic media. The Cassio code is used to simulate thermal radiation flow through inhomogeneous, stochastic-media-foam configurations containing optically thick clumps dispersed within an optically thin background aerogel. Cassio can model small inhomogeneous problems directly, but most problems require approximations to meet computer limitations on run-times and memory usage. Various examples of these approximations are methods that produce, in one calculation, an ensemble-averaged solution and associated standard deviation; reduced spatial dimensionality with approximate geometries; and full material homogenization with no geometric detail. Cassio simulations are used to design experiments at the OMEGA-60 Laser Facility that can measure the radiation flow using the spatially resolved COAX absorption spectroscopy diagnostic. The experimental platforms flow radiation through foam targets ranging from a background-only aerogel, to a single configuration of a specified stochastic medium, to a fully homogenized foam of the background and clump materials. Under constant total clump mass, larger clumps (here, larger than 10 μm diameter) will mix more slowly with the background such that the bulk radiation flow is faster than it would be in a fully homogenized material. The COAX platform can be used to infer temperature and density profiles in both the background material and clumps, simultaneously, and therefore to differentiate radiation flow in a range of stochastic and homogeneous media.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Measurement of the associated production of a top-antitop-quark pair and a Higgs boson decaying into a $b\bar{b}$ pair in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

This paper reports the measurement of Higgs boson production in association with a $t\bar{t}$ pair in the $H$ → $b\bar{b}$ decay channel. The analysis uses 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The final states with one or two electrons or muons are employed. An excess of events over the expected background is found with an observed (expected) significance of 4.6 (5.4) standard deviations. The $t\bar{t}$ $H$ cross-section is $σ_{t\bar{t} H}$ = $411^{+101}_{-92}$ fb = $411 ± 54$ (stat.) $^{+85}_{-75}$ (syst.) fb for a Higgs boson mass of 125.09 GeV, consistent with the prediction of the Standard Model of $507^{+35}_{-75}$ fb. The cross-section is also measured differentially in bins of the Higgs boson transverse momentum within the simplified template cross-section framework.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sleep, Sleepiness, and Performance Across Three In-Flight Bunk Rest Opportunities

Introduction: Airline pilots are required to take a rest break in a bunk during long-haul flights in an effort to reduce sleepiness during critical phases of flight. It is unclear, however, whether each rest break affords equal opportunity for sleep. We aimed to characterize sleep, sleepiness, and performance outcomes across three in-flight rest breaks during long-haul flights. Methods: Thirty-seven pilots wore actiwatches and completed sleep diaries for approximately two weeks while flying a variety of long-haul routes (n=126 flights). Self-reported in-flight bunk rest (BR) periods were used to set rest intervals and sleep was estimated within these intervals using actigraphy software (wake threshold set to medium). Pilots provided Karolinska Sleepiness Scale ratings (KSS) and performed a 5-minute psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) before landing. A linear mixed-effects model with participant included as a random effect and allowed to vary by intercept was used to assess differences between BR opportunities. Results : The majority (97%, n=122) of bunk rest periods contained sleep (as estimated by actigraphy). The mean (+/- standard deviation) sleep duration for the first, middle, and third BR opportunity was 152.8 (69.7), 149.2 (44.1), 125.2 (44.9) minutes, respectively. There was a significant effect of BR opportunity for sleep duration (F2,54 = 3.747, p=.03) and KSS (F2,44 = 7.869, p=.001). Bonferroni adjusted planned pairwise contrasts revealed that pilots using the third BR obtained significantly less sleep than in the first BR (p=.029). KSS ratings prior to landing were higher for the third BR compared to both the first (p=.001) and middle BR (p=.017). There were no significant differences for PVT speed or lapses (all p>05). Conclusion: These results suggest that the last rest break is associated with shorter sleep, lower alertness, and no differences in performance relative to the other rest breaks. Further analysis is required to determine whether the higher KSS ratings following the third rest break are associated with sleep inertia, or whether other factors may be involved.

sleepiness↗

Improved Orbit Determination of the Cygnss Satellites and its Application to Gnss-R Ocean Altimetry

The accuracy of spaceborne ocean surface altimetry depends on precise knowledge of the altimeter satellite orbit. Previous studies of the potential utility of CYGNSS GNSS Reflectometry (GNSS-R) measurements for ocean altimetry have identified its orbit error as a limiting factor. To address this, a recent firmware upgrade to the CYGNSS satellites have enabled the downlink of additional GPS raw measurements from its navigation receiver and increased numerical precision in open-loop GNSS-R tracking information. In this paper, we present improvements to the accuracy of both the orbit determination and the ocean surface height retrievals as a result of these recent upgrades. JPL’s GipsyX software is used to process 120 days of GPS navigation measurements for one of the 8 CYGNSS satellites. Incorporating high fidelity dynamic models and antenna group delay correction, daily orbit overlaps throughout the period show mean RMS differences of 3 cm in height, 7 cm in cross-track, and 10 cm in along-track. Applying these new orbits reduced the standard deviation of retrieved surface height anomalies. When spatially averaged, the sea surface height anomalies were reduced from 1.0 m to 0.8 m. Further improvements are expected using new ionospheric corrections and re-tracking methods currently in development.

Conrad, Alex↗

Seasonal Soil Freeze/Thaw Variability Across North America via Ensemble Land Surface Modeling

Land surface modeling provides the opportunity to investigate winter soil processes such as soil freezing and thawing over large domains. However, the variability in simulated winter soil characteristics among land surface models and forcing datasets is not well understood. In this study, a nine-member ensemble was employed to characterize the spatial and inter-annual variability of three winter soil characteristics, annual number of frozen days, annual minimum temperature and annual number of freeze-thaw cycles over North America during the water years 2010–2016. The ensemble, including three land surface model (JULES, Noah2.7.1 and Noah-MP) and three forcing datasets (ECMWF, GDAS and MERRA2), was developed through the Snow Ensemble Uncertainty Project (SEUP). In many regions, there was remarkably good agreement across the ensemble for the winter soil temperatures. However, the variability among the ensemble's annual number of frozen days, as quantified with standard deviation, exceeded 150 days at the northern Pacific coastline. While the differences among the ensemble members' annual minimum temperature were typically <3 °C, the differences exceeded 6 °C north of 50°N. The ensemble members generally agreed within one to three freeze-thaw cycles in mid latitude regions, Alaska, and the south and west coasts of the USA. High variability among the ensemble, more than six freeze-thaw cycles, occurred in the Great Plains, northern Pacific coastline, and along the Appalachian Mountains. Differences in winter soil temperature characteristics were more apparent among the LSMs rather than the meteorological forcing datasets. Except for maritime regions, the Noah2.7.1 members had the fewest annual number of frozen days and the least number of freeze-thaw cycles. Noah2.7.1 also had the coldest annual minimum temperatures except for ephemeral regions. Comparisons between in-situ observations and the SEUP estimates of winter soil characteristics revealed that the modeled frozen period was much longer than observed, that the modeled annual minimum temperatures were much colder than observed, and the modeled freeze-thaw cycles occurred more frequently than observed. Excluding the high latitude sites, the observed frozen period is less than two months with the minimum temperature above − 5 °C at most of the studied sites, while the ensemble members simulated, on average, a four month frozen period with − 10 °C minimum temperature. Errors in capturing snow during the accumulation period appear to impact differences in modeled versus observed soil temperature throughout the entire winter.

Soil freeze/thaw↗

Learning Topological Operations on Meshes with Application to Block Decomposition of Polygons

We present a learning based framework for mesh quality improvement on unstructured triangular and quadrilateral meshes. Our model learns to improve mesh quality according to a prescribed objective function purely via self-play reinforcement learning with no prior heuristics. The actions performed on the mesh are standard local and global element operations. The goal is to minimize the deviation of the node degrees from their ideal values, which in the case of interior vertices leads to a minimization of irregular nodes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Statistical Analysis of daily mean temperatures

Data of daily mean temperatures recorded at the Kennedy Center during the period of 1957-1977 were analyzed to forecast daily mean temperatures and their thirty-day moving averages for a period of ten to fifteen days in a given month. Since it is found that the standard deviation is linear in the mean, a logarithmic transformation of the data is used for finding an integrated moving average process IMA by the Box-Jenkins aproach. The first differences of the transformed data seem to fit a moving average model with parameter value 2, MA(2). The consideration of seasonality factor makes the fit worse.

Ross, D. C.↗

The downward flux of O(+) over the nightside of Venus

We have constructed a map of the downward flux of O(+) over the nightside of Venus at high and low solar activities through a combination of modeling and analysis of Pioneer Venus ion mass spectrometer data. O(+) density profiles were obtained for almost 40 inbound or outbound segments of orbits from the first 2 years of the mission and about 40 more in the recent reentry phase of the mission. We have determined the nearly linear relationship between the 0(+) maximum density and the downward O(+) flux for several solar zenith angles and local times by constructing models of the nightside ionosphere of Venus for a range of downward ion fluxes at the upper boundaries. We find that the largest downward fluxes occur near the terminators, and the fluxes fall off sharply toward the antisolar point. Although the standard deviations in the data are large, there is a suggestion of a local maximum near 155 deg, and the location of this maximum correlates fairly well with structure in the peak electron density as a function of solar zenith angle reported for the Pioneer Venus radio occulation experiment. The average downward ion flux is inferred to be about 1.7 x 10(exp 8)/sq cm/sec over the nightside hemisphere at solar maximum and a factor of 7 less at moderately low solar activity.

Brannon, J. J.↗

In situ measurements of BrO during AASE II

BrO measured from the NASA ER-2 during Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) II exhibited a mean value (for 20-minute averages) of 5.4 +/- 0.3 pptv, with a standard deviation of 3.1 pptv. Ratios of BrO to available inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)) show only slight increases in polar regions relative to midlatitudes. A comparison between observed latitudinal and diurnal variations of this same ratio and that calculated by photochemical models shows reasonable agreement in behavior, but significant discrepancies in magnitude. It is unclear whether this difference is due to errors in measurements, models or both.

Avallone, L. M.↗

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗

Statistical imprints of wave-like dark matter on multiply-imaged galaxies in strong cluster lenses from JWST

Wave-like dark matter ($ψ$DM) is an elusive dark matter (DM) candidate. The model, often also called fuzzy or ultralight DM, proposes that DM is an extremely light ($m\sim10^{-22}$ eV) boson and thereby has a kpc-scale de Broglie wavelength. Hence, interference of DM gives rise to sub-galactic density fluctuations that can be studied with strong gravitational lensing. In this paper, we use the residual power spectrum, $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$, as a probe of $ψ$DM, which quantifies deviations from smooth lensing predictions, measured from multiply-imaged galaxies in strong cluster lenses. The key idea is that imprinted in these deviations are lensing distortions from DM substructure, which can be harnessed statistically to distinguish among DM theories. We simulate JWST-quality mock observations of strong gravitational lensing in galaxy clusters, modeling line-of-sight DM substructure within $ψ$DM and the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigms. Using mock deep observations ($\sim$ 20 hours), we find that $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$ is sensitive to both $ψ$DM particle mass and fluctuation amplitude, and can distinguish $ψ$DM fluctuations from CDM subhalos. We demonstrate that $\mathrm{P}_δ(k)$ can be measured directly from data by modeling the smooth lensing with a local Curved Arc Basis formalism. With realistic modeling systematics, we find a statistically significant separation between $ψ$DM and CDM across $1 \lesssim k \lesssim 11\,\mathrm{kpc}^{-1}$ -- offering an independent probe of the wave-like nature of DM complementary to existing constraints.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗

Effects of vegetation canopy on the radar backscattering coefficient

Airborne L- and C-band scatterometer data, taken over both vegetation-covered and bare fields, were systematically analyzed and theoretically reproduced, using a recently developed model for calculating radar backscattering coefficients of rough soil surfaces. The results show that the model can reproduce the observed angular variations of radar backscattering coefficient quite well via a least-squares fit method. Best fits to the data provide estimates of the statistical properties of the surface roughness, which is characterized by two parameters: the standard deviation of surface height, and the surface correlation length. In addition, the processes of vegetation attenuation and volume scattering require two canopy parameters, the canopy optical thickness and a volume scattering factor. Canopy parameter values for individual vegetation types, including alfalfa, milo and corn, were also determined from the best-fit results. The uncertainties in the scatterometer data were also explored.

Mo, T.↗

Evaluation of the Danish Aerospace Corporation Portable Pulmonary Function System

A research project designed to investigate changes in maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) during and following long duration flight on the International Space Station (ISS) has recently been completed. The device used to measure VO2 on board ISS, the Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS) manufactured by the Danish Aerospace Corporation (DAC), is based on previous-generation devices manufactured by DAC, but the PPFS has not been validated for analyzing metabolic gases or measuring cardiac output (Qc). The purpose of the present evaluation is to compare PPFS metabolic gas analysis measurements to measurements obtained using a clinically-validated system (ParvoMedics TrueOne(c) 2400 system; Parvo). In addition, Qc data collected with the PPFS were compared to Qc measurements from echocardiography. METHODS: Ten subjects completed three cycle exercise tests to maximal exertion. The first test was conducted to determine each subject's VO2max and set the work rates for the second and third (comparison) tests. The protocol for the two comparison tests consisted of three 5-minute stages designed to elicit 25%, 50%, and 75% VO2max (based upon results from the initial test), followed by 1-minute stages of increasing work rate (25 watt/minute) until the subject reached maximal effort. During one of the two comparison tests, metabolic gases and Qc were assessed with the PPFS; metabolic gases and Qc were assessed with the Parvo and by echocardiography, respectively, during the other test. The order of the comparison tests was counterbalanced. VO2max and maximal work rate during the comparison tests were compared using t tests. Mixed-effects regression modeling was used to analyze submaximal data. RESULTS: All of the data were within normal physiological ranges. The PPFS-measured values for VO2max were 6% lower than values obtained with the Parvo (PPFS: 3.11 +/- 0.75 L/min; Parvo: 3.32 +/- 0.87 L/min; mean +/- standard deviation; P = 0.02); this difference is probably due to flow restriction imposed by the PPFS Qc accessories. Submaximal VO2 values were slightly lower when measured with the PPFS, although differences were not physiologically relevant. The PPFS-measured values of submaximal carbon dioxide production (VCO2) were lower than the data obtained from Parvo, which could be attributed to lower fractions of expired carbon dioxide measured by the PPFS. The PPFS Qc values tended to be lower than echocardiography-derived values. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study indicate a need to further examine the PPFS and to better quantify its reproducibility; however, none of the findings of the current evaluation indicate that the PPFS needs to be replaced or modified.

Portable Pulmonary Function System (PPFS)↗

Comparison of OVERFLOW Computational and Experimental Results for a Blunt Mars Entry Vehicle Concept during Supersonic Retropropulsion

Simulations of unsteady supersonic retropropulsion (SRP) flow over a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) blunt-body vehicle were performed using the OVERFLOW Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver. High-fidelity flow solver techniques, including Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) turbulence modeling and Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR), were employed to obtain improved realism in CFD predictions. Simulation conditions and geometry configurations were designed to match specific runs in the Descent System Study (DSS) wind tunnel testing (WTT) campaign. The accuracy of each simulation is assessed by direct comparison to experimental data. Comparisons of computational predictions of the SRP flowfield and bow shock shape to experimental schlieren imaging show reasonable prediction of mean shock shape, with approximately 10% similarity in shock standoff distance for selected conditions, as well as similarity in local, time-varying fluctuations of the shock-plume interaction. Comparisons of discrete measurements of surface pressure coefficient (Cp) indicate CFD accuracy within approximately 10% of the experiment across the majority of the model heatshield, with larger variations at some of the heatshield edge locations with stronger flow unsteadiness. Simulated unsteadiness of these chaotic flows, which were highly dynamic and multi-modal, was shown to be within 20-40% of experimentally-measured pressure standard deviation (SD) for the majority of the sampled locations.

Supersonic Retropropulsion↗