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Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Bretherton, Francis↗

Source Decomposition of Eddy-Covariance CO 2 Flux Measurements for Evaluating a High-Resolution Urban CO 2 Emissions Inventory

We present the comparison of source-partitioned CO2 flux measurements with a high-resolution urban CO 2 emissions inventory (Hestia). Tower-based measurements of CO and 14 C are used to partition net CO 2 flux measurements into fossil and biogenic components. A flux footprint model is used to quantify spatial variation in flux measurements. We compare the daily cycle and spatial structure of Hestia and eddy-covariance derived fossil fuel CO 2 emissions on a seasonal basis. Hestia inventory emissions exceed the eddy-covariance measured emissions by 0.36 µ mol m −2 s −1 (3.2%) in the cold season and 0.62 µ mol m −2 s −1 (9.1%) in the warm season. The daily cycle of fluxes in both products matches closely, with correlations in the hourly mean fluxes of 0.86 (cold season) and 0.93 (warm season). The spatially averaged fluxes also agree in each season and a persistent spatial pattern in the differences during both seasons that may suggest a bias related to residential heating emissions. In addition, in the cold season, the magnitudes of average daytime biological uptake and nighttime respiration at this flux site are approximately 15% and 27% of the mean fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over the same time period, contradicting common assumptions of no significant biological CO 2 exchange in northern cities during winter. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of using trace gas ratios to adapt eddy-covariance flux measurements in urban environments for disaggregating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and urban ecosystem fluxes at high spatial and temporal resolution.

eddy-covariance flux measurements↗

Ecosystem Impacts of Woody Encroachment In Texas: A Spatial Analysis Using AVIRIS

Woody encroachment, the increase of woody plant density relative to herbaceous vegetation, has been documented in drylands of Texas as well as worldwide (Archer 1994, Harrington and Harman 1995, Moleele et al. 2002). Over-grazing, fire suppression and climate change are implicated in the shift from open grasslands to ecosystems now populated by trees and shrubs (Scholes and Archer 1997, Archer et al. 2001), such as Prosopis glandulosa var. glandulosa (honey mesquite) in north Texas (Teague et al. 1997, Ansley et al. 2001, Asner et al. 2003a). Several studies have examined changes in ecosystem properties accompanying woody vegetation encroachment in the Southwest U.S., with research focused on increases in plant and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stores (Hoffman and Jackson 2000, Asner et al. 2003a), isotopic shifts in these pools (Boutton 1999, Archer et al. 2001), and increases in N cycling rates (Rundel et al. 1982, Hibbard et al. 2001). However, little is known regarding the impact of woody encroachment on N trace gas emissions from dryland regions such as Texas. NOx is produced in the soil during the processes of nitrification and denitrification (Firestone and Davidson 1989). The total N efflux from soils is most directly influenced by the internal cycling of N, which at a regionalscale, is controlled by the inputs and availability of N from vegetation via litterfall and subsequent decomposition (Robertson et al. 1989). Although plot-scale studies are critical to understanding controls over N oxide emissions, regionalization of the measurements is impeded by spatial variation in the factors contributing most to N cycling processes: soil properties (affecting soil moisture regimes and N stocks) and vegetation cover (affecting litter inputs and N uptake). While broad patterns in ecosystem structure and vegetation composition co-vary with general patterns of trace gas emissions (Matson 1997), there is no easily measured index of N availability that can be applied for regional-scale studies of N oxide fluxes. Remote sensing is arguably the only approach available to develop a spatially-explicit understanding of ecosystem processes. More specifically, remotely detectable spatial patterns in the distal controls over soil N properties, such as vegetation cover, land use and soil type (Robertson et al. 1989), should be exploited for regional studies of N oxide emissions. The woody encroachment phenomenon provides an opportunity to test the strength of the relationship between N oxide emissions and those factors controlling the fluxes that can be remotely measured. If such linkages can be firmly established, and if the spatial pattern of distal controls is relevant, then the combination of field measurements and remote sensing offers to improve regional-scale N oxide estimates. The paper presents the utility of linking field based sampling of soil NOx emissions with very high resolution remote sensing estimates of woody vegetation cover from the NASA AVIRIS, Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (Green et al. 1998, Asner and Green 2001) and automated spectral mixture analysis (Asner and Lobell 2000, Asner and Heidebrecht 2002) that provide a means to spatially extrapolate soil NOx emissions to the regional scale.

Martin, Roberta E.↗

Using SpF to Achieve Petascale for Legacy Pseudospectral Applications

Pseudospectral (PS) methods possess a number of characteristics (e.g., efficiency, accuracy, natural boundary conditions) that are extremely desirable for dynamo models. Unfortunately, dynamo models based upon PS methods face a number of daunting challenges, which include exposing additional parallelism, leveraging hardware accelerators, exploiting hybrid parallelism, and improving the scalability of global memory transposes. Although these issues are a concern for most models, solutions for PS methods tend to require far more pervasive changes to underlying data and control structures. Further, improvements in performance in one model are difficult to transfer to other models, resulting in significant duplication of effort across the research community. We have developed an extensible software framework for pseudospectral methods called SpF that is intended to enable extreme scalability and optimal performance. Highlevel abstractions provided by SpF unburden applications of the responsibility of managing domain decomposition and load balance while reducing the changes in code required to adapt to new computing architectures. The key design concept in SpF is that each phase of the numerical calculation is partitioned into disjoint numerical kernels that can be performed entirely inprocessor. The granularity of domain decomposition provided by SpF is only constrained by the datalocality requirements of these kernels. SpF builds on top of optimized vendor libraries for common numerical operations such as transforms, matrix solvers, etc., but can also be configured to use open source alternatives for portability. SpF includes several alternative schemes for global data redistribution and is expected to serve as an ideal testbed for further research into optimal approaches for different network architectures. In this presentation, we will describe our experience in porting legacy pseudospectral models, MoSST and DYNAMO, to use SpF as well as present preliminary performance results provided by the improved scalability.

DYNAMO↗

Second Generation RLV Space Vehicle Concept

NASA has a long history of conducting development programs and projects in a consistent fashion. Systems Engineering within those programs and projects has also followed a given method outlined by such documents as the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook. The relatively new NASA Space Launch Initiative (SLI) is taking a new approach to developing a space vehicle, with innovative management methods as well as new Systems Engineering processes. With the program less than a year into its life cycle, the efficacy of these new processes has yet to be proven or disproven. At $776M for phase 1, SLI represents a major portion of the NASA focus; however, the new processes being incorporated are not reflected in the training provided by NASA to its engineers. The NASA Academy of Program and Project Leadership (APPL) offers core classes in program and project management and systems engineering to NASA employees with the purpose of creating a "knowledge community where ideas, skills, and experiences are exchanged to increase each other's capacity for strong leadership". The SLI program is, in one sense, a combination of a conceptual design program and a technology program. The program as a whole doesn't map into the generic systems engineering project cycle as currently, and for some time, taught. For example, the NASA APPL Systems Engineering training course teaches that the "first step in developing an architecture is to define the external boundaries of the system", which will require definition of the interfaces with other systems and the next step will be to "define all the components that make up the next lower level of the system hierarchy" where fundamental requirements are allocated to each component. Whereas, the SLI technology risk reduction approach develops architecture subsystem technologies prior to developing architectures. The higher level architecture requirements are not allowed to fully develop and undergo decomposition and allocation down to the subsystems before the subsystems must develop allocated requirements based on the highest level of requirements. In the vernacular of the project cycles prior to the mid 1990's, the architecture definition portion of the program appears to be at a generic Phase A stage, while the subsystems are operating at Phase B. Even the management structure of the SLI program is innovative in its approach to Systems Engineering and is not reflected in the APPL training modules. The SLI program has established a Systems Engineering office as an office separate from the architecture development or the subsystem technology development, while that office does have representatives within these other offices. The distributed resources of the Systems Engineering Office are co-located with the respective Project Offices. This template is intended to provide systems engineering as an integrated function at the Program Level. the program management of SLI and the MAT agree that "program/project managers and the systems engineering team must work closely together towards the single objective of delivering quality products that meet the customer needs". This paper will explore the differences between the methods being taught by NASA, which represent decades of ideas, and those currently in practice in SLI. Time will tell if the innovation employed by SLI will prove to be the model of the future. For now, it is suggested that the training of the present exercise the flexibility of recognizing the new processes employed by a major new NASA program.

Bailey, Michelle↗

SpF: Enabling Petascale Performance for Pseudospectral Dynamo Models

Pseudospectral (PS) methods possess a number of characteristics (e.g., efficiency, accuracy, natural boundary conditions) that are extremely desirable for dynamo models. Unfortunately, dynamo models based upon PS methods face a number of daunting challenges, which include exposing additional parallelism, leveraging hardware accelerators, exploiting hybrid parallelism, and improving the scalability of global memory transposes. Although these issues are a concern for most models, solutions for PS methods tend to require far more pervasive changes to underlying data and control structures. Further, improvements in performance in one model are difficult to transfer to other models, resulting in significant duplication of effort across the research community.We have developed an extensible software framework for pseudospectral methods called SpF that is intended to enable extreme scalability and optimal performance. High-level abstractions provided by SpF unburden applications of the responsibility of managing domain decomposition and load balance while reducing the changes in code required to adapt to new computing architectures. The key design concept in SpF is that each phase of the numerical calculation is partitioned into disjoint numerical kernels that can be performed entirely in-processor. The granularity of domain-decomposition provided by SpF is only constrained by the data-locality requirements of these kernels. SpF builds on top of optimized vendor libraries for common numerical operations such as transforms, matrix solvers, etc., but can also be configured to use open source alternatives for portability. SpF includes several alternative schemes for global data redistribution and is expected to serve as an ideal testbed for further research into optimal approaches for different network architectures.In this presentation, we will describe the basic architecture of SpF as well as preliminary performance data and experience with adapting legacy dynamo codes. We will conclude with a discussion of planned extensions to SpF that will provide pseudospectral applications with additional flexibility with regard to time integration, linear solvers, and discretization in the radial direction.

Pseudospectral (PS)↗

Numerical Investigation and Optimization of a Flushwall Injector for Scramjet Applications at Hypervelocity Flow Conditions

An investigation utilizing Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS) was performed in order to demonstrate the use of design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE) methods in Sandia’s DAKOTA software package for surrogate modeling and optimization. These methods were applied to a flow- path fueled with an interdigitated flushwall injector suitable for scramjet applications at hyper- velocity conditions and ascending along a constant dynamic pressure flight trajectory. The flight Mach number, duct height, spanwise width, and injection angle were the design variables selected to maximize two objective functions: the thrust potential and combustion efficiency. Because the RAS of this case are computationally expensive, surrogate models are used for optimization. To build a surrogate model a RAS database is created. The sequence of the design variables comprising the database were generated using a Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. A methodology was also developed to automatically build geometries and generate structured grids for each design point. The ensuing RAS analysis generated the simulation database from which the two objective functions were computed using a one-dimensionalization (1D) of the three-dimensional simulation data. The data were fitted using four surrogate models: an artificial neural network (ANN), a cubic polynomial, a quadratic polynomial, and a Kriging model. Variance-based decomposition showed that both objective functions were primarily driven by changes in the duct height. Multiobjective design optimization was performed for all four surrogate models via a genetic algorithm method. Optimal solutions were obtained at the upper and lower bounds of the flight Mach number range. The Kriging model predicted an optimal solution set that exhibited high values for both objective functions. Additionally, three challenge points were selected to assess the designs on the Pareto fronts. Further sampling among the designs of the Pareto fronts may be required to lower the surrogate model errors and perform more accurate surrogate-model-based optimization.

Shenoy, Rajiv R.↗

Decentralization, stabilization, and estimation of large-scale linear systems

In this short paper we consider three closely related aspects of large-scale systems: decentralization, stabilization, and estimation. A method is proposed to decompose a large linear system into a number of interconnected subsystems with decentralized (scalar) inputs or outputs. The procedure is preliminary to the hierarchic stabilization and estimation of linear systems and is performed on the subsystem level. A multilevel control scheme based upon the decomposition-aggregation method is developed for stabilization of input-decentralized linear systems Local linear feedback controllers are used to stabilize each decoupled subsystem, while global linear feedback controllers are utilized to minimize the coupling effect among the subsystems. Systems stabilized by the method have a tolerance to a wide class of nonlinearities in subsystem coupling and high reliability with respect to structural perturbations. The proposed output-decentralization and stabilization schemes can be used directly to construct asymptotic state estimators for large linear systems on the subsystem level. The problem of dimensionality is resolved by constructing a number of low-order estimators, thus avoiding a design of a single estimator for the overall system.

Siljak, D. D.↗

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

On the use of ANN interconnection weights in optimal structural design

The present paper describes the use of interconnection weights of a multilayer, feedforward network, to extract information pertinent to the mapping space that the network is assumed to represent. In particular, these weights can be used to determine an appropriate network architecture, and an adequate number of training patterns (input-output pairs) have been used for network training. The weight analysis also provides an approach to assess the influence of each input parameter on a selected output component. The paper shows the significance of this information in decomposition driven optimal design.

Hajela, P.↗

The Conceptual Design of an Integrated Nuclearhydrogen Production Plant Using the Sulfur Cycle Water Decomposition System

A hydrogen production plant was designed based on a hybrid electrolytic-thermochemical process for decomposing water. The sulfur cycle water decomposition system is driven by a very high temperature nuclear reactor that provides 1,283 K helium working gas. The plant is sized to approximately ten million standard cubic meters per day of electrolytically pure hydrogen and has an overall thermal efficiently of 45.2 percent. The economics of the plant were evaluated using ground rules which include a 1974 cost basis without escalation, financing structure and other economic factors. Taking into account capital, operation, maintenance and nuclear fuel cycle costs, the cost of product hydrogen was calculated at $5.96/std cu m for utility financing. These values are significantly lower than hydrogen costs from conventional water electrolysis plants and competitive with hydrogen from coal gasification plants.

Farbman, G. H.↗

Acoustooptic linear algebra processors - Architectures, algorithms, and applications

Architectures, algorithms, and applications for systolic processors are described with attention to the realization of parallel algorithms on various optical systolic array processors. Systolic processors for matrices with special structure and matrices of general structure, and the realization of matrix-vector, matrix-matrix, and triple-matrix products and such architectures are described. Parallel algorithms for direct and indirect solutions to systems of linear algebraic equations and their implementation on optical systolic processors are detailed with attention to the pipelining and flow of data and operations. Parallel algorithms and their optical realization for LU and QR matrix decomposition are specifically detailed. These represent the fundamental operations necessary in the implementation of least squares, eigenvalue, and SVD solutions. Specific applications (e.g., the solution of partial differential equations, adaptive noise cancellation, and optimal control) are described to typify the use of matrix processors in modern advanced signal processing.

Casasent, D.↗

Low temperature phase transformations in the metallic phases of iron and stony-iron meteorites

The nickel content and the structure of kamacite and decomposed taenite (clear taenite 1, CT-1; the cloudy zone, CZ; and clear taenite 2, CT-2) in the metallic phases of meteorites were determined using X-ray microanalysis techniques in the AEM. The kamacite near the CT-1 interface was found to contain about 4 wt pct Ni. The CT-1 structure contains 51.4-45.6 wt pct Ni; it is ordered FeNi with the L1(0) superstructure. The CZ structure consists of two phases: a globular phase (ordered FeNi containing 50.9 wt pct Ni) and a surrounding honeycomb martensitic phase containing 11.7 wt pct Ni. The CT-2 was found in all of the iron meteorite groups studied and in the pallasites, but not in the mesosiderites. Based on the preliminary evidence, this region is believed to be ordered Fe3Ni. Possible mechanisms for the decomposition of taenite are discussed.

Reuter, K. B.↗

High-performance parallel analysis of coupled problems for aircraft propulsion

Applications are described of high-performance parallel, computation for the analysis of complete jet engines, considering its multi-discipline coupled problem. The coupled problem involves interaction of structures with gas dynamics, heat conduction and heat transfer in aircraft engines. The methodology issues addressed include: consistent discrete formulation of coupled problems with emphasis on coupling phenomena; effect of partitioning strategies, augmentation and temporal solution procedures; sensitivity of response to problem parameters; and methods for interfacing multiscale discretizations in different single fields. The computer implementation issues addressed include: parallel treatment of coupled systems; domain decomposition and mesh partitioning strategies; data representation in object-oriented form and mapping to hardware driven representation, and tradeoff studies between partitioning schemes and fully coupled treatment.

Felippa, C. A.↗

Stability of Actinolite on Venus

Venus currently has a hostile surface environment with temperatures of ~460 ºC, pres-sures near 92 bars, and an atmosphere composed of super critical CO2 hosting a myriad of other potentially reactive gases (e.g., SO2, HCl, HF). However, it has been proposed that its surface may not have always been so harsh. Models suggest there may have been billions of years of clement conditions allowing an Earth-like environment with liquid water oceans. If such conditions existed, it is possible Venus formed a similar array of hydrous or aqueous minerals as seen on other planets with liquid surface water (e.g., Mars, Earth). Based on thermodynamic modeling, many of these phases would not be stable under the current atmospheric conditions on Venus, dehydrating due to the high temperatures and low concentration of H2O in the atmosphere. However, the rate of decomposition of these phases may allow them to remain present on the surface over geologic time. For example, experiments on the reaction rate of tremolite (Ca2Mg5Si8O22(OH)2) show a 50% decomposition time of 2.7 Gyr for micrometer sized grains in unreactive atmospheres (i.e., without SO2) at 740 K, and a 50% decomposition time of 70 Gyr for crystals several millimeters to centimeters in size. If hydrous minerals can remain on the surface of Venus over geologic time, it has implications for our detection of evidence of these past environments, and also for the overall water budget of the planet. If after surficial dehydration the planet was able to still store water in its crust, possible processes such as subduction or metamorphism could still have operated using stored water long after liquid surface water evaporated. Several previous studies have focused on experimental investigations of mineral stability on Venus. In particular, the works of studied the decomposition rate of tremolite under conditions relevant to Venus. As their focus was on decomposition of the mineral due to lack of water in the atmosphere, their experiments were undertaken using only CO2 or N2 gas at atmospheric pressure. Re-cent experiments have examined reactivity of other minerals with the Venusian atmosphere using more complex gas compositions at similar pressures to those seen on Venus. These studies show reaction of silicate minerals with atmospheric components on relatively short timescales (i.e., on the order of days). The reported reactions of silicate materials in both studies produced iron oxides, Ca sulfates, and Na sulfates. These ions are present in many amphiboles, and Ca was proposed by Johnson and Fegley to potentially have an important role in the decomposition mechanism for tremolite, with the Ca-O bond being the first to break during decomposition. The potential involvement of Ca in both processes raises the question of whether or not the reaction to form a secondary mineral phase will influence the rate of amphibole break-down (e.g., discussion in for tremolite). Additionally, reaction of Ca with atmospheric gases may result in a different secondary mineral assemblage than simple amphibole decomposition, which will need to be recognized when searching for evidence of past hydrated minerals on the Venusian surface. In order to understand the effect of this reaction on the overall preservation potential of amphibole on the surface of Venus, we are conducting experiments in both reactive and nonreactive atmospheres using the mineral actinolite (Ca2(Mg,Fe)5Si8O22(OH)2), an amphibole with similar crystal structure to tremolite that contains both Ca and Fe.

Santos, A. R.↗

An Exploratory Study of Cost Engineering in Axiomatic Design: Creation of the Cost Model Based on an FR-DP Map

Large complex projects cost large sums of money throughout their life cycle for a variety of reasons and causes. For such large programs, the credible estimation of the project cost, a quick assessment of the cost of making changes, and the management of the project budget with effective cost reduction determine the viability of the project. Cost engineering that deals with these issues requires a rigorous method and systematic processes. This paper introduces a logical framework to a&e effective cost engineering. The framework is built upon Axiomatic Design process. The structure in the Axiomatic Design process provides a good foundation to closely tie engineering design and cost information together. The cost framework presented in this paper is a systematic link between the functional domain (FRs), physical domain (DPs), cost domain (CUs), and a task/process-based model. The FR-DP map relates a system s functional requirements to design solutions across all levels and branches of the decomposition hierarchy. DPs are mapped into CUs, which provides a means to estimate the cost of design solutions - DPs - from the cost of the physical entities in the system - CUs. The task/process model describes the iterative process ot-developing each of the CUs, and is used to estimate the cost of CUs. By linking the four domains, this framework provides a superior traceability from requirements to cost information.

Lee, Taesik↗

California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections↗

An Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) for modal parameter identification and model reduction

A method, called the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA), is developed for modal parameter identification and model reduction of dynamic systems from test data. A new approach is introduced in conjunction with the singular value decomposition technique to derive the basic formulation of minimum order realization which is an extended version of the Ho-Kalman algorithm. The basic formulation is then transformed into modal space for modal parameter identification. Two accuracy indicators are developed to quantitatively identify the system modes and noise modes. For illustration of the algorithm, examples are shown using simulation data and experimental data for a rectangular grid structure.

Juang, J. N.↗