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DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Dynamic Force Coefficients for an Additively Manufactured Hermetic Squeeze Film Bearing Support Damper Utilizing a Pass-Through Channel

Abstract The following paper presents breakthrough experimental results for a new hermetic squeeze film damper (HSFD) concept that is integrally designed within an externally pressurized tilting-pad radial gas bearing support. The flexibly damped gas bearing module was designed for a 7.2″ (183 mm) diameter shaft and fabricated using direct metal laser melting (DMLM); also known as additive manufacturing. The bearing and HSFD were sized based on ongoing studies for oil-free supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power turbines in the 8.5 MW–10 MW power range. The development of the new damper concept was motivated by past dynamic testing on HSFD, which generated frequency-dependent stiffness and damping force coefficients. In efforts to eliminate the frequency dependency, a new HSFD architecture was conceived that adds accumulator volumes and a pass-through channel to previously conceived HSFD flow network designs. The other motivation for the work is the need to develop a cost-effective and reliable oil-free bearing technology that is scalable to large power turbomachinery applications. There were several objectives for the following work. The first objective was to successfully design and fabricate a single piece bearing-damper using additive manufacturing, while dimensionally controlling critical design features. The paper discusses the manufacturing steps and shows cut-ups that reveal adequate clearance control capability with internal damper clearances. The second objective was to perform experimental testing with the new HSFD design in efforts to extract stiffness and damping coefficients for excitation frequencies within 20–160 Hz and peak vibration amplitudes between 0.25 mils (6.35 microns) to 1 mil (25.4 microns). The test results for a single HSFD bearing module indicated that the design modifications to the HSFD architecture were successful in eliminating nearly all the frequency dependencies for the stiffness force coefficient. The dynamic tests yielded a stiffness coefficient that varied between 112 klb/in. (19.6 MN/m) and 96 klb/in. (16.8 MN/m). The damping force coefficient however, exhibited relatively more variation with frequency with values residing between 175 lb-s/in. (31 kN-s/m) to 214 lb-s/in. (37 kN-s/m). Finally, the paper advances a three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model using transient finite element analysis (FEA) coupled to a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The FSI analysis performed between 20 Hz and 80 Hz was used to predict the stiffness and damping of the HSFD using a quarter-section model of the damper. The FSI analysis was able to support test results by showing only a 6–7.4% change in the magnitude of force coefficients. Stiffness predictions agree reasonably well with experiments whereas damping is underpredicted.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting oxidation damage in ultra high-temperature borides: A machine learning approach

Ultra-high temperature (UHT) borides are ceramics materials with melting points above 3000 °C for structural applications in extreme environments. However, at temperatures exceeding 1600 °C and under oxidizing conditions, the material suffers from detrimental degradation. Optimized design and performance of diboride materials under such extreme conditions requires filling the missing composition-microstructure-oxidation gap. This study proposes a computational data-driven framework to connect the processing and microstructure of Ultra-high temperature borides with the oxidation damage. Random Forest Regressor (RFR) model is adopted to forecast the oxide scale thickness developed after oxidation testing based on processing variables and microstructural features. The model trained on a dataset consisting of 107 samples of experimental data extracted from the literature aims to predict oxidation damage. With proper data manipulation and fine model tuning, the predictor could forecast the oxide scale thickness of UHT diborides with a Mean Absolute Error of 37.45 μm and an R-square of 0.83. This model could be used as a high-throughput scheme to design and test new UHT diborides materials computationally. Furthermore, a model with larger composition capabilities could also be developed in the future as more experimental data become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of a High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium Tri-Structural Isotropic Critical Experiment for Advanced Reactor Validation

High-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel is a key component of many small modular reactor designs. Critical experiments are an important way to understand the neutronic performance of systems by obtaining nuclear data validations through measurements. Data reduce uncertainty and risk by showing that systems respond as predicted to changes such as temperature, subsequently advancing the overall technology readiness level of the materials within. Numerous critical experiments have been performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) operated by Los Alamos National Laboratory at the Nevada National Security Site since it became operational in 2011. However, the first experiment with HALEU fuel did not occur until 2024. Through extensive engineering, the experiment described in this paper was successfully designed and executed for the Comet vertical lift assembly at NCERC to perform measurements with HALEU tri-structural isotropic fuel that will assist in validation of nuclear data and computational modeling of small modular reactors for years to come.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Performance of Heterostructural TaC/AlGaN Schottky Diodes Based on First Principles Electronic Structure Properties

Advances in ultra-wide bandgap materials, such as high Al-content AlxGa1-xN (AlGaN), are essential for next generation power electronics, but the requirement for lattice matched substrates is currently a significant obstacle. Recently, conductive TaC has emerged as a promising virtual substrate for AlGaN heteroepitaxy, with wurtzite (0001) AlxGa1-xN lattice-matched to rocksalt (111) TaC at x ~ 0.5. Thus, understanding and controlling the electronic properties of the TaC/AlGaN interface is key for developing technological applications based on TaC/AlGaN devices. Using density functional theory and electronic structure calculations, we here investigate TaC/Al0.5Ga0.5N interfaces, where we include explicit alloy models in the slab calculations. We predict the Schottky barrier height and the electric field discontinuity resulting from interface charges. Considering all possible combinations of (Ta, C) substrate termination, (Al/Ga, N) nucleation, and (Al/Ga, N) polarity, we construct a chemical potential phase diagram to identify the stable interfaces that can be accessed through variation of the synthesis conditions. The predicted interface electronic properties are implemented in device performance simulations to demonstrate a practical design for a strain-free, high-efficiency TaC/AlGaN Schottky diode with a low barrier height and without interface charges, underscoring the potential of TaC as a substrate for ultra-wide bandgap devices.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting potential adverse events using safety data from marketed drugs

Abstract Background While clinical trials are considered the gold standard for detecting adverse events, often these trials are not sufficiently powered to detect difficult to observe adverse events. We developed a preliminary approach to predict 135 adverse events using post-market safety data from marketed drugs. Adverse event information available from FDA product labels and scientific literature for drugs that have the same activity at one or more of the same targets, structural and target similarities, and the duration of post market experience were used as features for a classifier algorithm. The proposed method was studied using 54 drugs and a probabilistic approach of performance evaluation using bootstrapping with 10,000 iterations. Results Out of 135 adverse events, 53 had high probability of having high positive predictive value. Cross validation showed that 32% of the model-predicted safety label changes occurred within four to nine years of approval (median: six years). Conclusions This approach predicts 53 serious adverse events with high positive predictive values where well-characterized target-event relationships exist. Adverse events with well-defined target-event associations were better predicted compared to adverse events that may be idiosyncratic or related to secondary target effects that were poorly captured. Further enhancement of this model with additional features, such as target prediction and drug binding data, may increase accuracy.

Daluwatte, Chathuri↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mesh and model requirements for capturing deep-stall aerodynamics in low-Mach-number flows

Here, this work presents a comprehensive computational fluid dynamics investigation of the effects of grid resolution and turbulence-model choice for capturing the unsteady three-dimensional aerodynamic performance of NACA 0012 and 0021 airfoils, with specific focus on the deep-stall regime. At high angles of attack (α), wind turbine blades routinely experience vortex-induced vibrations, which can cause significant structural damages. Accurate predictions of post-stall aerodynamics can identify the frequencies at which such vibrations maybe triggered. In this context, the NACA 0012 airfoil simulations are conducted at a chord-based Reynolds number, Re c =2×10 6 , with the k-ω Shear-Stress Transport Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES) hybrid RANS-Large Eddy Simulation turbulence models. The effect of mesh resolution both in the wall-normal and spanwise directions is investigated. Only the IDDES model with a minimum spanwise resolution of 24 cells per chord length correctly predicts the aerodynamic forces. Spectral analysis shows the peak primary shedding frequency at α=30°, which signifies the end of the stall region. In the post-stall regime, both lift and drag frequencies drop asymptotically with increasing α. The Strouhal number, based on normalised chord length, remains nearly constant in this region. Based on this study, NACA 0021 airfoil runs are performed with IDDES for Re c =2.7×10 5 and 2.0×10 6 on the finest wall-normal mesh and three spanwise grids. Simulations conducted on the finer spanwise grids demonstrate grid independence and show good agreement with experiments. The effect of varying Rec on the airfoil frequency statistics is investigated. Additionally, comparison studies are presented to investigate the impact of airfoil thickness on the frequency content at Re c =2.0×10 6 . The results from the study provide guidance on the choice of mesh resolution with the IDDES model to accurately capture aerodynamic quantities for complex industrial applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

CFM-ID 4.0 – a web server for accurate MS-based metabolite identification

The CFM-ID 4.0 web server (https://cfmid.wishartlab.com) is an online tool for predicting, annotating and interpreting tandem mass (MS/MS) spectra of small molecules. It is specifically designed to assist researchers pursuing studies in metabolomics, exposomics and analytical chemistry. More specifically, CFM-ID 4.0 supports the: 1) prediction of electrospray ionization quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectra (ESI-QTOF-MS/MS) for small molecules over multiple collision energies (10 eV, 20 eV, and 40 eV); 2) annotation of ESI-QTOF-MS/MS spectra given the structure of the compound; and 3) identification of a small molecule that generated a given ESI-QTOF-MS/MS spectrum at one or more collision energies. The CFM-ID 4.0 web server makes use of a substantially improved MS fragmentation algorithm, a much larger database of experimental and in silico predicted MS/MS spectra and improved scoring methods to offer more accurate MS/MS spectral prediction and MS/MS-based compound identification. Compared to earlier versions of CFM-ID, this new version has an MS/MS spectral prediction performance that is ~22% better and a compound identification accuracy that is ~35% better on a standard (CASMI 2016) testing dataset. CFM-ID 4.0 also features a neutral loss function that allows users to identify similar or substituent compounds where no match can be found using CFM-ID’s regular MS/MS-to-compound identification utility. Finally, the CFM-ID 4.0 web server now offers a much more refined user interface that is easier to use, supports molecular formula identification (from MS/MS data), provides more interactively viewable data (including proposed fragment ion structures) and displays MS mirror plots for comparing predicted with observed MS/MS spectra. These improvements should make CFM-ID 4.0 much more useful to the community and should make small molecule identification much easier, faster, and more accurate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative assessment of the model form error of friction models across different interface representations for jointed structures

Hysteretic models are widely used to model frictional interactions in joints to recreate experimental behavior. However, it is unclear which models are best suited for fitting or predicting the responses of structures. Here, the present study evaluates 26 friction model/interface representation combinations to quantify the model form error. A Quasi-Static Modal Analysis approach (termed Rayleigh Quotient Nonlinear Modal Analysis) is adopted to calculate the nonlinear system response, and a Multi-Objective Optimization is solved to fit experimental data of the first mode of the Brake-Reuß Beam. Optimized parameters from the first mode are applied to the second and third bending modes to quantify the predictive ability of the models. Formulations for both tracing full hysteresis loops and recreating hysteresis loops from a single loading curve (Masing assumptions) are considered. Smoothly varying models applied to a five patch representation showed the highest flexibility (for fitting mode 1) and good predictive potential (for modes 2 and 3). For a second formulation, which uses 152 frictional elements to represent the interface, the physically motivated spring in series with a Coulomb slip model (elastic dry friction) has high error for fitting mode 1 and performs near the middle for predicting higher modes. For both interface representation, the best fit models are not the most physical, but rather the ones with the most parameters (as expected); however, the more physical models perform somewhat better for predicting the higher modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

The NuMI Flux Prediction at ICARUS

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment seeking to probe fundamental symmetries within the structure of the Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata (PMNS) mixing matrix, and perform precision measurements its parameters including the neutrino mass ordering via the sign of $\Delta m^2_{31}$, and the charge-parity violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$. To make these measurements with high precision, DUNE will require external $\nu$-Ar scattering cross section data as a crucial input to the oscillation fit. Imaging Cosmic And Rare Underground Signals (ICARUS) is a 476 t liquid argon neutrino detector located at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) where it is serving as the far detector for the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program along the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) axis. ICARUS additionally lies 795 m downstream and 100.1 mrad off-axis of the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) neutrino beam. From this position, ICARUS is exposed to a large flux of NuMI (anti-)electron and (anti-)muon neutrinos, and poses a unique opportunity to provide high-statistics measurements of quasi-elastic and single pion-production cross sections for four neutrino flavors ($\nu_{\mu}$, $\nu_{e}$, $\bar{\nu}_{\mu}$, $\bar{\nu}_{e}$). This dissertation is centered around accurately characterizing the models and estimating their precision for use in making these measurements. This includes identifying major sources of uncertainty in the models such that they can be properly propagated to the cross section measurements. Specifically, this work focused on the model of the NuMI beamline and its impact on the neutrino fluxes, but also delved into the detector response model and its impact on reconstructed observables in the detector. Significant efforts were made to improve the characterization to enhance precision and thus reduce the level of propagated uncertainty. In particular, the NuMI flux was determined to be composed of 57% $\nu_{\mu}$, 38% $\bar{\nu}_{\mu}$, 3% $\nu_{e}$, and 2% $\bar{\nu}_{e}$ while the horns are operating in the positive-particle focusing configuration. The total uncertainty on the $\nu_{\mu} + \bar{\nu}_{\mu}$ ($\nu_{e} + \bar{\nu}_{e}$) flux while operating in the forward horn operating mode was determined to be 10.84% (9.04%). Compared to the on-axis flux, mesons that eventually decay to neutrinos more frequently reinteract within the NuMI structure, resulting in elevated uncertainty as these processes are not well-constrained by existing hadron interaction cross section measurements. Covariance matrices were calculated to propagate the flux uncertainty characterization to NuMI analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Coupled Chemo-Mechanical Behavior of Randomly Oriented NMC811 Polycrystalline Li-Ion Battery Cathodes

This paper develops a three-dimensional, transient, chemo-mechanical model that predicts the performance of single secondary particle Li-ion battery cathodes. The secondary particles are composed of numerous (approximately 60) randomly oriented single-crystal primary particles. The model incorporates concentration-dependent and anisotropic material properties. As much as possible, electrochemical, transport, and structural properties for crystalline NMC811 (Li x Ni 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 ) are taken from prior publications. Weak Van der Waals bonding between primary particles is modeled empirically using a spring analogy, which enables local primary-particle separations (disintegration) and subsequent reattachments. The model fully couples Li diffusion and the mechanical response. Results include predictions of local Li-concentrations and stresses. High stresses are found near grain boundaries, especially when the lattice orientations are greatly misaligned. Particle separations are characterized in terms of a damage parameter. The model is used to predict the effects of design and operating conditions, including charge/discharge rates, cycling scenarios, and particle sizes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind farm structural response and wake dynamics for an evolving stable boundary layer: computational and experimental comparisons

Abstract. The wind turbine design process requires performing thousands of simulations for a wide range of inflow and control conditions, which necessitates computationally efficient yet time-accurate models, especially when considering wind farm settings. To this end, FAST.Farm is a dynamic-wake-meandering-based mid-fidelity engineering tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory targeted at accurately and efficiently predicting wind turbine power production and structural loading in wind farm settings, including wake interactions between turbines. This work is an extension of a study that addressed constructing a diurnal cycle evolution based on experimental data (Quon, 2024). Here, this inflow is used to validate the turbine structural and wake-meandering response between experimental data, FAST.Farm simulation results, and high-fidelity large-eddy simulation results from the coupled Simulator fOr Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA)–OpenFAST tool. The validation occurs within the nocturnal stable boundary layer when corresponding meteorological and turbine data are available. To this end, we compared the load results from FAST.Farm and SOWFA–OpenFAST to multi-turbine measurements from a subset of a full-scale wind farm. Computational predictions of blade-root and tower-base bending loads are compared to 10 min statistics of strain gauge measurements during 3.5 h of the evolving stable boundary layer, generally with good agreement. This time period coincided with an active wake-steering campaign of an upstream turbine, resulting in time-varying yaw positions of all turbines. Wake meandering was also compared between the computational solutions, generally with excellent agreement. Simulations were based on a high-fidelity precursor constructed from inflow measurements and using state-of-the-art mesoscale-to-microscale coupling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of perturbed parallel magnetic field effects in predicting turbulent transport in NSTX

This study presents analysis of gyrokinetic simulations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) to investigate the effects of electromagnetic fields on plasma turbulence and transport. The simulations, performed with varying levels of fidelity using the gyrokinetic CGYRO code, include electrostatic (ES), single-field electromagnetic (EM1), and two-field electromagnetic (EM2) models. A detailed comparison across the simulation database reveals that electromagnetic effects increase both predicted growth rates and quasilinear fluxes, with EM2 simulations producing stronger turbulence than ES and EM1 cases. Quasilinear modeling using QLGYRO demonstrates that while the perturbed parallel magnetic field (δB ∥ ) does not drastically affect the total flux at experimental gradients, it leads to a shift in the dominant instability, altering mode structures from microtearing to kinetic ballooning modes (KBMs). The proximity of the plasma profiles to the KBM threshold is explored, with the experimental conditions being near the onset of KBM-driven transport. The KBM, with its large growth rates, is identified as a potential driver of electron temperature flattening, as it can rapidly transport heat across flux surfaces. Performing stability analysis shows core-localized unstable a low- mode that could contribute to the flattening at the early times of the discharge. TGYRO predictive modeling, incorporating both TGLF and QLGYRO, indicates that the inclusion of δB ∥ significantly improves the accuracy of temperature profile predictions in NSTX high-beta plasmas, although challenges remain in modeling the sharp flux discontinuities caused by KBM-driven instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resource selection functions based on hierarchical generalized additive models provide new insights into individual animal variation and species distributions

Habitat selection studies are designed to generate predictions of species distributions or inference regarding general habitat associations and individual variation in habitat use. Such studies frequently involve either individually indexed locations gathered across limited spatial extents and analyzed using resource selection functions (RSFs) or spatially extensive locational data without individual resolution typically analyzed using species distribution models. Both analytical methodologies have certain desirable features, but analyses that combine individual- and population-level inference with flexible non-linear functions may provide improved predictions while accounting for individual variation. Here, we describe how RSFs can be fit using hierarchical generalized additive models (HGAMs) using widely available software, providing a means to explore individual variation in habitat associations and to generate species distribution maps. We used GPS tracking data from golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos from across eastern North America with four environmental predictors to generate monthly distribution models. We considered three model structures that assumed different amounts of individual variation in the functional relationship between predictors and habitat use and used k-fold cross-validation to compare model performance. Models accounting for individual variability in shape and smoothness of functional responses performed best. Eagles exhibited the least amount of individual variation in response to land cover variables during winter months, with most individuals more closely adhering to the population-level trend. During the summer months, eagles exhibited more substantial individual variation in shape and smoothness of the functional relationships, suggesting some need to account for individual variation in eagle habitat use for both inferential and predictive purposes, during this time of year. Because they allow users to blend flexible functions with random effects structures and are well-supported by a variety of software platforms, we believe that HGAMs provide a useful addition to the suite of analyses used for modeling habitat associations or predicting species distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of uranium nitride interatomic potentials

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising nuclear fuel due to its high fissile density, high thermal conductivity, and suitability for reprocessing. In this study, two uranium nitride interatomic potentials are assessed: Tseplyaev and Starikov's angular-dependent potential and Kocevski et al.'s embedded atom model potential. Predictions of the thermophysical and elastic properties of UN, UN 2 , and α- and β-U 2 N 3 computed using both potentials are assessed and compared to available experimental data. Notably, the Tseplyaev potential performs better with the energetic aspects of UN, e.g., specific heat capacity and point defect formation energies, whereas the Kocevski potential performs better with the structural aspects of UN, e.g., thermal expansion as well as with the elastic properties. The reasons why the Kocevski potential underestimates the UN specific heat are explained by examining the UN phonon properties modeled using both potentials. The Kocevski potential shows better identification of the mechanical stability ranges of UN, UN 2 , and α- and β-U 2 N 3 , reasonably predicting the melting point of UN and predicting stable structures for UN 2 and α- and β-U 2 N 3 . On the other hand, the Tseplyaev potential predicts a premature phase change of both UN and UN 2 and cannot stabilize α- nor β-U 2 N 3 . However, the Kocevski potential cannot predict a stable α-U phase and is thus not suitable for the calculation of formation energies for non-stoichiometric point defects.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

BEAST DB: Grand-Canonical Database of Electrocatalyst Properties

We present BEAST DB, an open-source database comprised of ab initio electrochemical data computed using grand-canonical density functional theory in implicit solvent at consistent calculation parameters. The database contains over 20,000 surface calculations and covers a broad set of heterogeneous catalyst materials and electrochemical reactions. Calculations were performed at self-consistent fixed potential as well as constant charge to facilitate comparisons to the computational hydrogen electrode. This article presents common use cases of the database to rationalize trends in catalyst activity, screen catalyst material spaces, understand elementary mechanistic steps, analyze the electronic structure, and train machine learning models to predict higher fidelity properties. Users can interact graphically with the database by querying for individual calculations to gain a granular understanding of reaction steps or by querying for an entire reaction pathway on a given material using an interactive reaction pathway tool. BEAST DB will be periodically updated, with planned future updates to include advanced electronic structure data, surface speciation studies, and greater reaction coverage.

database↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing molecular machine learning representations with stereoelectronics-infused molecular graphs

Molecular representation is a critical element in our understanding of the physical world and the foundation for modern molecular machine learning. Previous molecular machine learning models have used strings, fingerprints, global features and simple molecular graphs that are inherently information-sparse representations. However, as the complexity of prediction tasks increases, the molecular representation needs to encode higher fidelity information. This work introduces a new approach to infusing quantum-chemical-rich information into molecular graphs via stereoelectronic effects, enhancing expressivity and interpretability. Learning to predict the stereoelectronics-infused representation with a tailored double graph neural network workflow enables its application to any downstream molecular machine learning task without expensive quantum-chemical calculations. We show that the explicit addition of stereoelectronic information substantially improves the performance of message-passing two-dimensional machine learning models for molecular property prediction. We show that the learned representations trained on small molecules can accurately extrapolate to much larger molecular structures, yielding chemical insight into orbital interactions for previously intractable systems, such as entire proteins, opening new avenues of molecular design. Finally, we have developed a web application (simg.cheme.cmu.edu) where users can rapidly explore stereoelectronic information for their own molecular systems.

Boiko, Daniil A↗

DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine-Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

To cope with legacy greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop direct air capture (DAC), a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been studied as DAC sorbent materials because of their structural and chemical diversity. Thermodynamic calculations using classical force fields are often used to screen MOFs for their performance in separations such as CO2 capture. Machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) can use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). These descriptions of forces and energies can be used to improve the accuracy of adsorption calculations. In this work, MLFF models were developed for MOFs to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption properties.

Findley, John↗