Application of a dynamic density model to the simulation of earth orbit trajectories
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Baker, A. B.↗
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Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications
For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.
Dreher, Joseph G.↗
White Paper: Gateway Destination Orbit Model: A Continuous 15 Year NRHO Reference Trajectory
The Gateway program has selected a Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) of the L2 southern family as its operational orbit. In order to facilitate mission analysis for Gateway and associated programs utilizing this orbit, a representative reference trajectory 15 years in duration has been developed. The purpose of this white paper is to review the properties of this NRHO reference trajectory.
lunar synodic resonant↗
Development of an Airspace Simulation and Modeling Tool for Enhanced Spectrum Management
The emergence of new aerial vehicles into the National Airspace System creates an increased demand for aeronautical communications to support aviation operations. However, the issue of spectrum scarcity remains an ever-present concern, and the growing demand cannot be supported using existing spectrum allocation strategies. As a result, a new spectrum management approach is required, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is investigating advanced concepts to modernize the management and use of aviation spectrum by leveraging the latest advancements in wireless communications, big data and machine learning. This research proposes an autonomous spectrum allocation concept, which allocates communications resources, such as spectrum and power, based on the predicted communications and air traffic demands throughout the airspace, as opposed to the use of fixed allocations as is done today. This approach will result in improved spectrum utilization efficiency and enhanced airspace capacity. The autonomous spectrum allocation concept decomposes into three research areas: demand prediction, resource allocation, and use case evaluation. As part of the use case evaluation effort, a modeling and simulation capability is currently under development. This simulation capability includes the implementation of various features, including visualization of both live or virtually-generated airspace traffic, simulation scenario development, simulation management with data collection, and flight plan creation with corresponding trajectory generation. This modeling and simulation capability will continue to evolve as new and advanced airspace applications are introduced into existing and emerging operational environments.
Eric J. Knoblock↗
Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 1: Analytical manual
The mission analysis program for solar electric propulsion (MAPSEP) is comprised of the basic modes: TOPSEP (trajectory generation), GODSEP (linear error analysis), and SIMSEP (simulation). The program is designed to analyze any low thrust mission with respect to trajectory performance, guidance and navigation, and to provide system related requirements for the purpose of vehicle design. The MAPSEP organization is described along with all models and algorithms. Topics discussed include: trajectory and error covariance propagation methods, orbit determination processes, thrust modeling, and trajectory correction (guidance) schemes.
Hong, P. E.↗
Fast and Precise Trajectory Simulation for Entry, Descent, and Landing Using A Multi-Model Monte Carlo Approach
Predicting landing radius and other quantities of interest (QoI) for entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications requires a viable uncertainty propagation method for quantifying the impact of uncertainties in wind pattern variations, atmospheric uncertainties, etc. While standard MC simulation is the defacto standard for providing robust and unbiased predictions,it is often infeasible for expensive, high-fidelity EDL models. Low-fidelity models are commonly constructed to replace the high-fidelity model in MC simulation for computational speedup,but at the expense of accuracy and unbiasedness. Emerging multi-model MC methods are bridging this gap by combining predictions from two or more models of varying fidelity and computational cost for efficient and unbiased uncertainty propagation. This work explores the use of multi-model MC for increasing the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. It is shown that combining a high-fidelity EDL model with low-fidelity models (e.g,data-driven, reduced physics) yields substantial computational speedup versus standard MCwith only the high-fidelity model. Moreover, the unbiasedness of multi-model MC predictions is highlighted by showing increased accuracy versus an approach that leverages a low-fidelity surrogate model alone.
James E. Warner↗
Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model
Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of disease with the spread of fear surrounding the disease, implemented within the EpiCast simulation framework. EpiCast models transmission within a realistic synthetic population, capturing individual-level interactions. In our model, fear propagates through both in-person contact and broadcast media, prompting individuals to adopt protective behaviors that reduce disease spread. In order to better understand these coupled dynamics, we create and compare a range of compartmental models to ensure that introducing additional disease states does not prevent the emergence of multiple waves in these simpler models. Additionally, we compare a range of behavioral scenarios within EpiCast, varying the level and intensity of fear and behavior change. Our results show that the addition of asymptomatic, exposed, and pre-symptomatic disease states can impact both the rate at which an outbreak progresses and its overall trajectory in compartmental models. In EpiCast, the combination of non-local fear spread via broadcasters and strong behavioral responses by fearful individuals generally leads to multiple epidemic waves, an outcome that occurs only within a narrow parameter range when fear spreads purely through local contact. Accounting for the coupled spread of fear and disease is critical for understanding disease dynamics and designing timely, targeted responses to emerging infectious threats.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
On the atmospheric photochemistry of nitric acid
Measurements of the temporal and spatial variations in HNO3, particularly those from the Nimbus 7 limb IR monitor of the stratosphere (LIMS) satellite experiment, are compared to both a two-dimensional chemical/dynamical model and to chemistry/parcel trajectory analyses. Significant discrepancies are found between the observed and modeled variations in the winter season, especially in the polar night region. The study of the evolution of HNO3 suggests that an important source exists for this species in the high-latitude winter stratosphere that is not included in presently accepted photochemical schemes. Possible reactions to account for this discrepancy are explored.
Austin, J.↗
Toward an Integrated Solution to Mitigate the Impact of Volcanic Ash to Aviation
The science community is making a concerted effort to improve the reliability of dispersion models for the forecasting of volcanic ash plumes. Toward this end, it has been observed that the assimilation of diverse, accurate and frequent surface, airborne and satellite observations of the source and distal ash plumes may hold the key. Various international research organizations and operational agencies make these observations using a variety of active and passive remote sensing systems and use them to initialize atmospheric trajectory and dispersion models. These observation systems range from surface LIDAR and ceilometers, to airborne radiometers and nephelometers, to satellite radiometers, multi-spectral imagers, LIDAR and UV-photometers. None of these systems alone is a panacea, however, their synergistic application holds great promise toward solving this complex problem. Additionally, the aeronautical and science communities are working to better understand the quantitative thresholds and tolerances of aviation systems to volcanic ash to better inform scientists of the accuracy requirements for dispersion model forecasts. A number of the most recent and promising efforts in all of these area are discussed in this presentation.
Murray, John J.↗
A feedback control for the advanced launch system
A robust feedback algorithm is presented for a near-minimum-fuel ascent of a two-stage launch vehicle operating in the equatorial plane. The development of the algorithm is based on the ideas of neighboring optimal control and can be derived into three phases. In phase 1, the formalism of optimal control is employed to calculate fuel-optimal ascent trajectories for a simple point-mass model. In phase 2, these trajectories are used to numerically calculate gain functions of time for the control(s), the total flight time, and possibly, for other variables of interest. In phase 3, these gains are used to determine feedback expressions for the controls associated with a more realistic model of a launch vehicle. With the Advanced Launch System in mind, all calculations are performed on a two-stage vehicle with fixed thrust history, but this restriction is by no means important for the approach taken. Performance and robustness of the algorithm is found to be excellent.
Seywald, Hans↗
Sensitivity of Hybrid NEP-Chemical Vehicle Mass to Assumptions for Crewed Opposition-Class Mars Missions
This research illustrates the impact of different technology choices and their associated performance on overall sizing for a hybrid Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) and chemical crewed Mars transportation vehicle. A set of models for the trajectory and vehicle mass, power system specific mass(α), and power conversion performance enable the analysis. Vehicle mass required to close the mission is calculated as a function of α and specific impulse (Isp) for multiple choices of high-level assumptions including system alpha vs. power scaling and electric thruster type. System alpha is built up and compared for multiple cases of technology assumptions. A Brayton cycle model is used to illustrate the alpha sensitivities to assumptions in cycle design such as peak operating temperature and component performance. The analysis illustrates how technology performance sensitivities affect the alpha and thus vehicle sizing for a range of mission and technology assumptions.
Matthew Duchek↗
Base Flow Investigation of the Apollo AS-202 Command Module
In recent years, both Europe and the US are developing hypersonic research and operational vehicles. These include (re)entry capsules (both ballistic and lifting) and lifting bodies such as ExoMars, EXPERT, ARV, CEV and IXV. The research programs are meant to enable technology and engineering capabilities to support during the next decade the development of affordable (possibly reusable) space transportation systems as well as hypersonic weapons systems for time critical targets. These programs have a broad range of goals, ranging from the qualification of thermal protection systems, the assessment of RCS performances, the development of GNC algorithms, to the full demonstration of the performance and operability of the integrated vehicles. Since the aerothermodynamic characteristics influence nearly all elements of the vehicle design, the accurate prediction of the aerothermal environment is a prerequisite for the design of efficient hypersonic systems. Significant uncertainties in the prediction of the hypersonic aerodynamic and the aerothermal loads can lead to conservative margins in the design of the vehicle including its Outer Mould Line (OML), thermal protection system, structure, and required control system robustness. The current level of aerothermal prediction uncertainties results therefore in reduced vehicle performances (e.g., sub-optimal payload to mass ratio, increased operational constraints). On the other hand, present computational capabilities enable the simulation of three dimensional flow fields with complex thermo-chemical models over complete trajectories and ease the validation of these tools by, e.g., reconstruction of detailed wind tunnel tests performed under identified and controlled conditions (flow properties and vehicle attitude in particular). These controlled conditions are typically difficult to achieve when performing in flight measurements which in turn results in large associated measurement uncertainties. Similar problems arise when attempting to rebuild measurements performed in "hot" ground facilities, where the difficulty level is increased by the addition of the free-flow characterization itself. The implementation of ever more sophisticated thermochemical models is no obvious cure to the aforementioned problems since their effect is often overwhelmed by the large measurement uncertainties incurred in both flight and ground high enthalpy facilities. Concurrent to the previous considerations, a major contributor to the overall vehicle mass of re-entry vehicles is the afterbody thermal protection system. This is due to the large acreage (equal or bigger than that of the forebody) to be protected. The present predictive capabilities for base flows are comparatively lower than those for windward flowfields and offer therefore a substantial potential for improving the design of future re-entry vehicles. To that end, it is essential to address the accuracy of high fidelity CFD tools exercised in the US and EU, which motivates a thorough investigation of the present status of hypersonic flight afterbody heating. This paper addresses the predictive capabilities of after body flow fields of re-entry vehicles investigated in the frame of the NATO/RTO - RTG-043 Task Group and is structured as follows: First, the verification of base flow topologies on the basis of available wind-tunnel results performed under controlled supersonic conditions (i.e., cold flows devoid of reactive effects) is performed. Such tests address the detailed characterization of the base flow with particular emphasis on separation/reattachment and their relation to Mach number effects. The tests have been performed on an Apollo-like re-entry capsule configuration. Second, the tools validated in the frame of the previous effort are exercised and appraised against flight-test data collected during the Apollo AS-202 re-entry.
Walpot, Louis M. G.↗
A two-phase restricted equilibrium model for combustion of metalized solid propellants
An Eulerian-Lagrangian two-phase approach was adopted to model the multi-phase reacting internal flow in a solid rocket with a metalized propellant. An Eulerian description was used to analyze the motion of the continuous phase which includes the gas as well as the small (micron-sized) particulates, while a Lagrangian description is used for the analysis of the discrete phase which consists of the larger particulates in the motor chamber. The particulates consist of Al and Al2O3 such that the particulate composition is 100 percent Al at injection from the propellant surface with Al2O3 fraction increasing due to combustion along the particle trajectory. An empirical model is used to compute the combustion rate for agglomerates while the continuous phase chemistry is treated using chemical equilibrium. The computer code was used to simulate the reacting flow in a solid rocket motor with an AP/HTPB/Al propellant. The computed results show the existence of an extended combustion zone in the chamber rather than a thin reaction region. The presence of the extended combustion zone results in the chamber flow field and chemical being far from isothermal (as would be predicted by a surface combustion assumption). The temperature in the chamber increases from about 2600 K at the propellant surface to about 3350 K in the core. Similarly the chemical composition and the density of the propellant gas also show spatially non-uniform distribution in the chamber. The analysis developed under the present effort provides a more sophisticated tool for solid rocket internal flow predictions than is presently available, and can be useful in studying apparent anomalies and improving the simple correlations currently in use. The code can be used in the analysis of combustion efficiency, thermal load in the internal insulation, plume radiation, etc.
Sabnis, J. S.↗
Development of the X-33 Aerodynamic Uncertainty Model
An aerodynamic uncertainty model for the X-33 single-stage-to-orbit demonstrator aircraft has been developed at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The model is based on comparisons of historical flight test estimates to preflight wind-tunnel and analysis code predictions of vehicle aerodynamics documented during six lifting-body aircraft and the Space Shuttle Orbiter flight programs. The lifting-body and Orbiter data were used to define an appropriate uncertainty magnitude in the subsonic and supersonic flight regions, and the Orbiter data were used to extend the database to hypersonic Mach numbers. The uncertainty data consist of increments or percentage variations in the important aerodynamic coefficients and derivatives as a function of Mach number along a nominal trajectory. The uncertainty models will be used to perform linear analysis of the X-33 flight control system and Monte Carlo mission simulation studies. Because the X-33 aerodynamic uncertainty model was developed exclusively using historical data rather than X-33 specific characteristics, the model may be useful for other lifting-body studies.
Cobleigh, Brent R.↗
Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing
As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.
Lugo, Rafael A.↗
A simulation technique for predicting thickness of thermal sprayed coatings
The complexity of many of the components being coated today using the thermal spray process makes the trial and error approach traditionally followed in depositing a uniform coating inadequate, thereby necessitating a more analytical approach to developing robotic trajectories. A two dimensional finite difference simulation model has been developed to predict the thickness of coatings deposited using the thermal spray process. The model couples robotic and component trajectories and thermal spraying parameters to predict coating thickness. Simulations and experimental verification were performed on a rotating disk to evaluate the predictive capabilities of the approach.
Goedjen, John G.↗
Spacecraft Passive Safety Assessment Using Ellipse Constraints and Relative Orbital Elements
This paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for validating spacecraft passive safety using relative orbital elements (ROE) centered around the far-field to near-field trajectory design of a hypothetical autonomous rendezvous and docking (AR&D) mission. The specific formulation of the ROEs used in this study are of quasi-nonsingular form based on elative eccentricity/inclination vectors. Current methodologies for ensuring passive safety apply keep-out volumes (KOV) to maintain appropriate separation between the Servicer and Client. Widely used techniques to assess the integrity of the KOV involve forward propagation of the relative Cartesian state to check for a potential KOV breach. In this study, an alternative approach to the propagation-based method is proposed using ROEs due to their valuable geometric insights of spacecraft relative motion. Modeling the relative trajectory and KOV ellipsoids as ellipses into the 2-D ROE sub-space simplifies the passive safety validation to a root-finding problem within the unit disk with high computational efficiency. Other approaches to intersection detection of the KOV are also evaluated in accuracy and run-time. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation was employed to compare the ROE-based and relative Cartesian approaches in terms of maneuver error.
Bruce Barbour↗
Mixing by barotropic instability in a nonlinear model
A global, nonlinear, equivalent barotropic model is used to study the isentropic mixing of passive tracers by barotropic instability. Basic states are analytical zonal-mean jets representative of the zonal-mean flow in the upper stratosphere, where the observed 4-day wave is thought to be a result of barotropic, and possibly baroclinic, instability. As is known from previous studies, the phase speed and growth rate of the unstable waves is fairly sensitive to the shape of the zonal-mean jet; and the dominant wave mode at saturation is not necessarily the fastest growing mode; but the unstable modes share many features of the observed 4-day wave. Lagrangian trajectories computed from model winds are used to characterize the mixing by the flow. For profiles with both midlatitude and polar modes, mixing is stronger in midlatitude than inside the vortex; but there is little exchange of air across the vortex boundary. There is a minimum in the Lyapunov exponents of the flow and the particle dispersion at the jet maximum. For profiles with only polar unstable modes, there is weak mixing inside the vortex, no mixing outside the vortex, and no exchange of air across the vortex boundary. These results support the theoretical arguments that, whether wave disturbances are generated by local instability or propagate from other regions, the mixing properties of the total flow are determined by the locations of the wave critical lines and that strong gradients of potential vorticity are very resistant to mixing.
Bowman, Kenneth P.↗