Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Uncertainty management”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

A Hypothesis on Biological Protection from Space Radiation Through the Use of New Therapeutic Gases

Radiation exposure to astronauts could be a significant obstacle for long duration manned space exploration because of current uncertainties regarding the extent of biological effects. Furthermore, concepts for protective shielding also pose a technically challenging issue due to the nature of cosmic radiation and current mass and power constraints with modern exploration technology. The concern regarding exposure to cosmic radiation is the biological damage it induces. As damage is associated with increased oxidative stress, it is important and would be enabling to mitigate and/or prevent oxidative stress prior to the development of clinical symptoms and disease. This paper hypothesizes a "systems biology" approach in which a combination of chemical and biological mitigation techniques are used conjunctively. It proposes using new, therapeutic, medical gases as both chemical radioprotectors for radical scavenging and biological signaling molecules for management of the body s response to exposure. From reviewing radiochemistry of water, biological effects of CO, H2, NO, and H2S gas, and mechanisms of radiation biology, it is concluded that this approach may have great therapeutic potential for radiation exposure. Furthermore, it also appears to have similar potential for curtailing the pathogenesis of other diseases in which oxidative stress has been implicated including, cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic inflammatory disease, hypertension, ischemia/reperfusion injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, parkinson s and alzheimer s disease, cataracts, and aging

Schoenfeld, Michael P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Hypothesis on Biological Protection from Space Radiation Through the Use of New Therapeutic Gases as Medical Counter Measures

Radiation exposure to astronauts could be a significant obstacle for long duration manned space exploration because of current uncertainties regarding the extent of biological effects. Furthermore, concepts for protective shielding also pose a technically challenging issue due to the nature of cosmic radiation and current mass and power constraints with modern exploration technology. The concern regarding exposure to cosmic radiation is the biological damage it induces. As damage is associated with increased oxidative stress, it is important and would be enabling to mitigate and/or prevent oxidative stress prior to the development of clinical symptoms and disease. This paper hypothesizes a "systems biology" approach in which a combination of chemical and biological mitigation techniques are used conjunctively. It proposes using new, therapeutic, medical gases as both chemical radioprotectors for radical scavenging and biological signaling molecules for management of the body s response to exposure. From reviewing radiochemistry of water, biological effects of CO, H2, NO, and H2S gas, and mechanisms of radiation biology, it is concluded that this approach may have great therapeutic potential for radiation exposure. Furthermore, it also appears to have similar potential for curtailing the pathogenesis of other diseases in which oxidative stress has been implicated including cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic inflammatory disease, hypertension, ischemia/reperfusion injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, Parkinson s and Alzheimer s disease, cataracts, and aging.

Schoenfeld, Michael P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Hypothesis on Biological Protection from Space Radiation Through the Use of New Therapeutic Gases

Radiation exposure to astronauts could be a significant obstacle for long duration manned space exploration because of current uncertainties regarding the extent of biological effects. Furthermore, concepts for protective shielding also pose a technically challenging issue due to the nature of cosmic radiation and current mass and power constraints with modern exploration technology. The concern regarding exposure to cosmic radiation is the biological damage it induces. As damage is associated with increased oxidative stress, it is important and would be enabling to mitigate and/or prevent oxidative stress prior to the development of clinical symptoms and disease. This paper hypothesizes a "systems biology" approach in which a combination of chemical and biological mitigation techniques are used conjunctively. It proposes using new, therapeutic, medical gases as both chemical radioprotectors for radical scavenging and biological signaling molecules for management of the body s response to exposure. From reviewing radiochemistry of water, biological effects of CO, H2, NO, and H2S gas, and mechanisms of radiation biology, it is concluded that this approach may have great therapeutic potential for radiation exposure. Furthermore, it also appears to have similar potential for curtailing the pathogenesis of other diseases in which oxidative stress has been implicated including cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic inflammatory disease, hypertension, ischemia/reperfusion injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, Parkinson s and Alzheimer s disease, cataracts, and aging.

Schoenfeld, Michael P.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗
NASA NTRS1982

Space power subsystem automation technology

The technology issues involved in power subsystem automation and the reasonable objectives to be sought in such a program were discussed. The complexities, uncertainties, and alternatives of power subsystem automation, along with the advantages from both an economic and a technological perspective were considered. Whereas most spacecraft power subsystems now use certain automated functions, the idea of complete autonomy for long periods of time is almost inconceivable. Thus, it seems prudent that the technology program for power subsystem automation be based upon a growth scenario which should provide a structured framework of deliberate steps to enable the evolution of space power subsystems from the current practice of limited autonomy to a greater use of automation with each step being justified on a cost/benefit basis. Each accomplishment should move toward the objectives of decreased requirement for ground control, increased system reliability through onboard management, and ultimately lower energy cost through longer life systems that require fewer resources to operate and maintain. This approach seems well-suited to the evolution of more sophisticated algorithms and eventually perhaps even the use of some sort of artificial intelligence. Multi-hundred kilowatt systems of the future will probably require an advanced level of autonomy if they are to be affordable and manageable.

Graves, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Design Heritage-Based Forecasting Methodology for Risk Informed Management of Advanced Systems

The development of next generation systems often carries with it the promise of improved performance, greater reliability, and reduced operational costs. These expectations arise from the use of novel designs, new materials, advanced integration and production technologies intended for functionality replacing the previous generation. However, the novelty of these nascent technologies is accompanied by lack of operational experience and, in many cases, no actual testing as well. Therefore some of the enthusiasm surrounding most new technologies may be due to inflated aspirations from lack of knowledge rather than actual future expectations. This paper proposes a design heritage approach for improved reliability forecasting of advanced system components. The basis of the design heritage approach is to relate advanced system components to similar designs currently in operation. The demonstrated performance of these components could then be used to forecast the expected performance and reliability of comparable advanced technology components. In this approach the greater the divergence of the advanced component designs from the current systems the higher the uncertainty that accompanies the associated failure estimates. Designers of advanced systems are faced with many difficult decisions. One of the most common and more difficult types of these decisions are those related to the choice between design alternatives. In the past decision-makers have found these decisions to be extremely difficult to make because they often involve the trade-off between a known performing fielded design and a promising paper design. When it comes to expected reliability performance the paper design always looks better because it is on paper and it addresses all the know failure modes of the fielded design. On the other hand there is a long, and sometimes very difficult road, between the promise of a paper design and its fulfillment; with the possibility that sometimes the reliability promise is not fulfilled at all. Decision makers in advanced technology areas have always known to discount the performance claims of a design to a degree in proportion to its stage of development, and at times have preferred the more mature design over the one of lesser maturity even with the latter promising substantially better performance once fielded. As with the broader measures of performance this has also been true for projected reliability performance. Paper estimates of potential advances in design reliability are to a degree uncertain in proportion to the maturity of the features being proposed to secure those advances. This is especially true when performance-enhancing features in other areas are also planned to be part of the development program.

Maggio, Gaspare↗
NASA NTRS1994

State-space self-tuner for on-line adaptive control

Dynamic systems, such as flight vehicles, satellites and space stations, operating in real environments, constantly face parameter and/or structural variations owing to nonlinear behavior of actuators, failure of sensors, changes in operating conditions, disturbances acting on the system, etc. In the past three decades, adaptive control has been shown to be effective in dealing with dynamic systems in the presence of parameter uncertainties, structural perturbations, random disturbances and environmental variations. Among the existing adaptive control methodologies, the state-space self-tuning control methods, initially proposed by us, are shown to be effective in designing advanced adaptive controllers for multivariable systems. In our approaches, we have embedded the standard Kalman state-estimation algorithm into an online parameter estimation algorithm. Thus, the advanced state-feedback controllers can be easily established for digital adaptive control of continuous-time stochastic multivariable systems. A state-space self-tuner for a general multivariable stochastic system has been developed and successfully applied to the space station for on-line adaptive control. Also, a technique for multistage design of an optimal momentum management controller for the space station has been developed and reported in. Moreover, we have successfully developed various digital redesign techniques which can convert a continuous-time controller to an equivalent digital controller. As a result, the expensive and unreliable continuous-time controller can be implemented using low-cost and high performance microprocessors. Recently, we have developed a new hybrid state-space self tuner using a new dual-rate sampling scheme for on-line adaptive control of continuous-time uncertain systems.

Shieh, L. S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Impact of mismodeled idle engine performance on calculation and tracking of optimal 4-D descent trajectories

Advanced flight management systems are being developed which are capable of calculating optimal 3-D and 4-D flight trajectories for arbitrary fuel and time costs. These systems require mathematical models of airplane performance in order to compute the optimal profiles. Mismodeled idle engine characteristics can result in descent trajectories requiring excessive throttle and/or speedbrake activity in order to achieve the desired end conditions. This paper evaluates the cost and fuel penalties, trajectory variations, and flight control requirements associated with typical idle engine modeling errors for a twin-jet transport airplane. Variations in idle power setting, thrust, fuel flow, and surge bleed operation were evaluated for a cruise/descent flight segment. The results of this analysis provide insight into the penalties associated with uncertainties in idle engine performance and suggest methods of modeling which minimize these penalties.

Williams, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of Temporal Spacing Errors Associated with Interval Management Algorithms

This paper seeks to characterize the temporal spacing errors resulting from the use of Interval Management (IM) algorithms. The focus of the current paper is IM concepts and algorithms that realize a specified temporal spacing between a Target aircraft and an Ownship aircraft at the runway threshold. The paper presents an IM algorithm consisting of the following four modules: (i) Target-Landing-Time Estimation Module, (ii) Ownship-Landing-Time Estimation Module, (iii) Ownship Speed Command Computation Module, and (iv) Ownship Thrust Command Computation Module. The overall guidance module is evaluated on a simulation that models aircraft point-mass dynamics, bank-angle auto-pilot dynamics, pitch-axis auto-pilot dynamics, and engine lag dynamics. The simulation environment also consists of actual atmospheric forecasts and realistic spatio-temporally correlated wind uncertainty models. Results obtained from single case simulation as well as Monte-Carlo simulations are presented in the paper. The modeled scenario consisted of an A320 Target equipped with “Lateral Navigation”/“Vertical Navigation” (LNAV/VNAV) capabilities followed by an A320 Ownship equipped with the IM algorithm. Both aircraft fly the BIGSUR route to SFO airport using a RAP-13 1-hr wind forecast. 500 Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted with realistic wind uncertainty models. The IM algorithm for this case is seen to have a 90% probability landing time error range of 5.9 seconds, compared to the no-IM solution, which has a 90% probability landing time error range of 33.4 seconds.

Bai, Xiaoli↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗
NASA NTRS2003

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

Jones, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SIRIUS: Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems

This paper presents the Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems (SIRIUS), a research framework for simulation and analysis of future conceptual Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. SIRIUS is being developed under the auspices of the NASA Air Traffic Management eXploration project, UAM subproject (ATM-X UAM). SIRIUS provides an intuitive, highly configurable graphical user interface to design complex traffic scenarios and airspace configurations representative of conceptual UAM operations. Aircraft simulated with SIRIUS can be equipped with flight-tested capabilities for detect and avoid (DAA), geofencing, distributed merging and spacing, path conformance, and path planning while executing time-constrained, 4D trajectories generated by a UAM ground operations system. Central to the design of the SIRIUS simulation framework is the capability to evaluate the integration and interoperability of ground-based separation services (e.g., strategic separation) with extended DAA functionality (e.g., path monitoring, separation provision, merging and spacing, etc.) The simulation environment also supports modelling of wind, navigation, and sensor uncertainties, as well as communication delays. SIRIUS enables distributed simulation of large-scale scenarios. An interactive graphical analysis capability helps isolate, visualize, and compare relevant vehicle state data and widely used measures of performance metrics across multiple scenarios.

Andrew Peters↗
NASA NTRS2020

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Evaluation of a Flight Deck Interval Management Algorithm Including Delayed Target Trajectories

NASA's first Air Traffic Management (ATM) Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) was created to facilitate the transition of mature air traffic management technologies from the laboratory to operational use. The technologies selected for demonstration are the Traffic Management Advisor with Terminal Metering (TMA-TM), which provides precise timebased scheduling in the terminal airspace; Controller Managed Spacing (CMS), which provides controllers with decision support tools enabling precise schedule conformance; and Interval Management (IM), which consists of flight deck automation that enables aircraft to achieve or maintain precise in-trail spacing. During high demand operations, TMA-TM may produce a schedule and corresponding aircraft trajectories that include delay to ensure that a particular aircraft will be properly spaced from other aircraft at each schedule waypoint. These delayed trajectories are not communicated to the automation onboard the aircraft, forcing the IM aircraft to use the published speeds to estimate the target aircraft's estimated time of arrival. As a result, the aircraft performing IM operations may follow an aircraft whose TMA-TM generated trajectories have substantial speed deviations from the speeds expected by the spacing algorithm. Previous spacing algorithms were not designed to handle this magnitude of uncertainty. A simulation was conducted to examine a modified spacing algorithm with the ability to follow aircraft flying delayed trajectories. The simulation investigated the use of the new spacing algorithm with various delayed speed profiles and wind conditions, as well as several other variables designed to simulate real-life variability. The results and conclusions of this study indicate that the new spacing algorithm generally exhibits good performance; however, some types of target aircraft speed profiles can cause the spacing algorithm to command less than optimal speed control behavior.

Swieringa, Kurt A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Automatic generation of efficient orderings of events for scheduling applications

In scheduling a set of tasks, it is often not known with certainty how long a given event will take. We call this duration uncertainty. Duration uncertainty is a primary obstacle to the successful completion of a schedule. If a duration of one task is longer than expected, the remaining tasks are delayed. The delay may result in the abandonment of the schedule itself, a phenomenon known as schedule breakage. One response to schedule breakage is on-line, dynamic rescheduling. A more recent alternative is called proactive rescheduling. This method uses statistical data about the durations of events in order to anticipate the locations in the schedule where breakage is likely prior to the execution of the schedule. It generates alternative schedules at such sensitive points, which can be then applied by the scheduler at execution time, without the delay incurred by dynamic rescheduling. This paper proposes a technique for making proactive error management more effective. The technique is based on applying a similarity-based method of clustering to the problem of identifying similar events in a set of events.

Morris, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of the Ability of United States and Russian Trace Contaminant Control Systems to Meet U.S. 180-Day and Russian 360-Day Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentrations

As the Space Station Freedom program transitioned to become the International Space Station (ISS), uncertainty existed concerning the performance capabilities for U.S.- and Russian-provided trace contaminant control (TCC) equipment. In preparation for the first dialogue between NASA and Russian Space Agency personnel in Moscow, Russia, in late April 1994, an engineering analysis was conducted to serve as a basis for discussing TCC equipment engineering assumptions as well as relevant assumptions on equipment offgassing and cabin air quality standards. The analysis presented was conducted as part of the efforts to integrate Russia into the ISS program via the early ISS Multilateral Medical Operations Panel's Air Quality Subgroup deliberations. This analysis, served as a basis for technical deliberations that established a framework for TCC system design and operations among the ISS program's international partners that has been instrumental in successfully managing the ISS common cabin environment.

Perry, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

Chytka, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗