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At least 451 records · Page 25

Flattening the Radial Temperature Profile across the Transformational Challenge Reactor Core

The Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is demonstrating an agile development approach to advanced nuclear reactor design, which has traditionally utilized a linear design process. In leveraging artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, advanced materials, and cutting-edge modeling and simulation, the TCR program aims to minimize the high cost and lengthy deployment timelines now standard in the nuclear industry. Within a relatively short period of time, a robust and mature advanced gas-cooled reactor was iteratively designed under the TCR program, using these cutting-edge technologies. The TCR is a 3 MWt gas-cooled microreactor fueled with uranium nitride (UN) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles. Though manufactured via traditional means, these UN TRISO particles are loaded into additively manufactured silicon carbide (SiC) cans [4]. Once loaded with TRISO particles, the SiC cans are densified using a chemical vapor infiltration process. The additively manufactured SiC enables significantly more freedom in the design of the fuel form than could ever be achieved using traditionally manufactured SiC. The helium coolant, pressurized to 5 MPa, enters the core at 300°C and nominally exits it at 500°C. Typically, the most thermally limiting components in any reactor design are the fuel assemblies in the core center. To provide a wide thermal margin in these central fuel assemblies, the flow may be biased toward the center of the core to more effectively cool these fuel assemblies with more power deposition and flatten the core’s radial temperature distribution. An analytical fluid model of the TCR core was developed to explore methods for biasing the flow away from the cooler outer fuel assemblies and towards the hotter inner ones. Higher-fidelity models developed in STAR-CCM+ 2020.3.1, a computational fluid dynamics code, were then utilized to verify the analytical model’s findings.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Qualitative Risk Assessment of Legacy Wells within the Estimated Prairie State Generating Company Area of Review

This report details the digitization of a legacy wellbore database, including data processing assumptions, parameter estimation, and risk assessment methodology. The database, comprising 6,454 documents, was provided by ISGS. It includes valuable data from the Prairie State Generating Company (PSGC) and One Earth Energy (OEE) sites of the CarbonSAFE Phase III – Illinois Storage Corridor project. The report focuses on wells within a 15-mile radius from the Lively Grove #1 (LG#1) well at PSGC site, evaluating subsurface conditions and potential risks. A total of 4,386 wellbores within 15 miles of the LG#1 well were filtered based on depth and formation codes. LG#1 is the stratigraphic well at the PSGC site drilled in 2021. Ninety-four (94) wells penetrating the Maquoketa Shale Group (the primary confining unit) within the estimated area-of-review (AoR) for the PSGC site were evaluated using a qualitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology. The QRA developed by Arbad et al. 2022 focuses on legacy wells within the AoR and categorizes them based on well construction details. The QRA identifies wells that need immediate attention by categorizing them based on penetration depth and protection. Wells within the AoR were categorized into nine groups based on penetrations and protections. These categories range from Type 1 wells, with no documentation, to Type 9 wells, which do not penetrate the primary confining unit or storage reservoir (unit). Well accessibility within the AoR varies based on well status, including Dry & Abandoned (DA), Plugged & Abandoned (PA), Injection (INJ), Oil/Gas Producing (PROD), and Observation (Obs) wells. Accessibility levels were determined by well construction, with DA wells being the least accessible and Observation wells the most accessible, impacting gas leakage detection possibilities. Remedial action priority of wells decreases from Type 1 to Type 9 wells. Type 1 to Type 6 wells with status DA and PA require immediate attention, while Type 7 and Type 8 wells are low priority. A risk matrix used to prioritize corrective actions for legacy wells is proposed to categorize wells within an AoR based on penetrations, protections, and accessibility. The methodology involves data acquisition, well categorization into nine types, and determining CO 2 leakage pathways using well schematics and geospatial mapping. This approach is particularly useful for managing the integrity of legacy wells throughout the lifecycle of a Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project. A qualitative risk assessment of 94 wells within the AoR of the PSGC site identified 54 wells with high priority for corrective action due to penetration of the primary containment seal. The assessment utilizes color-coded maps to categorize well types and prioritize corrective actions, providing a comprehensive analysis. Schematics of wells penetrating the primary confining unit were drawn, and leakage pathways were identified. Details of all wells penetrating the confining zone are provided in the appendix, including information on well types, plugging, and casing status.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Peridynamics and surrogate modeling of pressure-driven well stimulation

In this work we use the peridynamics theory of solid mechanics to simulate fracture in an annular rock domain subject to an in-situ stress and create surrogate models that predict the area of the resulting cracks. Peridynamics is a non-local formulation of continuum mechanics that naturally accommodates material discontinuities. Furthermore, unlike other fracture modeling techniques there is no need to provide information about the crack path. We utilize the peridynamics code Peridigm and take a two-stage approach to fracture modeling. First an implicit solve is performed to compute the in-situ stress state. We then execute an explicit solve where a pressure loading designed to emulate fluid-driven hydraulic fracture is applied at the borehole and transmitted to the pre-stressed rock. We present results from polynomial and single and multi-level Gaussian process surrogate models constructed from a sampling study of the peridynamics model. The surrogates predict crack area given a measure of the in-situ stress anisotropy and rise time and amplitude of the pressure loading. These surrogates take a minuscule fraction of peridynamics model's running time to evaluate and are a step towards enabling advanced optimization and uncertainty quantification workflows that require many model evaluations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Contribution of Recently Measured Nuclear Data to Reactor Antineutrino Energy Spectra Predictions

The aim of this work is to study the impact of the inclusion of the recently measured β decay properties of the {sup 102,104,105,106,107}Tc, {sup 105}Mo, and {sup 101}Nb nuclei in the calculation of the antineutrino (anti-ν) energy spectra arising after the fissions of the four main fissile isotopes {sup 235,238}U, and {sup 239,241}Pu in PWRs. These β feeding probabilities, measured using the Total Absorption Technique (TAS) at the JYFL facility of Jyväskylä, have been found to play a major role in the γ component of the decay heat for {sup 239}Pu in the 4-3000 s range. Following the fission product summation method, the calculation was performed using the MCNP Utility Reactor Evolution code (MURE) coupled to the experimental spectra built from β decay properties of the fission products taken from evaluated databases. These latest TAS data are found to have a significant effect on the Pu isotope energy spectra and on the spectrum of {sup 238}U showing the importance of their measurement for a better assessment of the reactor anti-ν energy spectrum, as well as importance for fundamental neutrino physics experiments and neutrino applied physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Simulation scaling studies of reactor core two-phase flow using direct numerical simulation

Tremendous growth in supercomputing power in recent years has resulted in the emergence of high-resolution flow analysis methods as an advanced research tool to evaluate single and two-phase flow behavior. In particular, unstructured mesh-based methods have been applied to analyze flows in complex reactor core geometries, including those of light water reactors (LWR). The finite-element based code, PHASTA, is utilized to perform large-scale simulations of two-phase bubbly flows in LWR geometries. Given the large computational cost of direct numerical simulation (DNS) coupled with interface tracking methods (ITM), typical domains encompass a portion of a single subchannel. In the presented research, the state-of-the-art analysis of turbulent two-phase flows in complex LWR subchannel geometries are demonstrated at both prototypical reactor parameters as well as scaled low pressure conditions. Three different cases are studied, a high-pressure simulation in prototypical reactor subchannel geometry, a low-pressure case in prototypical geometry and a final low-pressure case in a geometry scaled up to conserve the ratio between the bubble size and the domain pitch. Utilizing advanced statistical processing tools, these simulation conditions are compared to shed light on the relevancy of two-phase flow characteristics given the significant differences between LWR and low-pressure conditions. These findings can lead to the generation of useful guiding principles when researchers need to scale the two-phase flow behavior captured at low pressure and temperature conditions to those at reactor operating conditions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Near-continuum, hypersonic oxygen flow over a double cone simulated by direct simulation Monte Carlo informed from quantum chemistry

A large-scale, fully resolved direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) computation of a non-equilibrium, reactive flow of pure oxygen over a double cone is presented. Under the simulated near-continuum conditions, the computational demands are shown to be significant because of the wide range of length scales that must be resolved. Therefore, robust grid adaption capabilities and efficient parallelization of the Stochastic PArallel Rarefied-gas Time-accurate Analyzer (SPARTA) code that is utilized in this work are essential. The thermochemical and transport collision models were selected for efficiency and simplicity. First-principles data, obtained from the highly accurate direct molecular simulation method, were used to inform the collision models’ parameters. Importantly, because SPARTA implements molecular collision models using collision-specific energies, the resulting macroscopic relaxation rates were evaluated a posteriori via zero-dimensional heat bath simulations. The comparisons of surface properties, namely heat flux and pressure, show very close agreement with previous computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results. Differences with the measurements were found to be similar to the CFD simulations. The unresolved discrepancy with the measurements could be due to inconsistent free stream conditions with the actual experimental data or missing physical phenomena altogether, for example atomic and molecular oxygen electronically excited states, three-dimensional effects, or more complex gas–surface interactions. As shown in this work, the advantages of obtaining a DSMC particle solution for these flows reside in the method's ability to be directly informed from first principles and to seamlessly describe internal energy non-equilibrium for all modes. With the advent of exascale computing and beyond, particle methods will be an increasingly important tool to verify the validity of physical assumptions in reduced-order models via fully resolved, experimental-scale simulations, down to the level of molecular-level distributions.

Mechanics↗

Simulation of H{sup -} ion source extraction systems for the Spallation Neutron Source with Ion Beam Simulator

A three-dimensional ion optical code IBSimu, which is being developed at University of Jyvaeskylae, features positive and negative ion plasma extraction models and self-consistent space charge calculation. The code has been utilized for modeling the existing extraction system of the H{sup -} ion source of the Spallation Neutron Source. Simulation results are in good agreement with experimental data. A high-current extraction system with downstream electron dumping at intermediate energy has been designed. According to the simulations it provides lower emittance compared to the baseline system at H{sup -} currents exceeding 40 mA. A magnetic low energy beam transport section consisting of two solenoids has been designed to transport the beam from the alternative electrostatic extraction systems to the radio frequency quadrupole.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling of divertor geometry effects in China fusion engineering testing reactor by SOLPS/B2-Eirene

The China Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor (CFETR) is currently under design. The SOLPS/B2-Eirene code package is utilized for the design and optimization of the divertor geometry for CFETR. Detailed modeling is carried out for an ITER-like divertor configuration and one with relatively open inner divertor structure, to assess, in particular, peak power loading on the divertor target, which is a key issue for the operation of a next-step fusion machine, such as ITER and CFETR. As expected, the divertor peak heat flux greatly exceeds the maximum steady-state heat load of 10 MW/m{sup 2}, which is a limit dictated by engineering, for both divertor configurations with a wide range of edge plasma conditions. Ar puffing is effective at reducing divertor peak heat fluxes below 10 MW/m{sup 2} even at relatively low densities for both cases, favoring the divertor configuration with more open inner divertor structure.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ELECTRON-IMPACT EXCITATION OF Ni II: EFFECTIVE COLLISION STRENGTHS FOR OPTICALLY ALLOWED FINE-STRUCTURE TRANSITIONS

In this paper, we present collision strengths and Maxwellian averaged effective collision strengths for the electron-impact excitation of Ni II. Attention is expressly concentrated on the optically allowed fine-structure transitions between the 3d {sup 9}, 3d {sup 8}4s, and 3d {sup 7}4s {sup 2} even parity levels and the 3d {sup 8}4p and 3d {sup 7}4s 4p odd parity levels. The parallel RMATRXII R-matrix package has been recently extended to allow for the inclusion of relativistic fine-structure effects. This suite of codes has been utilized in conjunction with the parallel PSTGF and PSTGICF programs in order to compute converged total collision strengths for the allowed transitions with which this study is concerned. All 113 LS terms identified with the 3d {sup 9}, 3d {sup 8}4s, 3d {sup 7}4s {sup 2}, 3d {sup 8}4p, and 3d {sup 7}4s 4p basis configurations were included in the target wavefunction representation, giving rise to a sophisticated 295 jj-level, 1930 coupled channel scattering complex. Maxwellian averaged effective collision strengths have been computed at 30 individual electron temperatures ranging from 30 to 1,000,000 K. This range comfortably encompasses all temperatures significant to astrophysical and plasma applications. The convergence of the collision strengths is exhaustively investigated and comparisons are made with previous theoretical works, where significant discrepancies exist for the majority of transitions. We conclude that intrinsic in achieving converged collision strengths and thus effective collision strengths for the allowed transitions is the combined inclusion of contributions from the (N + 1) partial waves extending to a total angular momentum value of L = 50 and further contributions from even higher partial waves accomplished by employing a 'top-up' procedure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A GENERALIZED DIFFUSION TENSOR FOR FULLY ANISOTROPIC DIFFUSION OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES IN THE HELIOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD

The spatial diffusion of cosmic rays in turbulent magnetic fields can, in the most general case, be fully anisotropic, i.e., one has to distinguish three diffusion axes in a local, field-aligned frame. We reexamine the transformation for the diffusion tensor from this local to a global frame, in which the Parker transport equation for energetic particles is usually formulated and solved. Particularly, we generalize the transformation formulae to allow for an explicit choice of two principal local perpendicular diffusion axes. This generalization includes the 'traditional' diffusion tensor in the special case of isotropic perpendicular diffusion. For the local frame, we describe the motivation for the choice of the Frenet-Serret trihedron, which is related to the intrinsic magnetic field geometry. We directly compare the old and the new tensor elements for two heliospheric magnetic field configurations, namely the hybrid Fisk and Parker fields. Subsequently, we examine the significance of the different formulations for the diffusion tensor in a standard three-dimensional model for the modulation of galactic protons. For this, we utilize a numerical code to evaluate a system of stochastic differential equations equivalent to the Parker transport equation and present the resulting modulated spectra. The computed differential fluxes based on the new tensor formulation deviate from those obtained with the 'traditional' one (only valid for isotropic perpendicular diffusion) by up to 60% for energies below a few hundred MeV depending on heliocentric distance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Edge turbulence and divertor heat flux width simulations of Alcator C-Mod discharges using an electromagnetic two-fluid model

The BOUT++ code has been utilized in order to improve the understanding of the role of turbulent modes in controlling edge transport and resulting scaling of the scrape-off layer (SOL) heat flux width. For the C-Mod enhanced D α (EDA) H-mode discharges, BOUT++ six-field two-fluid nonlinear simulations show a reasonable agree- ment of upstream turbulence and divertor target heat flux behavior: a) The simulated quasi-coherent modes (QCMs) show consistent characteristics of the frequency versus poloidal wave number spectra of the electromagnetic fluctuations when compared with experimental measurements: frequencies are around 60-120 kHz (experiment: about 70-110 kHz), k θ are around 2.0 cm ₋1 which is similar to the Phase Contrast Imaging data; b) Linear spectrum analysis is consistent with the nonlinear phase relationship cal- culation which indicates the dominance of resistive-ballooning modes and drift-Alfven wave instabilities; c) The SOL heat flux width λ q vs current I p scaling is reproduced by turbulent transport: the simulations yield similar λ q to experimental measurements within a factor of 2. Yet the magnitudes of divertor heat fluxes can be varied, depending on the physics models, sources and sinks, sheath boundary conditions, or flux limiting coefficient; d) Simple estimate by the "2-point model" for λ q is consistent with simulation. Moreover, blobby turbulent spreading is confirmed for these relatively high B p shots.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Metrics and extrapolation of resonant magnetic perturbation thresholds for ELM suppression

This large database study of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) edge localized mode (ELM) suppression thresholds in the AUG, DIII-D, EAST, and KSTAR tokamaks details the key strengths and weaknesses of RMP metrics. The RMP ELM suppression database used for this work contains plasma information at the time of transition from ELMing to ELM suppressed states where a clear experimental threshold is identified. The experimental threshold distributions are compared for five metrics: (1) the island overlap width, (2) pedestal top Chirikov overlap, (3) peeling edge displacement, (4) pedestal top resonant drive, and (5) edge dominant mode overlap. The distributions, the regularity of the dependence on RMP coil currents, and the sensitivities of a given metric to equilibrium reconstruction details are compared. The overlap metric proves to be a good compromise between including the appropriate plasma response physics and maintaining a numerical robustness. This quantity does not exhibit clear power-law scalings for projection, but machine learning can assist in predicting thresholds within the existing parameter ranges and providing uncertainty quantification of those predictions. Two new first-principles models, one utilizing a threshold from the non-linear Modified Rutherford equation evaluated at the pedestal top and one utilizing the SLAYER code to calculate the linear tearing threshold from torque balance, offer possible paths to extrapolation beyond the existing database parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PDR MODEL MAPPING OF OBSCURED H{sub 2} EMISSION AND THE LINE-OF-SIGHT STRUCTURE OF M17-SW

We observed H{sub 2} line emission with Spitzer-IRS toward M17-SW and modeled the data with our photon-dominated region (PDR) code. Derived gas density values of up to few times 10{sup 7} cm{sup -3} indicate that H{sub 2} emission originates in high-density clumps. We discover that the PDR code can be utilized to map the amount of intervening extinction obscuring the H{sub 2} emission layers, and thus we obtain the radial profile of A{sub V} relative to the central ionizing cluster NGC 6618. The extinction has a positive radial gradient, varying between 15-47 mag over the projected distance of 0.9-2.5 pc from the primary ionizer, CEN 1. These high extinction values are in good agreement with previous studies of A{sub V} toward stellar targets in M17-SW. The ratio of data to PDR model values is used to infer the global line-of-sight structure of the PDR surface, which is revealed to resemble a concave surface relative to NGC 6618. Such a configuration confirms that this PDR can be described as a bowl-shaped boundary of the central H II region in M17. The derived structure and physical conditions are important for interpreting the fine-structure and rotational line emission from the PDR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

SU-E-T-169: Evaluation of Oncentra TPS for Nasopharynx Brachy Using Patient Specific Voxel Phantom and EGSnrc

Purpose: Nasopharnx carcinoma (NPC) treatment is being carried out using Ir-192 HDR seeds in Mehdieh Hospital in Hamadan, Iran. The Oncentra™ TPS is based on optimized TG-43 formalism which disregards heterogeneity in the treatment area. Due to abundant heterogeneity in head and neck, comparison of the Oncentra™ TPS dose evaluation and an accurate dose calculation method in NPC brachytherapy is the objective of this study. Methods: CT DICOMs of a patient with NPC obtained from Mehdieh Hospital used to create 3D voxel phantom with CTCREATE utility of EGSnrc code package. The voxel phantom together with Ir-192 HDR brachytherapy source were the input to DOSXYZnrc to calculate the 3D dose distribution. The sources were incorporate with type 6 source in DOSXYZnrc and their dwell times were taken into account in final dose calculations. Results: The direct comparison between isodoses as well as DVHs for the GTV, PTV and CTV obtained by Oncentra™ and EGSnrc Monte Carlo code are made. EGSnrc results are obtained using 5×10{sup 9} histories to reduce the statistical error below 1% in GTV and 5% in 5% dose areas. The standard ICRP700 cross section library is employed in DOSXYZnrc dose calculation. Conclusion: A direct relationship between increased dose differences and increased material density (hence heterogeneity) is observed when isodoses contours of the TPS and DOSXYZnrc are compared. Regarding the point dose calculations, the differences range from 1.2% in PTV to 5.6% for cavity region and 7.8% for bone regions. While Oncentra™ TPS overestimates the dose in cavities, it tends to underestimate dose depositions within bones.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

EKAT v.1.0

E3SM Kokkos Application Toolkit (EKAT) is a collection of C++, Fortran, and CMake utilities for providing a single implementation of common kernels based on the Kokkos programming model. The library contains utilities for vectorization, tridiagonal linear system solvers, and linear interpolation as well as some general-purpose utilities such as testing utilities, parameter lists, representation of physical units, and additional interfaces. The goal is to provide a centralized implementation for high-performance computing structures and common utilities that reduce code duplication and streamline maintenance efforts. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525. SAND2022-1327 O

Bertagna, Luca↗

Investigation of the Performance of D 2 O-Cooled High-Conversion Reactors for Fuel Cycle Calculations

This report presents FY13 activities for the analysis of D 2 O cooled tight-pitch High-Conversion PWRs (HCPWRs) with U-Pu and Th-U fueled cores aiming at break-even or near breeder conditions while retaining the negative void reactivity. The analyses are carried out from several aspects which could not be covered in FY12 activities. SCALE 6.1 code system is utilized, and a series of simple 3D fuel pin-cell models are developed in order to perform Monte Carlo based criticality and burnup calculations. The performance of U-Pu fueled cores with axial and internal blankets is analyzed in terms of their impact on the relative fissile Pu mass balance, initial Pu enrichment, and void coefficient. In FY12, Pu conversion performances of D 2 O-cooled HCPWRs fueled with MOX were evaluated with small sized axial/internal DU blankets (approximately 4cm of axial length) in order to ensure the negative void reactivity, which evidently limits the conversion performance of HCPWRs. In this fiscal year report, the axial sizes of DU blankets are extended up to 30 cm in order to evaluate the amount of DU necessary to reach break-even and/or breeding conditions. Several attempts are made in order to attain the milestone of the HCPWR designs (i.e., break-even condition and negative void reactivity) by modeling of HCPWRs under different conditions such as boiling of D 2 O coolant, MOX with different 235 U enrichment, and different target burnups. A similar set of analyses are performed for Th-U fueled cores. Several promising characteristics of 233 U over other fissile like 239 Pu and 235 U, most notably its higher fission neutrons per absorption in thermal and epithermal ranges combined with lower ___ in the fast range than 239 Pu allows Th-U cores to be taller than MOX ones. Such an advantage results in 4% higher relative fissile mass balance than that of U-Pu fueled cores while retaining the negative void reactivity until the target burnup of 51 GWd/t. Several other distinctions between U-Pu and Th-U fueled cores are identified by evaluating the sensitivity coefficients of keff, mass balance, and void coefficient. The effect of advanced iron alloy cladding (i.e., FeCrAl) on the performance of Pu conversion in MOX fueled cores is studied instead of using standard stainless-steel cladding. Variations in clad thickness and coolant-to-fuel volume ratio are also exercised. The use of FeCrAl instead of SS as a cladding alloy reduces the required Pu enrichment and improves the Pu conversion rate primarily due to the absence of nickel in the cladding alloy that results in the reduction of the neutron absorption. Also the difference in void coefficients between SS and FeCrAl alloys is nearly 500 pcm over the entire burnup range. The report also shows sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in order to characterize D 2 O cooled HCPWRs from different aspects. The uncertainties of integral parameters (keff and void coefficient) for selected reactor cores are evaluated at different burnup points in order to find similarities and trends respect to D 2 O-HCPWR.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Pathway Aggregation in the Risk Assessment of Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR&PP) of Nuclear Energy Systems

The framework for Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR & PP) evaluation is to define a set of challenges, to obtain the system responses, and to assess the outcomes. The assessment of outcomes heavily relies on pathways, defined as sequences of events or actions that could potentially be followed by a State or a group of individuals in order to achieve a proliferation objective, with the defined threats as initiating events. There may be large number of segments connecting pathway stages (e.g. acquisition, processing, and fabrication for PR) which can lead to even larger number of pathways or scenarios through possible different combinations of segment connections, each with associated probabilities contributing to the overall risk. Clustering of these scenarios in specified stage attribute intervals is important for their tractable analysis and outcome assessment. A software tool for scenario generation and clustering (OSUPR) is developed that utilizes the PRCALC code developed at the Brookhaven National Laboratory for scenario generation and the K- means, mean shift and adaptive mean shift algorithms as possible clustering schemes. The results of the study using the Example Sodium Fast Breeder as an example system show that clustering facilitates the probabilistic or deterministic analysis of scenarios to identify system vulnerabilities and communication of the major risk contributors to stakeholders. The results of the study also show that the mean shift algorithm has the most potential for assisting the analysis of the scenarios generated by PRCALC.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Numerical computation of Pop plot

The Pop plot — distance-of-run to detonation versus initial shock pressure — is a key characterization of shock initiation in a heterogeneous explosive. Reactive burn models for high explosives (HE) must reproduce the experimental Pop plot to have any chance of accurately predicting shock initiation phenomena. This report describes a methodology for automating the computation of a Pop plot for a specific explosive with a given HE model. Illustrative examples of the computation are shown for PBX 9502 with three burn models (SURF, WSD and Forest Fire) utilizing the xRage code, which is the Eulerian ASC hydrocode at LANL. Comparison of the numerical and experimental Pop plot can be the basis for a validation test or as an aid in calibrating the burn rate of an HE model. Issues with calibration are discussed.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗