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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Retrieval of Stratospheric Aerosol Size Distribution Parameters Using Satellite Solar Occultation Measurements at Three Wavelengths

In this work, a novel approach for the determination of the particle size distribution (PSD) parameters of stratospheric sulfate aerosols is presented. For this, ratios of extinction coefficients obtained from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station) solar occultation measurements at 449, 756 and 1544 nm were used to retrieve the mode width and median radius of a size distribution assumed to be monomodal lognormal. The estimated errors at the peak of the stratospheric aerosol layer, on average, lie between 20% and 25% for the median radius and 5% and 7% for the mode width. The results are consistent in magnitude with other retrieval results from the literature, but a robust comparison is difficult, mainly because of differences in temporal and spatial coverage. Other quantities like number density and effective radius were also calculated. A major advantage of the described method over other retrieval techniques is that both the median radius and the mode width can be retrieved simultaneously, without having to assume one of them. This is possible due to the broad wavelength spectrum covered by the SAGE III/ISS measurements. Also, the presented method – being based on the analysis of three wavelengths – allows unique solutions for the retrieval of PSD parameters for almost all of the observed extinction spectra, which is not the case when using only two spectral channels. In addition, the extinction coefficients from SAGE III/ISS solar occultation measurements, on which the retrieval is based, are calculated without a priori assumptions about the PSD. For those reasons, the data produced with the presented retrieval technique may be a valuable contribution for a better understanding of the variability of stratospheric aerosol size distributions, e.g. after volcanic eruptions. While this study focuses on describing the retrieval method, and a future study will discuss the PSD parameter data set produced in depth, some exemplary results for background conditions in June 2017 are shown.

Felix Wrana↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Prediction of the Experimental Transition Temperature of Fe(II) Spin-Crossover Complexes

Spin-crossover (SCO) complexes are materials that exhibit changes in the spin state in response to external stimuli, with potential applications in molecular electronics. It is challenging to know a priori how to design ligands to achieve the delicate balance of entropic and enthalpic contributions needed to tailor a transition temperature close to room temperature. Here, we leverage the SCO complexes from the previously curated SCO-95 data set [Vennelakanti et al. J. Chem. Phys. 159, 024120 (2023)] to train three machine learning (ML) models for transition temperature (T 1/2 ) prediction using graph-based revised autocorrelations as features. We perform feature selection using random forest-ranked recursive feature addition (RF-RFA) to identify the features essential to model transferability. Of the ML models considered, the full feature set RF and recursive feature addition RF models perform best, achieving moderate correlation to experimental T 1/2 values. We then compare ML T 1/2 predictions to those from three previously identified best-performing density functional approximations (DFAs) which accurately predict SCO behavior across SCO-95, finding that the ML models predict T 1/2 more accurately than the best-performing DFAs. In addition, we study ML model predictions for a set of 18 SCO complexes for which only estimated T 1/2 values are available. Upon excluding outliers from this set, the RF-RFA RF model shows a strong correlation to estimated T 1/2 values with a Pearson’s r of 0.82. In contrast, DFA-predicted T 1/2 values have large errors and show no correlation to estimated T 1/2 values over the same set of complexes. Overall, our study demonstrates slightly superior performance of ML models in comparison with some of the best-performing DFAs, and we expect ML models to improve further as larger data sets of SCO complexes are curated and become available for model training.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid screening of secondary aromatic metabolites in Populus trichocarpa leaves

Abstract Background High-throughput metabolomics analytical methodology is needed for population-scale studies of bioenergy-relevant feedstocks such as poplar ( Populus sp.). Here, the authors report the relative abundance of extractable aromatic metabolites in Populus trichocarpa leaves rapidly estimated using pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS). Poplar leaves were analyzed in conjunction with and validated by GC/MS analysis of extracts to determine key spectral features used to build PLS models to predict the relative composition of extractable aromatic metabolites in whole poplar leaves. Results The Pearson correlation coefficient for the relative abundance of extractable aromatic metabolites based on ranking between GC/MS analysis and py-MBMS analysis of the Boardman leaf set was 0.86 with R 2 = 0.76 using a simplified prediction approach from select ions in MBMS spectra. Metabolites most influential to py-MBMS spectral features in the Clatskanie set included the following compounds: catechol, salicortin, salicyloyl-coumaroyl-glucoside conjugates, α-salicyloylsalicin, tremulacin, as well as other salicylates, trichocarpin, salicylic acid, and various tremuloidin conjugates. Ions in py-MBMS spectra with the highest correlation to the abundance of extractable aromatic metabolites as determined by GC/MS analysis of extracts, included m/z 68, 71, 77, 91, 94, 105, 107, 108, and 122, and were used to develop the simplified prediction approach without PLS models or a priori measurements. Conclusions The simplified py-MBMS method is capable of rapidly screening leaf tissue for relative abundance of extractable aromatic secondary metabolites to enable prioritization of samples in large populations requiring comprehensive metabolomics that will ultimately inform plant systems biology models and advance the development of optimized biomass feedstocks for renewable fuels and chemicals.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Stochastic Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

Here, we propose a predictor-corrector adaptive method for the study of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under uncertainty. Constructed around the framework of stochastic finite volume (SFV) methods, our approach circumvents sampling schemes or simulation ensembles while also preserving fundamental properties, in particular hyperbolicity of the resulting systems and conservation of the discrete solutions. Furthermore, we augment the existing SFV theory with a priori convergence results for statistical quantities, in particular push-forward densities, which we demonstrate through numerical experiments. By linking refinement indicators to regions of the physical and stochastic spaces, we drive anisotropic refinements of the discretizations, introducing new degrees of freedom where deemed profitable. To illustrate our proposed method, we consider a series of numerical examples for nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs based on Burgers’ and Euler’s equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimated accuracy of ground-based liquid water measurements during FIRE

Since on goal of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) project is to improve our understanding of the relationships between cloud microphysics and cloud reflectivity, it is important that the accuracy of remote liquid measurements by microwave radiometry be thoroughly understood. The question is particularly relevant since the uncertainty in the absolute value of the radiometric liquid measurement is greatest at low liquid water contents (less than 0.1 mm). However it should be stressed that although uncertainty exists in the absolute value of liquid, it is well known that the observed radiometric signal is proportional to the amount of liquid in the antenna beam. As a result, changes in amounts of liquid are known to greater accuracy than the absolute value, which may contain a bias. Here, an assessment of the liquid measurement accuracy attained at San Nicolas Island (SNI) is presented. The vapor and liquid water data shown were computed from the radiometric brightness temperatures using statistical retrieval algorithms. The retrieval coefficients were derived from the 69 soundings made by Colorado State University during the SNI observations. Sources of error in the vapor and liquid measurements include cross-talk in the retrieval algorithms (not a factor at low liquid contents), uncertainties in the brightness temperature measurement, and uncertainties in the vapor and liquid attenuation coefficients. The relative importance of these errors is discussed. For the retrieval of path-integrated liquid water, the greatest uncertainty is caused by the temperature dependence of the absorption at microwave frequencies. As a result, the accuracy of statistical retrieval of liquid depends to large measure upon how representative the a priori radiosonde data are of the conditions prevailing during the measurements. The microwave radiometer measurements at SNI were supplemented by an infrared (IR) radiometer modified for measurement of cloud-base temperature. Thus, the IR system provides the means to incorporate continuous measurements of the liquid temperature into the retrieval process.

Snider, Jack B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

TAT-C: A Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations

Under a changing technological and economic environment, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA Earth Science missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: Which type of constellations should be chosen? How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI and formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator, which in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules generates multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. UI will include Graphical, Command Line and Application Programmer Interfaces to respond to the demands of various levels of users expertise. Science inputs are grouped into various mission concepts, satellite specifications, and payload specifications, while science outputs are grouped into several types of metrics - spatial, temporal, angular and radiometric. Orbit Coverage leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data that are passed to Reduction Metrics. Then, for each architecture design, Cost Risk will provide estimates of the cost and life cycle cost as well as technical and cost risk of the proposed mission. Additionally, the Knowledge Base module is a centralized store of structured data readable by humans and machines. It will support both TAT-C analysis when composing new mission concepts from existing model inputs, and TAT-C exploration when discovering new mission concepts by querying previous results.

Science Data Processing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the digital thread for physics-based prediction of microstructure heterogeneity in additively manufactured parts

A major limitation of additive manufacturing (AM) processes is that local conditions of material deposition frequently lead to unintentional heterogeneities in microstructure and properties within a single component, despite nominally uniform process conditions. Up to now, there has been no way to a priori determine the distribution of these heterogeneities, requiring expensive trial-and-error approaches to fabrication, testing, and characterization. Here, a physics-based framework for creating a digital representation of the laser powder bed fusion (PBF) process is proposed to predict the variation in solidification behavior that leads to heterogeneous microstructures in an as-built part. By leveraging in situ process data stored in the part’s digital thread, the scan path and process parameters were input into a heat transfer model which predicted solidification data at the melt pool scale. A two-step unsupervised clustering algorithm was used to first cluster the local solidification conditions (12.5µm 3 voxels) and then to cluster the regional behavior on the scale of multiple scan passes and print layers (250µm 3 super-voxels). This process was used to identify regions with similar solidification characteristics for multiple locations in a Stainless Steel 316-L component. The corresponding as-built part was sectioned and characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). Quantitative analysis of the pole figures confirmed that the predicted regions of heterogeneity in the solidification conditions corresponded with differences in the observed microstructure. In conclusion, this work shows a viable path for estimating the microstructural heterogeneity for additively manufactured parts to either limit microstructural variation throughout a part or to enable functionality-based variation of the microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2015

Constraining Black Carbon Aerosol over Asia using OMI Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth and the Adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70degE-l50degE, 11degS-55degN) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem model and its adjoint for April and October of 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500%, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1-5%) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10-50% over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a. consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimate of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2016

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C)

Traditionally, space missions have relied on relatively large and monolithic satellites, but in the past few years, under a changing technological and economic environment, including instrument and spacecraft miniaturization, scalable launchers, secondary launches as well as hosted payloads, there is growing interest in implementing future NASA missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM). The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. In this first version of our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C), we are investigating questions such as: How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best costrisk value? The main goals of TAT-C are to: Handle multiple spacecraft sharing a mission objective, from SmallSats up through flagships, Explore the variables trade space for pre-defined science, cost and risk goals, and pre-defined metrics Optimize cost and performance across multiple instruments and platforms vs. one at a time.This paper describes the overall architecture of TAT-C including: a User Interface (UI) interacting with multiple users - scientists, missions designers or program managers; an Executive Driver gathering requirements from UI, then formulating Trade-space Search Requests for the Trade-space Search Iterator first with inputs from the Knowledge Base, then, in collaboration with the Orbit Coverage, Reduction Metrics, and Cost Risk modules, generating multiple potential architectures and their associated characteristics. TAT-C leverages the use of the Goddard Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) to compute coverage and ancillary data, streamlining the computations by modeling orbits in a way that balances accuracy and performance.TAT-C current version includes uniform Walker constellations as well as Ad-Hoc constellations, and its cost model represents an aggregate model consisting of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) from widely accepted models. The Knowledge Base supports both analysis and exploration, and the current GUI prototype automatically generates graphics representing metrics such as average revisit time or coverage as a function of cost.

Science Data Processing↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment for the ASCENDS Satellite Mission

Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 will benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent and future additions to the suite of in situ and remote CO2 measurement platforms. In particular, the planned NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) satellite mission will provide greater coverage in cloudy regions, at high latitudes, and at night than passive satellite systems, as well as high precision and accuracy. In a novel approach to quantifying the ability of satellite column measurements to constrain CO2 fluxes, we use a portable library of footprints (surface influence functions) generated by the WRF-STILT Lagrangian transport model in a regional Bayesian synthesis inversion. The regional Lagrangian framework is well suited to make use of ASCENDS observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution, in this case at 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude and weekly for North America. We consider random measurement errors only, modeled as a function of mission and instrument design specifications along with realistic atmospheric and surface conditions. We find that the ASCENDS observations could potentially reduce flux uncertainties substantially at biome and finer scales. At the 1 degree x 1 degree, weekly scale, the largest uncertainty reductions, on the order of 50 percent, occur where and when there is good coverage by observations with low measurement errors and the a priori uncertainties are large. Uncertainty reductions are smaller for a 1.57 micron candidate wavelength than for a 2.05 micron wavelength, and are smaller for the higher of the two measurement error levels that we consider (1.0 ppm vs. 0.5 ppm clear-sky error at Railroad Valley, Nevada). Uncertainty reductions at the annual, biome scale range from 40 percent to 75 percent across our four instrument design cases, and from 65 percent to 85 percent for the continent as a whole. Our uncertainty reductions at various scales are substantially smaller than those from a global ASCENDS inversion on a coarser grid, demonstrating how quantitative results can depend on inversion methodology. The a posteriori flux uncertainties we obtain, ranging from 0.01 to 0.06 Pg C yr-1 across the biomes, would meet requirements for improved understanding of long-term carbon sinks suggested by a previous study.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2014

Topics include: Data Fusion for Global Estimation of Forest Characteristics From Sparse Lidar Data; Debris and Ice Mapping Analysis Tool - Database; Data Acquisition and Processing Software - DAPS; Metal-Assisted Fabrication of Biodegradable Porous Silicon Nanostructures; Post-Growth, In Situ Adhesion of Carbon Nanotubes to a Substrate for Robust CNT Cathodes; Integrated PEMFC Flow Field Design for Gravity-Independent Passive Water Removal; Thermal Mechanical Preparation of Glass Spheres; Mechanistic-Based Multiaxial-Stochastic-Strength Model for Transversely-Isotropic Brittle Materials; Methods for Mitigating Space Radiation Effects, Fault Detection and Correction, and Processing Sensor Data; Compact Ka-Band Antenna Feed with Double Circularly Polarized Capability; Dual-Leadframe Transient Liquid Phase Bonded Power Semiconductor Module Assembly and Bonding Process; Quad First Stage Processor: A Four-Channel Digitizer and Digital Beam-Forming Processor; Protective Sleeve for a Pyrotechnic Reefing Line Cutter; Metabolic Heat Regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption; CubeSat Deployable Log Periodic Dipole Array; Re-entry Vehicle Shape for Enhanced Performance; NanoRacks-Scale MEMS Gas Chromatograph System; Variable Camber Aerodynamic Control Surfaces and Active Wing Shaping Control; Spacecraft Line-of-Sight Stabilization Using LWIR Earth Signature; Technique for Finding Retro-Reflectors in Flash LIDAR Imagery; Novel Hemispherical Dynamic Camera for EVAs; 360 deg Visual Detection and Object Tracking on an Autonomous Surface Vehicle; Simulation of Charge Carrier Mobility in Conducting Polymers; Observational Data Formatter Using CMOR for CMIP5; Propellant Loading Physics Model for Fault Detection Isolation and Recovery; Probabilistic Guidance for Swarms of Autonomous Agents; Reducing Drift in Stereo Visual Odometry; Future Air-Traffic Management Concepts Evaluation Tool; Examination and A Priori Analysis of a Direct Numerical Simulation Database for High-Pressure Turbulent Flows; and Resource-Constrained Application of Support Vector Machines to Imagery.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2021

Assessment of M2020 Terrain Relative Landing Accuracy: Flight Performance vs Predicts

Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) was a critical enabling Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) technology that enabled Mars 2020 mission Perseverance rover to land at Jezero crater. TRN pro-vides real-time, autonomous, map-relative position determination and generates a landing target based on a priori knowledge of hazards. The required performance for TRN was to land within 60m of the selected target. The required 60m was sub-allocated to various error sources in three major categories: targeting error, knowledge error, and control error. The targeting error is the error in selecting an appropriate landing target and the knowledge of the target on the surface. It includes the Lander Vision System (LVS) position localization with respect the ground, the synchronization between the Lander Vision System measurement and the main Navigation filter, and errors associated with the LVS Reference Map and Safe Target Selec-tion (STS). The knowledge error is the contribution of knowledge growth from the synchronization with LVS to touchdown. The control error encompasses how accurately the system could stay on the desired reference trajectory. The TRN error budget uses a combination of analysis, simulation, and hardware test-ing results to bound the various error contributions obtained during the verification and validation process. This paper first presents a description the TRN system, focusing on the architecture of LVS and STS. The paper then gives detailed overview of the TRN error budget, with a description of the major error contribu-tions in each of the three categories. Next, the paper gives the results for three versions of the error budget, pre-launch, in-flight pre-landing, and post-landing. The paper compares the pre-flight analysis, the pre-landing analysis using in-flight data during cruise, to the post-landing analysis of the TRN performance. Pre-landing analysis best estimate of the landing performance was 33m, compared to the 60m require-ment. Post-landing analysis estimated a landing accuracy of 8.53m or better, much better than the 33m pre-landing estimate. The actual post-landing imagery calculated the distance of the rover to the targeted location to be 5m. The post-landing analysis closely bounds the image-based assessment of landing accu-racy, indicating the success of the error budget architecture in bounding the landing accuracy, as well as the fidelity of the simulations used to model and predict performance.

Chen, Allen↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating Nighttime CALIOP 0.532 micron Aerosol Optical Depth and Extinction Coefficient Retrievals

NASA Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) Version 3.01 5-km nighttime 0.532 micron aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets from 2007 are screened, averaged and evaluated at 1 deg X 1 deg resolution versus corresponding/co-incident 0.550 micron AOD derived using the US Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS), featuring two-dimensional variational assimilation of quality-assured NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD. In the absence of sunlight, since passive radiometric AOD retrievals rely overwhelmingly on scattered radiances, the model represents one of the few practical global estimates available from which to attempt such a validation. Daytime comparisons, though, provide useful context. Regional-mean CALIOP vertical profiles of night/day 0.532 micron extinction coefficient are compared with 0.523/0.532 micron ground-based lidar measurements to investigate representativeness and diurnal variability. In this analysis, mean nighttime CALIOP AOD are mostly lower than daytime (0.121 vs. 0.126 for all aggregated data points, and 0.099 vs. 0.102 when averaged globally per normalised 1 deg. X 1 deg. bin), though the relationship is reversed over land and coastal regions when the data are averaged per normalised bin (0.134/0.108 vs. 0140/0.112, respectively). Offsets assessed within single bins alone approach +/- 20 %. CALIOP AOD, both day and night, are higher than NAAPS over land (0.137 vs. 0.124) and equal over water (0.082 vs. 0.083) when averaged globally per normalised bin. However, for all data points inclusive, NAAPS exceeds CALIOP over land, coast and ocean, both day and night. Again, differences assessed within single bins approach 50% in extreme cases. Correlation between CALIOP and NAAPS AOD is comparable during both day and night. Higher correlation is found nearest the equator, both as a function of sample size and relative signal magnitudes inherent at these latitudes. Root mean square deviation between CALIOP and NAAPS varies between 0.1 and 0.3 globally during both day/night. Averaging of CALIOP along-track AOD data points within a single NAAPS grid bin improves correlation and RMSD, though day/night and land/ocean biases persist and are believed systematic. Vertical profiles of extinction coefficient derived in the Caribbean compare well with ground-based lidar observations, though potentially anomalous selection of a priori lidar ratios for CALIOP retrievals is likely inducing some discrepancies. Mean effective aerosol layer top heights are stable between day and night, indicating consistent layer-identification diurnally, which is noteworthy considering the potential limiting effects of ambient solar noise during day.

aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2020

Online adaptive basis refinement and compression for reduced-order models via vector-space sieving

In many applications, projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs) have demonstrated the ability to provide rapid approximate solutions to high-fidelity full-order models (FOMs). However, there is no a priori assurance that these approximate solutions are accurate; their accuracy depends on the ability of the low-dimensional trial basis to represent the FOM solution. As a result, ROMs can generate inaccurate approximate solutions, e.g., when the FOM solution at the online prediction point is not well represented by training data used to construct the trial basis. To address this fundamental deficiency of standard model-reduction approaches, this work proposes a novel online-adaptive mechanism for efficiently enriching the trial basis in a manner that ensures convergence of the ROM to the FOM, yet does not incur any FOM solves. The mechanism is based on the previously proposed adaptive $h$-refinement method for ROMs, but improves upon this work in two crucial ways. First, the proposed method enables basis refinement with respect to any orthogonal basis (not just the Kronecker basis), thereby generalizing the refinement mechanism and enabling it to be tailored to the physics characterizing the problem at hand. Second, the proposed method provides a fast online algorithm for periodically compressing the enriched basis via an efficient proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method, which does not incur any operations that scale with the FOM dimension. We report these two features allow the proposed method to serve as (1) a failsafe mechanism for ROMs, as the method enables the ROM to satisfy any prescribed error tolerance online (even in the case of inadequate training), and (2) an efficient online basis-adaptation mechanism, as the combination of basis enrichment and compression enables the basis to adapt online while controlling its dimension.

42 ENGINEERING↗