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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

North American Winter Dipole: Observed and Simulated Changes in Circulations

In recent years, a pair of large-scale circulation patterns consisting of an anomalous ridge over northwestern North America and trough over northeastern North America was found to accompany extreme winter weather events such as the 2013–2015 California drought and eastern U.S. cold outbreaks. Referred to as the North American winter dipole (NAWD), previous studies have found both a marked natural variability and a warming-induced amplification trend in the NAWD. In this study, we utilized multiple global reanalysis datasets and existing climate model simulations to examine the variability of the winter planetary wave patterns over North America and to better understand how it is likely to change in the future. We compared between pre- and post-1980 periods to identify changes to the circulation variations based on empirical analysis. It was found that the leading pattern of the winter planetary waves has changed, from the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode to a spatially shifted mode such as NAWD. Further, the potential influence of global warming on NAWD was examined using multiple climate model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Prescribing Stratospheric Chemistry Overestimates Southern Hemisphere Climate Change During Austral Spring in Response to Quadrupled CO2

The interaction of stratospheric chemistry with a changing climate from an abrupt CO2 quadrupling is assessed using the coupled atmosphere–ocean Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). Two abrupt 4 × CO2 experiments were performed, one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with a prescribed stratospheric chemistry that does not simulate stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. The interactive and prescribed chemistry experiments simulate similar global mean surface temperature change. Nevertheless, interactive chemistry is critical to capture the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric midlatitude jet response to 4 × CO2. When stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2 is neglected, GEOSCCM overestimates Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation change. This stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact has large seasonal variability. During the austral spring season September–October–November (SON), prescribed chemistry yields a stronger poleward shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric jet, surface wind stress, and the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation than occurs with interactive chemistry. In other seasons interactive and prescribed chemistry have similar effects on the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The seasonality of stratospheric chemistry-induced climate impact is related to the seasonality of Antarctic lower stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2. In contrast to this stratospheric ozone response to 4 × CO2, stratospheric ozone recovery from decline of the ozone depleting substances has its largest impact on the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation in austral summer (December–January–February), but no effects in SON. It is found that the different seasonality for these two stratospheric ozone layer change scenarios is related to the different seasonality of tropopause meridional temperature gradient response.

Stratospheric ozone feedback↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shifts in hydropower operation to balance wind and solar will modify effects on aquatic biota

To avoid negative consequences to freshwater biota from climate change, society must complete the transition from fossil to renewable electricity sources. However, temporal patterns in hydropower generation (and flow releases that affect aquatic biota) may change with increased wind and solar penetration. We used power cost modeling to characterize current and future within-day and seasonal patterns in hydropower generation across the Eastern Interconnection in a wet and a dry year. Compared to the baseline, future hydropower generation across the grid decreased during the day and increased before dawn and after dusk. At a project level, such a pattern would suggest 'double peaking' operation (up- and down-ramping before dawn and after dusk, with lower releases midday). Variation in generation was higher in wet years than dry years, foreshadowing possible flow constraints on hydropower flexibility. At the grid scale, projected ramping rates were higher in all seasons. A review of the ecological literature suggests that these changes would shift the timing of invertebrate drift and elevate the risk of nest scouring during up-ramping and the risk of stranding or dewatering during down ramping. Thermal conditions may be moderated by increased ramping. Strategies for adapting to future shifts in the renewable portfolio range from re-regulation in reservoir cascades to providing flow refuge (structures and vegetation) below individual projects. Coordinated basin-scale operation can distribute peaking operation to maintain grid support while restricting local ramping at critical ecological times. In addition, research to design hybrid renewable systems that add battery storage is needed to understand how we can mitigate future risks to aquatic communities while promoting the use of renewable energy. This study, which is among the first to examine ecological side-effects of the shift to renewable energy in freshwater ecosystems, lays out a path toward understanding and navigating changes to flow regimes under the energy transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

CO2 induced climatic change and spectral variations in the outgoing terrestrial infrared radiation

The published temperature changes produced in general circulation model simulations of CO2 induced climate modification are used to compute the top of the atmosphere, clear sky outgoing infrared radiance changes expected for doubled CO2. A significant wavenumber shift is produced, with less radiance emerging in the 500-800 per cm (20.0-12.5 micron) CO2 band and with more emerging in the 800-1200 per cm (12.5-8.3 micron) window. The effect varies greatly with latitude. The radiance shift in the 2300 per cm (4.3 micron) region is of the order of 10-30 percent for doubled CO2. It is suggested that the 2300 per cm region be carefully monitored as an aid in detecting the climatic effects of increasing CO2. The change in the wavenumber-integrated radiant exitance is at most a few percent.

Charlock, T. P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water availability modulates maximum canopy heights of low-elevation Amazonian second-growth forests

Tropical second-growth forests of the Amazon sequester large amounts of carbon and are important carbon sinks, contributing substantially to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and providing crucial ecosystem services. Deforestation due to selective logging and shifting cultivation is expanding second-growth forest areas in tropical forest regions, which if well managed, regenerate rapidly over time. Maximum forest canopy height is an important metric of biomass and carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and is strongly influenced by water availability. The water limitation hypothesis explains the positive influence of water availability on maximum tree heights and has been examined and demonstrated at a small-scale using field data, and at a global scale, with limited accuracy, using remote sensing data in tropical ecosystems. However, this hypothesis concerning maximum canopy height has not been much studied at regional and national scales for tropical second-growth forests. In this study, we leveraged NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar data across the Brazilian Amazon and derived second-growth forest relative height metrics for delineating the influence of water availability, second-growth forest age, and topographic elevation on maximum canopy height. Water availability was found to significantly influence the maximum canopy height of second-growth forest trees, of age range from 30 to 35 years, at elevations less than 500 m and maximum precipitation thresholds of 1500 mm. Our results indicate that changing precipitation patterns or increased drought conditions under different climate change regimes could impact forest structure, plant communities, ecosystem functioning, and carbon sequestration capabilities of tropical second-growth forests in the Amazon.

Carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mixed Ionic Electronic Conducting Quaternary Perovskites: Materials by Design for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

The innovative research conducted by Arizona State University and Princeton University in the project "Mixed Ionic-Electronic Conducting Quaternary Perovskites: Materials by Design for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen" marks a significant stride forward in thermochemical water splitting. Through an intricate blend of computational design and experimental validation, the project delved into the promising potential of Mixed Ionic Electronic Conducting (MIEC) perovskites. These complex materials, characterized by their unique redox-active nature and adaptability in stoichiometry, present a promising frontier for efficient solar thermochemical hydrogen production. Firstly, the research enhanced the science by utilizing state-of-the-art computational methodologies to unravel the nuanced chemical potentials of MIEC perovskites. By simulating various off-stoichiometric scenarios and redox conditions, the team was able to predict material behaviors under diverse environmental conditions, a feat unachievable through conventional experimental methodologies alone. This approach not only fast-tracks the material screening process, significantly reducing the time from laboratory re-search to practical application, but also uncovers trends and correlations that are pivotal for future materials innovation. Regarding technical effectiveness, the project stands out in its economic feasibility. Traditional methods of materials discovery are often marred by high costs and extensive timeframes, owing to the iterative nature of experimental processes. However, by employing theoretical computations and validating these findings with targeted experiments, the project introduced a cost-effective paradigm for materials discovery and the first ever prediction, synthesis, and preliminary validation of a material solely from computational and theoretical considerations. This synergy between computation and experimentation expedites the discovery of optimal materials conducive to high-efficiency solar-to-hydrogen conversion processes. Furthermore, the public stands to benefit substantially from this research. The success of MIEC perovskites in solar thermochemical applications heralds a shift towards lower cost and lower electricity input for clean hydrogen production, hence potentially impacting climate and energy resilience. By improving the efficiency of solar-to-hydrogen conversions, the research paves the way for reduced dependency on fossil fuels, addressing the urgent global need for accessible and renewable energy sources. Moreover, the project's advancements contribute to scientific literacy in renewable energy technologies, empowering society through knowledge and spurring future innovations. In essence, this research project demonstrates significant progress in the realm of advanced water splitting through solar thermochemistry. Through its groundbreaking approaches in computational materials science and its implications for real-world applications, it holds the promise of a cleaner, more energy-resilient future.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2013

Phylogenetic Conservatism in Plant Phenology

Phenological events defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.

phylogenetic conservatism↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbon content of soil fractions varies with season, rainfall, and soil fertility across a lowland tropical moist forest gradient

Tropical forests contain some of the largest soil carbon (C) stocks on Earth, making them broadly relevant to terrestrial-climate feedbacks, yet our understanding of how their soil organic C (SOC) fractions vary over space and time is limited. We studied effects of season, fertility, and mean annual precipitation (MAP) on the C contents of soil fractions across 14 lowland forests in Panama. We measured free-debris, occluded-debris, and mineral-associated SOC fractions, as well as soluble C associated with each fraction. We hypothesized that mineral-associated SOC would be greatest in infertile, strongly weathered soils with large reactive mineral contents. We also hypothesized that the debris SOC fractions would accumulate during the dry season, reflecting seasonal increases in litterfall. To address this, we compared soil fractions in wet and dry seasons from fertile and infertile soils across a range of 1809 – 2864 mm MAP. The C content (mg C / g soil) of all soil fractions varied with fertility and MAP: specifically, free-debris SOC was greatest in wet, high-fertility soils, and occluded-debris SOC was greater in high-fertility than low-fertility soils. The mineral-associated SOC fraction, which contained the majority of bulk soil C, showed increasing C content with greater MAP in infertile sites, presumably driving similar spatial patterns in the bulk soil. Only the free-debris SOC fraction showed strong seasonal variation, increasing in mass during the dry season. Nitrogen behaved similarly to C. In summary, soil C contents increased with MAP in infertile sites but not fertile sites, driven by the mineral-associated SOC fraction. The dry season had greater free-debris SOC, but this seasonal trend was not apparent in bulk soil C, likely because of the small size of the free-debris SOC fraction. Furthermore, changes in the quantity and seasonality of precipitation, which are projected for tropical forests, might shift spatial and temporal patterns of soil C storage, which would in turn influence forest-climate feedbacks for this C-rich biome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies

A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is a pivotal element of any strategy for limiting global warming to well below 2 °C. Previous studies have shown substantial flexibility in technology choice for achieving near carbon-free electricity supply. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative power sector decarbonization strategies compare on the system level in terms of non-climate environmental impacts. While all strategies yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those focusing on nuclear and CCS, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, an increase in land requirements, chiefly for bioenergy, exacerbates non-climate ecosystem damage from power supply in all decarbonization scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model

A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Asynchronous nitrogen supply and demand produce nonlinear plant allocation responses to warming and elevated CO 2

Terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change are mediated by complex plant–soil feedbacks that are poorly understood, but often driven by the balance of nutrient supply and demand. We actively increased aboveground plant-surface temperature, belowground soil temperature, and atmospheric CO 2 in a brackish marsh and found nonlinear and nonadditive feedbacks in plant responses. Changes in root-to-shoot allocation by sedges were nonlinear, with peak belowground allocation occurring at +1.7 °C in both years. Above 1.7 °C, allocation to root versus shoot production decreased with increasing warming such that there were no differences in root biomass between ambient and +5.1 °C plots in either year. Elevated CO 2 altered this response when crossed with +5.1 °C, increasing root-to-shoot allocation due to increased plant nitrogen demand and, consequently, root production. We suggest these nonlinear responses to warming are caused by asynchrony between the thresholds that trigger increased plant nitrogen (N) demand versus increased N mineralization rates. The resulting shifts in biomass allocation between roots and shoots have important consequences for forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate change and understanding global trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temporal changes in global soil respiration since 1987

As the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux, soil respiration (R S ) has been stimulated by climate warming. However, the magnitude and dynamics of such stimulations of soil respiration are highly uncertain at the global scale, undermining our confidence in future climate projections. Here, we present an analysis of global R S observations from 1987–2016. R S increased (P < 0.001) at a rate of 27.66 g C m -2 yr -2 (equivalent to 0.161 Pg C yr -2 ) in 1987–1999 globally but became unchanged in 2000–2016, which were related to complex temporal variations of temperature anomalies and soil C stocks. However, global heterotrophic respiration (R h ) derived from microbial decomposition of soil C increased in 1987–2016 (P < 0.001), suggesting accumulated soil C losses. Given the warmest years on records after 2015, our modeling analysis shows a possible resuscitation of global R S rise. This study of naturally occurring shifts in R S over recent decades has provided invaluable insights for designing more effective policies addressing future climate challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart Ventilation Controls for Occupancy and Auxiliary Fan Use Across U.S. Climates

Smart Ventilation has been developed as a way to reduce the energy associated with ventilation by changing when ventilation happens and how much ventilation occurs at any given time. In high performance buildings with low envelope and appliance related loads, ventilation is becoming a bigger part of the total building energy use and needs to be addressed if performance targets are to be met. This work explores the development and performance of smart ventilation controls based on occupancy and auxiliary fan operation that provide annual dwelling unit ventilation equivalence to ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2016. A prototype high performance home compliant with U.S. DOE Building America Zero Energy Ready program requirements was simulated using the REGCAP tool with and without smart controls across 15 U.S. DOE climate zones. Balanced and unbalanced IAQ fans were independently simulated, and all smart controlled fans had airflows double the reference 62.2-2016 airflow. Three idealized occupancy patterns were examined: 1st shift (a typical daily work/school absence), an extended 1st shift with more time spent out of the home evenings and weekends and 3rd shift (night work). The Occupancy controller turns the IAQ fan off during unoccupied periods, and it resumes ventilation upon their return. While unoccupied, contaminants are allowed to accumulate in the space, because occupants are not exposed to these contaminants. When occupants return home, they are exposed to these higher contaminant concentrations, and the controller increases the ventilation rate sufficiently to ensure equivalence with a continuous IAQ fan. Accounting for pollutant emissions that occur during unoccupied periods (as required by ASHRAE 62.2-2016), sharply distinguishes our occupancy controls from past Demand Controlled Ventilation systems. This new accounting method results in equivalent contaminant exposure, as well as lower reductions in average ventilation rates and lower energy savings. Smart controls were demonstrated that saved HVAC energy (i.e., avoided heating/cooling load, as well as fan energy)—averaging between 6 and 46% of ventilation-related energy use depending on the control strategy and occupancy pattern assumptions. The greatest savings were in the combined Auxiliary Fan + Occupancy control. Energy savings increased with climate heating demand and longer unoccupied time periods. The 3rd shift occupancy pattern had better performance, due to the thermal benefit of reducing the ventilation rate during the cold nighttime hours. This same effect provided a cooling energy benefit in hotter locations for the 1st shift. Overall, savings from occupancy-based smart controls were low, because of the recovery period required after occupants return home, during which the airflow is double the 62.2 reference. This recovery is required to maintain equivalence with the ASHRAE standard. Occupancy-based control performance was improved when combined with sensing auxiliary fans and when providing a pre-occupancy flush out of one- or two-hours. Performance was similarly improved if the ASHRAE Standard were to recognize that pollutant emissions are lower during unoccupied periods, iii allowing a lower target ventilation rate during unoccupied periods (not currently in the standard) (see Full vs. Half AEQ in this report). Finally, over-sized unbalanced fans that are cycled on-and-off by a smart controller (or timer) were found to substantially increase annual average air exchange and energy use relative to a continuous unbalanced fan due to the effects of superposition with natural infiltration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Pathways for urgent action towards climate resilient development

There is a closing window of opportunity to ensure a sustainable future for all, with deep and rapid action needed this decade. Inclusive and just climate resilient development advances sustainable development and keeps open pathways to a liveable planet but requires urgent and fundamental shifts in prevailing development politics and practice.

Climate-change mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2022

The nitrogen gap in soil health concepts and fertility measurements

Soil nitrogen (N) often limits productivity in agroecosystems, prompting fertilizer applications that increase crop yields but can degrade the environment. Nitrogen's dual role in both productivity and environmental quality should center it in soil health frameworks. We use recent evidence to argue that N availability is an emergent property of the integrated soil biogeochemical system and is strongly influenced by plant traits and their interactions with microbes and minerals. Building upon this, we theorize that the sources of plant and microbial N shift across soil health gradients, from inorganic N dependence in ecologically simple systems with poor soil health to a highly networked supply of organic N in healthy soils; ergo, investments in soil health should increase ecological complexity and the pathways by which plants can access N, leading to more resilient nutrient supplies and yields in a variable climate. However, current N assessment methods derive from a historical emphasis on inorganic N pool sizes and are unable to capture the shifting drivers of N availability across soil health gradients. We highlight the need to better understand the plant-microbial-mineral interactions that regulate bioavailable N as a first step to improving our ability to measure it. We conclude it will be necessary to harness agroecosystem complexity, account for plant and microbial drivers, and carefully integrate external N inputs into soils' internal N network to expand the routes by which N from organic pools can be made bioavailable. Finally, by emphasizing N in soil health concepts, we argue that researchers can accelerate advances in N use efficiency and resiliency.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗