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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Determination of Scale Bar for AGHCF Metallography Data

The DOE Nuclear Energy Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Fast Reactor Program (FRP) has supported the development of several databases containing information on the safety performance of fast reactors, components, and fuels. This growing collection of legacy experimental data, operating data, and analysis is available online to registered users. Metallography data represents one of the most critical types of post-irradiation examination (PIE) data being collected, organized, and archived in several ART Fast Reactor Databases (https://frdb.ne.anl.gov), including the Metallic Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD), Out-of-Pile Transient Database (OPTD), and TREAT (the Transient Reactor Test Facility) Experimental Relational Database (TREXR). These databases contain three principal sets of metallography data. The first set comprises metallography data from Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) and Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) irradiated fuel pins examined in the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF). The second set consists of metallography data from EBR-II irradiated fuel pins examined in the Alpha-Gamma Hot Cell Facility (AGHCF). The third set includes metallography data from transient-tested fuel pins (including both out-of-pile furnace tests and TREAT tests) examined in AGHCF. Since both the second and third sets were generated in AGHCF, they are governed by identical specifications. The metallography data in the databases consist of digital images scanned from either positive or negative photographic films. To analyze the microstructure of a fuel pin, a series of preparatory steps are required, including sectioning, epoxy mounting, mechanical grinding and polishing, and etching. Following sample preparation, specimens are transferred for metallographic examination. The AGHCF and HFEF metallography data were generated using optical microscopes manufactured by Leitz and Bausch and Lomb (B&L). Images were recorded on Polaroid film at preset magnifications. Magnification verification for the Leitz and B&L metallographs was conducted every two months prior to 1989 and at least every six months from 1989 through the conclusion of the IFR program. Magnifications determined from imaging of microslide standards were compared to the instrument settings for magnifications ranging from 50× to 500×. If the magnifications determined from standards deviated from the instrument settings, adjustments were made to the bellows extension until agreement was achieved. The specifications for AGHCF and HFEF legacy metallography data have been established based on available hard-copy and digital records, most of which have been incorporated into the data repositories associated with FIPD, OPTD, and TREXR. Detailed specifications including hard-copy records, digitized records, cutting diagrams and sectioning schemes, high-magnification photographs, photomosaics (composites), information tags, scale bars, and magnification verification procedures can be found in a separate report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Cost and Efficiency of the Scalable Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Power System

The objective of this project was to design and develop a 20kW range small-scale solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) power system for applications such as data centers and commercial buildings. The original plan included a 5,000 hours demonstration and a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) which were dropped as part of project termination. The original project plan was to use a stack with a cross-flow cell design which had previously been tested for 500 hours at a community college in Malta, NY. However, it was decided to move to the advanced R-SOFC co-flow cell developed under Department of Energy Award DE-FE0031971. The advanced cell design has the advantage of a larger active area for the same manufacturing footprint which results in fewer required cells for the same stack power, hence a higher volumetric power density (kW/L) and lower cost per kW than the original cross-flow cell design. A full SOFC system Simulink model was developed and calibrated with testing data from a fuel cell stack and BOP (balance of plant) components. The simulation results from the calibrated model showed an acceptable match with the experimental data. A structural analysis conducted for various load scenarios indicated no high stress areas for all spatial directions. Major electrical system components were acquired, built and successfully tested. System sensors were verified and validated against controls. Safety checks, a diagnostic check, PID tuning, and control software commissioning tasks were also conducted. The power electronics prototype was delivered and trial testing completed. Balance of Plant component testing and simulation work was conducted to characterize Reformer-Heat Exchanger heat transfer and backpressure and reformer catalyst methane conversion and product selectivity. Simulations were conducted to design the Anode and Cathode fluid passages and size the air-air and fuel-fuel heat exchangers. A Burner operation map was created from test data and the Anode Gas Recirculation blower was tested to evaluate its durability. The SOFC system used a horizontal style design where components sit directly on a casting with a direct connection to the skid. This design has efficient packaging and a small footprint with approximate dimensions of 750 mm x 700 mm x 1700 mm. An SOFC system was built and successfully tested at the Malta, NY facility The system for over 500 hours under load of which over 300 hours was at full load of 20 kW.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

MLSPICE: Machine Learning based SPICE Modeling Platform for Power Magnetics

Electrical power converters are critical to a wide range of applications ranging from renewable integration to transportation electrification, and can be a key factor determining the size, weight, and efficiency of energy conversion systems. Magnetic components are typically the largest and least efficient components in power electronics. While there have been major strides in the modeling and analysis of power semiconductor devices and circuit simulations, the necessary advances in the design of power magnetics have lagged. In this project, we have transformed the modeling and design of power magnetics with machine learning enabled methods and catalyze simultaneous disruptive improvements for ML-based power electronics design tools. A fully automated open-source machine learning based magnetics modeling platform – the MagNet project - with innovations in full stack have been developed to greatly accelerate the design process and provide new insights to magnetic material and geometry design. The ARPA-E funded MagNet platform contains three major building blocks: 1) a ML-Integrated Data Acquisition System (MIDAS): a highly automated data acquisition testbed which is capable of measuring a large number of magnetic cores with a wide range of electrical circuit excitations; 2) a ML-integrated Core Loss Model (MICLM): a machine-learning trained modeling method for modeling the core loss and saturation effects of magnetic materials for arbitrary excitation waveforms; 3) ML-guided Magnetics SPICE Simulation Tool (PMSPICE): a fully integrated CAD tool which can simulate the magnetics in SPICE. It can help the designers to quickly model the linear and non-linear characteristics of magnetic components and evaluate their behavior in SPICE simulations. The developed MagNet system has fully demonstrated the proposed performance target and has been open sourced to the entire power electronics community to advance the modeling and design of power magnetics from many different angles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

ARCADE (Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment)

SAND2025-11780O ARCADE (Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment) software performs cybersecurity experiments on Defensive Cyber Security Architectures (DCSA) for Distributed Control Systems (DCSs). The application is integrated into a cohesive environment that performs cyber risk analyses and reduces costs. ARCADE can investigate the entire cyber-attack surface of a DCS from the physics of control, down to the firmware of individual components with automated efficiency. ARCADE has five major functional components: the Data Broker system, the virtualization environment, the cyber-attack simulator, the cyber-physical analysis system, and the physics simulator. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Valme, Romuald↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolved Gas Analysis–Mass Spectrometry Exposes Polymer Network Structures

Polymer network structures in epoxy thermosets play an important role in the final thermoset material properties. However, analytical characterization of these network structures is difficult due to their amorphous nature. In this work, the application of evolved gas analysis–mass spectrometry (EGA-MS) to characterize the polymer network structures of bisphenol A (BPA)-based thermosets is demonstrated. Analytical characterization of the polymer network structures is accomplished by monitoring the Product-Specific Kinetics (PSK) of BPA monomer formation during thermal degradation investigations. We relate observed differences in the activation energy (E a ) of BPA monomer formation to the local packing environment around the BPA monomer units within the polymer network. Variations in the local environment related to the polymer networks manifest qualitatively as broadening in the thermal profile of the BPA monomer evolution and quantitatively as changes in the activation energy (E a ). Three BPA thermoset formulations were investigated; two amine-cured thermoset with 4,4′-diaminodiphenylmethane (DDM) or poly(propylene glycol) bis(2-amino-propyl ether) (PPG400) and a homopolymerized thermoset via curing with Epikure 3253 catalyst (3253). Results revealed that the 3253 thermoset contained two distinct packing densities in the polymer network, while DDM and PPG400 thermosets had uniform distributions of packing densities. Results from the DDM thermoset revealed a gradually decreasing E a , while the apparent E a of PPG400 was consistent over the entire degradation. Furthermore, these differences in E a were concluded to stem from the flexibility of the corresponding polymer networks and the ability of the network components to rearrange and occupy formed voids. Due to the minimal sample required for analysis (100–200 μg), this EGA-MS technique has great potential for postproduction evaluation of composite parts to identify changes in the polymer networks from use and aging, which could signal compromised performance.

Degradation↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Semi-Volatile Organic Aerosol Contributions Associated with Ammonium Nitrate in the Coastal Urban Environment

Organic components often contribute 50% or more of the submicron aerosol mass in coastal urban environments, but their partitioning between the gas and particle phases is controlled by a complex mixture of unidentified organic compounds that are poorly constrained by observations. This study compares daily filter organic functional groups (OFG) with online organic mass fragments from La Jolla, California, as part of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE), quantifying the contributions of four types of non-volatile (NV) organic emission sources to the submicron composition. Daily filters retained only 0.79–0.98 µg/m3 NV submicron organic mass concentration, even though 1.8–1.9 µg/m3 non-refractory (NR) submicron organic mass concentration was measured online. The 62–64% of measured NR submicron organic mass concentration that exceeded what remained on the filters after 23-hr sampling is interpreted as semi-volatile, consistent with the moderate correlation of the NR NV difference to NR ammonium, NR nitrate, and biomass burning-related NV and NR organic factors. The association between semi-volatile organic components and ammonium nitrate likely results from both co-emission and co-evaporation. Size-resolved filter analysis showed that NV organic mass concentration accounts for 68% of NR organic mass concentration for 0.5–1 µm dry diameter but account for 9.0% for 0.18–0.5 µm dry diameter showing the differences in volatility between particle modes. Importantly, volatility of organic components was size-dependent Information Classification: General and associated with ammonium nitrate and biomass burning, providing guidance for constraining atmospheric aerosol properties in global models.

Pelayo, Christian↗
DOE OSTI2025

Common Column Identification for Table Similarity Detection in Electrified Transportation Data Lakes

Electrified transportation often requires researchers and operators to interact with datasets from a wide range of sources and disciplines, such as transportation, power systems, public health, policies, and regulations. These datasets vary in quality and format, making it difficult to understand, preprocess, and identify key columns representing real-world entities or values for indexing and joining, which can negatively impact downstream analysis and operation. Existing solutions are limited, requiring extensive manual customization or data expertise to utilize. In this article, we propose a multi-layered approach to automatically identify key columns to expedite preprocessing and aid in analysis of electrified transportation data. Our method leverages a dynamic ontology to identify common fields and an information theory-based strategy for edge cases that are difficult to generalize. Evaluations on a number of datasets from data.gov and kaggle.com show improved performance of our methods over several baseline techniques, and our ablation analyses illustrate the efficacy of individual components of our method. Our case studies also demonstrate that our methods have the potential to improve analysis of electrified transportation data and aid in automatic integration of such datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Extracted Ingredients from Dairy Byproduct Using Dimethyl Ether

Whey permeate is a byproduct created in large quantities from the dairy industry with limited applications due to transportation and stability. Whey permeate is primarily comprised of water, carbohydrates, and minerals with minimal contribution of proteins. Various biomasses in food processing have utilized liquid dimethyl ether (DME) as a form of extraction for high-value ingredients and dewatering. DME is a growing interest in wastewater and biomass treatment due to it being a green solvent, ability to dissolve organic solvents, and miscibility with water. The current study is to determine if DME can effectively dewater whey permeate as well as recover components that can be further used in the food industry as a value-added ingredient. Analysis of the liquid extract and solid extract was evaluated with inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and solid extracts were further characterized with the application of a scanning electron microscope (SEM).

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technoeconomic Analysis of Microwave-Assisted Dry Reforming Integrated with Chemical Looping for Production of Methanol

Methanol is a key component in producing formaldehyde, acetic acid, and methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE) and supports a wide array of industries, including plastics, textiles, and automotive. It also plays a growing role in renewable energy solutions. However, the conventional production of methanol involves steam reforming of methane, which is very energy-intensive and produces significant quantities of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. In this research, a chemical looping scheme is combined with dry reforming of natural gas in a novel microwave reactor to produce an industrial quantity of methanol. A heat exchanger network is developed to substantially reduce hot and cold utility usage. The effect of the cost of purchasing carbon dioxide from an external source for dry reforming, the capital cost of the microwave reactor, and the cost of electricity on the net present value is analyzed. Technoeconomic comparison with the conventional industrial process that produces methanol via steam reforming of methane indicates that the chemical looping generates a significant positive net present value along with a substantial reduction in carbon dioxide emissions while producing methanol significantly below the U.S. Department of Energy’s goal of $800/ton.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Build-to-Replace Strategy to Reduce Operations and Maintenance Costs for Advanced Reactors

This paper targets the reduction of fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs for advanced reactor (AR) designs. This goal will be severely constrained if the underlying assumptions of O&M approaches and practices are not questioned and reexamined, especially today when changes can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Achieving a reduction in AR O&M costs requires a completely new way of thinking -a paradigm shift- not through incremental, technology-focused approaches alone. Here, we address this challenge by evaluating the impact of moving to a shorter design life for major structures, systems, and components and shorter, more predictable refurbishment cycles as modeled by the commercial airline industry: the build-to-replace approach. This paper provides a brief overview of this different mindset to O&M applied to ARs and it provided a set of analytical tools based on multi-objective optimization to identify the benefits of such an approach. In conclusion, we provide a direct example analysis of a build-to-replace scenario by identifying and evaluating scenarios for reduced system and component lifetimes and associated replacement and refurbishment schedules to evaluate impacts on O&M costs and other lifecycle elements, such as structure, system, and component reliability.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Development for the ACME Lab Modular Wall and A-Frame Assemblies

The structural frame used for conducting large structural tests was replaced by the ACME (Applied Combined Mechanical Environments) Lab in Building 860 of Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, NM. This new design required simulation and analysis to verify maximum loads and corresponding factors of safety. Two major assemblies which are part of the ACME Lab, the Modular Wall and A-Frame, were designed to operate with a multitude of components in various configurations and with varying loads. Simulations of the Modular Wall and A-Frame structures were performed through explicit analysis to determine safety factors for numerous loading scenarios. The Modular Wall had safety factors of 1.1 for the lateral, diagonal, and gusset loading conditions. The A-Frame had safety factors of 2 for all loading conditions simulated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design and Analysis of the Open-Surface Slow Li Flow Divertor and Comparison to the Fast Li Flow Divertor

In the ongoing U.S. project, “Liquid Metal Plasma Facing Components,” sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, efforts have been taken to develop two open-surface divertor designs for the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility using liquid lithium (Li) as a heat and particle flux removal media. The main focus of this study is the design and analysis of a slow (~1 mm/s) and thin (<1 mm) open-surface Li flow divertor with a Li-cooled substrate, which is then compared with an earlier design of a fast (up to 10 m/s) and thick (~0.5 cm) Li flow divertor with the substrate cooled with helium. The slow Li flow divertor design is based on the original LiWall concept developed at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. Such a thin and slow Li layer can remove the particle flux by reducing the recycling flux, while the heat flux is removed mainly through the heat sink located beneath. In the present study, the heat sink is provided through a Li cooling flow inside the substrate of reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel. By performing a multiphysics analysis with COMSOL that included liquid-metal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), heat transfer, and structural mechanics, the impact of various factors on the divertor heat removal capability, such as Li flow velocity, MHD effects, and inlet velocity boundary condition, were examined. Based on comparisons of the two divertor designs, it was shown that the fast-flow divertor significantly outperformed the slow-flow design, whose heat removal capability was limited to ~1 to 2 MW/m2.

Jiang, Yuchen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283280284)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intern Deliverable Poster; Arc Flash Analysis; Landon Palmer

This poster describes what arc flash is, and what causes it. The importance of arc flash analysis is discussed, including what incident energy/working distance mean. SKM Power*Tools is discussed as a means for performing an arc flash analysis and breaker coordination. Arc flash warning labels are explained, including why it is important that up to date information is present with any changes made to an electrical system. An example arc flash label is described to give readers a better understanding of key components.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tuning Shinkarev’s Bicycle: Separating the Parallel Cycles of Photosystem II Using Empirical Wavelet Transform

The oxygen-evolving complex (OEC) of Photosystem II (PSII) catalyzes light-driven water oxidation, a process necessary to sustain Earth’s atmospheric oxygen. Oxygen yields measured during single-turnover flash sequences exhibit period-four oscillations, which form the basis of the Joliot–Kok (S-state) model. However, when the oscillations of other processes contribute to the measured oxygen yield, fitting methods can conflate these signals and distort estimates of inefficiencies and initial S-state populations. To address this, we applied the empirical wavelet transform (EWT) as a model-independent method to separate overlapping oscillators and capture damping dynamics that are not well represented in Fourier analysis. We tested this framework on polarographic flash-oxygen traces from both our Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 thylakoid membrane preparations and archival datasets on Chlorella and isolated chloroplasts. EWT consistently resolves the expected period-four component alongside a distinct binary oscillation. Simulations suggest that fitting this isolated period-four signal recovers VZAD parameters more accurately than analysis of raw traces, yielding different estimates for S-state distributions and transition probabilities. Notably, this binary oscillation aligns closely with semiquinone dynamics predicted solely from period-four fit parameters. These findings indicate that EWT can effectively distinguish complex signals in oxygen evolution, offering a framework potentially applicable to other spectroscopic probes of the S-state cycle.

Ferrari, Nicholas [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accessing Transient Isomers in the Photoreaction of Metastable‐State Photoacid

The photoreaction of a metastable‐state photoacid (mPAH) generally involves multiple isomers with various connected pathways of photoinduced structural changes during a single reaction cycle. However, only a limited number of isomers have been identified experimentally so far owing to the inherent complexity in combination with the presence of various competing electronic and vibrational processes, as well as the constantly varying interactions between mPAH isomers and solvent molecules. Here, in this work, an optical spectroscopic study on a benzimidazole‐based mPAH, a novel photoacid using benzimidazole as the structural moiety with the active proton, is reported. Through measurements of linear absorption and steady‐state fluorescence in neat solvents and binary mixtures, a pronounced effect of neat water and its binary mixture with glycerol is discovered on the photoreaction of this benzimidazole‐mPAH, manifested by the remarkably distinct spectral responses to irradiation from that observed for an organic solution under identical conditions. Measurements of time‐ and frequency‐resolved fluorescence emission further enable to access transient isomers and the associated spectral characteristics from other competing electronic excited‐state relaxation processes. Spectral deconvolution analysis and time‐dependent density functional theory calculations are applied to separate distinct spectral components and access their potential origin.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗