Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “consequence management”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

From Diagnosis to Action: An Automated Failure Advisor for Human Deep Space Missions

The major goal of current space system development at NASA is to enable human travel to deep space locations such as Mars and asteroids. At that distance, round trip communication with ground operators may take close to an hour, thus it becomes unfeasible to seek ground operator advice for problems that require immediate attention, either for crew safety or for activities that need to be performed at specific times for the attainment of scientific results. To achieve this goal, major reliance will need to be placed on automation systems capable of aiding the crew in detecting and diagnosing failures, assessing consequences of these failures, and providing guidance in repair activities that may be required. We report here on the most current step in the continuing development of such a system, and that is the addition of a Failure Response Advisor. In simple terms, we have a system in place the Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS) to tell us what happened (failure diagnosis) and what happened because that happened (failure effects). The Failure Response Advisor will tell us what to do about it, how long until something must be done and why its important that something be done and will begin to approach the complex reasoning that is generally required for an optimal approach to automated system health management. This advice is based on the criticality and various timing elements, such as durations of activities and of component repairs, failure effects delay, and other factors. The failure advice is provided to operators (crew and mission controllers) together with the diagnostic and effects information. The operators also have the option to drill down for more information about the failure and the reasons for any suggested priorities.

spacecraft health maintenance↗

ARC-100 Reactor Security-by-Design Summary

This report applies the security-by-design methodology developed in a previous National Nuclear Security Administration–sponsored work to the Advanced Reactor Concepts 100 (ARC-100) sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) design. The report contains no proprietary information specific to the ARC 100 reactor. The insights developed in this report are high-level, and generally applicable to other sodium fast reactor designs. The information presented here is the result of a qualitative safety-based analysis and would not inform any potential adversary beyond what would be found in a docketed safety analysis report. The scope of this present report covers ARC-100’s reactor core, used fuel storage, and used fuel assembly wash station. These systems are also compared to a generic SFR design assumed in the previous study. The security assessment results show changes in structures, systems, and components (SSCs) safety importance relative to the generic SFR SSCs. However, the consequence assessment results are the similar to a previously assessed generic SFR. Several SSCs have higher importance rankings than others, and it is recommended that protection efforts are prioritized for these SSCs. This work will continue in the Fiscal Year 2025 for the remaining ARC-100 systems, including cesium trap, sodium cold trap, noble gas decay tanks (dewar bottles), and used fuel dry storage facility, to provide safety-and-security-by-design insights and recommendations on non-core systems. Results from this work will furnish a technical justification for the feasibility of these solutions for the ARC reactor's design and, where applicable, identify any regulatory benefits conferred by the proactive design aspect within a risk management framework. This initiative will contribute to a more secure design of the ARC reactor and support its licensing process.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An approach to efficient mobility management in intelligent networks

Providing personal communication systems supporting full mobility require intelligent networks for tracking mobile users and facilitating outgoing and incoming calls over different physical and network environments. In realizing the intelligent network functionalities, databases play a major role. Currently proposed network architectures envision using the SS7-based signaling network for linking these DB's and also for interconnecting DB's with switches. If the network has to support ubiquitous, seamless mobile services, then it has to support additionally mobile application parts, viz., mobile origination calls, mobile destination calls, mobile location updates and inter-switch handovers. These functions will generate significant amount of data and require them to be transferred between databases (HLR, VLR) and switches (MSC's) very efficiently. In the future, the users (fixed or mobile) may use and communicate with sophisticated CPE's (e.g. multimedia, multipoint and multisession calls) which may require complex signaling functions. This will generate volumness service handling data and require efficient transfer of these message between databases and switches. Consequently, the network providers would be able to add new services and capabilities to their networks incrementally, quickly and cost-effectively.

Murthy, K. M. S.↗

Communication Research in Aviation and Space Operations: Symptoms and Strategies of Crew Coordination

The day-to-day operators of today's aerospace systems work under increasing pressures to accomplish more with less. They work in operational systems which are complex, technology-based, and high-risk; in which incidents and accidents have far-reaching and costly consequences. For these and other reasons, there is concern that the safety net formerly built upon redundant systems and abundant resources may become overburdened. Although we know that human ingenuity can overcome incredible odds, human nature can also fail in unpredictable ways. Over the last 20 years, a large percentage of aviation accidents and incidents have been attributed to human errors rather than hardware or environmental factors alone. A class of errors have been identified which are not due to a lack of individual, technical competencies. Rather, they are due to the failure of teams to utilize readily available resources or information in a timely fashion. These insights began a training revolution in the aviation industry called Cockpit Resource Management, which later became known as Crew Resource Management (CRM) as its concepts and applications extended to teams beyond the flightdeck. Then, as now, communication has been a cornerstone in CRM training since crew coordination and resource management largely resides within information transfer processes--both within flightcrews, and between flightcrews and the ground operations teams that support them. The research I will describe takes its roots in CRM history as we began to study communication processes in order to discover symptoms of crew coordination problems, as well as strategies of effective crew management. On the one hand, communication is often the means or the tool by which team members manage their resources, solve problems, maintain situational awareness and procedural discipline. Conversely, it is the lack of planning and resource management, loss of vigilance and situational awareness, and non-standard communications that are implicated in accidents and incidents. NASA/Ames Crew Factors researchers have been developing a model of effective crew coordination in order to understand the sources of performance breakdowns, and to develop effective solutions and interventions. Because communication is a primary mechanism by which information is received and transmitted, and because it is observable behavior, we focus on these group processes in order to identify patterns of communication that distinguish effective from less effective crew performance. Since a prime objective is to develop training recommendations for enhancing communication skills, we interpret our findings in the context of relevant task and environmental conditions, role and procedural constraints, and the normal real-time parameters of flight operations. Another research objective is to consider how communication and coordination can be enhanced through design. For example, flight deck and hardware design as well as procedural and software design may greatly influence the efficiency with which crews communicate and coordinate their work. In addition, teams and tasks may be designed, organized, and trained so that team interactions with each other are based upon appropriately shared knowledge, procedures and situation awareness. In short, we are interested in enhancing communication practices through (1) the training of specific communication skills, and (2) the design of equipment, tasks, procedures, and teams that optimize smooth, unambiguous communication processes. Two examples of communication research will be described; one in aviation and one in space operations. The first example is a high-fidelity full mission simulation study which investigates the affect of flightdeck automation on crew coordination and communication (contrasting crew performance in the DC-9 vs. MD88). Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗

Automated Target Planning for FUSE Using the SOVA Algorithm

The SOVA algorithm was originally developed under the Resilient Systems and Operations Project of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program from NASA s Aerospace Technology Enterprise as a conceptual framework to support real-time autonomous system mission and contingency management. The algorithm and its software implementation were formulated for generic application to autonomous flight vehicle systems, and its efficacy was demonstrated by simulation within the problem domain of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle autonomous flight management. The approach itself is based upon the precept that autonomous decision making for a very complex system can be made tractable by distillation of the system state to a manageable set of strategic objectives (e.g. maintain power margin, maintain mission timeline, and et cetera), which if attended to, will result in a favorable outcome. From any given starting point, the attainability of the end-states resulting from a set of candidate decisions is assessed by propagating a system model forward in time while qualitatively mapping simulated states into margins on strategic objectives using fuzzy inference systems. The expected return value of each candidate decision is evaluated as the product of the assigned value of the end-state with the assessed attainability of the end-state. The candidate decision yielding the highest expected return value is selected for implementation; thus, the approach provides a software framework for intelligent autonomous risk management. The name adopted for the technique incorporates its essential elements: Strategic Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA). Maximum value of the approach is realized for systems where human intervention is unavailable in the timeframe within which critical control decisions must be made. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite, launched in 1999, has been collecting science data for eight years.[1] At its beginning of life, FUSE had six gyros in two IRUs and four reaction wheels. Over time through various failures, the satellite has been left with one reaction wheel on the vehicle skew axis and two gyros. To remain operational, a control scheme has been implemented using the magnetic torque rods and the remaining momentum wheel.[2] As a consequence, there are attitude regions where there is insufficient torque authority to overcome environmental disturbances (e.g. gravity gradient torques). The situation is further complicated by the fact that these attitude regions shift inertially with time as the spacecraft moves through earth s magnetic field during the course of its orbit. Under these conditions, the burden of planning targets and target-to-target slew maneuvers has increased significantly since the beginning of the mission.[3] Individual targets must be selected so that the magnetic field remains roughly aligned with the skew wheel axis to provide enough control authority to the other two orthogonal axes. If the field moves too far away from the skew axis, the lack of control authority allows environmental torques to pull the satellite away from the target and can potentially cause it to tumble. Slew maneuver planning must factor the stability of targets at the beginning and end, and the torque authority at all points along the slew. Due to the time varying magnetic field geometry relative to any two inertial targets, small modifications in slew maneuver timing can make large differences in the achievability of a maneuver.

Heatwole, Scott↗

Volume server: A scalable high speed and high capacity magnetic tape archive architecture with concurrent multi-host access

A major challenge facing data processing centers today is data management. This includes the storage of large volumes of data and access to it. Current media storage for large data volumes is typically off line and frequently off site in warehouses. Access to data archived in this fashion can be subject to long delays, errors in media selection and retrieval, and even loss of data through misplacement or damage to the media. Similarly, designers responsible for architecting systems capable of continuous high-speed recording of large volumes of digital data are faced with the challenge of identifying technologies and configurations that meet their requirements. Past approaches have tended to evaluate the combination of the fastest tape recorders with the highest capacity tape media and then to compromise technology selection as a consequence of cost. This paper discusses an architecture that addresses both of these challenges and proposes a cost effective solution based on robots, high speed helical scan tape drives, and large-capacity media.

Rybczynski, Fred↗

Total Power Factor Smart Contract with Cyber Grid Guard Using Distributed Ledger Technology for Electrical Utility Grid with Customer-Owned Wind Farm

In modern electrical grids, the numbers of customer-owned distributed energy resources (DERs) have increased, and consequently, so have the numbers of points of common coupling (PCC) between the electrical grid and customer-owned DERs. The disruptive operation of and out-of-tolerance outputs from DERs, especially owned DERs, present a risk to power system operations. A common protective measure is to use relays located at the PCC to isolate poorly behaving or out-of-tolerance DERs from the grid. Ensuring the integrity of the data from these relays at the PCC is vital, and blockchain technology could enhance the security of modern electrical grids by providing an accurate means to translate operational constraints into actions/commands for relays. This study demonstrates an advanced power system application solution using distributed ledger technology (DLT) with smart contracts to manage the relay operation at the PCC. The smart contract defines the allowable total power factor (TPF) of the DER output, and the terms of the smart contract are implemented using DLT with a Cyber Grid Guard (CGG) system for a customer-owned DER (wind farm). This article presents flowcharts for the TPF smart contract implemented by the CGG using DLT. The test scenarios were implemented using a real-time simulator containing a CGG system and relay in-the-loop. The data collected from the CGG system were used to execute the TPF smart contract. The desired TPF limits on the grid-side were between +0.9 and +1.0, and the operation of the breakers in the electrical grid and DER sides was controlled by the relay consistent with the provisions of the smart contract. The events from the real-time simulator, CGG, and relay showed a successful implementation of the TPF smart contract with CGG using DLT, proving the efficacy of this approach in general for implementing electrical grid applications for utilities with connections to customer-owned DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Autonomic Management of Space Missions

With NASA s renewed commitment to outer space exploration, greater emphasis is being placed on both human and robotic exploration. Even when humans are involved in the exploration, human tending of assets becomes cost-prohibitive or in many cases is simply not feasible. In addition, certain exploration missions will require spacecraft that will be capable of venturing where humans cannot be sent. Early space missions were operated manually from ground control centers with little or no automated operations. In the mid-l980s, the high costs of satellite operations prompted NASA, and others, to begin automating as many functions as possible. In our context, a system is autonomous if it can achieve its goals without human intervention. A number of more-or-less automated ground systems exist today, but work continues with the goal being to reduce operations costs to even lower levels. Cost reductions can be achieved in a number of areas. Ground control and spacecraft operations are two such areas where greater autonomy can reduce costs. As a consequence, autonomy is increasingly seen as a critical approach for robotic missions and for some aspects of manned missions. Although autonomy will be critical for the success of future missions (and indeed will enable certain kinds of science data gathering approaches), missions imbued with autonomy must also exhibit autonomic properties. Exploitation of autonomy alone, without emphasis on autonomic properties, will leave spacecraft vulnerable to the dangerous environments in which they must operate. Without autonomic properties, a spacecraft may be unable to recognize negative environmental effects on its components and subsystems, or may be unable to take any action to ameliorate the effects. The spacecraft, though operating autonomously, may then sustain a degradation of performance of components or subsystems, and consequently may have a reduced potential for achieving mission objectives. In extreme cases, lack of autonomic properties could leave the spacecraft unable to recover from faults. Ensuring that exploration spacecraft have autonomic properties will increase the survivability and therefore the likelihood of success of these missions. In fact, over time, as mission requirements increased demands on spacecraft capabilities and longevity, designers have gradually built more autonomicity into spacecraft. For example, a spacecraft in low-earth orbit may experience an out-of-bounds perturbation of its attitude (orientation) due to increased drag caused by increased atmospheric density at its altitude as a result of a sufficiently large solar flare. If the spacecraft was designed to recognize the excessive attitude perturbation, it could decide to protect itself by going into a safe-hold mode where its internal configuration and operation are altered to conserve power and its coarse attitude is adjusted to point its solar panels toward the Sun to maximize power generation. This is an example of a simple type of autonomic behavior that has actually occurred. Future mission concepts will be increasingly dependent on space system survivability enabled by more advanced types of autonomic behaviors

Hinchey, Michael G.↗

Assessment of MSFCs Process for the Development and Activation of Space Act Agreements

A Space Act Agreement (SAA) is a contractual vehicle that NASA utilizes to form partnerships with non-NASA entities to stimulate cutting-edge innovation within the science and technology communities while concurrently supporting the NASA missions. SAAs are similar to traditional contracts in that they involve the commitment of Agency resources but allow more flexibility and are more cost effective to implement than traditional contracts. Consequently, the use of SAAs to develop partnerships has greatly increased over the past several years. To facilitate this influx of SAAs, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) developed a process during a kaizen event to streamline and improve the quality of SAAs developed at the Center level. This study assessed the current SAA process to determine if improvements could be implemented to increase productivity, decrease time to activation, and improve the quality of deliverables. Using a combination of direct procedural observation, personnel interviews, and statistical analysis, elements of the process in need of remediation were identified and potential solutions developed. The findings focus primarily on the difficulties surrounding tracking and enforcing process adherence and communication issues among stakeholders. Potential solutions include utilizing customer relationship management (CRM) software to facilitate process coordination and co-locating or potentially merging the two separate organizations involved in SAA development and activation at MSFC.

Daugherty, Rachel A.↗

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Relationship between Weather, Traffic and Delay Based on Empirical Methods

The steady rise in demand for air transportation over the years has put much emphasis on the need for sophisticated air traffic flow management (TFM) within the National Airspace System (NAS). The NAS refers to hardware, software and people, including runways, radars, networks, FAA, airlines, etc., involved in air traffic management (ATM) in the US. One of the metrics that has been used to assess the performance of NAS is the actual delays provided through FAA's Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET). The OPSNET delay data includes those reportable delays, i.e. delays of 15 minutes or more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights, submitted by the FAA facilities. These OPSNET delays are caused by the application of TFM initiatives in response to, for instance, weather conditions, increased traffic volume, equipment outages, airline operations, and runway conditions. TFM initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, rerouting, airborne holding, and miles-in-trail restrictions, are actions which are needed to control the air traffic demand to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance due to the reduction in capacity. Consequently, TFM initiatives result in NAS delays. Of all the causes, weather has been identified as the most important causal factor for NAS delays. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the NAS performance, it has become necessary to create a baseline for NAS performance and establish a model which characterizes the relation between weather and NAS delays.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

Flying Cassini with Virtual Operations Teams

The Cassini Program's challenge is to fly a large, complex mission with a reduced operations budget. A consequence of the reduced budget is elimination of the large, centrally located group traditionally used for uplink operations. Instead, responsibility for completing parts of the uplink function is distributed throughout the Program. A critical strategy employed to handle this challenge is the use of Virtual Uplink Operations Teams. A Virtual Team is comprised of a group of people with the necessary mix of engineering and science expertise who come together for the purpose of building a specific uplink product. These people are drawn from throughout the Cassini Program and participate across a large geographical area (from Germany to the West coast of the USA), covering ten time zones. The participants will often split their time between participating in the Virtual Team and accomplishing their core responsibilities, requiring significant planning and time management. When the particular uplink product task is complete, the Virtual Team disbands and the members turn back to their home organization element for future work assignments. This time-sharing of employees is used on Cassini to build mission planning products, via the Mission Planning Virtual Team, and sequencing products and monitoring of the sequence execution, via the Sequence Virtual Team. This challenging, multitasking approach allows efficient use of personnel in a resource constrained environment.

Dodd, Suzanne↗

Conformance Testing: Measurement Decision Rules

The goal of a Quality Management System (QMS) as specified in ISO 9001 and AS9100 is to provide assurance to the customer that end products meet specifications. Measuring devices, often called measuring and test equipment (MTE), are used to provide the evidence of product conformity to specified requirements. Unfortunately, processes that employ MTE can become a weak link to the overall QMS if proper attention is not given to the measurement process design, capability, and implementation. Documented "decision rules" establish the requirements to ensure measurement processes provide the measurement data that supports the needs of the QMS. Measurement data are used to make the decisions that impact all areas of technology. Whether measurements support research, design, production, or maintenance, ensuring the data supports the decision is crucial. Measurement data quality can be critical to the resulting consequences of measurement-based decisions. Historically, most industries required simplistic, one-size-fits-all decision rules for measurements. One-size-fits-all rules in some cases are not rigorous enough to provide adequate measurement results, while in other cases are overly conservative and too costly to implement. Ideally, decision rules should be rigorous enough to match the criticality of the parameter being measured, while being flexible enough to be cost effective. The goal of a decision rule is to ensure that measurement processes provide data with a sufficient level of quality to support the decisions being made - no more, no less. This paper discusses the basic concepts of providing measurement-based evidence that end products meet specifications. Although relevant to all measurement-based conformance tests, the target audience is the MTE end-user, which is anyone using MTE other than calibration service providers. Topics include measurement fundamentals, the associated decision risks, verifying conformance to specifications, and basic measurement decisions rules.

Mimbs, Scott M.↗

Quantum simulation of boson-related Hamiltonians: techniques, effective Hamiltonian construction, and error analysis

Elementary quantum mechanics proposes that a closed physical system consistently evolves in a reversible manner. However, control and readout necessitate the coupling of the quantum system to the external environment, subjecting it to relaxation and decoherence. Consequently, system-environment interactions are indispensable for simulating physically significant theories. A broad spectrum of physical systems in condensed-matter and high-energy physics, vibrational spectroscopy, and circuit and cavity QED necessitates the incorporation of bosonic degrees of freedom, such as phonons, photons, and gluons, into optimized fermion algorithms for near-future quantum simulations. In particular, when a quantum system is surrounded by an external environment, its basic physics can usually be simplified to a spin or fermionic system interacting with bosonic modes. Nevertheless, troublesome factors such as the magnitude of the bosonic degrees of freedom typically complicate the direct quantum simulation of these interacting models, necessitating the consideration of a comprehensive plan. This strategy should specifically include a suitable fermion/boson-to-qubit mapping scheme to encode sufficiently large yet manageable bosonic modes, and a method for truncating and/or downfolding the Hamiltonian to the defined subspace for performing an approximate but highly accurate simulation, guided by rigorous error analysis. In this pedagogical tutorial review, we aim to provide such an exhaustive strategy, focusing on encoding and simulating certain bosonic-related model Hamiltonians, inclusive of their static properties and time evolutions. Specifically, we emphasize two aspects: (1) the discussion of recently developed quantum algorithms for these interacting models and the construction of effective Hamiltonians, and (2) a detailed analysis regarding a tightened error bound for truncating the bosonic modes for a class of fermion-boson interacting Hamiltonians.

bosonic Hamiltonian↗

The overlooked interaction of emerging contaminants and microbial communities: a threat to ecosystems and public health

Abstract Context and aims Emerging contaminants (ECs) and microbial communities should not be viewed in isolation, but through the One Health perspective. Both ECs and microorganisms lie at the core of this interconnected framework, as they directly influence the health of humans, animals, and the environment. The interactions between ECs and microbial communities can have profound implications for public health, affecting all three domains. However, these ECs-microorganism interactions remain underexplored, potentially leaving significant public health and ecological risks unrecognized. Therefore, this article seeks to alert the scientific community to the overlooked interactions between ECs and microbial communities, emphasizing the pivotal role these interactions may play in the management of ‘One Health.’ Results The most extensively studied interaction between ECs and microbial communities is biodegradation. However, other more complex and concerning interactions demand attention, such as the impact of ECs on microbial ecology (disruptions in ecosystem balance affecting nutrient and energy cycles) and the rise and spread of antimicrobial resistance (a growing global health crisis). Although these ECs-microbial interactions had not been extensively studied, there are scientific evidence that ECs impact on microbial communities may be concerning for public health and ecosystem balance. Conclusions So, this perspective summarizes the impact of ECs through a One Health lens and underscores the urgent need to understand their influence on microbial communities, while highlighting the key challenges researchers must overcome. Tackling these challenges is vital to mitigate potential long-term consequences for both ecosystems and public health.

Gomes, Inês B. (ORCID:0000000207313662)↗

Modeling Bird Migration in Changing Habitats: Space-based Ornithology using Satellites and GIS

Understanding bird migration and avian biodiversity is one of the most compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties presenting challenges in both geographic space and time. Space based technology, coupled with geographic information systems, yields new opportunities to shed light on the distribution and movement of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. At NASA, we are creating ecological forecasting tools for science and application users to address the consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, drought or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration. In our work, we use individual organism biophysical models and drive these models with satellite observations and numerical weather predictions of the spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat. Geographic information system technology comprises one component of our overall simulation framework, especially for characterizing the changing habitats and conditions encountered by en-route migratory birds. Simulation provides a tool for studying bird migration across multiple scales and can be linked to mechanistic processes describing the time and energy budget states of migrating birds. Such models yield an understanding of how a migratory flyway and its component habitats function as a whole and link stop-over ecology with biological conservation and management. We present examples of our simulation of shorebirds, principally, pectoral sandpipers, along the central flyways of the United States and Canada from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska.

Smith, James A.↗

The Long, Hard Journey: Expanding the Use of NASA Data and Models for Sustainable Development Planning Around the World

In 2007, the National Research Council's committee on Extending Observations and Research Results to Practical Applications recommended that NASA's Applied Science Program (ASP) directly engage with a broader community of users - not just federal agencies. Soon afterwards, scientists at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center began discussions on a collaborative research project with EMBARQ - the World Resource Institute's Center for Sustainable Transport. The discussions initially focused on how best to utilize satellite observations and atmospheric models for assessing the impact of a proposed transportation project on land use and air quality. Discussions exposed the participants to a broad spectrum of science and policy challenges that these diverse organizations face on a routine basis. It brought into clear focus the need for an observation-modeling system that will allow a proactive approach towards development planning, and the fact that satellite systems do not always provide the spatial and temporal resolution useful for urban-scale applications, underscoring the need for earth system models to bridge this gap. Realizing the significant risk that unplanned urbanization and climate change pose to the social and functional stability of large cities, both organizations decided to expand the scope of their preliminary discussion to include water resources and agriculture. A pilot project, funded by NASA ASP, EMBARQ and Istanbul Technical University focused on quantifying the magnitude and extent of urbanization in Istanbul, and analyzed the combined effect of urbanization and projected climate change on local climate, air quality, and its consequent effects on agricultural productivity. Preliminary results show that Istanbul has undergone a significant amount of Land Use/Land Cover change over the past two decades. While some forested areas have been lost to urban-landscapes, urbanization has mostly occurred over former croplands due to the fact that in contrast to forested areas, croplands have flat terrain, making them a more attractive target for conversion to urban land. The reduction in land area for agricultural and increase in temperature has reduced agricultural production in the vicinity of the city. The United Nations expects the world population to reach 9.2 billion by 2050. Most of this increase will be absorbed by countries that are least able to sustain it. Rapid economic growth is likely to continue and will require massive infrastructure investments. If not properly managed, the magnitude and extent of these initiatives will overwhelm sensitive ecosystems around the world. Successful relationships such as the one described here are critically important if we are to stabilize the threatened ecosystems on which human systems ultimately rely. The challenges, needs, culture, and operating environment of development planning organizations are fundamentally different from a research organization. An appreciation of these differences is a prerequisite for any successful collaboration.

Khan, Maudood↗

Overlooked cooling effects of albedo in terrestrial ecosystems

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWI Δα ). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWI Δα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWI Δα is substantial, exceeding the RF Δα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWI Δα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWI Δα component into future ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗