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At least 451 records · Page 25

Advances in LO2 Propellant Conditioning

This paper describes the cryogenic testing and analysis that has recently been completed as part of a multi-year effort to develop a new, more robust and operable LO2 propellant conditioning system. Phase 1 of the program consisted of feasibility demonstrations ot four novel propellant conditioning concepts. A no-bleed, passive propellant conditioning option was shown for the first time to successfully provide desired propellant inlet conditions. The benefits of passive conditioning are reduced operations costs, decreased hardware costs, enhanced operability and increased reliability on future expendable launch vehicles In Phase 2 of the test program, effects of major design parameters were studied and design correlation for future vehicle design were developed. Simultaneously, analytical models were developed and validated. Over 100 tests were conducted with a full-scale feedline using LN2 as the test fluid. A circulation pump provided a range of pressure and flow conditions. The test results showed that the passive propellant conditioning system is insensitive to variations in many of the parameters. The test program provides the validation necessary to incorporate the passive conditioning system into the baseline of future vehicles. Modeling of these systems using computational fluid dynamics seems highly promising.

Mehta, Gopal↗

From Livingstone to SMV: Formal Verification for Autonomous Spacecrafts

To fulfill the needs of its deep space exploration program, NASA is actively supporting research and development in autonomy software. However, the reliable and cost-effective development and validation of autonomy systems poses a tough challenge. Traditional scenario-based testing methods fall short because of the combinatorial explosion of possible situations to be analyzed, and formal verification techniques typically require a tedious, manual modelling by formal method experts. This paper presents the application of formal verification techniques in the development of autonomous controllers based on Livingstone, a model-based health-monitoring system that can detect and diagnose anomalies and suggest possible recovery actions. We present a translator that converts the models used by Livingstone into specifications that can be verified with the SMV model checker. The translation frees the Livingstone developer from the tedious conversion of his design to SMV, and isolates him from the technical details of the SMV program. We describe different aspects of the translation and briefly discuss its application to several NASA domains.

Pecheur, Charles↗

Improving the Accuracy of Satellite Sea Surface Temperature Measurements by Explicitly Accounting for the Bulk-Skin Temperature Difference

The focus of this research was to determine whether the accuracy of satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) could be improved by explicitly accounting for the complex temperature gradients at the surface of the ocean associated with the cool skin and diurnal warm layers. To achieve this goal, work centered on the development and deployment of low-cost infrared radiometers to enable the direct validation of satellite measurements of skin temperature. During this one year grant, design and construction of an improved infrared radiometer was completed and testing was initiated. In addition, development of an improved parametric model for the bulk-skin temperature difference was completed using data from the previous version of the radiometer. This model will comprise a key component of an improved procedure for estimating the bulk SST from satellites. The results comprised a significant portion of the Ph.D. thesis completed by one graduate student and they are currently being converted into a journal publication.

Castro, Sandra L.↗

Combined Numerical/Analytical Perturbation Solutions of the Navier-Stokes Equations for Aerodynamic (Ejector Nozzle) Flows

In spite of the rapid advances in both scalar and parallel computational tools, the large number and breadth of variables involved in aerodynamic systems make the use of parabolized or even boundary layer fluid flow models impractical for both preliminary design and inverse design problems. Given this restriction, we have concluded that reduced or approximate models are an important family of tools for design purposes. This study of a combined perturbation/numerical modeling methodology with an application to ejector-mixer nozzles (shown schematically in the following figure) is nearing completion. The work is being funded by a grant from the NASA Lewis Research Center to Texas A&M University. These ejector-mixer nozzle models are designed to be of use to the High Speed Civil Transport Program and may be adopted by both NASA and industry. A computer code incorporating the ejector-mixer models is under development. This code, the Differential Reduced Ejector/Mixer Analysis (DREA), can be run fast enough to be used as a subroutine or to be called by a design optimization routine. Simplified conservation equations--x-momentum, energy, and mass conservation--are used to define the model. Unlike other preliminary design models, DREA requires minimal empirical input and includes vortical mixing and a fully compressible formulation among other features. DREA is being validated by comparing it with results obtained from open literature and proprietary industry data. Preliminary results for a subsonic ejector and a supersonic ejector are shown. In addition, dedicated experiments have been performed at Texas A&M. These experiments use a hydraulic/gas flow analog to provide information about the inviscid mixing interface structure. Final validation and documentation of this work is expected by May of 1997. However, preliminary versions of DREA can be expected in early 1997. In summary, DREA provides a sufficiently detailed and realistic ejector-mixer nozzle model at a computational cost compatible with preliminary design applications.

DeChant, Lawrence J.↗

Development and Validation of a Simulation Tool to Predict the Combined Structural, Electrical, Electrochemical and Thermal Responses of Automotive Batteries

Battery safety is one of the most important design factors of electrified vehicles (EVs) since battery failure may lead to a catastrophic consequence. To improve the safety of battery systems in EVs, battery behaviors under various abuse conditions should be well understood. One way to examine battery response under extreme conditions is to conduct abuse tests in different scenarios. They can provide first-hand pass/fail information on battery safety, but they are usually expensive and time-consuming, which is inconvenient during design iterations and optimization. On the other hand, computational modeling can predict the battery behaviors in a more efficient and cost-effective way, which becomes an important tool to evaluate battery safety. Modeling battery responses and failure is challenging since it involves multiple coupled physical processes, needs to consider complex material properties and is computationally intensive. This project aims to develop a practical simulation tool to predict the combined structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal responses of automotive batteries to crash-induced crush and short circuit and validate it for conditions relevant to automotive crash. Advanced material constitutive models will be utilized to capture the mechanical response of cell components. Moreover, methods will be developed to reduce computational complexity of the model and allow battery safety simulations to extend from cell-level to module/pack level with affordable computational resources.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

DeMott, Diana↗

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting future well performance for environmental remediation design using deep learning

Here in this study, we developed a deep learning (DL) framework with a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) to predict well performance and thereby assist future environmental remediation design. Such prediction of extraction well performance at designated locations is critical for configuring pump-and-treat (P&T) well network design and operation, setting reasonable target closure dates for overall remedying, and estimating remedy costs. The framework is developed with operational and monitoring data routinely collected during P&T remedy operations, including well extraction and injection rates as well as in situ contaminant concentrations. Traditionally, the collected data were rarely used for purposes other than assessing past well performance and the accuracy of the conceptual site model. However, recent advances in data-driven computational approaches enable better use of the large datasets to inform future well performance, enhance site characterization, and improve remediation planning. In this study, we established a DL framework to integrate transient three-dimensional contaminant plumes and multiple aquifer properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and hydrostratigraphic maps) to identify characteristic patterns controlling and representing extraction well mass recovery, aiming at providing future mass recovery estimates for existing wells and candidate wells at any proposed locations. We evaluated our framework by using a realistic synthetic dataset generated from a well-calibrated flow and transport model used in the 200 West Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The multi-channel feature in our framework allows integration of various types and temporal densities of training datasets for DL model development. Overall, we found that the trained DL model achieved an accuracy of over 90% in ranking extraction well performance in validation datasets, and over 80% in predicting high-performance-ranking well locations. This data-informed approach provides a flexible tool to support adaptive site management, streamline decision-making, and potentially reduce remediation time and costs. Our DL framework can be used as a filtering tool to improve the current P&T network optimization design by reducing the number of candidate well locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control-structures Interaction Test of the LACE Satellite

It is clear that additional experience and validation of Control Structures Interaction (CSI) techniques are needed in controlling the structural dynamics of flexible spacecraft. It is also clear that the effects of the space environment such as weightlessness dictate that this be done in space. Unfortunately, orbital tests are difficult to achieve because of the high cost of the test article, the launch into orbit, the instrumentation, and communication systems. The Low-power Atmospheric Compensation Experiment (LACE) Satellite has provided an opportunity to achieve a CSI test in space for very little cost. First, the CSI test rode piggy-back and did not interfere with the primary objective of LACE. Second, the novel technique of using ground based measurements of vibration of the orbiting satellite was employed. The LACE has a heavy central body to which is attached booms with lengths as long as 150 feet. The ground measurements were obtained using laser Doppler radar at the MIT Lincoln Laboratory Firepond Facility. The initial tests demonstrated the accuracy of the vibration measurements and obtained structural responses for enhancing the accuracy of the mathematical model of the structural dynamics. Germanium corner-cube retroreflectors attached to the central body and a boom deployed to 18 feet ensured a high strength return signal. Subsequent tests demonstrated the ability of an open-loop damper to attenuate the vibrations of the orbiting satellite. The LACE test results are important in contributing to the validation of a CSI technique, and demonstrating a novel ground measurement technique for orbital tests that is accurate but which has very low cost.

Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr.↗

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗

Computationally Accelerated Discovery and Experimental Demonstration of High-Performance Materials for Advanced Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen Production

This project achieved its overarching goal of accelerating the discovery and validation of solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) materials through a tightly integrated approach that combined high-throughput computational screening, advanced machine learning (ML), and experimental testing. Guided by the objectives outlined in the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), our work fulfilled all major milestones across four technical tasks and delivered scientific breakthroughs and practical tools that significantly exceeded the original scope of the project. We began by addressing the challenge of predicting material phase stability through machine learning. A novel Python module was developed to generate thousands of meaningful features from composition, structure, and electronic properties, enabling rapid and reproducible ML model development. Using these tools, we trained a model to predict temperature-dependent Gibbs energies (G(T)) for inorganic crystalline materials with near-chemical accuracy—roughly 40 meV/atom—marking the first such descriptor of its kind. We also introduced a new machine-learned tolerance factor, τ, that accurately predicted perovskite formability with over 90% success, outperforming traditional heuristic models, such as the Goldschmidt tolerance factor. These capabilities allowed for rapid and accurate predictions of phase stability across a vast oxide composition space, setting the stage for high-throughput thermodynamic screening. Building on this foundation, we conducted an extensive computational screening of candidate STCH oxide materials. Over 1.1 million perovskite compositions were evaluated using the τ descriptor, leading to the identification of more than 27,000 predicted stable structures. Using density functional theory (DFT), we refined over 68,000 multinary perovskite structures and computed oxygen vacancy formation energies for over 1,300 ternary and double perovskites. These calculations enabled us to isolate compounds with redox behavior consistent with STCH requirements and resulted in a public dataset now hosted on the Materials Project. Recognizing that thermodynamic screening alone is insufficient, we addressed kinetic limitations by developing a suite of tools to estimate transition state (TS) energies for key redox reactions. We implemented a novel bounding approach that provides lower and upper estimates of TS energies with dramatically reduced computational cost, requiring less than 10% of the CPU time of a full nudged elastic band (NEB) calculation while maintaining high accuracy. This enabled rapid evaluation of over 200 reaction pathways across 90 materials. To further accelerate screening, we developed a SISSO-based ML model to predict diffusion barriers with a 96.7% success rate in classifying fast vs. slow materials, supporting a robust, data-driven framework for assessing redox kinetics. Experimental validation was critical to confirming the predictive power of our models. We synthesized and tested a wide array of candidate materials, including Mn-doped hercynite and several Gd- and La-based perovskites. Notably, Sr 0.4 Gd 0.6 Mn 0.6 Al 0.4 O 3 (SGMA) and Gd 0.5 La 0.5 Co 0.5 Fe 0.5 O 3 (GLCF) emerged as leading STCH materials, exhibiting robust redox cycling and high hydrogen yields exceeding 150 µmol H 2 /g per cycle. These materials also retained over 50% of their hydrogen productivity under high-conversion conditions (H 2 O:H 2 = 1333:1), demonstrating strong thermodynamic favorability and promising performance under industrially relevant scenarios. Additional candidates, such as La 2 MnNiO 6 (L2MN), were found to produce even higher yields than ceria under standard STCH conditions. Our collaborators at Sandia National Laboratories confirmed these findings using high-temperature X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric analysis, observing stable phase evolution and reversible redox activity. In several respects, the project went beyond the goals initially outlined in the SOPO. We published 17 peer-reviewed articles, including a large dataset of over 66,000 theoretical perovskites and a new structure prediction method (SPuDS-DFT) that accurately identifies ground-state structures at a fraction of the cost of traditional DFT. We demonstrated that our machine-learned G(T) model offers accuracy rivaling quasiharmonic calculations while being orders of magnitude faster. In partnership with the Materials Project, we made our datasets openly available, providing a powerful new resource for the broader materials science community. The combined computational and experimental advances of this project represent a significant advance in STCH materials discovery. By creating a robust, generalizable, and open workflow for thermodynamic and kinetic screening, and validating key findings through synthesis and reactor testing, we have provided a practical and scalable pathway for the rapid identification of new redox-active materials. The tools, data, and materials developed under this project are already supporting ongoing research and have laid the groundwork for the next generation of solar fuel technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An Efficient Reactive Force Field without Explicit Coordination Dependence for Studying Caustic Aluminum Chemistry

Reactive force fields (RFFs) are an expedient approach to sample chemical reaction paths in complex systems, relative to density functional theory. However, there is continued need to improve efficiencies, specifically in systems that have slow transverse degrees of freedom, as in highly viscous and superconcentrated solutions. Here, we present an RFF that is differentiated from current models (e.g., ReaxFF) by omitting explicit dependence on the atom coordination and employing a small parameter set based on Lennard-Jones, Gaussian, and Stillinger–Weber potentials. In this study, the model was parametrized from AIMD simulation data and is used to model aluminate reactivity in sodium hydroxide solutions with extensive validation against experimental radial distribution functions, computed free energy profiles for oligomerization, and formation energies. In conclusion, the model enables simulation of early stage Al(OH) 3 nucleation which has significant relevance to industrial processing of aluminum and has a computational cost that is reduced by 1 order of magnitude relative to ReaxFF.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite

Background: Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals. Objectives: The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different endpoints: LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labelling hazard categories, very toxic chemicals (LD50 =50 mg/kg), and non-toxic chemicals (LD50 >2000 mg/kg). Methods: An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches. Results: The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared to in vivo results. Discussion: CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for over 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the NTP’s Integrated Chemical Environment. The models are also implemented in a free, standalone open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A novel large-scale EV charging scheduling algorithm considering V2G and reactive power management based on ADMM

Electric vehicle aggregators (EVAs) that utilize vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies can function as both controllable loads and virtual power plants, providing key energy management services to the distribution system operator (DSO). EVAs can also balance the grid’s reactive power as a virtual static VAR compensator (SVC) and provide voltage stability by utilizing advanced electric vehicle (EV) chargers that are capable of four-quadrant operations to provide reactive power management. Finally, managed charging can benefit EVAs themselves by minimizing power factor penalties in their electricity bills. In this paper, we propose a novel EV charging scheduling algorithm based on a hierarchical distributed optimization framework that minimizes peak load and provides reactive power compensation for the DSO by collaboration with EVAs that manage both the active and the reactive charging and discharging power of participating EVs. Utilizing the alternative direction method of multipliers (ADMM), the proposed distributed optimization approach scales well with increased EV charging infrastructure by balancing active and reactive power while decreasing computational burden. In our proposed hierarchical approach, each EVA schedules the active and reactive EV charging and discharging power for 1) reactive power compensation in order to minimize power factor penalty and electricity cost accrued by the EVA, 2) satisfaction of each EV’s energy demand at minimal charging cost, and 3) peak shaving and load management for the DSO. When compared with an uncoordinated charging model, the efficacy of this proposed model is successfully demonstrated through a 300% decreased peak EV load for the DSO, 28% lower electricity costs for EV users, and 98.55% smaller power factor penalty, along with 17.58% lower overall electricity costs, for EVAs. The performance of our approach is validated in a case study with 50 EVs at multiple EVAs in an IEEE 13-bus test case and compared the results with uncoordinated EV charging.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Salient Characteristics for Terrestrial Analog Engineering Test Sites

The use of terrestrial analog sites is an essential component of the development process for systems that are planned for lunar and planetary surfaces. These sites can also be valuable for training personnel who are expected to operate those systems. The fact that the site is an integral element, capable of influencing data and impacting test results, must not be overlooked. For tests performed in analog environments to be truly valid it is essential that the relevant characteristics of the employed sites be thoroughly understood. It is also critical that a comparative evaluation be made to assess the similarity of the analog sites to target planetary sites. Examples of relevant characteristics include terrain, soil properties, meteorology, geologic features, biological history, and remoteness. The importance of each of the characteristics varies with the type of extraterrestrial activity to be conducted. As a result, a site that is ideal for one purpose may be totally inadequate for another. It may also be appropriate to utilize multiple sites of increasing fidelity as the development process evolves. For example, early in the development process, the use of lower-fidelity sites may be elected - especially if they are available for a lower cost. Later, it may be necessary to employ higher-fidelity sites to capture greater realism, even if there is an associated increased cost. Finally, when interpreting the results of field tests, it is necessary to understand the sensitivity of the results to the relevant conditions. Knowledge of characteristics and sensitivity of results is particularly important when using field test results to validate analytical model predictions. This is especially true for activities that involve physical interaction with the site. Examples would include tests of rovers or other vehicles and associated trafficability modeling, spacesuit mobility tests, and tests associated with system deployment operations.

Watson, J.K.↗

A Model-based Approach to Controlling the ST-5 Constellation Lights-Out Using the GMSEC Message Bus and Simulink

Space Technology 5 (ST-5) is a three-satellite constellation, technology validation mission under the New Millennium Program at NASA to be launched in March 2006. One of the key technologies to be validated is a lights-out, model-based operations approach to be used for one week to control the ST-5 constellation with no manual intervention. The ground architecture features the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) middleware, which allows easy plugging in of software components and a standardized messaging protocol over a software bus. A predictive modeling tool built on MatLab's Simulink software package makes use of the GMSEC standard messaging protocol to interface to the Advanced Mission Planning System (AMPS) Scenario Scheduler which controls all activities, resource allocation and real-time re-profiling of constellation resources when non-nominal events occur. The key features of this system, which we refer to as the ST-5 Simulink system, are as follows: Original daily plan is checked to make sure that predicted resources needed are available by comparing the plan against the model. As the plan is run in real-time, the system re-profiles future activities in real-time if planned activities do not occur in the predicted timeframe or fashion. Alert messages are sent out on the GMSEC bus by the system if future predicted problems are detected. This will allow the Scenario Scheduler to correct the situation before the problem happens. The predictive model is evolved automatically over time via telemetry updates thus reducing the cost of implementing and maintaining the models by an order of magnitude from previous efforts at GSFC such as the model-based system built for MAP in the mid-1990's. This paper will describe the key features, lessons learned and implications for future missions once this system is successfully validated on-orbit in 2006.

Witt, Kenneth J.↗

Predicted Impacts of Pt and Ionomer Distributions on Low-Pt-Loaded PEMFC Performance

Low-cost, high performance proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) have been difficult to develop due to limited understanding of coupled processes in the cathode catalyst layer (CCL). Low-Pt-loaded PEMFCs suffer losses beyond those predicted solely due to reduced catalyst area. Although consensus links these losses to thin ionomer films in the CCL, a precise mechanistic explanation remains elusive. In this publication, we present a physically based PEMFC model with novel structure-property relationships for thin-film Nafion, validated against PEMFC data with low Pt loading. Results suggest that flooding exacerbates kinetic limitations in low-loaded PEMFCs, shifting the Faradaic current distribution. As current density increases, protons travel further into the CCL, resulting in higher Ohmic overpotentials. We also present a parametric study of CCL design parameters. We find that graded Pt and ionomer loadings reduce Ohmic losses and flooding, but individually do not provide significant improvements. However, a dual-graded CCL (i.e., graded Pt and ionomer) is predicted to significantly improve the maximum power density and limiting current compared to uniformly loaded CCLs. This work highlights the importance of accurate transport parameters for thin-film Nafion and provides a pathway to low-cost PEMFCs via precise control of CCL microstructures.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Projection-based multifidelity linear regression for data-scarce applications

Surrogate modeling for systems with high-dimensional quantities of interest remains challenging, particularly when training data are costly to acquire. This work develops multifidelity methods for multiple-input multiple-output linear regression targeting data-limited applications with high-dimensional outputs. Multifidelity methods integrate many inexpensive low-fidelity model evaluations with limited, costly high-fidelity evaluations. We introduce two projection-based multifidelity linear regression approaches with linear and nonlinear features that leverage principal component basis vectors for dimensionality reduction and combine multifidelity data through: (i) a direct data augmentation using low-fidelity data, and (ii) a data augmentation incorporating explicit linear corrections between low-fidelity and high-fidelity data. The data augmentation approaches combine high-fidelity and low-fidelity data into a unified training set and train the linear regression model through weighted least squares with fidelity-specific weights. We introduce a proximity-based weighting scheme with automatic weight selection strategy through cross-validation. Here, the proposed multifidelity linear regression methods are demonstrated on approximating the surface pressure field of a hypersonic vehicle in flight and the temperature field on an aircraft disc braking system. In an ultra low-data regime of no more than twelve high-fidelity samples, multifidelity linear regression achieves approximately 2% – 12% improvement in median accuracy and a higher R 2 score relative to single-fidelity methods at comparable computational cost.

data augmentation↗