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DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven distillation and precision prognosis in traumatic brain injury with interpretable machine learning

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects how the brain functions in the short and long term. Resulting patient outcomes across physical, cognitive, and psychological domains are complex and often difficult to predict. Major challenges to developing personalized treatment for TBI include distilling large quantities of complex data and increasing the precision with which patient outcome prediction (prognoses) can be rendered. We developed and applied interpretable machine learning methods to TBI patient data. We show that complex data describing TBI patients' intake characteristics and outcome phenotypes can be distilled to smaller sets of clinically interpretable latent factors. We demonstrate that 19 clusters of TBI outcomes can be predicted from intake data, a ~ 6× improvement in precision over clinical standards. Finally, we show that 36% of the outcome variance across patients can be predicted. These results demonstrate the importance of interpretable machine learning applied to deeply characterized patients for data-driven distillation and precision prognosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Whole-Genome Clustering to Detect Geospatial, Temporal, and Functional Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Evolution

Current methods for defining SARS-CoV-2 lineages ignore the vast majority of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We develop and apply an exhaustive vector comparison method that directly compares all known SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to produce novel lineage classifications. We utilize data-driven models that (i) accurately capture the complex interactions across the set of all known SARS-CoV-2 genomes, (ii) scale to leadership-class computing systems, and (iii) enable tracking how such strains evolve geospatially over time. We show that during the height of the original Omicron surge, countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas had a spatially asynchronous distribution of Omicron sub-strains. Moreover, neighboring countries were often dominated by either different clusters of the same variant or different variants altogether throughout the pandemic. Analyses of this kind may suggest a different pattern of epidemiological risk than was understood from conventional data, as well as produce actionable insights and transform our ability to prepare for and respond to current and future biological threats.

Jacobson, Daniel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Template Discovery Using Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

Modeling adversarial activities is a critical component of developing high-con?dence indicators of efforts to acquire, fabricate, proliferate, and/or deploy weapons of mass terror (WMTs). Current approaches to generating representative patterns of interest (a.k.a templates) from the real-world domains involve a Subject Matter Expert (SME)-guided manual process. The goal of Data-Driven Template Discovery (DDTD) is to use a (potentially small) set of SME generated templates to discover other previously unknown and interesting templates in an attributed graph. A template is an activity pattern describing a set of interactions among a group of nodes in the graph. The motivation behind DDTD is to expand the original set of templates, without having SMEs craft all the templates by hand. DDTD also provides seed templates to SMEs, to help them construct larger, high-?delity, and scenario-oriented templates. In these cases, obtaining a larger set of templates that are related (contain similar signals) to the original set is of great value. In this work, we propose to use Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNs) to discover new templates that are heavily related to the original set. GCNs are a family of Neural Network (NN) architectures especially designed to work directly on graphs. In contrast to the traditional NNs, that require considerable amounts of labeled data, GCNs do not require a big labeled training set because they can directly leverage the graph structure instead. This property makes GCNs the perfect tool for creating activity templates.

Joaristi, Mikel↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensor selection and tool wear prediction with data‐driven models for precision machining

Abstract Estimation of tool wear in precision machining is vital in the traditional subtractive machining industry to reduce processing cost, improve manufacturing efficiency and product quality. In this vein, fusion of time and frequency‐domain features of commonly sensed signals can provide an early indication of tool wear and improve its prediction accuracy for prognostics and health management. This paper presents a data‐driven methodology and a complete tool chain for the inference of precision machining tool wear from fused machine measurements, such as cutting force, power, audio and vibration signals, and quantify the usefulness of each measurement. Indicators of tool wear are extracted from time‐domain signal statistics, frequency‐domain analysis, and time‐frequency domain analysis. Correlation coefficients between the extracted features (indicators) and the tool wear are used to select the most informative features. Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least‐Squares are used to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space. Regression models, including linear regression, support vector regression, Decision tree regression, neural network regression and Gaussian process regression, are used to predict the tool wear using data from a Haas milling machine performing spiral boss face milling. The performance of the regression models based on subsets of sensors validates the preliminary estimates about the saliency of the sensors. The experimental results show that the proposed methods can predict the machine tool wear precisely, with readily available sensor measurements. Neural network and Gaussian process regression were able to achieve good estimates of tool wear at different machine operating conditions. The most informative signal in predicting tool wear was shown to be the vibration signal. Time‐frequency domain features were the most informative features among the combination of features of three domains. In addition, using partial least squares components extracted from the original features of signals led to higher prediction accuracy.

Han, Seulki↗

DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data driven drift correction for complex optical systems

To exploit the thousand-fold increase in spectral brightness of modern light sources, increasingly intricate experiments are being conducted that demand extremely precise beam trajectory. Maintaining the optimal trajectory over several hours of an experiment with the needed precision necessitates active drift control. Here, we outline time varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO) as a data driven approach for robust drift correction, and illustrate its application for a split and delay optical system composed of six crystals and twelve input dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we exhibit the application of TVBO for linear drift, non-smooth temporal drift as well as constrained TVBO for multi-objective control settings, representing real-life operating conditions. This approach can be easily adapted to other X-ray beam conditioning and guidance systems, including multi-crystal monochromators and grazing-incidence mirrors, to maintain sub-micrometer and nanoradian beam stability over the course of an experiment spanning several hours.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the vulnerability of data-driven structural health monitoring models to adversarial attack

Many approaches at the forefront of structural health monitoring rely on cutting-edge techniques from the field of machine learning. Recently, much interest has been directed towards the study of so-called adversarial examples; deliberate input perturbations that deceive machine learning models while remaining semantically identical. This article demonstrates that data-driven approaches to structural health monitoring are vulnerable to attacks of this kind. In the perfect information or ‘white-box’ scenario, a transformation is found that maps every example in the Los Alamos National Laboratory three-storey structure dataset to an adversarial example. Also presented is an adversarial threat model specific to structural health monitoring. The threat model is proposed with a view to motivate discussion into ways in which structural health monitoring approaches might be made more robust to the threat of adversarial attack.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven Vulnerability Analysis of Networked Pipeline System

This paper introduces an attack generation framework for evaluating the vulnerability of nonlinear networked pipeline systems. The vulnerability analysis is formulated as determining the presence of feasible attack sets, defined by boundary functions representing the effectiveness and stealthiness of attack signals with respect to the objective and attack detection module. The framework utilizes three data-driven models, including two discriminative models that learn the boundary functions and a generative model that produces elements of the feasible attack set. A new loss function ensures successful attack generation with high probability.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2019

A data-driven framework for error estimation and mesh-model optimization in system-level thermal-hydraulic simulation

We report over the past decades, several computer codes have been developed for simulation and analysis of thermal-hydraulics and system response in nuclear reactors under operating, abnormal transient, and accident conditions. However, simulation errors and uncertainties still inevitably exist even while these codes have been extensively assessed and used. In this work, a data-driven framework (Optimal Mesh/Model Information System, OMIS) is formulated and demonstrated to estimate simulation error and suggest optimal selection of computational mesh size (i.e., nodalization) and constitutive correlations (e.g., wall functions and turbulence models) for low-fidelity, coarse-mesh thermal-hydraulic simulation, in order to achieve accuracy comparable to that of high-fidelity simulation. Using results from high-fidelity simulations and experimental data with many fast-running low-fidelity simulations, an error database is built and used to train a machine learning model that can determine the relationship between local simulation error and local physical features. This machine learning model is then used to generate insight and help correct low-fidelity simulations for similar physical conditions. The OMIS framework is designed as a modularized six-step procedure and accomplished with state-of-the-art methods and algorithms. A mixed-convection case study was performed to illustrate the entire framework.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions

Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.

Artificial neural network↗

DOE OSTI2019

Electricity consumption patterns within cities: application of a data-driven settlement characterization method

Urban areas presently consume around 75% of global primary energy supply, which is expected to significantly increase in the future due to urban growth. Having sustainable, universal energy access is a pressing challenge for most parts of the globe. Understanding urban energy consumption patterns may help to address the challenges to urban sustainability and energy security. However, urban energy analyses are severely limited by the lack of urban energy data. Such datasets are virtually non-existent for the developing countries. As per current projections, most of the new urban growth is bound to occur in these data-starved regions. Hence, there is an urgent need of research methods for monitoring and quantifying urban energy utilization patterns. Here, we apply a data-driven approach to characterize urban settlements based on their formality, which is then used to assess intra-urban urban energy consumption in Johannesburg, South Africa; Sana’a, Yemen; and Ndola, Zambia. Electricity is the fastest growing energy fuel. By analyzing the relationship between the settlement types and the corresponding nighttime light emission, a proxy of electricity consumption, we assess the differential electricity consumption patterns. Our study presents a simple and scalable solution to fill the present data void to understand intra-city electricity consumption patterns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

A fusion relevant data-driven engineering void swelling model for 9Cr tempered martensitic steels

The UCSB database on cavity evolution in 9-12Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), includes the results for both dual heavy and helium ion (DII), and High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) in situ helium injection (ISHI) neutron irradiations at 500°C. These results were combined with literature single ion and fission neutron irradiation data to derive a model for the void volume fraction, f v , as a function of displacements per atom (dpa) and transmutant helium concentrations in atomic parts per million (appm). The scientific foundation for the paper is described in a companion paper entitled “Cavity Evolution and Void Swelling in Dual Ion Irradiated Tempered Martensitic Steels”. Here, in this study, we show that f v (dpa, He/dpa) is described by the incubation dose, dpa i , for the onset of void growth, and the post-incubation growth rate, f v ’(%/dpa). Both dpa i and f v ’ decrease with increasing He/dpa at > ~ 5. The dpa i is also lower for the ISHI neutron irradiations at the same He/dpa. Single heavy ion and fission reactor neutron irradiations, with low He/dpa ratios, have a much larger dpa i . Based on a combined analysis of DII, single ion, ISHI and fission neutron data, we further show that the post-incubation f v data analyzed here have a common empirical curve shape, with f v ’ reaching up to ~ 0.2%/dpa at very high dpa. We also show that f v ’ can be predicted based on a physical model of defect partitioning between evolving sinks. At 500°C and fusion relevant He/dpa ≈ 10, the best-fit model predicts nominal swelling, S = f v /(1-f v ), of ~ 1.1, 4.9 and 16% at 50, 100 and 200 dpa, respectively. The physically motivated, data-driven model includes estimated uncertainties for both dpa i and f v ’.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Mechanistic and Data-Driven Agent-Based Models to Explain Human Behavior in Online Networked Group Anagram Games

In anagram games, players are provided with letters for forming as many words as possible over a specified time duration. Anagram games have been used in controlled experiments to study problems such as collective identity, effects of goalsetting, internal-external attributions, test anxiety, and others. The majority of work on anagram games involves individual players. Recently, work has expanded to group anagram games where players cooperate by sharing letters. In this work, we analyze experimental data from online social networked experiments of group anagram games. We develop mechanistic and data-driven models of human reasoning to predict detailed game player actions (e.g., what word to form next). With these results, we develop a composite agent-based modeling and simulation platform that incorporates the models from data analysis. We compare model predictions against experimental data, which enables us to provide explanations of human reasoning and behavior. Finally, we provide illustrative case studies using agent-based simulations to demonstrate the efficacy of models to provide insights that are beyond those from experiments alone.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling and control of an X-ray bimorph adaptive mirror

Adaptive X-ray mirrors are being adopted on high-coherent-flux synchrotron and X-ray free-electron laser beamlines where dynamic phase control and aberration compensation are necessary to preserve wavefront quality from source to sample, yet challenging to achieve. Additional difficulties arise from the inability to continuously probe the wavefront in this context, which demands methods of control that require little to no feedback. In this work, a data-driven approach to the control of adaptive X-ray optics with piezo-bimorph actuators is demonstrated. This approach approximates the non-linear system dynamics with a discrete-time model using random mirror shapes and interferometric measurements as training data. For mirrors of this type, prior states and voltage inputs affect the shape-change trajectory, and therefore must be included in the model. Without the need for assumed physical models of the mirror's behavior, the generality of the neural network structure accommodates drift, creep and hysteresis, and enables a control algorithm that achieves shape control and stability below 2 nm RMS. Using a prototype mirror and ex situ metrology, it is shown that the accuracy of our trained model enables open-loop shape control across a diverse set of states and that the control algorithm achieves shape error magnitudes that fall within diffraction-limited performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven nonlocal model for fragmentation in the crushing of solids

A technique is proposed for reproducing particle size distributions in three-dimensional simulations of the crushing and comminution of solid materials. The method is designed to produce realistic distributions over a wide range of loading conditions, especially for small fragments. In contrast to most existing methods, the new model does not explicitly treat the small-scale process of fracture. Instead, it uses measured fragment distributions from laboratory tests as the basic material property that is incorporated into the algorithm, providing a data-driven approach. The algorithm is implemented within a nonlocal peridynamic solver, which simulates the underlying continuum mechanics and contact interactions between fragments after they are formed. Finally, the technique is illustrated in reproducing fragmentation data from drop weight testing on sandstone samples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data-driven Identification of Occupant Thermostat-Behavior Dynamics

Building occupant behavior drives significant differences in building energy use, even in automated buildings. Users’ distrust in the automation causes them to override settings. This results in responses that fail to satisfy both the occupants’ and/or the building automation’s objectives. The transition toward grid-interactive efficient buildings will make this evermore important as complex building control systems optimize not only for comfort, but also changing electricity costs. This paper presents a data-driven approach to study thermal comfort behavior dynamics which are not captured by standard steady-state comfort models such as predicted mean vote. The proposed model captures the time it takes for a user to override a thermostat setpoint change as a function of the manual setpoint change magnitude. The model was trained with the ecobee Donate Your Data dataset of 5 min. resolution data from 27,764 smart thermostats and occupancy sensors. The resulting population-level model shows that, on average, a 2°F override will occur after ~30 mins. and an 8°F override will occur in only ~15 mins., indicating the magnitude of discomfort as a key driver to the swiftness of an override. Such models could improve demand response programs through personalized controls.

Kane, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Parametric, Data-Driven, Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order Model Framework for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Voids

The influence of the internal structure at micrometer length scales on the deformation of polycrystalline materials can be effectively captured using crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEM). However, the complexity and nonlinearity of the deformation equations CPFEM solves demand significant computational power and resources to achieve accurate predictions, limiting its broader application. To address this challenge, we have identified a reduced-order representation of the complex data in order to establish a computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) and drastically reduce the computational expense of CPFEM. Specifically, in this work, we developed a parametric, data-driven, and non-intrusive ROM framework for CPFEM using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) regression for single-crystal microstructures under tensile loading conditions. The developed protocol enables one to compress field into a latent/low-dimensional space described by principal component analysis (PCA) via the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm. As a result, the high-dimensional data are reduced to a significantly smaller amount of dimensions with POD bases and POD coefficients. Furthermore, we deployed an ensemble of SVGPs—extended from the classical Gaussian process (GP) regression for scalability and handling big data—in a massively parallel manner to train and predict latent POD coefficients using known POD bases from a set of previously obtained simulations results. Lastly, using the predicted POD coefficients, we reconstructed the full-field results and showed reasonable agreement compared with the true values obtained from running CPFEM. The developed framework is validated with a set of CPFEM simulations of a single embedded void in single-crystal aluminum alloy. While the framework is broadly applicable, this work specifically focuses on single-crystal microstructures, a single load case (e.g., tensile), and a specific void geometry (spherical).

Anisotropy↗