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DOE OSTI2023

A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2010

PySP : modeling and solving stochastic mixed-integer programs in Python.

Although stochastic programming is a powerful tool for modeling decision-making under uncertainty, various impediments have historically prevented its widespread use. One key factor involves the ability of non-specialists to easily express stochastic programming problems as extensions of deterministic models, which are often formulated first. A second key factor relates to the difficulty of solving stochastic programming models, particularly the general mixed-integer, multi-stage case. Intricate, configurable, and parallel decomposition strategies are frequently required to achieve tractable run-times. We simultaneously address both of these factors in our PySP software package, which is part of the COIN-OR Coopr open-source Python project for optimization. To formulate a stochastic program in PySP, the user specifies both the deterministic base model and the scenario tree with associated uncertain parameters in the Pyomo open-source algebraic modeling language. Given these two models, PySP provides two paths for solution of the corresponding stochastic program. The first alternative involves writing the extensive form and invoking a standard deterministic (mixed-integer) solver. For more complex stochastic programs, we provide an implementation of Rockafellar and Wets Progressive Hedging algorithm. Our particular focus is on the use of Progressive Hedging as an effective heuristic for approximating general multi-stage, mixed-integer stochastic programs. By leveraging the combination of a high-level programming language (Python) and the embedding of the base deterministic model in that language (Pyomo), we are able to provide completely generic and highly configurable solver implementations. PySP has been used by a number of research groups, including our own, to rapidly prototype and solve difficult stochastic programming problems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Automatic Mesh Adaptivity for Hybrid Monte Carlo/Deterministic Neutronics Modeling of Fusion Energy Systems

Three mesh adaptivity algorithms were developed to facilitate and expedite the use of the CADIS and FW-CADIS hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic techniques in accurate full-scale neutronics simulations of fusion energy systems with immense sizes and complicated geometries. First, a macromaterial approach enhances the fidelity of the deterministic models without changing the mesh. Second, a deterministic mesh refinement algorithm generates meshes that capture as much geometric detail as possible without exceeding a specified maximum number of mesh elements. Finally, a weight window coarsening algorithm decouples the weight window mesh and energy bins from the mesh and energy group structure of the deterministic calculations in order to remove the memory constraint of the weight window map from the deterministic mesh resolution. The three algorithms were used to enhance an FW-CADIS calculation of the prompt dose rate throughout the ITER experimental facility and resulted in a 23.3% increase in the number of mesh tally elements in which the dose rates were calculated in a 10-day Monte Carlo calculation. Additionally, because of the significant increase in the efficiency of FW-CADIS simulations, the three algorithms enabled this difficult calculation to be accurately solved on a regular computer cluster, eliminating the need for a world-class super computer.

Hybrid Monte Carlo/deterministic↗

DOE OSTI2015

Fencing network direct memory access data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface of a parallel computer

Fencing direct memory access (`DMA`) data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface (`PAMI`) of a parallel computer, the PAMI including data communications endpoints, each endpoint including specifications of a client, a context, and a task, the endpoints coupled for data communications through the PAMI and through DMA controllers operatively coupled to a deterministic data communications network through which the DMA controllers deliver data communications deterministically, including initiating execution through the PAMI of an ordered sequence of active DMA instructions for DMA data transfers between two endpoints, effecting deterministic DMA data transfers through a DMA controller and the deterministic data communications network; and executing through the PAMI, with no FENCE accounting for DMA data transfers, an active FENCE instruction, the FENCE instruction completing execution only after completion of all DMA instructions initiated prior to execution of the FENCE instruction for DMA data transfers between the two endpoints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Fencing network direct memory access data transfers in a parallel active messaging interface of a parallel computer

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2013

Implementation of hybrid variance reduction methods in a multi group Monte Carlo code for deep shielding problems

In this paper, the work that has been done to implement variance reduction techniques in a three dimensional, multi group Monte Carlo code - Tortilla, that works within the frame work of the commercial deterministic code - Attila, is presented. This project is aimed to develop an integrated Hybrid code that seamlessly takes advantage of the deterministic and Monte Carlo methods for deep shielding radiation detection problems. Tortilla takes advantage of Attila's features for generating the geometric mesh, cross section library and source definitions. Tortilla can also read importance functions (like adjoint scalar flux) generated from deterministic calculations performed in Attila and use them to employ variance reduction schemes in the Monte Carlo simulation. The variance reduction techniques that are implemented in Tortilla are based on the CADIS (Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling) method and the LIFT (Local Importance Function Transform) method. These methods make use of the results from an adjoint deterministic calculation to bias the particle transport using techniques like source biasing, survival biasing, transport biasing and weight windows. The results obtained so far and the challenges faced in implementing the variance reduction techniques are reported here. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Interactive Visualization of Multi-Group Cross Sections on High-Fidelity Spatial Meshes

Core simulation tools utilizing Monte Carlo transport methods represent the 'Holy Grail' for nuclear reactor analysis. However, deterministic transport methods pose a number of advantages to Monte Carlo from a computational perspective, which seems likely to make these methods more viable in the near to intermediate term. Deterministic methods almost universally discretize the energy domain in a few to hundreds of energy groups. One of the key challenges for deterministic transport-based methods to be viable is accurate, reactor agnostic multi-group cross section generation. This paper describes tools for data processing and visualization of multigroup cross sections generated on high-fidelity spatial meshes from the OpenMC Monte Carlo code. Next generation deterministic transport reactor core modeling tools will require multi-group cross section (MGXS) generation on high-fidelity spatial meshes. High-fidelity MGXS are necessary for the accurate simulation of neutron physics in nuclear reactors with a high degree of spectral heterogeneity - e.g., large localized neutron flux gradients throughout a reactor core. Although many local (e.g., pin cell) approximations have been developed to model the scalar flux to compute spectral-averaged MGXS, these techniques cannot account for complex intra-pin and intra-assembly spatial self-shielding effects. Monte Carlo presents the most accurate method for reactor agnostic multi-group cross section generation since it does not require the use of local approximations to the flux. Monte Carlo has been proposed as a highly desirable framework for reactor agnostic cross section generation for many years. Monte Carlo methods can effectively embed all of the relevant spectral effects into the MGXS through the random particle tracking and interaction sampling processes. Previous work has applied MCNP and Serpent to compute few-group constants for diffusion calculations, and OpenMC to compute multi-group cross sections for transport-based methods. The primary difficulty with using Monte Carlo for MGXS generation is the tremendous computational resources required to adequately converge multi-group cross sections in each spatial region and energy group. Recent development of the OpenMC Monte Carlo code for high-performance computing platforms has made multigroup cross section generation from Monte Carlo more tractable in the foreseeable future. The recent release of OpenMC v0.7.1 includes a new Python-based module for MGXS generation. The MGXS generation module leverages many of the algorithms and features for 'big data' analysis of large tally datasets on complex spatial meshes. This paper describes the data management workflow and visualization tools which have been developed to explore the plethora of MGXS data generated with OpenMC. It is the authors' hope that the development of the visualization tool described in this paper will ultimately enable the design of machine learning algorithms to accelerate the convergence rate of high-fidelity multi-group cross section generated with Monte Carlo. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

First-collision source treatment for ray effect mitigation in discrete-ordinate radiation transport solutions

Deterministic transport codes play a fundamental role in the modelling and simulation of neutron transport. One of the most common deterministic methods is the method of discrete ordinates, also known as the S method. While offering significant advantages over other deterministic methods or stochastic methods like Monte Carlo, the method of discrete ordinates suffers from non-physical artifacts in its local solution due to its discretization of angle. These artifacts, referred to as ray effects because of their ray-like appearance, tend to be worse in problems with small sources in areas with little scattering. Significant effort has gone into developing methods to mitigate ray effects, such as the first-collision source treatment, which separates the angular flux into the uncollided and collided fluxes and solving them using non-traditional techniques such as ray tracing. One such code capable of doing this is Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's deterministic transport code ARDRA. Current ray tracing methods typically trace to a set of points inside a zone to compute an overall flux. However, this approach has significant drawbacks, such as a low order of convergence and not being conservative. Therefore, a new method has been developed that traces instead to a set of points on each of a zone's surfaces and computing the currents, before using these to obtain the flux. A comparison between these two ray tracing methods showed significant advantages to the new surface method, including inherent conservation, a higher convergence rate, and an increase in calculable information like leakage. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Liver- more National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Griffin model of the advanced test reactor

In the pursuit of a higher fidelity deterministic simulation capability of the Advanced Test Reactor, it is important to have a fast yet accurate deterministic neutronics model. Here, to achieve this, we employed an advanced two-step method. The first step involves generating homogenized cross sections using OpenMC, a cutting-edge Monte Carlo neutron transport code. OpenMC offers excellent modular capabilities, allowing for easy component integration and flexibility in incorporating new designs into the model. The second step involves deterministic transport calculations, which are performed using Griffin, a reactor physics application based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). To ensure the accurate spatial resolution and assignment of material cross sections, a Cubit-generated mesh for the Advanced Test Reactor is utilized as an intermediate step between the OpenMC and Griffin models; Griffin utilizes the mesh for its finite element solution, while OpenMC material identifications are written to the mesh file to be used in Griffin material assignments. Additionally, a Python-based script converts the cross sections generated by OpenMC into the ISOXML format required by Griffin. Initial comparisons using the Griffin diffusion solver indicated good agreement between the neutron multiplication factors obtained from the standalone OpenMC model and the Griffin model, with differences of less than 10 pcm in the 2D geometry configuration; it was later determined that this agreement was likely due to compensating effect and was more likely on the order of –700 pcm relative to the OpenMC solution. However, in three-dimensional calculations, an unacceptably large error (almost 8,000 pcm) was found in the Griffin solution with the diffusion solver. Subsequent calculations using Griffin’s discrete ordinates solver demonstrated substantially improved agreement, within 116 pcm of the OpenMC solution used to generate the cross sections for Griffin. Building on this capability, future work will seek to perform more detailed validation calculations. The ultimate goal is to evaluate both transient and multiphysics simulations of the reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reinforcement learning based automated history matching for improved hydrocarbon production forecast

History matching aims to find a numerical reservoir model that can be used to predict the reservoir performance. An engineer and model calibration (data inversion) method are required to adjust various parameters/properties of the numerical model in order to match the reservoir production history. In this study, we develop deep neural networks within the reinforcement learning framework to achieve automated history matching that will reduce engineers’ efforts, human bias, automatically and intelligently explore the parameter space, and remove the need of large set of labeled training data. To that end, a fast-marching-based reservoir simulator is encapsulated as an environment for the proposed reinforcement learning. The deep neural-network-based learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator within reinforcement learning framework to achieve the automated history matching. Reinforcement learning techniques, such as discrete Deep Q Network and continuous Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients, are used toth, used to train the learning agents. The continuous actions enable the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients to explore more states at each iteration in a a learning episode; consequently, a better history matching is achieved using this algorithm as compared to Deep Q Network. For simplified dual-target composite reservoir models, the best history-matching performances of the discrete and continuous learning methods in terms of normalized root mean square errors are 0.0447 and 0.0038, respectively. Furthermore, our study shows that continuous action space achieved by the deep deterministic policy gradient drastically outperforms deep Q network.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic-learning-based stochastic surrogate model from small incomplete datasets for nonlinear dynamical systems

We consider a high-dimensional nonlinear computational model of a dynamical system, parameterized by a vector-valued control parameter, in the presence of uncertainties represented by an uncontrolled parameter modeled by a vector-valued random variable, and possibly with stochastic excitation. The objective is to construct a statistical surrogate model where the input is any deterministic value of the control parameter, and the output is a vector-valued observation of the computational model, which is a random vector whose probability measure is updated using a target dataset. To construct this statistical surrogate model, the stochastic response of the computational model must be built, which is a vector-valued time-discretized stochastic process in high dimension, depending on the control parameter. It is assumed that the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is high. For the probabilistic updating, we consider a subset of the components of the observation of the computational model, defined as the “identification observation” of the computational model, for which a small target dataset is available. Therefore, the target dataset is associated with partial observability, corresponding to an incomplete data case. Given a prior probability model of the random control and uncontrolled parameters, a training dataset is constructed, consisting of realizations of the random triplet composed of the stochastic response, the random identification observation, and the random control parameter. Since the computational cost of a single evaluation of the deterministic model is assumed to be large, the training dataset is also of small size. The main challenges in this problem are the high dimensionality, partial observability leading to incomplete data in the target dataset for the identification observation of the computational model (which is not sufficient to identify the computational stochastic responses), and the availability of a small training dataset. To address these challenges, we propose a methodology based on statistical methods for constructing necessary reduced representations, direct probabilistic learning under constraints using probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) constrained by the target dataset, and the use of a weak formulation of the Fourier transform of probability measures. Statistical conditioning is also employed to explore the learned dataset. The constructed predictive statistical surrogate model can be implemented in the context of online computation. Here, we apply this approach to a problem of nonlinear stochastic dynamics in high dimensions within the framework of deformable solids mechanics.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mixed-integer programming models for optimal constellation scheduling given cloud cover uncertainty

We introduce the problem of scheduling observations on a constellation of remote sensors, to maximize the aggregate quality of the collections obtained. While automated tools exist to schedule remote sensors, they are often based on heuristic scheduling techniques, which typically fail to provide bounds on the quality of the resultant schedules. To address this issue, we first introduce a novel deterministic mixed-integer programming (MIP) model for scheduling a constellation of one to n satellites, which relies on extensive pre-computations associated with orbital propagators and sensor collection simulators to mitigate model size and complexity. Our MIP model captures realistic and complex constellation-target geometries, with solutions providing optimality guarantees. We then extend our base deterministic MIP model to obtain two-stage and three-stage stochastic MIP models that proactively schedule to maximize expected collection quality across a set of scenarios representing cloud cover uncertainty. Our experimental conclusions on instances of one and two satellites demonstrate that our stochastic MIP models yield significantly improved collection quality relative to our base deterministic MIP model. We further demonstrate that commercial off-the-shelf MIP solvers can produce provably optimal or near-optimal schedules from these models in time frames suitable for sensor operations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2014

Selection of polynomial chaos bases via Bayesian model uncertainty methods with applications to sparse approximation of PDEs with stochastic inputs

Generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions allow us to represent the solution of a stochastic system using a series of polynomial chaos basis functions. The number of gPC terms increases dramatically as the dimension of the random input variables increases. When the number of the gPC terms is larger than that of the available samples, a scenario that often occurs when the corresponding deterministic solver is computationally expensive, evaluation of the gPC expansion can be inaccurate due to over-fitting. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that allows for global recovery of the stochastic solutions, in both spatial and random domains, by coupling Bayesian model uncertainty and regularization regression methods. It allows the evaluation of the PC coefficients on a grid of spatial points, via (1) the Bayesian model average (BMA) or (2) the median probability model, and their construction as spatial functions on the spatial domain via spline interpolation. The former accounts for the model uncertainty and provides Bayes-optimal predictions; while the latter provides a sparse representation of the stochastic solutions by evaluating the expansion on a subset of dominating gPC bases. Moreover, the proposed methods quantify the importance of the gPC bases in the probabilistic sense through inclusion probabilities. We design a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler that evaluates all the unknown quantities without the need of ad-hoc techniques. The proposed methods are suitable for, but not restricted to, problems whose stochastic solutions are sparse in the stochastic space with respect to the gPC bases while the deterministic solver involved is expensive. We demonstrate the accuracy and performance of the proposed methods and make comparisons with other approaches on solving elliptic SPDEs with 1-, 14- and 40-random dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Coupling sample paths to the thermodynamic limit in Monte Carlo estimators with applications to gene expression

Many biochemical systems appearing in applications have a multiscale structure so that they converge to piecewise deterministic Markov processes in a thermodynamic limit. The statistics of the piecewise deterministic process can be obtained much more efficiently than those of the exact process. We explore the possibility of coupling sample paths of the exact model to the piecewise deterministic process in order to reduce the variance of their difference. We then apply this coupling to reduce the computational complexity of a Monte Carlo estimator. Motivated by the rigorous results in , we show how this method can be applied to realistic biological models with nontrivial scalings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Harnessing structural stochasticity in the computational discovery and design of microstructures

This paper presents a deep generative model-based design methodology for tailoring the structural stochasticity of microstructures. Although numerous methods have been established for designing deterministic (periodic) or stochastic microstructures, a systematic design approach that allows the unified treatment of both deterministic and stochastic microstructure design domains has yet to be created. The proposed methodology resolves this issue by learning a unified feature space that embodies diverse structural patterns with continuously varying stochasticity levels. A highly diverse microstructure database is established to incorporate various types of deterministic and stochastic microstructure patterns. A property-aware deep generative model is proposed to learn a unified feature space of the structural characteristics, as well as the relationship between structure features and properties of interest. Autoencoder (AE), Variational Autoencoder (VAE), and Adversarial Autoencoder (AAE) are compared to understand their relative merits in the property-aware learning of the unified feature space. Microstructural designs with tailorable stochasticity and properties are obtained by searching the unified feature space. Multiple design cases are presented to demonstrate the capability of designing microstructures for structural stochasticity and properties. Furthermore, the proposed method is employed to create stochastically graded structures, which manipulate the mechanical behaviors by varying the local stochasticity of the structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

A stochastic flow-capturing model to optimize the location of fast-charging stations with uncertain electric vehicle flows

Here, we develop a model to optimize the location of public fast charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs). A difficulty in planning the placement of charging stations is uncertainty in where EV charging demands appear. For this reason, we use a stochastic flow-capturing location model (SFCLM). A sample-average approximation method and an averaged two-replication procedure are used to solve the problem and estimate the solution quality. We demonstrate the use of the SFCLM using a Central-Ohio based case study. We find that most of the stations built are concentrated around the urban core of the region. As the number of stations built increases, some appear on the outskirts of the region to provide an extended charging network. We find that the sets of optimal charging station locations as a function of the number of stations built are approximately nested. We demonstrate the benefits of the charging-station network in terms of how many EVs are able to complete their daily trips by charging midday—six public charging stations allow at least 60% of EVs that would otherwise not be able to complete their daily tours without the stations to do so. We finally compare the SFCLM to a deterministic model, in which EV flows are set equal to their expected values. We show that if a limited number of charging stations are to be built, the SFCLM outperforms the deterministic model. As the number of stations to be built increases, the SFCLM and deterministic model select very similar station locations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗