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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laminar to Turbulence Transition in Boundary Layers due to Tripping Devices

Direct numerical simulations (DNS)and linear stability analysis were performed to identify the mechanisms by which two-and three-dimensional trips promote early transition in subsonic boundary layers over a flat plate. Investigations were conducted for two boundary layer transition trip configurations: one is a two-dimensional rectangular-shaped rod and the other is a three-dimensional zigzag tape. Reynolds numbers based on the trip heights are 683 and 300 for the two-and three-dimensional trips, respectively. Simulations with the two-dimensional trip showed that the flow separates at the top of the trip and forms a long recirculation zone downstream. However, the flow remains steady in the simulation without any external disturbances. Linear stability analysis showed that the inflectional profile in the recirculation zone is strongly unstable to frequencies in the range of 100-300 Hz. Simulations with the external disturbances forced at the frequency of 200 Hz showed that disturbances grow strongly inside the recirculation zone as observed in the Klebanoff1 experiment.

Transition↗
NASA NTRS2022

Statistical study of favorable foreshock ion properties for the formation of hot flow anomalies and foreshock bubbles

Hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and foreshock bubbles (FBs) are frequently observed in Earth's foreshock, which can significantly disturb the bow shock and therefore the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and can accelerate particles. Previous statistical studies have identified the solar wind conditions (high solar wind speed and high Mach number, etc.) that favor their generation. However, backstreaming foreshock ions are expected to most directly control how HFAs and FBs form, whereas the solar wind may partake in the formation process indirectly by determining foreshock ion properties. Using Magnetospheric Multiscale mission and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms mission, we perform a statistical study of foreshock ion properties around 275 HFAs and FBs. We show that foreshock ions with a high foreshock-to-solar wind density ratio (>∼3%), high kinetic energy (>∼600 eV), large ratio of kinetic energy to thermal energy (>∼0.1), and large ratio of perpendicular temperature to parallel temperature (>∼1.4) favor HFA and FB formation. We also examine how these properties are related to solar wind conditions: high solar wind speed and oblique bow shock (angle between the interplanetary magnetic field and the bow shock normal 𝜃Bn∼45°) favor high kinetic energy of foreshock ions; foreshock ions have large ratio of kinetic energy to thermal energy at large 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴Bn (>30°); small 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴Bn (<30°), high Mach number, and closeness to the bow shock favor a high foreshock-to-solar wind density ratio. Our results provide further understanding of HFA and FB formation.

Terry Z. Liu↗
NASA NTRS1977

Composition of the hot plasma near geosynchronous altitude

Although there were no direct measurements of the composition of the hot (keV) plasma at geosynchronous altitudes, the combination of other observations leads to the conclusion that, at least during geomagnetically disturbed periods, there are significant fluxes of ions heavier than protons in this region. Ion composition measurements below 8000 km altitude show upward streaming fluxes of both O(+) and H(+) ions in the L-region of the geosynchronous orbit. These observations are consistent with the conclusion that at least a portion of the total ion fluxes observed at geosynchronous altitude to be highly peaked near the magnetic field lines are heavier than protons and originate in the ionosphere.

Johnson, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Low Frequency Oscillations in Assimilated Global Datasets Using TRMM Rainfall Observations

Global datasets for the period May-August 1998 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) with/without assimilated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation are analyzed against European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) output, NOAA observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, and TRMM measured rainfall. The purpose of this study is to investigate the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in GEOS assimilated global datasets, noting the impact of TRMM observed rainfall on the MJO in GEOS data assimilations. A space-time analysis of the OLR data indicates that the observed OLR exhibits a spectral maximum for eastward-propagating wavenumber 1-3 disturbances with periods of 20-60 days in the 0deg-30degN latitude band. The assimilated OLR has a similar feature but with a smaller magnitude. However, OLR spectra from assimilations including TRMM rainfall data show better agreement with observed OLR spectra than spectra from assimilations without TRMM rainfall. Similar results are found for wavenumber 4-6 disturbances. There is a spectral peak for eastward-propagating wavenumber 4-6 disturbances with periods of 20-40 days near the equator, while for westward-moving disturbances, a spectral peak is noted for periods of 30-50 days near 25degN. To isolate the MJO, a 30-50 day band filter is selected for this study. It was found that the eastward-propagating waves from the band-filtered observed OLR between 10degs- 10degN are located in the eastern hemisphere. Similar patterns are evident in surface rainfall and the 850 hPa wind field. Assimilation of TRMM-observed rainfall reveals more distinct MJO features in the analysis than without rainfall assimilation. Similar analyses are also conducted over the Indian summer monsoon and East Asia summer monsoon regions, where the MJO is strongly related to the summer monsoon active-break patterns.

Tao, Li↗
NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Automated Approach to Map the History of Forest Disturbance from Insect Mortality and Harvest with Landsat Time-Series Data

Forests contain a majority of the aboveground carbon (C) found in ecosystems, and understanding biomass lost from disturbance is essential to improve our C-cycle knowledge. Our study region in the Wisconsin and Minnesota Laurentian Forest had a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2007, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To understand the potential role of disturbances in the terrestrial C-cycle, we developed an algorithm to map forest disturbances from either harvest or insect outbreak for Landsat time-series stacks. We merged two image analysis approaches into one algorithm to monitor forest change that included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds to capture clear-cut harvest; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence interval thresholds to map insect outbreak. We produced 20 maps and evaluated classification accuracy with air-photos and insect air-survey data to understand the performance of our algorithm. We achieved overall accuracies ranging from 65% to 75%, with an average accuracy of 72%. The producer's and user's accuracy ranged from a maximum of 32% to 70% for insect disturbance, 60% to 76% for insect mortality and 82% to 88% for harvested forest, which was the dominant disturbance agent. Forest disturbances accounted for 22% of total forested area (7349 km2). Our algorithm provides a basic approach to map disturbance history where large impacts to forest stands have occurred and highlights the limited spectral sensitivity of Landsat time-series to outbreaks of defoliating insects. We found that only harvest and insect mortality events can be mapped with adequate accuracy with a non-annual Landsat time-series. This limited our land cover understanding of NDVI decline drivers. We demonstrate that to capture more subtle disturbances with spectral trajectories, future observations must be temporally dense to distinguish between type and frequency in heterogeneous landscapes.

Forest↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modeling and Simulation of Upset-Inducing Disturbances for Digital Systems in an Electromagnetic Reverberation Chamber

This report describes a modeling and simulation approach for disturbance patterns representative of the environment experienced by a digital system in an electromagnetic reverberation chamber. The disturbance is modeled by a multi-variate statistical distribution based on empirical observations. Extended versions of the Rejection Samping and Inverse Transform Sampling techniques are developed to generate multi-variate random samples of the disturbance. The results show that Inverse Transform Sampling returns samples with higher fidelity relative to the empirical distribution. This work is part of an ongoing effort to develop a resilience assessment methodology for complex safety-critical distributed systems.

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo↗
NASA NTRS1993

A multiple-mode three-dimensional model of VLF propagation in the earth-ionosphere waveguide in the presence of localized D region disturbances

Transient localized D region disturbances, such as those associated with lightning discharges, affect the characteristics of VLF waves propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. In particular, both phase and amplitude changes in the subionospheric signal can be observed at receiving sites as a result of the wave scattering that takes place in the disturbed region. In the present paper we present a multiple-mode three-dimensional model of VLF propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide in the presence of localized D region disturbances. The model takes into account great circle (GC) propagation paths with realistic ground and ionospheric conductivity changes that result in mode conversion along the path. It is assumed that conductivity changes transverse to the GC paths are negligible except in the vicinity of the D region disturbance and that mode coupling is negligible within the disturbed region. This new model is applied to experimental observations and is found to be in general agreement. The diagnostics potential of the model for characterizing energetic particle precipitation events is discussed.

Poulsen, William L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Remote Sensing of Precipitating Electron Energies: A Comparison of Substorms and Pressure Pulse Related Intensifications

The Polar Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) observes aurora responses to incident solar wind pressure pulses and interplanetary shocks such its those associated with coronal mass ejections. Previous observations have demonstrated that the arrival of it pressure pulse at the front of the magnetosphere results in highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions and a substantial increase in both dayside and nightside aurora precipitations. Our observations show it simultaneous brightening over bread areas of the dayside and nightside auroral in response to a pressure pulse, indicating that more magnetospheric regions participate as sources for auroral precipitation than during isolate substorm. We estimate the characteristic energies of incident auroral electrons using Polar UVI images and compare the precipitation energies during pressure pulse associated event to those during isolated substorms. We estimate the characteristic energies of incident auroral electrons using Polar UVI images and compare the precipitation energies during pressure pulse associated events to those during isolated auroral substorms. Electron precipitation during substorms has characteristic energies greater than 10 KeV and is structured both in local time and in magnetic latitude. For auroral intensifications following the arrival of'a pressure pulse or interplanetary shock. Electron precipitation is less spatially structured and has greater flux of lower characteristic energy electrons (Echar less than 7 KeV) than during isolated substorm onsets. These observations quantify the differences between global and local auroral precipitation processes and will provide a valuable experimental check for models of sudden storm commencements and magnetospheric response to perturbations in the solar wind.

Chua, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging gaps in permafrost-shrub understanding

Permafrost, permanently frozen ground which underlies much of the Arctic and sub-Arctic, is influenced by deciduous shrubs, yet our understanding of permafrost-shrub interactions is limited. This is largely due to a lack of widespread, long-term, high-quality observations across Arctic and sub-Arctic systems, which are difficult to study due to their remote locations. Shrubs are rapidly expanding in many areas of Arctic tundra and can either amplify or inhibit permafrost thaw, making it crucial that we can understand and predict permafrost-shrub interactions. As we have limited time and resources to make observations, we must design our field campaigns to be as impactful as possible. Below we outline the current state of knowledge and give suggestions about how we can maximize our fieldwork’s impact. From field studies conducted around the Arctic, we know that shrubs generally have a cooling effect on permafrost in the summer, largely caused by the shrub canopy shading the soil. However, summertime cooling can be counteracted by a warming effect in winter, caused by the trapping of blowing snow by shrubs, which leads to increased snow depths. In addition to these commonly observed effects, both observations and models show that other local factors such as climate, soil, snow, and disturbances can interact to cause contrasting dominant effects on permafrost temperatures. For example, shrubs that protrude through the snowpack have been observed to cool permafrost in winter via thermal bridging between the air above the snow and the soil below. However, at other research sites, protruding shrubs lower the surface albedo and cause earlier snowmelt in spring, amplifying permafrost thaw by exposing the soil to thawing earlier. Protruding shrubs have also been observed to induce snow melt in autumn, creating ice layers at the snow surface that prevent further snow accumulation and eliminate the ability of shrubs to trap blowing snow, thereby reducing the winter warming effect. While we understand the physical processes that lead to these effects, we cannot explain why we observe different effects between sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Study of Nonthermal X-Ray and Radio Emission from the O Star 9 Sgr

The observed X-ray and highly variable nonthermal radio emission from OB stars has eluded explanation for more than 18 years. The most favorable model of X-ray production in these stars (shocks) predicts both nonthermal radio and X-ray emission. The nonthermal X-ray emission should occur above 2 keV and the variability of this X-ray component should also be comparable to the observed radio variability. To test this scenario, we proposed an ASC/VLA monitoring program to observe the OB star, 9 Sgr, a well known nonthermal, variable radio source and a strong X-ray source. We requested 625 ks ASCA observations with a temporal spacing of approximately 4 days which corresponds to the time required for a density disturbance to propagate to the 6 cm radio free-free photosphere. The X-ray observations were coordinated with 5 multi-wavelength VLA observations. These observations represent the first systematic attempt to investigate the relationship between the X-ray and radio emission in OB stars.

Waldron, Wayne L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of selected nitric oxide observations in the lower thermosphere by HALOE on UARS

Measurements of nitric oxide mixing ratios have been made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite over an altitude range extending from 15 to 130 km on every spacecraft sunrise and sunset event with the exception of about 8 percent downtime. Selected NO profiles from the first few months of observations were examined with emphasis on the relation between geomagnetic disturbances and enhanced NO in the lower thermosphere. During a large geomagnetic storm on November 8-9, 1991, HALOE obtained 15 NO sunrise profiles along about the 50 deg N latitude circle. A factor of three increase in NO mixing ratio above about 115 km at this latitude and a one to two day decay time were observed. The measured NO longitude/altitude cross section on this day shows a longitudinal asymmetry in the NO distribution with a maximum near the geomagnetic pole. From approximately one month's data, a latitude/altitude cross section of zonal mean NO mixing ratio was calculated. An example of such cross sections demonstrates a strong positive correlation between geomagnetic activity and thermospheric NO globally. This auroral forcing has a larger effect on increasing NO at high latitude than at low latitude.

Luo, Mingzhao↗
NASA NTRS1986

The morphology of Antarctic total ozone as seen by TOMS

A more detailed examination of the TOMS observations reveals a number of important aspects of the Antarctic ozone depletion. First, it is noted that the presence of large scale disturbances around the edge of the ozone hole can lead to highly variable station observations. Second, an examination of the zonal mean total ozone for the seven Octobers shows that the large systematic decline is not simply confined to the polar region but exists at midlatitudes as well. Integrations of the total ozone from the South Pole northwards show that a portion of the systematic trend of decreasing Antarctic total ozone (prior to 1985) seems to be due to a redistribution of total ozone to subpolar and midlatitude regions. That is, decreases at high latitudes are compensated by increases at lower latitudes. The correlation between zonal mean total ozone and 70 mb zonal mean temperatures from polar to midlatitudes shows that the systematic decreases in total ozone is well correlated with a systematic decrease in stratospheric temperatures.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Magnetic disturbances in the vicinity of synchronous orbit and the substorm current wedge - A case study

It is pointed out that magnetospheric substorms have been referred to as the 'fundamental instability' of the magnetosphere which results from coupling between the solar wind and the earth's magnetic and plasma environment. The present paper is mainly concerned with magnetic observations made by the midlatitude Air Force Geophysics Laboratory (AFGL) Magnetometer Network, the GOES 2 and 3 synchronous satellites, and the near-geosynchronous P78-2 Spacecraft Charging at High Altitudes (SCATHA) satellite. Ground-based Pi 2 and magnetic bay observations are used to detect a clear substorm onset. An idealized model of the substorm current system is utilized to relate the observations to the spatial location and temporal development of the substorm disturbance near synchronous orbit.

Singer, H. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants

With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, here we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals’ persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ionospheric Storm Effects and Equatorial Plasma Irregularities During the 17-18 March 2015 Event

The intense magnetic storm on 17-18 March 2015 caused large disturbances of the ionosphere. Based on the plasma density (Ni) observations performed by the Swarm fleet of satellites, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, and the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite, we characterize the storm-related perturbations at low latitudes. All these satellites sampled the ionosphere in morning and evening time sectors where large modifications occurred. Modifications of plasma density are closely related to changes of the solar wind merging electric field (E (sub m)). We consider two mechanisms, prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) and disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF), as the main cause for the Ni redistribution, but effects of meridional wind are also taken into account. At the start of the storm main phase, the PPEF is enhancing plasma density on the dayside and reducing it on the nightside. Later, DDEF takes over and causes the opposite reaction. Unexpectedly, there appears during the recovery phase a strong density enhancement in the morning/pre-noon sector and a severe Ni reduction in the afternoon/evening sector, and we suggest a combined effect of vertical plasma drift, and meridional wind is responsible for these ionospheric storm effects. Different from earlier studies about this storm, we also investigate the influence of storm dynamics on the initiation of equatorial plasma irregularities (EPIs). Shortly after the start of the storm main phase, EPIs appear in the post-sunset sector. As a response to a short-lived decline of E (sub m), EPI activity appears in the early morning sector. Following the second start of the main phase, EPIs are generated for a few hours in the late evening sector. However, for the rest of the storm main phase, no more EPIs are initiated for more than 12 hours. Only after the onset of recovery phase does EPI activity start again in the post-midnight sector, lasting more than 7 hours.This comprehensive view of ionospheric storm effects and plasma irregularities adds to our understanding of conditions that lead to ionospheric instabilities.

Zhou, Yun-Liang↗