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At least 451 records · Page 25

Scientific impacts of wind direction errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (< 45°) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (< 7 m/s) conditions was made. Half of the winds over global oceans are below 7 m/s, in their long-term averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder highlatitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean’s function in modifying Earth’s climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Niño episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3–5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost.

Atlas, Robert↗

Goal-Oriented Discretization Error Control in Coupled Nearfield-Farfield Low-Boom Simulations

The method of adjoint weighted residuals is used to determine the level of discretization error in loudness predictions of sonic booms on the ground. We analyze the standard nearfied-farfield domain decomposition approach. In the nearfield domain, the three-dimensional Euler equations are solved to obtain a pressure signature generated by the aircraft. In the farfield, this waveform is propagated through the atmosphere to the ground by solving the augmented Burgers’ equation. Loudness is characterized using weighted sound-exposure-level metrics. We formulate discretization error estimates for the ground signature and loudness metrics for this one-way coupled system. Although the nearfield solution is independent of the farfield, the adjoint formulation for the coupled system provides feedback from the farfield to identify high-error regions in the nearfield. The results demonstrate that the discrete adjoint implementation is asymptotically consistent and provides reliable error estimates. Furthermore, we show how the error can be controlled through adaptive refinement of the nearfield mesh. The approach is evaluated on two- and three-dimensional problems, including the X-59 flight demonstration aircraft.

CST↗

Systematic Errors in Simulated L-Band Brightness Temperature in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications. The EnKF-based L4_SM analysis assumes unbiased forecast errors. Consequently, the seasonally varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations. The L4_SM system is thus designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (possibly wrong) climatology. In this paper, we examine the Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals from the L4_SM Version 7 product (computed after rescaling the Tb observations to the mean seasonal cycle of the simulated Tb). The long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. The model forecast Tb, however, still exhibits undesirable systematic errors relative to the (rescaled) Tb observations. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗

Discretization Error Estimation and Control for Farfield Acoustic Signatures

We investigate the utility of adjoint-based error estimates for sonic boom farfield simulations governed by solutions of the augmented Burgers’ equation. Solution of this nonlinear system uses operator splitting with a second-order finite volume discretization in space and second-order Runge-Kutta time marching, while the absorption and molecular relaxation are solved using second-order central differencing. The discretization error in selected ground sonic boom cost functionals is estimated using the method of adjoint-weighted residuals. Key elements of the implementation process are emphasized with details provided on the practical aspects as appliedto the sonic boom farfield propagation. We establish the accuracy of the adjoint solutions usingcomplex step and finite difference approaches, and examine the accuracy of the error estimates using analytical N-wave solutions. We then apply it to a pressure waveform corresponding to the X-59 research aircraft. The investigations demonstrate that the method of adjoint-weighted residuals accurately predicts the level of discretization error present in sonic boom farfield simulations while offering insight into which features of the near field signal are the primary drivers of ground noise metrics. The numerical results indicate that at sampling frequencies as low as50kHz, discretization error in the propagation is under 0.01 dB[A] for realistically complex examples.

CST↗

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

thermal errors↗

Preliminary estimates of radiosonde thermistor errors

It has been long realized that radiosonde temperature measurements are subject to errors, not the least of which is the effect of long- and short-wave radiation. Methods of adjusting the daytime temperatures to a nighttime equivalent temperature were developed a number of years ago, and are used by some analysis centers. Other than providing consistent observations for analysis this procedure does not provide a true correction. The literature discusses the problem of radiosonde temperature errors but it is not apparent what effort, if any, has been taken to quantify these errors. In order to quantify this radiation error, radiosondes containing multiple thermistors with different coatings were flown at Goddard Space Flight Center/Wallops Flight Facility. The coatings employed had different spectral characteristics and, therefore, different absorption and emissivity properties. Discrimination of the recorded temperatures enabled day and night correction values to be determined for the US standard white-coated rod thermistor. The correction magnitudes are given and a comparison of US measured temperatures before and after correction are compared with temperatures measured with the Vaisala radiosonde. The US and Vaisala radiosonde data are from the recently completed WMO International Radiosonde Intercomparison held at Wallops. The corrections are in the proper direction, day and night, and reduce day-night temperature differences to less than 0,5°C between surface and 30 hPa. The present uncorrected temperatures used with the Viz radiosonde have day-night differences that exceed 1°C at levels below 90 hPa. Additional measurements are planned to confirm these preliminary results and determine the solar elevation angle effect on the corrections. The technique used to obtain the corrections may also be used to recover a true 'absolute' value and might be considered a valuable contribution to the meteorological community for use as a reference instrument.

Temperature measurement↗

Model Error Budgets

An error budget is a commonly used tool in design of complex aerospace systems. It represents system performance requirements in terms of allowable errors and flows these down through a hierarchical structure to lower assemblies and components. The requirements may simply be 'allocated' based upon heuristics or experience, or they may be designed through use of physics-based models. This paper presents a basis for developing an error budget for models of the system, as opposed to the system itself. The need for model error budgets arises when system models are a principle design agent as is increasingly more common for poorly testable high performance space systems.

error budgets↗

A Starshade Petal Error Budget for Exo-Earth Detection and Characterization

We present a starshade error budget with engineering requirements that are well within the current manufacturing and metrology capabilities. The error budget is based on an observational scenario in which the starshade spins about its axis on timescales short relative to the zodi-limited integration time, typically several hours. The scatter from localized petal errors is smoothed into annuli around the center of the image plane, resulting in a large reduction in the background flux variation while reducing thermal gradients caused by structural shadowing. Having identified the performance sensitivity to petal shape errors with spatial periods of 3-4 cycles/petal as the most challenging aspect of the design, we have adopted and modeled a manufacturing approach that mitigates these perturbations with 1-meter-long precision edge segments positioned using commercial metrology that readily meets assembly requirements. We have performed detailed thermal modeling and show that the expected thermal deformations are well within the requirements as well. We compare the requirements for four cases: a 32 meter diameter starshade with a 1.5 meter telescope, analyzed at 75 and 90 milliarcseconds, and a 40 meter diameter starshade with a 4 meter telescope, analyzed at 60 and 75 milliarcseconds.

error budget↗

Software Error Incident Categorizations in Aerospace

Since the first use of computers in space and aircraft, software errors have occurred. These errors can manifest as loss-of-life or less catastrophically. As the demand for automation increases, software in safety-critical systems should be designed to be tolerant to the most likely software faults. This paper categorizes historic aerospace software errors to determine trends of how and where automation is most likely to fail. A distinction between software producing wrong (erroneous) output versus no output (fail-silent) is introduced. Of the historical incidents analyzed, 87% were from software acting unexpectedly rather than simply stopping. Rebooting was found to be ineffective to clear erroneous behavior, and only partially effective for silent software. Errors were traced back to the software logic itself in 62% of cases, 13% within configurable data, and 25% introduced through input. Thirty percent (30%) of unexpected software behavior was caused by the absence of software and 20% was due to “unknown-unknowns”. These findings indicate that to achieve fault tolerance in safety-critical systems, backup strategies must be employed to detect and respond to erroneous software behavior beyond only fail-silent cases, and robust off-nominal testing should be performed to uncover unanticipated situations.

Software↗

The effect of timing errors in optical digital systems

The effects of imperfect timing in direct detection (non-coherent) optical binary systems using both PPM and on-off keying for bit transmission are investigated. Particular emphasis is placed on specification of timing accuracy, and an examination of system degradation when this accuracy is not attained. Bit error probabilities are shown as a function of timing errors, from which average error probabilities can be computed for specific synchronization methods. Of significant importance is the presence of a residual, or irreducible error probability in both systems, due entirely to the timing system, that cannot be overcome by the data channel.

Gagliardi, R.↗

Multipath error in range rate measurement by PLL-transponder/GRARR/TDRS

Range rate errors due to specular and diffuse multipath are calculated for a tracking and data relay satellite (TDRS) using an S band Goddard range and range rate (GRARR) system modified with a phase-locked loop transponder. Carrier signal processing in the coherent turn-around transponder and the GRARR reciever is taken into account. The root-mean-square (rms) range rate error was computed for the GRARR Doppler extractor and N-cycle count range rate measurement. Curves of worst-case range rate error are presented as a function of grazing angle at the reflection point. At very low grazing angles specular scattering predominates over diffuse scattering as expected, whereas for grazing angles greater than approximately 15 deg, the diffuse multipath predominates. The range rate errors at different low orbit altutudes peaked between 5 and 10 deg grazing angles.

Sohn, S. J.↗

The effect of timing errors in optical digital systems.

The use of digital transmission with narrow light pulses appears attractive for data communications, but carries with it a stringent requirement on system bit timing. The effects of imperfect timing in direct-detection (noncoherent) optical binary systems are investigated using both pulse-position modulation and on-off keying for bit transmission. Particular emphasis is placed on specification of timing accuracy and an examination of system degradation when this accuracy is not attained. Bit error probabilities are shown as a function of timing errors from which average error probabilities can be computed for specific synchronization methods. Of significance is the presence of a residual or irreducible error probability in both systems, due entirely to the timing system, which cannot be overcome by the data channel.

Gagliardi, R. M.↗

Some effects of experimental error in fracture testing

Effects of experimental imprecision on the stress intensity factors calculated for various practical specimen types are shown. A general form equation for the stress intensity factor is presented and a general error equation is derived. The expected error in the stress intensity factor is given in terms of the precision levels of the basic experimental measurements and derivatives of the stress intensity calibration factor. Nine common fracture specimen types are considered, and the sensitivity of the various types to experimental error is illustrated. Some implications for fracture toughness testing and crack growth rate testing are discussed and methods of analysis are proposed to compensate for the effects of experimental error.

Orange, T. W.↗

Floating-point system quantization errors in digital control systems

The results are reported of research into the effects on system operation of signal quantization in a digital control system. The investigation considered digital controllers (filters) operating in floating-point arithmetic in either open-loop or closed-loop systems. An error analysis technique is developed, and is implemented by a digital computer program that is based on a digital simulation of the system. As an output the program gives the programing form required for minimum system quantization errors (either maximum of rms errors), and the maximum and rms errors that appear in the system output for a given bit configuration. The program can be integrated into existing digital simulations of a system.

Phillips, C. L.↗

Some effects of experimental error in fracture testing.

The purpose of this paper is to show the effects of experimental imprecision on the stress intensity factors calculated for various practical specimen types. A general form equation for the stress intensity factor is presented, and a general error equation is derived. The expected error in the stress intensity factor is given in terms of the precision levels of the basic experimental measurements and derivatives of the stress intensity calibration factor. Nine common fracture specimen types are considered, and the sensitivity of the various types to experimental error is illustrated. Some implications for fracture toughness testing and crack growth rate testing are discussed, and methods of analysis are proposed to compensate for the effects of experimental error.

Orange, T. W.↗

Analytical expressions for position error in triangulation solution of point in space for several station configurations

Analytical expressions are derived to first order for the rms position error in the triangulation solution of a point object in space for several ideal observation-station configurations. These expressions provide insights into the nature of the dependence of the rms position error on certain of the experimental parameters involved. The station geometries examined are: (1) the configuration of two arbitrarily located stations; (2) the symmetrical circular configuration of two or more stations with equal elevation angles; and (3) the circular configuration of more than two stations with equal elevation angles, when one of the stations is permitted to drift around the circle from its position of symmetry. The expressions for the rms position error are expressed as functions of the rms line-of-sight errors, the total number of stations of interest, and the elevation angles.

Long, S. A. T.↗

An error criterion for determining sampling rates in closed-loop control systems

The determination of an error criterion which will give a sampling rate for adequate performance of linear, time-invariant closed-loop, discrete-data control systems was studied. The proper modelling of the closed-loop control system for characterization of the error behavior, and the determination of an absolute error definition for performance of the two commonly used holding devices are discussed. The definition of an adequate relative error criterion as a function of the sampling rate and the parameters characterizing the system is established along with the determination of sampling rates. The validity of the expressions for the sampling interval was confirmed by computer simulations. Their application solves the problem of making a first choice in the selection of sampling rates.

Brecher, S. M.↗

Design, performance, and calculated error of a Faraday cup for absolute beam current measurements of 600-MeV protons

A mobile self-contained Faraday cup system for beam current measurments of nominal 600 MeV protons was designed, constructed, and used at the NASA Space Radiation Effects Laboratory. The cup is of reentrant design with a length of 106.7 cm and an outside diameter of 20.32 cm. The inner diameter is 15.24 cm and the base thickness is 30.48 cm. The primary absorber is commercially available lead hermetically sealed in a 0.32-cm-thick copper jacket. Several possible systematic errors in using the cup are evaluated. The largest source of error arises from high-energy electrons which are ejected from the entrance window and enter the cup. A total systematic error of -0.83 percent is calculated to be the decrease from the true current value. From data obtained in calibrating helium-filled ion chambers with the Faraday cup, the mean energy required to produce one ion pair in helium is found to be 30.76 + or - 0.95 eV for nominal 600 MeV protons. This value agrees well, within experimental error, with reported values of 29.9 eV and 30.2 eV.

Beck, S. M.↗