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At least 451 records · Page 25

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NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗

DOE OSTI2025

IRIS-MASH: Efficient Multi-device Asynchronous Multi-Stream Heterogeneous Computing

In the rapidly evolving field of high-performance computing (HPC), effectively leveraging heterogeneous devices through asynchronous task programming is paramount. This paper presents a robust asynchronous task programming model tailored for a multi-device, multi-stream execution environment that incorporates a diverse array of heterogeneous computing units, including GPUs from various vendors and other accelerators. Current state-of-the-art task programming models provide methodologies to support asynchronous task executions, but they typically handle homogeneous devices using native programming languages, while support for heterogeneous devices is limited to frameworks like OpenCL. This gap presents significant challenges in abstracting heterogeneous devices to harness their true asynchronous capabilities effectively using their native programming languages. By implementing asynchronous task execution, our model significantly boosts the performance of tiled algorithm task graphs through overlapping data transfers with computation and enabling the simultaneous execution of multiple kernels. We integrate this approach into a heterogeneous Intelligent Runtime System (IRIS) and assess its performance using a suite of tiled algorithm benchmarks from the heterogeneous math kernels library (MatRIS) based on IRIS. Experimental results demonstrate a performance improvement ranging from 1.6 × to 2 × over IRIS without asynchronous support, and a notable 22% performance enhancement compared to established runtime systems such as StarPU and PaRSEC. This approach significantly improves computation efficiency of HPC workflows and provides a solid base for future exploration and development in the area of asynchronous task programming in heterogeneous systems.

Miniskar, Narasinga Rao [ORNL] (ORCID:000000018259↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modeling heterogeneous processor scheduling for real time systems

A new model is presented to describe dataflow algorithms implemented in a multiprocessing system. Called the resource/data flow graph (RDFG), the model explicitly represents cyclo-static processor schedules as circuits of processor arcs which reflect the order that processors execute graph nodes. The model also allows the guarantee of meeting hard real-time deadlines. When unfolded, the model identifies statically the processor schedule. The model therefore is useful for determining the throughput and latency of systems with heterogeneous processors. The applicability of the model is demonstrated using a space surveillance algorithm.

Leathrum, J. F.↗

DOE OSTI2019

SST-GPU: An Execution -Driven CUDA Kernel Scheduler and Streaming-Multiprocessor Compute Model

Programmable accelerators have become commonplace in modern computing systems. Advances in programming models and the availability of massive amounts of data have created a space for massively parallel acceleration where the context for thousands of concurrent threads are resident on-chip. These threads are grouped and interleaved on a cycle-by-cycle basis among several massively parallel computing cores. The design of future supercomputers relies on an ability to model the performance of these massively parallel cores at scale. To address the need for a scalable, decentralized GPU model that can model large GPUs, chiplet-based GPUs and multi-node GPUs, this report details the first steps in integrating the open-source, execution driven GPGPU-Sim into the SST framework. The first stage of this project, creates two elements: a kernel scheduler SST element accepts work from SST CPU models and schedules it to an SM-collection element that performs cycle-by-cycle timing using SSTs Mem Hierarchy to model a flexible memory system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dispatch Manager for NEML2 Constitutive Model Calculations Embedded in MOOSE

This report describes the extended capabilities of the NEML2 constitutive modeling library, including a flexible and efficient work dispatching system designed to leverage both CPU and GPU resources. This enhancement addresses one of the primary computational challenges in large-scale simulations: the ability to distribute and execute batches of material model evaluations across heterogeneous computing devices. The new dispatch system introduces a modular set of dispatcher and scheduler classes that coordinate the flow of data and execution between devices. The dispatcher is responsible for efficiently packaging work, managing device-specific memory operations, and synchronizing results. This modularity allows for extensibility, making it straightforward to integrate additional computing backends in the future. From an implementation standpoint, the dispatcher system interfaces seamlessly with NEML2's existing models. They handle device-aware tensor operations, optimize memory transfers, and support asynchronous execution when applicable. This design ensures that batches of material points can be evaluated concurrently, substantially improving throughput compared to previous single-device or serial implementations. These improvements not only enhance the raw performance of NEML2 but also improve its usability in multiscale and high-fidelity simulations, where the simultaneous evaluation of large material point batches is critical. Benchmarks included in the report demonstrate the system’s scalability, highlighting its effectiveness when leveraging modern GPU architectures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

One-dimensional biomass fast pyrolysis model with reaction kinetics integrated in an Aspen Plus Biorefinery Process Model

A biomass fast pyrolysis reactor model with detailed reaction kinetics and one-dimensional fluid dynamics was implemented in an equation-oriented modeling environment (Aspen Custom Modeler). Portions of this work were detailed in previous publications; further modifications have been made here to improve stability and reduce execution time of the model to make it compatible for use in large process flowsheets. The detailed reactor model was integrated into a larger process simulation in Aspen Plus and was stable for different feedstocks over a range of reactor temperatures. Sample results are presented that indicate general agreement with experimental results, but with higher gas losses caused by stripping of the bio-oil by the fluidizing gas in the simulated absorber/condenser. Lastly, this integrated modeling approach can be extended to other well-defined, predictive reactor models for fast pyrolysis, catalytic fast pyrolysis, as well as other processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Space station Ada runtime support for nested atomic transactions

The Space Station Data Management System (DMS), associated computing subsystems, and applications have varying degrees of reliability associated with their operation. A model has been developed (McKay '86) which allows the DMS runtime environment to appear as an Ada virtual machine to applications executing within it. This model is modular, flexible, and dynamically configurable to allow for evolution and growth over time. Support for Fault-tolerant computing is included within this model. The basic primitive involved in this support is based on atomic actions (Grey '78). An atomic action possesses two fundamental properties: (1) it is indivisible with respect to concurrent actions, and (2) it is indivisible with respect to failure. A transaction is a collection of atomic actions which collectively appear to be one action. Transactions may be nested, providing even more powerful support for reliability. A proposed approach is described for providing support for nested atomic transactions within the Ada runtime model developed for the Space Station environment. The level of support is modular, flexible and dynamically configurable just like the overall runtime support environment.

Monteiro, Edward J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Dispersal During the Loss-of-Coolant Accident

This document is the compilation of the milestone portion to a larger end of project NEUP report. The executive summary of the modeling portion is provided below: In the event of cladding rupture during a postulated LOCA in a pressurized water reactor, fuel particles, along with fission gases, can be expelled into the reactor core from the fractured fuel rod, a phenomenon referred to as fuel dispersal. The initial stage of fuel dispersal is strongly influenced by the high-pressure ejection of fuel fragments, the size and geometry of the ruptured cladding, and the depressurization history of the fuel rod during the postulated LOCA transient. Depending on the location of the burst orifice relative to the quench front, the dispersal event represents an intricate three-phase flow and heat transfer phenomenon, where high-temperature fuel particles carried by the fission gases interact with the coolant within the narrow subchannels of the fuel assemblies, inducing localized phase change. Given the unique multiphysics nature of this phenomena, the current study develops a dedicated computational framework to predict the mass distribution and cooling of dispersing fuel particles, facilitating post-accident assessment and management of the fuel assemblies. Considering the scale of nuclear reactor applications, a continuum three-fluid model is proposed for simulating the transport of solids within the reactor core. With high-temperature fuel fragments within the liquid media, nucleation sites inducing phase changes are dispersed within the flow domain. Coupled with the fact that the transient dispersal event occurs on different time scales than other three-phase flow applications, this study derives a time-averaged three-fluid flow model without losing generality. The assumptions regarding the continuum treatment of the solid phase and the modeling of fuel dispersal behavior are incorporated to simplify the governing equations and derive applicable closure relations. The computational validation of the model was conducted using adiabatic experimental results obtained from ongoing research at Oregon State University, focusing on characterizing fuel dispersal behavior during simulated LOCA conditions. Settlement characteristics of the solids, quantified by the probability distribution of equivalent particles, closely matched the probability density functions reported in experimental studies. The transport of fuel particles within a scaled 5 × 5 lattice of a pressurized-water reactor rod bundle geometry was modeled through a two-fluid Eulerian framework. The required boundary conditions were evaluated from the fuel performance code BISON in a postulated large-break LOCA scenario. The modeling framework considered solid fuel particles as granular matter, interacting with the gaseous dry steam phase and fission gases through the governing interfacial momentum exchange between the participating fluids. The simulation results provided the volume fraction of the solids obtained at the bottom surface of the enclosing tank geometry. Postulated LOCA leading to fuel dispersal phenomena involves the strong coupling between fuel thermomechanics, cladding deformation, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel particle transport. Incorporation of such a strong coupling in numerical simulation is performed by coupling the multiphysics solvers. In the case of fuel dispersal, a strong coupled simulation can be performed by coupling the BISON code for fuel performance, the TRACE code for system-level thermal hydraulics, and fuel particle transport in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). For such intricate infrastructure, the MOOSE Framework eases the data transfer between codes. The recent version of MOOSE has incorporated the Navier-Stokes module for the fluid flow. An exploratory exercise was done to gain familiarity with finite volume capabilities in the MOOSE framework to incorporate the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence model. New finite-volume and auxiliary kernels were introduced to assemble the SA transport equation, compute turbulent viscosity, and evaluate wall distance and diagnostic turbulence terms, fully integrated with existing Navier-Stokes modules. A turbulent lid-driven cavity at a Reynolds number of approximately 10,000 is used for verification. MOOSE shows the robust solver convergence and produces the turbulent features. But it underpredicts the velocity profile and turbulent quantities, emphasizing the need to develop improved SA near-wall treatments (e.g., low-Re corrections or wall functions) as a key direction for future work.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A REDUCED ORDER MODELING APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC CREEP-DAMAGE PREDICTIONS IN FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper introduces a computationally efficient Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) approach for the probabilistic prediction of creep-damage failure. Component-level probabilistic simulations are needed to assess the reliability and safety of high-temperature components. Full-scale probabilistic creep-damage modeling in finite element (FE) approach is computationally expensive requiring many hundreds of simulations to replicate the uncertainty of component failure. To that end, ROM is proposed to minimize the elevated computational cost while controlling the loss of accuracy. It is proposed that full-scale probabilistic simulations can be completed in 1D at a reduced cost, the extremum conditions extracted, and those conditions applied for lower-cost 2D/3D probabilistic simulations of components that capture the mean and uncertainty of failure. The probabilistic Sine-hyperbolic (Sinh) model is selected which in previous work was calibrated to alloy 304 stainless steel. The Sinh model includes probability density functions (pdfs) for test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage (i.e. microstructure), and material properties uncertainty. The Sinh model is programmed into ANSYS finite element software using the USERCREEP.F material subroutine. First, the Sinh model and FE code are subject to verification and validation to ensure the accuracy of the simulations. Numerous Monte Carlo simulations are executed in a 1D model to generate probabilistic creep deformation, damage, and rupture data. This data is analyzed and the probabilistic parameters corresponding to extreme creep response are extracted. The ROM concept is applied where only the extreme conditions are applied in the 2D probabilistic prediction of a component. The probabilistic predictions between the 1D and 2D geometry is compared to assess ROM for creep. The accuracy of the probabilistic prediction employing the ROM approach will potentially reduce the time and cost of simulating complex engineering systems. Future studies will introduce multi-stage Sinh, stochasticity, and spatial uncertainty for improved prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Artemis Distributed Simulation FOMs

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is formulating and developing the Artemis Program, a collaboration with domestic commercial and international partners that will establish a long term human presence on the Moon and extend human exploration beyond the Earth-Moon system ahead of exploring Mars. These Artemis partners are developing a portfolio of space and surface systems to support human missions to the lunar surface and beyond. The Artemis systems will provide the mobility, habitation, and logistics infrastructure that will support human exploration and foster robust scientific investigations. Each partner will contribute one or more elements to the Artemis Program with NASA having the overarching responsibility for defining the Artemis architecture and guiding the integration of this complex system of space systems. To successfully accomplish this audacious task, NASA will rely on the development and execution of many complex models and simulations. Many of these simulations will be provided by the Artemis partners. While each of these simulations will provide important insight into the characteristics and performance of an associated system, individually they will not provide insight into the integrated performance of the architecture and the system of systems working in concert to execute a given Artemis mission. To address this need, NASA is developing a distributed simulation capability called the Artemis Distributed Simulation (ADS). ADS’s distributed nature supports the complex aggregation of constituent Artemis element simulations. Artemis partner simulations will be able to join into an ADS-based distributed simulation and interact with other Artemis element simulations while limiting the exposure of proprietary designs and data. ADS is defining a distributed simulation capability built on international simulation interoperability standards, specifically the High Level Architecture (HLA) and the Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM). While HLA and SpaceFOM provide the substantive necessary technology basis for ADS, additional common datatypes, message definitions, and execution protocols are required. These extensions constitute the ADS Federation Object Model (FOM). This paper describes the fundamental architectural elements of ADS and the FOM extensions needed to support the complex nature of the Artemis Program. This includes the examination of the ADS FOM modules, ADS base datatypes, ADS SpaceFOM Object Class extensions, new ADS Object Classes, and new ADS Interaction Classes.

HLA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Artemis Distributed Simulation FOMs

HLA↗

DOE OSTI2017

Near-Term Operational Planning at the Hanford Tank Farms: Link to Execution - 17091

Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC uses an earned value management system to flow-down contractual requirements to operational activities. A Rolling Work Window Schedule Process is then used to plan and coordinate near-term operational activities at the Hanford tank farms for execution. This near-term operational planning process has been extended using a Multi-Year Operating Plan, underpinned with a dynamic simulation model, to better link execution of daily activities with mission objectives. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Ground Plane and Near-Surface Thermal Analysis for NASA's Constellation Program

Most spacecraft thermal analysis tools assume that the spacecraft is in orbit around a planet and are designed to calculate solar and planetary fluxes, as well as radiation to space. On NASA Constellation projects, thermal analysts are also building models of vehicles in their pre-launch condition on the surface of a planet. This process entails making some modifications in the building and execution of a thermal model such that the radiation from the planet, both reflected albedo and infrared, is calculated correctly. Also important in the calculation of pre-launch vehicle temperatures are the natural environments at the vehicle site, including air and ground temperatures, sky radiative background temperature, solar flux, and optical properties of the ground around the vehicle. A group of Constellation projects have collaborated on developing a cohesive, integrated set of natural environments that accurately capture worst-case thermal scenarios for the pre-launch and launch phases of these vehicles. The paper will discuss the standardization of methods for local planet modeling across Constellation projects, as well as the collection and consolidation of natural environments for launch sites. Methods for Earth as well as lunar sites will be discussed.

Gasbarre, Joseph F.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Integrated High Resolution Hydrometeorological Modeling Testbed using LIS and WRF

Scientists have made great strides in modeling physical processes that represent various weather and climate phenomena. Many modeling systems that represent the major earth system components (the atmosphere, land surface, and ocean) have been developed over the years. However, developing advanced Earth system applications that integrates these independently developed modeling systems have remained a daunting task due to limitations in computer hardware and software. Recently, efforts such as the Earth System Modeling Ramework (ESMF) and Assistance for Land Modeling Activities (ALMA) have focused on developing standards, guidelines, and computational support for coupling earth system model components. In this article, the development of a coupled land-atmosphere hydrometeorological modeling system that adopts these community interoperability standards, is described. The land component is represented by the Land Information System (LIS), developed by scientists at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, is used as the atmospheric component. LIS includes several community land surface models that can be executed at spatial scales as fine as 1km. The data management capabilities in LIS enable the direct use of high resolution satellite and observation data for modeling. Similarly, WRF includes several parameterizations and schemes for modeling radiation, microphysics, PBL and other processes. Thus the integrated LIS-WRF system facilitates several multi-model studies of land-atmosphere coupling that can be used to advance earth system studies.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

DOE OSTI2017

A multi criteria analog model for assessing the vulnerability of rural catchments to road spills of hazardous substances

Road spills of hazardous substances are common in developing countries due to increasing industrialization and traffic accidents, and represent a serious threat to soils and water in catchments. There is abundant literature on equations describing the wash-off of pollutants from roads during a storm event and there are a number of watershed models incorporating those equations in storm water quality algorithms that route runoff and pollution yields through a drainage system towards the catchment outlet. However, methods describing catchment vulnerability to contamination by road spills based solely on biophysical parameters are scarce. These methods could be particularly attractive to managers because they can operate with a limited amount of easily collectable data, while still being able to provide important insights on the areas more prone to contamination within the studied watershed. The purpose of this paper was then to contribute with a new vulnerability model. To accomplish the goal, a selection of medium properties appearing in wash-off equations and routing algorithms were assembled and processed in a parametric framework based on multi criteria analysis to define the watershed vulnerability. However, parameters had to be adapted because wash-off equations and water quality models have been developed to operate primarily in the urban environment while the vulnerability model is meant to run in rural watersheds. The selected parameters were hillside slope, ground roughness (depending on land use), soil permeability (depending on soil type), distance to water courses and stream density. The vulnerability model is a spatially distributed algorithm that was prepared to run under the IDRISI Selva software, a GIS platform capable of handling spatial and alphanumeric data and execute the necessary terrain model, hydrographic and thematic analyses. For illustrative purposes, the vulnerability model was applied to the legally protected Environmental Protection Area (APA), located in the Uberaba region, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. In this region, the risk of accidents causing chemical spills is preoccupying because large quantities of dangerous materials are transported in two important distribution highways while the APA is fundamental for the protection of water resources, the riverine ecosystems and remnants of native vegetation. In some tested scenarios, model results show 60% of vulnerable areas within the studied area. The most sensitive parameter to vulnerability is soil type. To prevent soils from contamination, specific measures were proposed involving minimization of land use conflicts that would presumably raise the soil's organic matter and in the sequel restore the soil's structural functions. Additionally, the present study proposed the preservation and reinforcement of riparian forests as one measure to protect the quality of surface water. - Highlights: • A multi criteria analog model was developed to assess rural catchment vulnerability along roads. • Model parameters were defined by analogy with urban wash-off equations and routing algorithms. • The model mixes up various biophysical and socio-economic parameters. • Model application was based on a scenario analysis. • The study is focused on the Environmental Protection Area of Uberaba River, Brazil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

A cross impact methodology for the assessment of US telecommunications system with application to fiber optics development: Executive summary

A cross impact model of the U.S. telecommunications system was developed. For this model, it was necessary to prepare forecasts of the major segments of the telecommunications system, such as satellites, telephone, TV, CATV, radio broadcasting, etc. In addition, forecasts were prepared of the traffic generated by a variety of new or expanded services, such as electronic check clearing and point of sale electronic funds transfer. Finally, the interactions among the forecasts were estimated (the cross impacts). Both the forecasts and the cross impacts were used as inputs to the cross impact model, which could then be used to stimulate the future growth of the entire U.S. telecommunications system. By varying the inputs, technology changes or policy decisions with regard to any segment of the system could be evaluated in the context of the remainder of the system. To illustrate the operation of the model, a specific study was made of the deployment of fiber optics, throughout the telecommunications system.

Martino, J. P.↗