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At least 451 records · Page 25

Four Problematic Methods in Reliability Analysis

Some basic methods used in reliability analysis are problematic because they produce incorrect and overoptimistic predictions. Initially gratifying forecasts are often invalidated by testing and operational experience. The problematic methods in reliability analysis include estimating the system failure rate as the sum of component failure rates, assuming that reliability growth continues indefinitely during testing, overestimating the benefits of redundancy, and using the fault tolerance count instead of a detailed reliability analysis. Reliability analysis can produce more optimism than accuracy. This bug may now be a feature. The optimistic bias inevitable in project planning should be corrected by realistic reliability analysis that reflects relevant experience. That the repeated poor performance of reliability analysis is found to be surprising suggests willful blindness. Rigorous methods and impartial critical review are necessary to improve reliability analysis.

Reliability analysis↗

Inter-Area Oscillation Damping with Type-5 Wind Power Plant: Preprint

This paper investigates the potential of using brushless excitation (BLE) for not only riding through the fault but also to damp inter-area power oscillation with the help of a synchronous generator (SG) used in Type 5 Wind Power Plant (WPP). In BLE, an auxiliary synchronous generator (ASG) behaving like an exciter is coupled and driven by the rotor of the main SG. The BLE's field current's ASG is fed by two separate loops of the automatic voltage regulator (AVR) and Power System Stabilizer (PSS). The AVR system implements a control loop to regulate the generator terminal voltage, VT. For the PSS, the kinetic energy of the wind turbine is utilized according to the estimated rotational speed of the synchronous generator shaft of the SG. It mitigates the necessity of any curtailment of active power for damping. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is verified with a three-phase short circuit fault in a two-area power system.

brushless↗

Inter-Area Oscillation Damping with Type-5 Wind Power Plant

This paper investigates the potential of using brushless excitation (BLE) for not only riding through the fault but also to damp inter-area power oscillation with the help of a synchronous generator (SG) used in Type 5 Wind Power Plant (WPP). In BLE, an auxiliary synchronous generator (ASG) behaving like an exciter is coupled and driven by the rotor of the main SG. The BLE's field current's ASG is fed by two separate loops of the automatic voltage regulator (AVR) and power system stabilizer (PSS). The AVR system implements a control loop to regulate the generator terminal voltage, VT. For the PSS, the kinetic energy of the wind turbine is utilized according to the estimated rotational speed of the synchronous generator shaft of the SG. It may mitigate the necessity of any curtailment of active power for damping. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is verified with a three-phase short circuit fault in a two-area power system.

brushless↗

Global Dynamic Modeling of Space-Geodetic Data

The proposal had outlined a year for program conversion, a year for testing and debugging, and two years for numerical experiments. We kept to that schedule. In first (partial) year, author designed a finite element for isostatic thin-shell deformation on a sphere, derived all of its algebraic and stiffness properties, and embedded it in a new finite element code which derives its basic solution strategy (and some critical subroutines) from earlier flat-Earth codes. Also designed and programmed a new fault element to represent faults along plate boundaries. Wrote a preliminary version of a spherical graphics program for the display of output. Tested this new code for accuracy on individual model plates. Made estimates of the computer-time/cost efficiency of the code for whole-earth grids, which were reasonable. Finally, converted an interactive graphical grid-designer program from Cartesian to spherical geometry to permit the beginning of serious modeling. For reasons of cost efficiency, models are isostatic, and do not consider the local effects of unsupported loads or bending stresses. The requirements are: (1) ability to represent rigid rotation on a sphere; (2) ability to represent a spatially uniform strain-rate tensor in the limit of small elements; and (3) continuity of velocity across all element boundaries. Author designed a 3-node triangle shell element which has two different sets of basis functions to represent (vector) velocity and all other (scalar) variables. Such elements can be shown to converge to the formulas for plane triangles in the limit of small size, but can also applied to cover any area smaller than a hemisphere. The difficult volume integrals involved in computing the stiffness of such elements are performed numerically using 7 Gauss integration points on the surface of the sphere, beneath each of which a vertical integral is performed using about 100 points.

Bird, Peter↗

Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation

Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).

Vatan, Farrokh↗

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. Additionally, the method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On requirements for software fault tolerance for flight controls

The need for the application of software fault tolerance techniques in digital flight control systems is argued to follow from the requirements derivable from the safety constraints of such systems, requirements which can be stated in terms of minimum acceptable system reliability levels and, moreover, stated quantitatively. It is argued further that, while fault tolerance appears to be a viable mechanism in general, individual fault tolerance schemes need to be analyzed to ensure that they are adequate to the task and being properly utilized, that such analysis is essentially an exercise in software 'reliability' estimation involving software characteristics not currently included in software 'reliability' modeling (most especially, the degree of correlation of malfunctions among redundant, dissimilar software modules), and that, consequently, further research and studies in the characterization of software behavior and malfunctions is required.

Migneault, G. E.↗

Hidden Markov models and neural networks for fault detection in dynamic systems

Neural networks plus hidden Markov models (HMM) can provide excellent detection and false alarm rate performance in fault detection applications, as shown in this viewgraph presentation. Modified models allow for novelty detection. Key contributions of neural network models are: (1) excellent nonparametric discrimination capability; (2) a good estimator of posterior state probabilities, even in high dimensions, and thus can be embedded within overall probabilistic model (HMM); and (3) simple to implement compared to other nonparametric models. Neural network/HMM monitoring model is currently being integrated with the new Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna controller software and will be on-line monitoring a new DSN 34-m antenna (DSS-24) by July, 1994.

Smyth, Padhraic↗

Neural Network-Based Sensor Validation for Turboshaft Engines

Sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation using a neural network approach is described. An auto-associative neural network is configured to perform dimensionality reduction on the sensor measurement vector and provide estimated sensor values. The sensor validation scheme is applied in a simulation of the T700 turboshaft engine in closed loop operation. Performance is evaluated based on the ability to detect faults correctly and maintain stable and responsive engine operation. The set of sensor outputs used for engine control forms the network input vector. Analytical redundancy is verified by training networks of successively smaller bottleneck layer sizes. Training data generation and strategy are discussed. The engine maintained stable behavior in the presence of sensor hard failures. With proper selection of fault determination thresholds, stability was maintained in the presence of sensor soft failures.

Moller, James C.↗

Mission Data System Java Edition Version 7

The Mission Data System framework defines closed-loop control system abstractions from State Analysis including interfaces for state variables, goals, estimators, and controllers that can be adapted to implement a goal-oriented control system. The framework further provides an execution environment that includes a goal scheduler, execution engine, and fault monitor that support the expression of goal network activity plans. Using these frameworks, adapters can build a goal-oriented control system where activity coordination is verified before execution begins (plan time), and continually during execution. Plan failures including violations of safety constraints expressed in the plan can be handled through automatic re-planning. This version optimizes a number of key interfaces and features to minimize dependencies, performance overhead, and improve reliability. Fault diagnosis and real-time projection capabilities are incorporated. This version enhances earlier versions primarily through optimizations and quality improvements that raise the technology readiness level. Goals explicitly constrain system states over explicit time intervals to eliminate ambiguity about intent, as compared to command-oriented control that only implies persistent intent until another command is sent. A goal network scheduling and verification process ensures that all goals in the plan are achievable before starting execution. Goal failures at runtime can be detected (including predicted failures) and handled by adapted response logic. Responses can include plan repairs (try an alternate tactic to achieve the same goal), goal shedding, ignoring the fault, cancelling the plan, or safing the system.

Reinholtz, William K.↗

The flares of August 1972

Observations of the August, 1972 flares at Big Bear and Tel Aviv, involving monochromatic movies, magnetograms, and spectra, are analyzed. The region (McMath 11976) showed inverted polarity from its inception on July 11; the great activity was due to extremely high shear and gradients in the magnetic field, as well as a constant invasion of one polarity into the opposite; observations in lambda 3835 show remarkable fast flashes in the impulsive flare of 18:38 UT on Aug. 2 with lifetimes of 5 sec, which may be due to dumping of particles in the lower chromosphere. Flare loops show evolutionary increases of their tilts to the neutral line in the flares of Aug. 4 and 7. Spectroscopic observations show red asymmetry and red shift of the H alpha emission in the flash phase of the Aug. 7 flare, as well as substantial velocity shear in the photosphere during the flare, somewhat like earthquake movement along a fault. Finally the total H alpha emission of the Aug. 7 flare could be measured accurately as about 2.5 x 10 to the 30th power erg, considerably less than coarser previous estimates for great flares.

Zirin, H.↗

Development of a microprocessor controller for stand-alone photovoltaic power systems

A controller for stand-alone photovoltaic systems has been developed using a low power CMOS microprocessor. It performs battery state of charge estimation, array control, load management, instrumentation, automatic testing, and communications functions. Array control options are sequential subarray switching and maximum power control. A calculator keypad and LCD display provides manual control, fault diagnosis and digital multimeter functions. An RS-232 port provides data logging or remote control capability. A prototype 5 kW unit has been built and tested successfully. The controller is expected to be useful in village photovoltaic power systems, large solar water pumping installations, and other battery management applications.

Millner, A. R.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, August 2004

Topics covered include: Data Relay Board with Protocol for High-Speed, Free-Space Optical Communications; Software and Algorithms for Biomedical Image Data Processing and Visualization; Rapid Chemometric Filtering of Spectral Data; Prioritizing Scientific Data for Transmission; Determining Sizes of Particles in a Flow from DPIV Data; Faster Processing for Inverting GPS Occultation Data; FPGA-Based, Self-Checking, Fault-Tolerant Computers; Ultralow-Power Digital Correlator for Microwave Polarimetry; Grounding Headphones for Protection Against ESD; Lightweight Stacks of Direct Methanol Fuel Cells; Highly Efficient Vector-Inversion Pulse Generators; Estimating Basic Preliminary Design Performances of Aerospace Vehicles; Framework for Development of Object-Oriented Software; Analyzing Spacecraft Telecommunication Systems; Collaborative Planning of Robotic Exploration; Tools for Administration of a UNIX-Based Network; Preparing and Analyzing Iced Airfoils; Evaluating Performance of Components; Fuels Containing Methane of Natural Gas in Solution; Direct Electrolytic Deposition of Mats of MnxOy Nanowires; Bubble Eliminator Based on Centrifugal Flow; Inflatable Emergency Atmospheric-Entry Vehicles; Lightweight Deployable Mirrors with Tensegrity Supports; Centrifugal Adsorption Cartridge System; Ultrasonic Apparatus for Pulverizing Brittle Material; Transplanting Retinal Cells using Bucky Paper for Support; Using an Ultrasonic Instrument to Size Extravascular Bubbles; Coronagraphic Notch Filter for Raman Spectroscopy; On-the-Fly Mapping for Calibrating Directional Antennas; Working Fluids for Increasing Capacities of Heat Pipes; Computationally-Efficient Minimum-Time Aircraft Routes in the Presence of Winds; Liquid-Metal-Fed Pulsed Plasma Thrusters; Personal Radiation Protection System; and Attitude Control for a Solar-Sail Spacecraft.

Source record↗

Wavelet-Based Real-Time Diagnosis of Complex Systems

A new method of robust, autonomous real-time diagnosis of a time-varying complex system (e.g., a spacecraft, an advanced aircraft, or a process-control system) is presented here. It is based upon the characterization and comparison of (1) the execution of software, as reported by discrete data, and (2) data from sensors that monitor the physical state of the system, such as performance sensors or similar quantitative time-varying measurements. By taking account of the relationship between execution of, and the responses to, software commands, this method satisfies a key requirement for robust autonomous diagnosis, namely, ensuring that control is maintained and followed. Such monitoring of control software requires that estimates of the state of the system, as represented within the control software itself, are representative of the physical behavior of the system. In this method, data from sensors and discrete command data are analyzed simultaneously and compared to determine their correlation. If the sensed physical state of the system differs from the software estimate (see figure) or if the system fails to perform a transition as commanded by software, or such a transition occurs without the associated command, the system has experienced a control fault. This method provides a means of detecting such divergent behavior and automatically generating an appropriate warning.

Gulati, Sandeep↗

Quantum computation of stopping power for inertial fusion target design

Stopping power is the rate at which a material absorbs the kinetic energy of a charged particle passing through it—one of many properties needed over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions in modeling inertial fusion implosions. First-principles stopping calculations are classically challenging because they involve the dynamics of large electronic systems far from equilibrium, with accuracies that are particularly difficult to constrain and assess in the warm-dense conditions preceding ignition. Here, we describe a protocol for using a fault-tolerant quantum computer to calculate stopping power from a first-quantized representation of the electrons and projectile. Our approach builds upon the electronic structure block encodings of Su et al. [ PRX Quant. 2 , 040332 (2021)], adapting and optimizing those algorithms to estimate observables of interest from the non-Born–Oppenheimer dynamics of multiple particle species at finite temperature. We also work out the constant factors associated with an implementation of a high-order Trotter approach to simulating a grid representation of these systems. Ultimately, we report logical qubit requirements and leading-order Toffoli costs for computing the stopping power of various projectile/target combinations relevant to interpreting and designing inertial fusion experiments. We estimate that scientifically interesting and classically intractable stopping power calculations can be quantum simulated with roughly the same number of logical qubits and about one hundred times more Toffoli gates than is required for state-of-the-art quantum simulations of industrially relevant molecules such as FeMoco or P450.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Detailed space–time variations of the seismic response of the shallow crust to small earthquakes from analysis of dense array data

SUMMARY We compute high-resolution space–time variations of subsurface seismic properties from autocorrelation functions (ACF’s) of noise and local earthquakes, recorded by the Sage Brush Flat dense array deployed around the Clark branch of the San Jacinto fault. The resolved temporal changes are referred to as apparent velocity changes because they reflect both nonlinear response and variations of material properties such as cracking and damage. Apparent velocity changes are estimated at four frequency bands (10–15, 10–20, 15–30 and 20–40 Hz) for two local earthquake data sets. In one analysis, ACF’s from P- and S-wave windows of 31 small events with magnitudes below 3.1 are used to compute the apparent velocity variations with respect to the mean ACF of each phase, and we also use the mean ACF of noise data as reference to estimate the changes. In a further analysis, the temporal evolution of properties is computed using moving time windows in continuous waveform over one-hour long data with noise and earthquake signals. The apparent velocity changes and recovery times are frequency dependent and present a strong spatial variability across the array. The resolved changes are larger and recovery time shorter with data associated with higher frequencies. At frequencies larger than 15 Hz, and using the mean ACF of noise data as a reference, the apparent average velocity changes across the array during the passage of the P and S waves from the small local events are 2.5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The apparent velocity changes decrease by one order of magnitude when the earthquake data are used as a reference. The relatively large changes in response to very low ground motion have important implications on nonlinear processes involving degradation and healing of the subsurface material during common earthquake shaking.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Real-time diagnostics of the reusable rocket engine using on-line system identification

A model-based failure diagnosis system has been proposed for real-time diagnosis of SSME failures. Actuation, sensor, and system degradation failure modes are all considered by the proposed system. In the case of SSME actuation failures, it was shown that real-time identification can effectively be used for failure diagnosis purposes. It is a direct approach since it reduces the detection, isolation, and the estimation of the extent of the failures to the comparison of parameter values before and after the failure. As with any model-based failure detection system, the proposed approach requires a fault model that embodies the essential characteristics of the failure process. The proposed diagnosis approach has the added advantage that it can be used as part of an intelligent control system for failure accommodation purposes.

Guo, T.-H.↗

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗