Use of spatially refined satellite remote sensing fire detection data to initialize and evaluate coupled weather‐wildfire growth model simulations
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Janice L. Coen↗
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Modeling the Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols: Young Smoke Aerosols From Savanna Fires and Comparisons to Observations from SAFARI 2000
Annually, farmers in southern Africa manage their land resources and prepare their fields for cultivation by burning crop residual debris, with a peak in the burning season occurring during August and September. The emissions from these fires in southern Africa are among the greatest from fires worldwide, and the gases and aerosol particles produced adversely affect air quality large distances from their source regions, and can even be tracked in satellite imagery as they cross the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. During August and September 2000 an international group of researchers participating in the Southern African Regional Science Initiate field experiment (SAFARI 2000) made extensive ground-based, airborne, and satellite measurements of these gases and aerosols in order to quantify their amounts and effects on Earth's atmosphere. In this study we interpreted the measurements of smoke aerosol particles made during SAFARI 2000 in order to better represent these particles in a numerical model simulating their transport and fate. Typically, smoke aerosols emitted from fires are concentrated by mass in particles about 0.3 micrometers in diameter (1,000,000 micrometers = 1 meter, about 3 feet); for comparison, the thickness of a human hair is about 50 micrometers, almost 200 times as great. Because of the size of these particles, at the surface they can be easily inhaled into the lungs, and in high concentrations have deleterious health effects on humans. Additionally, these particles reflect and absorb sunlight, impacting both visibility and the balance of sunlight reaching -Earth's surface, and ultimately play a role in modulating Earth's climate. Because of these important effects, it is important that numerical models used to estimate Earth's climate response to changes in atmospheric composition accurately represent the quantity and evolution of smoke particles. In our model, called the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) we used estimates of smoke emissions based on field studies and observations made with the NASA Terra and TRMM satellites. The meteorology used to calculate the transport was based on an assimilation of observed meteorological conditions provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Matichuk, R. I.↗
AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning
Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Connections Between Stratospheric Pollution and the Asian Summer Monsoon
The Asian Monsoon leads to rapid vertical transport of gases and aerosols into the upper troposphere. Some of the pollution might be transported above cloud levels, which will allow it to spread globally and possibly at some occasions reach into the stratosphere. In this study we will use the GISS climate model to investigate the interactions between pollution and convective transport as well as secondary aerosol formation. Pollution resulting from anthropogenic activity as well as from natural sources such as small and large volcanic eruptions, dust storms and forest fires will be quantified. This modeling study will be accompanied by satellite observations from space that monitor aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and absorption AOT (AAOT) in two and three dimensions. Our goal is a better process level understanding of the evolution of natural and anthropogenic aerosol plumes in conjunction with the Asian Monsoon. Hence, we aim to explain their large-scale expansion, which eventually determines their impacts on climate.
Asia↗
Analysis of rocket engine injection combustion processes
A critique is given of the JANNAF sub-critical propellant injection/combustion process analysis computer models and application of the models to correlation of well documented hot fire engine data bases. These programs are the distributed energy release (DER) model for conventional liquid propellants injectors and the coaxial injection combustion model (CICM) for gaseous annulus/liquid core coaxial injectors. The critique identifies model inconsistencies while the computer analyses provide quantitative data on predictive accuracy. The program is comprised of three tasks: (1) computer program review and operations; (2) analysis and data correlations; and (3) documentation.
Salmon, J. W.↗
Topical: Recommendations for Fire Extinguisher Research for Crewed Missions
Fire extinguishers are a necessary component of crewed space missions, providing a measure of fire safety beyond material selection and other controls. The elevated oxygen levels and presence of reduced but significant buoyancy during proposed Lunar and Martian missions presents both elevated fire risk and challenges in understanding and designing for extinguisher performance. This white paper proposes experimental and modeling research into the performance of fire extinguishers in Lunar and Martian atmosphere and gravity environments, exploring the use of additives to water extinguishers and research into alternative extinguishing materials, and exploration into the use of Froude number scaling relationships, used in terrestrial water extinguishing research and design, in the Lunar and Martian environment.
Combustion↗
Simulating Building Fires for Movies
Fire scenes for cinematography staged at relatively low cost in method that combines several existing techniques. Nearly realistic scenes, suitable for firefighter training, produced with little specialized equipment. Sequences of scenes set up quickly and easily, without compromising safety because model not burned. Images of fire, steam, and smoke superimposed on image of building to simulate burning of building.
Rodriguez, Ricardo C.↗
Space-based Observational Constraints for 1-D Plume Rise Models
We use a space-based plume height climatology derived from observations made by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard the NASA Terra satellite to evaluate the ability of a plume-rise model currently embedded in several atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs) to produce accurate smoke injection heights. We initialize the plume-rise model with assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System and estimated fuel moisture content at the location and time of the MISR measurements. Fire properties that drive the plume-rise model are difficult to estimate and we test the model with four estimates for active fire area and four for total heat flux, obtained using empirical data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) re radiative power (FRP) thermal anomalies available for each MISR plume. We show that the model is not able to reproduce the plume heights observed by MISR over the range of conditions studied (maximum r2 obtained in all configurations is 0.3). The model also fails to determine which plumes are in the free troposphere (according to MISR), key information needed for atmospheric models to simulate properly smoke dispersion. We conclude that embedding a plume-rise model using currently available re constraints in large-scale atmospheric studies remains a difficult proposition. However, we demonstrate the degree to which the fire dynamical heat flux (related to active fire area and sensible heat flux), and atmospheric stability structure influence plume rise, although other factors less well constrained (e.g., entrainment) may also be significant. Using atmospheric stability conditions, MODIS FRP, and MISR plume heights, we offer some constraints on the main physical factors that drive smoke plume rise. We find that smoke plumes reaching high altitudes are characterized by higher FRP and weaker atmospheric stability conditions than those at low altitude, which tend to remain confined below the BL, consistent with earlier results. We propose two simplified parameterizations for computing injection heights for fires in CTMs and discuss current challenges to representing plume injection heights in large scale atmospheric models.
Martin, Maria Val↗
BOREAS TGB-5 CO2, CH4 and CO Chamber Flux Data Over the NSA
The BOReal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study Trace Gas Biogeochemistry (BOREAS TGB-5) team collected a variety of trace gas concentration and flux measurements at several NSA sites. This data set contains carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) chamber flux measurements conducted in 1994 at upland forest sites that experienced stand-replacement fires. These measurements were acquired to understand the impact of fires on soil biogeochemistry and related changes in trace gas exchange in boreal forest soils. Relevant ancillary data, including data concerning the soil temperature, solar irradiance, and information from nearby un-burned control sites, are included to provide a basis for modeling the regional impacts of fire and climate changes on trace gas biogeochemistry. The data are provided in tabular ASCII files.
Burke, Roger↗
Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS aerosol optical depth and AeroCom multi-model simulations: implications for model constraints and emission inventories
We assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Linking Remotely Sensed Aerosol Types to Their Chemical Composition
Aerosol types measured during the Ship-Aircraft Bio-Optical Research (SABOR) experiment are related to GEOS-Chem model chemical composition. The application for this procedure to link model chemical components to aerosol type is desirable for understanding aerosol evolution over time. The Mahalanobis distance (DM) statistic is used to cluster model groupings of five chemical components (organic carbon, black carbon, sea salt, dust and sulfate) in a way analogous to the methods used by Burton et al. [2012] and Russell et al. [2014]. First, model-to-measurement evaluation is performed by collocating vertically resolved aerosol extinction from SABOR High Spectral Resolution LiDAR (HSRL) to the GEOS-Chem nested high-resolution data. Comparisons of modeled-to-measured aerosol extinction are shown to be within 35% +/- 14%. Second, the model chemical components are calculation into five variables to calculate the DM and cluster means and covariances for each HSRL-retrieved aerosol type. The layer variables from the model are aerosol optical depth (AOD) ratios of (i) sea salt and (ii) dust to total AOD, mass ratios of (iii) total carbon (i.e. sum of organic and black carbon) to the sum of total carbon and sulfate (iv) organic carbon to black carbon, and (v) the natural log of the aerosol-to-molecular extinction ratio. Third, the layer variables and at most five out of twenty SABOR flights are used to form the pre-specified clusters for calculating DM and to assign an aerosol type. After determining the pre-specified clusters, model aerosol types are produced for the entire vertically resolved GEOS-Chem nested domain over the United States and the model chemical component distributions relating to each type are recorded. Resulting aerosol types are Dust/Dusty Mix, Maritime, Smoke, Urban and Fresh Smoke (separated into 'dark' and 'light' by a threshold of the organic to black carbon ratio). Model-calculated DM not belonging to a specific type (i.e. not meeting a threshold probability) is termed an outlier and those DM values that can belong to multiple types (i.e. showing weak probability of belonging to a specific cluster) are termed as Overlap. MODIS active fires are overlaid on the model domain to qualitatively evaluate the model-predicted Smoke aerosol types.
Aerosol Types↗
Analytical modeling of intumescent coating thermal protection system in a JP-5 fuel fire environment
The thermochemical response of Coating 313 when exposed to a fuel fire environment was studied to provide a tool for predicting the reaction time. The existing Aerotherm Charring Material Thermal Response and Ablation (CMA) computer program was modified to treat swelling materials. The modified code is now designated Aerotherm Transient Response of Intumescing Materials (TRIM) code. In addition, thermophysical property data for Coating 313 were analyzed and reduced for use in the TRIM code. An input data sensitivity study was performed, and performance tests of Coating 313/steel substrate models were carried out. The end product is a reliable computational model, the TRIM code, which was thoroughly validated for Coating 313. The tasks reported include: generation of input data, development of swell model and implementation in TRIM code, sensitivity study, acquisition of experimental data, comparisons of predictions with data, and predictions with intermediate insulation.
Clark, K. J.↗
Future Arctic (Wild) Fires
Wildland fires in the boreal and Arctic are increasing in frequency and severity, with extreme fire seasons documented across the Pan-Arctic and boreal in five of the last seven years – including an early start to extreme fires in 2023.Human-caused and wildland fires above 60°N were larger sources of black carbon and methane than current modeled estimates of anthropogenic sectors like energy extraction and transportation. Further, these large boreal and Arctic fires have the potential to release large amounts of carbon dioxide and subsequent methane emissions from degraded permafrost and peat fires, as well as negatively impacting air quality thousands of miles south. By end of this century, current extreme fire years in the Arctic will likely be a normal fire year for much of Greenland, North America, Northern Europe, and Eurasia. As a new horizon in global wildland fire science, novel scientific pathways must be undertaken to improve our understanding and management of wildfires in the High Northern Latitudes – including understanding how NASA and U.S. researchers can enhance collaboration and develop near-real-time fire and smoke monitoring and modeling between North American and European ecology, fire, and climate scientists and stakeholders. Issues of inclusion, diversity, and equity are inherent to understanding fire ecology, impacts, and management in the Arctic and boreal, including centering and deferring to Indigenous and local communities when constructing best management practices.
Future↗
Detecting ecological signatures of long-term human activity across an elevational gradient in the Šumava Mountains, Central Europe
Central European mountains, including the Šumava Mountains located along the Czechia/Germany border, have a long and rich anthropogenic history. Yet, documenting prehistoric human impact in Central European mountain environments remains a challenge because of the need to disentangle climate and human-caused responses in terrestrial systems. Here, we present the first reconstructed water table depths (WTDs) from two sites, Pěkná and Blatenská slať, located in the Šumava Mountains. We compare these local WTD records with new and published pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs), plant macrofossils, geochemistry and archeological records to investigate how changes in local hydrology and human activities impacted forest succession and fire activity throughout the Holocene across an elevational gradient. Using a generalized additive model, our results suggest that changes in forest succession and fire activity have been primarily caused by climate throughout the Holocene. However, humans have been utilizing mountain environments and their resources continuously since ∼4600 cal yr BP, thus playing a secondary role in modifying forest succession to increase resources beneficial to both humans and grazers. Over the last 1000 years, we provide evidence of directly observed human-caused modifications to the landscape. These results contribute to a growing body of literature illustrating human activities and landscape modifications in Central European mountains.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model
Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Symposium on Combustion /International/, 16th, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass., August 15-20, 1976, Proceedings
Aspects of combustion technology in power systems are considered, taking into account a combustion in large boilers, the control of over-all thermal efficiency of combustion heating systems, a comparison of mathematical models of the radiative behavior of a large-scale experimental furnace, a concentric multiannular swirl burner, and the effects of water introduction on diesel engine combustion and emissions. Attention is also given to combustion and related processes in energy production from coal, spray and droplet combustion, soot formation and growth, the kinetics of elementary reactions, flame structure and chemistry, propellant ignition and combustion, fire and explosion research, mathematical modeling, high output combustion systems, turbulent flames and combustion, and ignition, optical, and electrical properties.
Source record↗
Soil carbon storage capacity of drylands under altered fire regimes
The determinants of fire-driven changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) across broad environmental gradients remains unclear, especially in global drylands. Here we combined datasets and field sampling of fire-manipulation experiments to evaluate where and why fire changes SOC and compared our statistical model to simulations from ecosystem models. Drier ecosystems experienced larger relative changes in SOC than humid ecosystems—in some cases exceeding losses from plant biomass pools—primarily explained by high fire-driven declines in tree biomass inputs in dry ecosystems. Many ecosystem models underestimated the SOC changes in drier ecosystems. Upscaling our statistical model predicted that soils in savannah–grassland regions may have gained 0.64 PgC due to net-declines in burned area over the past approximately two decades. Consequently, ongoing declines in fire frequencies have probably created an extensive carbon sink in the soils of global drylands that may have been underestimated by ecosystem models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Satellite remote sensing of landscape freeze/thaw state dynamics for complex Topography and Fire Disturbance Areas Using multi-sensor radar and SRTM digital elevation models
We characterize differences in radar-derived freeze/thaw state, examining transitions over complex terrain and landscape disturbance regimes. In areas of complex terrain, we explore freezekhaw dynamics related to elevation, slope aspect and varying landcover. In the burned regions, we explore the timing of seasonal freeze/thaw transition as related to the recovering landscape, relative to that of a nearby control site. We apply in situ biophysical measurements, including flux tower measurements to validate and interpret the remotely sensed parameters. A multi-scale analysis is performed relating high-resolution SAR backscatter and moderate resolution scatterometer measurements to assess trade-offs in spatial and temporal resolution in the remotely sensed fields.
synthetic aperture radars (SARs)↗