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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Observational Evidence of Changes in Water Vapor, Clouds, and Radiation at the ARM SGP Site

Characterizing water vapor and cloud effects on the surface radiation budget is critical for understanding the current climate because water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting potential future climate change. Several studies have shown that insolation over land declined until 1990 then increased until the present. Using 8 years of data collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) surface site, we found that the insolation increased from 1997 to 2000, but significantly decreased from 2001 to 2004, changes that exactly mirror the variation in the second-order fit of cloud fraction. Under clear-sky conditions, the rates of water vapor, insolation and downwelling longwave (LW) flux are -0.166 cm/yr, 0.48 Wm(exp -2)/yr, and -1.16 Wm(exp -2)/yr, respectively, indicating that water vapor changes are more important for LW flux than for insolation.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

GPCP↗
NASA NTRS1991

Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

Del Genio, Anthony D.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Agricultural resources investigations in northern Italy and southern France (Agreste project). Part 1: Activity performed on the Italian test-sites

The author has identified the following significant results. Some qualitative results were obtained out of the experiment of reflectance measurements under greenhouse conditions. An effort was made to correlate phenological stages, production, and radiometric measurements. It was found that the first order effect of exposure variability to sun irradiation is responsible for different rice productivity classes. Effects of rice variety and fertilization become second order, because they are completely masked by the first order effects.

Megier, J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Theoretical Studies of Microphysics of Marine Boundary-Layer Clouds

This project is aimed at better understanding the role that aerosols play in altering the properties of stratus clouds. This interaction, termed the indirect effect of aerosols on climate, is a major subject a of study since the radiative forcing involved may rival that of greenhouse gases, but may be of the opposite sign. Our goal was to create numerical models of the phenomena, test them with data, and thereby gain insight into the physical processes occurring. Below we list the papers that we have produced during this grant. We then discuss these papers.

Toon, Owen B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Water cycles in closed ecological systems: effects of atmospheric pressure

In bioregenerative life support systems that use plants to generate food and oxygen, the largest mass flux between the plants and their surrounding environment will be water. This water cycle is a consequence of the continuous change of state (evaporation-condensation) from liquid to gas through the process of transpiration and the need to transfer heat (cool) and dehumidify the plant growth chamber. Evapotranspiration rates for full plant canopies can range from ~1 to 10 L m-2 d-1 (~1 to 10 mm m-2 d-1), with the rates depending primarily on the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) between the leaves and the air inside the plant growth chamber. VPD in turn is dependent on the air temperature, leaf temperature, and current value of relative humidity (RH). Concepts for developing closed plant growth systems, such as greenhouses for Mars, have been discussed for many years and the feasibility of such systems will depend on the overall system costs and reliability. One approach for reducing system costs would be to reduce the operating pressure within the greenhouse to reduce structural mass and gas leakage. But managing plant growth environments at low pressures (e.g., controlling humidity and heat exchange) may be difficult, and the effects of low-pressure environments on plant growth and system water cycling need further study. We present experimental evidence to show that water saturation pressures in air under isothermal conditions are only slightly affected by total pressure, but the overall water flux from evaporating surfaces can increase as pressure decreases. Mathematical models describing these observations are presented, along with discussion of the importance for considering "water cycles" in closed bioregenerative life support systems.

NASA Center KSC↗
NASA NTRS2000

Analysis of the Spaceflight Effects on Growth and Development of Super Dwarf Wheat Grown on the Space Station Mir

The hypothesis being tested is that Super Dwarf wheat, Triticum aestivum L., plants in the Svet Greenhouse onboard the Russian Space Station Mir will complete a life cycle in spaceflight, providing that the environmental conditions necessary for adequate growth on Earth are supplied. Twenty six seeds of wheat were planted in each of 2 rows of 2 root compartments for a total of 104 seeds in Svet. Germination rate at 7 d was 56 and 73% on Mir and 75 and 90% in ground-based controls. Plants were grown throughout the whole cycle of ontogenesis (123 d) with samples gathered at different times to validate the morphological and reproductive stages of the plants. Young plants showed vigorous early seedling growth, with large biomass production, including the formation of 280 floral spikes. Upon return to Earth, comparative analyses showed that the number of tillers and flowers per spikelet were 63.2% and 40% greater, respectively, in Mir-grown plants than in the controls. By contrast, the stem length (52.4%), spike mass (49.2%) and length (23.1%), awn length (75.7%), number of spikelets per spike (42.8%) and number of seeds per spike (100% sterile) from Mir-grown plants were substantially less than the controls. Distribution of moisture and roots throughout the substrate was very good. All florets on Mir-grown spikes ceased development at the same stage of ontogeny. Lack of caryopses formation was attributed to male sterility occurring at different stages of staminal development. Anthers failed to dehisce and pollen grains were smaller and shriveled compared to the controls, suggesting a chronic stress had occurred in the Svet growth chamber. Recent ground-based studies indicated that ethylene, which was measured at 0.3 to 1.8 mg per kilogram in the Mir, almost certainly could have induced male sterility in the wheat plants grown on the Mir.

Levinskikh, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Filling-in of Near-infrared Solar Lines by Terrestrial Fluorescence and Other Geophysical Effects: Simulations and Space-based Observations from SCIAMACHY and GOSAT

Global mapping of terrestrial vegetation fluorescence from space has recently been accomplished with high spectral resolution (nu/nu greater than 35 000) measurements from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SAellite (GOSAT). These data are of interest because they can potentially provide global information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling. Quantifying the impact of fluorescence on the O2-A band is important as this band is used for photon pathlength characterization in cloud- and aerosol-contaminated pixels for trace-gas retrievals including CO2. Here, we examine whether fluorescence information can be derived from space using potentially lower-cost hyperspectral instrumentation, i.e., more than an order of magnitude less spectral resolution (nu/nu approximately 1600) than GOSAT, with a relatively simple algorithm. We discuss laboratory measurements of fluorescence near one of the few wide and deep solar Fraunhofer lines in the long-wave tail of the fluorescence emission region, the calcium (Ca) II line at 866 nm that is observable with a spectral resolution of approximately 0.5 nm. The filling-in of the Ca II line due to additive signals from various atmospheric and terrestrial effects, including fluorescence, is simulated. We then examine filling-in of this line using the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) satellite instrument. In order to interpret the satellite measurements, we developed a general approach to correct for various instrumental artifacts that produce false filling-in of solar lines in satellite measurements. The approach is applied to SCIAMACHY at the 866 nm Ca II line and to GOSAT at 758 and 770 nm on the shoulders of the O2-A feature where there are several strong solar Fraunhofer lines that are filled in primarily by vegetation fluorescence. Finally, we compare temporal and spatial variations of SCIAMACHY additive signals with those of GOSAT and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Although the derived additive signals from SCIAMACHY are extremely weak at 866 nm, their spatial and temporal variations are consistent with chlorophyll a fluorescence or another vegetation-related source. We also show that fillingin occurs at 866 nm over some barren areas, possibly originating from luminescent minerals in rock and soil.

vegetation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local “hot spots”, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Effects of heavy metals on the absorbance and reflectance spectra of plants

The spectral responses of plants to various concentrations of heavy metals in their rooting media are investigated in relation to the application of remote sensing methods to the detection of vegetation under stress. Absorption photometry of chloroplasts, measurements of metal and chlorophyll concentrations and reflectance spectrometry were performed on leaves of pea, sunflower and soybean plants grown under greenhouse conditions with the addition of various concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn to their rooting media and on leaves of oak trees growing naturally in an area of a copper-arsenic mineralization. Under laboratory conditions, the most general effect observed was growth inhibition and ultimately death, with pea plants also exhibiting changes of chlorophyll a/ chlorophyll b ratios with Cd and Cu and reflectance increases in the visible and decreases in the infrared. Although results for other species indicate that reflectance effects are dependent on species, correlations between reflectance and metal exposure is confirmed by the field investigations. It is concluded that a remote sensing system would be improved by the inclusion of bands around 1.65 and 2.20 microns to detect soil mineralization from plant spectra.

Horler, D. N. H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Large Aperture Fabry-Perot Tunable Filter Based On Micro Opto Electromechanical Systems Technology

A research and development effort sponsored by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center (GSFC) is focused on applying Micro Opto Electromechanical Systems (MOEMS) technology to create a miniature Fabry-Perot tunable etalon for space and ground-based near infrared imaging spectrometer applications. Unlike previous devices developed for small-aperture telecommunications systems, the GSFC research is directed toward a novel 12 - 40 mm aperture for astrophysical studies, including emission line imaging of galaxies and nebulae, and multi-spectral redshift surveys in the 1.1 - 2.3 micron wavelength region. The MOEMS design features integrated electrostatic scanning of the 11-micron optical gap, and capacitance micrometry for closed loop control of parallelism within a 10-nm tolerance. The low thermal mass and inertia inherent in MOEMS devices allows for rapid cooling to the proposed 30 K operating temperature, and high frequency response. Achieving the proposed 6-nm aperture flatness (with an effective finesse of 50) represents the primary technical challenge in the current 12-mm prototype.

Greenhouse, Matt↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improved Reference Sampling and Subtraction: A Technique for Reducing the Read Noise of Near-Infrared Detector Systems

Near-infrared array detectors, like the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) NIRSpec's Teledyne's H2RGs, often provide reference pixels and a reference output. These are used to remove correlated noise. Improved reference sampling and subtraction (IRS(exp 2)) is a statistical technique for using this reference information optimally in a leastsquares sense. Compared with the traditional H2RG readout, IRS(exp 2) uses a different clocking pattern to interleave many more reference pixels into the data than is otherwise possible. Compared with standard reference correction techniques, IRS(exp 2) subtracts the reference pixels and reference output using a statistically optimized set of frequency dependent weights. The benefits include somewhat lower noise variance and much less obvious correlated noise. NIRSpec's IRS(exp 2) images are cosmetically clean, with less 1/f banding than in traditional data from the same system. This article describes the IRS(exp 2) clocking pattern and presents the equations needed to use IRS(exp 2) in systems other than NIRSpec. For NIRSpec, applying these equations is already an option in the calibration pipeline. As an aid to instrument builders, we provide our prototype IRS(exp 2) calibration software and sample JWST NIRSpec data. The same techniques are applicable to other detector systems, including those based on Teledyne's H4RG arrays. The H4RG's interleaved reference pixel readout mode is effectively one IRS(exp 2) pattern.

Methods-statistical↗
NASA NTRS1993

Earth observing scanning polarimeter

Climate forcing by tropospheric aerosols is receiving increased attention because of the realization that the climate effects may be large, while our knowledge of global aerosol characteristics and temporal changes is very poor. Tropospheric aerosols cause a direct radiative forcing due simply to their scattering and absorption of solar radiation, as well as an indirect effect as cloud condensation nuclei which can modify the shortwave reflectivity of clouds. Sulfate aerosols tend to increase planetary albedo through both the direct and indirect effects; a cooling due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols has been estimated of order 1 W/sq m, noting that this is similar in magnitude to the present anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming. Other aerosols, including those from biomass burning and wind-blown desert dust are also of potential climatic importance. At present, the only global monitoring of tropospheric aerosols is a NOAA operational product, aerosol optical thickness, obtained using channel-1 (0.58-0.68 mu m) radiances from the AVHRR. With this single channel radiance data, one must use an approach which is based on the inferred excess of reflected radiance owing to scattering by the aerosols over that expected from theoretical calculations. This approach is suited only for situations where the surface has a low albedo that is well known a priori. Thus, the NOAA operational product is restricted to coverage over the ocean at AVHRR scan angles well away from sun glint, and aerosol changes are subject to confusion with changes caused by either optically thin or subpixel clouds. Because optically thin aerosols have only a small effect on the radiance, accurate measurements for optical thickness less than 0.1 (which is a typical background level) are precluded. Moreover, some of the largest and most important aerosol changes are expected over land. The Earth Observing Scanning Polarimeter (EOSP) instrument, based upon design heritage and analysis techniques developed for planetary missions, will retrieve tropospheric aerosol characteristics from measurements of multispectral radiance and polarization. Moreover, the same radiance and polarization measurements will also provide very precise information on cloud properties and maps of surface characteristics for cloud-free regions. These capabilities also give EOSP the unique ability to discriminate aerosol from clouds and surface.

Travis, Larry↗
NASA NTRS1977

The effect of soil water deficit on the reflectance of conifer seedling canopies

The effects of soil water deficit on spruce and pine seedling canopy reflectance, needle reflectance and transmittance, and canopy density were measured in a greenhouse with a diffuse source of radiant flux. A potential for early or pre-visual detection of plant water stress was not supported by these measurements made at visible, and reflected infrared wavelengths to 1950 nm. Needles were found to transmit approximately thirty percent of the radiant flux incident on them at 780 nm, ten percent at 700 nm, and were found to be opaque at 450, 550, 600 and 650 nm.

Fox, L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Responses of Compound Daytime and Nighttime Warm-Dry and Warm-H Events to Individual Anthropogenic Forcings

Daytime heat is often associated with reduced soil moisture and cloud cover, while nighttime heat is connected to high humidity and increased cloud cover. Due to these differing mechanisms, compound daytime and nighttime heat events may respond differently to major anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, land-use and land-cover change). Here, we use GISS ModelE2.1-G historical single-forcing runs from 1955 to 2014 to examine how individual anthropogenic forcings affect compound heat events—specifically warm daytime and nighttime temperatures compounded with dry precipitation or high humidity conditions. We show that greenhouse gases alone amplify the natural frequency of warm-dry events by 1.5–5 times and warm-humid events by 2–9 times in tropical and extratropical latitudes. Conversely, aerosols and land-use/land-cover change reduce the frequency of these events, resulting in more modest increases and in some regions, declines, in the historical 'all-forcings' scenario. Individually, aerosol effects are stronger and more widespread compared to land-use, oftentimes reducing the natural frequency of these events by 60%–100%. The responses of these compound events are primarily driven by changes in daytime and nighttime temperatures through large-scale warming via greenhouse gases and cooling from aerosols and land-use/land-cover change. However, changes in warm-dry events are amplified in regions with concurrent precipitation declines (e.g. Central America, Mediterranean regions) and warm-humid events are amplified by global concurrent humidity increases. Additionally, we find differences between daytime and nighttime compound responses in the historical experiment that can be traced back to the individual forcings. In particular, aerosols produce a greater cooling effect on daytime relative to nighttime temperatures, which notably results in a historical reduction of Northern Hemisphere daytime warm-dry events relative to natural conditions. Our analysis provides a more comprehensive understanding of the significant impacts of different anthropogenic climate forcings on daytime and nighttime warm-dry and warm-humid events, informing future risk and impact assessments.

Anthropogenic forcings↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Influence of Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on Historical Changes in Aerosol-Climate Interactions

Dry deposition removes short-lived climate forcers and their precursors from the atmosphere. The aerosol dry deposition schemes in many global climate models have been untouched for decades. Previous work hints that aerosol dry deposition is an uncertainty with respect to aerosol impacts on climate change. Here we demonstrate the impact of a more mechanistic aerosol dry deposition parameterization on the historical aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using the NASA GISS global chemistry-climate model. We investigate two aerosol configurations – a “bulk” mass-based scheme and a modal scheme that more explicitly represents internal mixing and microphysics – of the global model. Both configurations show ~20% larger historical increases in non-dust aerosols globally with more mechanistic dry deposition. Changes to particle dry deposition, which are strongly a function of particle diameter, have a greater influence on the cloud albedo effect (up to 0.1 W m-2) when aerosols are more explicitly resolved in the modal scheme. On the other hand, impacts on the direct aerosol effect are small for both model configurations. In both aerosol configurations, the global climate effects are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the strength of the uptake to dry deposition as suggested by (limited) measurements. In general, the low number of aerosol flux measurements and strong variability across existing observations challenge confidence in our understanding of dry depositional processes and changes with environmental conditions. Nonetheless, our work suggests that changes in dry deposition may be important for accurately estimating increases in aerosol abundances over the historical period, which is key for correct inferences about how cooling from aerosols has offset warming from greenhouse gases.

Dry deposition↗
NASA NTRS2014

CMIP5 Historical Simulations (1850-2012) with GISS ModelE2

Observations of climate change during the CMIP5 extended historical period (1850-2012) are compared to trends simulated by six versions of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 Earth System Model. The six models are constructed from three versions of the ModelE2 atmospheric general circulation model, distinguished by their treatment of atmospheric composition and the aerosol indirect effect, combined with two ocean general circulation models, HYCOM and Russell. Forcings that perturb the model climate during the historical period are described. Five-member ensemble averages from each of the six versions of ModelE2 simulate trends of surface air temperature, atmospheric temperature, sea ice and ocean heat content that are in general agreement with observed trends, although simulated warming is slightly excessive within the past decade. Only simulations that include increasing concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases match the warming observed during the twentieth century. Differences in twentieth-century warming among the six model versions can be attributed to differences in climate sensitivity, aerosol and ozone forcing, and heat uptake by the deep ocean. Coupled models with HYCOM export less heat to the deep ocean, associated with reduced surface warming in regions of deepwater formation, but greater warming elsewhere at high latitudes along with reduced sea ice. All ensembles show twentieth-century annular trends toward reduced surface pressure at southern high latitudes and a poleward shift of the midlatitude westerlies, consistent with observations.

ocean heat content↗