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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗
DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic economic and environmental impact assessment of a cyanobacteria-based biorefinery

Microbial based biofuels represent a potential promising solution as an environmentally favorable transportation fuel. Cyanobacteria have many of the same advantages as microalgae: ability for rapid growth in otherwise non-arable regions, suitability for genetic engineering, and simple nutritional needs. Additionally, cyanobacteria can be engineered to secrete valuable co-products that can be harvested independent from the produced biomass. However, little work has been done to identify the processes and the economic and environmental impacts associated with a large-scale cyanobacteria-to-fuels facility. The present study is a concurrent techno-economic and life cycle assessment of a facility that generates fuels and methyl laurate, an oleochemical, from the cyanobacterial species Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Here, the biorefinery model includes all aspects of cultivation, separation of the secreted methyl laurate, biomass harvesting and fuel processing via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the dewatered biomass. The assessments leverage Monte Carlo analysis (MCA) to address uncertainty and variability inherent in the most significant input parameters, replacing them with probabilistic functions. For the facility configuration producing both fuels and the oleochemical co-product, the MCA average minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) is $\$2.47$ per decimeter (dm 3 ) or $\$9.34$ per gallon of gasoline equivalent (gge) with the corresponding average global warming potential determined to be 118 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . The case producing only fuels results in an MCA average MFSP of $\$2.01$-(dm 3 ) -1 ($\$7.60$-gge -1 ) and an average environmental impact of 100 g CO 2 -eq-MJ -1 . These results are compared to static optimistic and conservative scenario analysis estimates, illustrating the over- and under-estimation of outcomes associated with non-stochastic methods. Suggested facility improvements include increases in pond productivity of both the biomass and methyl laurate oil production, as well as improvements to carbon utilization and bio-crude yield from HTL processing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

ASP (Adaptive Splines for Prediction) [SWR-22-66]

This software package provides functionality to fit piecewise cubic splines to model the relationship between a univariate X (independent variable) and a univariate Y (dependent variable). The output is akin to linear regression but has higher "capacity" in that it can learn more complicated relationships despite leveraging only a single predictor. It thus can learn very reasonable relationships between X and Y with minimal effort. The canonical intended use case is for predicting electric demand (Y) from temperature (X). There can be complicated, non-linear relationships between these two variables, but these can be reasonably approximated by the sum of: 1) an "aggregate" relationship between daily average temperature and daily average demand, and 2) intra-day patterns represented as hourly offsets from the daily average load. The spline functionality is used for learning a robust "aggregate" relationship without the inconvenience of manual feature engineering while still ensuring robust results. The model fitting workhorse is R's built-in smooth.spline. This package provides a suite of options for controlling how smooth.spline fits a spline to the data. In particular, it is designed to return a model with a single critical point (i.e., a single location along the domain/support where the first derivative is zero). This is to ensure that predicted changes in electric demand are always positive as temperatures become more extreme. This helps to prevent overfitting, particularly when the input data has few observations or has significant uncertainty from other sources.

Murphy, Sinnott↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2 Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2- (salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics. Thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical properties of individual components of the engineered and natural system were chosen for relevance by participating teams. The salt reference case system was characterized using data and measurements collected at relevant underground research laboratories (URLs), field sites, and simulation results from teams with specialized modelling capability. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation. No single contributed model includes full-fidelity representation of all the features, events, and processes (FEPs) detailed in the task specification, but almost all features and processes are represented in at least one model. Despite differences in the modelling strategies developed by participating teams, all models indicate that salt compaction and radionuclide diffusion are key processes in the repository, and for the FEPs and model scenario considered, little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000 year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. The models tend to be more similar further from waste and at later time. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the task specification, some of which are chosen simplifications to reduce complexity, and some are restrictions imposed by the modelling tools. A second round of this task has been accepted for DECOVALEX-2027 in conjunction with Task F1 on crystalline PA modelling. The future round includes waste package heating, improved modelling of salt creep closure, additional comparisons of coupled-process sub-models, and the impact of repository engineering design on radionuclide migration in the repository. Participants will also propose and finalize a set of uncertain inputs for the reference case simulations, propagate these uncertainties in a set of realizations, and conduct sensitivity analyses on the simulation results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization and stabilization of Fermilab Booster using hybrid Bayesian/RL framework

PIPII project will raise Fermilab Booster intensity and ramp rate. Beam losses will limit average power and are hard to simulate. Presently, Booster uses operator-guided empirical tuning. This task is challenging due to high dimensionality, multiple objectives, critical safety constraints, and drifts. We developed a synergistic suite of Bayesian optimization (BO) and reinforcement learning (RL) tools to optimize and stabilize beam losses. First, active learning was used to build a rough model. Data was collected parasitically using two novel safety constraint types – nonlinear input space restrictions (based on optics model), and uncertainty constraints (to stop bad steps/beam aborts). We then applied online multi-objective BO with scalarized objectives and fitting to improve/rebalance losses, increasing safety margins by 25%. Using BO model as a safety veto, we tried several on/off-policy RL agents for long term stabilization; SAC had best performance. We found that adding contextual (state) information further improved performance, eventually integrating key knobs like linac phase and temperature into the parameter space. Long term testing is ongoing to enable operational use.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
NASA NTRS1979

SIRIO: One year of station keeping

The strategy followed in maintaining the station point and the results achieved are described. The method used for orbit determination is presented. Azimuth and elevation data from SHF antennas were used as input for the determination. An estimation of the uncertainty of the orbit was given and a comparison was made between determinations performed using the method here described and determinations performed using VHF ranging data. Also, the difference in using data from a single SHF station or two stations was shown. In the area of attitude determination, a study was carried out for predicting the spacecraft spin axis precession. The model used was explained and then the agreement between predicted and measured attitude outlined.

Palutan, F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A critical analysis of the ultraviolet temperature scale of the helium-dominated DB and DBV white dwarfs

The temperatures of the hottest of the DB and of some of the variable DBV white dwarfs have been reanalyzed, using a new helium-rich model atmosphere grid and archival IUE data. The grid covers variations in the effective temperature, surface gravity, and trace hydrogen abundance. Significantly lower temperatures than those found by earlier investigations are found. This has influence on the issue of which mixing-length theory is the best one for treatment of convection in DB white dwarfs. The prototype of the DBV stars, GD 358, is given particular attention in view of the recently reported HE II 1640-A line. The sensitivity of the new results to input physics is analyzed. It is found that uncertainties in Stark broadening parameters, convective efficiency, and equation of state and the assumptions of a fixed gravity (log g = 8) and a negligible abundance of hydrogen can at most give an error in the effective temperature of 400 K for a typical DB star. The uncertainty on the absolute calibration of the IUE cameras and the effect of small interstellar reddening dominate the error analysis.

Thejll, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1992

Robust control of flexible space vehicles with minimum structural excitation: On-off pulse control of flexible space vehicles

Both feedback and feedforward control approaches for uncertain dynamical systems (in particular, with uncertainty in structural mode frequency) are investigated. The control objective is to achieve a fast settling time (high performance) and robustness (insensitivity) to plant uncertainty. Preshaping of an ideal, time optimal control input using a tapped-delay filter is shown to provide a fast settling time with robust performance. A robust, non-minimum-phase feedback controller is synthesized with particular emphasis on its proper implementation for a non-zero set-point control problem. It is shown that a properly designed, feedback controller performs well, as compared with a time optimal open loop controller with special preshaping for performance robustness. Also included are two separate papers by the same authors on this subject.

Wie, Bong↗
NASA NTRS1992

Helium diffusion in the sun

We calculate improved standard solar models using the new Livermore (OPAL) opacity tables, an accurate (exportable) nuclear energy generation routine which takes account of recent measurements and analyses, and the recent Anders-Grevesse determination of heavy element abundances. We also evaluate directly the effect of the diffusion of helium with respect to hydrogen on the calculated neutrino fluxes, on the primordial solar helium abundance, and on the depth of the convective zone. Helium diffusion increases the predicted event rates by about 0.8 SNU, or 11 percent of the total rate, in the chlorine solar neutrino experiment, by about 3.5 SNU, or 3 percent, in the gallium solar neutrino experiments, and by about 12 percent in the Kamiokande and SNO solar neutrino experiments. The best standard solar model including helium diffusion and the most accurate nuclear parameters, element abundances, and radiative opacity predicts a value of 8.0 SNU +/- 3.0 SNU for the C1-37 experiment and 132 +21/-17 SNU for the Ga - 71 experiment, where the uncertainties include 3 sigma errors for all measured input parameters.

Bahcall, J. N.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Remote sounding of surface radiative fluxes in cirrus cloudy conditions

It has been long recognized that radiation and radiation perturbations play a critical role in the climate system. Surface radiative fluxes are useful parameters for monitoring global change, for understanding of the effects of clouds on the radiation field, and for improving parameterization of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. Monitoring of the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere has been one of the prime satellite programs for the last 30 years. However, monitoring radiative fluxes at the surface over the globe from space cannot be performed in a direct way at the present time. In particular, since clouds are the prime regulators of the radiative fluxes, uncertainties in the retrieved cloud parameters, which are inputs to radiative transfer models, can introduce significant errors in the computed radiative fluxes. Thus, remote sounding of surface radiative fluxes in cloudy conditions requires the development of both satellite cloud retrieval scheme and radiation models. In this paper, we present results of computed surface radiative fluxes in cirrus cloudy conditions using a cirrus cloud retrieval scheme and a detailed radiative transfer program. Comparisons have been made between the computed surface radiative fluxes and the ground-based radiometer measurements obtained during FIRE-II-IFO, which was carried out near Coffeyville, Kansas, during November and December, 1991.

Ou, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Characterization of Fluorescent Polystyrene Microspheres for Advanced Flow Diagnostics

Fluorescent dye-doped polystyrene latex microspheres (PSLs) are being developed for velocimetry and scalar measurements in variable property flows. Two organic dyes, Rhodamine B (RhB) and dichlorofluorescence (DCF), are examined to assess laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) properties for flow imaging applications and single-shot temperature measurements. A major interest in the current research is the application of safe dyes, thus DCF is of particular interest, while RhB is used as a benchmark. Success is demonstrated for single-point laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and also imaging fluorescence, excited via a continuous wave 2 W laser beam, for exposures down to 10 ms. In contrast, when exciting with a pulsed Nd:YAG laser at 200 mJ/pulse, no fluorescence was detected, even when integrating tens of pulses. We show that this is due to saturation of the LIF signal at relatively low excitation intensities, 4-5 orders of magnitude lower than the pulsed laser intensity. A two-band LIF technique is applied in a heated jet, indicating that the technique effectively removes interfering inputs such as particle diameter variation. Temperature measurement uncertainties are estimated based upon the variance measured for the two-band LIF intensity ratio and the achievable dye temperature sensitivity, indicating that particles developed to date may provide about +/-12.5 C precision, while future improvements in dye temperature sensitivity and signal quality may enable single-shot temperature measurements with sub-degree precision.

Maisto, Pietro M. F.↗
NASA NTRS2015

M-MRAC for SPHERES

This paper presents application of the modified reference model MRAC (M-MRAC) method to control the relative position and orientation of a cluster of satellites known collectively as the Synchronized Position Hold, Engage, Reorient Experimental Satellites (SPHERES). The approach uses fast estimation algorithms to achieve guaranteed tracking of reference commands for both input and output signals in the presence of uncertainties in mass and inertia data and external disturbances. The tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper selection of the design parameters in the identification model. The generated control signals have acceptable magnitudes and exhibit no oscillations. The benefits of the method are demonstrated in numerical simulations.

Relative motion↗
NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)

Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.

GGCMI↗
NASA NTRS2022

Regression Bias in using Solar Wind Measurements

Simultaneous solar wind measurements from the solar wind monitors, WIND and ACE, differ due to the spatial and temporal structure of the solar wind. Correlation studies that use these measurements as input may infer an incorrect correlation due to uncertainties arising from this spatial and temporal structure, especially at extreme and rare solar wind values. In particular, regression analysis will lead to a regression function whose slope is biased towards the mean value of the measurement parameter. This article demonstrates this regression bias by comparing simultaneous ACE and WIND solar wind measurements. A non-linear regression analysis between them leads to a perception of underestimation of extreme values of one measurement on average over the other. Using numerical experiments, we show that popular regression analysis techniques such as linear least-squares, orthogonal least-squares, and non-linear regression are not immune to this bias. Hence while using solar wind parameters as an independent variable in a correlation or regression analysis, random uncertainty in the independent variable can create unintended biases in the response of the dependent variable. More generally, the regression to the mean effect can impact both event-based, statistical studies of magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing.

magnetosphere↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Constellation's best estimate alternate source term methodology

Safety analyses for a nuclear power plants need to consider postulated accidents that results in a risk of accidental release of radiation. The regulations require plant specific safety analysis reports to include an evaluation of the requirements of 10CFR50.67. Such a safety analysis report mandates limits such that calculated radiological consequences at certain locations do not exceed established limits in 10CFR50.67 following a postulated release of radioactivity. Analyses should demonstrate, with reasonable assurance, that these prescribed limits are complied with. Conventional methodologies utilize conservative approaches to address lack of uncertainty quantification in the utilized approaches, methods, and/or inputs. These built-in excess conservatisms often result in with compounding effects and hence overly conservative results in the estimated radiological consequences, which leads to inaccurate margin evaluation for operation and accident mitigation. Therefore, evaluating accurate dose consequences is needed for both operational and safety reasons. This paper illustrates the use of the best estimate source term (BEAST) methodology to the case of the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) dose analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Method Development and Implementation for Characterizing Uncertainties in Tank Leak Volumes for Composite Analysis.

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to provide a summary of methodology, inputs, assumptions, and results of a Special Analysis (SA) titled “Method Development and Implementation for Characterizing Uncertainties in Tank Leak Volumes for the Updated Composite Analysis.” This SA is one of the three SAs conducted in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 for the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site (DOE/RL-2019-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020)), and it is performed following the Unreviewed Composite Analysis Question Evaluation procedure, UCAQ-24-01-E (UCAQ-24-01-E, Rev. 0).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF MULTI-ZONE BUILDING AND HVAC SYSTEM MODELS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This study implemented a framework of empirical validation of building energy models under uncertainty to a set of controlled experiments that aim to validate multi-zone building and HVAC system models. Energy models were created through iterative acquisitions of information and data and uses measurement data from various types of sensors as both inputs and as observations to validate predictions. Experimental and modeling uncertainties were quantified and propagated accordingly, and probabilistic accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the agreement between model predictions and observations under uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential uncertainties that will be prioritized to be addressed in the next steps. Current results of two cooling tests show an overall good agreement between predictions and observations on a set of HVAC system outputs despite considerable and influential uncertainty in DX cooling coil COP. Agreements on zone-level responses vary notably among individual rooms, likely because of significant uncertainties in room radiation heat gain and system supply air.

Li, Qi↗