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Chapter 17: Residential Behavior Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures, September 2011 - August 2020

This document has been updated in August 2020. This document was developed for the U.S. Department of Energy Uniform Methods Project (UMP). The UMP provides model protocols for determining energy and demand savings that result from specific energy-efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The protocols are updated on an as-needed basis. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions,evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation. To learn more about the UMP, visit the website, https://energy.gov/eere/about-us/ump-home, or download the UMP introduction document at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68557.pdf.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tailoring ductile-phase toughened tungsten hierarchical microstructures for plasma-facing materials

Biological materials, such as bones, nacre, etc., have been found to show attractive and unique combinations of stiffness, strength and fracture toughness. Research has been conducted in various engineering areas to mimic the naturally hierarchical microstructures or nanostructures of these materials to produce materials with optimum stiffness, high strength and fracture toughness for their intended structural applications. In the same objective, this work applies a multiscale microstructural approach recently developed to investigate the deformation and fracture behavior of ductile phase toughened tungsten (W) materials such as tungsten-nickel/iron (W-Ni/Fe) composites that possess lamellar-like and hierarchical “brick-and-mortar” (BAM) microstructures. First, the approach is used to simulate tensile loading of W-Ni/Fe specimens cut out from hot-rolled W-Ni/Fe plates which possess lamellar-like microstructures. The finite element model of the gage section of the specimen consists of a W-Ni/Fe dual-phase microstructural domain in which the constitutive behaviors of W and Ni/Fe phases are described by an elastic-plastic damage model. The predicted material stress-strain response and crack pattern development as a function of loading are then compared to the corresponding experimental results to determine the constitutive model parameters for W and Ni/Fe. Subsequently, the model parameters are used to analyze W-Ni/Fe BAM microstructures that are artificially created to investigate the effects of microstructural features and morphologies on the composite stress-strain response, damage, and fracture patterns. The modeling shows that regular BAM microstructures that experience bridging mechanism combined with crack penetration across W-phase regions exhibit significantly higher strengths than the rather random lamellar-like microstructures. More significantly, however adjusting the brick’s length-to-height ratio, the BAM microstructure can be designed to allow a more distributed damage zone which leads to increased strength, ductility and fracture energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Polyubiquitin ligand-induced phase transitions are optimized by spacing between ubiquitin units

Biomolecular condensates form via multivalent interactions among key macromolecules and are regulated through ligand binding and/or posttranslational modifications. One such modification is ubiquitination, the covalent addition of ubiquitin (Ub) or polyubiquitin chains to target macromolecules. Specific interactions between polyubiquitin chains and partner proteins, including hHR23B, NEMO, and UBQLN2, regulate condensate assembly or disassembly. Here, we used a library of designed polyubiquitin hubs and UBQLN2 as model systems for determining the driving forces of ligand-mediated phase transitions. Perturbations to either the UBQLN2-binding surface of Ub or the spacing between Ub units reduce the ability of hubs to modulate UBQLN2 phase behavior. By developing an analytical model based on polyphasic linkage principles that accurately described the effects of different hubs on UBQLN2 phase separation, we determined that introduction of Ub to UBQLN2 condensates incurs a significant inclusion energetic penalty. This penalty antagonizes the ability of polyUb hubs to scaffold multiple UBQLN2 molecules and cooperatively amplify phase separation. The extent to which polyubiquitin hubs promote UBQLN2 phase separation is encoded in the spacings between Ub units. This spacing is modulated by chains of different linkages and designed chains of different architectures, thus illustrating how the ubiquitin code regulates functionality via the emergent properties of the condensate. The spacing in naturally occurring linear polyubiquitin chains is already optimized to promote phase separation with UBQLN2. We expect our findings to extend to other condensates, emphasizing the importance of ligand properties, including concentration, valency, affinity, and spacing between binding sites in studies and designs of condensates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian inference for plasmonic nanometrology

Here, we introduce a Bayesian method for the characterization of plasmonic nanoparticles, which is applicable to both near- and far-field problems. Designed to combine data generated from any photon-plasmon interaction experiment with physically motivated theoretical models, our approach leverages state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques and returns parameter estimates on nanometric scales. Simulated spectral data sets, describing resonant scattering of photons from ellipsoidal and toroidal nanoparticles, are explored as concrete examples of our approach, with the resulting Bayesian estimates showing excellent agreement with the ground truth, even under conditions of high statistical noise. By incorporating Bayes factors into the method as well, we reveal how model selection can determine which one of competing geometric shapes better explains the observed data. Our comprehensive nanometrology procedure can be tailored to a variety of light-particle interaction models, and its reliance on Bayesian inference furnishes automatic uncertainty quantification. In addition to applicability to a host of plasmonic configurations such as nanoparticle dimers, trimers, and array studies, it is proposed that the presented analysis can be extended to the quantum regime, where nonclassical photon statistics may provide additional insight for inference of scatterer properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fast permeability measurement for tight reservoir cores using only initial data of the one chamber pressure pulse decay test

Here, in this study, a mathematical model for fast determination of the permeabilities of tight rocks using measurements taken from the initial period of the One Chamber Pressure Pulse Decay (OC-PPD) test is presented. The model applies to measurements taken both before and after the pressure pulse front has reached the downstream end of the specimen. The analytical solutions for the pressure decay in the upstream chamber are derived based on a parabolic arc approximation of pore pressure distribution along the test specimen. This approximation allows converting the initial–boundary value problem of fluid diffusion in the specimen, governed by partial differential equations, to a system of ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved by explicit formulae. Thus, an explicit formula for the pressure decay rate is obtained, which enables inverse analysis of the initial experimental data to estimate the rock permeability. The proposed method expedites the pulse decay test as it does not require the system to reach equilibrium. The method is validated with three sets of experimental data of the OC-PPD test using helium as the diffusing fluid, for which the relative error of the permeability is found to be less than 6%. This method is particularly useful if the equilibrium time of the pulse decay test for rock specimens with permeabilities in the range of nano-Darcy takes hours or days.

early-time solution↗

Assimilation of Multiscale Data into Multifidelity Biogeochemical Models (Final Report)

Quantitative predictions of subsurface processes rely on computational models that capture, with different degrees of fidelity, complex interactions between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Molecular- and pore-scale models provide a high-fidelity representation of these processes but are impractical at the field scale. Reduced complexity (e.g., field-scale or data-driven) models sacrifice some degree of fidelity in favor of computational efficiency. Uncertainty and assimilation of data into model predictions, pose a question of model selection: Given a significant difference in computational cost, can a lower-fidelity model be preferable to its higher-fidelity counterpart? Since a predictive model must be computable in reasonable time it has to operate at the field scale, with molecular- and pore-scale data (obtained either from simulations or measurements) determining both the model's structure and parameters. Availability of such multi-resolution data raises a question hitherto undressed in hydrogeology: Can a coarse model dynamically ``learn'' its own structure (e.g., adjust the reaction pathways in its transport module) as more fine-scale data become available during simulations? Our results in multifidelity simulations, data assimilation, and machine learning led us to hypothesize that the answer to these questions is ``yes''. The overarching goal of this project was to confirm this hypothesis by developing scalable, computationally efficient tools for assimilation of data into multiscale models, in which fine-scale data and simulations dynamically inform and autonomously modify coarse-scale models. Our research led to nine manuscripts, three of which have been published and the other six are currently under review.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Climate lags and genetics determine phenology in quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides )

Spatiotemporal patterns of phenology may be affected by mosaics of environmental and genetic variation. Environmental drivers may have temporally lagged impacts, but patterns and mechanisms remain poorly known. Here, we combine multiple genomic, remotely sensed, and physically modeled datasets to determine the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of canopy phenology in quaking aspen, a widespread clonal dioecious tree species with diploid and triploid cytotypes. We show that over 391 km 2 of southwestern Colorado: greenup date, greendown date, and growing season length vary by weeks and differ across sexes, cytotypes, and genotypes; phenology has high phenotypic plasticity and heritabilities of 31–61% (interquartile range); and snowmelt date, soil moisture, and air temperature predict phenology, at temporal lags of up to 3 yr. Our study shows that lagged environmental effects are needed to explain phenological variation and that the effect of cytotype on phenology is obscured by its correlation with topography. Phenological patterns are consistent with responses to multiyear accumulation of carbon deficit or hydraulic damage.

carbon allocation↗

Putting AlphaFold models to work with phenix.process_predicted_model and ISOLDE

AlphaFold has recently become an important tool in providing models for experimental structure determination by X-ray crystallography and cryo-EM. Large parts of the predicted models typically approach the accuracy of experimentally determined structures, although there are frequently local errors and errors in the relative orientations of domains. Importantly, residues in the model of a protein predicted by AlphaFold are tagged with a predicted local distance difference test score, informing users about which regions of the structure are predicted with less confidence. AlphaFold also produces a predicted aligned error matrix indicating its confidence in the relative positions of each pair of residues in the predicted model. The phenix.process_predicted_model tool downweights or removes low-confidence residues and can break a model into confidently predicted domains in preparation for molecular replacement or cryo-EM docking. These confidence metrics are further used in ISOLDE to weight torsion and atom–atom distance restraints, allowing the complete AlphaFold model to be interactively rearranged to match the docked fragments and reducing the need for the rebuilding of connecting regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb -1 , collected in 2017–2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb -1 , collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Momentary Cessation: Improving Dynamic Performance and Modeling of Utility-Scale Inverter Based Resources During Grid Disturbances

Sandia National Laboratories worked with NERC staff to provide stakeholder guidance in responding to a May 2018 NERC alert regarding dynamic performance and modeling issues for utility-scale inverter-based resources. The NERC alert resulted from event analyses for grid disturbances that occurred in southern California in August 2016 and October 2017. Those disturbances revealed the use of momentary cessation of transmission connected inverter-based generation- a short time period when they ceased to inject current into the grid, counter to desired transmission operation. The event analyses concluded that, in many cases, the Western Interconnection system models used to determine planning and operating criteria do not reflect the actual behavior of solar plants, resulting in overly optimistic planning assessments and substandard operational responses. This technical report summarizes the gaps between the models and actual performance that were observed at those times, and the guidance that Sandia and NERC provided to owners of solar PV power plants, transmission planners, transmission operators and planning/reliability coordinators to modify existing models to reflect that actual performance

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning the spectral function of a hole in a quantum antiferromagnet

Understanding charge motion in a background of interacting quantum spins is a fundamental problem in quantum many-body physics. The most extensively studied model for this problem is the so-called t-t'-t''-J model, where the determination of the parameter t' in the context of cuprate superconductors is challenging. Here we present a theoretical study of the spectral functions of a mobile hole in the t-t'-t''-J model using two machine-learning techniques: K-nearest neighbor regression (KNN) and a feed-forward neural network (FFNN). We employ the self-consistent Born approximation to generate a dataset of about 1.3 x 10 5 spectral functions. Here we show that, for the forward problem, both methods allow for the accurate and efficient prediction of spectral functions, allowing, e.g., rapid searches through parameter space. Furthermore, we find that for the inverse problem (inferring Hamiltonian parameters from spectra), the FFNN can, but the KNN cannot, accurately predict the model parameters using merely the density of states. Our results suggest that it may be possible to use deep-learning methods to predict materials parameters from experimentally measured spectral functions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Microstructure Scale Lithium-Ion Battery Modeling, Part IV: The Representativity of Microstructure Parameters and Electrochemical Response

Lithium-ion battery electrochemical models require an accurate description of the electrodes microstructures to be predictive, that can be achieved through nanoscale imaging. Such observations are however limited by their field of view (FOV), as they provide only a subset of the whole electrode volume that does not necessarily represent the whole electrode microstructure heterogeneity, and therefore can bias the analysis. A representativity analysis has been performed on the microstructure parameters and, in a novel way, on the full cell electrochemical response to evaluate the predictions representativeness, and thus relevance, of a microstructure scale electrochemical model. The microstructure parameter deviation propagations to the electrochemical response have been quantified for different charge rates. This defines a threshold for the microstructure parameters FOV for a desired maximum deviation of the electrochemical response. Electrochemical model shows cell representative section areas are increasing with C-rate, due to higher in-plane heterogeneities, indicating larger FOVs are required specifically for fast charge modeling. Representativity analysis determines a cell FOV of 144.4 × 154.4 μm 2 is large enough to establish a convergence on the representative section areas for low-intermediate C-rate (≤2.5 C), therefore positively concludes on the model representativeness for these rates, but is not large enough to conclude for higher rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Jackson County Community Solar Modeling Results [Slides]

Jackson County, via the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) requested support on the topic of Community Solar in their area. NREL completed a technical and financial modeling exercise to determine the potential for developing community solar in the region. The analysis performed determined that the current policy and economic environment, in large part due to Illinois's Solar For All program, is advantageous to the deployment and growth of community solar in Illinois. Across all 6 scenarios modeled, including current minimum and maximum financial incentives, the economics yielded positive net present values for both the project owner and its subscribers. The analysis shown in this presentation is only one of the first steps in deploying community solar and suggests Jackson County should pursue next steps. Such actions could include refining project economics, partnering with local utilities, policy makers, and developers to identify potential projects and outreach opportunities, and educating and engaging community members.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Effect of Physically Based Ice Radiative Processes on Greenland Ice Sheet Albedo and Surface Mass Balance in E3SM

Abstract A significant portion of surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is due to dark ice regions in the ablation zone, where solar absorption is influenced by the physical properties of the ice, light absorbing constituents (LACs), and the overlying crustal surface or melt ponds. Earth system models (ESMs) typically prescribe the albedo of ice surfaces as a constant value in the visible and near‐infrared spectral regions. This work advances ESM ice radiative transfer modeling by (a) incorporating a physically based radiative transfer model (SNow, ICe and Aerosol Radiation model Adding‐Doubling Version 4; SNICAR‐ADv4) into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), (b) determining spatially and temporally varying bare ice physical properties over the GrIS ablation zone from satellite observations to inform SNICAR‐ADv4, and (c) assessing the impacts on simulated GrIS albedo and surface mass balance associated with modeling of more realistic bare ice albedo. GrIS‐wide bare ice albedo in E3SMv2 is overestimated by ∼4% in the visible and ∼7% in the near‐infrared wavelengths compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Our bare ice physical property retrieval method found that LACs, ice crustal surfaces, and melt ponds reduce visible albedo by 30% in the bare ice region of the GrIS ablation zone. The realistic bare ice albedo reduces surface mass balance by ∼145 Gt, or 0.4 mm of sea‐level equivalent between 2000 and 2021 compared to the default E3SM. This work highlights the importance of simulating bare ice albedo accurately and realistically to improve our ability to quantify changes in the GrIS surface mass and radiative energy budgets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Coexistence of soft and hard magnetic phases in single layer amorphous Tb–Co thin films

Amorphous, ferrimagnetic Tb-Co thin films prepared with a thin Ta underlayer and either a Ta or a Pt overlayer show evidence of both soft and hard magnetic phases. At room temperature, the films exhibit conventional ferromagnetism, but low temperature magnetometry measurements reveal the decoupling of the two magnetic phases with decreasing temperature due to increased anisotropy energy of the hard layer at lower temperatures. Decreasing the film thickness to 2 nm, slightly above the superparamagnetic limit found at 1 nm, a soft, low-density phase was isolated and found to be present in all the films as confirmed with x-ray reflectivity and Rutherford backscattering spectrometry measurements. For greater thicknesses, the bottom layer retains its soft magnetic nature, while the remainder of the film is denser and has strong perpendicular magnetic anisotropy, leading to the exchange-spring behavior when the anisotropy becomes large, either at low temperatures or via a Pt overlayer that adds a strong interfacial anisotropy to the layer. Micromagnetic simulations of a soft/hard bilayer model with the experimentally determined anisotropy and magnetization parameters into a soft/hard bilayer model reproduced the experimental hysteretic behavior very well. These findings demonstrate how the magnetic state and the response of a-Tb-Co films to external fields can be controlled, providing a high degree of tunability that is promising for high-performance nanoscale devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Medium amplitude parallel superposition (MAPS) rheology. Part 2: Experimental protocols and data analysis

An experimental protocol is developed to directly measure the new material functions revealed by medium amplitude parallel superposition (MAPS) rheology. This protocol measures the medium amplitude response of a material to a simple shear deformation composed of three sine waves at different frequencies, revealing a rich dataset consisting of up to 19 measurements of the third-order complex modulus at distinct three-frequency coordinates. We discuss how the choice of input frequencies influences the features of the MAPS domain studied by the experiment. A polynomial interpolation method for reducing the bias of measured values from spectral leakage and reducing variance due to noise is discussed, including a derivation of the optimal range of amplitudes for the input signal. This leads to the conclusion that conducting the experiment in a stress-controlled fashion possesses a distinct advantage to the strain-controlled mode. The experimental protocol is demonstrated through measurements of the MAPS response of a model complex fluid: a surfactant solution of wormlike micelles. The resulting dataset is indeed large and feature-rich, while still acquired in a time comparable to similar medium amplitude oscillatory shear (MAOS) experiments. We demonstrate that the data represent measurements of an intrinsic material function by studying its internal consistency, compatibility with low-frequency predictions for Coleman–Noll simple fluids, and agreement with data obtained via MAOS amplitude sweeps. Finally, the data are compared to predictions from the corotational Maxwell model to demonstrate the power of MAPS rheology in determining whether a constitutive model is consistent with a material’s time-dependent response.

Lennon, Kyle R. (ORCID:0000000212515461)↗

Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa's path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhancing the accuracy and generality of the Debye–Grüneisen Model: Optimizing the volume dependence for accurate predictions across varied compositions

In this work, we have introduced an optimized Debye-Grüneisen model that revolutionizes the determination of the Debye temperature and Grüneisen parameters. Unlike conventional methods, our model requires only the 0 K energy volume data for a material as input, eliminating the need to determine the bulk modulus and its pressure derivative, which often pose challenges due to numerical uncertainties. This unique feature sets our model apart from existing approaches and streamlines the process, enabling accurate predictions of thermal expansion behavior across various materials. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we showcase its excellent agreement with measured coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) for the nickel-cobalt-chromium-aluminum-yttrium (Ni-Co-Cr-Al-Y) bond-coating system. Additionally, we apply our approach by conducting a high-throughput search for potential bond-coating materials among 90,000 compositions within the aluminum-cobalt-chromium-iron-nickel (Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni) system. From this extensive search, four compositions are synthesized, and the measured CTE values agree very well with theoretical predictions, hence validating our approach. In conclusion, the current optimized Debye-Grüneisen model combined with Density Functional Theory (DFT)-based thermodynamic database enables reliable and efficient high-throughput calculations of CTE of of a material without expensive phonon calculations.

Bond coating materials↗