Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “modeling discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25

AVHRR Surface Temperature and Narrow-Band Albedo Comparison with Ground Measurements for the Greenland Ice Sheet

An ice-surface temperature retrieval algorithm for the Greenland ice sheet was developed using NOAA 11 thermal radiances from channels 4 and 5. Temperature, pressure and humidity profiles, cloud observations and skin temperatures from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) camp, located at the equilibrium line altitude at 49 deg17 min W, 69 deg 34 min N, were used in the LOWTRAN 7 model. Through a statistical analysis of daily clear sky profiles, the coefficients that correct for the atmospheric effects were determined for the ETH-Camp field season (May to August). Surface temperatures retrieved by this method were then compared against the in situ observations with a maximum difference of 0.6 K. The NOAA 11 narrow-band planetary albedo values for channels 1 and 2 were calculated using pre-launch calibration coefficients. Scattering and absorption by the atmosphere were modelled with LOWTRAN 7. Then, narrow-band albedo values for the AVHRR visible and near infrared channels were compared with in situ high resolution spectral reflectance measurements. In the visible band (580-680 nm), AVHRR-derived narrow-band albedo and the in situ measurements corrected with radiative transfer model LOWTRAN 7 showed a difference of less than 2%. For the near infrared channel (725-1100 nm) the difference between the measured and modelled narrow-band albedo was 14%. These discrepancies could be either the result of inaccurate aerosol scattering modelling (lack of the in situ observation), or the result of sensor drift due to degradation.

Haefliger, M.↗

Promoting CO 2 Release from CO 3 2- -Containing Solvents during Water Electrolysis for Direct Air Capture

The pH swings from water electrolysis are leveraged to condition OH – -based facile CO 2 capture solvents using an electrochemical flow cell for direct air capture (DAC). Besides demonstrating the DAC using a membrane contactor, promoting CO 2 release from a CO 3 2– solution at the anode is specifically studied by adjusting the volumetric flow rate, anode chamber volume, residence time, and K 2 CO 3 concentration. Through case-by-case comparisons coupled with modeled results, increasing current, reducing volumetric flow rate, and/or reducing CO 3 2– concentration are the effective methods to promote CO 2 release from a CO 3 2– -containing solvent, whereas enlarging the anode chamber volume poses a minor effect. Moreover, the discrepancies between the experimental and modeled results may be caused by H + crossover rather than K + transport through the Nafion membrane during water electrolysis based upon the total alkalinity measurements for the K 2 CO 3 solutions gleaned from the anode. Here, it is believed that such results will provide guidance to design and operate an electrochemical flow cell for electrochemistry-assisted DAC and point source CO 2 capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Assessment and validation of NEAMS tools for high-fidelity multiphysics transient modeling of microreactors: Application of NEAMS codes to perform multiphysics modeling analyses of micro-reactor concepts

The NEAMS Multiphysics Applications team aims at providing assessment of code useability and functionality for microreactor design and analyses, together with demonstration of their capabilities to properly capture the steady-state and time-dependent behavior of different microreactor concepts. In FY-24, significant progress was achieved in improving multi-physics models of several microreactors systems: HP-MR, GC-MR and KRUSTY. These efforts focused on solving more complex multiphysics problems enabled by enhanced tools capability, verifying and validating results obtained, providing feedback to developers for suggested improvements, and sharing these models to facilitate user training. A series of new multiphysics transients were completed on the HP-MR (using Griffin/BISON/Sockeye) with core startup transient, control drum inadvertent rotation accident, and hydrogen leakage from hydride moderator (also including SWIFT). On the GC-MR, a new full-core model was developed and analyzed through a series of new multiphysics (Griffin/BISON/SAM) transients to simulate moderator leakage (also including SWIFT), flow blockage and coolant depressurization. Additional and updated TRISO failure analyses were completed on the HP-MR unit-cell and GC-MR assembly models leveraging improved TRISO modeling capabilities. The amount of SiC failure following accidental transients at end-of-life was null. However, GC-MR assembly TRISO analysis highlighted Pd penetration rate can be problematic and may require design changes on the studied microreactor concept. The neutronics discrepancies observed on the KRUSTY model in previous years were resolved using hybrid set of Monte Carlo/Deterministic cross-sections. The multiphysics (Griffin neutronics / BISON thermal-mechanics) 15₵ insertion transient simulation displayed good agreement when comparing with experimental data. Initial modeling of the 30 ₵ reactivity insertion also displays promising results. Such close agreement provides important validation data that can be leveraged by the NEAMS program and by microreactor vendors to support licensing of their technology. Finally, important experience was gathered with the NEAMS tools leading to several user feedback shared with tools developers, especially with regards to MOOSE mesh generator and Griffin. This project led to many publications demonstrating modeling capabilities, and to three models shared on the Virtual Test Bed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Inadequacy of the statistical many-body model for molecular infrared absorption in the far wings

It is known that the infrared absorption coefficient of CO2 in the far wings is far less than what is derived from the assumption of a Lorentzian absorption profile. Sorgen and Ben-Aryeh (1972) tried to show that by incorporating the statistical many-body model into impact theory, the discrepancy between the Lorentzian absorption profile and the experimental infrared absorption coefficient can be removed. This paper attempts to show that the high frequency or short-time property of the dipole-dipole interaction cannot be adequately explained by the many-body model; in other words, the statistical model as conventionally understood is not applicable to infrared spectral lines in the far wings.

Fowler, B. W.↗

A comparison between ShapeFit compression and Full-Modelling method with PyBird for DESI 2024 and beyond

DESI aims to provide one of the tightest constraints on cosmological parameters by analysing the clustering of more than thirty million galaxies. However, obtaining such constraints requires special care in validating the methodology and efforts to reduce the computational time required through data compression and emulation techniques. In this work, we perform a rigorous validation of the PyBird power spectrum modelling code with both a traditional emulated Full-Modelling approach and the model-independent ShapeFit compression approach. By using cubic box simulations that accurately reproduce the clustering and precision of the DESI survey, we find that the cosmological constraints from ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are consistent with each other at the ∼ 0.5σ level for the ΛCDM model. Both ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are also consistent with the true ΛCDM simulation cosmology down to a scale of k max = 0.20 hMpc -1 even after including the hexadecapole. For extended models such as the wCDM and the oCDM models, we find that including the hexadecapole can significantly improve the constraints and reduce the modelling errors with the same k max . While their discrepancies between the constraints from ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are more significant than ΛCDM, they remain consistent within 0.7σ. Lastly, we also show that the constraints on cosmological parameters with the correlation function evaluated from PyBird down to s min = 30h -1 Mpc are unbiased and consistent with the constraints from the power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Frequency based localization of structural discrepancies

The intent of modal analysis is to develop a reliable model of a structure by working with the analytical and experimental modal properties of frequency, damping and mode shape. In addition to identifying these modal properties, it would be desirable to determine spatially which parts of the structure are modelled poorly or well. It is shown how the pattern of discrepancies in the analytical and experimental test values for the pole and the driving point zero frequencies of a structure can be linked to discrepancies in the mass or stiffness of the structural elements. The success of the procedure depends on the numerical conditioning of a modal reference matrix. Strategies to insure adequate numerical conditioning require a formulation which avoids geometric and energy storage symmetries of the structure, and ignores structural elements which contribute negligibly small potential or kinetic energy to the excited modes. Physical insight into the numerical conditioning problem is provided by a numerical example and by localization of a mass discrepancy in a real structure based on lab tests.

Shepard, G. D.↗

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Grain Destruction in a Supernova Remnant Shock Wave

Dust grains are sputtered away in the hot gas behind shock fronts in supernova remnants, gradually enriching the gas phase with refractory elements. We have measured emission in C IV (lambda)1550 from C atoms sputtered from dust in the gas behind a non-radiative shock wave in the northern Cygnus Loop. Overall, the intensity observed behind the shock agrees approximately with predictions from model calculations that match the Spitzer 24 micron and the X-ray intensity profiles. Thus these observations confirm the overall picture of dust destruction in SNR shocks and the sputtering rates used in models. However, there is a discrepancy in that the CIV intensity 10'' behind the shock is too high compared to the intensities at the shock and 25'' behind it. Variations in the density, hydrogen neutral fraction and the dust properties over parsec scales in the pre- shock medium limit our ability to test dust destruction models in detail.

dust↗

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A critical analysis of CLO and O3 in the mid-latitude stratosphere

The Caltech one-dimensional photochemical model is used to analyze important questions concerning the upper stratospheric O3 and the key HO(x), NO(x), and ClO(x) free radicals. The model is described and first order effects of the inclusion of diffuse radiation in a spherical rather than plane parallel atmosphere at solar zenith angles close to 90 deg are assessed. A comparison is made between photochemical theory and observations for upper stratospheric O3, where local photochemistry rather than dynamics should control the O3 abundance. The photochemical equilibrium relation for odd oxygen is studied, including the important radicals involves. It is concluded that a significant model ozone deficit exists in the upper stratosphere. Possible causes for such a discrepancy are investigated in light of current model and experimental uncertainties. In particular, the observational ratio of atomic oxygen to zone appears to disagree with the model results.

Froidevaux, L.↗

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗

YAHFC: A Code Framework to Model Nuclear Reactions and Estimate Correlated Uncertainties

Reaction modeling is a key ingredient in designing experiments and interpreting their results, and is an essential component in the process of evaluating nuclear data and assembling nuclear data libraries used in nuclear technology applications. Typically, experimental data are available only for a handful of reaction channels and theory models are used to fill in the gaps. In addition, theory is often called upon as the arbitrator between discrepant data. Most importantly, theory and modeling are required for an accurate determination of uncertainties in the evaluated data and the correlations between the multiple channels. A fast, accurate, and flexible modeling capability has been developed at LLNL with the code system YAHFC (Yet Another Hauser-Feshbach Code). YAHFC is a Monte Carlo, Hauser-Feshbach code framework, making full use of dynamic memory allocation, derived types, and parallel computing. YAHFC can generate events to simulate experiments and is guiding experiments designed to measure inelastic neutron scattering from actinide targets. YAHFC is also being used to analyze decays from surrogate experiments, thereby enabling the inference of reaction cross sections inaccessible by direct measurement. Finally, by modeling nuclear reactions with constraints from experimental data, YAHFC can deliver complete nuclear data libraries, with evaluated uncertainties, using the modernized Generalized Nuclear Data Structure (GNDS).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The use of transition heights for the representation of ion composition

Several characteristic transition heights can be found in ionospheric ion-composition profiles. These are the boundaries between the regions dominated by light ions, atomic oxygen ions, molecular ions, and cluster ions, respectively. Ion-composition modeling can benefit from the use of these transition heights. Special emphasis is given to the 'upper' transition height H sub T (light ions to atomic oxygen) and to the 'lower' transition height h sub t (atomic oxygen to molecular ions). Transition-height models deduced from rocket and satellite measurements are compared with the heights predicted by the International Reference Ionosphere. Considerable discrepancies are found between the different models as well as between the models and independent measurements.

Bilitza, Dieter↗

A critical evaluation of semianalytic methods in the study of centrally heated, unresolved, infrared sources

We critically evaluate current methods of analysis in infrared (IR) astronomy and investigate the conditions under which these semianalytic methods are reliable. Specifically we examine the usual assumptions of homogeneities in dust density and temperature, and neglect of opacity effects when applied to internally heated, unresolved IR sources. To accomplish this, a series of radiation transport models for these sources have been constructed. The model results are treated as observed quantities and analyzed to derive the source parameters, using simple semianalytic methods. The discrepancies between the derived and actual model parameters can then be attributed to the limitations of the analysis methods and provide a measure of their reliability. Applying this approach to centrally heated, unresolved IR sources, we have studied in detail the following diagnostic problems: (1) determination of dust mass from monochromatic and integrated luminosities; (2) estimation of dust temperature distribution from color temperatures derived from the flux spectrum; and (3) determination of the empirical grain emissivity law (opacity function) for both continuum and spectral features.

Doty, Steven D.↗

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Advanced Microscopic Energy Consumption Model for Automated Vehicle:Development, Calibration, Verification

The automated vehicle (AV) equipped with the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system is expected to reduce the fuel consumption for the intelligent transportation system. This paper presents the Advanced ACC-Micro (AA-Micro) model, a new energy consumption model based on micro trajectory data, calibrated and verified by empirical data. Utilizing a commercial AV equipped with the ACC system as the test platform, experiments were conducted at the Columbus 151 Speedway, capturing data from multiple ACC and Human-Driven (HV) test runs. The calibrated AA-Micro model integrates features from traditional energy consumption models and demonstrates superior goodness of fit, achieving an impressive 90% accuracy in predicting ACC system energy consumption without overfitting. A comprehensive statistical evaluation of the AA-Micro model's applicability and adaptability in predicting energy consumption and vehicle trajectories indicated strong model consistency and reliability for ACC vehicles, evidenced by minimal variance in RMSE values and uniform RSS distributions. Conversely, significant discrepancies were observed when applying the model to HV data, underscoring the necessity for specialized models to accurately predict energy consumption for HV and ACC systems, potentially due to their distinct energy consumption characteristics.

Ma, Ke↗

Boundary layer roll circulations during FIRE

The probable mechanism underlying the development of boundary layer roll circulations are studied using wind and temperature profiles measured by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra during the stratocumulus phase of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE). The expected, or preferred, roll orientations, horizontal wavelengths, and propagation periods are determined by finding the minimum values of the dynamic and thermodynamic forcing parameters, which here are the eddy Reynolds number (Re) and moist Rayleigh number (Ra sub m). These minimum values depend on the height z sub T of the capping temperature inversion and on the values of the Fourier coefficients of the background height-dependent vector wind profile. As input to our nonlinear spectral model, descent and ascent runs by the Electra provide for initial estimates of the inversion height and the wind profiles. In the first phase of the investigation presented here, a mechanism is said to be a probable contributor to the development of roll circulations within the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer if the modeled roll orientation and wavelengths agree with their observed values. Preliminary results using the 14-coefficient model of Haack-Hirschberg (1988) are discussed for the 7 July 1987 Electra Mission 188-A (Flight 5). This mission was flown across a sharp cloud boundary that was within a LANDSAT/SPOT scene. The stratocumulus deck was relatively solid in the eastern part of the scene, while there was a rapid decrease in cloud cover to scattered cumulus clouds aligned in streets to the west. These cloud streets were oriented nearly parallel to the mean wind direction in the layer, which was approximately 340 degrees. The hypothesis that roll circulations occurred in both the relatively clear and the cloudy regions is investigated using as model input a descent profile obtained in the relatively clear air and an ascent profile obtained in the cloudy air. Initial results for the clear air case are that the pure inflection point mode is not possible and the pure thermal mode was oriented 35 degrees to the right of the mean wind direction. The origin of this unacceptably large discrepancy between the observed and modeled results will be investigated further and the conclusions reported at the next FIRE workshop.

Shirer, Hampton N.↗