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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An Experiment with LLMs as Database Design Tutors: Persistent Equity and Fairness Challenges in Online Learning

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, their capacity to replace humans as their surrogates is also improving. As increasing numbers of intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) are embracing the integration of LLMs for digital tutoring, questions are arising as to how effective they are and if their hallucinatory behaviors diminish their perceived advantages. One critical question that is seldom asked if the availability, plurality, and relative weaknesses in the reasoning process of LLMs are contributing to the much discussed digital divide and equity and fairness in online learning. In this paper, we present an experiment with database design theory assignments and demonstrate that while their capacity to reason logically is improving, LLMs are still prone to serious errors. We demonstrate that in online learning and in the absence of a human instructor, LLMs could introduce inequity in the form of “wrongful” tutoring that could be devastatingly harmful for learners, which we call ignorant bias, in increasingly popular digital learning. We also show that significant challenges remain for STEM subjects, especially for subjects for which sound and free online tutoring systems exist. Based on the set of use cases, we formulate a possible direction for an effective ITS for online database learning classes of the future.

Jamil, Hasan M. (ORCID:0000000231243780)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spin Stripes and Superconductivity in Bilayer Nickelates

The bilayer nickelate La3Ni2O7 has recently emerged as a high-temperature superconductor with unusual spin stripe order in its ambient pressure phase. We propose a microscopic Hamiltonian that faithfully reflects the crystalline symmetry of this system, with the primary aim of addressing its unconventional magnetism at ambient pressure. Using state-of-the-art density matrix renormalization group calculations, we show that (π/2,π/2) spin stripe order arises in our model at sizable Hund's coupling JH from a hidden quasi-one-dimensionality and persists over a range of electron concentrations. In the more symmetric high-pressure regime, our model exhibits enhanced interlayer pairing tendencies when the interlayer antiferromagnetic coupling J⊥ becomes sufficiently large. Our results provide a microscopic origin of the diagonal spin stripes and identify Hund's coupling JH and interlayer coupling J⊥ as key ingredients governing magnetic order and pairing tendencies in La3Ni2O7.

Wang, Hao-Xin [The Chinese University of Hong Kong↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Abstract Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Interpretation of TOMS Observations of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone with a Global Model and In Situ Observations

We interpret the distribution of tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOCs) from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) by using a global three-dimensional model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) and additional information from in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM TTOCs capture 44% of the variance of monthly mean TOMS TTOCs from the convective cloud differential method (CCD) with no global bias. Major discrepancies are found over northern Africa and south Asia where the TOMS TTOCs do not capture the seasonal enhancements from biomass burning found in the model and in aircraft observations. A characteristic feature of these northern topical enhancements, in contrast to southern tropical enhancements, is that they are driven by the lower troposphere where the sensitivity of TOMS is poor due to Rayleigh scattering. We develop an efficiency correction to the TOMS retrieval algorithm that accounts for the variability of ozone in the lower troposphere. This efficiency correction increases TTOC's over biomass burning regions by 3-5 Dobson units (DU) and decreases them by 2-5 DU over oceanic regions, improving the agreement between CCD TTOCs and in situ observations. Applying the correction to CCD TTOCs reduces by approximately DU the magnitude of the "tropical Atlantic paradox" [Thompson et al, 2000], i.e. the presence of a TTOC enhancement over the southern tropical Atlantic during the northern African biomass burning season in December-February. We reproduce the remainder of the paradox in the model and explain it by the combination of upper tropospheric ozone production from lightning NOx, peristent subsidence over the southern tropical Atlantic as part of the Walker circulation, and cross-equatorial transport of upper tropospheric ozone from northern midlatitudes in the African "westerly duct." These processes in the model can also account for the observed 13-17 DU persistent wave-1 pattern in TTOCs with a maximum above the tropical Atlantic and a minimum over the tropical Pacific during all seasons. The photochemical effects of mineral dust have only a minor role on the modeled distribution of TTOCs, including over northern Africa, due to multiple competing effects. The photochemical effects of mineral dust globally decease annual mean OH concentrations by 9%. A global lightning NOx source of 6 Tg N yr(sup -1) in the model produces a simulation that is most consistent with TOMS and in situ observations.

Martin, Randall V.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Metabolic multistability and hysteresis in a model aerobe-anaerobe microbiome community

Major changes in the microbiome are associated with health and disease. Some microbiome states persist despite seemingly unfavorable conditions, such as the proliferation of aerobe-anaerobe communities in oxygen-exposed environments in wound infections or small intestinal bacterial overgrowth. Mechanisms underlying transitions into and persistence of these states remain unclear. Using two microbial taxa relevant to the human microbiome, we combine genome-scale mathematical modeling, bioreactor experiments, transcriptomics, and dynamical systems theory to show that multistability and hysteresis (MSH) is a mechanism describing the shift from an aerobe-dominated state to a resilient, paradoxically persistent aerobe-anaerobe state. We examine the impact of changing oxygen and nutrient regimes and identify changes in metabolism and gene expression that lead to MSH and associated multi-stable states. In such systems, conceptual causation-correlation connections break and MSH must be used for analysis. Using MSH to analyze microbiome dynamics will improve our conceptual understanding of stability of microbiome states and transitions between states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Pore-Scale Simulation of Intragranular Diffusion: Effects of Incomplete Mixing on Macroscopic Manifestations

Diffusive mass transfer into and out of intragranular micropores ("intragranular diffusion") plays an important role in the large-scale transport of some groundwater contaminants. We are interested in understanding the combined effect of pore-scale advection and intragranular diffusion on solute transport at the effective porous medium scale. To study this problem, we have developed a three-dimensional pore-scale model of fluid flow and solute transport that incorporates diffusion into and out of intragranular pore spaces. Our model is based on the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulation method, which represents fluid and solid phases by a mesh-free particle discretization. In the pore spaces, fluid flow is simulated by discretizing the Navier-Stokes equations using the SPH approach. Solute transport is represented by advection, diffusion within the fluid phase, and diffusion between the fluid and solid phases. Our model is implemented on large-scale parallel computing hardware, allowing us to simulate millions of computational particles and represent fully three-dimensional systems of pores and grains with arbitrarily complex physical geometry. We have used this model system to perform numerical experiments using various model porous media systems, which allows us to draw comparisons between macroscopic measures computed from the pore-scale simulations (such as breakthrough curves) and those predicted by macroscopic formulations that assume complete mixing over the representative volume. In this paper we present results of 3D simulations of pore-scale flow and transport, including cases with and without intragranular diffusion, in two model porous media, one with randomly-packed uniform spherical grains and a second with randomly-packed spheres drawn from a binary grain size distribution. Breakthrough curves were computed from the 3D simulations at various transport distances. Comparable breakthrough curves were computed using 1D macroscopic models with parameters determined independently to the degree possible. Based on comparisons of the pore-scale and macroscopic model results, we draw two primary conclusions. First, non-Fickian behavior is persistent and ubiquitous at the scales considered, and most cases are better represented by a multi-rate mass transfer model even when there is no distinct secondary porosity (i.e., no intragranular diffusion). This suggests that diffusive mass transfer processes between preferential flow paths and relatively immobile zones within the primary porosity may have significant impact on transport, particular in low-concentration tails. Second, the application of mass transfer rate parameters based on an assumption of well-mixed concentrations at the pore-scale tend to overestimate the amount of mass transfer that occurs in heterogeneous pore geometries in which preferential flow leads to incomplete pore-scale lateral mixing.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2024

Off-Lattice Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations of Mechanically Driven Polymers

Here, we develop off-lattice simulations of semiflexible polymer chains subjected to applied mechanical forces by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our approach models the polymer as a chain of fixed length bonds, with configurations updated through adaptive nonlocal Monte Carlo moves. This proposed method enables precise calculation of a polymer’s response to a wide range of mechanical forces, which traditional on-lattice models cannot achieve. Our approach has shown excellent agreement with theoretical predictions of persistence length and end-to-end distance in quiescent states as well as stretching distances under tension. Moreover, our model eliminates the orientational bias present in on-lattice models, which significantly impacts calculations such as the scattering function, a crucial technique for revealing the polymer conformation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Grid Contingency Analysis with Machine Learning: A Brief Survey and Prospects

We briefly review previous applications of machine learning (ML) in power grid analyses and introduce our ongoing effort toward developing a generative-adversarial (GA) model for fast and reliable grid contingency analyses. According to our review, the persisting limitation of traditional ML techniques in grid analyses is the need for an exhaustive amount of training data for model generalization and accurate predictions. GA models overcome this limitation by first learning true data distribution from a small training set, from which new samples assimilating true data are generated with some variations. Subsequently, GA models can transfer learn or super-generalize with increased accuracy, that is, accurately predict n - (k + 2) contingencies from a small n - k training set and generated n - (k + 1) data. The joint effort between Idaho National Lab and Florida State University strives to develop a zero-shot and deep learning-based contingency analysis tool, named Smart Contingency Analysis Neural Network (SCANN), by leveraging the aforementioned advantages of GA models. The basic architecture of SCANN stems from the Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbations network combined with an adversarial network, and it is designed to generate imbalanced power flow data from learned true data distributions for prediction purposes. Here we also introduce the abstract concept of resilience-chaos plots, a new resilience characterization tool proposed to complement SCANN by aiding in the assessment of large amounts of high-order contingency predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Axisymmetric Radiative Transfer Models of Kilonovae

The detailed observations of GW170817 proved for the first time directly that neutron star mergers are a major production site of heavy elements. The observations could be fit by a number of simulations that qualitatively agree, but can quantitatively differ (e.g., in total r-process mass) by an order of magnitude. We categorize kilonova ejecta into several typical morphologies motivated by numerical simulations, and apply a radiative transfer Monte Carlo code to study how the geometric distribution of the ejecta shapes the emitted radiation. We find major impacts on both spectra and light curves. The peak bolometric luminosity can vary by two orders of magnitude and the timing of its peak by a factor of five. These findings provide the crucial implication that the ejecta masses inferred from observations around the peak brightness are uncertain by at least an order of magnitude. Mixed two-component models with lanthanide-rich ejecta are particularly sensitive to geometric distribution. A subset of mixed models shows very strong viewing angle dependence due to lanthanide "curtaining," which persists even if the relative mass of lanthanide-rich component is small. The angular dependence is weak in the rest of our models, but different geometric combinations of the two components lead to a highly diverse set of light curves. We identify geometry-dependent P Cygni features in late spectra that directly map out strong lines in the simulated opacity of neodymium, which can help to constrain the ejecta geometry and to directly probe the r-process abundances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models

In this paper, metrics are proposed—that is, a few summary statistics that condense large amounts of data from observations or model simulations—encapsulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Vector area averaging of Fourier amplitude and phase produces useful information in a reasonably small number of harmonic dial plots, a procedure familiar from atmospheric tide research. The metrics cover most of the globe but down-weight high-latitude wintertime ocean areas where baroclinic waves are most prominent. This enables intercomparison of a large number of climate models with observations and with each other. The diurnal cycle of precipitation has features not encountered in typical climate model intercomparisons, notably the absence of meaningful “average model” results that can be displayed in a single two-dimensional map. Displaying one map per model guides development of the metrics proposed here by making it clear that land and ocean areas must be averaged separately, but interpreting maps from all models becomes problematic as the size of a multimodel ensemble increases. Global diurnal metrics provide quick comparisons with observations and among models, using the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This includes, for the first time in CMIP, spatial resolutions comparable to global satellite observations. Finally, consistent with earlier studies of resolution versus parameterization of the diurnal cycle, the longstanding tendency of models to produce rainfall too early in the day persists in the high-resolution simulations, as expected if the error is due to subgrid-scale physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard Models for U.S. Energy Infrastructure Resilience

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense storms that pose a persistent and considerable risk to coastal communities and infrastructure in the global tropics and subtropics, including the United States (US). With known limitations associated with observations and high-resolution earth system models, synthetic TC models that capture a wide spectrum of storm possibilities have been developed to robustly quantify TC risk. Here we examine the simulation of various TC features in the North Atlantic relevant for US coastal risk in three synthetic TC models forced with ERA5 reanalysis: MIT, CHAZ and RAFT. While there is a broad agreement among these models in terms of their representation of salient TC characteristics, certain differences do exist. To connect these modeling uncertainties with energy infrastructure resilience, we apply fragility curves that link simulated TC intensities to damage probabilities, demonstrating how uncertainty in storm states may translate into that in coastal impacts. Our study indicates that acknowledging and accounting for inter-model uncertainty leads to more reliable risk assessments, strengthening science-to-action pathways for managing risks associated with TCs.

Baby John, Effy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simple holographic models of black hole evaporation

Several recent papers have shown a close relationship between entanglement wedge reconstruction and the unitarity of black hole evaporation in AdS/CFT. The analysis of these papers however has a rather puzzling feature: all calculations are done using bulk dynamics which are essentially those Hawking used to predict information loss, but applying ideas from entanglement wedge reconstruction seems to suggest a Page curve which is consistent with information conservation. Why should two different calculations in the same model give different answers for the Page curve? In this note we present a new pair of models which clarify this situation. Our first model gives a holographic illustration of unitary black hole evaporation, in which the analogue of the Hawking radiation purifies itself as expected, and this purification is reproduced by the entanglement wedge analysis. Moreover a smooth black hole interior persists until the last stages the evaporation process. Our second model gives an alternative holographic interpretation of the situation where the bulk evolution leads to information loss: unlike in the models proposed so far, this bulk information loss is correctly reproduced by the entanglement wedge analysis. This serves as an illustration that quantum extremal surfaces are in some sense kinematic: the time-dependence of the entropy they compute depends on the choice of bulk dynamics. In both models no bulk quantum corrections need to be considered: classical extremal surfaces are enough to do the job. We argue that our first model is the one which gives the right analogy for what actually happens to evaporating black holes, but we also emphasize that any complete resolution of the information problem will require an understanding of non-perturbative bulk dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

A simple model of the effect of ocean ventilation on ocean heat uptake

Presentation includes slides on Earth System Models vs. Simple Climate Models; A Popular SCM: Energy Balance Model of Anomalies; On calibrating against one ESM experiment, the SCM correctly captures that ESM's surface warming response with other forcings; Multi-Model Analysis: Multiple ESMs, Single SCM; Posterior Distributions of ECS; However In Excess of 90% of TOA Energy Imbalance is Sequestered in the World Oceans; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Heat Storage in the Two Layer Model; Including TOA Rad. Imbalance and Ocean Heat in Calibration Improves Repr., but Significant Errors Persist; Improved Vertical Resolution Does Not Fix Problem; A Series of Expts. Confirms That Anomaly-Diffusing Models Cannot Properly Represent Ocean Heat Uptake; Physics of the Thermocline; Outcropping Isopycnals and Horizontally-Averaged Layers; Local interactions between outcropping isopycnals leads to non-local interactions between horizontally-averaged layers; Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat are Well Represented With Just 4 Layers; A Series of Expts. Confirms That When Non-Local Interactions are Allowed, the SCMs Can Represent Both Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Uptake; and Summary and Conclusions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Is solid copper oxalate a spin chain or a mixture of entangled spin pairs?

Macroscopic assemblies of interacting spins give rise to a broad spectrum of behaviors determined by the spatial arrangement of the magnetic sites and the electronic interactions between them. Compounds of copper (II), in which each copper carries spin 1/2, exhibit a vast variety of physical properties. For antiferromagnetically coupled spin sites, there are two limiting scenarios: spin chains in which the spins can exhibit a long-range order or a mixture of dimers in which the spins within each pair are entangled but do not communicate with the spins from other dimers. In principle, the two types can be distinguished on the basis of experimental observations and modeling using empirically parameterized effective Hamiltonians, but in practice, ambiguity may persist for decades, as is the case for copper oxalate. Here we use high-level ab initio calculations to establish the validity of the nearest-site Heisenberg model and to predict the interaction strength between the magnetic sites. Finally, the computed magnetic susceptibility provides an unambiguous interpretation of magnetic experiments performed throughout half a century, clearly supporting the infinite spin-chain behavior of solid copper oxalate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised T-GCN for Detection of Disturbance and Propagation in Power Grid

Urban power systems increasingly rely on dense sensing to monitor grid reliability, yet disturbance labels are scarce and events are rare. We present a self-supervised spatio-temporal method that detects, localizes, and characterizes grid frequency disturbances across urban areas using only unlabeled data. Our approach trains a tiny Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (T-GCN) to forecast per-site frequency residuals (deviation from 60 Hz). The sensor graph is constructed directly from signals using pre-event Pearson correlation with a cross-correlation lag penalty without geocoding. At inference, node-level anomalies are the model's forecast errors; region-level alarms arise from connected components of high-score nodes. We estimate disturbance propagation by computing per-node arrival times (first persistent exceedance), then fit a planar or time-of-arrival model to obtain direction, speed, and an epicenter proxy. With only three real events collected at decisecond resolution across U.S. cities, we evaluate the T-GCN and report time-to-detect, footprint size, and propagation consistency. We further show that short-window embeddings from the T-GCN's hidden states enable few-shot event-vs-background recognition via a simple prototypical classifier. Despite minimal data and no labels, our system yields fast, spatially coherent detection and interpretable propagation maps, offering a practical, lightweight pathway to city-scale grid resilience analytics.

Niu, Haoran [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000155228297)↗