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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling of regional geophysics and local soil-structure models in the EQSIM fault-to-structure earthquake simulation framework

Accurate understanding and quantification of the risk to critical infrastructure posed by future large earthquakes continues to be a very challenging problem. Earthquake phenomena are quite complex and traditional approaches to predicting ground motions for future earthquake events have historically been empirically based whereby measured ground motion data from historical earthquakes are homogenized into a common data set and the ground motions for future postulated earthquakes are probabilistically derived based on the historical observations. This procedure has recognized significant limitations, principally due to the fact that earthquake ground motions tend to be dictated by the particular earthquake fault rupture and geologic conditions at a given site and are thus very site-specific. Historical earthquakes recorded at different locations are often only marginally representative. There has been strong and increasing interest in utilizing large-scale, physics-based regional simulations to advance the ability to accurately predict ground motions and associated infrastructure response. However, the computational requirements for simulations at frequencies of engineering interest have proven a major barrier to employing regional scale simulations. In a U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Initiative project, the EQSIM application development is underway to create a framework for fault-to-structure simulations. This framework is being prepared to exploit emerging exascale platforms in order to overcome computational limitations. This article presents the essential methodology and computational workflow employed in EQSIM to couple regional-scale geophysics models with local soil-structure models to achieve a fully integrated, complete fault-to-structure simulation framework. Here, the computational workflow, accuracy and performance of the coupling methodology are illustrated through example fault-to-structure simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Neutron Substructure with Advanced Polarized Helium-3 Targets (Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Spectroscopy)

As we seek to understand the smallest, physical aspects of our universe, we cannot simply rely on our senses to probe the world around us as we did in the past. The smallest physical elements of our universe behave in strange, probabilistic ways and are completely invisible to the naked eye/ear/etc. So, we design clever experiments (such as scattering experiments) to probe these minute realms. Then, just as with the larger, observable world, we devise models and equations to describe what we think is happening. Due to the nature of the physical universe at the quantum scale and with the aid of symmetries such as Lorentz invariance, we can write down equations that describe the scattering, but the expressions contain functions, which we call ?form factors? and ?structure functions?, that we cannot compute from first principles. We can, however, formulate models that make predictions for these functions. By comparing our predictions with the observed data, we can gain insight into the validity of our models and thus a better physical understanding of what is happening at these minuscule scales. Studying the constituents inside of the nucleus of an atom adds another layer of difficulty if we can?t remove those components from the nucleus. This is the case with the neutron. When not bound in the nucleus with protons and other neutrons, the neutron will decay into a proton after about 15 minutes. So, we?re forced to study the neutron while it is still bound in the nucleus of an atom such as helium-3 (3He). For the last 1,000 years (rounding up), our group has developed high quality, polarized 3He targets made of an aluminosilicate glass. These targets are made in order to perform experiments at Jefferson Lab (JLab), experiments which let us determine the form factors and structure functions of the neutron by scattering polarized electrons from polarized neutrons (or rather polarized 3He). The specific experiments reported on in this thesis push the bounds of our understanding of the internal structure of the neutron. Good science is often about pushing experimental techniques to a new level. Toward that goal we study our polarized 3He targets both to advance the technology and to choose the best ones for our experiments. We do this using a process called nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) to gauge the maximum polarization of a target and how fast the polarization decays with time. While these tests primarily provide us information that make analysis of our experimental scattering data possible, they also let us determine whether or not a target-cell is useful or even, dare I say, of spectacular quality. Our latest targets utilize a novel convection design allowing 3He to be polarized and quickly moved in front of the electron-beam, making it possible to use larger targets with higher electron-beam currents than ever before. This means more electrons scatter and we get more data. And by studying our targets in detail prior to using them in our experiments, we have found techniques to take effects which could have been detrimental to target quality and turn them to our advantage! It?s a real case of making lemonade out of lemons. We also use laser spectroscopy to study the absorption lines of alkali-metals in the target (potassium and rubidium, specifically). We add these alkali-metals to our target to facilitate polarizing the 3He. We can use the measurement of these pressure broadened absorption lines to determine the 3He density inside of the target with great precision. Historically, we understood the width of these lines would be dependent on the temperature of the target. Specifically, if I raise the temperature, the width should get bigger. I found that was not the case, which was very confusing at first, though very exciting now that I realize the data are self-consistent and suggestive of unexpected behavior. This thesis details the development of high quality, glass, polarized 3He targets for the 2020 An 1 /dn 2 and 2023 Gn E experiments, which utilized the first 3He convection targets and broke records in target quality. This thesis also covers the initial development of metal windows for the next-generation of 3He target-cells. Finally, this thesis documents the temperature dependence of the width of potassium (K) and rubidium (Rb) absorption lines as measured with laser spectroscopy.

Jantzi, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2021

MolDiscovery: learning mass spectrometry fragmentation of small molecules

Identification of small molecules is a critical task in various areas of life science. Recent advances in mass spectrometry have enabled the collection of tandem mass spectra of small molecules from hundreds of thousands of environments. To identify which molecules are present in a sample, one can search mass spectra collected from the sample against millions of molecular structures in small molecule databases. The existing approaches are based on chemistry domain knowledge, and they fail to explain many of the peaks in mass spectra of small molecules. Here, we present molDiscovery, a mass spectral database search method that improves both efficiency and accuracy of small molecule identification by learning a probabilistic model to match small molecules with their mass spectra. A search of over 8 million spectra from the Global Natural Product Social molecular networking infrastructure shows that molDiscovery correctly identify six times more unique small molecules than previous methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HELPR Version 1.1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (HELPR) is a modular probabilistic fracture mechanics modeling platform developed to assess structural integrity of pipelines for transmission and distribution of hydrogen. HELPR couples fatigue and fracture engineering models with probabilistic methods to generate fast predictions and enables quantification of prediction uncertainty and sensitivity. This user manual serves as a guide through the various analysis features HELPR contains.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Contingency Analysis in Power Systems via Network Trigger Nodes

Modeling failure dynamics within a power system is a complex and challenging process due to multiple inter-dependencies and convoluted inter-domain relationships. Subject matter experts (SMEs) are interested in understanding these failure dynamics for reducing the impact from future disasters (i.e., losses or failures of power system components, such as transmission lines). Contingency analysis (CA) tools enable such ’what-if’ scenario analyses to evaluate the impacts on the power system. Analyzing all possible contingencies among N system components can be computationally expensive. An important step for performing CA is identifying a set of k ‘trigger’ components, which when failed initially can significantly impact the overall system by causing multiple failures. Currently SMEs focus on identifying these trigger components by running expensive simulations on all possible subsets, which quickly becomes infeasible. Hence finding a relevant set of trigger components (contingencies) rapidly to enable efficient and useful CA is crucial.In a collaboration between computer scientists and power system experts, we propose an efficient method for performing CA by exploiting network inter-dependencies in power system components. First, we construct a network with multiple electric grid infrastructure components and dependencies as connections among them. We reformulate the problem of finding a set of trigger components as a problem of identifying critical nodes in the network, which can cascade power failures through connected nodes and cause significant damage to the network. To guide the practical CA tools, we develop a network-based model with a probabilistic edge-weights setup using intricate domain rules. Then we conduct an empirical study on real power system data in the US for both regional and national levels. Firstly, we use power system datasets for the US to create a national-scale domain-driven model. Secondly, we demonstrate that network-based model outperforms the outputs from a real CA tool and show on average 25 × improved selection of contingencies, thereby showcasing practical benefits to the power experts.

Tabassum, Anika↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Learning Approach for Binary Optimization: Application to Bayesian Optimal Design of Experiments

Here, we present a novel stochastic approach to binary optimization suited for optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian inverse problems governed by mathematical models such as partial differential equations. The OED utility function, namely, the regularized optimality criterion, is cast into a stochastic objective function in the form of an expectation over a multivariate Bernoulli distribution. The probabilistic objective is then solved by using a stochastic optimization routine to find an optimal observational policy. This formulation (a) is generally applicable to binary optimization problems with soft constraints and is ideal for OED and sensor placement problems; (b) does not require differentiability of the original objective function (e.g., a utility function in OED applications) with respect to the design variable, and thus it enables direct employment of sparsity-enforcing penalty functions such as $\ell_0$, without needing to utilize a continuation procedure or apply a rounding technique; (c) exhibits much lower computational cost than traditional gradient-based relaxation approaches; and (d) can be applied to both linear and nonlinear OED problems with proper choice of the utility function. The proposed approach is analyzed from an optimization perspective with detailed convergence analysis of the optimization approach and is also analyzed from a machine learning perspective with correspondence to policy gradient reinforcement learning. The approach is demonstrated numerically by using an idealized two-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problem and validated by extensive numerical experiments carried out for sensor placement in a parameter identification setup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

METACLUSTER—an R package for context-specific expression analysis of metabolic gene clusters

Abstract Summary Plants and microbes produce numerous compounds to cope with their environments but the biosynthetic pathways for most of these compounds have yet to be elucidated. Some biosynthetic pathways are encoded by enzymes collocated in the chromosome. To facilitate a more comprehensive condition and tissue-specific expression analysis of metabolic gene clusters, we developed METACLUSTER, a probabilistic framework for characterizing metabolic gene clusters using context-specific gene expression information. Availability and implementation METACLUSTER is freely available at https://github.com/mbanf/METACLUSTER. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Intervention Assessment and Attribution

Focal Area(s): To ensure the US is positioned to scientifically attribute noncooperative climate interventions, we propose developing a foundational analytical framework for increased confidence in the assessment and attribution of observed changes in the climate. This framework will enable probabilistic attribution of prospective climate interventions. The target is to glean insight from complex Earth system data (Focal Area 3) by using AI to develop a prediction system comprised of a hierarchy of models (Focal Area 2).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOMATIC GENERATION OF EVENT TREES AND FAULT TREES: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH

In the past few decades, increasing complexity in modern engineering systems has been driven by the integration of a large number of components and by the fact that the system operations involve many disciplines (e.g., thermal-hydraulics, plant operations, cyber-security). Current safety/reliability modeling approaches to such systems are labor intensive, difficult to learn, and rely heavily on simplistic Boolean logic to depict failure propagation and accident progression. While these methods serve well for simple systems (i.e., linear causal systems with limited small inter- and intra-system interactions), their results are difficult to verify when modeling complex systems (typically performed through the extensive use of modeling assumptions). The development of new methods is addressed to meet these challenges through a model-based system engineering (MBSE) lens. Under MBSE philosophy, every aspect of the system (form or function) is represented by a model that completely characterizes its architecture or behavior. MBSE approach greatly improves the management of design, analysis and verification of complex systems. An integration of Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) methods with MBSE models is proposed to perform safety/reliability analyses of engineering systems. In particular, MBSE representation of the system (performed using Systems Modeling Language [SysML]) is coupled with DPRA methods to automatically generate event trees and fault trees.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesizing realistic sand assemblies with denoising diffusion in latent space

Abstract The shapes and morphological features of grains in sand assemblies have far‐reaching implications in many engineering applications, such as geotechnical engineering, computer animations, petroleum engineering, and concentrated solar power. Yet, our understanding of the influence of grain geometries on macroscopic response is often only qualitative, due to the limited availability of high‐quality 3D grain geometry data. In this paper, we introduce a denoising diffusion algorithm that uses a set of point clouds collected from the surface of individual sand grains to generate grains in the latent space. By employing a point cloud autoencoder, the three‐dimensional point cloud structures of sand grains are first encoded into a lower‐dimensional latent space. A generative denoising diffusion probabilistic model is trained to produce synthetic sand that maximizes the log‐likelihood of the generated samples belonging to the original data distribution measured by a Kullback‐Leibler divergence. Numerical experiments suggest that the proposed method is capable of generating realistic grains with morphology, shapes and sizes consistent with the training data inferred from an F50 sand database. We then use a rigid contact dynamic simulator to pour the synthetic sand in a confined volume to form granular assemblies in a static equilibrium state with targeted distribution properties. To ensure third‐party validation, 50,000 synthetic sand grains and the 1542 real synchrotron microcomputed tomography (SMT) scans of the F50 sand, as well as the granular assemblies composed of synthetic sand grains are made available in an open‐source repository.

Vlassis, Nikolaos N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum subspace expansion in the presence of hardware noise

Finding ground state energies on current quantum processing units (QPUs) using algorithms such as the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) continues to pose challenges. Hardware noise severely affects both the expressivity and trainability of parameterized quantum circuits, limiting them to shallow depths in practice. Here, we demonstrate that both issues can be addressed by synergistically integrating VQE with a quantum subspace expansion, allowing for an optimal balance between quantum and classical computing capabilities and costs. We perform a systematic benchmark analysis of the iterative quantum-assisted eigensolver in the presence of hardware noise. We determine ground state energies of 1D and 2D mixed-field Ising spin models on noisy simulators and the IBM QPUs ibmq_quito (5 qubits) and ibmq_guadalupe (16 qubits). To maximize accuracy, we propose a suitable criterion to select the subspace basis vectors according to the trace of the noisy overlap matrix. Finally, we show how to systematically approach the exact solution by performing controlled quantum error mitigation based on probabilistic error reduction on the noisy backend fake_guadalupe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Distributed-memory Triangle Counting by Exploiting the Graph Structure

Graphs are ubiquitous in modeling complex systems and representing interactions between entities to uncover structural information of the domain. Traditionally, graph analytics workloads are challenging to efficiently scale (both strong and weak cases) on distributed memory due to the irregular memory-access driven nature (with little or no computations) of the methods. The structure of graphs and their relative distribution over the processing elements poses another level of complexity, making it difficult to attain sustainable scalability across platforms. In this paper, we discuss enhancements to TriC, a distributed-memory implementation of graph triangle counting using Message Passing Interface (MPI), which was featured in the 2020 Graph Challenge competition. We have made some incremental enhancements to TriC, primarily adopting a user-defined buffering strategy to overcome the startup problem for large graphs (by fixing the memory for intermediate data), and experimenting with probabilistic data structures such as bloom filter to improve the query response time for assessing edge existence, at the expense of increasing the overall false positive rate. These adjustments have led to a modest improvements in most cases, as compared to the previous version.

Graph Analytics, HPC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Preliminary Results on Applying Nonparametric Clustering and Bayesian Consensus Clustering Methods to Multimodal Data

In this report, we present preliminary research into nonparametric clustering methods for multi-source imagery data and quantifying the performance of these models. In many domain areas, data sets do not necessarily follow well-defined and well-known probability distributions, such as the normal, gamma, and exponential. This is especially true when combining data from multiple sources describing a common set of objects (which we call multimodal analysis), where the data in each source can follow different distributions and need to be analyzed in conjunction with one another. This necessitates nonparametric density estimation methods, which allow the data to better dictate the distribution of the data. One prominent example of multimodal analysis is multimodal image analysis, when we analyze multiple images taken using different radar systems of the same scene of interest. We develop uncertainty analysis methods, which are inherent in the use of probabilistic models but often not taken advance of, to assess the performance of probabilistic clustering methods used for analyzing multimodal images. This added information helps assess model performance and how much trust decision-makers should have in the obtained analysis results. The developed methods illustrate some ways in which uncertainty can inform decisions that arise when designing and using machine learning models.

42 ENGINEERING↗