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At least 451 records · Page 25

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NASA NTRS2016

Risk-Hedged Approach for Re-Routing Air Traffic Under Weather Uncertainty

This presentation corresponds to: our paper explores a new risk-hedged approach for re-routing air traffic around forecast convective weather. In this work, flying through a more likely weather instantiation is considered to pose a higher level of risk. Current operational practice strategically plans re-routes to avoid only the most likely (highest risk) weather instantiation, and then tactically makes any necessary adjustments as the weather evolves. The risk-hedged approach strategically plans re-routes by minimizing the risk-adjusted path length, incorporating multiple possible weather instantiations with associated likelihoods (risks). The resulting model is transparent and is readily analyzed for realism and treated with well-understood shortest-path algorithms. Risk-hedged re-routes are computed for some example weather instantiations. The main result is that in some scenarios, relative to an operational-practice proxy solution, the risk-hedged solution provides the benefits of lower risk as well as shorter path length. In other scenarios, the benefits of the risk-hedged solution are ambiguous, because the solution is characterized by a tradeoff between risk and path length. The risk-hedged solution can be executed in those scenarios where it provides a clear benefit over current operational practice.

air traffic routing↗

NASA NTRS1979

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding the Impact of Unobservable Variables on the Performance of Predictive Models: The Need for Feature Space Partitioning and Fusion

When developing predictive models over a dataset, the model is globally optimized across the entire feature space to learn a decision boundary. However, when unobservable variables—which cannot be measured or estimated—interact with the observable variables, this can negatively impact the optimization applied to the decision boundary since the data samples introduced by unobservable variables may have little to no association with the applied global optimization. This, consequently, penalizes the entire decision boundary and model performance. This paper examines some of the detrimental effects of unobservable variables, particularly their role in creating new modes in the distribution of observable variables and reducing the separability of class distributions. Such challenges result in skewed or warped decision boundaries and decreased accuracy of model predictions, particularly for interpretable models like logistic regression and decision trees. Through two illustrative case examples, we highlight the need to address the challenges imposed by unobservable variables. We propose a strategy to mitigate these challenges by creating local regions within the feature space through partitioning. This enables the optimization of local models within the regions to overcome the impact of unobservability in different feature space localities. Research into a more sophisticated partitioning strategy and where the partition should be relative to the sample of interest is left as future work. Through the analysis of the impact of unobservability and the development of a partitioning method, we demonstrate the clear need for a partitioning strategy that integrates knowledge from multiple local models to estimate risk factors using information fusion. Thus, we establish the foundation and motivation for using partitioning and information fusion to overcome the effects of unobservability in predictive models. Formal fusion methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory, can better leverage the information from local regions to improve the performance of interpretable predictive models in the presence of unobservable variables.

Time Series Data↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deep Space Radiation Affects Neurovascular Functions in Human Organ-on-a-Chip Models

A major health risk for human deep space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by galactic cosmic ray radiation. Simulated galactic cosmic rays or their components, especially the high- linear energy transfer (LET) particles such as 56 Fe ions, cause CNS damage, neuroinflammation and cognitive dysfunction in rodent models, but their effects on human CNS remain to be investigated. CNS damage from any insult, including ionizing radiation, is partially mediated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which regulates the interactions between CNS and the rest of the body. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuronal health and neuroinflammation. However, there have been few studies on BBB and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses, especially in human tissue/organ analogs. Therefore, we utilized a high-throughput human 3D organ-on-a-chip system, seeded with induced pluripotent stem cell-derived endothelial cells, astrocytes and neurons, to study human neurovascular responses to simulated deep space radiation. We investigated BBB permeability, oxidative stress, cellular and tissue damage, and secreted factors over the time period of 24 hours-1 week after irradiation with 0.25-0.5 Gy 5-ion simplified simulated galactic cosmic rays and 0.3-0.8 Gy high-LET 600MeV/n 56 Fe particles, and compared the outcomes to low-LET irradiation with 0.1-1 Gy doses of X-rays and gamma rays. Both high and low-LET radiation increased neurovascular permeability, caused oxidative stress, damaged endothelial cells and tight junctions, and altered expression of inflammatory cytokines. Ionizing radiation- induced neurovascular permeability and oxidative stress peaked at 3 days after irradiation and were further exacerbated by the presence of astrocytes. Furthermore, in response to particle irradiation, astrocytes stimulated interleukin-1 signaling by inhibiting the expression of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist. Thus, we also evaluated interleukin-1 receptor antagonist as a potential countermeasure against particle radiation. Ultimately, our results may help develop countermeasures to mitigate human CNS damage in deep space exploration.

Sonali D Verma↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Neurovascular Responses to Simulated Deep Space Radiation in a Human Organ-on-a-Chip Model

A major health risk for human deep space exploration is central nervous system (CNS) damage by galactic cosmic ray radiation. Simulated galactic cosmic rays or their components, especially the high-linear energy transfer (LET) particles such as 56Fe ions, have been shown to cause CNS damage, neuroinflammation and cognitive dysfunction in rodent models, but their effects on human CNS remain to be investigated. CNS damage from any insult, including ionizing radiation, is partially mediated by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which regulates interactions between CNS and the rest of the body. The main cellular regulators of BBB permeability are astrocytes, which also modulate neuroinflammation. However, there have been few studies on BBB and astrocyte functions in regulating CNS responses, especially in human tissue analogs. Therefore, we utilized a high-throughput 3D organ-on-a-chip system, seeded with human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived astrocytes and brain endothelial cells, or brain endothelial cells alone, to study human neurovascular responses to simulated deep space radiation. We investigated the permeability and morphology of vascular structures formed by endothelial cells, as well as oxidative stress and secreted cytokines and chemokine levels over 1-7 days after irradiation with 0.25 – 0.5 Gy 5-ion simplified simulated galactic cosmic rays or 0.3 – 0.8 Gy high-LET 600 MeV/n 56Fe particles, and compared the outcomes to low-LET X-ray irradiation. We observed that simulated deep space radiation caused delayed astrocyte activation in a pattern resembling CNS responses to brain injury, caused oxidative stress and the production of inflammatory cytokines, and compromised BBB integrity by damaging tight junctions, thus increasing vascular permeability. Furthermore, our results indicate that astrocytes have a dual role in regulating radiation responses: they exacerbate blood-brain barrier permeability early after irradiation, followed by switching to a more protective scar-like phenotype by reducing oxidative stress and pro-inflammatory cytokine and chemokine secretion. In a follow-up study using the same platform, we investigated the dose-rate effects of ionizing radiation, by exposing our model to chronic, low dose-rate, gamma radiation. Our model was significantly improved by adding additional cell types composing the BBB, modelling immune cell infiltration into the brain, and studying the effect of an antioxidant, to measure more complex outcomes and model more closely the effect of deep space radiation on the human BBB. In summary, our results present a human neurovascular model for space radiation studies and potential future automated payload adaptation, and suggest astrocyte regulatory mechanisms as targets for countermeasures to mitigate human neurovascular impairments during deep space exploration.

Ionizing radiation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Internet Based Simulations of Debris Dispersion of Shuttle Launch

The debris dispersion model (which dispersion model?) is so heterogeneous and interrelated with various factors, 3D graphics combined with physical models are useful in understanding the complexity of launch and range operations. Modeling and simulation in this area mainly focuses on orbital dynamics and range safety concepts, including destruct limits, telemetry and tracking, and population risk. Particle explosion modeling is the process of simulating an explosion by breaking the rocket into many pieces. The particles are scattered throughout their motion using the laws of physics eventually coming to rest. The size of the foot print explains the type of explosion and distribution of the particles. The shuttle launch and range operations in this paper are discussed based on the operations of the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA. Java 3D graphics provides geometric and visual content with suitable modeling behaviors of Shuttle launches.

Bardina, Jorge↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

human errors.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Near-Earth Meteoroid Flux, Speed Distribution, and Uncertainty

Meteoroids are known to pose a threat to spacecraft; they can puncture components, disturb spacecraft attitude, and possibly create secondary electrical effects. Accurate environment models are therefore critical for mitigating meteoroid-related risks. While there are several meteoroid environment models available for assessing spacecraft risk, the uncertainties associated with these models are not well understood. Because meteoroid properties are derived from indirect observations such as meteors and impact craters, the uncertainty in the meteoroid flux is potentially quite large. We combine existing meteoroid flux measurements with new radar and optical meteor data to improve our characterization of the meteoroid flux onto the Earth and its velocity distribution. We use data extracted from the NASA all-sky network, the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory, and the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar. We improve our characterization of the observed meteoroid speed distribution by incorporating modern descriptions of the ionization efficiency (e.g., Thomas et al., 2016). We also present estimates of the uncertainties associated with our meteoroid flux distribution. Finally, we discuss the implications for spacecraft. Our model is constrained by the cratering rate on the space-facing surface of LDEF, and thus the risk posed to spacecraft by meteoroid-induced physical damage is the least uncertain component of our model. Other sources of risk, however, may vary. For instance, a lower average meteoroid speed would require a higher meteoroid mass flux in order to match the LDEF crater counts, leading to higher predicted rates of attitude disturbances.

Moorhead, Althea↗

NASA NTRS2000

Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) Special Case Study Report: Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) Program

This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.

Kirsch, Paul J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Computational Simulations and the Scientific Method

As scientific simulation software becomes more complicated, the scientific-software implementor's need for component tests from new model developers becomes more crucial. The community's ability to follow the basic premise of the Scientific Method requires independently repeatable experiments, and model innovators are in the best position to create these test fixtures. Scientific software developers also need to quickly judge the value of the new model, i.e., its cost-to-benefit ratio in terms of gains provided by the new model and implementation risks such as cost, time, and quality. This paper asks two questions. The first is whether other scientific software developers would find published component tests useful, and the second is whether model innovators think publishing test fixtures is a feasible approach.

Kleb, Bil↗

NASA NTRS2015

Forward Bay Cover Separation Modeling and Testing for the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

Spacecraft multi-body separation events during atmospheric descent require complex testing and analysis to validate the flight separation dynamics models used to verify no re-contact. The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) architecture includes a highly-integrated Forward Bay Cover (FBC) jettison assembly design that combines parachutes and piston thrusters to separate the FBC from the Crew Module (CM) and avoid re-contact. A multi-disciplinary team across numerous organizations examined key model parameters and risk areas to develop a robust but affordable test campaign in order to validate and verify the FBC separation event for Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1). The FBC jettison simulation model is highly complex, consisting of dozens of parameters varied simultaneously, with numerous multi-parameter interactions (coupling and feedback) among the various model elements, and encompassing distinct near-field, mid-field, and far-field regimes. The test campaign was composed of component-level testing (for example gas-piston thrusters and parachute mortars), ground FBC jettison tests, and FBC jettison air-drop tests that were accomplished by a highly multi-disciplinary team. Three ground jettison tests isolated the testing of mechanisms and structures to anchor the simulation models excluding aerodynamic effects. Subsequently, two air-drop tests added aerodynamic and parachute elements, and served as integrated system demonstrations, which had been preliminarily explored during the Orion Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) flight test in May 2010. Both ground and drop tests provided extensive data to validate analytical models and to verify the FBC jettison event for EFT-1. Additional testing will be required to support human certification of this separation event, for which NASA and Lockheed Martin are applying knowledge from Apollo and EFT-1 testing and modeling to develop a robust human-rated FBC separation event.

Ali, Yasmin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Improvements to Impact for Long Duration Exploration Spaceflight

BACKGROUND: While NASA currently uses the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to model spaceflight medical risk for Low Earth Orbit missions, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) was created to improve the fidelity of medical risk analysis for exploration missions involving the Lunar surface and beyond. OVERVIEW: While completion work continues on the initial version of the IMPACT tool, work has already begun to investigate ways to further enhance the fidelity of the model and its utility to stakeholders. DISCUSSION: Future additions leveraging the more robust and flexible IMPACT architecture include analyzing mission segments to account for segment-specific environments (ie. Lunar surface or microgravity), clinically tracible outcomes based on partial treatment of conditions, the ability to model mission outcomes based on provider Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities (KSAs), and the ability to affect the incidence of conditions based on the occurrence of related conditions (e.g. UTI progressing to sepsis). IMPACT also enables the addition of new conditions to its database as required to meet future risk assessment needs. Ultimately, the desire is to broaden IMPACT from a tool that models/trades medical risk to one that does so for all crew health and performance relevant systems (e.g., food, exercise, etc.).

E Stratton↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling the Space Debris Environment with MASTER-2009 and ORDEM2010

Spacecraft analysis using ORDEM2010 uses a high-fidelity population model to compute risk to on-orbit assets. The ORDEM2010 GUI allows visualization of spacecraft flux in 2-D and 1-D. The population was produced using a Bayesian statistical approach with measured and modeled environment data. Validation of sizes < 1mm were performed using Shuttle window and radiator impact measurements. Validation of sizes > 1mm is on-going.

Flegel, S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Epidemiologic and Environmental Risk Factors of Rift Valley Fever in Southern Africa from 2008 to 2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have been associated with periods of widespread and above normal rainfall over several months. Knowledge on the environmental factors influencing disease transmission dynamics has provided the basis for developing models to predict RVF outbreaks in Africa. From 2008 to 2011, South Africa experienced the worst wave of RVF outbreaks in almost 40 years. We investigated rainfall associated environmental factors in southern Africa preceding these outbreaks. Methods: RVF epizootic records obtained from the World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID), documenting livestock species affected, location, and time, were analyzed. Environmental variables including rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were collected and assessed in outbreak regions to understand the underlying drivers of the outbreaks. Results: The predominant domestic vertebrate species affected in 2008 and 2009 were cattle, when outbreaks were concentrated in the eastern provinces of South Africa. In 2010 and 2011, outbreaks occurred in the interior and southern provinces affecting over 16,000 sheep. The highest number of cases occurred between January and April but epidemics occurred in different regions every year, moving from the northeast of South Africa toward the southwest with each progressing year. The outbreaks showed a pattern of increased rainfall preceding epizootics ranging from 9 to 152 days; however, NDVI and rainfall were less correlated with the start of the outbreaks than has been observed in eastern Africa. Conclusions: Analyses of the multiyear RVF outbreaks of 2008 to 2011 in South Africa indicated that rainfall, NDVI, and other environmental and geographical factors, such as land use, drainage, and topography, play a role in disease emergence. Current and future investigations into these factors will be able to contribute to improving spatial accuracy of models to map risk areas, allowing adequate time for preparation and prevention before an outbreak occurs.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF)↗

NASA NTRS2006

Qualification and Issues with Space Flight Laser Systems and Components

The art of flight quality solid-state laser development is still relatively young, and much is still unknown regarding the best procedures, components, and packaging required for achieving the maximum possible lifetime and reliability when deployed in the harsh space environment. One of the most important issues is the limited and unstable supply of quality, high power diode arrays with significant technological heritage and market lifetime. Since Spectra Diode Labs Inc. ended their involvement in the pulsed array business in the late 1990's, there has been a flurry of activity from other manufacturers, but little effort focused on flight quality production. This forces NASA, inevitably, to examine the use of commercial parts to enable space flight laser designs. System-level issues such as power cycling, operational derating, duty cycle, and contamination risks to other laser components are some of the more significant unknown, if unquantifiable, parameters that directly effect transmitter reliability. Designs and processes can be formulated for the system and the components (including thorough modeling) to mitigate risk based on the known failures modes as well as lessons learned that GSFC has collected over the past ten years of space flight operation of lasers. In addition, knowledge of the potential failure modes related to the system and the components themselves can allow the qualification testing to be done in an efficient yet, effective manner. Careful test plan development coupled with physics of failure knowledge will enable cost effect qualification of commercial technology. Presented here will be lessons learned from space flight experience, brief synopsis of known potential failure modes, mitigation techniques, and options for testing from the system level to the component level.

Ott, Melanie N.↗