Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Using Imprint Human Performance Models to Inform Crew Size

HUMANS TO MARS, BUT HOW MANY? USING IMPRINT HUMAN PERFORMANCE MODELS TO INFORM CREW SIZE Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for future missions. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew. The custom-built crew expertise model results will be presented in the training sub-tag. Here we present results of the three IMPRINT models. Two of these models were built using IMPRINT’s Operations Model capability, with detailed task networks for specific systems and scenarios allowing for a comprehensive mental workload analysis on certain crew positions. The third model was built using IMPRINT’s Force Model capability, allowing for a higher-level manpower analysis based on crew engagement in activities performed over a longer Mars transit scenario, and how those activities may be impacted by unplanned events and new tasking unique to the Mars mission. Differences between the models will be presented, as well as examples of model results and a discussion of how those results may inform future Mars mission manpower requirements, system design, and operating procedures.

Donna L Dempsey↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead-observed temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260degreesF (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260 degrees F (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

process-based modeling↗
NASA NTRS2006

Processing of Space Resources to Enable the Vision for Space Exploration

The NASA human exploration program as directed by the Vision for Exploration (G.W. Bush, Jan. 14,2004) includes developing methods to process materials on the Moon and beyond to enable safe and affordable human exploration. Processing space resources was first popularized (O Neill 1976) as a technically viable, economically feasible means to build city sized habitats and multi GWatt solar power satellites in Earth/Moon space. Although NASA studies found the concepts to be technically reasonable in the post Apollo era (AMES 1979), the front end costs the limits of national or corporate investment. In the last decade analysis of space on has shown it to be economically justifiable even on a relatively small mission or commercial scenario basis. The Mars Reference Mission analysis (JSC 1997) demonstrated that production of return propellant on Mars can enable an order of magnitude decrease in the costs of human Mars missions. Analysis (by M. Duke 2003) shows that production of propellant on the Moon for the Earth based satellite industries can be commercially viable after a human lunar base is established. Similar economic analysis (Rapp 2005) also shows large cost benefits for lunar propellant production for Mars missions and for the use of lunar materials for the production of photovoltaic power (Freundlich 2005). Recent technologies could enable much smaller initial costs, to achieve mass, energy, and life support self sufficiency, than were achievable in the 1970s. If the Exploration Vision program is executed with a front end emphasis on space resources, it could provide a path for human self reliance beyond Earth orbit. This path can lead to an open, non-zero-sum, future for humanity with safer human competition with limitless growth potential. This paper discusses extension of the analysis for space resource utilization, to determine the minimum systems necessary for human self sufficiency and growth off Earth. Such a approach can provide a more compelling and comprehensive path to space resource utilization.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS1986

Spectra of noise and amplified turbulence emanating from shock-turbulence interaction: Two scenarios

This work is a small extension of NACA studies of the early fifties that predicted amplification of turbulence on passing through a shock wave (observed for turbulent boundary layers), as well as the generation of intense noise (observed for supersonic jets). The first solved the basic gasdynamics problem of the interaction of an infinite planar shock with a single three-dimensional spectrum component of turbulence (an oblique sinusoidal shear wave). The second developed the comprehensive 3D spectrum analysis necessary to generalize the scenario to the interaction of a shock wave with convected homogeneous turbulence. Numerical calculations were carried out to yield curves (vs. Mach number) of rms sound pressure, temperature fluctuation, and two components of turbulent velocity downstream of the shock, for two cases of preshock turbulence. The present numerical study reproduces these for one case and provides in addition their one-dimensional power spectra (vs. wavenumber or frequency). Ratios of the several postshock spectra to the longitudinal preshock turbulence spectrum (1D) have been computed for a wide range of Mach numbers; curves vs. wavenumber are presented for two scenarios of preshock turbulence: isotropy and axisymmetry, both based on the von Karman 3D spectrum.

Ribner, H. S.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational Thermal Hydraulics of a High-Performance Low-Enriched-Uranium Annular Target for HFIR Irradiation

Molybdenum-99 has historically been generated via isolation from fissioned highly enriched uranium (HEU) targets. Here, this isotope is in high demand due to its daily use across the world in radiopharmaceutical medical procedures. The primary objective of this work was to design and analyze an experimental target assembly containing one low-enriched-uranium (LEU) annular target for irradiation at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Efforts included incorporating spatially dependent energy sources from neutron and gamma interactions, quantifying thermal contact conductance at material interfaces, performing grid-independent studies, comparing turbulence models, and simulating various steady-state and transient scenarios relevant for irradiation qualification and eventual insertion. These models provide velocity, pressure, and temperature distributions in both space and time. Such results enable the selection of an appropriate irradiation location, fission rate density, and flow-limiting orifice size and demonstrate compliance with HFIR safety requirements such that insertion into the reactor can be approved. This analysis shows that across all scenarios, wetted surface temperatures remain below the coolant saturation temperature with no net vapor formation in the coolant. In every scenario, all components stay below 30% of the aluminum 6061 melting temperature. Computational fluid dynamics and system-level models predict peak target temperatures that agree within 4%, though the predicted axial location of the peak differs by about 10% of the heated length due to differences in flow development length. These results de-risk the irradiation of LEU (annular targets) and strengthen a domestic, HEU-independent 99 Mo supply by providing important fuel performance data to form the foundation for a robust licensing basis.

Molybdenum-99↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Decarbonization Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Glass Manufacturing Sector

Glass manufacturing is a major part of the U.S. economy, and glass products in multiple sectors - flat glass, container glass, and fiberglass - are a part of everyday life. Despite glass manufacturing's long history, there are still many opportunities for glass production to improve in terms of both in overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. Scenarios for the flat, container, and fiberglass sectors show the effect that each improvement has on primary energy demand and GHG emissions, starting from an industry baseline that reflects current manufacturing practices. Using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Material Flows through Industry tool, multiple scenarios are examined for each glass sector by applying a combination of energy reduction, increased electrification, hydrogen cofiring, a more renewable electric grid, and increased use of cullet. Additional decarbonization options are possible for glass but are left for later analysis due to cost, feasibility, or data issues. Primary energy demand can be reduced by 75%-83% compared to baseline inputs, depending on the sector, and GHG emissions are reduced by 82%-86%. Applying the maximum level of improvements listed here has the potential to save over 300 million GJ and 25 million metric tons of GHGs by 2050.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of Hydrogen Rail Maintenance Facility Hazards

Maintenance facilities for hydrogen rail, the activities conducted within such facilities, and how these activities differ from ordinary rail or hydrogen vehicle maintenance are currently being considered for the hazards specific to hydrogen. By performing a hazard and operability study (HAZOP) on numerous potential maintenance and repair scenarios, select low, medium, and high risk hazards relevant to hydrogen rail systems in such environments have been identified. The analysis resulted in 79 unique HAZOP scenarios: one scenario in the high risk category, 43 in the medium risk category, and 35 in the low risk category. Notably, large accidental releases of hydrogen due to tank rupture, aberrant defueling processes, or relief device opening within a facility are important low likelihood consequences that should nevertheless be appropriately prevented and mitigated.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2000

Full Duplex, Spread Spectrum Radio System

The goal of this project was to support the development of a full duplex, spread spectrum voice communications system. The assembly and testing of a prototype system consisting of a Harris PRISM spread spectrum radio, a TMS320C54x signal processing development board and a Zilog Z80180 microprocessor was underway at the start of this project. The efforts under this project were the development of multiple access schemes, analysis of full duplex voice feedback delays, and the development and analysis of forward error correction (FEC) algorithms. The multiple access analysis involved the selection between code division multiple access (CDMA), frequency division multiple access (FDMA) and time division multiple access (TDMA). Full duplex voice feedback analysis involved the analysis of packet size and delays associated with full loop voice feedback for confirmation of radio system performance. FEC analysis included studies of the performance under the expected burst error scenario with the relatively short packet lengths, and analysis of implementation in the TMS320C54x digital signal processor. When the capabilities and the limitations of the components used were considered, the multiple access scheme chosen was a combination TDMA/FDMA scheme that will provide up to eight users on each of three separate frequencies. Packets to and from each user will consist of 16 samples at a rate of 8,000 samples per second for a total of 2 ms of voice information. The resulting voice feedback delay will therefore be 4 - 6 ms. The most practical FEC algorithm for implementation was a convolutional code with a Viterbi decoder. Interleaving of the bits of each packet will be required to offset the effects of burst errors.

Harvey, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

SimSup's Loop: A Control Theory Approach to Spacecraft Operator Training

Immersive simulation is a staple of training for many complex system operators, including astronauts and ground operators of spacecraft. However, while much has been written about simulators, simulation facilities, and operator certification programs, the topic of how one develops simulation scenarios to train a spacecraft operator is relatively understated in the literature. In this paper, an approach is presented for using control theory as the basis for developing the immersive simulation scenarios for a spacecraft operator training program. The operator is effectively modeled as a high level controller of lower level hardware and software control loops that affect a select set of system state variables. Simulation scenarios are derived from a STAMP-based hazard analysis of the operator's high and low level control loops. The immersive simulation aspect of the overall training program is characterized by selecting a set of scenarios that expose the operator to the various inadequate control actions that stem from control flaws and inadequate control executions in the different sections of the typical control loop. Results from the application of this approach to the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) mission are provided through an analysis of the simulation scenarios used for operator training and the actual anomalies that occurred during the mission. The simulation scenarios and inflight anomalies are mapped to specific control flaws and inadequate control executions in the different sections of the typical control loop to illustrate the characteristics of anomalies arising from the different sections of the typical control loop (and why it is important for operators to have exposure to these characteristics). Additionally, similarities between the simulation scenarios and inflight anomalies are highlighted to make the case that the simulation scenarios prepared the operators for the mission.

LADEE↗
NASA NTRS1980

Spatial frequency response of an optical heterodyne receiver

The analysis of a passive heterodyne receiver with respect to its imaging performance (transfer function) and its heterodyne efficiency shows departures from the results which are obtained in strictly coherent or incoherent imaging systems. The cascading property of modulation transfer function analysis must be carefully applied, since the coherent transfer function of the optical receiver and that due to the local oscillator-detector combination are not separable but are related by the convolution of their products. Application of these results to a spacelab-type optical heterodyne receiver shows that resolutions of the order of 1.5 to 2.0 km are possible for worst-case type orbital scenarios. In addition to an analysis of the derogatory effects of sampling (aliasing) a comparison of obscured-type receivers (e.g., Cassegrains) with unobscured receivers shows that both resolution and efficiency are severly degraded in an obscured-type receiver and, consequently, should not be used for passive heterodyne detection schemes.

Robinson, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Computational Support for Technology- Investment Decisions

Strategic Assessment of Risk and Technology (START) is a user-friendly computer program that assists human managers in making decisions regarding research-and-development investment portfolios in the presence of uncertainties and of non-technological constraints that include budgetary and time limits, restrictions related to infrastructure, and programmatic and institutional priorities. START facilitates quantitative analysis of technologies, capabilities, missions, scenarios and programs, and thereby enables the selection and scheduling of value-optimal development efforts. START incorporates features that, variously, perform or support a unique combination of functions, most of which are not systematically performed or supported by prior decision- support software. These functions include the following: Optimal portfolio selection using an expected-utility-based assessment of capabilities and technologies; Temporal investment recommendations; Distinctions between enhancing and enabling capabilities; Analysis of partial funding for enhancing capabilities; and Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. START can run on almost any computing hardware, within Linux and related operating systems that include Mac OS X versions 10.3 and later, and can run in Windows under the Cygwin environment. START can be distributed in binary code form. START calls, as external libraries, several open-source software packages. Output is in Excel (.xls) file format.

Adumitroaie, Virgil↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Pilot-scale Study and Techno-economic Analysis of Chemical Heat Pump with Conventional Nuclear Reactors

The energy economy is continually evolving, particularly in terms of primary energy sources, their conversions to useful forms such as electricity and heat, and their utilization in different sectors, in response to socio-political factors. Because nuclear source is clean and non-carbon-emitting energy source, it is crucial to consider its role in the evolution of the energy economy. A pilot-scale study was conducted for Chemical Heat Pump (ChHP) system at three different scales (25-, 100-, and 1000-kW thermal outputs) using steady state thermal model. To establish the viability of selling heat rather than electricity alone, techno-economic analysis was undertaken for advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR), and SMR paired with varied thermal output ChHP systems was referred to as the nuclear hybrid energy system (NHES) in this study. Using the U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, pricing for electricity and natural gas were anticipated for U.S. regions (California, Northwest, Midwest, Southwest, New England, and PJM). Based on thermal output from ChHP, advanced SMR with 100 MWth and four alternative NHES scenarios were explored, namely 50-, 10-, 5-, and 1-MWth. Net present value, payback period, discounted cash flow return, and levelized cost of energy were evaluated for all scenarios. Based on the economic analysis, selling heat to high-temperature industrial processes is more profitable compared to selling electricity only. Higher carbon taxes showed significant improvement in economic parameters for NHESs. Providing heat to high-temperature industries could be beneficial, helping to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions by slashing the fossil fuel consumption.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated compatibility checking of prefabricated components using 3D as-built models and BIM

There have been recent efforts to use reality capture technologies to perform remote quality control in construction. However, there is a lack of research efforts in detecting construction incompatibilities in modular construction using reality capture technologies. The construction incompatibilities in modular construction often cause reworks and delays in the project schedule. To address this issue, this paper presents a general compatibility analysis method that propose scanning the modules in manufacturing plant and construction site, and check module-to-module compatibility remotely, prior to the shipment and installation. This study provides three sample module-to-module compatibility scenarios to validate the proposed compatibility analysis. The case study results show that the compatibility analysis method was able to identify the compatibility issues with high accuracy. Lastly, the compatibility analysis method was validated in terms of accuracy and time performance in six scenarios that was defined on the modules.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

CELSS transportation analysis

The results of a study conducted in order to estimate where potential transportation cost savings can be anticipated by using CELSS technology for selected future manned space missions, are presented. Six manned missions ranging from a low earth orbit mission to those associated with asteroids and a Mars sortie are selected from NASA planning forecasts for study during an analysis of the transportation system. Several environmental control and life-support systems which are used in developing life-support closure scenarios are investigated for estimates of weight, volume, and power requirements. It is shown that when the scenarios are combined with the transportation analysis, mission life-support cost estimates are provided.

Olson, R. L.↗