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NASA NTRS2019

The State of Remote Sensing Capabilities of Cascading Hazards over High Mountain Asia

Cascading hazard processes refer to a primary trigger such as heavy rainfall, seismic activity, or snow melt, followed by a chain or web of consequences that can cause subsequent hazards influenced by a complex array of preconditions and vulnerabilities. These interact in multiple ways and can have tremendous impacts on populations proximate to or downstream of these initial triggers. High Mountain Asia (HMA) is extremely vulnerable to cascading hazard processes given the tectonic, geomorphologic, and climatic setting of the region, particularly as it relates to glacial lakes. Given the limitations of in situ surveys in steep and often inaccessible terrain, remote sensing data are a valuable resource for better understanding and quantifying these processes. The present work provides a survey of cascading hazard processes impacting HMA and how these can be characterized using remote sensing sources. We discuss how remote sensing products can be used to address these process chains, citing several examples of cascading hazard scenarios across HMA. This work also provides a perspective on the current gaps and challenges, community needs, and view forward towards improved characterization of evolving hazards and risk across HMA.

Glacial lake outburst floods↗

DOE OSTI2016

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Summary of NDC Capacity Building Workshop and Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) in combination with Data Sharing and Integration Training

The NNSA Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) sponsored Stephen Myers (LLNL), Michael Begnaud (LANL), Brian Young (SNL) and Istvan Bondar (Research Center for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungary) to serve as a presenters/trainers at the “NDC Capacity Building Workshop and Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) in combination with Data Sharing and Integration Training” September 4-8 2022 in Muscat, Oman (See Appendix A for the agenda). The workshop and training (workshop from here forward) was organized by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS). The first half of the week was devoted to NDC workshop activities, and the second half was devoted to RSTT training. Fifty-five participants from 27 countries and the CTBTO-PTS attended the 5-day workshop (See Appendix B for list of participants and countries of origin). Presentations from the PTS described the International Monitoring System (IMS), International Data Centre (IDC) products, and metrics of regional data utilization. Contributed presentations from each country’s scientists included descriptions of regional and national networks, methods of data analysis, and needs for material and technical assistance. Training included an overview of the RSTT method and instruction on how to locate seismic events with the iLoc program, which utilizes RSTT travel times to reduce bias in event location estimates. Methods of seismic tomography and the need for a high-quality tomographic set, including seismological “ground truth”, were emphasized. Seismological “ground truth” or “GT” is a term that has come to mean both events with known location and events with well-characterized locations that are estimated using seismological data, typically with epicenter accuracy of 5 km or better. Notably, the instructional platform has migrated from UNIX shell scripts to Jupyter Notebooks. Jupyter Notebooks have the advantage being more visually intuitive, including display of graphics within the notebook. Each notebook includes every processing step that participants need to reproduce the entire exercise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

A critical assessment of viscous models of trench topography and corner flow

Stresses for Newtonian viscous flow in a simple geometry (e.g., corner flow, bending flow) are obtained in order to study the effect of imposed velocity boundary conditions. Stress for a delta function velocity boundary condition decays as 1/R(2); for a step function velocity, stress goes as 1/R; for a discontinuity in curvature, the stress singularity is logarithmic. For corner flow, which has a discontinuity of velocity at a certain point, the corresponding stress has a 1/R singularity. However, for a more realistic circular-slab model, the stress singularity becomes logarithmic. Thus the stress distribution is very sensitive to the boundary conditions, and in evaluating the applicability of viscous models of trench topography it is essential to use realistic geometries. Topography and seismicity data from northern Hoshu, Japan, were used to construct a finite element model, with flow assumed tangent to the top of the grid, for both Newtonian and non-Newtonian flow (power law 3 rheology). Normal stresses at the top of the grid are compared to the observed trench topography and gravity anomalies. There is poor agreement. Purely viscous models of subducting slables with specified velocity boundary conditions do not predict normal stress patterns compatible with observed topography and gravity. Elasticity and plasticity appear to be important for the subduction process.

Zhang, J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A critical assessment of viscous models of trench topography and corner flow

Zhang, J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

1960 Chile - New estimate of polar motion excitation

A recent reanalysis of the International Latitude Serivce (ILS) polar motion data-day has been processed using Kalman filtering techniques to generate the polar motion excitation function over the time-span from 1960 to 1965. The resulting excitation function has been examined for the effects of 1960 Chile in an attempt to determine experimentally how large earthquake affect polar motion. The resulting upper bound of about 75 x 10 to the 22nd N-m for a 10-deg dip (about 36 x 10 to the 22nd N-m for 20-deg dip) is consistent with results obtained from previous seismic studies, including a recent normal mode excitation result. Following future great earthquakes, monitoring of polar motion by space-based techniques such as VLBI should continue at high temporal resolution for several weeks in order to directly measure the rheological parameters of the upper mantle.

Slade, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Application of Nonlinear Seismic Soil-Structure Interaction Analysis for Identification of Seismic Margins at Nuclear Power Plants

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) methods and approaches at nuclear power plants (NPP) were first developed in the 1970s and aspects of them have matured over time as they were applied and incrementally improved. SPRA provides information on risk and risk insights and allows for some accounting for uncertainty and variability. As a result, SPRA is now used as an important basis for risk-informed decision making for both new and operating NPPs in the US and in an increasing number of countries globally. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in some instances the current SPRA approach contains large uncertainties, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility). INL has an advanced SPRA research and development (R&D) activity that will identify areas in the calculation process that contain significant uncertainties. One current area of focus is the use of nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis methods to accurately capture: 1) nonlinear soil behavior and 2) gapping and sliding between the NPP and soil. The goal of this study is to compare numerical NLSSI analysis results with recorded earthquake ground motions at Fukushima Daichii (Great Tohuku Earthquake) and evaluate the sources of nonlinearity contributing to the observed reduction in peak acceleration. Comparisons are made using recorded data in the free-field (soil column with no structural influence) and recorded data on the NPP basemat (in-structure response). Results presented in this study should identify areas of focus for future R&D activities with the goal of minimizing uncertainty in SPRA calculations. This is not a validation activity since there are too many sources of uncertainty that a numerical analysis would need to consider (variability in soil material properties, structural material properties, etc.). Rather the report will determine if the NLSSI calculations are following similar trends observed in the recorded data (i.e. reductions in maximum acceleration between the free-field and basemat) Numerical NLSSI results presented show maximum accelerations between the free field and basemat were reduced the EW and NS directions. The maximum acceleration in the UD direction increased slightly. The largest reduction in maximum accelerations between the modeled free-field and the NPP basemat resulted in nearly 50% reduction. The observation in reduction of numerical maximum accelerations in the EW and NS directions follows the observed trend in the recorded data. The maximum reductions observed in these NLSSI studies were due to soil nonlinearities, not gapping and sliding (although additional R&D is needed to develop an appropriate approach to model gapping and sliding). This exploratory study highlights the need for additional R&D on developing: (i) improved modeling of soil nonlinearities (soil constitutive models that appropriately capture cyclic soil behavior), (ii) improved modeling of gapping and sliding at the soil-structure interface (to appropriately capture the dissipation of energy at this interface), and (iii) experimental laboratory test data to calibrate the items (i) and (ii).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Mitigation Strategy for the Prediction Inconsistency of Neural Phase Pickers

Neural phase pickers—neural networks designed and trained to pick seismic phase arrivals—have proven to be a powerful tool for developing earthquake catalogs. However, these pickers suffer from prediction inconsistency in which the results they produce change, sometimes substantially, even under a small perturbation to the input waveform. This problem has not been addressed by the developers and users of these pickers. In this study, we show how prediction inconsistency can negatively affect the completeness of earthquake catalogs developed using neural phase pickers. Further, we show that simply using a small step size for the sliding window when processing continuous waveform data and aggregating the results significantly mitigates this problem. We also highlight the importance of training datasets for increasing the consistency and other performance metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Recovery and calibration of legacy analog data from the Leo Brady Seismic Network for the Source Physics Experiment

The Leo Brady Seismic Network (LBSN) was established in 1960 by Sandia National Laboratories for monitoring underground nuclear tests (UGTs) at the Nevada Test Site— renamed in 2010 to the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The LBSN has been in various configurations throughout its existence, but it has been generally comprised of four to six stations at regional distances from the NNSS with evenly spaced azimuthal coverage. Between 1962 and the early 1980s, the LBSN—and a sister network operated by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory—were the most comprehensive U.S. source of regional seismic data of UGTs. During the pre-digital era, LBSN data were transmitted as frequency-modulated (FM) audio over telephone lines to the NTS and recorded in analog on hi-fi 8-track AMPEX tapes. These tapes have been stored in temperature-stable buildings or bunkers on the NNSS and Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque, NM for decades and contain the sole record of this irreplaceable data from the analog era; full waveforms of UGTs during this time were never routinely converted to digital form. We have been developing a process over the past few years to recover and calibrate data from these tapes, converting them from FM audio to digital waveforms in ground motion units. The calibration of legacy data from the LBSN is still ongoing. To date, we have digitized tapes from 592 separate UGTs. As a proof-of-concept, we calibrated data from the BOXCAR event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Hypocenter relocation using a fast grid search method and a 3-D seismic velocity model for the Sumatra region

Determination of earthquake hypocenter in Indonesia conducted by the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) has still used a 1-D seismic velocity model. In this research, we have applied a Fast Grid Search (FGM) method and a 3-D velocity model resulting from tomographic imaging to relocate earthquakes in the Sumatran region. The data were taken from the MCGA data catalog from 2009 to 2011 comprising of subduction zone and on land fault earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4 Mw. Our preliminary results show some significant changes in the depths of the relocated earthquakes which are in general deeper than the depths of hypocenters from the MCGA data catalog. The residual times resulting from the relocation process are smaller than those prior to the relocation. Encouraged by these results, we will continue to conduct hypocenter relocation for all events from the MCGA data catalog periodically in order to produce a new data catalog with good quality. We hope that the new data catalog will be useful for further studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1985

The next generation geophysical investigation of the moon

Planetary geophysics has mainly the objective to determine the structure, composition, and state of a given body and the relationship between internal processes and surface tectonic features. The moon represents an obvious initial case for application of geophysical techniques to bodies other than the earth. As a result of the Apollo program and associated scientific investigations, some initial progress was made toward geophysical exploration of the moon. The obtained results are briefly discussed, and some major unresolved issues are pointed out. The present status of lunar geophysical data sets is evaluated, taking into account the issues cited and the extent to which future orbital surveys and surface measurements may resolve the remaining problems. Attention is given to seismic data, electromagnetic sounding data, heat-flow data, gravity/topography data, and paleomagnetic data.

Hood, L. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: Direct Shear Test Data for Investigating Seismic Precursors to Shear Failure of Fractures

This dataset includes results of direct shear tests to investigate the mechanical and geophysical response of dry and saturated fractures in Indiana limestone and Sierra White granite. Direct shear tests were performed on tensile-induced fractures in Indiana limestone and Sierra White granite in a custom water-pressurized chamber. The provided Excel files include the representative seismic wave signals and the normalized wave amplitudes of ultrasonic wave transducers. A link to the published journal article presenting the data and describing the experiment in detail is provided as well.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the evolution of elastic properties during laboratory stick‐slip experiments spanning the transition from slow slip to dynamic rupture

Abstract The physical mechanisms governing slow earthquakes remain unknown, as does the relationship between slow and regular earthquakes. To investigate the mechanism(s) of slow earthquakes and related quasi‐dynamic modes of fault slip we performed laboratory experiments on simulated fault gouge in the double direct shear configuration. We reproduced the full spectrum of slip behavior, from slow to fast stick slip, by altering the elastic stiffness of the loading apparatus ( k ) to match the critical rheologic stiffness of fault gouge ( k c ). Our experiments show an evolution from stable sliding, when k > k c , to quasi‐dynamic transients when k ~ k c , to dynamic instabilities when k < k c . To evaluate the microphysical processes of fault weakening we monitored variations of elastic properties. We find systematic changes in P wave velocity ( V p ) for laboratory seismic cycles. During the coseismic stress drop, seismic velocity drops abruptly, consistent with observations on natural faults. In the preparatory phase preceding failure, we find that accelerated fault creep causes a V p reduction for the complete spectrum of slip behaviors. Our results suggest that the mechanics of slow and fast ruptures share key features and that they can occur on same faults, depending on frictional properties. In agreement with seismic surveys on tectonic faults our data show that their state of stress can be monitored by V p changes during the seismic cycle. The observed reduction in V p during the earthquake preparatory phase suggests that if similar mechanisms are confirmed in nature high‐resolution monitoring of fault zone properties may be a promising avenue for reliable detection of earthquake precursors.

Tinti, E.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Lunar seismicity, structure, and tectonics

Natural seismic events have been detected by the long-period seismometers at Apollo stations 16, 14, 15, and 12 at annual rates of 3300, 1700, 800, and 700, respectively, with peak activity at 13- to 14-day intervals. The data are used to describe magnitudes, source characteristics, and periodic features of lunar seismicity. In a present model, the rigid lithosphere overlies an asthenosphere of reduced rigidity in which present-day partial melting is probable. Tidal deformation presumably leads to critical stress concentrations at the base of the lithosphere, where moonquakes are found to occur. The striking tidal periodicities in the pattern of moonquake occurrence and energy release suggest that tidal energy is the dominant source of energy released as moonquakes. Thus, tidal energy is dissipated by moonquakes in the lithosphere and probably by inelastic processes in the asthenosphere.

Lammlein, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Seismic Study of the Dynamics of the Solar Subsurface from SoHO Observations

In collaboration with Dr. Baudin, we have developed and refined the new observational methodology for local helioseismology known as time-distance analysis. Global helioseismology study the solar oscillations as a superposition of resonant modes, whose properties (mode frequencies) reflect the global structure of the sun (sound speed stratification, rotation rate, etc). In contrast, local helioseismology look at the solar oscillations as wave packets whose propagation will be affected by perturbations of the media sampled. These local perturbations (sound speed or velocity flows) will modify the propagation time, that in turn can be used as a diagnostic tool for a given region. From a data reduction perspective, the processing of solar dopplergrams that result in time-distance maps, i.e. propagation times as a function of distance between bounces at the surface, is radically different from the methodology used for global mode analysis. We have, in a first step, further develop the programs needed to carry out such analysis. We have then applied them to NMI data set, and explore the trade-off between various averaging and filtering approaches - steps required to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of correlation maps - and the resulting stability and precision of the fitted propagation times. While excessive averaging (whether over space, propagation distance, or time) will reduce the diagnostic potential of the method, insufficient averaging lead to unstable fits, or uncertainties so large as to hide the information we seek. In a second phase, we have developed the analysis methodology required to infer local properties from perturbation in time propagation. Namely, we have developed time-distance inversion techniques, with an emphasis on inferences of velocity flows from time anomalies. Note also that during the period covered by this grant, all the investigators on this proposal (i.e., Drs. Baudin, Eff-Darwich, Korzennik, and Noyes) took part in the organization of the SOHO 6 /GONG 99 Workshop: Structure and Dynamics of the Interior of the Sun and Sunlike Stars, held on June 1-4 1999 at the Boston Park Plaza Hotel in Boston, Massachusetts, USA. it was very well attended by more than 160 participants from 26 countries from all over the world. The proceedings were published in two volumes as ESA SP-418, with Sessions I-III in Volume 1, and Sessions IV-VI in Volume 2 (1,000 pages in total). The complete contents are also included in digital form on a CD-ROM included with Volume 1. This CD-ROM also contains additional multi-media material that complements some of the contributions.

Korzennik, Sylvain G.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Virtual and super - virtual refraction method: Application to synthetic data and 2012 of Karangsambung survey data

Seismic refraction survey is one of geophysical method useful for imaging earth interior, definitely for imaging near surface. One of the common problems in seismic refraction survey is weak amplitude due to attenuations at far offset. This phenomenon will make it difficult to pick first refraction arrival, hence make it challenging to produce the near surface image. Seismic interferometry is a new technique to manipulate seismic trace for obtaining Green's function from a pair of receiver. One of its uses is for improving first refraction arrival quality at far offset. This research shows that we could estimate physical properties such as seismic velocity and thickness from virtual refraction processing. Also, virtual refraction could enhance the far offset signal amplitude since there is stacking procedure involved in it. Our results show super - virtual refraction processing produces seismic image which has higher signal-to-noise ratio than its raw seismic image. In the end, the numbers of reliable first arrival picks are also increased.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Southwest Wind Power R&D Test Site Development at the National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-12-00472 Final Report)

Southwest Windpower, Inc. (SWWP) has been designing and distributing small wind turbines for more than 22 years and is the recognized global leader in the design, manufacturing and distribution of small wind systems (400-3000 watts). The company has been a pioneer in the development of wind technology and has built and shipped more than 170,000 wind turbines to over 120 countries worldwide. Headquartered in Flagstaff AZ, SWWP has sales representatives in over 88 countries. Applications for SWWP systems include residential homes, commercial properties, micro grids, remote cabins, telecom transmitters, offshore platforms, water pumping and sailboats. In addition, U.S. Department of Defense uses SWWP’s products in Forward Operating Bases (FOB’s), USGS uses them for remote monitoring of glacier movements and the CIA uses them to provide power seismic monitoring. Today, SWWP plans development of new technologies to address distributed energy market needs and become even more aggressive in international markets. This strategy includes extensive Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (RDD&D) activities to improve existing production line into more simple, reliable, and cost-effective wind turbine systems. Important part of such activities is the field testing of the new systems, which should provide: (i) validation of the reliable operation of hardware and software; (ii) validation of numerical models of the system and its components; (iii) field comparison of various control and optimization strategies; (iv) customized reliability testing; (v) customized monitoring and analysis testing; and (vi) IEC certification testing (vii) filed demonstration of system performance and reliability. Such field testing facility should encompass multiple towers and appropriate data acquisition systems. SWWP is exploring to move part of the engineering department to Colorado, and execute its RDD&D strategies in this new location. Partnership with NREL will provide great insights into SWWP’s RDD&D processes and more efficient commercialization by utilizing NWTC as the field testing site, and working close with NREL personnel. NWTC is ideally suited to strain the design. NREL is very experienced with customized and IEC testing. During this project, Southwest Windpower aims to improve the value proposition of distributed renewable energy, and make it a competitive choice in the energy markets. As of today, more then 170,000 small wind turbines, manufactured in the U.S., are installed in more then 180 countries. With the improved value proposition, Southwest Windpower wants to create and address new market needs, substantially increase its sales domestically and internationally, which should have positive impact on the creation of American jobs, competitiveness of U.S. economy, export or U.S. products, and the use of renewable energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗