Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “severe”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multiobjective Optimal Controlled Variable Selection for a Gas Turbine–Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Using a Multiagent Optimization Platform

Hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell systems have immense potential for high efficiency in electrical power generation with cleaner emissions compared with fossil-fueled power generation. We report a systematic controlled variable (CV) selection method is deployed for a hybrid gas turbine–fuel cell system in the HyPer (hybrid performance) facility at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) for maximizing its economic and control performance. A three-stage approach is used for the CV selection comprising a priori analysis, multiobjective optimization, and a posteriori analysis. The a priori analysis helps to screen off several candidate CVs, thus reducing the size of the combinatorial optimization problem for multiobjective CV selection. For optimal CV selection, a transfer function model of the HyPer facility is identified. By considering several candidate models, the final transfer function model is selected using Akaike’s Final Prediction Error criterion. Experimental data from the HyPer facility are used to estimate the noise in the measurement data. For solving the combinatorial multiobjective optimization problem for CV selection, a multiagent optimization platform comprising simulated annealing, genetic algorithm, and efficient ant colony optimization algorithms is used. Pareto-optimal CV sets exhibit a high trade-off between the economic and control objective. The a posteriori analysis is undertaken for several top Pareto-optimal CV sets. An optimal CV set is selected that shows the best compromise between process economics and controllability under both nominal and off-design conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advances in Quantum Defect Embedding Theory

Quantum defect embedding theory (QDET) is a many-body embedding method designed to describe condensed systems with strongly correlated electrons localized within a given region of space, for example spin defects in semiconductors and insulators. Although the QDET approach has been successful in predicting the electronic properties of several point defects, several limitations of the method remain. Here, in this work, we propose multiple advances to the QDET formalism. We derive a doublecounting correction that consistently treats the frequency dependence of the screened Coulomb interaction, and we illustrate the effect of including unoccupied orbitals in the active space. In addition, we propose a method to describe hybridization effects between the active space and the environment, and we compare the results of several impurity solvers, providing further insights into improving the reliability and applicability of the method. We present results for defects in diamond and for molecular qubits, including a detailed comparison with experiments.

Chen, Siyuan [University of Chicago, IL (United St↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of Complex Intermediates in Solvent-Mediated Synthesis of Thiophosphate Solid-State Electrolytes

Lithium thiophosphates represent a promising class of solid Li + conductors for all-solid-state batteries. Scalable solvent-mediated synthesis routes for several Li–P–S ternary compounds have been reported, but little is known regarding the reaction mechanism of such pathways. This work demonstrates that solvent-mediated synthesis of lithium thiophosphate solid electrolytes from mixtures of Li 2 S and P 2 S 5 proceeds through a highly soluble P 2 S 6 2– intermediate. This intermediate exhibits virtually the same Raman spectra in several solvents including acetonitrile, methyl acetate, ethyl acetate, ethyl propionate, dimethoxyethane, tetraethylene glycol dimethyl ether, and tetrahydrofuran. Additionally, based on this universal intermediate, a general reaction mechanism is proposed for the solvent-mediated synthesis of several lithium thiophosphates including (LiPS 3 ) n , Li 2 P 2 S 6 , Li 7 P 3 S 11 , and Li 3 PS 4 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

DancePartner: Python Package to Mine Multiomics Relationship Networks from Literature and Databases

A goal of multi-omics experiments is to understand how mechanistic molecular biology is altered between conditions, typically a control group and experimental groups. Oftentimes this involves studying changes in biomolecule relationships (e.g. interactions, metabolic relationships) of several types of biomolecules (e.g. proteins, lipids, metabolites). Though several databases contain relationships between biomolecules, understudied species may have little to no relationship information in databases and thus must be mined from literature. There are several challenges to literature mining, including automated full-text extraction, duplicate biomolecule term collapsing, and implementing complex machine learning tools. To make relationship extraction more accessible to the community, a python package called DancePartner was developed to allow for the extraction of relationships from literature and databases, with functions to map biomolecule synonyms to standardized identifiers and visualize and characterize the resulting multi-omics network. Here, in this study, an example dataset involving Caenorhabditis elegans is presented, where relationships are mined from 1443 publications using DancePartner. These relationships are combined with relationships from KEGG, WikiPathways, UniProt, and LipidMaps, and visualized.

BERT↗
DOE OSTI2021

All-Atom Molecular Dynamics Simulations of the Temperature Response of Densely Grafted Polyelectrolyte Brushes

Water acts a “good” solvent for most polyelectrolyte (PE) systems due to its high dielectric strength. Theoretical and experimental studies have highlighted some remarkably unconventional properties of strongly water-swollen PE brushes such as a reduction in brush height with increase in temperature. However, an understanding of the atomistic-scale response of the grafted PE chains as well as the local arrangement and organization of the brush-supported counterions and water molecules to changes in temperature is missing. Here, we conduct an all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) study to probe the influence of temperature on the “microstructure” of densely grafted, fully ionized polyacrylic acid (PAA) brushes. The atomistic insights obtained from our study shed light on prior experimental observations and elucidate the key role played by changes in hydrogen bonding network in dictating the hydrophilicity of the brushes. In addition to the temperature-mediated reduction in height of the PE brush layer, we study the influence of temperature on several properties of the brush-supported water molecules such as the number distribution and kinetics of water-water and water-PE hydrogen bonds (HBs), mass density, orientational tetrahedral order parameter, and the activation energy associated with the self-diffusion of water. The effect of temperature on the properties of the brush-trapped counterions is also quantified via changes in their solvation structure, counterion-water radial distribution function (RDF), and the translational mobility. Our findings unravel several hitherto unknown phenomena such as the enhanced propensity for attaining PE brush-induced “water-in-salt”-like scenarios at elevated temperatures, and an increase in the activation energy for the self-diffusion of water with increase in the degree of PE brush-induced nanoconfinement (from ‘bulk water’ to ‘sparsely grafted PE brushes’ to ‘densely grafted PE brushes’). Further, we anticipate that this work will be helpful in improving our predictive capabilities of the temperature response of water-swollen PE brushes, which would be instrumental for better design of several PE brush systems used in a multitude of applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pd–Methyl Bond Energy─Property Correlations, Noncorrelations, Machine Learning Models, and Application to Polymerization Catalysis

Metal–carbon bonds are a key intermediate in a variety of homogeneous organometallic transformations and often determine the critical thermodynamics and kinetics of catalytic processes. Surprisingly, the influence of different ligands on metal–carbon bond strengths has been largely overlooked. Here, in this study, we evaluated nearly 700 experimental Pd–methyl complexes by calculating their bond dissociation energies using density functional theory (DFT) and compared these bond strengths to several fundamental molecular properties, and this revealed several surprising correlations and noncorrelations. Most surprising was that several fundamental properties, such as the bond length, bond force constant, and bond electron density, have no correlation with bond strength, despite these correlations often holding for main-group compounds. We were indeed able to identify key ligand-dependent chemical features/descriptors that provided a highly accurate machine learning model and provided insight into the general factors that control the Pd–carbon bond strength, such as radical delocalization and nucleophilicity. Insights gained from the Pd–Me bond energy analysis were then applied to CO migratory insertion steps that are part of copolymerization reactions.

binding energy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coupling High-Throughput Experiments and Regression Algorithms to Optimize PGM-Free ORR Electrocatalyst Synthesis

Over the past decades, significant improvement has been achieved in the performance of platinum group metal-free (PGM-free) materials as an alternative to Pt-based electrocatalysts for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR). However, further progress in ORR activity requires evaluation of precursors and synthesis approaches. In response to this challenge, we generated a first of its kind experimental data set of 36 samples using high-throughput synthesis and activity measurements. Several control parameters (e.g., Fe precursor identity, the precursor content, and pyrolysis temperature) were varied. We then developed several state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) based regression models to predict ORR activity, dependent on selected synthesis variables. Through an iterative algorithm, higher prediction accuracy (smaller root-mean-square error) was achieved. We identified that gradient boosting regression (GBR) and support vector regression (SVR), among several methods, work best for this data set. Aided by our ML-based surrogate models, we decided to alter catalyst synthesis conditions, which resulted in a 36% increase in measured ORR activity in comparison to the maximum ORR mass activity value of 21.9 A/g catalyst in the original data set. Overall, this combined experiment and machine learning approach represents a promising path forward toward developing highly efficient next-generation ORR electrocatalysts and, more generally, functional materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Polymer, Additives, and Processing Effects on N95 Filter Performance

The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) pandemic has highlighted the need for personal protective equipment, specifically filtering facepiece respirators like N95 masks. While it is common knowledge that polypropylene (PP) is the industry standard material for filtration media, trial and error is often required to identify suitable commercial precursors for filtration media production. This work aims to identify differences between several commercial grades of PP and demonstrate the development of N95 filtration media with the intent that the industry partners can pivot and help address N95 shortages. Three commercial grades of high melt flow index PP were melt blown at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and broadly characterized by several methods including differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and neutron scattering. Despite the apparent similarities (high melt flow and isotacticity) between PP feedstocks, the application of corona charging and charge enhancing additives improve each material to widely varying degrees. From the analysis performed here, the most differentiating factor appears to be related to crystallization of the polymer and the resulting electret formation. Materials with higher crystallization onset temperatures, slower crystallization rates, and larger number of crystallites form a stronger electret and are more effective at filtration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unique Diacidic Fragments Inhibit the OXA-48 Carbapenemase and Enhance the Killing of Escherichia coli Producing OXA-48

Despite the advances in β-lactamase inhibitor development, limited options exist for the class D carbapenemase known as OXA-48. OXA-48 is one of the most prevalent carbapenemases in carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections and is not susceptible to most available β-lactamase inhibitors. Here, we screened various low-molecular-weight compounds (fragments) against OXA-48 to identify functional scaffolds for inhibitor development. Several biphenyl-, naphthalene-, fluorene-, anthraquinone-, and azobenzene-based compounds were found to inhibit OXA-48 with low micromolar potency despite their small size. Co-crystal structures of OXA-48 with several of these compounds revealed key interactions with the carboxylate-binding pocket, Arg214, and various hydrophobic residues of β-lactamase that can be exploited in future inhibitor development. A number of the low-micromolar-potency inhibitors, across different scaffolds, synergize with ampicillin to kill Escherichia coli expressing OXA-48, albeit at high concentrations of the respective inhibitors. Additionally, several compounds demonstrated micromolar potency toward the OXA-24 and OXA-58 class D carbapenemases that are prevalent in Acinetobacter baumannii . In conclusion, this work provides foundational information on a variety of chemical scaffolds that can guide the design of effective OXA-48 inhibitors that maintain efficacy as well as potency toward other major class D carbapenemases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deacetylation and Mechanical Refining (DMR) and Deacetylation and Dilute Acid (DDA) Pretreatment of Corn Stover, Switchgrass, and a 50/50 Corn Stover/Switchgrass Blend

The most economical feedstock available to future lignocellulosic biorefineries may be a feedstock blend. Corn stover, switchgrass, and a 50:50 blend of corn stover and switchgrass were subjected to three different dilute alkali deacetylation conditions in a 90 L reactor prior to either mechanical refining (DMR) in a disc refiner followed by a Szego mill or dilute acid pretreatment (DDA) at five different conditions in a 4 L batch steam explosion reactor. The forty-five DDA and nine DMR slurries were subjected to high solids enzymatic hydrolysis at an enzyme loading of 15 mg protein per gram cellulose using Novozymes Cellic CTec3 (DDA) or a 4:1 mix of Novozymes Cellic CTec3:HTec 3 (DMR). The highest glucose yield was achieved using DMR processed corn stover from the high severity deacetylation condition (92 °C and 100 kg NaOH/ODMT) at 95.9% ± 0.8%, while the greatest monomeric glucose yields for switchgrass were between 75% to 80%. The glucose yields from saccharification of the 50:50 corn stover/switchgrass blend was approximately the average of the two individual feedstocks for both DDA and DMR processes. Statistical analysis showed that for a given feedstock type dilute alkali deacetylation severity had a significant impact (p < 0.05) on enzymatic hydrolysis yields, and for a given deacetylation severity the feedstock type had a significant effect on glucose conversion with the addition of switchgrass resulting in lower glucose yields. A blending strategy to maximize enzymatic hydrolysis sugar yields while reducing carbohydrate solubilization during the alkaline treatment step was proposed that allows deacetylation of feedstocks with different recalcitrance at optimal conditions for that feedstock, then blending prior to enzymatic hydrolysis.

BIOMASS FUELS,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND AN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Amorphization and Plasticity of Olivine During Low-Temperature Micropillar Deformation Experiments

Experimentally quantifying the viscoplastic rheology of olivine at the high stresses and low temperatures of the shallow lithosphere is challenging due to olivine's propensity to deform by brittle mechanisms at these conditions. In this study, we use microscale uniaxial compression tests to investigate the rheology of an olivine single crystal at room pressure and temperature. Pillars with nominal diameters of 1.25 μm were prepared using a focused ion beam milling technique and were subjected to sustained axial stresses of several gigapascal. The majority of the pillars failed after dwell times ranging from several seconds to a few hours. However, several pillars exhibited clear evidence of plastic deformation without failure after 4–8 hr under load. The corresponding creep strain rates are estimated to be on the order of 10-6 to 10 -7 s -1 . The uniaxial stresses required to achieve this deformation (4.1–4.4 GPa) are in excellent agreement with complementary data obtained using nanoindentation techniques. Scanning transmission electron microscopy observations indicate that deformation occurred along amorphous shear bands within the deformed pillars. Electron energy loss spectroscopy measurements revealed that the bands are enriched in Fe and depleted in Mg. We propose that inhomogeneities in the cation distribution in olivine concentrate stress and promote the amorphization of the Fe-rich regions. Finally, the time dependence of catastrophic failure events suggests that the amorphous bands must grow to some critical length scale to generate an unstable defect, such as a shear crack.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing the Disturbed Forest for the Trees: Remote Sensing Is Underutilized to Quantify Critical Zone Response to Unprecedented Disturbance

Understanding the severity and extent of near surface critical zone (CZ) disturbances and their ecosystem response is a pressing concern in the face of increasing human and natural disturbances. Predicting disturbance severity and recovery in a changing climate requires comprehensive understanding of ecosystem feedbacks among vegetation and the surrounding environment, including climate, hydrology, geomorphology, and biogeochemistry. Field surveys and satellite remote sensing have limited ability to effectively capture the spatial and temporal variability of disturbance and CZ properties. Technological advances in remote sensing using new sensors and new platforms have improved observations of changes in vegetation canopy structure and productivity; however, integrating measures of forest disturbance from various sensing platforms is complex. By connecting the potential for remote sensing technologies to observe different CZ disturbance vectors, we show that lower severity disturbance and slower vegetation recovery are more difficult to quantify. Case studies in montane forests from the western United States highlight new opportunities, including evaluating post-disturbance forest recovery at multiple scales, shedding light on understory vegetation regrowth, detecting specific physiological responses, and refining ecohydrological modeling. Learning from regional CZ disturbance case studies, we propose future directions to synthesize fragmented findings with (a) new data analysis using new or existing sensors, (b) data fusion across multiple sensors and platforms, (c) increasing the value of ground-based observations, (d) disturbance modeling, and (e) synthesis to improve understanding of disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Controls on the Delivery of Dissolved Organic Matter to Streams Following a Wildfire

Warmer and drier climate has contributed to increased occurrence of large, high severity wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, drawing concerns for water quality and ecosystem recovery. While nutrient fluxes generally increase post-fire, the composition of organic matter (OM) transported to streams immediately following a fire is poorly constrained, yet can play an integral role in downstream water quality and biogeochemistry. Here, we quantified the spatiotemporal patterns of dissolved OM (DOM) chemistry for five streams burned by wildfires in Oregon, USA in 2020. We sampled over a 24-hour storm event one month after the fire, revealing variable temporal behavior in DOM dynamics. DOM chemistry was directly related with burn severity spatially. Specifically, nitrogen and aromatic character of DOM increased in streams burned at greater severity. Our results suggest a spatial overprinting of DOM dynamics immediately following fire activity and highlight a key gap in our knowledge of post-fire DOM transport to streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Isoprene Emission Response to Drought and Heatwaves Within MEGAN Using Evapotranspiration Data and by Coupling With the Community Land Model

We introduce two new drought stress algorithms designed to simulate isoprene emission with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) model. The two approaches include the representation of the impact of drought on isoprene emission with a simple empirical approach for offline MEGAN applications and a more process-based approach for online MEGAN in Community Land Model (CLM) simulations. The two versions differ in their implementation of leaf-temperature impacts of mild drought. For the online version of MEGAN that is coupled to CLM, the impact of drought on leaf temperature is simulated directly and the calculated leaf temperature is considered for the estimation of isoprene emission. For the offline version, we apply an empirical algorithm derived from whole-canopy flux measurements for simulating the impact of drought ranging from mild to severe stage. In addition, the offline approach adopts the ratio ($f$ PET ) of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration to quantify the severity of drought instead of using soil moisture. We applied the two algorithms in the CLM-CAM-chem (the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry) model to simulate the impact of drought on isoprene emission and found that drought can decrease isoprene emission globally by 11% in 2012. We further compared the formaldehyde (HCHO) vertical column density simulated by CAM-chem to satellite HCHO observations. We found that the proposed drought algorithm can improve the match with the HCHO observations during droughts, but the performance of the drought algorithm is limited by the capacity of the model to capture the severity of drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Land‐Surface Conditions on the 2020–2021 Western US Drought

Abstract In summer 2021, 90% of the western United States (WUS) experienced drought, with over half of the region facing extreme or exceptional conditions, leading to water scarcity, crop loss, ecological degradation, and significant socio‐economic consequences. Beyond the established influence of oceanic forcing and internal atmospheric variability, this study highlights the importance of land‐surface conditions in the development of the 2020–2021 WUS drought, using observational data analysis and novel numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that the soil moisture state preceding a meteorological drought, due to its intrinsic memory, is a critical factor in the development of soil droughts. Specifically, wet soil conditions can delay the transition from meteorological to soil droughts by several months or even nullify the effects of La Niña‐driven meteorological droughts, while drier conditions can exacerbate these impacts, leading to more severe soil droughts. For the same reason, soil droughts can persist well beyond the end of meteorological droughts. Our numerical experiments suggest a relatively weak soil moisture‐precipitation coupling during this drought period, corroborating the primary contributions of the ocean and atmosphere to this meteorological drought. Additionally, drought‐induced vegetation losses can mitigate soil droughts by reducing evapotranspiration and slowing the depletion of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of soil moisture and vegetation conditions in seasonal‐to‐interannual drought predictions. Findings from this study have implications for regions like the WUS, which are experiencing anthropogenically‐driven soil aridification and vegetation greening, suggesting that future soil droughts in these areas may develop more rapidly, become more severe, and persist longer.

Jiang, Yelin [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Col↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull

Abstract The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season started quickly, with the earliest Category 5 on record (Beryl) and three hurricanes forming through 14 August. Following Ernesto's dissipation on 20 August, the Atlantic hurricane season became extremely quiet during the climatological peak of hurricane season, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm through 23 September. Several environmental factors likely contributed to this unexpected, prolonged lull. During mid‐to‐late August, subseasonal conditions were broadly favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, but a northward shift in African easterly wave emergence latitude yielded fewer tropical cyclone seed disturbances that also traversed unfavorably cool ocean water. During early‐to‐mid September, subseasonal variability driven by the Madden‐Julian oscillation was less conducive to hurricane activity, with several bouts of increased vertical wind shear across the central Atlantic. Throughout most of the lull, the tropical Atlantic was anomalously dry and subsident, suppressing hurricane formation chances. Plain Language Summary The 2024 North Atlantic (hereafter Atlantic) hurricane season was anticipated to be extremely active, with seasonal forecasts calling for a potentially historic season. Following a busy start including the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record (Beryl), the season became very quiet between 20 August–23 September, with only one Category 2 hurricane (Francine) and one tropical storm forming. Following the lull, the Atlantic became extremely busy again, with seven hurricanes forming from 25 September through the end of the season–the most on record for this period. This paper focuses on the surprising lull and attributes it to several different factors, including a late‐August northward shift in African easterly wave tracks (organized thunderstorm complexes spanning thousands of kilometers that often serve as Atlantic hurricane seeds). This northward shift brought these systems out over colder water and into a drier airmass, suppressing their hurricane formation chances. During the first 3 weeks of September, a large‐scale tropical phenomenon known as the Madden‐Julian oscillation, resulted in increased sinking motion, drier mid‐levels and increased vertical wind shear–all of which typically reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Overall, the lull demonstrates how seed disturbances and other environmental factors can strongly modulate aggregate seasonal tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting agencies, which called for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Factors reducing storm count included a northward shift in African easterly waves, broad‐scale subsidence, and reduced mid‐level moisture

Klotzbach, P J↗