Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “solar variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2022 Edition

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2021, and is based on data from roughly 2.5 million systems. New to the report this year is an expanded coverage of paired PV-plus-storage systems, including details on system design and pricing trends. The report describes trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state, including preliminary data for first half of 2022 -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of system parameters and geospatial variables on the reliability of residential systems with PV and energy storage

A reliable power supply is the foundation of modern society, enabling technologies used to function within a society. Residential systems are places where the end users directly consume power, enabling technologies to sustain life. With the emergence of behind-the-meter resources, the end-users have some control over power supply reliability. The intermittency and variability of these resources impact residential system reliability. In this work, we study the reliability performance of a grid-supplemented residential system with behind-the-meter Distributed Energy Resources(DER) subject to various system parameters and geospatial variables. We propose a multistate reliability model for the behind-the-meter microinverter-based Photo Voltaic (PV) system and integrated inverter-based energy storage (ES) system. A sequential Monte Carlo method is then presented to evaluate the reliability indices for the residential system with behind-the-meter DERs as the main supply and the grid as the backup. The sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the reliability performance of the residential model at the top 100 populous counties of the United States, where actual load and solar irradiance data at the counties is used. In the analysis, the sensitivity of indices to system parameters such as DER size and the sensitivity of the indices to climate zone and gross horizontal irradiation (GHI), which affects the load conditions and the PV output of the residential system, is performed. The analysis results show that the system parameters and the geospatial variables significantly impact the residential system’s reliability. The insights from this analysis will be of immense value to the distribution system planners to provide zone-specific guidelines for DER system sizing and toward the evolution of utility business models. Finally, the methodology developed can be used to extend the analysis to other locations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

WO 3 /CuWO 4 Ratio Controls Open-Circuit Photovoltage and Photocurrent in Type II Heterojunction Solar Fuel Photoelectrodes

WO 3 /CuWO 4 photoelectrodes for the oxygen evolution reaction benefit from a type II heterojunction for charge separation. However, the impact of the WO 3 /CuWO 4 ratio on the photocurrent and the photovoltage is not clear. To probe the effect of composition, Cu x W 1-x O y thin films with variable W:Cu ratio were prepared on FTO by reactive magnetron co-sputtering of W and Cu, followed by air annealing at 500ºC. EDS, XRD, Rietveld refinement, and Raman spectroscopy confirm the presence of crystalline WO 3 and CuWO 4 in the W rich films and increasing amounts of amorphous copper oxides in the Cu rich films. Bandgaps were determined by optical absorption spectroscopy, surface photovoltage spectroscopy (SPS), and photoaction spectra and are found to decrease from 2.7 eV to 1.2 eV with increasing copper oxide content. SPS reveals n-type semiconductor photoanode behavior for WO 3 /CuWO 4 samples and p-type photocathode behavior for CuO x rich films. Photoelectrochemical experiments confirm stable water oxidation with Faraday efficiency near unity for all W rich films and photocurrents that are increasing with CuWO 4 content. Optimal performance is seen for WO 3 /CuWO 4 mixed phases containing 47-75 mass% CuWO 4 . These compositions maximize charge separation at the type II heterojunction interface between the two materials. Additionally, according to incident photon to current efficiency (IPCE) data, the WO 3 improves photon conversion below 350 nm, while CuWO 4 improves conversion at 450-525 nm. Overall, this work shows for the first time how the WO 3 /CuWO 4 ratio controls the photovoltage and the photocurrent in type II heterojunction solar fuel photoelectrodes, and how copper oxides in the copper rich films severely degrade the performance. Furthermore, these results are useful in the context of bulk-heterojunction electrodes for the conversion of solar energy into fuels.

CuWO4↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating fine-resolution, regional outputs of a variable resolution global climate model

Climate models have been used to study water resources and regional hydrologic responses to climate change, but climate model outputs must be downscaled to provide relevant regional data. However, the accuracy of this regional data is limited by uncertainties across and within downscaling methods, uncertainty across global outputs, and discontinuities at downscaled boundaries. A new alternative to traditional downscaling is a variable resolution model that incorporates fine-resolution regions directly into a coarse-resolution, global climate simulation in order to capture contiguous dynamics across resolution boundaries. In this study, we used the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to generate one-eighth degree (14 km) fine-resolution outputs for the western U.S. and eastern China from 1970-2006. We focus our evaluation on precipitaiton, temperature, snow pack, solar radiation, and wind. We compare the model outputs with remote-sensing-based precipitation data, and both reanalysis and gridded weather station data for precipitation and temperature. VR-CESM generally has a cold bias in winter and a warm bias in summer in the western U.S., which compensate each other to reduce the annual bias. In eastern China, however, the sign of temperature biases are more consistent throughout the year with cold biases in the higher mountains and warm biases throughout most of the rest of the region. Precipitation biases are dependent upon reference data, and show slight overestimation in high mountain regions in both the U.S. and China with respect to gridded weather station data. Simulated snow cover in the western U.S. is reasonable compared to remote sensing data, but snow cover and snow water equivalent have larger biases when compared to reanalysis data. In eastern China there are widespread snow cover biases compared to remote sensing data. VR-CESM underestimates downward shortwave radiation to a greater degree in summer than in winter, and underestimates surface layer windspeed over mountains to a greater degree than in other areas. Comparison between VR-CESM and a coarser simulation (1-degree Beijing Climate Center model) shows reduced precipitation biases in the mountainous regions with finer resolution, indicating the value of variable-resolution modeling for reigonal studies.

Di Vittorio, Alan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially varying seasonal modulation to tidal stream energy potential due to mixed tidal regimes in the Aleutian Islands, AK

We provide an assessment of the tidal stream energy resource of the Aleutian Islands, Alaska via a validated barotropic tidal numerical model of the region. Eight island passes are identified as energy “hotspots”. The annual mean kinetic energy fluxes, KEF , calculated at each pass vary from 1000 to 11,000 MW, while the annual available energy, AAE , varies from 5 to 42 MWh m −2 . Notable seasonal modulation to monthly power density averages and ranges are noted at some passes and not others. Seasonal adjustment is linked to the semi-annual solar declination cycle which enhances (dampens) diurnal (D 1 ) tidal amplitudes in summer/winter (spring/fall) as well as the time-varying phase lag between D 1 and semidiurnal (D 2 ) fortnightly tidal cycles. Annual variability in monthly mean power density scales with the tidal current form factor, F u , with the largest seasonal change occurring for F u > 1 (D 1 dominated tide). The spread in power density over a month is on average smaller for passes with mixed tides (F u = 1 ) than those with D 1 or D 2 dominance, as changes to fortnightly phase lag become influential to net power density ranges when tides are mixed. This study outlines overlooked, but relevant, long-term modulation to tidal streams in regions with mixed tides.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Detailed Parameter Modeling of Open-Cycle Gas Turbines on Production Cost Simulation: Preprint

Flexible resources are increasingly important as variable renewable energy deployment in the power system increases. Although many systems are transitioning away from fossil fuels, open-cycle gas turbines are likely to play an important balancing role for some time, thus requiring accurate modeling of their operational parameters. This paper explores the impact of detailed representation of three operational parameters - start- up costs, run-up rates, and forced outage rates - in the production cost model of a system as it adopts higher levels of wind and solar. Using PLEXOS simulations of the NREL-118 bus test system, the study examines how more detailed parameter modeling affects outcomes such as the number of start-ups and shutdowns, ramping and total generation costs for open-cycle gas turbines, as renewable energy levels increase. The results suggest the value of detailed parameter modeling and continued research on combustion turbines' ability to provide flexibility.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective properties of semitransparent radiative cooling materials with spectrally variable properties

Radiative cooling is a promising solid-state, non-vapor-compression technology for passive refrigeration and air conditioning. Although this phenomenon occurs naturally, achieving a significant amount of cooling to make it a technically and economically viable technology requires highly engineered, spectrally selective radiative surfaces. These characteristics make radiative cooling difficult to estimate, particularly when it is integrated with other systems such as photovoltaic panels or building envelopes. The complexity further increases when the substrate also participates in the radiative cooling (along with the radiative coating). Energy estimation is becoming increasingly critical because of the recent focus on the semitransparent radiative coatings that transmit a variety of colors to enhance the aesthetic appeal of the system. In this work, we propose an iterative method to calculate the effective radiative properties, which provides the same net radiative cooling that would be observed using the spectral properties at both the coating and substrate surfaces. Compared to traditional methods that rely on either computationally expensive full spectral analysis or methods for averaging each radiative surface parameter locally, our proposed method focuses on calculating effective properties that provide the same the net cooling effect as a full spectral analysis by accounting the emissivity, absorptivity, and transmissivity collectively, thereby providing an overall estimation error of less than 0.2%. We believe that this study will be beneficial to the engineering communities that employ complex simulation codes and require lumped solar and thermal radiation related parameters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weather data at The Morton Arboretum 2017-2023

We have been monitoring long-term weather patterns using two weather stations at The Morton Arboretum to link environmental conditions to tree growth and other tree responses. This data package contains weather data at The Morton Arboretum from 2017-08-23 to 2023-12-31; data is located in the "MortonWeatherData2017_2023.csv" file. The two weather stations are located on each side of The Arboretum (e.g., the Nursery station on the East side and the Ware Field station on the West side; the two weather stations are 3.23 km apart and coordinates are included in the "Location_metadata.csv" file). Measured variables include rain accumulation, air temperature, relative humidity, three soil moisture/temperature measurements at various depths (10, 30, and 50 cm for the Nursery weather station, and 10, 25, and 50 cm for the Ware Field), solar radiation, saturation vapor pressure, and vapor pressure deficit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilience in an Evolving Electrical Grid

Fundamental shifts in the structure and generation profile of electrical grids are occurring amidst increased demand for resilience. These two simultaneous trends create the need for new planning and operational practices for modern grids that account for the compounding uncertainties inherent in both resilience assessment and increasing contribution of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources. This work reviews the research work addressing the changing generation profile, state-of-the-art practices to address resilience, and research works at the intersection of these two topics in regards to electrical grids. The contribution of this work is to highlight the ongoing research in power system resilience and integration of variable inverter-based renewable energy sources in electrical grids, and to identify areas of current and further study at this intersection. Areas of research identified at this intersection include cyber-physical analysis of solar, wind, and distributed energy resources, microgrids, network evolution and observability, substation automation and self-healing, and probabilistic planning and operation methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Performance of a Circular Economy for Wind Energy Technologies: A Summary of Three Analytical Tools

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources and presents opportunities for addressing series of economic and environmental objectives at local, regional, and national levels. Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. As a result, it is important to evaluate the performance and tradeoffs associated with circular economy transitions. This poster summaries three previously published analytical tools that were used to assess the performance of developing a circular economy for wind energy technologies: the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database (REMPD), a circular economy agent-based model for wind blades (CE Wind ABM), and the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework. The REMPD is a comprehensive database of materials used in wind and solar plants, including material quantities and physical materials availability. The CE Wind ABM allows us to understand how wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors influence wind blade circularity and evaluate the impact of regional variables (e.g., logistics and transportation). And, the CELAVI framework is a modular framework that can be used to evaluate the impacts associated with circular economy transitions. These three analytical tools have been applied to evaluate circular economy transitions for wind energy technologies and they could be expanded to other technologies and products.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic controls on the synthesis, structure and reactivity of materials for energy (Final Report)

The major objectives have been: a) to advance and use unique calorimetric capabilities to determine the energetics of oxide and other materials having possible energy applications, with an emphasis on new materials for batteries, fuel cells and solar energy conversion, b) to understand, in terms of both macroscopic energetics and microscopic structure and bonding, the interplay of defect chemistry, oxidation-reduction, and size effects at the bulk and nanoscale in determining materials properties. This project emphasizes mixed ionic-electronic conduction materials containing transition metals of variable valence, especially perovskites and lithium containing phases, with M = Mn, Fe, Co, Ni. The thermochemistry of new families of complex halide, chalcogenide, nitride and hybrid (organic-inorganic) perovskite materials were explored. The major and unique technique employed is high temperature oxide melt solution calorimetry, with careful attention given to materials synthesis and characterization. The thermochemical studies will be coupled with structural studies, especially to characterize order-disorder phenomena by in situ high temperature diffraction techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A framework for understanding efficient diurnal CO 2 reduction using Si and GaAs photocathodes

Integrated solar fuels and photoelectrochemical (PEC) CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) are promising pathways toward producing value-added chemicals from CO 2 . However, improvements are needed in activity and selectivity as well as in fundamental understanding of device behavior to engender wide deployment. Here, we report two single-junction, integrated photocathodes for PEC CO 2 R based on TOPCon Si and GaAs substrates, which achieve -10 mA cm -2 at -0.33 V vs. RHE with 41% selectivity to C 2+ products and at -0.03 V vs. RHE with 27% selectivity to C 2+ products, respectively. We investigated the viability of a light-mediated strategy to direct selectivity in buried-junction PEC devices and confirmed that these devices could be optimized independently and described by the physics-based models of the individual components. Finally, we designed a framework to assess operational modes for PEC CO 2 R devices and demonstrated this framework under continuous galvanostatic control and variable illumination conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares

The use of wind power has grown strongly in recent years and is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Solar power is also expected to increase significantly. In a power system, a continuous balance is maintained between total production and demand. This balancing is currently mainly managed with conventional power plants, but with larger amounts of wind and solar power, other sources will also be needed. Interesting possibilities include continuous control of wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and other demand resources with flexibility potential. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the different challenges and future possibilities in six systems concerning how to keep a continuous balance in the future with significantly larger amounts of variable renewable power production. A realistic understanding of how these systems plan to handle continuous balancing is central to effectively develop a carbon-dioxide-free electricity system of the future. The systems included in the overview are the Nordic synchronous area, the island of Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula, Texas (ERCOT), the central European system, and Great Britain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Surface Radiation Balance Dataset from Siple Dome in West Antarctica for Atmospheric and Climate Model Evaluation

Abstract A field campaign at Siple Dome in West Antarctica during the austral summer 2019/20 offers an opportunity to evaluate climate model performance, particularly cloud microphysical simulation. Over Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves, clouds are a major regulator of the surface energy balance, and in the warm season their presence occasionally induces surface melt that can gradually weaken an ice shelf structure. This dataset from Siple Dome, obtained using transportable and solar-powered equipment, includes surface energy balance measurements, meteorology, and cloud remote sensing. To demonstrate how these data can be used to evaluate model performance, comparisons are made with meteorological reanalysis known to give generally good performance over Antarctica (ERA5). Surface albedo measurements show expected variability with observed cloud amount, and can be used to evaluate a model’s snowpack parameterization. One case study discussed involves a squall with northerly winds, during which ERA5 fails to produce cloud cover throughout one of the days. A second case study illustrates how shortwave spectroradiometer measurements that encompass the 1.6- μ m atmospheric window reveal cloud phase transitions associated with cloud life cycle. Here, continuously precipitating mixed-phase clouds become mainly liquid water clouds from local morning through the afternoon, not reproduced by ERA5. We challenge researchers to run their various regional or global models in a manner that has the large-scale meteorology follow the conditions of this field campaign, compare cloud and radiation simulations with this Siple Dome dataset, and potentially investigate why cloud microphysical simulations or other model components might produce discrepancies with these observations. significance statement Antarctica is a critical region for understanding climate change and sea level rise, as the great ice sheets and the ice shelves are subject to increasing risk as global climate warms. Climate models have difficulties over Antarctica, particularly with simulation of cloud properties that regulate snow surface melting or refreezing. Atmospheric and climate-related field work has significant challenges in the Antarctic, due to the small number of research stations that can support state-of-the-art equipment. Here we present new data from a suite of transportable and solar-powered instruments that can be deployed to remote Antarctic sites, including regions where ice shelves are most at risk, and we demonstrate how key components of climate model simulations can be evaluated against these data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Onset of magma ocean solidification on Mars inferred from Mn-Cr chronometry

The mantle of Mars probably differentiated through the crystallization of a magma ocean during the first tens of million years (Ma) of Solar System evolution. However, the exact timescale of large-scale silicate differentiation of the martian mantle is debated, and in particular, it remains unclear when differentiation commenced. In this paper, we applied the short-lived 53 Mn- 53 Cr system to martian meteorites in order to date the onset of large-scale mantle differentiation on Mars. The new Cr isotope data demonstrate that martian meteorites exhibit no resolvable radiogenic 53 Cr variations, and instead have a uniform +20.2±1.2 (95% conf.) parts-per-million excess in 53 Cr/ 52 Cr relative to the terrestrial mantle. The investigated groups of martian meteorites are lithologically varied and derive from diverse mantle sources that probably had variable Mn/Cr. Hence, the lack of 53 Cr variability among martian meteorites demonstrates that silicate differentiation on Mars occurred after the extinction of 53 Mn. Provided that the sources of the martian meteorites have Mn/Cr variations that are typical of the terrestrial planets, this result implies that the onset of large-scale silicate differentiation must have occurred later than 20±5 Ma after Solar System formation. The onset of silicate differentiation on Mars inferred here is significantly later than time estimates for segregation of the martian core which conservatively occurred within <10 Ma after Solar System formation. Thus, the new Mn-Cr data imply that there was a small, but resolvable, time gap of at least 5 Ma between core formation and magma ocean solidification on Mars. If the age of core segregation is taken at face value, our results imply that the martian magma ocean remained mostly molten over several Ma. This inferred longevity of the magma ocean is inconsistent with thermal models predicting rapid (<1 Ma) solidification of the martian magma ocean. Although there is currently no unique solution to this conundrum, our results can potentially be explained by a protracted history of impact bombardment that delayed differentiation in a shallow magma ocean on Mars, or perhaps more readily, by the presence of an early and dense atmosphere that acted as an insulator and prevented the magma ocean from cooling quickly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗